Aloha Gang! Well, yesterday we ended up winning 3 games and losing two for a tiny positive day. Still though, our record for the week combined stands at: 26W-19L= +35 Units.(not counting vig). Yesterday's Top play lost, but this weeks record on Top Plays is still a solid 6W-3L= + 21 Units.(not counting vig) Due to us kicking ASS earlier in the week, we are still ahead of the Man and sitting in a positive position going into this HUGE Saturday's card. I have isolated some great games that looks very solid to getting us more Units today. For everyone's information, I have split my card into 2 sections, the early games and the later games. I think this will be easier for me to update and for you to follow. So here is the first set of plays. Lets bang the Man with these Bad Boys first. Enough said, LETS GET THIS PARTY STARTED!
***FIRST SET OF PLAYS GOING OFF FROM 12:00AM-5:30PM est.
6 Unit Plays on:
Ohio -2 (WINNER-by 4pts)
S ILL -3 (LOSE-by 2pts ats DAM!)
St Peters E(LOSE SU)
-Ok, Ohio the last 5 games at home, they have gone 5-0 SU and ATS. Akron, has lost its last seven road games SU and 1-7 ATS. Talk about road woes. This is TWO strong trends showing that Ohio is the smarter side to back. These two are next to each other in the Conf standings, so even more so I will favor the Home team. Ohio's currently 6-1 ATS, 21-9 ATS the last 3 seasons in all home lined games. They are also 4-0 ATS this year as a FAV. More specifically, they are 2-0 ATS, 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons, 11-4 ATS since 1997, as a home fav of 3pts or less. Lastly, they are currently 5-3 ATS, 14-4 ATS the last 3 seasons, and 32-14 ATS since 1997 in revenging a road loss vs opponents. This Ohio squad definately believe in payback, and for us thats a good thing. More terrible stats for Akron, is they are currently 1-5 ATS as an Underdog this year. They are also 1-7 ATS in Saturday games, and 1-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. Ohio on the other hand, for the last 3 seasons are 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Plus, Ohio is 4-1 ATS the last 5 games vs Akron over the last 3 seasons. This should start off as a close scoring game, but in the end, both teams should revert back to their constant current trends, and that means another Ohio win and cover at home.
-I just have to go with the Salukie's in this one, eventhough SW Miss St is playing to avenge their 7pt loss to them back on 2-03. The Salukies are something special this year, as they are 13-0 in the Conf, 19-2 overall, and 9-1 SU and ATS in road games this year. SIMPLY AMAZING! SW Miss St only averages 67.3 ppg at home, and a LOW of 60.5 ppg in Conf games. S ILL, on the other hand, averages 72 ppg on the road, and holds its opponents to just 65.5 ppg. If they just play to their averages, this should reflect a 5 to 7pt win and cover by the Salukies. Looks good to me. SW Miss St couldnt do it last year in this same role as an -3.5pt home dog, and I just dont see them being able to get it done this year either, especially because this Salukie team returns 3 starters and a host of Key players from last year.
-This one is an important game for both in the Conf, as St Peters stands at 10-3 and Niagara is 8-4 in the Conf. Niagara is a solid 7-3 SU on the road and puts up alot of pts at 82.1 ppg away from home. They are also 2-0 ATS as a road Dog as well. Still, St Peters has been solid at Home this year, going 9-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. They are also currently 6-1 ATS, 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons, and 12-6 ATS since 1997, in the Favorite role. More specifically, they are currently 2-0 ATS, 6-0 ATS last 3 seasons, and 8-1 ATS since 1997 as a Home Fav of 3pts or less or pick. St Peters lost a close one to Conf leader Manhattan on 2-08, but they should get this one as Niagara is a small but definate step down from Manhattan. St Peters star Keydren Clark will show Niagara why he is #2 in the Nation in Scoring with a Big Day. But because of the importance of this one, you have to also expect that his teammates as well, will bring their A games tonight. The fans also should be out in force adding to their HCA, and they surely will be also seeking to avenge the Sweep of their team by this Niagara squad last season. Tonight St Peters gets their double Revenger against Niagara.
4 Unit Plays on:
Providence -1.5 (WINNER-by 9pts)
Syracuse E (WINNER in BLOWOUT-by 17pts)
La Tech -4 (LOSE-SU in OT)
ND +2 (WINNER SU-by 3pts)
-Providence won this year at Seton Hall, UConn, and Villanova. BC lost at home to Villanova and UConn. I dont see why Providence cant win here as well. Friars are a solid 6-3 SU on the road, and play with 5 returning starters and a much deeper bench. These three facts should be enough to get a hard fought win again on the Big East Road.
