Title bets, over/under projections for top 25 CFB teams

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2016

Title bets, over/under projections for top 25 CFB teams

CFB Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER

With the college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to bring you betting previews for the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.

We'll roll them out a few teams per day, beginning on Tuesday, Aug. 23 and concluding on Tuesday, Aug. 30.

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2016

[h=3]25. San Diego State Aztecs[/h]At odds of 500-1, San Diego State is a long shot to make the College Football Playoff, let alone win it. Still, with a strong running game, defense and special teams, the Aztecs could be a good bet to go over their total. Read »

[h=1]Betting preview: Win total, title odds for San Diego State Aztecs[/h]CFB Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com

ESPN INSIDER

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.
Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.

[h=2]San Diego State Aztecs[/h]National title odds: 500-1 (opened 1,000-1)
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 8.9

[h=2]Phil Steele[/h]Strengths: I rate the Aztecs No. 13 on defense and they have a veteran offensive line and running back Donnel Pumphrey. The Aztecs also have my No. 31-rated special teams.
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Weaknesses: San Diego State wins with a solid run game, defense and special teams. The Aztecs do not have great quarterbacks or receivers, and neither of those units rank among my top.
Over/under (9): The total is just nine, and head coach Rocky Long sometimes uses nonconference games like preseason games. They have to face Cal and Northern Illinois outside the Mountain West, which leaves little wiggle room. I do not have them an underdog in any game, so I would play the over here.
National title (500-1): The Aztecs opened at 1000-1 and have gone down to 500-1. Those are some large odds, but save your cash. San Diego State faces my No. 127-rated schedule, so the odds of a 13-0 San Diego State team making the CFB Playoff would be slim, let alone winning the whole thing.

[h=2]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin[/h]There is a theme to my picks this year in projecting win totals, and that theme is speed. I don't want to be hanging on at the end of the season to see if my pick will be right or wrong; I want to know as early as I can in the season. Say, like, by the end of the first month of the season.
Having said that, the Aztecs face two huge out-of-conference games in September: versus Cal (who will be off a bye) and at Northern Illinois. I don't see the Aztecs losing both of the those games, so I will take the over. SDSU did go 9-0 in conference last year and the Aztecs return one of my favorite names in college football, Donnel Pumphrey.
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	TOTAL	HOME	AWAY	FAVE	UNDERDOG	O/U
2015 ATS	9-5	4-6	5-3	6-3	2-2	6-8
5-year ATS	34-30-2	16-15-2	16-12	20-19-2	13-11	26-39
Coach Rocky Long career ATS	95-92	43-40	26-22	42-38	44-39	67-69

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[h=2]Chris Fallica[/h]O/U: Nine seems low to me, as how many loseable games do the Aztecs really have? Contests against Cal and at Northern Illinois are 50-50 propositions, but other than those two, San Diego State will be favored in every other game. So even if they lose the two toughest games on the schedule, they will be expected to finish 10-2. Sure, QB Maxwell Smith is gone, but the Aztecs are built to win with the running game and defense. I'd be surprised if we weren't looking at a Boise State-San Diego State matchup in the conference title game with potentially a New Year's Six berth at stake. I'm on the over here.
CFB Playoff odds: I can't see the Aztecs in the CFB Playoff, even if they are undefeated. The schedule will be viewed as too weak and simply can't match anything a one- or even two-loss Power 5 team would have to offer. But there's no reason the NY6 can't be a legitimate goal.

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2016

[h=3]24. North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]Without QB Marquise Williams, North Carolina comes into the season without as much hype. How will the Tar Heels fare in the ACC Coastal? Read »

[h=1]Betting preview: Win total, title odds for UNC Tar Heels[/h]CFB Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com

ESPN INSIDER

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.
Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.

[h=2]North Carolina Tar Heels[/h]National title odds: 100-1 (opened 100-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.3

[h=2]Phil Steele[/h]Strengths: The Tar Heels have five units that rank in my top 25, including two in the top 10. Those units are running back, receiver, offensive line, defensive backs and special teams.
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Weaknesses: While I think Mitch Trubisky will have a solid year, the team is less experienced at quarterback. The Tar Heels' defense allowed 5.1 rushing yards per carry and had just 23 sacks last season, despite facing the 85th-toughest schedule.
Over/under (8.5): This number seems low as North Carolina was 11-1 last year and returns 14 starters. I do have it as an underdog in three games this year, but that would mean it would have to be minus-one in the net upset category to fall short. I would have to lean with the over.
National title (100-1): At 100-1, the Tar Heels might be worth a small look here. I rate them No. 26 in my Power Poll and they play in the winnable Coastal Division, which gives them a shot at the ACC title game, which would put them one game away from the CFB Playoff. I don't feel they will really upset three teams to win it all, but a small wager at 100-1 would be about three times better than a spin on the roulette wheel.

