Toronto in CFL

[KennyB]

Toronto -4' (Intertops). I think the spread should be 7-7'. I'll bite.

Parlay:

Toronto ML
V Tech ML

 

[HPark1]

Labour day classic there, careful anything goes. I've compared it to college rivalry games, throw out the records.

Personally favour Ti-Cats to pull the minor upset.

 

[Moves]

So why does that matter? Is it Labor Day for Hamilton and not Toronto?

 

[HPark1]

I don't think I said that Moves. Point is its a special game every year between bitter rivals. Its a bit different atmosphere, not just a typical game on the schedule.

If you look historically the home team has an outstanding record in these games.

 

[Moves]

I dont care if its Christmas and Santa Claus gives Hamilton a whole new team. Right now they suck and it would be shocking to see them get this game. It could happen but very very doubtful.

What you are saying is like saying the Detroit Lions play every Thanksgiving so they win that day every year which we all know they dont.

A team of football players plays the game not 30,000 off of work because of a holiday drunks.

 

[HPark1]

Just read this from the TorontoStar paper online.

"This will be the 36th Labour Day battle between the clubs, all at Ivor Wynne, with the Tiger-Cats holding a decisive 26-8-1 edge."



Moves lets just cut to the chase, give me a time and place. :hitting:

 

[KennyB]

Strong trend in the past but I think Hamilton is still the worst team in the CFL and they already won their game this year.

Are you just warning me or are you betting Hamilton?

10 Point Teaser:

Toronto +4'
Carolina (NFL) +3'
Florida -19' (Pinnacle)

 

[AFLGuru]

First off HP while I'm here, the Calgary Sun reports that Copeland is ready to start.

For the Toronto game... I tend to throw out history in this game as well. I'll give my thoughts here...

Toronto's the hottest team this side of BC in the CFL. No one else has shown as much consistency as the Argos have. The defense is solid, and the offense is doing enough to win games. 25, 22, 34... nothing special really (those are the last 3 Argos wins). They've had some big big wins on the road already this season, both in Edmonton and Montreal. Hamilton finally looked good last week for the first time since playing Edmonton. I still think this team has the potential to beat anyone in the CFL... but they certainly haven't played like it so far. The quarterback situation has been a revolving door for the Ti-Cats, and the only real consistent bright spot offensively has been Troy Davis. That being said, Toronto's secondary is amongst the best in the league, and Hamilton's offense didn't have CONSISTENT success against the Bombers D. They had big play ability. That won't happen this afternoon against the Argonauts.

As for Toronto's offense matching up against Hamilton's defense? Toronto's just stayed solid this year. The defense goes out and says to the offense "give me 21 points and we'll do the rest," and so far that's what's happened. The passing game is coming along for the Argos, even though John Avery has absolutely dropped off the face of the earth all together. The truth says that this Hamilton D isn't very good and we could be looking at our first true bust out offensive performance by the Argos.

However, I will be smart with this play. I need to fear a few things about this game. 1st off is the quick start. Toronto needs the ball first and needs to score first. If they don't get the ball first, they need to force a 2 and out. Anything less and the crowd starts getting into it. They need to stop the big play, which I am very very confident in. Finally, they need to avoid the vicious comeback... which I can always play out if I sense the problem coming with a 2nd half play.

On paper this game shouldn't be close at all. Not at all. But because this game is away, no lead makes me feel safe. I really believe that the Argos do take care of business once again on the road tonight and that the Ti-Cats go back to being the Ti-Cats after being on Cloud Nine for a week. We knew they were gonna beat someone at some point.

Final thought: If there's a team that can kill crowd momentum better than anyone else, it's Toronto. Crowds get sparked on big plays, and Toronto has limited their mistakes this season with Allen at QB, and doesn't allow the big play to happen on defense. That being said, if the crowd shuts up, this game should stay true to form. Toronto in the 30s, Hamilton in the teens.

 

[BlueWolf]

HPark, you're absolutely right: this is a special day in which upsets occur. But that stat from the Toronto Star is meaningless.

For many years, Ti-Cats have been battling for 1st place while the Argos were going nowhere. But in the last 2-3 years, Toronto hasn't lost once to Hamilton.

Now, don't get me wrong; Ti-Cats may very well win this ball game. But you'd have to rely on their last game's performance to pick them, as they have been horrible prior to that.

Personally, I haven't been that impressed with the Argos despite their winning record. But the Tiger Cats had one great half offensively against Winnipeg whose defense cannot be compared with Toronto's. I still think -5.5 is too low.

I'll use them in a parlay with the Over in the west.

GL to all.

BlueWolf

 

[AFLGuru]

For me, it was the loss to Montreal that convinced me that this team was the best team in the East. Coming out in the 2nd half and doing whatever they wanted to offensively, along with holding Calvillo and gang to 18 points on defense was extremely impressive. Despite the loss, I had the feeling this team was winning the East. Sure as hell looks like BC/Toronto to me in the Grey Cup right now, as someone's gotta go into BC Place and beat the Lions, something I don't think is happening this year.

 

[AFLGuru]

Your thoughts on this cover gentlemen...

