TOP PLAYOFF PLAYS FOR SATURDAY!

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Gang, I hope that so far the New Year has turned out a profit for all. If not, dont worry there is alot of opportunities for you to capitalize on to change that negative into a positive one. This is week provides such an opportunity for you to benefit from. I will start my Saturday off with a play on the better home teams who are well rested and re-energized to take care of business. So far my Playoff Record is 4W-0L= +18 Units.

For now, this is my first play, and the Biggest one for Saturday. Based on the past histories of how the Home teams has fared in the second round of the Playoffs, is something that I cannot ignore. I am jumping on this now before the Public moves it any higher. So here it is.


7 Unit 7 pt Teaser Play of the Week w/:(Big fvckin loser)



St Louis E & NE +1 (any ties=push)



-I will be back to release my side plays with analysis later in this thread. So check back for additional updates. Aloha and GL , Co-Captain.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 10, 2004 at 08:28 PM.]

 

[blairkiel]

i like the call as long as TN does not show up. this might also mean you need faded.

 

[Co-Captain]

blair kiel, dont quite get your last statement. But as far as your first is concerned, I am expecting Tenn to show up, its the playoffs and to expect less than that is simply ridiculous. GL to you.CC.

 

[Kojak]

good luck on your teaser. By teasing St. Louis with either Tenn or NE should both cash. Best of luck.

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Kojak, I totally agree with what you say about teasing St. Louis w/ either Tenn +13 or NE +1 is both winners. I threw it back and forth for a bit, and it came down to NE and that dangerous home field adv with all the elements that the visitor has to deal with just seem to be to much. I also couldnt go against probably one of the best coaches in the league in Bill Bellichek. He is a Defensive guru and the results of his mostly no name defensive squad holding its last 6 opponents at to a total of 22pts is just staggering. Just to much for the Titans to deal with, and I havent even mention anything about the players yet. Unreal advantage for the Pats! Still, with the weather and good Defenses in this one getting 13pts is also a gift. But to me the safer play was to back the Pats at +1.

 

[Co-Captain]

ADDING:

Ok gang, here is my first side play for Saturday. I like the Rams in this game today. This home dominance they seem to enjoy is never good news for any opponent who has to play here. They are the real deal on the turf and they will show why it is that they provide the greatest show.

Carolina is a solid team and they should be commended for their season, but unfortunately it will end today in St Louis. Take the St Louis Rams -7(buy .5pt) for 4 Unit Play.

Heres primarily why I like the Rams in this one. The Panthers needs to do what they do best and that is to run the ball. They will try to use the run to control the clock and keep this potent Off of the Rams off the field. Many Carolina backers are buying into the fact that the Rams arent good against stopping the run and thus this is their shot at pulling the upset.

Well sorry guys, that wont be so easy as it may appear. The Rams Def have already been tested by teams at home who are better than the Panthers at running the ball. This year at home, they have faced and beaten Baltimore w/ the #1 ranked Run Off, GB w/ the #3, Minny w/ the #4, SF w/ the #5, Seattle w/ the #10, Cincy w/ the #13, and Atlanta w/ the #14 ranked Run Off. Carolina ranks #7 in running the ball. Big deal, the Rams beat 4 teams better than them in that category, and there is nothing special about this Carolina team that tells me St Louis wont be able to handle their rush attack as well.

Now, what about stopping the pass. Well, the Panthers rank 21st in Pass Off. But the Rams Def in the process of beating teams who can run the ball, have also been able to beat teams at home who have a better overall passing game then Carolina has. These are the teams they faced and beat who rank higher than Carolina in Passing Off. Minny w/ the #3 ranked Pass Off., Seattle w/ the #7, Cincy w/ the #11, SF w/ the #12, and GB w/ the #16 ranked Pass Off. Still think that the Rams Def is questionable. I didnt think so.