[h=2]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin[/h]The Tar Heels come into the season without a ton of hype, and that's because Marquise Williams, their starting QB for the past couple of years, is gone. But I feel good about the Carolina Blue this year as they avoid Louisville and Clemson.
One of my favorite units in the country is the wide receiving unit in Chapel Hill. Between Ryan Switzer, who had a team-high 55 catches last year, and Bug Howard (29 catches), I think Mitch Trubisky will be fine as he takes over as the starter behind center after getting plenty of experience the past couple of years. Plus, he gets to hand the ball off to Elijah Hood, who went more than 100 yards eight times last year. I'll take the over.
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	TOTAL	HOME	AWAY	FAVE	UNDERDOG	O/U
2015 ATS	8-6	5-3	3-3	7-4	1-2	8-6
5-year ATS	33-32	21-13	11-14	26-20	7-12	31-32
Coach Larry Fedora career ATS	55-47	29-21	25-23	40-32	15-15	52-49

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">UNC Betting Trends</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
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[h=2]Chris Fallica[/h]O/U: Remember the North Carolina team that lost the season opener to South Carolina last year? Yeah, me neither. That result proved to be one of the more head-scratching results of the season. But if you look back at Larry Fedora's tenure at UNC, early-season struggles have been fairly common.
If the Tar Heels are going to make a run like they did last year, they better shake those issues, as their four toughest games of the season -- Georgia, at Florida State, Virginia Tech and at Miami -- are all within the first seven games (UGA and FSU are within the first five games). The Heels will score a bunch of points again, and Gene Chizik improved the defense greatly. My hunch is a 9-3 season, but wouldn't be surprised if the Heels suffer another head-scratcher of a loss and wind up 8-4. No play for me here.
CFP odds: Unlike last season, where the schedule would have kept the Heels out of the title game, even if they had beaten Clemson in the ACC title game, this year there would be no doubt. UNC has a tough nonconference opener and faces FSU in the regular season. I don't think the Heels will go 12-1 or 11-2, but if they do, they would certainly be in the discussion. Worth taking out that crumbled $5 bill from your pocket if you have one to spare!

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2016

[h=3]23. Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]After a 12-1 regular season in 2015, Iowa was thrashed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. Can a potentially stronger team make a College Football Playoff run this year? Read »

[h=1]Betting preview: Win total, title odds for Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]
CFB Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com

ESPN INSIDER

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to bring you betting previews for the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.
Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.

[h=2]Iowa Hawkeyes[/h]National title odds: 60-1 (opened 100-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8

[h=2]Phil Steele[/h]Strengths: Iowa is a stronger team this year compared with 2015, when the Hawkeyes went 12-0. The defense boasts defensive tackles Nathan Bazata andJaleel Johnson, middle linebacker Josey Jewell and Jim Thorpe Award-winning cornerback Desmond King. C.J. Beathard is my No. 6 quarterback in next year's draft, and keep in mind he was banged up for the final 10 games last season.
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Weaknesses: Three position groups (running backs, receivers and special teams) don't rank among my top units. They are all improved from last year's team, but still not a strength.
Over/under (8.5): The total is 8.5 and I am a strong buyer on this one. Iowa's five Big Ten opponents had a combined record of 10-30 in conference play last season, and the team gets its toughest foes at home. This might be the best play of the top 25, as I do not have the Hawkeyes as an underdog in any game.
National title (60-1): The Hawkeyes opened at 100-1 and now have dropped to 60-1. With their talent and schedule, I would have them about 25-1, so I clearly like the high odds on this team. They are worth a play.

