Aloha Gang. Well, yesterday we ended with yet another profitable day posting a solid 3W-1L= +7 Units. My GOM Play goes down for ONLY the 2nd time this year, on a last second three pointer which followed missed FT's. If you followed all my plays, you were a WINNER yesterday again. Still, if you are a Big Game Hunter and only played my Big Games, then on the year you are the Biggest Winner, as my GOM Side Plays are still 12W-2L= +70 Units.(86%) on the Season.(less vig) For this week, we are already up on the Man and have our sites set on hitting our 9th Consecutive Winning Week.
This CBB Season, has been simply a pleasure for me to have this ability to provide all who follow these plays, that opportunity to benefit in some way. It brings me pleasure to do this, as it is done strictly from the HEART and nothing else. For today, we have a rare All Doggy Day. So lets get it going, and Lets Bark Loud Today Baby!
**Top 6 Unit Play on:
George Mason +9 (buy .5pt)(LOSE)
-GM is 23-9 overall on the year. They are also 9-8 SU and 9-7 ATS on the road, averaging 70.2 ppg and shooting 43.4% from the field, while they allow opponents to score 71.5 ppg and 45.5% from the field. Oregon is 16-12 overall on the year. They are also 11-3 SU and 6-7 ATS at home, scoring an average of 76.6 ppg and 46.6% shooting from the field, while they hold opponents to just 69.5 ppg and 44.4% shooting from the field.
Based on each's last 5 games played, GM has seen an increase in its Defensive play, as they have been holding opponents to ONLY 58.8 ppg, 27.2pts in the first half, and just 39.8% shooting from the field.
Oregon, on the other hand, has seen both an Offensive and Defensive decrease in play. On Offense their scoring average dropped by an average of 4.2 ppg(72.4pts), and their FG% dropped by 5.4%(41.2%). On the Defensive end, they have in this span, been allowing opponents to score more points and a higher FG% shooting from the field. Oregon at home on the year, as well in the last 5 games, have been struggling on the boards grabbing just alittle over 31 rpg, while their opponents average boarding 35 rpg.
GM is a team that is on a Major roll winning 7 of their last 8 games and 11 of their last 14 games. Oregon as well is on a bit of win streak, but it is their weak defensive play especially in the paint that gives me reasons to favor this Patriot squad today. Also, one note to consider is the fact that Oregon even though has the ability to shoot lights out, especially with Jackson, their poor defensive play has not allowed them to win any games in a dominant fashion. In fact, Oregon's has not beaten anyone by this number since way back on Jan 17th vs Wash St.
This play on GM also agrees with a systems play using the power rating and HCA which is compared to the posted lines, and it shows Oregon winning by just 4 pts and thus giving GM and edge and value today. In addition to this system, I feel that it is Oregons lack of dominance in the paint, along with GM's current step up in defensive play which will allow GM to stick around this number today. Take the Points. Go Patriots!
**4 Unit Play on:
Iowa State +9 (WINNER SU)
-Ok first off, we all know how solid Fl St has been at home this year, and we all know how poor Iowa St's record has been on the road this year. So with that said, I am going to look at other factors which give me confidence in backing the Cyclones today.
Fl St's SOS is 23 compared to ISU SOS 41. Fl St's RPI is 41 while ISU's RPI is 57. These numbers though different, are not that far apart as compared to some we have seen in earlier tournament games.
Based on both teams last 5 games, Iowa St has stepped it up drastically on the Offensive end averaging 75.2 ppg and shooting 53.6% from the field. They have also been better in holding opponents to just 30.8 rpg during this time.
Fl St, on the other hand, has seen its Offensive production slide a bit averaging less ppg and a lower FG% shooting from the field. Still, what stands out to me is their Defensive play has been very poor during this span, where they have been allowing opponents to average 77 ppg and shoot 43.1% from the field. They have also, in this span, held a growing deficit to their opponents on the boards.
What also makes me want to also play against Fl St is due to their late season slide, where they have lost 5 of their last 6. In their only win during this span, they were behind to Wichita St for most of the game and needed double OT to get that win. Also, although they have covered 7 of their last 8 vs the number, you need to realize that it was achieved with them in the Dog role in 5 of them games, also 2 of those games were at home vs the Conf's bottom teams, and 1 was a non Conf opponent.