Already have Toronto -5. I'm considering taking over 49.5, as the only way that I can see Hamilton sticking inside this number is if they can score 24 points. If they do, 27-24 is more than enough for it to happen. Seems more likely to me that the Argos reach 30 points and win both halves than it does for the Ti-Cats to cover a low scoring outing, though a low scoring outing seems to be suggested, and what I believe we'll see. But I've got the game so close to the total it's at now that it might be worth a % play going over the total if I can get 48.5 or so by gametime (currently 49.5 +100 at Pinnacle)

Some trends that mean absolutely nothing... Last 3 Argos games have gone under the total, and under by a couple scores. 2 of the last 3 Ti-Cat games have gone under the total as well. Not once this season has all 4 games of the week travelled over or under the total, something that feels like I'm rooting for to happen today. So call me crazy, but I hope that the fact that something has to give today, does.

See you all at gametime.

--AFLGuru

 

[HPark1]

I still don't believe in Toronto's defence. They allow teams to move the ball and then hope they can stop them in the redzone. It seems to work but I still think they are getting the breaks.

Take note they are virtually in the middle of the pack in key def stats;

> ranks tied for 3rd worst in allowing 5.5 yards per rush
> ranks 4th in the league in allowing 7.8 yards per catch
> ranks worst in pass completion percentage at 69.7%!
> last in INT's with a measly 6 on the year (even a bit shocking to me)

yet remarkably only allow just over 21 pts a game.

Even more amazing is that in 5 of their 6 victories this year they have been outgained by their opponent. Going back...

> 9 pt win vs. Calgary, just few yards outgained
> 4 pt win @ Edmonton, outgained by 125+ yards and 31-9 on 1st downs
> 12 pt win @ Montreal, outgained by 50+ yards and 6 first downs
> 1 pt win @ Saskatchewan, outgained by 100+ yards and 8 first downs
> 6 pt win @ Calgary, outgained by 75+ yards and 6 first downs.


I'm just not a believer in this bend but don't break philosophy.

Hamilton has lost nine straight (15 overall including preseason) against the Boatmen, this is quite incredible. Saying their due is foolish but it will give them extra motivation to put this misery to an end.

LB Mike O'Shea will also miss this game for the Argo's. I expect Hamilton to pound Davis all day and mix in some deep play action. Could be high scoring, total of 50 is enticing.


**Toronto had a great team with Flutie in the 90's, that Labour day record is not a complete fraud.

 

[BlueWolf]

I agree that BC seems to be heading to the Grey Cup match. But I wouldn't bet my car on the Argos.

I've seen too many games between Mtl and Tor to know that anything can happen... that is if they meet each other in the playoffs. I went with the Argos in last year's East Finals when I saw the ridiculous line (Mtl -10.5) and I feel that it could very well be the other way around this year.

I'll wait to see if Montreal's defense will ever be consistent.

BlueWolf

 

[AFLGuru]

Argos don't beat themselves... that's how they're winning. They don't make the dumb penalty or the dropped pass, or whatever it is like most of the other teams do in this league. The intangibles that separate good teams from bad ones.

 

[HPark1]

intangibles my arse, I'm not going to let you corrupt again Guru! Its got to be the home dog or nothing imo.

 

[Moves]

Hey Park.....nice job with Winnepeg last night. That shows how clueless you are. You played Winnepeg because Sask hasnt played well in the last few games. If you were smart and looked at the teams the would have realized that Sask is far superior.

You are obviously pretty stupid to believe things in the past matter in a football game. Football is a simple game, man against man. Whether Hamilton has won every game in the series is meaningless. Are the same players who played in that game 5, 10 or 20 years ago on the field today? I dont think so. That is why I see what idiots like you do on this board and week in and week out and fade people like you. I never understood why people on this site say things like this "this team has a winning record against the spread" or "have not covered on the road". IT IS MEANINGLESS. A PAST GAME HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH A FUTURE GAME.

Have you ever been to the stadium in Hamilton? I have. It is a little piece of crap small stadium and the crowd is not a factor like it would be at Death Valley in LSU, The Swamp in Gainesville or in the NFL in one of the dome stadiums.

******** If Hamilton wins it is because they are the better team today...THATS IT. However, on paper it just doesnt look that way.

YOU LITTLE *********!!!!


no name calling please in the main forum...start a thread in the RubberRoom thanks

 

[AFLGuru]

Yawn... Moves, can it and move on. HP is way better at this than I am and I feel I'm doing alright. Where in Florida are you located anyway? Bet you're a Canes fan...

 

[BlueWolf]

Relax, Moves. HP relies on stats like we all do and he is in fact a very good capper. We all give our opinions in order to help each other make winning bets.

BlueWolf

 

[AFLGuru]

And TCU is going to get killed by Oklahoma too, right... err.... sorry...

That's why they play the games.

 

[HPark1]

excellent, finally I have a personal hater, took over 700 posts but you have arrived.

can you post directly in my thread?, more effective that way.

This is fun arty:


Seriously why do you keep emphasizing home crowds/stadiums mean nothing? Why do all teams in any football league (sports for that matter) have a significantly better record at home?