Trentmoney 2009 CFB Futures Thread

[trentmoney]

just popped a few so i thought i would post them

all of my plays have been documented here since 2006.
i usually play a few title props hoping to hit one.
2007: i had LSU 12-1 as my biggest play
2008: UF +650 in '08 as my biggest play
season totals are 5-0 here
2007: ND u7.5/FSU u9.5
2008: ASU u8.5/Miami u8/Purdue u7

UF play last year was made as soon as futures came out at my book in mid-july as i was extremely bullish on them
LSU play in 2007 was made early august as the line just seemed too high, although i think it was set there because of jamarcus russell leaving...it closed at 6-1

i made these future plays now bc the lines seemed considerably off and they each represent value IMO
My dollar amount per unit is pretty sizeable (not that it matters) so while these look like throw-away plays the payouts are pretty substantial...just felt that should be stated.

0.2* Mississippi 60-1 to win 12*
0.2* Oklahoma St 60-1 to win 12*
0.1* Cal 75-1 to win 7.5*
all played at Sportsbook

Ole Miss finished the season on a 6-0 run, as well as claiming wins AT florida and AT Lsu and a bowl win vs TTech in Dallas, so obviously the talent returning is there. They also have a bona-fide star in QB Snead, who finished the season with 14-2 td/int...schedule is as easy as it gets for the SEC w/ no uf or uga and road games vs scar, vandy, auburn and miss st...stretch of 6 of 7 at home before closing season in-state vs bulldogs, toughest games vs bama and lsu are in oxford
Alabama is currently 15-1
LSU is currently 20-1
Miss is 3X/4X payout

Oklahoma St is cut and dry: the schedule and the odds!!
while oklahoma and texas play 6 true home games, ok st plays 8
while oklahoma plays byu neutral and AT miami, ok st plays uga and houston AT HOME
texas plays no one of note ooc, which could actually hurt them...
ok st has the opportunity to have a big ooc win vs georgia for bcs computer purposes, while texas doesn't
ok st's road schedule in b12 before bedlam consists of tamu/baylor/ia st... doesn't get any easier in conference than that
oklahoma plays top two nebraska and kansas from north ON ROAD
texas plays kansas from north home
ok st plays neither...
ok st gets texas at home for their 3rd straight away game (RRR/@ mizz/@ ok st)
oklahoma and texas are around 5-1/6-1
ok st is 10X/12X the payout

Cal has the best rb tandem in the country and is solid and deep along both lines...they also have one of the best secondaries in ncaa. the difference between them and the other two and why i put less on them is their QB situation and their schedule. they play 5 pac 10 roadies, and face oregon on the 2nd of b-2-b with minny...they also play @ ucla week after usc, so if they pull the upset they are in a prime spot the following week to get upset...they also close w/ a tricky b-2-b w/ stanford and wash, although they do get a week off in between. I could see this team losing 2 or 3 games, but if they pull the usc upset in berkley and finish w/ only 2 losses, that might be enough in a year where i don't see anyone from b10, acc, or big east figuring in the mix
oregon current odds 30-1
cal is 2.5X payout
also, a main component of this play revolves around the usc game...if cal is +7, +10, or +14 at home to aaron corp and that green usc defense, true ML odds would be anywhere from +225 to +550...I'd rather play the future prop @ 75-1, and i could still take the pts come game-time


Just another note: i know these teams have holes in them...they are LONGSHOTS!!! please don't clutter this thread w/ comments like "ole miss is gonna lose at vandy" or "ok st has no defense" or "tedford sucks"...any team can lose any game, and if they were "LOCKS" i wouldn't be getting the odds that i got!!!
I use my yearly threads for reference, and it's easy for me to find my threads all the way back to 2006...i keep all my info and plays in one yearly thread so i try to keep them as organized as possible.
thanks

good luck

 

[GoSooners]

Hey Trent, Ole Miss is gonna lose at Vandy, OSU has no defense and Tedford sucks.....Kidding!