[h=2]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin[/h]What's not to like about the Hawkeyes this year? Beathard is back calling the signals, coach Kirk Ferentz is also back and cashing a check above $4 million, and there isn't a loss in sight on their schedule until November. Sounds likeover the win total of 8.5 to me.
Just look at the schedule: home games vs. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska; toughest road game at Happy Valley on Nov. 5; out-of-conference games include Miami (Ohio), Iowa State and North Dakota State. The Hawkeyes' defensive secondary was fourth among the Power 5 conferences with 19 interceptions last season, and they don't have to face the best QB in the league (J.T. Barrett).
Give me Iowa and the over and I can't wait to see how mad people get at Iowa's schedule again this year.
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	TOTAL	HOME	AWAY	FAVE	UNDERDOG	O/U
2015 ATS	7-6-1	2-5-1	5-1	6-5	1-1-1	6-8
5-year ATS	30-34-1	14-21	15-9	21-24	9-11-1	35-28-1
Coach Kirk Ferentz's career ATS	114-93-1	63-69-1	48-41	65-66	49-36	88-91-1

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[h=2]Chris Fallica[/h]O/U: Last year was a perfect storm for Iowa as the Hawkeyes had some good fortune, winning every toss-up game. They took advantage of what was the easiest schedule among Power 5 teams and found themselves in the Rose Bowl -- and nearly the College Football Playoff. But last year was an outlier: Prior to that, Iowa had five straight seasons where 8-5 was the high point.
It's hard to think the Hawkeyes will win every 50-50 game again this season, and they pick up Michigan on the schedule. I know a lot of starters are back on defense, as is Beathard, but I think under is the way to go. I believe games at Minnesota, versus Wisconsin, at Penn State, versus Michigan and versus Nebraska are all losable.
CFP odds: One thing the committee indicated last season: If you're undefeated, you have a playoff shot, regardless of what the schedule or any other metrics say. So if you think the Iowa mojo will continue for 2016, then take the 60-1 odds and see how far it goes. I will pass.

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2016

Coming Wednesday: Baylor, Oklahoma State

HacheMan · Aug 24, 2016

[h=3]22. Baylor Bears[/h]It's been quite a tumultuous offseason in Waco. How will Baylor respond with a new coach but an offense still full of playmakers? Read »

[h=1]Betting preview: Win total, title odds for Baylor[/h]CFB Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.
Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.

[h=2]Baylor Bears[/h]National title odds: 50-1 (opened 12-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.3

[h=2]Phil Steele[/h]Strengths: Quarterback Seth Russell is back from his midseason injury, and the Bears were 7-0 with him as the starter, averaging an astonishing 61.1 points per game. Running backs Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson make up my No. 7-rated unit, while wide receiver KD Cannon leads my No. 16 set of receivers. The offensive line, linebackers and defensive backs all rank in my top units.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Weaknesses: Baylor lost nine of its 2016 recruits and some other players who transferred after the off-field incidents that came to light this summer. They have only 70 scholarship players. The defensive line goes from one of the most veteran units to an inexperienced group. This team was built for former head coach Art Briles' style but now is led by an interim head coach in Jim Grobe.
Over/under (8.5): The total is 8.5 and I don't see Baylor going from a preseason top-10 team, like they were in March, to one that struggles to get to a bowl game. I still would side with the under, since the Bears have a tough final six games. With their lack of depth, I could see them taking some lumps late.
National title odds (50-1): They opened up at 12-1 to win it all and are now 50-1. With their lack of depth, offseason chaos and late-season schedule, I am surprised the number is so low at 50-1. I'm passing here.

[h=2]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin[/h]Where do we start with the Bears? No one had an offseason like they did. They bring in a new head coach in former Wake Forest head man Jim Grobe. What I see when I try to project Baylor this season is the lack of depth, due to transfers after the program's off-the-field issues in the offseason. They also go into the season with only Seth Russell having experience at the QB position, which really scares me.
The other question is how much will the offense change with Grobe taking over as head coach? Will they install new pass protection schemes, seeing how they struggled to keep their QBs upright last year? What should we expect fromShock Linwood, who rushed for more than 1,300 yards last year and will now run behind a line that returns one starter.
At least this season we will know a lot earlier than recent ones if Baylor is a contender as it hosts Oklahoma State on Sept. 24. I'll take the under.
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	TOTAL	HOME	AWAY	FAVE	UNDERDOG	O/U
2015 ATS	6-7	3-4	3-3	5-7	1-0	8-5
5-year ATS	40-23-1	24-7	9-13-1	30-20-1	10-3	43-19-1
Coach Jim Grobe career ATS	108-105-4	50-48-2	50-56-1	38-50-1	63-48-3	62-75-2