ISU in their last road games, though they lost, have played solid. They played at Kansas and only lost that game by 1pt. They played at Neb and only lost that game by 3pts. They beat Kansas St on a neutral court by 14pts, and they played Ok St tough only losing to the Cowboys by 8pts. Plus, they beat an SEC team in Georgia, who beat Kentucky twice, in their last game.
Today, I basically have to go against this Fl St team who is a team that clearly plays their best ball when they are in the role of the Dog. I like the points here against them as an heavy favorite, a role which they may not be able to handle, due to like I mentioned their emotions and motivations seem to be spurred on by the role they found themselve to be in as an Underdog. Iowa St is playing well of late and with all these points I feel comfortable backing them. Still though I wouldnt be surprised if they end up pulling the upset today as well. Take the points. Go Cyclones!
**3 Unit Play on:
Boise St +4.5(LOSE)
-Boise is a veteran team playing with 5 returning starters and a deep bench. Overall this year, they are 23-9, whereas Marq is overall is 18-11. Boise St's SOS is 130 while Marq's SOS is 82. But, here is a hidden advantage, Boise St's RPI is 64th, while Marq's RPI is 71st.
Boise St this year have gone 11-3 ATS on the road, while Marq at home posted is just 3-7 ATS. Boise St is #1 in the WAC in 3pts made per game with 6.84. #3 in the WAC in scoring Offense.
Both are solid FT shooting teams. But Marq is a team that seem to live and die on the 3pt shooting of Travis Diener. To counter this threat, Boise St has been playing solid defense in defending the ARC all year where they are #2 in the WAC in 3pt FG% Def holding opponents to ONLY 30% from downtown. On the road, they are also solid at defending the ARC holding opponents to 32% from 3pt land.
Boise St is still to me a HOT team as they have simply won 9 of their last 10 games, covering 8 of 10 in this span. I also feel that this scrappy veteran squad of Boise St will be able to push this game and challenge Marq on both ends of the court. As long as they keep a clamp on Diener, which their defensive play suggest they can, they should be able to cover this number in a close one that may come down to who is better at the charity line. Go Bulldogs!
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FYI:-In NIT games, the home teams have dominated going 24-4, but against the number, they are only 16-12 ATS.
**Ok Gang, today the Dogs should be barking loud and hard. Lets make sure we bark along with them and take yet another positive profitable day from the Man. Good Luck to All today, and Aloha Co-Captain.
.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 24, 2004 at 01:42 AM.]
This CBB Season, has been simply a pleasure for me to have this ability to provide all who follow these plays, that opportunity to benefit in some way. It brings me pleasure to do this, as it is done strictly from the HEART and nothing else. For today, we have a rare All Doggy Day. So lets get it going, and Lets Bark Loud Today Baby!
**Top 6 Unit Play on:
George Mason +9 (buy .5pt)(LOSE)
-GM is 23-9 overall on the year. They are also 9-8 SU and 9-7 ATS on the road, averaging 70.2 ppg and shooting 43.4% from the field, while they allow opponents to score 71.5 ppg and 45.5% from the field. Oregon is 16-12 overall on the year. They are also 11-3 SU and 6-7 ATS at home, scoring an average of 76.6 ppg and 46.6% shooting from the field, while they hold opponents to just 69.5 ppg and 44.4% shooting from the field.
Based on each's last 5 games played, GM has seen an increase in its Defensive play, as they have been holding opponents to ONLY 58.8 ppg, 27.2pts in the first half, and just 39.8% shooting from the field.
Oregon, on the other hand, has seen both an Offensive and Defensive decrease in play. On Offense their scoring average dropped by an average of 4.2 ppg(72.4pts), and their FG% dropped by 5.4%(41.2%). On the Defensive end, they have in this span, been allowing opponents to score more points and a higher FG% shooting from the field. Oregon at home on the year, as well in the last 5 games, have been struggling on the boards grabbing just alittle over 31 rpg, while their opponents average boarding 35 rpg.
GM is a team that is on a Major roll winning 7 of their last 8 games and 11 of their last 14 games. Oregon as well is on a bit of win streak, but it is their weak defensive play especially in the paint that gives me reasons to favor this Patriot squad today. Also, one note to consider is the fact that Oregon even though has the ability to shoot lights out, especially with Jackson, their poor defensive play has not allowed them to win any games in a dominant fashion. In fact, Oregon's has not beaten anyone by this number since way back on Jan 17th vs Wash St.