I do agree with you about Ole Miss. I simply see no downside to this team other than they don't have the overall talent of an LSU or Florida. LSU is the darkhorse here in my opinion. Considering the quality of players that Miles has recruited to that school in the last few years, it rivals USC. If they can somehow put it all together they'll be dangerous. Even with am in-game idiot for a HC. And at the odds they are right now, may not be a bad play. They'll have 4 tough games at Georgia, At Bama, at Ole Miss and at home with Florida. They'll have to win 2 out of 4 of those games to get into the SEC title game provided they beat Ole Miss, who could drop a game in the SEC before they get to play LSU. So something tells me that game will be big. If LSU loses to Georgia, but can beat in my opinion a weaker Bama team on the road, that leaves Florida at home. This game will be the big measuring stick for LSU. The big question this year will be if Florida loses the SEC title game, will it still be an automatic trip to the BCS title game for the SEC winner? I know either OU or Texas are probably just going to have one loss or less. Most likely Texas because of their schedule. But if Florida loses and you have a one loss USC out west what do they do? USC has a pretty tough schedule this year. One loss could get them in if tied with an undefeated or one loss Big 12 team (most likely Texas) or one loss SEC team (most likely LSU or Ole Miss if they beat Florida). To me, this whole thing hinges on Florida. If they lose the SEC title game, then this BCS title race becomes wide open.

 

[trentmoney]

This is simply conjecture at this point, but i think OU and USC might lose 2 this year...both have extremely tough schedules: usc plays top 20 teams oregon, cal, ohio st, and notre dame ON THE ROAD and at night except for ND, and OU plays top 25-type teams byu, miami (i think they should be ranked), nebraska and kansas on the road as well as neutral vs texas...and not to get into an x's and o's discussion but if their new o-line struggles i'm curious to see how bradford does with pressure in his face this season...that program has been through a lot the last few years (usc blowout/boise st miracle/w vir blowout/ and losing RRR and NC game last yr)...being an outsider i have no idea what's going on locally/alumni/etc. but i'm curious how they respond this year

the ole miss play is basically set up with those odds to hedge if they face gators in sec title game or a play if tebow breaks his leg mid-season...

 

[GoSooners]

This is simply conjecture at this point, but i think OU and USC might lose 2 this year...both have extremely tough schedules: usc plays top 20 teams oregon, cal, ohio st, and notre dame ON THE ROAD and at night except for ND, and OU plays top 25-type teams byu, miami (i think they should be ranked), nebraska and kansas on the road as well as neutral vs texas...and not to get into an x's and o's discussion but if their new o-line struggles i'm curious to see how bradford does with pressure in his face this season...that program has been through a lot the last few years (usc blowout/boise st miracle/w vir blowout/ and losing RRR and NC game last yr)...being an outsider i have no idea what's going on locally/alumni/etc. but i'm curious how they respond this year

the ole miss play is basically set up with those odds to hedge if they face gators in sec title game or a play if Tebow breaks his leg mid-season...

Trent...I've got OU pegged for two losses. Don't ask me which ones. Their schedule just isn't condusive to having an undefeated season or even a one loss season. I wouldn't feel comfortable with it, even with last years team. And I don't care what anybody says on here, with that schedule they WILL struggle with a new OL and WR's. But a disappointing season isn't going to have any affect on OU as far as Alumni etc go. OU has played in the BCS title game 3 of the last 6 years. They didn't win, but really, what more can you ask out of your coach and program. I can think of 119 other schools who would kill to have that problem.. As for USC I'm not really sure about what kind of season they're going to have. All I know is they are on the hard year of their schedule..And it also doesn't favor them going undefeated. And if they should do like they did last season and the one before, and lose a game they aren't suppose to lose, they could really be in trouble with road games against ND, Oregon and Cal on their schedule. Do you think anybody from the Big 10 or ACC has a chance to get there?

 

[Conan]

just popped a few so i thought i would post them

all of my plays have been documented here since 2006.
i usually play a few title props hoping to hit one.
2007: i had LSU 12-1 as my biggest play
2008: UF +650 in '08 as my biggest play
season totals are 5-0 here
2007: ND u7.5/FSU u9.5
2008: ASU u8.5/Miami u8/Purdue u7

UF play last year was made as soon as futures came out at my book in mid-july as i was extremely bullish on them
LSU play in 2007 was made early august as the line just seemed too high, although i think it was set there because of jamarcus russell leaving...it closed at 6-1

i made these future plays now bc the lines seemed considerably off and they each represent value IMO
My dollar amount per unit is pretty sizeable (not that it matters) so while these look like throw-away plays the payouts are pretty substantial...just felt that should be stated.