-Well, Miami is sliding fast and their doesnt seem to be any sign of them getting out of this funk. They are currently on a 6 game losing streak. Syracuse not that much better, but they have been facing defeats to only the Conf's elite, which Miami is not. Syracuse though without the services of one of their top players, they still hold a better talent edge over the lesser Conf opponents. Syracuse knows it needs to pick things up as March is very near and I dont think the Defending National Champs will want to miss that Dance. Syracuse 3-0 SU and ATS at Miami since 1997. Last year they won here by 5pts, eventhough they shot only 16% from 3pt and 37% from the field, and 60% from the line. This shows me who has the much better talent as 3 of last years starters are back. Miami also currently 1-5 ATS, 8-20 ATS last 3 seasons, when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Seems like this time of year, Miami gets caught by better teams stepping up their game as they head into March Madness, someplace where Miami players knows they are not good enough to be. This time of year, the Teams with the better talent and motivation to get focused on play good ball heading into tournament time, most often wins out over the lesser Conf opponents. Miami's statistical slide during this time of year, backs up this play.
-La Tech is coming into this one winning 3 of their last 4 road games. In this span, they have taken down Boise St, SMU, and Hawaii all on their court. Their only road loss in this span came at the hands of Utep, but it was by ONLY 3pts. La Tech has already beat this SJST team by 11pts at home on 1-15. SJST is 0-11 SU in the Conf, and just 3-7 ATS at home. La Tech has the #1 rebounder in the Country in Paul Millsap and he is showing how valuable and dominant he is in the paint which is the reasons for La Tech's success. SJST wont be able to challenge him down low due their lack to size. This leaves them to shoot mainly from the perimeter. If they are on Off, dont expect them either to get to many, if any , second chance shots against Millsap and La Tech. Because of this dominance on the boards, that I see La Tech having in this one, SJST better be on their game from outside, or this La Tech team who doesnt score that much will be able to build a commanding lead that should supply enough cushion against any SJST comeback runs. This year, SJST is 1-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. La Tech currently this year is also 3-0 ATS vs teams with losing records. Very good sign of a team who sees every game as important. In La Tech's case though, every game is important, as they want to secure a better spot come Conf tournament time. La Tech over the seasons, have simply owned SJST as they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS vs SJST the last 3 years. The only concern for me in this one, is that La Tech is coming off an upset of Conf leader Hawaii, and have been traveling some long distances. Well, I have decided to overlook this fact and rely on the fact that SJST lack of any depth and size, will lead again to their downfall as it was in their first meeting when they were simply out boarded. Today Millsap should own the paints on both sides of the court.
-ND is 2-0 SU vs SH at home the last 3 seasons. SH lost two of their last three road games, at BC and WV. ND last two games against Top ranked Pitt and UConn at home showed that they are a team to back at home. ND, seems to be putting things together of late led by their star guard Thomas, and they will need to beat out any quality opponent if they want to secure a tournament invitation. This one is just as important as their upset win vs UConn, so expect them to be very focused and motivated for this one. ND also knows that after dropping several winnable games at home, they simply cant afford any more slip ups as they will be hitting the road for a 2 game swing in very hostile courts at Syracuse and UConn, following this game. I will go with the Luck of the Irish today, as Seton Hall cashed in their lucky ticket last week with their lucky 1pt OT Win against Pitt.
3 Unit Plays on:
Wisc Milw -7 (LOSE SU)
BYU -1.5 (WINNER-by 14pts)
Texas -6(LOSE SU)
-Well Wisc Milw is the better team and should dominate easily for a double digit win today. Enough said. Wisc Milw is 12-1 in the Conf, while Youngstown St Conf record stands at 3-9. Wisc Milw is 2-0 SU and ATS vs Youngstown St at their house, the last 3 seasons. Wisc Milw already beat this team at home by only 6pts, but they were more than likely eyeing their next big game coming up at Wisc GB and lacked any type of motivation. But today, I would expect that being on the road will allow Wisc Milw to be a bit more focused on this bottom dwelling opponent trying to seek Revenge. Also, with only Butler coming up 5 days after this one and with the NCAA tournaments quickly approaching, I simply cannot see this team taking anything or any team for granted. Thus, results of this game should be another double digit victory for the Horizon's elite team. Wisc Milw gets the complete Sweep of Youngstown St easily today.
