<TABLE class=tborder id=post5934516 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_5934516 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid">The post below was written by Don Dollars about 2 years ago and was very successful. Then he stoped posting. I tried to pick up the thread last week using these rules and had a loser. Although if I would have waited until Sun morning to make my pick I would not have had a pick for week 9. The criterion were not met. I rushed and forced a pick and it turned out to be a loser. I will have more patience from now on and will not make the pick until Sun morning.
Don Dollars' rules for Sucker Bets
Don Dollars:
Rule 1- when the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"? A good way to test this is to talk to friends that gamble on football games, yet they do not put in any time handicapping. They are truly the "public eye". Ask them which games they like this week. My guess is that they will be wagering on the games that appeared (at first glance) "too good to be true".
Rule 2 - determine the %'s of people betting on the game. Look for games that have around 70% or more of the wagers coming in on one side. Often times the game that you thought was "too good to be true" will be one that is getting POUNDED and has a high % of wagers. Those with too high of a % of wagers are SUCKER BET candidates.
Rule 3- Watch the lines all week. If a line opens at PHILADELPHIA -3 and everyone is pounding Philadelphia, often times the book will realize that they have put a sketchy line out and will raise it. In some instances this game may end up at Philadelphia -6 or some other # representing a need by the books to raise the line. Why would the books raise the line? If a disproportionate amount of MONEY is coming in on one side and they are NOT CONFIDENT in standing firm on the other side.....or if the SHARPS are siding with that team also.
So in Rule 3 what are we looking for? LINES THAT MOVE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. For example, if a line was Philadelphia -3 and 75% of the wagers were coming in on Philadelphia, however the line moved to Philadelphia - 2.5 ......A GIANT RED FLAG SHOULD BE RAISED. A "reverse" line movement is a key indicator of something sketchy going on.
On the same note, keep an eye on games that have one side being POUNDED, however the line stays the same. In the Philadelphia example, if the line stayed at Philadelphia -3 I would look into it further. I would ask: Why isn't the book raising this to -3.5? This is especially true with the KEY NUMBERS 3, 4, 7, 10, etc... In my opinion a line STAYING at -3, is even stronger than a line that moves from 5.5 down to 4.5. It isn't about the size of the movement, rather it is about the significance of the movement.
These two things happen when the % of wagers are disproportionate to the % of actual $$$ coming in on a side (largely in part to SHARPS), or a book wants to stand on a line.
RULE 4 - I know a lot of people do not believe in Rule 4, but I am a STRONG believer in it. It asks, WHAT DOES PINNACLE WANT ME TO DO? I believe strongly that Pinnacle is a genius book that uses influence to take leans on games. For instance if the line on the SAME game appears as such:
BetCris - Philadelphia -3
WSEX - Philadelphia -3
5-Dimes - Philadelphia -3
BetUS- Philadelphia -3
Pinnacle - Philadelphia -2.5
In this case I would be asking myself.....WHY IS PINNACLE BEGGING ME TO TAKE PHIALDELPHIA AT THEIR SITE? Anyone that is line shopping is going to take Philadelphia at Pinnacle.....and usually Pinnacle seems to have no problems with this.....and usually (keep an eye on it) Pinnacle ends up with the MONEY. It is a tough book to beat. *** On a more sophisticated note, keep an eye on the juice. Remember that Philly -3 at -115 is much, much worse than Philly -3 at -102.
Rule 5 - This is one of the most important rules, however seems to get neglected way too often.
WHAT IS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE TWO TEAMS PLAYING?
You are optimally looking for a team with a STRONG/POSITIVE public image to be playing a team with a WEAK/NEGATIVE public image. Often times these images are exaggerated by the public due to one or two performances that were either noteworthy or on a public stage. This rule leaves room for Subjectivity, but I'm afraid that is part of the game.
This is OBVIOUSLY not the only way to handicap, and I am not claiming that it is the best way to handicap, however I am saying one thing:
THIS IS ONE WAY TO HANDICAP GAMES. In most years, going against the public is going to be a good thing.
This is what I have defined (in my mind) to be a: SUCKER BET
I use several web sites to get my info and the problem I have is that the info varies widely from website to website. So I will state where I am getting my info from.
If anyone has a suggestion for a better website I am open to it.
SBR Lines which gives info from the major offshore books has the following games over 70% along with the opening lines
NE 73%
Miami 77%
Carolina 87%
Giants 76%
Baltimore 71%
Arizona 86%
SBR's opening lines are:
NE -4.5
Miami -9
Carolina -7.5
Giants +3
Baltimore +2
Arizona -9.5
Currently Pinnacle's lines are:
NE -3.5
Miami -9.5
Carolina -9.5
Giants +3
Baltimore -1
Arizona -9.5
So, right now it looks like NE may be the only game that could be considered as a trap game, based on the line movement. (Although several sites have NE opening at
-4 and still at -4. And 1 site with 16,500 bets placed on the game has NE as 60% of the bets.
