I've been waiting a while for this game and I am fucking unloading on Winnipeg.
For the Leafs, tomorrow is B2B, 3in4, 5in7, all on the road since the Christmas break. They've lost 3 of those 4, with the one win being in a shootout over Boston in which they were extremely lucky to get any points after they played a great first half and (as usual) had to hang on for dear life in the third period.
Reimer likely starting tomorrow since Bernier played tonight. I am generally high on Reimer, and hope he plays well lately so they can deal him for a good piece at the deadline, but he's mostly struggled this year and has given up 12 goals total in his last 3 starts.
Leafs injuries hurt - Holland, Kadri and Lupul all out. They were all out tonight too, and while the Leafs played a decent game, they still lost, and both Bozak and Kessel both played over 26 minutes. That's big minutes for forwards that aren't exactly considered workhorses or fitness freaks. It's the most minutes for Bozak in his career (for good reason), and top-5 for Kessel. Holland has been a surprisingly valuable contributor this season, Kadri is by far the Leafs' best centre, and the only one that drives play, and Lupul leads the team in 5on5 goals.
I've been high on Winnipeg for most of the season. They've gradually become one of the best possession teams in the league, despite a fairly vanilla roster (and missing their most electrifying player in Kane for a good chunk - he's also out for this one) and playing in the toughest division in hockey. Their record is decent, but not yet reflective of their great play, which is the opposite of the Leafs. These 2 teams are tied in points, but are worlds apart in the way they play.
Hutchinson expected to start against the Leafs, and he's been nothing but incredible all season, currently leading the league in GAA and SV% after his 15 games played. Flash in the pan? Who knows - he'll certainly regress at some point, but for now you might as well ride the hot streak.
Sure, Winnipeg doesn't score a ton - it's their big weakness, really, but when your goalie's given up 3 goals only 4 times in his 15 games, and never more than 3, you've always got a good shot at winning.
Want stats? Winnipeg is a top-10 team when it comes to possession. Toronto is bottom-5. In the last 20 games? Winnipeg is 2nd overall. Toronto is 2nd-last. Each has 25 points in those last 20 games. However, the Leafs are #1 in PDO in that stretch, by a good chunk at 103.9. The Jets have been average at 100.3. Now who is due for a regression?
Point is, even without the stats at the bottom, you'd have pretty good reason to jump on the Jets at -140 (get it while it lasts, cause it won't. They opened at -131 and were hit hard right away). If you want +money the regulation win is a good bet too imo.
Lastly, I make these posts every so often hoping to generate some discussion in this FORUM. While it's nice when people stop in and post GL or something, I'd like it even more if the post generated some discussion. Tell me I'm a fucking idiot who is in the red this season, so you're going to fade me. Tell me the Leafs are for real and the Jets suck so I must be smoking crack to bet Winnipeg. Or agree with some parts of the post, and disagree with other parts.
I'm not posting this at 10 different sites for clickbait and attention - only here, to share some information that I hope might be of value. I was posting picks for a while, but not doing well overall this season, so don't need to bother as I track myself anyway on a spreadsheet, and there are plenty of people in the forum doing well to follow - no need to clutter imo. But I don't think we get enough analysis in the RX forum despite some great cappers with a lot to offer besides their picks. Sherwood sometimes shares his analysis, which is awesome, and I should probably take my own advice and comment thoughtfully more often on his posts, which are always well thought out. Same goes for Vic - his breakdowns are always spot on. We need more of the same I think, because let's face it - unless you're really killing it, nobody's tailing you.
GL to all, fade or follow, and as always thoughts are welcome.
For the Leafs, tomorrow is B2B, 3in4, 5in7, all on the road since the Christmas break. They've lost 3 of those 4, with the one win being in a shootout over Boston in which they were extremely lucky to get any points after they played a great first half and (as usual) had to hang on for dear life in the third period.
Reimer likely starting tomorrow since Bernier played tonight. I am generally high on Reimer, and hope he plays well lately so they can deal him for a good piece at the deadline, but he's mostly struggled this year and has given up 12 goals total in his last 3 starts.
Leafs injuries hurt - Holland, Kadri and Lupul all out. They were all out tonight too, and while the Leafs played a decent game, they still lost, and both Bozak and Kessel both played over 26 minutes. That's big minutes for forwards that aren't exactly considered workhorses or fitness freaks. It's the most minutes for Bozak in his career (for good reason), and top-5 for Kessel. Holland has been a surprisingly valuable contributor this season, Kadri is by far the Leafs' best centre, and the only one that drives play, and Lupul leads the team in 5on5 goals.
I've been high on Winnipeg for most of the season. They've gradually become one of the best possession teams in the league, despite a fairly vanilla roster (and missing their most electrifying player in Kane for a good chunk - he's also out for this one) and playing in the toughest division in hockey. Their record is decent, but not yet reflective of their great play, which is the opposite of the Leafs. These 2 teams are tied in points, but are worlds apart in the way they play.
Hutchinson expected to start against the Leafs, and he's been nothing but incredible all season, currently leading the league in GAA and SV% after his 15 games played. Flash in the pan? Who knows - he'll certainly regress at some point, but for now you might as well ride the hot streak.
Sure, Winnipeg doesn't score a ton - it's their big weakness, really, but when your goalie's given up 3 goals only 4 times in his 15 games, and never more than 3, you've always got a good shot at winning.
Want stats? Winnipeg is a top-10 team when it comes to possession. Toronto is bottom-5. In the last 20 games? Winnipeg is 2nd overall. Toronto is 2nd-last. Each has 25 points in those last 20 games. However, the Leafs are #1 in PDO in that stretch, by a good chunk at 103.9. The Jets have been average at 100.3. Now who is due for a regression?
Point is, even without the stats at the bottom, you'd have pretty good reason to jump on the Jets at -140 (get it while it lasts, cause it won't. They opened at -131 and were hit hard right away). If you want +money the regulation win is a good bet too imo.
Lastly, I make these posts every so often hoping to generate some discussion in this FORUM. While it's nice when people stop in and post GL or something, I'd like it even more if the post generated some discussion. Tell me I'm a fucking idiot who is in the red this season, so you're going to fade me. Tell me the Leafs are for real and the Jets suck so I must be smoking crack to bet Winnipeg. Or agree with some parts of the post, and disagree with other parts.
I'm not posting this at 10 different sites for clickbait and attention - only here, to share some information that I hope might be of value. I was posting picks for a while, but not doing well overall this season, so don't need to bother as I track myself anyway on a spreadsheet, and there are plenty of people in the forum doing well to follow - no need to clutter imo. But I don't think we get enough analysis in the RX forum despite some great cappers with a lot to offer besides their picks. Sherwood sometimes shares his analysis, which is awesome, and I should probably take my own advice and comment thoughtfully more often on his posts, which are always well thought out. Same goes for Vic - his breakdowns are always spot on. We need more of the same I think, because let's face it - unless you're really killing it, nobody's tailing you.
GL to all, fade or follow, and as always thoughts are welcome.
