tourney projections saturday edition *my have things changed*

[papicker]

these conference tournaments have confirmed one thing to me, most of these favorites have no killer instinct at all, i think this ncaa tournament will be completely wide open and this could be the year we have a champion from outta nowhere like arizona in 97 (i think 97) as a 4 seed. im gonna actually update every conference since there has been so much chaos lately. here it goes with the one bid leagues

here we go with the one bid leagues:

america east -- 1
a-sun -- ETSU
big sky -- portland st
big south -- radford
big west -- 1
colonial -- vcu
cusa -- memphis (logic would tell you memphis wins today but who really knows with these conference tourneys this year)
horizon -- butler and cleveland st (2)
ivy -- cornell
maac -- siena
mac -- 1
meac -- 1
mvc -- UNI (crieghton played way out with blowout loss)
nec -- robby mo (my alma mater actually!)
ovc -- morehead
patriot -- american
southern -- chattanooga
southland -- 1
swac -- 1
summit -- nd state
sun belt -- west ky

i have 22 teams from here 23 if tulsa wins

 

[papicker]

acc tournament

locks (6) -- unc, duke, wake, fsu, clemson, bc

bubbles (1): maryland -- beat puke

i just cant put maryland in the dance yet. they had a 7-9 conference record and lost to virginia and have some very ugly losses. they beat a team thats terrible away from home yesterday that probably is more likely to be bounced the first weekend then make the final 4.

6-7 bids

 

[papicker]

a10

locks (2) -- xavier,dayton

sorry templed i lied yesterday, i said if you beat x you would be good enough with your high rpi and tough ooc. you are not getting in if you lose to duquesne today. 4 a10s wont be in the dance although i think this is a pretty underrated league.

3 bids

 

[papicker]

big east

locks (7) -- ville, pitt, uconn, nova, quette, cuse, wvu

providence not even on the bubble, they are in the no chance in hell category right now.

7 bids

 

[papicker]

big 10

locks (7) -- michst, purdue, illy, wisky, ohiost, michigan, minny

bubbles (1) -- psu

this is where it gets interesting. psu has a poor showing yesterday and there were a ton of surprises, i have to think they are sweating right now. although big 10 has good computer numbers i think most people dont think this is a tough league and 8 of 11 teams might be a stretch. interesting to note that penn st lost at home to temple this year.

7-8 bids

 

[papicker]

big 12

locks (5) -- kansas, oklahoma, missouri, texas, ok st

bubbles (1) -- tamu

potential bid stealer -- baylor

baylor has the talent to win this today no doubt. if they do itll knock someone out. hard to see a & m getting in at this point, especially if baylor won today. i think conferences do matter no matter what the committee says.

5-6 teams from here

 

[papicker]

mwc

locks (3) -- byu, utah, sdst

i think this is pretty cut and dry, sdst has no sweating at all tomorrow. another underrated league here.

3 bids

 

[papicker]

pac 10

locks (4) -- washington, ucla, asu, cal

bid stealer potentially -- usc

i cant even put zona on the bubble they went 9-9 in a down conference and faltered down the stretch. usc would have a case for an at large if they lost today but i really think they need this win.

4-5 bids

 

[papicker]

sec

locks (3) -- ten, lsu, auburn

potential big stealer -- miss st

miss st still alive and is a threat to take this tourney. hard to see auburn not getting in, i guess the dumb south carolina homer wants to rethink his stupidity at this point, but his m.o. is making ridiculous claims on this site, so probably not.

3-4 teams

 

[papicker]

wcc

locks (1) -- zags

bubbles (1) -- st marys

this is where it gets interesting. st marys will be the toughest case for the committee. they played awful in the showcase game monday but hard to say they are not one of the best 34 with mills in there.

1-2 bids

 

[papicker]

wac

bubble (1) -- utah st

interesting case number 2. hard to see a 29-5 with a high rpi left out if they lost on another teams home court in their conference title game. a lot of utah st fans tonight i think, although im not 100% sure they are in if they lose tonight.

1-2 bids here

 

[papicker]

i have 62 in for sure, 8 that can still get in. i really hope maryland isnt rewarded for the win over wake forest yesterday, this team went 7-9 in the conference and has some ugly losses, they also have a loss to morgan st. if there are a lot of upsets in these conference tournies most of these bubble teams bite the dust. maryland will be 100% in if they beat duke today.

 

[Drunkn247]

wcc

locks (1) -- zags

bubbles (1) -- st marys

this is where it gets interesting. st marys will be the toughest case for the committee. they played awful in the showcase game monday but hard to say they are not one of the best 34 with mills in there.

1-2 bids

St. Mary's should be out...they played nobody besides Gonz and lost to them 3x...They have 1 win that is worth anything and that was against Utah st. If Mary's has a case then Arizona has a bigger one beating the Zags, Kansas, Ucla, Washington, and Usc

 

[CoolBreeze22]

ST. Mary's, Penn St., Florida, Arizona are all toast.

Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
Auburn
TexAM
Maryland
SanDiegoST last group of teams in

I agree 100%, Moutain West, Atlantic 10, CAA, and MAAC all very underrated Conferences.

I think they should cap the number of bids a league can receive. No more than half your league can make the NCAA tournament. NCAA is a Championship tournament, if you finish in the bottom half of your league do you really have a reason to be playing for a National Championship.

ACC- 6 bids max
Big East- 8 bids max
Big 10-6 bids max

Minnesota, MichiganTexAM, San Diego St. could all be in trouble if Baylor, USC, or Miss ST. win their tournaments.