Top 25 follow up and ATS info

[russ1945]

So following week 5 we find that 9 teams in the AP Preseason Top 25 have dropped out. Those teams are Auburn, Oregon, Arizona St, G Tech, Ark, Wisconsin, Stanford, Arizona, Mizzou, and Tenn. In my offseason thread I point out that is about average. I also point out that betting against the teams that drop out is profitable. To date these 9 teams have a combined ATS record of 14-31 (32%).

They have been replaced by Utah, Texas A&M, Florida, NW, Michigan, Okie St, Iowa, Cal, and BSU. I also point out that betting on the teams who replace those who fall is also profitable. To date these 9 teams have a combined ATS record of 28-15 (66%).

Wisconsin, Miss St, and W Virginia dropped out after week 5 was completed.

The following teams received votes butdid not make this weeks Top 25. Here they are with their ATS records: Oregon (2-3), Duke (3-2), Houston (3-1), Temple (3-1), Memphis (2-2-1), Navy (4-0), Arizona St (1-4), Miss St (3-2), W Virginia (2-2), Texas Tech 3-1-1), BYU (4-1), Kansas St (2-2), and Mizzou (1-4).

To date the following teams have no losses ATS: Navy (4-0), So Miss (5-0).

To date the following teams have no wins ATS: Auburn (0-5), UCF (0-5), Fresno St (0-4-1), Michigan St (0-5), N Texas (0-4), Old Dominion (0-5) and UTEP (0-4-1)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Russ, thanks for the info... but is it not obvious that betting against teams that fall in ranking should be profitable? ... i need to know what teams will fall in ranking the NEXT two weeks instead of the past FIVE weeks.....

 

[russ1945]

Russ, thanks for the info... but is it not obvious that betting against teams that fall in ranking should be profitable? ... i need to know what teams will fall in ranking the NEXT two weeks instead of the past FIVE weeks.....

That is why I give out that info in the off season. It is up to you to pick who will fall and who will rise. It is not about just falling in ranking it is about falling completely out of the Top 25. You have to teach yourself how to apply the info.

 

[russ1945]

I have just updated my spreadsheet. Through week 5 the top 25 teams in my system are 83-55 ATS (61%). The top 12 in my system are 44-11 ATS. They are Florida, Houston, Iowa, Mid Tenn St, Navy, NC State, N Dame, Oklahoma, S. Cal, Stanford, Texas A&M, and Utah.

 

[russ1945]

If you take a close look at the current AP Top 25 you will find that 8 teams have one loss. One more loss may knock them out. Also Toledo has no losses to date and even one loss my knock them out.

Look at the Big 12 for an example. Baylor still has to play W Virginia, and then faces Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St and TCU all right in a row. TCU still has to play Kansas St, W Vir, Oklahoma St, and then Oklahoma and Baylor back to back to end the season. Oklahoma still has to play Kansas St, Texas Tech, and then finishes up playing Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma St right in a row. I don’t see Oklahoma St getting through the rest of their schedule and hanging in the top 25 as they still have to play Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma plus they were damned lucky to get by Kansas St.

So strength of schedule is now coming into play. Alabama set the pace by beating Georgia last weekend. LSU still has to play Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. So it is evident that the top 25 will be changing constantly from now on. Ohio St is showing vulnerability as is Michigan St, Ole Miss, and Georgia. This will be a very interesting season from this point on and many things will change and injuries could crop up also.

BOL

 

[russ1945]

Looking over last week’s stats and found a few things worth mentioning:

Notre Dame outgained Clemson 437 to 296 and held them to 97 yds passing. 4 TO’s did them in.

San Jose St outgained Auburn 413 to 339. 4 TO’s did them in.

Baylor outgained Texas Tech 680 to 636. Again TT had 4 TO’s.

Other teams with 4 TO’s are Ole Miss, N. ILL, Hawaii, Georgia, Miami-O, Air Force. As bad as that was the following teams had 5 TO’s Rice, UCF, W Virginia, and UTEP.

Minnesota had only 173 total yards against NW on 55 plays.

The following teams exceed 600 yds in total offense: Texas Tech, Baylor, and Houston.

Fresno St had only 89 total yds against San Diego St. Virginia Tech had only 100 total yds against Pitt.

 

[indiana]

R/1945...........you thoughts are a read each week...........appreciate the info...........BOL with this weeks action............indy

 

[GoSooners]

I don't know if there is a site that figures these, but I think just as important as who is covering the spread, i would like to know who is covering their spreads by the largest margins. That sometimes tells me more about a team than simply their ATS record. Teams can have a good ATS record against some weak opponents. But maybe more important is how convincingly they are covering those games...As for my top teams, I think the best one loss team right now other than maybe Bama is Stanford. I think they've found something since that NW loss..

 

[russ1945]

I don't know if there is a site that figures these, but I think just as important as who is covering the spread, i would like to know who is covering their spreads by the largest margins. That sometimes tells me more about a team than simply their ATS record. Teams can have a good ATS record against some weak opponents. But maybe more important is how convincingly they are covering those games...As for my top teams, I think the best one loss team right now other than maybe Bama is Stanford. I think they've found something since that NW loss..

I think the teams with one loss most like to get at least one more are Michigan, Georgia, UCLA and Okie St is going to lose more than just two.

 

[phantom888]

I agree with that. Stanford is a must look at every week. We know they have brains, but if they've found some heart, they could be dangerous.