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This is nothing to be gloating about.
Unfortunately my action has dried up. Bookmaker and Pinnacle undercutting me now.
Biden is under preforming betting lines(making him great value) based on polling while Clinton was massively over preforming betting lines based on polling.
Right now Biden stands as a 1 to 7 based off polling. Clinton was around 1 to 2. Off 538
I think Trump eats away 1 to 1.5 points but ill be shocked if he pulls off any surge up the polls like he did in 2016 after the final debate.
In 2016 he already had eaten off of Hilary's lead after the final debate.
Could have been Trump's surge just continued through election day and the polls could never capture it because people were voting.
If Biden loses this i will come to the other side on polling. Because there is nothing to show a Trump surge in the final weeks. Trump is gaining fractions of a point because Republicans are coming home but there is nothing to show a surge like we saw in the finals weeks of 2016.
If Biden loses this i will come to the other side on polling. Because there is nothing to show a Trump surge in the final weeks. Trump is gaining fractions of a point because Republicans are coming home but there is nothing to show a surge like we saw in the finals weeks of 2016.
When lines are moving against you, win or lose, you aren't going to be profitable. Or substantially less so then you should be...
The main aspect(outside of money management) is to get the correct line. If you are repeatedly getting a lower line then the line when the game/event is going off you need to make some changes to the algorithm or simply the data you are entering into your algorithm.
Trump is going to be in the 300s come election day. If you think he is value just wait and bet it then. To continue to chase on bad lines is not a good strategy.
This is just simply sports betting advice, so please take it as such.
The main aspect(outside of money management) is to get the correct line. If you are repeatedly getting a lower line then the line when the game/event is going off you need to make some changes to the algorithm or simply the data you are entering into your algorithm.
Trump is going to be in the 300s come election day. If you think he is value just wait and bet it then. To continue to chase on bad lines is not a good strategy.
This is just simply sports betting advice, so please take it as such.
I agree with you generally speaking, crudebar.
As you well know though, at least in sports gambling , there is reverse line movement, which entices more bets even though the manner in which people
are betting would imply just the opposite.
eg Virtually everyone is betting the favorite say a football game is say 7 1/2,
But instead of going higher, the line moves down to 7 and possibly even 6 1/2.
