Too many on the Heat 1H

[jdub6810]

It's one thing when Ace is on a play (small play by the way...) but when Boxslayer, who is correctly indicating Dallas is the better team, takes the heat, then something is up. & Gyno? fuggeduboudit
Ace had an outstanding breakdown of game 1, showing how, based on game averages, the Mavs should definitely cover 2.5 in the first half of game 1. Didn't happen!
Neither will this play.
Fact is, the half could go either way. It simply depends on who hits their shots early. It's impossible to know who has the hot hand tonight. But the gambling tendancies seem to bend towards the unpredictable. & the boat carrying all those first half heat backers is getting top-heavy.
It's too easy to pick the heat first half! Making the gambling money is HARD, not EASY!
Hell even spreadbeater is afraid to pick a side tonight.
Here's my lousy pick (scroll my posts for my lousy record): Mavs first half, Mavs +4, & Mavs ML. This team is simply better than the Heat in most facets, (not all) & that is all the analysis needed.

GL

 

[Bookie Buster]

I am with you$$$

 

[Boxslayer]

Mavs are the better team. They just match up so well against the Heat.

But, road basketball is tough in the NBA any way you slice it. Heat at Bobcats. Spurs at Hawks. Mavs at Heat. When teams get out of their comfort zone, they aren't the same.

If the Heat want any chance in this one they have to:

1) Speed up the pace. They need more easy baskets. It's a struggle. Heat wanted to slow the pace down, now Im not so sure. Mavs will adjust to this 2nd half. Heat love to run with JWill 1st half, and play defense with Payton 2nd half.
2) Get Wade more involved. I fully expect to see Wade doing more shooting, more driving and less dishing.
3) Shaq 1st half is always better than Shaq 2nd half.
4) Heat energy, playing in front of their home crowd.
5) They cant fall behind 1st half, they will be at each others throat and quit. They are down 2-0 they need to win this game. Just because they want to win, doesnt mean they are going to win. But if i had to pick 1st half or game, i take heat 1st half.

thats what i meant when i sort of contradicted myself. good luck!

 

[Boxslayer]

also for the record, i just saw ace ace's play. I dont follow ace ace in basketball, i follow him in football. My play has nothing to do with his play or anyone else.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Mavs are the better team. They just match up so well against the Heat.

But, road basketball is tough in the NBA any way you slice it. Heat at Bobcats. Spurs at Hawks. Mavs at Heat. When teams get out of their comfort zone, they aren't the same.

If the Heat want any chance in this one they have to:

1) Speed up the pace. They need more easy baskets. It's a struggle. Heat wanted to slow the pace down, now Im not so sure. Mavs will adjust to this 2nd half. Heat love to run with JWill 1st half, and play defense with Payton 2nd half.
2) Get Wade more involved. I fully expect to see Wade doing more shooting, more driving and less dishing.
3) Shaq 1st half is always better than Shaq 2nd half.
4) Heat energy, playing in front of their home crowd.
5) They cant fall behind 1st half, they will be at each others throat and quit. They are down 2-0 they need to win this game. Just because they want to win, doesnt mean they are going to win. But if i had to pick 1st half or game, i take heat 1st half.

thats what i meant when i sort of contradicted myself. good luck!

I AGREE 100%

ALSO

LINEOFF TELLS A STORY

ALL GAME

DALLAS AT HOME IS +130 VS MIA AWAY -27 = 157 POINTS DIFF

NOW

MIA AT HOME +7 VS DALLAS AWAY +20 = +13....ALL GAME THIS YEAR


ACE-ACE

 

[Tulsa]

Hey!!! I love this! I love all you guys and I've only had a little to drink!

This is what this forum is about. Point and counter point. Different takes on the matter and respect shown. Thanks to all of you for making this forum what it is!

What is funny is Boxslayer and then Ace have different capping reasons for their play: Boxslayer a VERY good analyst that I wonder why he doesn't write for ESPN or somesuch and Ace with trends. THEN jdub6810 has a capping of the game based on a LOT of people talking Heat 1st half (which may sound silly but is one of the factors I use to judge plays.) LOL!!! We have three different ways to look at this and them ain't all.

Thanks guys. I, myself, am still weighing this one and don't know what will be played by me...if at all. Thanks again and good luck. tulsa

 

[gynecologist]

I have never been this confident of a play in months.


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[jdub6810]

Ace-Ace posted in my thread! BONG!!!!!

anywho no hard feelings to anyone. The Mavs kinda remind me of the 2004 Boston Red Sox. Years & years, they lost to the Yanks. They finally break through the jinx, & they simply wrecked the Cards in the world series. The Cards weren't playing poorly. A little beat up, but nobody saw a sweep coming.
Mavs had this nemesis called the Spurs, who they finally overcame. They did it in San Antonio & that is a big fat statement. Since that win i was certain the mavericks were the NBA champs. They are firing on all cylinders & the Heat so far have no game to match up.
At worst, Heat win one game. But i'm not convinced. I smell sweep, & tonight's game will tell us if this series is over. I think so...

 

[THEGAME9000]

dallas is the better team and they're catching more than 2 buckets.
if miami wins, it will be because they had the ball last.
some players just are'nt meant to have rings, and they are all on miami....payton, morning, walker....etc.
i'm not sure but were the magic swept in shaq's first finals appearance?
maybe it happens in his last....

dallas and over.

GAME.

 

[Boxslayer]

Thanks for the post ACE-ACE.

Tulsa, I agree 100%. Forums are exactly for this purpose. Point and counter point. Respectful agreements, and respectful disagreements. I have a much different "capping" style than Ace. I LOVE agreeing with him. I'm hoping we have all of the angles covered here from analyzing, emotional factors, psychological factors, statistical factors, desperation factors....

It all comes down to the court though. Hopefully, the Heat will make more baskets.

One more thing to throw in there...

The Heat didnt get any bounces last game. Stackhouse fade away falling down 3 pointer. Wade dribbling through his legs out of bounds. Heat missing I dont know how many layups. Whatever. The Mavs are a better team, but the Heat arent 30 points worse either. The mavs got a lot of bounces go their way. I'm hoping that evens out tonight.