-BYU on the Road is struggling going just 3-7 SU, but Wyoming to me isnt at all that strong at home. They also arent good in the dog role as this year, they are 0-7 ATS, and 8-16 ATS the last 3 seasons as an Underdog. Wyoming is also currently 3-12 ATS, 17-35 ATS last 3 seasons, when playing against a team with a winning record. BYU already beat them by 14pts at home, and they also swept Wyoming last season. BYU is to dominant in the paint with Araujo and Meeks for Wyoming to find to many second chance shots or to stop the MWC leading scorer in Araujo. This lack of stopping and then competing with BYU's big men down low is what I feel will prevent Wyoming's chance for Revenge today. Wyoming can shoot from behind the Arc, but in games like these, I rather take the team with the higher percentage shots and multiple opportunities off the board. BYU should SWEEP the Cowboys for a second consecutive year. This is a different time of the season, and I am not afraid of the earlier road losses by BYU.
-I cant believe that this line is this LOW. Based on a power rating system using also HCA and the current line, Texas should be at least a Double Digit Favorite in this one. Still, they are not and thats enough for me to jump on the Longhorns who is way better then these Cyclones. I am in no way concerned with Iowa St's 12-1 home win record, as Texas is a veteran road tested team. Iowa St's recent 3 game slide will continue vs this Top Conf foe. Iowa St is currently 0-3 ATS vs good Offenses teams scoring 77+ pts per game. Also, for some reason, they simply arent good ATS on Saturday games as they are currently 3-5 ATS, and 8-19 ATS the last 3 seasons in Saturday games. Also, in Feb games they are struggling as they are currently 0-3 ATS and 5-11 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played in this month. Seems like they also get caught like Miami, by better teams during this time of the year, who are prepping for their run to March Madness. Today, Iowa St's lack of talent to match up especially with Texas's backcourt, will catch up to them. This game should open up and remain close in the first half, but the second half expect Texas to pull away winning by double digits. Iowa St will have to wait to its next game to rebound from their disappointing slide, as Texas is simply to HOT right now for them to cool down.
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***OK Gang, as I stated, this is the First Set for Saturday. I will be posting the Second Set later in the Day in this thread. So for all who are interested in them, you can check back later for them. Also Gang, my writeups as you know is usually jam packed with info and fairly lengthy, but due to this huge card, I had to cut back on some of the info as I didnt want to be writing a Book. All the work was done completely, but the writeups will just have what I feel is the most important points. So with that said, Lets do some damage first with these plays. Good Luck and Aloha Co-Captain.
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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 14, 2004 at 11:47 PM.]
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 15, 2004 at 03:11 AM.]
***FIRST SET OF PLAYS GOING OFF FROM 12:00AM-5:30PM est.
6 Unit Plays on:
Ohio -2 (WINNER-by 4pts)
S ILL -3 (LOSE-by 2pts ats DAM!)
St Peters E(LOSE SU)
-Ok, Ohio the last 5 games at home, they have gone 5-0 SU and ATS. Akron, has lost its last seven road games SU and 1-7 ATS. Talk about road woes. This is TWO strong trends showing that Ohio is the smarter side to back. These two are next to each other in the Conf standings, so even more so I will favor the Home team. Ohio's currently 6-1 ATS, 21-9 ATS the last 3 seasons in all home lined games. They are also 4-0 ATS this year as a FAV. More specifically, they are 2-0 ATS, 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons, 11-4 ATS since 1997, as a home fav of 3pts or less. Lastly, they are currently 5-3 ATS, 14-4 ATS the last 3 seasons, and 32-14 ATS since 1997 in revenging a road loss vs opponents. This Ohio squad definately believe in payback, and for us thats a good thing. More terrible stats for Akron, is they are currently 1-5 ATS as an Underdog this year. They are also 1-7 ATS in Saturday games, and 1-3 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. Ohio on the other hand, for the last 3 seasons are 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Plus, Ohio is 4-1 ATS the last 5 games vs Akron over the last 3 seasons. This should start off as a close scoring game, but in the end, both teams should revert back to their constant current trends, and that means another Ohio win and cover at home.
-I just have to go with the Salukie's in this one, eventhough SW Miss St is playing to avenge their 7pt loss to them back on 2-03. The Salukies are something special this year, as they are 13-0 in the Conf, 19-2 overall, and 9-1 SU and ATS in road games this year. SIMPLY AMAZING! SW Miss St only averages 67.3 ppg at home, and a LOW of 60.5 ppg in Conf games. S ILL, on the other hand, averages 72 ppg on the road, and holds its opponents to just 65.5 ppg. If they just play to their averages, this should reflect a 5 to 7pt win and cover by the Salukies. Looks good to me. SW Miss St couldnt do it last year in this same role as an -3.5pt home dog, and I just dont see them being able to get it done this year either, especially because this Salukie team returns 3 starters and a host of Key players from last year.
