Tom Brady is no longer a top-5 QB
Why the Patriots signal-caller can no longer be considered among NFL's best
By Sam Monson | Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. The elite quarterback Mount Rushmore has been in place for a few years now, a comforting constant in an NFL of consistent turnover and change. But it might be time to wipe one of those four faces off our mountain of elite play. The Tom Brady of 2014 no longer belongs on that monument.
On the surface, this sounds crazy. Brady has been quarterback royalty since he burst onto the scene in 2001, at the start of his second year, when Drew Bledsoe went down. Since that season -- along with the Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP that it brought -- Brady has been a constant at the summit of elite quarterback play. He is a surefire Hall of Famer.
However, his decline is well underway, and it's showing up in one key aspect of his game in particular. Let's take a look at why Brady is no longer a top-five NFL QB, the QBs who should be ranked ahead of him, and what it means for the Patriots this season.
Feeling the heat
Pressure affects every quarterback. The difference between the best quarterbacks and those who just keep the seat warm for the next guy is how shallow the drop-off is between plays from a clean pocket and plays when they feel the pressure. The best quarterbacks are accurate on about 70 percent of passes under pressure (completion percentage adjusted for drops less throwaways, spikes, etc.). Manning had an accuracy rating of 69.0 percent in 2013, and at Brady's peak in 2010 he led the league with an accuracy rating of 70.7 percent on passes under pressure. Since then, however, he has been declining steadily. Last year he was accurate on just 57.6 percent of passes under pressure, 28th in the league.
That accuracy isn't just an abstract concept, either; it results in major negative plays and turnovers, the most damaging plays an offense can have. Brady has been one of the most careful passers of the football ever -- in NFL history, he is second only to Aaron Rodgers in career interception percentage -- but during the past four seasons, Brady's touchdown-to-interception ratio under pressure has gone from 6-to-1 to 4-to-1 to 2-to-1 to 1-to-1 in 2013, with five touchdowns and five interceptions. Pressure is forcing Brady into mistakes -- major mistakes that he never used to make.
His PFF grade -- which is a play-by-play grading of his play in a season -- was plus-33.2 when he was kept clean in 2013, but plummeted to minus-14.8 when he felt pressure. His passer rating experienced a similar fall, dropping more than 30 points from 96.3 to 64.0.
That is a significant swing, and it highlights the fact that Brady needs protection to be successful at this stage of his career.
People point to his lack of receivers in 2013 as a reason for his comparative down year, but it's worth noting that it was also the poorest performance from the New England offensive line for several years. The unit posted its worst pass-blocking efficiency figure (a measure of the sacks, hits and hurries surrendered per pass-protecting snaps) since PFF has been grading tape, and at best the unit was in the middle of the pack when it came to protecting Brady.
Maybe that will improve in 2014, but the point is that an offensive line merely average in pass protection is enough to propel Brady into a down season at this stage in his career.
Avoiding trouble
While Peyton Manning's style mitigates the effect of pressure better than any quarterback in the game, the same is not true for Brady. Manning has an unparalleled ability to sense when pressure is developing and get rid of the football before bad things happen. He was sacked a league-low 17 times in 2013 and pressured on a league-low 22.7 percent of his drop-backs. You could argue this is due to the Denver offensive line, but the percentage of pressure snaps that resulted in a sack of Manning was also a league-low 11 percent, so I think we can see the obvious trend there.
Brady is not in Manning's class when it comes to mitigating pressure. Brady was sacked more than twice as often as Manning last year despite experiencing pressure on just 10 percent more plays. The percentage of pressure snaps that wound up in a sack of Brady was a much larger figure of 18.4 percent, middle of the pack (14th) compared with Manning's league-leading mark.
This isn't to revisit the age-old Manning versus Brady debate, but simply to point out that at this stage in each player's career, Manning is better-equipped to fight off the effects of Father Time than Brady is. There are other factors at work, but it is more than coincidence that Manning enjoyed the best statistical season of his career at age 37, while Brady (a year younger) struggled through one of his worst.
Brady is still extremely effective when he is in rhythm within the offense, but when things start to break down, he is no longer an efficient passer. When he had the ball in his hands for 2.6 seconds or more in 2013, he completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, worst among 16-game starters. His passer rating on those throws was 69.2, worse than all but a handful of replacement-level starters. It is true that his performance spiked when he had a healthy Rob Gronkowski, but that same statement would likely apply to every other quarterback in football; such is the dominance of one of the league's premier tight ends.
Brady's current place
There is no doubt that Brady is still a good quarterback -- his peak was so high that even in the midst of decline there is a lot of room to fall before it becomes a problem -- but there is little doubt at this point that we are witnessing his decline in action. Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. He remains very good, but if the decline continues at the same rate, it won't be long before that is no longer true.
Manning is the standard by which all quarterbacks are measured, and Rodgers and Brees remain worthy of places on the quarterback Mount Rushmore, but Brady has slipped below passers like Philip Rivers (if he maintains his 2013 performance level) and Ben Roethlisberger. Russell Wilson has already led his team to the Super Bowl and has shown a Brady-like knack for making plays at the right time. Andrew Luck is well on his way to surpassing Brady if the Indianapolis Colts can give him a little more help.
Brady remains good enough to keep the Patriots in the Super Bowl mix; he won't become a bad player overnight. But for the first time, it appears that Brady's career has a shelf life, and time is ticking down on it. Perhaps the Pats drafted second-round QB Jimmy Garoppolo at just the right time.
