Thursday Service Plays 5/3
Kelso By:
10 units Golden St +2.5 v. Mavs
3 units Rockets/Jazz Under 184
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Rockets played two bad games here in Games 3 and 4: Van Gundy's message will be that the team needs to learn to win on the road in the playoffs to get ready for the next round. HOUSTON is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons and 19-7 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.UTAH is 46-64 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
Play on: Houston
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Rockets +4.5 over Jazz
Mavs -2.5 over Warriors
MLB Baseball
Phillies +120 over Rockies
Eaton/Cain
Drew Gordon
200,000* Jazz
100,000* Astros
100,000* Giants
2-Minute Warning
NBA Players Club
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Rob House
3,000,000* NBA Playoffs Triple Your Wager Game of the Year #6
3,000,000* Utah Jazz
500,000* Golden State Warriors
500,000* San Francisco Giants W/ Cain
Dave Cokin
Pick: NY Mets
"Tom Glavine just keeps rolling along for the Mets. The ageless southpaw looks to be in good shape to garner yet another win as he faces Micah Owings and the Diamondbacks. Owings has lots of promise, but he is fresh off the DL and the 'Zona were shut down the last two days at LA. Good sized number, but laying it with the Mets is the way I'd play."
Hondo
Minnesota Twins
Brandon Lang
THURSDAY
25 DIME
Warriors
15 DIME
Jazz
10 DIME
Giants
5 DIME
Mets
D'Rays
Mariners
Michael Cannon Money Train
Thursday's Plays..
30 Dime –
WARRIORS
Take the points with Golden State tonight at home over Dallas.
This series should have ended in Game 5. The Mavs went on a 15-0 run in the last 3 ½ minutes to stave off elimination. But they can’t feel comfortable going into this game knowing they blew a 21-point lead on Tuesday and needed a miracle comeback in the waning minutes just to get here.
The Warriors will be playing in front of their home crowd and that’s going to give them a huge advantage tonight. Golden State just might have the best fans in the entire league. It’s almost like watching a college team the way the crowd can go into a frenzy for extended periods of time.
Dallas just can’t solve the Warriors or coach Don Nelson’s matchups. Dirk Nowitzki has been mostly a non-factor this series and he hasn’t done anything to lead you to believe he’s going to step it up tonight.
Golden State is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against Dallas, including 5-2 this year (6-1 ATS). They’ve also defeated the Mavs five consecutive times at home (5-0 ATS).
The Warriors just have too much momentum heading into this game, even after blowing a late lead in Game 5.
Take the points as the Warriors have a great chance of ending this series tonight.
10 Dime –
TWINS (With Ortiz as listed pitcher)
Take the Twins for the road win over the Devil Rays.
Ramon Ortiz gets the nod for Minnesota tonight and he’s having a fine year so far. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in five games and he checks in with an impressive 0.97 WHIP. In 35 innings, Ortiz has issued only six free passes.
His mound opponent tonight, James Shields, has the capability of racking up the strikeouts having fanned 37 batters through five starts. But Shields has a tendency of leaving the ball up and over the plate, which has led to seven homeruns allowed in just 36 innings.
Minnesota is more fundamentally sound than Tampa is, and I expect them to take advantage of the mistakes Shields will make in the strike zone.
Take the Twins for the road win.
5 Dime –
METS (With Glavine and Owings as listed pitchers)
Take the Mets as the road chalk for the win over Arizona.
New York sends Tom Glavine to the mound tonight and he’s 10-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 14 career starts against the Diamondbacks.
The Mets are one of the best hitting teams in the National League and they also sport one of the lowest team ERA’s in the senior circuit.
Not a good combination for Arizona to be facing tonight.
Micah Owings gets the start for the snakes, and the right-hander has the misfortune of facing a Mets team that has been a huge money maker vs. righties on the road in night games so far in 2007.
Lay the juice and take the Mets for the road win.