-This one is an important game for both in the Conf, as St Peters stands at 10-3 and Niagara is 8-4 in the Conf. Niagara is a solid 7-3 SU on the road and puts up alot of pts at 82.1 ppg away from home. They are also 2-0 ATS as a road Dog as well. Still, St Peters has been solid at Home this year, going 9-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. They are also currently 6-1 ATS, 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons, and 12-6 ATS since 1997, in the Favorite role. More specifically, they are currently 2-0 ATS, 6-0 ATS last 3 seasons, and 8-1 ATS since 1997 as a Home Fav of 3pts or less or pick. St Peters lost a close one to Conf leader Manhattan on 2-08, but they should get this one as Niagara is a small but definate step down from Manhattan. St Peters star Keydren Clark will show Niagara why he is #2 in the Nation in Scoring with a Big Day. But because of the importance of this one, you have to also expect that his teammates as well, will bring their A games tonight. The fans also should be out in force adding to their HCA, and they surely will be also seeking to avenge the Sweep of their team by this Niagara squad last season. Tonight St Peters gets their double Revenger against Niagara.
4 Unit Plays on:
Providence -1.5 (WINNER-by 9pts)
Syracuse E (WINNER in BLOWOUT-by 17pts)
La Tech -4 (LOSE-SU in OT)
ND +2 (WINNER SU-by 3pts)
-Providence won this year at Seton Hall, UConn, and Villanova. BC lost at home to Villanova and UConn. I dont see why Providence cant win here as well. Friars are a solid 6-3 SU on the road, and play with 5 returning starters and a much deeper bench. These three facts should be enough to get a hard fought win again on the Big East Road.
-Well, Miami is sliding fast and their doesnt seem to be any sign of them getting out of this funk. They are currently on a 6 game losing streak. Syracuse not that much better, but they have been facing defeats to only the Conf's elite, which Miami is not. Syracuse though without the services of one of their top players, they still hold a better talent edge over the lesser Conf opponents. Syracuse knows it needs to pick things up as March is very near and I dont think the Defending National Champs will want to miss that Dance. Syracuse 3-0 SU and ATS at Miami since 1997. Last year they won here by 5pts, eventhough they shot only 16% from 3pt and 37% from the field, and 60% from the line. This shows me who has the much better talent as 3 of last years starters are back. Miami also currently 1-5 ATS, 8-20 ATS last 3 seasons, when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Seems like this time of year, Miami gets caught by better teams stepping up their game as they head into March Madness, someplace where Miami players knows they are not good enough to be. This time of year, the Teams with the better talent and motivation to get focused on play good ball heading into tournament time, most often wins out over the lesser Conf opponents. Miami's statistical slide during this time of year, backs up this play.
-La Tech is coming into this one winning 3 of their last 4 road games. In this span, they have taken down Boise St, SMU, and Hawaii all on their court. Their only road loss in this span came at the hands of Utep, but it was by ONLY 3pts. La Tech has already beat this SJST team by 11pts at home on 1-15. SJST is 0-11 SU in the Conf, and just 3-7 ATS at home. La Tech has the #1 rebounder in the Country in Paul Millsap and he is showing how valuable and dominant he is in the paint which is the reasons for La Tech's success. SJST wont be able to challenge him down low due their lack to size. This leaves them to shoot mainly from the perimeter. If they are on Off, dont expect them either to get to many, if any , second chance shots against Millsap and La Tech. Because of this dominance on the boards, that I see La Tech having in this one, SJST better be on their game from outside, or this La Tech team who doesnt score that much will be able to build a commanding lead that should supply enough cushion against any SJST comeback runs. This year, SJST is 1-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. La Tech currently this year is also 3-0 ATS vs teams with losing records. Very good sign of a team who sees every game as important. In La Tech's case though, every game is important, as they want to secure a better spot come Conf tournament time. La Tech over the seasons, have simply owned SJST as they are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS vs SJST the last 3 years. The only concern for me in this one, is that La Tech is coming off an upset of Conf leader Hawaii, and have been traveling some long distances. Well, I have decided to overlook this fact and rely on the fact that SJST lack of any depth and size, will lead again to their downfall as it was in their first meeting when they were simply out boarded. Today Millsap should own the paints on both sides of the court.