All in all, I dont see how this Panther squad will be able to keep up with this high scoring Ram team. They simply dont have the right type of Off to accomplish this. And their def, though solid upfront, isnt where this teams weakness lies. Their defensive weakness is in the secondary and that is where the Rams will feast off of today. I see the Rams coming out fast and once they have a double digit lead on this Panther team, it will all but over, as now the weaknesses of the Panthers on Off, the pass, will play right into the hands of this proven and quick Ram Def. Rams win this one 31-13. Aloha and GL , CC.

(LOSE)

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 10, 2004 at 08:15 PM.]

 

[brendanjack]

hey co check out skybook 7pt 2 teamers ties win

 

[Co-Captain]

brendanjack, I think you need to recheck their rules, as I seen that a two team teaser with a tie and a win is considered a push. Aloha.

 

[Meanstreak]

Greetings Co-Cap ... I don't post much here (there are already alot of solid cappers) but the posts I have made are all teasers. I find as the season progresses and especially in the playoffs, teasers provide a distinct advantage and good insurance in case of those 'bad breaks' ... concerning your teaser here ...

One of my most successful 'tools of the trade' is a comparison/analysis of the coach/QB tandem facing each other.

In the case of the Rams/Panthers game how would you compare the Coach/QB tandems of each team ?

I will reserve my analysis until heariing yours ... but needless to say you probably see where I am going with this ... aloha.

 

[brendanjack]

hey co you need to call them then cause im not misleading you the juice is a bit higher but it is correct i have often made these plays with them no bs

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Meanstreak, as far as your question of how I compare the coaches and Qb's in this game to eachother. Well, they are completely opposite in their approach to the Offense. Martz and the Rams are a pass first, pass second team. His approach to the run, is to do it sometime in between passing first and passing second. The RB is seen as another weapon to pass to, but also is needed for other duties which are to keep the Dl and LB's honest, then to pass block. The Rams QB's Bulger or Warner are both excellent for this type of Off, and it is the right Off for the personal they have at RB and at WR. The Rams simply believe in utilizing their weapons and will come out straight at you until you stop them. With this type of approach, they also believe in utilizing their matchup advantages, and with their quick strike approach, they will attack any mismatches which are present.

Coach Fox on the other hand, likes to run first and pass later. The later is most often only if needed. Still, eventhough they have the ability to open the offense up. Fox will not change to much or sway away much from his desire to play a ball control game with the run. He believes that the run will open up the pass, and it is the line of scrimmage which is his goal at controlling first. QB Delhomme is perfect in my opinion to this type of Off. He is not one who I believe have the mechanics to be successful in the Rams type of Off. But he can lead a workhorse type of Off and give you just enough in the way of a passing Off, as long as the running game is successful. But, if it is left up to him to win the game with his arm alone, they are in trouble.

Bottom line is these two coachs philosophies are like night and day. One likes to come at you and the other likes to control you. One is conservative and the other is not. One uses clock control and the other uses the clock to tell the time. In my opinion, I like the team who will come at you and with a non-conservative approach. The winner of the game is the one that scores the most points, so if that is the case, why not take the team who will take as many chances at scoring points. Seems to be the logical approach in this type of matchups.

 

[Kojak]

co captain,

fyi, being a big Rams fan I follow them very closely. I can tell you the Rams are more of a balanced team this year. Though they are 1 or 2 in total passing yards and rank near the bottom in rushing this year, in terms of plays run, Martz is more balanced with Bulger at qb with the ration more 55-60 % pass, 40-45 % run as he controls the game more hoping to avoid the turnover with Bulger. Also, in big games this year for Rams, which would include Seattle, Baltimore,Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Minnesota, Martz shortens game in 3rd and 4th quarters with lead by running Faulk 2 out of every 3 plays. Hope this helps.

 

[mr.teaser]

The dogs will be barking today!!

 

[Meanstreak]

Thanks CC for your timely and cogent response. You are a perfect example of why I do not post more, my approach is much more simplistic and subjective.

From my way of thinking, NFL football ultimately boils down to a battle of wits and wills. More specifically, the mind of the coach and the will of the QB. These two are the nerve centre for the team, as they go so goes the rest. As in war, there is no substitute for a 5 star general to instill confidence and make his troops believe.