0.2* Mississippi 60-1 to win 12*
0.2* Oklahoma St 60-1 to win 12*
0.1* Cal 75-1 to win 7.5*
all played at Sportsbook

Ole Miss finished the season on a 6-0 run, as well as claiming wins AT florida and AT Lsu and a bowl win vs TTech in Dallas, so obviously the talent returning is there. They also have a bona-fide star in QB Snead, who finished the season with 14-2 td/int...schedule is as easy as it gets for the SEC w/ no uf or uga and road games vs scar, vandy, auburn and miss st...stretch of 6 of 7 at home before closing season in-state vs bulldogs, toughest games vs bama and lsu are in oxford
Alabama is currently 15-1
LSU is currently 20-1
Miss is 3X/4X payout

Oklahoma St is cut and dry: the schedule and the odds!!
while oklahoma and texas play 6 true home games, ok st plays 8
while oklahoma plays byu neutral and AT miami, ok st plays uga and houston AT HOME
texas plays no one of note ooc, which could actually hurt them...
ok st has the opportunity to have a big ooc win vs georgia for bcs computer purposes, while texas doesn't
ok st's road schedule in b12 before bedlam consists of tamu/baylor/ia st... doesn't get any easier in conference than that
oklahoma plays top two nebraska and kansas from north ON ROAD
texas plays kansas from north home
ok st plays neither...
ok st gets texas at home for their 3rd straight away game (RRR/@ mizz/@ ok st)
oklahoma and texas are around 5-1/6-1
ok st is 10X/12X the payout

Cal has the best rb tandem in the country and is solid and deep along both lines...they also have one of the best secondaries in ncaa. the difference between them and the other two and why i put less on them is their QB situation and their schedule. they play 5 pac 10 roadies, and face oregon on the 2nd of b-2-b with minny...they also play @ ucla week after usc, so if they pull the upset they are in a prime spot the following week to get upset...they also close w/ a tricky b-2-b w/ stanford and wash, although they do get a week off in between. I could see this team losing 2 or 3 games, but if they pull the usc upset in berkley and finish w/ only 2 losses, that might be enough in a year where i don't see anyone from b10, acc, or big east figuring in the mix
oregon current odds 30-1
cal is 2.5X payout
also, a main component of this play revolves around the usc game...if cal is +7, +10, or +14 at home to aaron corp and that green usc defense, true ML odds would be anywhere from +225 to +550...I'd rather play the future prop @ 75-1, and i could still take the pts come game-time


Just another note: i know these teams have holes in them...they are LONGSHOTS!!! please don't clutter this thread w/ comments like "ole miss is gonna lose at vandy" or "ok st has no defense" or "tedford sucks"...any team can lose any game, and if they were "LOCKS" i wouldn't be getting the odds that i got!!!
I use my yearly threads for reference, and it's easy for me to find my threads all the way back to 2006...i keep all my info and plays in one yearly thread so i try to keep them as organized as possible.
thanks

good luck

Very good post.
Good luck.

Just one question.
Do you see the lines moving significantly by the middle of August during fall practices involving any of the teams you speak of? I'd like to take a little better look at Riley and maybe sneak in a little more action if he looks like he can handle the job. It's been a long time since the Bears beat USC and this might be the best shot they will get for a while. (etc.)

 

[trentmoney]

Very good post.
Good luck.

Just one question.
Do you see the lines moving significantly by the middle of August during fall practices involving any of the teams you speak of? I'd like to take a little better look at Riley and maybe sneak in a little more action if he looks like he can handle the job. It's been a long time since the Bears beat USC and this might be the best shot they will get for a while. (etc.)

actually, i do which is why i played them now.
every one who has an early top 25 out has miss and ok st in top 10. i've seen as high as 4 and 6 even...

as for cal, i'm still confused as to why and/or how riley hasn't cemented that job...is he really not that good?? while i'm all for competition, i would think it would help if tedford named him starter and he was able to go into fall camp as the leader at that position. that's one thing i will say for nick saban, as much as i don't like him as a person. him not only naming mcelroy as starter already, but heaping compliments and praise on him is a subtle yet genius coaching move imo that will get overlooked "in the boxscore"
but yes, with cal ranked top 15 i would think the line would go down...greek has them @ 50-1, sportsbook 75-1 is all i've seen so far but with the leading "non big 3" heisman hopeful in Best and a lofty ranking i don't think you'll see those numbers by august

good luck

 

[Conan]

I heard Riley had a real good spring according to observers but was one of those observers Tedford? Hard to say what he's thinking. Riley was in and out of Tedford's doghouse 1/2 of last year. That's why Tedford doesn't trust him.