Matt F@rgo
2.5 u
TB/Minnesota over 9
1 unit (Bonus Play)
NY Mets
This is Jim Feist.
My free pick of the day is the game between (901) CIN Reds and (902) HOU Astros. Take "(902) HOU Astros". A couple of pitchers take the mound with combined records of 0-7! However, Houston lefty Wandy Rodriguez has thrown well, with 24 Ks in 26 innings and a strong 24-8 strikeout/walk ratio. He's also given up fewer hits than innings pitched. The same can't be said for Cincy lefty Eric Milton, an aging fly-ball pitcher who has been awful for several years now. Milton has a 4.71 ERA and has allowed 25 hits in 21 innings. Houston's park is small, not good for fly ball pitchers. And if it comes down to the battle of the bullpens, the Reds' pen has been awful. Play the Astros
This is Dave Cokin.
My free pick of the day is the game between (905) NY Mets and (906) ARI D'backs. Take "(905) NY Mets". Get Dave's Game Six Rockets-Jazz Under the Hat NBA play FREE at 1-888-389-7223!... "Tom Glavine just keeps rolling along for the Mets. The ageless southpaw looks to be in good shape to garner yet another win as he faces Micah Owings and the Diamondbacks. Owings has lots of promise, but he is fresh off the DL and the 'Zona were shut down the last two days at LA. Good sized number, but laying it with the Mets is the way I'd play."
Players Of America
4-1 last night in MLB
FREE PICK: Utah Jazz
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Thur) NBA Jazz Rockets 5 Jazz
(Thur) NBA Mavericks Warriors 2- Warriors
(Thur) MLB Astros Reds 130 Astros
Comps
#2 Sports Advisors NBA Houston (+5)
#3 Sharp Cappers NBA Utah Over (184.5)
#4 Gambling Farm NBA Houston (+5)
#5 Picks4Less NBA Golden State (+2.5)
#6 Joe Wiz NBA Utah (-220)
#7 BigRollers NHL Vancouver (+200)
#8 Kevin Allen NHL Vancouver (+200)
rob mahon
10 dime dallas mavs -2.5
Beating-the-Book
TODAY: Free Picks: Take LA Angels -120 @ Kansas City, Take Minnesota -110 @ Tampa Bay
Randall H
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.52 over CLEVELAND PINNACLE
Cliff Lee is coming off the DL and making his first start of the year and thus, this is a pretty steep tag on a guy that hasn’t pitched yet. Sure, Lee is a decent starter and he’s a southpaw but so what. He’s always very hittable and comes in with a career ERA of 4.39 with the opposition hitting .268 off him in 109 major league starts. Dustin McGowan was called up from the minors and he, too, will make his first major league start of the year. However, McGowan is no stranger to the big leagues, as he’s made 10 starts over the past two years. We liked McGowan when he was with the big club, as he has some really nasty stuff and can be very difficult to hit. Hopefully the setting will not rattle him because the kid can pitch and he’s been dominating in the minors. This season in five minor league starts his ERA is 1.64 and with that in mind and with Lee coming off the DL, we’ll gladly take our chances with the Blue Jays. Play: Toronto +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati/HOUSTON under 9 –1.05 PINNACLE
Lefty, lefty match-up here sees Wandy Rodriguez facing off against Eric Milton. The knock on Rodriguez in the past was his inability to keep ahead of the hitters but this year that has changed, as Rodriguez has walked just eight in 26 frames. He’s also struck out 24 batters and that should bode very well here against the Reds, a squad that collectively strikes out often. Rodriguez is a good one and despite his 0-3 record his ERA is 2.77 at Minute Maid. Eric Milton also throws strikes and it’s rare to see Milton walk more then one batter in a ball game. It’s also worth noting that the Astros are struggling at the plate and that they’re just 1-7 against southpaws. Asking these two free-swinging clubs to score 10 combined seems like a bit of a stretch and thus, we’re going under. Play: under 9 –1.05 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
Major League Baseball picks for::
W L P +/-
Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.02 Units
Last 30 Days 35 52 0 -20.75 Units
Season To Date (Since April 2007) 37 53 0 -17.55 Units
Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (21-5 w/15* GOW plays in MLB '07!)