Using last weeks games to illustrate my point, I would suggest the battle tested, and superior coach/QB tandems prevailed. Never mind schemes, and tendencies and plays etc - just the pure intangibles here ...

Holmgren/Hasselback vs Sherman/Favre ... although a slight coaching advantage could be given to Holmgren (although as of late he has been living more off reputation) the QB advantage (in those intangible terms) were solidly in favour of GB ... GB wins.

Fisher/McNair vs Billick/Wright ...
coaches here are a bit of saw off, although, I give a slight nod to Fisher but the QB comparison was not even close ... McNair the warrior carries the day.

Parcells/Carter vs Fox/Delhomme ...
The clincher here being Carter the most inferior QB in the land ... easy W for the Panthers.

Dungy/Manning vs Shanny/Jake the Fake ...
need I say anymore here ?

Taking a look to this week-end's action ...

Martz/Bulger vs Fox/Delhomme ...

As has been pointed out by many here, Martz is one of the 5 worst coaches in the league. He is far too arrogant and cocky to overcome his bumbling managing style. Bulger has yet to even start a playoff game. The pressure, at home especially, will be squarely on his shoulders. Can he come thru ? Maybe, but he is an unknown quantity that couold just as easily fold as succeed. On the other sideline, I have much respect for Fox. He is the protype field general, much smarter than Martz to be sure. Delhomme has already started and WON a playoff game ... he will be much looser and confident than Bulger in my humble opinion. Advantage squarely belonging to the wild cats from Carolina ...
so in terms of teasers I could turn the TV off and sleep well getting nearly two touch downs with a team that could possibly win here ...

Also, from a pure gambling perspective, there is a stat that says 82% of the time the spread has no bearing on the game ... that is to say the winner of the game covers the spread 82% of the time. So if you strongly believe the Rams will win ... no need to tease ... and in fact it would be giving the house an unecessary advantage in terms of the extra vig.

Fisher/McNair vs Belichek/Brady ... from my of thinkng this is the closest matchup of the weekend ... both have excellent coaches and battle tested QB's ... I would feel mucho confident in teasing the underdog here as well to 12.5 ... I really cannot see any scenario that has the Titans getting blown out here ... provided health is not a concern for Co-MVP McNair ...

To make a long post shorter ... be careful with those teasers ... you leave yourself very little room for error when it is a MUST for your side to win.

I look forward to any further insights you may provide me.

Peace.

 

[Co-Captain]

Mr Teaser, sorry my friend, but tomorrow is the Dogs day to bark. Today, they will Meow! LOL.


Meanstreak, I appreciate you opinions. I think you should share your own thoughts more with others here in the forum. I haven't seen anyone who really approached the game like you have. Still, as far as my teaser today goes, I really feel room for error is not needed here today. The points are very tempting to take, hense the TEASER, but these home teams and their homefields are to much to deal with. It is visitor who will need to play error free ball today, but that is almost impossible to do. That gives the home teams the edge again. Aloha, CC.

p.s. just my opinion, add into your mix of QB/Coach with a Solid Def or a Solid Def Coach, and your percentage of winning I can almost guarantee will increase. GL

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 10, 2004 at 05:43 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

ADDING:


3 Unit Play on:


Over 23- for the 2nd half. (WINNER)



-situation favors the Rams opening the game up more.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 10, 2004 at 08:16 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

ADDING:


3 Unit Play on:


NE -6(LOSE)



-I like my odds with Bellichek, Brady, and the Blitzing Def of NE, not to forget that freezing weather, to give me the win and cover in this one. GL and Aloha CC.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 10, 2004 at 11:26 PM.]

 

[Co-Captain]

ADDING:


3 Unit Play on:


NE -3 for the 1st half.(WINNER)



-GL to all, Aloha CC.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 10, 2004 at 09:40 PM.]

 

[IDENTITY]

tenn i REALLY like tenn in this one...hate to see ya play pats...

 

[Co-Captain]

ADDING:


3 Unit Play on:


Over 33.5 Titans/NE(LOSE)

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 10, 2004 at 11:26 PM.]