This has been a strange year for me since I was out of the country for the first 3 weeks of the season. Trip of a lifetime but it was tough missing the first 3 weeks of my favorite past time. I had a couple week one plays that did pretty bad so I'm glad I took week 2 and 3 off. Last week was good but I didn't post my picks so I'll stop there...
La Tech -3.5 over The Warriors *
This is more of a fade of UH than a play on La Tech. Not sure what the stats are for teams traveling this many miles and covering but I will tell you it's not good. La Tech has had a few tough matchups and it was enough to drop their value and sometimes I can't pass when I see a bargin.
Duke -16.5 over VTech (Wait for 17 or better) **
Last week I went against some of the hyped and hott teams and it paid off so I'm not changing my strategy. As a rule I do not like going against VTech but this week I think it's a good spot. It's on the road, they don't score a lot on offense, have a inconsistent QB, and they are giving over 2 td's. Besides, Tech will not be "UP" for this game and Durham is the kind of place that can make a team feel sleepy at a noon kickoff.
Penn St. -6 over Illinois ****
I have talked a lot about this match up in the game threads but quite simply, this is one of the best bets I have seen in over 2 years. Maybe that is a bad thing and I'm the big, joe public idiot but I know the Illini inside and out. They have been my team since I was knee high to a grasshopper and when I bet against them (hardly ever bet "on" them as a rule) I have a sick record. I knew there was no chance of them covering against OSU last week (even though I did second guess myself a little due to rain and line movement) and this week is no different. The only difference is PSU would be -10 or more if they would have beat Iowa. Illinois was favored by 7.5 pts against Mizzou and got blown out, Illinois St. racked up over 400 yards on them the next week with a back up QB, they did not score one point against OSU in week 4 and could have easily lost 50-0, so why in the hell would a good Penn St team with a solid defense not shred this team? PSU for all we know could be the best team the Illini have faced YTD.
The Cuse +6.5 over South Florida **
Much like the Duke Vtech game, sell high! Besides USF is already thinking about Cincy and the Cuse is worthless right? Yeah, that's what everyone thought over the summer, including myself. At home with points, this team will go toe to toe with any Big East team and can cover some spreads. Step out of your comfort zone and side with the odds makers, you'll be surprised how much more you'll win over time.
I'll have a few more plays before kick off...
La Tech -3.5 over The Warriors *
This is more of a fade of UH than a play on La Tech. Not sure what the stats are for teams traveling this many miles and covering but I will tell you it's not good. La Tech has had a few tough matchups and it was enough to drop their value and sometimes I can't pass when I see a bargin.
Duke -16.5 over VTech (Wait for 17 or better) **
Last week I went against some of the hyped and hott teams and it paid off so I'm not changing my strategy. As a rule I do not like going against VTech but this week I think it's a good spot. It's on the road, they don't score a lot on offense, have a inconsistent QB, and they are giving over 2 td's. Besides, Tech will not be "UP" for this game and Durham is the kind of place that can make a team feel sleepy at a noon kickoff.
Penn St. -6 over Illinois ****
I have talked a lot about this match up in the game threads but quite simply, this is one of the best bets I have seen in over 2 years. Maybe that is a bad thing and I'm the big, joe public idiot but I know the Illini inside and out. They have been my team since I was knee high to a grasshopper and when I bet against them (hardly ever bet "on" them as a rule) I have a sick record. I knew there was no chance of them covering against OSU last week (even though I did second guess myself a little due to rain and line movement) and this week is no different. The only difference is PSU would be -10 or more if they would have beat Iowa. Illinois was favored by 7.5 pts against Mizzou and got blown out, Illinois St. racked up over 400 yards on them the next week with a back up QB, they did not score one point against OSU in week 4 and could have easily lost 50-0, so why in the hell would a good Penn St team with a solid defense not shred this team? PSU for all we know could be the best team the Illini have faced YTD.
The Cuse +6.5 over South Florida **
Much like the Duke Vtech game, sell high! Besides USF is already thinking about Cincy and the Cuse is worthless right? Yeah, that's what everyone thought over the summer, including myself. At home with points, this team will go toe to toe with any Big East team and can cover some spreads. Step out of your comfort zone and side with the odds makers, you'll be surprised how much more you'll win over time.
I'll have a few more plays before kick off...