-ND is 2-0 SU vs SH at home the last 3 seasons. SH lost two of their last three road games, at BC and WV. ND last two games against Top ranked Pitt and UConn at home showed that they are a team to back at home. ND, seems to be putting things together of late led by their star guard Thomas, and they will need to beat out any quality opponent if they want to secure a tournament invitation. This one is just as important as their upset win vs UConn, so expect them to be very focused and motivated for this one. ND also knows that after dropping several winnable games at home, they simply cant afford any more slip ups as they will be hitting the road for a 2 game swing in very hostile courts at Syracuse and UConn, following this game. I will go with the Luck of the Irish today, as Seton Hall cashed in their lucky ticket last week with their lucky 1pt OT Win against Pitt.
3 Unit Plays on:
Wisc Milw -7 (LOSE SU)
BYU -1.5 (WINNER-by 14pts)
Texas -6(LOSE SU)
-Well Wisc Milw is the better team and should dominate easily for a double digit win today. Enough said. Wisc Milw is 12-1 in the Conf, while Youngstown St Conf record stands at 3-9. Wisc Milw is 2-0 SU and ATS vs Youngstown St at their house, the last 3 seasons. Wisc Milw already beat this team at home by only 6pts, but they were more than likely eyeing their next big game coming up at Wisc GB and lacked any type of motivation. But today, I would expect that being on the road will allow Wisc Milw to be a bit more focused on this bottom dwelling opponent trying to seek Revenge. Also, with only Butler coming up 5 days after this one and with the NCAA tournaments quickly approaching, I simply cannot see this team taking anything or any team for granted. Thus, results of this game should be another double digit victory for the Horizon's elite team. Wisc Milw gets the complete Sweep of Youngstown St easily today.
-BYU on the Road is struggling going just 3-7 SU, but Wyoming to me isnt at all that strong at home. They also arent good in the dog role as this year, they are 0-7 ATS, and 8-16 ATS the last 3 seasons as an Underdog. Wyoming is also currently 3-12 ATS, 17-35 ATS last 3 seasons, when playing against a team with a winning record. BYU already beat them by 14pts at home, and they also swept Wyoming last season. BYU is to dominant in the paint with Araujo and Meeks for Wyoming to find to many second chance shots or to stop the MWC leading scorer in Araujo. This lack of stopping and then competing with BYU's big men down low is what I feel will prevent Wyoming's chance for Revenge today. Wyoming can shoot from behind the Arc, but in games like these, I rather take the team with the higher percentage shots and multiple opportunities off the board. BYU should SWEEP the Cowboys for a second consecutive year. This is a different time of the season, and I am not afraid of the earlier road losses by BYU.
-I cant believe that this line is this LOW. Based on a power rating system using also HCA and the current line, Texas should be at least a Double Digit Favorite in this one. Still, they are not and thats enough for me to jump on the Longhorns who is way better then these Cyclones. I am in no way concerned with Iowa St's 12-1 home win record, as Texas is a veteran road tested team. Iowa St's recent 3 game slide will continue vs this Top Conf foe. Iowa St is currently 0-3 ATS vs good Offenses teams scoring 77+ pts per game. Also, for some reason, they simply arent good ATS on Saturday games as they are currently 3-5 ATS, and 8-19 ATS the last 3 seasons in Saturday games. Also, in Feb games they are struggling as they are currently 0-3 ATS and 5-11 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played in this month. Seems like they also get caught like Miami, by better teams during this time of the year, who are prepping for their run to March Madness. Today, Iowa St's lack of talent to match up especially with Texas's backcourt, will catch up to them. This game should open up and remain close in the first half, but the second half expect Texas to pull away winning by double digits. Iowa St will have to wait to its next game to rebound from their disappointing slide, as Texas is simply to HOT right now for them to cool down.
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***OK Gang, as I stated, this is the First Set for Saturday. I will be posting the Second Set later in the Day in this thread. So for all who are interested in them, you can check back later for them. Also Gang, my writeups as you know is usually jam packed with info and fairly lengthy, but due to this huge card, I had to cut back on some of the info as I didnt want to be writing a Book. All the work was done completely, but the writeups will just have what I feel is the most important points. So with that said, Lets do some damage first with these plays. Good Luck and Aloha Co-Captain.
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[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 14, 2004 at 11:47 PM.]
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on February 15, 2004 at 03:11 AM.]