Why the Patriots signal-caller can no longer be considered among NFL's best
By Sam Monson | Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. The elite quarterback Mount Rushmore has been in place for a few years now, a comforting constant in an NFL of consistent turnover and change. But it might be time to wipe one of those four faces off our mountain of elite play. The Tom Brady of 2014 no longer belongs on that monument.
On the surface, this sounds crazy. Brady has been quarterback royalty since he burst onto the scene in 2001, at the start of his second year, when Drew Bledsoe went down. Since that season -- along with the Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP that it brought -- Brady has been a constant at the summit of elite quarterback play. He is a surefire Hall of Famer.
However, his decline is well underway, and it's showing up in one key aspect of his game in particular. Let's take a look at why Brady is no longer a top-five NFL QB, the QBs who should be ranked ahead of him, and what it means for the Patriots this season.
Feeling the heat
Pressure affects every quarterback. The difference between the best quarterbacks and those who just keep the seat warm for the next guy is how shallow the drop-off is between plays from a clean pocket and plays when they feel the pressure. The best quarterbacks are accurate on about 70 percent of passes under pressure (completion percentage adjusted for drops less throwaways, spikes, etc.). Manning had an accuracy rating of 69.0 percent in 2013, and at Brady's peak in 2010 he led the league with an accuracy rating of 70.7 percent on passes under pressure. Since then, however, he has been declining steadily. Last year he was accurate on just 57.6 percent of passes under pressure, 28th in the league.
That accuracy isn't just an abstract concept, either; it results in major negative plays and turnovers, the most damaging plays an offense can have. Brady has been one of the most careful passers of the football ever -- in NFL history, he is second only to Aaron Rodgers in career interception percentage -- but during the past four seasons, Brady's touchdown-to-interception ratio under pressure has gone from 6-to-1 to 4-to-1 to 2-to-1 to 1-to-1 in 2013, with five touchdowns and five interceptions. Pressure is forcing Brady into mistakes -- major mistakes that he never used to make.
His PFF grade -- which is a play-by-play grading of his play in a season -- was plus-33.2 when he was kept clean in 2013, but plummeted to minus-14.8 when he felt pressure. His passer rating experienced a similar fall, dropping more than 30 points from 96.3 to 64.0.
That is a significant swing, and it highlights the fact that Brady needs protection to be successful at this stage of his career.
People point to his lack of receivers in 2013 as a reason for his comparative down year, but it's worth noting that it was also the poorest performance from the New England offensive line for several years. The unit posted its worst pass-blocking efficiency figure (a measure of the sacks, hits and hurries surrendered per pass-protecting snaps) since PFF has been grading tape, and at best the unit was in the middle of the pack when it came to protecting Brady.
Maybe that will improve in 2014, but the point is that an offensive line merely average in pass protection is enough to propel Brady into a down season at this stage in his career.
Avoiding trouble
While Peyton Manning's style mitigates the effect of pressure better than any quarterback in the game, the same is not true for Brady. Manning has an unparalleled ability to sense when pressure is developing and get rid of the football before bad things happen. He was sacked a league-low 17 times in 2013 and pressured on a league-low 22.7 percent of his drop-backs. You could argue this is due to the Denver offensive line, but the percentage of pressure snaps that resulted in a sack of Manning was also a league-low 11 percent, so I think we can see the obvious trend there.
Brady is not in Manning's class when it comes to mitigating pressure. Brady was sacked more than twice as often as Manning last year despite experiencing pressure on just 10 percent more plays. The percentage of pressure snaps that wound up in a sack of Brady was a much larger figure of 18.4 percent, middle of the pack (14th) compared with Manning's league-leading mark.
This isn't to revisit the age-old Manning versus Brady debate, but simply to point out that at this stage in each player's career, Manning is better-equipped to fight off the effects of Father Time than Brady is. There are other factors at work, but it is more than coincidence that Manning enjoyed the best statistical season of his career at age 37, while Brady (a year younger) struggled through one of his worst.
Brady is still extremely effective when he is in rhythm within the offense, but when things start to break down, he is no longer an efficient passer. When he had the ball in his hands for 2.6 seconds or more in 2013, he completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, worst among 16-game starters. His passer rating on those throws was 69.2, worse than all but a handful of replacement-level starters. It is true that his performance spiked when he had a healthy Rob Gronkowski, but that same statement would likely apply to every other quarterback in football; such is the dominance of one of the league's premier tight ends.
Brady's current place
There is no doubt that Brady is still a good quarterback -- his peak was so high that even in the midst of decline there is a lot of room to fall before it becomes a problem -- but there is little doubt at this point that we are witnessing his decline in action. Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. He remains very good, but if the decline continues at the same rate, it won't be long before that is no longer true.
Manning is the standard by which all quarterbacks are measured, and Rodgers and Brees remain worthy of places on the quarterback Mount Rushmore, but Brady has slipped below passers like Philip Rivers (if he maintains his 2013 performance level) and Ben Roethlisberger. Russell Wilson has already led his team to the Super Bowl and has shown a Brady-like knack for making plays at the right time. Andrew Luck is well on his way to surpassing Brady if the Indianapolis Colts can give him a little more help.
Brady remains good enough to keep the Patriots in the Super Bowl mix; he won't become a bad player overnight. But for the first time, it appears that Brady's career has a shelf life, and time is ticking down on it. Perhaps the Pats drafted second-round QB Jimmy Garoppolo at just the right time.
