totals as a capping tool (air force +9.5)

[winbig]

been studying this angle for a few weeks and the results have been very solid.

utah vs a.force total = 111

that's 2nd lowest total for a.force this season but stil very close to their season average vegas total (avg.total =117.5 in a.f. games).111 is also the lowest total posted for any utah game this season and way below their avg. vegas total this season (135.5).

this tells me that the linemakers expect this game to be played in a.force's slow pace fashion.

let's see how utah respond to that (expected) slow pace.

their lowest vegas totals this year :

120 at utah state = utah lost by 26, their worst game of the season.
129 vs webber state = utah won but did not cover, their only non-cover from december 11th to january 22nd (9 lined games)

as for air force, their lowest vegas totals resulted in covers.

110 - win by 24 vs miss (cover)
111 - loss by 4 at marquette (cover)
115 - win by 17 vs rutgers (cover)
115 - loss by 1 to st.marys (cover)
116 - win by 3 at byu (cover)

the linemakers lean on a.f. and under.

i will take a.force +9.5

 

[Coast2Coast]

nice piece of capping. thanks for sharing.

 

[travpollack]

Good capping Big, an interesting way to look at the game and I appreciate. I'm going to see about moving that line to +9 as we speak.

 

[Noreaga+]

good luck man, I see utah winning rather easily... i dont know how airforce is going to score... I think it will be over at the half. with airforce scoring in the low 40's for the entire game.

 

[winbig]

thanks for your comments guys. noreaga, you could be right, but i think this line is 9.5 for a reason. and that reason is: utah has won last 11 games by 10+ (double digits) and a recreational gambler (square) will say, 'hey, they only need to do what they have done in last 11 games - win by dd... this is a gimme!' but i dont think this will be easy at all, against a stingy af defense. remember this is a confy game and 9.5 is a lot of points to give to a solid team.also, af is 8-0-1 in last 9 and 11-1-1 ats in recent years vs utah. the game is underway. one of us will win, good luck !

 

[spindogg]

Nice analysis. I'm with you on Air Force. I'm hoping for a nice 48-43 Utah victory tonight. Good Luck

 

[unconscious]

Loving the over here @ 112

Beautiful writeup man.

unc

 

[coconutman]

Took force +10, looks solid.

 

[spindogg]

Be Nice if AF could score some points here. Down 11 with a little over 3 to go. No offense in the 2nd half.

 

[ApolloKid]

I think you (and I) had the right side tonight. By far one of the best indicators for picking out dogs for me is the game total. If you find games lined at 7 or under with a low total, even better because every half point is worth even more.

GL going forward.

 

[kidslick]

YESSSS

we had the right side but it lost thats how i feel

utah shot 80% from the field.........

yeahh 80

 

[BirdsFan21]

Had to make a double take on that FG % in the box score. Thats unbelievable. When was the last time you saw a team shoot 80%. They only missed six shots all game. SIX!

nice work though, just one of those rare occasions.

 

[spindogg]

I just noticed this morning that the Utes shot 80%. That is insane. It must be close to an all time record. Shows how slow paced the game was that they scored that few points shooting 80%. Amazing AF was only a 3 ball away from the cover.