OK, it looks like the consensus is on Rodgers, and admittedly, I initially thought it was a no brainer also. But let me play devil's advocate for a second and see if I can convince a few of you that it's not that no brainer.
Working off of what Jason said.....
The Chargers have been atrocious lately but let's keep in mind, those poor offensive performances have been against Kansas City and Denver, clearly superior defenses. The Miami Dolphins defense is horrendous, allowing 37 TDs this year (only four teams have allowed more). As Jason said, in all likelihood, this is the Chargers last game in SD and I think Rivers wants to go out on top (just look at the Rams on Thursday night). The crowd and the Chargers should be more fired up than any game this season. If I recall, the Chargers got banged up in mid November on a Monday night game against the Bears. But the following week he passed for 300 yards and 4 TDs against a lesser defense in Jacksonville. In fact, every time the Chargers have faced a defense as bad as Miami, Rivers has put up monster numbers. The Dolphins have been very bad recently, allowing 4 TDs each to Fitzpatrick and Manning. Rivers is actually having a good year as far as offensive numbers are concerned, averaging 306 yard and nearly 2 TD per game.
Now let's look at the Packers....
I think it would be fair to say that the Packers offense has been sputtering lately. Rodgers needed a Hail Mary in the Detroit game to give him respectable numbers. Without it, his stats would have had 212 yards and 1 TD (certainly not impressive). Against Dallas, they leaned on the run and led only 14-7 midway through the 4th quarter. Rodgers finished that game with only 218 yards and 2 TDs (again, pretty average numbers). Admittedly, the Raiders aren't great against the pass either (but certainly not as bad as Miami). But I think McCarthy will want to emphasize the run again (especially with rain in the forecast). I'm also not that impressed by the Packers WRs. Clearly the Jordy Nelson injury has knocked the WRs group down a notch or two. Davante Adams was never able to come close to filling his shoes, and this WR group in general, is pretty average. The Packers are actually a bottom 10 passing offense, averaging only 244 yards per game. They've won 3 of 4, but Rodgers has averaged only 226 yards in those games.
Thoughts?
Working off of what Jason said.....
The Chargers have been atrocious lately but let's keep in mind, those poor offensive performances have been against Kansas City and Denver, clearly superior defenses. The Miami Dolphins defense is horrendous, allowing 37 TDs this year (only four teams have allowed more). As Jason said, in all likelihood, this is the Chargers last game in SD and I think Rivers wants to go out on top (just look at the Rams on Thursday night). The crowd and the Chargers should be more fired up than any game this season. If I recall, the Chargers got banged up in mid November on a Monday night game against the Bears. But the following week he passed for 300 yards and 4 TDs against a lesser defense in Jacksonville. In fact, every time the Chargers have faced a defense as bad as Miami, Rivers has put up monster numbers. The Dolphins have been very bad recently, allowing 4 TDs each to Fitzpatrick and Manning. Rivers is actually having a good year as far as offensive numbers are concerned, averaging 306 yard and nearly 2 TD per game.
Now let's look at the Packers....
I think it would be fair to say that the Packers offense has been sputtering lately. Rodgers needed a Hail Mary in the Detroit game to give him respectable numbers. Without it, his stats would have had 212 yards and 1 TD (certainly not impressive). Against Dallas, they leaned on the run and led only 14-7 midway through the 4th quarter. Rodgers finished that game with only 218 yards and 2 TDs (again, pretty average numbers). Admittedly, the Raiders aren't great against the pass either (but certainly not as bad as Miami). But I think McCarthy will want to emphasize the run again (especially with rain in the forecast). I'm also not that impressed by the Packers WRs. Clearly the Jordy Nelson injury has knocked the WRs group down a notch or two. Davante Adams was never able to come close to filling his shoes, and this WR group in general, is pretty average. The Packers are actually a bottom 10 passing offense, averaging only 244 yards per game. They've won 3 of 4, but Rodgers has averaged only 226 yards in those games.
Thoughts?
Heynow,
Clearly every team that plays Carolina is treating the game as their Superbowl (the difficulty will continue to go up as they stay undefeated). The Giants certainly have a history of playing well in situations like this (not to mention that they desperately need this win also). Shy of the New Orleans game (and who hasn't scored well on them this year), the Carolina offense has not played that well on the road. Cam only got one TD against Dallas and threw for only 183 yards. Prior to that 217 yards and 2 TDs against the Titans (pretty average). Throw out one game versus the Giants defense (New Orleans) and they're a top 10 defense (only allowing 16 TD in 12 games). With Jonathan Stewart out, look for them to focus more on their pass defense.
Russell Wilson has passed for 16 TDs and no interceptions in his last 4 games and his average yards are near 300! And now he gets to play against the Browns (are you kidding me?!). The Browns have allowed 26 TDs (roughly two per game) and it will be more this game with the game in Seattle and the Seahawks favored by 15. Baldwin and Wilson have an incredible chemistry right now (expect more combos this game). Your situation is much more of a no brainer than mine.
Clearly every team that plays Carolina is treating the game as their Superbowl (the difficulty will continue to go up as they stay undefeated). The Giants certainly have a history of playing well in situations like this (not to mention that they desperately need this win also). Shy of the New Orleans game (and who hasn't scored well on them this year), the Carolina offense has not played that well on the road. Cam only got one TD against Dallas and threw for only 183 yards. Prior to that 217 yards and 2 TDs against the Titans (pretty average). Throw out one game versus the Giants defense (New Orleans) and they're a top 10 defense (only allowing 16 TD in 12 games). With Jonathan Stewart out, look for them to focus more on their pass defense.
Russell Wilson has passed for 16 TDs and no interceptions in his last 4 games and his average yards are near 300! And now he gets to play against the Browns (are you kidding me?!). The Browns have allowed 26 TDs (roughly two per game) and it will be more this game with the game in Seattle and the Seahawks favored by 15. Baldwin and Wilson have an incredible chemistry right now (expect more combos this game). Your situation is much more of a no brainer than mine.
BFL my friend, my analysis is this. To win at FF, you have to have and play the studs, and when you don't because you start thinking too much (we've all done that), it bites you in the ass
Rivers may have a better game, but what's more likely?
now, if the forecast is for torrential downpours and winds that will alter the passing game, that's different. But just your garden variety heavy rain, no problem
Rivers may have a better game, but what's more likely?
now, if the forecast is for torrential downpours and winds that will alter the passing game, that's different. But just your garden variety heavy rain, no problem
Well, I'll agree the risk/reward ratio is much higher with Rivers. The last time I went through this second guessing game, I got burnt bad by starting Rodgers vs Denver and sitting Rivers (he blew up for almost 500 yards and like 3 or 4 TDs that day). With that said, I had a good night with Bilal Powell yesterday and Witten and McFadden did as expected. It seems the prudent thing to do is to start Rodgers as I expect more of a workmanlike productivity out of him today (maybe mid 200 yards in passing and 2 TDs). The playoffs are not the time to roll the dice, especially if the rest of your team is solid (and mine is). My opponent is the one that needs to take the chances as his team is banged up pretty good (he needs Newton to have a stellar game). Rodgers it is.
How are you Willie? It's nice to hear from you. I hear you're getting better weather than we are here on the "Left" coast. Hope you and your family have a great holiday. If you ever get back out to Vegas, let me know. Would love to hit the craps table with you.