This play on GM also agrees with a systems play using the power rating and HCA which is compared to the posted lines, and it shows Oregon winning by just 4 pts and thus giving GM and edge and value today. In addition to this system, I feel that it is Oregons lack of dominance in the paint, along with GM's current step up in defensive play which will allow GM to stick around this number today. Take the Points. Go Patriots!
**4 Unit Play on:
Iowa State +9 (WINNER SU)
-Ok first off, we all know how solid Fl St has been at home this year, and we all know how poor Iowa St's record has been on the road this year. So with that said, I am going to look at other factors which give me confidence in backing the Cyclones today.
Fl St's SOS is 23 compared to ISU SOS 41. Fl St's RPI is 41 while ISU's RPI is 57. These numbers though different, are not that far apart as compared to some we have seen in earlier tournament games.
Based on both teams last 5 games, Iowa St has stepped it up drastically on the Offensive end averaging 75.2 ppg and shooting 53.6% from the field. They have also been better in holding opponents to just 30.8 rpg during this time.
Fl St, on the other hand, has seen its Offensive production slide a bit averaging less ppg and a lower FG% shooting from the field. Still, what stands out to me is their Defensive play has been very poor during this span, where they have been allowing opponents to average 77 ppg and shoot 43.1% from the field. They have also, in this span, held a growing deficit to their opponents on the boards.
What also makes me want to also play against Fl St is due to their late season slide, where they have lost 5 of their last 6. In their only win during this span, they were behind to Wichita St for most of the game and needed double OT to get that win. Also, although they have covered 7 of their last 8 vs the number, you need to realize that it was achieved with them in the Dog role in 5 of them games, also 2 of those games were at home vs the Conf's bottom teams, and 1 was a non Conf opponent.
ISU in their last road games, though they lost, have played solid. They played at Kansas and only lost that game by 1pt. They played at Neb and only lost that game by 3pts. They beat Kansas St on a neutral court by 14pts, and they played Ok St tough only losing to the Cowboys by 8pts. Plus, they beat an SEC team in Georgia, who beat Kentucky twice, in their last game.
Today, I basically have to go against this Fl St team who is a team that clearly plays their best ball when they are in the role of the Dog. I like the points here against them as an heavy favorite, a role which they may not be able to handle, due to like I mentioned their emotions and motivations seem to be spurred on by the role they found themselve to be in as an Underdog. Iowa St is playing well of late and with all these points I feel comfortable backing them. Still though I wouldnt be surprised if they end up pulling the upset today as well. Take the points. Go Cyclones!
**3 Unit Play on:
Boise St +4.5(LOSE)
-Boise is a veteran team playing with 5 returning starters and a deep bench. Overall this year, they are 23-9, whereas Marq is overall is 18-11. Boise St's SOS is 130 while Marq's SOS is 82. But, here is a hidden advantage, Boise St's RPI is 64th, while Marq's RPI is 71st.
Boise St this year have gone 11-3 ATS on the road, while Marq at home posted is just 3-7 ATS. Boise St is #1 in the WAC in 3pts made per game with 6.84. #3 in the WAC in scoring Offense.
Both are solid FT shooting teams. But Marq is a team that seem to live and die on the 3pt shooting of Travis Diener. To counter this threat, Boise St has been playing solid defense in defending the ARC all year where they are #2 in the WAC in 3pt FG% Def holding opponents to ONLY 30% from downtown. On the road, they are also solid at defending the ARC holding opponents to 32% from 3pt land.
Boise St is still to me a HOT team as they have simply won 9 of their last 10 games, covering 8 of 10 in this span. I also feel that this scrappy veteran squad of Boise St will be able to push this game and challenge Marq on both ends of the court. As long as they keep a clamp on Diener, which their defensive play suggest they can, they should be able to cover this number in a close one that may come down to who is better at the charity line. Go Bulldogs!
-------------------------------------------
FYI:-In NIT games, the home teams have dominated going 24-4, but against the number, they are only 16-12 ATS.
**Ok Gang, today the Dogs should be barking loud and hard. Lets make sure we bark along with them and take yet another positive profitable day from the Man. Good Luck to All today, and Aloha Co-Captain.
.
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on March 24, 2004 at 01:42 AM.]