A frustrating decision for me too but as you pointed out it's pretty cheap now.
Couple of bones today could be worth 10 or 15 dimes later.

 

[trentmoney]

I heard Riley had a real good spring according to observers but was one of those observers Tedford? Riley was in and out of Tedford's doghouse 1/2 of last year. That's why Tedford doesn't trust him.

A frustrating decision for me too but as you pointed out it's pretty cheap now.
Couple of bones now could be worth 10-15 dimes later.

now 60-1 @ SB and still 50-1 @ greek

i have a feeling this season could be an odd one for CFB...Gators look great, but what if Tebow carries the ball another 200 times this season?? he's got almost 500 carries in his career...seems like only an injury could slow this team down...
as for the other teams, when did usc have this many question marks and facing a schedule like that??
i don't see anyone from acc, b10 or big east involved, but if the b12 south beats itself up again, maybe w/ some help from the north division as well, this could be a year a darkhorse sneaks in...and the payouts make it worth the while imo

 

[GoSooners]

Trent...As far as the Big 12 goes.

I still think Texas has an excellent chance to get there. But getting the win is another story. I've seen them as high as 9-1. So those are nice odds imo.. The only problem I have with the Horns is their easy schedule. One little bump in the road and their probably done. And it's not condusive to doing well in the title game unless they're going up against somebody else who has had an easy road to get there. I get the feeling that Mack Brown is a lame duck coach this year and will be stepping down after this season and handing the baton to Muschamp. He loses McCoy and Shipley after this season, and he knows his BCS title chances will just about be nil.

As for OU, I don't think I've ever seen a team win the national championship with a rebuilt offensive line. My feeling is they'll at least lose one game that they're expected to win. Probably against either Kansas or Nebraska. Maybe even at home against OSU. It's happened before. The Texas game is close to a tossup. It's just a matter of how fast OU's O-Line matures. I also think Bradford has a higher chance of getting hurt than Tebow. Tebow is a pretty stout player. Bradford isn't. And he's also not much of a scrambler. So I'm kind of afraid for him this season in losing his blindside tackle and most of the line that he's worked together with for 2 years. There's lot's of trust lost there.

OSU will be a dangerous team if they can jumpstart their season with a win over Georgia. If we should get into another 3 way tie in the Big 12 between these teams, something tells me if OU loses 2 games this season, OSU will win out by being the highest rated team because of their schedule and winning the tiebreaker over Texas. So you may not have too bad of a bet there. Texas basically has no room for error with their cupcake schedule.

 

[Conan]

Wagerstreet - CAL 80-1

 

[trentmoney]

Wagerstreet - CAL 80-1

Run, Conan, Run..!!

 

[Conan]

Run, Conan, Run..!!

I'll be right in line first behind Tedford to ring Riley's neck if he screws up. They are deep and wide and if Best can make it through the year unharmed it's got a shot.

 

[trentmoney]

I'll be right in line first behind Tedford to ring Riley's neck if he screws up. They are deep and wide and if Best can make it through the year unharmed it's got a shot.

First stockholder's meeting will be held on sunday, sept 27...

cal will have just played @ oregon and usc will be 2 games removed from @ ohio st and preparing to travel to berkley in 6 days for an 8pm ET national TV showdown vs OUR CAL BEARS...!!!

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...As far as the Big 12 goes.

I still think Texas has an excellent chance to get there. But getting the win is another story. I've seen them as high as 9-1. So those are nice odds imo.. The only problem I have with the Horns is their easy schedule. One little bump in the road and their probably done. And it's not condusive to doing well in the title game unless they're going up against somebody else who has had an easy road to get there. I get the feeling that Mack Brown is a lame duck coach this year and will be stepping down after this season and handing the baton to Muschamp. He loses McCoy and Shipley after this season, and he knows his BCS title chances will just about be nil.

As for OU, I don't think I've ever seen a team win the national championship with a rebuilt offensive line. My feeling is they'll at least lose one game that they're expected to win. Probably against either Kansas or Nebraska. Maybe even at home against OSU. It's happened before. The Texas game is close to a tossup. It's just a matter of how fast OU's O-Line matures. I also think Bradford has a higher chance of getting hurt than Tebow. Tebow is a pretty stout player. Bradford isn't. And he's also not much of a scrambler. So I'm kind of afraid for him this season in losing his blindside tackle and most of the line that he's worked together with for 2 years. There's lot's of trust lost there.