So that's the picture right now. I'll update tomorrow.
<!-- / message --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid">
</TD><TD class=alt1 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right><!-- controls --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Don Dollars:
Rule 1- when the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"? A good way to test this is to talk to friends that gamble on football games, yet they do not put in any time handicapping. They are truly the "public eye". Ask them which games they like this week. My guess is that they will be wagering on the games that appeared (at first glance) "too good to be true".
Rule 2 - determine the %'s of people betting on the game. Look for games that have around 70% or more of the wagers coming in on one side. Often times the game that you thought was "too good to be true" will be one that is getting POUNDED and has a high % of wagers. Those with too high of a % of wagers are SUCKER BET candidates.
Rule 3- Watch the lines all week. If a line opens at PHILADELPHIA -3 and everyone is pounding Philadelphia, often times the book will realize that they have put a sketchy line out and will raise it. In some instances this game may end up at Philadelphia -6 or some other # representing a need by the books to raise the line. Why would the books raise the line? If a disproportionate amount of MONEY is coming in on one side and they are NOT CONFIDENT in standing firm on the other side.....or if the SHARPS are siding with that team also.
So in Rule 3 what are we looking for? LINES THAT MOVE IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. For example, if a line was Philadelphia -3 and 75% of the wagers were coming in on Philadelphia, however the line moved to Philadelphia - 2.5 ......A GIANT RED FLAG SHOULD BE RAISED. A "reverse" line movement is a key indicator of something sketchy going on.
On the same note, keep an eye on games that have one side being POUNDED, however the line stays the same. In the Philadelphia example, if the line stayed at Philadelphia -3 I would look into it further. I would ask: Why isn't the book raising this to -3.5? This is especially true with the KEY NUMBERS 3, 4, 7, 10, etc... In my opinion a line STAYING at -3, is even stronger than a line that moves from 5.5 down to 4.5. It isn't about the size of the movement, rather it is about the significance of the movement.
These two things happen when the % of wagers are disproportionate to the % of actual $$$ coming in on a side (largely in part to SHARPS), or a book wants to stand on a line.
RULE 4 - I know a lot of people do not believe in Rule 4, but I am a STRONG believer in it. It asks, WHAT DOES PINNACLE WANT ME TO DO? I believe strongly that Pinnacle is a genius book that uses influence to take leans on games. For instance if the line on the SAME game appears as such:
BetCris - Philadelphia -3
WSEX - Philadelphia -3
5-Dimes - Philadelphia -3
BetUS- Philadelphia -3
Pinnacle - Philadelphia -2.5
In this case I would be asking myself.....WHY IS PINNACLE BEGGING ME TO TAKE PHIALDELPHIA AT THEIR SITE? Anyone that is line shopping is going to take Philadelphia at Pinnacle.....and usually Pinnacle seems to have no problems with this.....and usually (keep an eye on it) Pinnacle ends up with the MONEY. It is a tough book to beat. *** On a more sophisticated note, keep an eye on the juice. Remember that Philly -3 at -115 is much, much worse than Philly -3 at -102.
Rule 5 - This is one of the most important rules, however seems to get neglected way too often.
WHAT IS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE TWO TEAMS PLAYING?
You are optimally looking for a team with a STRONG/POSITIVE public image to be playing a team with a WEAK/NEGATIVE public image. Often times these images are exaggerated by the public due to one or two performances that were either noteworthy or on a public stage. This rule leaves room for Subjectivity, but I'm afraid that is part of the game.
This is OBVIOUSLY not the only way to handicap, and I am not claiming that it is the best way to handicap, however I am saying one thing:
THIS IS ONE WAY TO HANDICAP GAMES. In most years, going against the public is going to be a good thing.
This is what I have defined (in my mind) to be a: SUCKER BET
I use several web sites to get my info and the problem I have is that the info varies widely from website to website. So I will state where I am getting my info from.
If anyone has a suggestion for a better website I am open to it.
SBR Lines which gives info from the major offshore books has the following games over 70% along with the opening lines
NE 73%
Miami 77%
Carolina 87%
Giants 76%
Baltimore 71%
Arizona 86%
SBR's opening lines are:
NE -4.5
Miami -9
Carolina -7.5
Giants +3
Baltimore +2
Arizona -9.5
Currently Pinnacle's lines are:
NE -3.5
Miami -9.5
Carolina -9.5
Giants +3
Baltimore -1
Arizona -9.5
So, right now it looks like NE may be the only game that could be considered as a trap game, based on the line movement. (Although several sites have NE opening at
-4 and still at -4. And 1 site with 16,500 bets placed on the game has NE as 60% of the bets.
So that's the picture right now. I'll update tomorrow.
<!-- / message --></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid">
</TD><TD class=alt1 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #fdde82 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #fdde82 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #fdde82 1px solid" align=right><!-- controls --></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