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[h=2]Chris Fallica[/h]O/U: This much is certain: Baylor has three automatic nonconference wins and a guaranteed win over Kansas. It's also a stretch to think the Bears would lose at Iowa State; so, that's five wins. I also can't see Kansas State winning in Waco, so that's six. Are there three more wins among home games with Oklahoma State and TCU, road games with Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia and a neutral-site game with Texas Tech? I say yes. A 9-3 record looks about right for Baylor this year, as nearly all of the offensive skill is back. I'll take the over.
CFB Playoff odds: I don't see it. I don't think Baylor will go undefeated, and the Bears wouldn't have any notable nonconference win to boost their case as a one-loss team if they were to finish 11-1. Pass.

HacheMan · Aug 24, 2016

[h=3]21. Oklahoma State Cowboys[/h]The Cowboys didn't finish last season on a strong note, getting blown out in their final three games. Can Mason Rudolph lead this team to the CFB Playoff? Read »

[h=1]Betting preview: Win total, title odds for Baylor[/h]CFB Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.
Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.

[h=2]Baylor Bears[/h]National title odds: 50-1 (opened 12-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.3

[h=2]Phil Steele[/h]Strengths: Quarterback Seth Russell is back from his midseason injury, and the Bears were 7-0 with him as the starter, averaging an astonishing 61.1 points per game. Running backs Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson make up my No. 7-rated unit, while wide receiver KD Cannon leads my No. 16 set of receivers. The offensive line, linebackers and defensive backs all rank in my top units.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Weaknesses: Baylor lost nine of its 2016 recruits and some other players who transferred after the off-field incidents that came to light this summer. They have only 70 scholarship players. The defensive line goes from one of the most veteran units to an inexperienced group. This team was built for former head coach Art Briles' style but now is led by an interim head coach in Jim Grobe.
Over/under (8.5): The total is 8.5 and I don't see Baylor going from a preseason top-10 team, like they were in March, to one that struggles to get to a bowl game. I still would side with the under, since the Bears have a tough final six games. With their lack of depth, I could see them taking some lumps late.
National title odds (50-1): They opened up at 12-1 to win it all and are now 50-1. With their lack of depth, offseason chaos and late-season schedule, I am surprised the number is so low at 50-1. I'm passing here.

[h=2]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin[/h]Where do we start with the Bears? No one had an offseason like they did. They bring in a new head coach in former Wake Forest head man Jim Grobe. What I see when I try to project Baylor this season is the lack of depth, due to transfers after the program's off-the-field issues in the offseason. They also go into the season with only Seth Russell having experience at the QB position, which really scares me.
The other question is how much will the offense change with Grobe taking over as head coach? Will they install new pass protection schemes, seeing how they struggled to keep their QBs upright last year? What should we expect fromShock Linwood, who rushed for more than 1,300 yards last year and will now run behind a line that returns one starter.
At least this season we will know a lot earlier than recent ones if Baylor is a contender as it hosts Oklahoma State on Sept. 24. I'll take the under.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]Baylor Betting Trends[/h]Statistical data courtesy of college football data analyst Josh Doust, TeamRankings.com, BetLabsSports on SportsInsights and ESPN's Phil Steele.
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	TOTAL	HOME	AWAY	FAVE	UNDERDOG	O/U
2015 ATS	6-7	3-4	3-3	5-7	1-0	8-5
5-year ATS	40-23-1	24-7	9-13-1	30-20-1	10-3	43-19-1
Coach Jim Grobe career ATS	108-105-4	50-48-2	50-56-1	38-50-1	63-48-3	62-75-2

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[h=2]Chris Fallica[/h]O/U: This much is certain: Baylor has three automatic nonconference wins and a guaranteed win over Kansas. It's also a stretch to think the Bears would lose at Iowa State; so, that's five wins. I also can't see Kansas State winning in Waco, so that's six. Are there three more wins among home games with Oklahoma State and TCU, road games with Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia and a neutral-site game with Texas Tech? I say yes. A 9-3 record looks about right for Baylor this year, as nearly all of the offensive skill is back. I'll take the over.
CFB Playoff odds: I don't see it. I don't think Baylor will go undefeated, and the Bears wouldn't have any notable nonconference win to boost their case as a one-loss team if they were to finish 11-1. Pass.