OSU will be a dangerous team if they can jumpstart their season with a win over Georgia. If we should get into another 3 way tie in the Big 12 between these teams, something tells me if OU loses 2 games this season, OSU will win out by being the highest rated team because of their schedule and winning the tiebreaker over Texas. So you may not have too bad of a bet there. Texas basically has no room for error with their cupcake schedule.

That's how i'm figuring it:

osu 11-0 losing @ oklahoma 9-2 (that looks weird writing it...)
although cowboys haven't won since '02 after a run of 10 years with both squads alternating victories so the upset is due

Texas 11-1 but losing to ok st
computers pick the cowboys for b12 champ game
ok st beats kansas in title game
ok st vs Florida nat'l title game
ok st scores upset as 17 pt underdogs (imagine that..!!)

in reality an opening day win over georgia (SEC helping out b12!!) could help ok st with the computers, especially if uga improves throughout the year and finishes strong, and that could be the differnce between cowboys and longhorns in conference tie-breaker and vs the #3 and #4 bcs ranked teams after b12 title game

it's worth a shot

 

[GoSooners]

Texas 11-1 but losing to ok st
computers pick the cowboys for b12 champ game
ok st beats kansas in title game
ok st vs Florida nat'l title game
ok st scores upset as 17 pt underdogs (imagine that..!!)

in reality an opening day win over georgia (SEC helping out b12!!) could help ok st with the computers, especially if uga improves throughout the year and finishes strong, and that could be the differnce between cowboys and longhorns in conference tie-breaker and vs the #3 and #4 bcs ranked teams after b12 title game

it's worth a shot

Down boy! Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. This is afterall the Okie Lite Cowturds that we're talking about. But I do agree that this is a possible scenerio. And worth taking at least a small shot at. There is nothing that would make me happier than seeing the Horns lose another tiebreaker. This time to Okie Lite. No wait there is. Another tiebreaker to OU. Ha!...That's what I'm talkin' bout.

 

[trentmoney]

Down boy! Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. This is afterall the Okie Lite Cowturds that we're talking about. But I do agree that this is a possible scenerio. And worth taking at least a small shot at. There is nothing that would make me happier than seeing the Horns lose another tiebreaker. This time to Okie Lite. No wait there is. Another tiebreaker to OU. Ha!...That's what I'm talkin' bout.

it's may and i already have pending plays on the '09 season...
I'm ALREADY too far ahead of myself!!! @)

 

[SoonerBS]

I think Oklahoma State could lose their opener at home against Georgia. Do not pencil that in as an automatic win.

 

[trentmoney]

I think Oklahoma State could lose their opener at home against Georgia. Do not pencil that in as an automatic win.

well i guess you didn't read the part in my initial post that asked not to clutter this thread with statements like "so-and-so is gonna lose to so-and-so"...

 

[SoonerBS]

well i guess you didn't read the part in my initial post that asked not to clutter this thread with statements like "so-and-so is gonna lose to so-and-so"...

No, I didn't, so I feel fully justified in allowing myself that post . . . .

You're going to have to start giving me the Reader's Digest version, Trent . . . .

 

[Conan]

Curious about one thing Trent.

Have you looked over the list of teams with nice payouts that have the easiest schedules? Beyond UF who plays almost nobody away, and the shitty price on them, who else has it easy? Often the obvious doesn't work out that way. Like you said, the SEC might eat itself up and the B-12 could easily end up with a 1- or 2-loss champ which could leave the field wide open. (I just hope we are spared another Ohio St. melee.)

The last time I can remember anything real nice hitting for me was when I bet St. Louis in the NFL when Curt Warner first landed the starting job and then went on to beat the Titans in the SB. I got them at 40-1 but I could have gotten 80. I have become disenchanted with the NFL since then, ergo I am here and I like it.

$20 here, $50 there. One unit can go a long ways covering the bases, and if it pays off in dimes, hell it's worth the try.

(By the way, I'd also list Oregon at 50-1 but I hesitate because they have one mutha of a gauntlet to survive at the start of the season with a pretty green OL. If those tough games were played a bit later in the year I'd give them a much better shot. However... it's not unthinkable that they could overcome an early loss... provided that the rest of the Pac-10 does well in their OOC games. Kind of a big IF once again this year. I doubt any more east coast writers will stay up to watch the WC games. None of them could make a living being a tout.)