My 15* play is on the NY Mets at 9:40 ET. The Mets have been much better on the road (9-3) than they've been at home (7-7) this year, so they should be looking forward to this seven-game road trip. It starts with this four-game series at Arizona, where the team's won 10 straight, last losing on 5/11/04! The ageless Tom Glavine has followed last year's brilliant season (team was 26-9 in his starts, including the postseason), by going 3-1 (2.80 ERA) in six starts (team is 4-2) to open 2007. He's got a 1.93 ERA in four road starts so far (team is 3-1) and that bodes well at Chase Filed, where he is an incredible 8-1 (1.37 ERA) in nine career starts (he's 10-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 14 LT starts vs the D'backs). Righty Micah Owings is coming off the DL to make the start for Arizona. He won his ML debut at Washington (7-1) on April 6 (5 IP / 1 H / 0 ERs) but in his next two starts had an ERA of 4.35. Now, with his right hamstring healed (?), he faces a Met team that went 37-22 vs right-handers on the road in 2006 and is 7-2 vs righties away from Shea this year, including a perfect 6-0 in night games, averaging 7.5 RPG! NL Game of the Week 15* NY Mets
Mighty Quinn
The Yankees for both games today.
__________________
The Super Best Bet
2* LAA
2* NY METS
Brian Marshall
NBA
30 Dimes on Utah Jazz -5
GOLD KEY GAMES:
2 Units (Bonus Play): Utah Jazz -4.5
Silver Key (Bonus Play): Texas (Game 2) TEJEDA +1.5 runs -115
Gold Key (Paid Play): UNDER 209.5 Mavericks / Warriors
The Mavericks blew a huge lead, then came back from a nine-point deficit to win Straight Up at Home in the last game of this Series. Under Head Coach Avery Johnson they now take it to the Road to try to bring this match up to Even Stephen, and to head back to Dallas for Game Seven. The Mavs won the most games in the League during the regular season because they played good Defense, and complemented that with a strong Offense. They must play hard on Defense to give themselves a chance tonight on the Road. Trends favoring the Under in Mavericks events include 80-60 Under ATS on the Road, 21-15 Under ATS versus winning teams, and 6-3 Under ATS as Road Favorites in this point range.
The Warriors under long-tenured NBA Head Coach Don Nelson lost a wild one in Game Five at the Mavs, and possibly blew their best chance to upset this Series. But the Warriors have had the Mavs Number for some time now, and they only have to win one of the next two games to advance in the Playoffs. Almost all of the trends favor the Over with the Warriors in this scenario, but it should be noted that the last three games in this Series played at Golden State have gone Under the posted Total.
The Totals line overnited at 209.5. We'll take go with the Under here tonight in a Gold Key Play
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (47-26 this season!)
Which team will blink in this "do or die game?" I know it's not a Game 7 but it may as well be, as the Warriors could not reasonably expect to win a Game 7 in Dallas if they lose to the Mavs here. Golden State's Game 5 performance went from masterful to a complete and utter collapse, in a matter of minutes. After coming all the way back from a 21-point deficit, the Warriors led 112-103 with 3:20 left in the game. The Warriors then IMPLODED, as Nowitzki stepped up (finally!) to score 12 of the Mavs' final 15 points in a 15-0 game-ending run. The Warriors looked lost and confused and saw Richardson get tangled up with fan (after falling out of bounds on a missed shot) plus Jackson get ejected (for the 2nd time this series). During the regular season, the Warriors had six players average in double digits plus Barnes (9.8) and Biedrins (9.5) just missed. However, in the postseason, Davis (26.0), Jackson (20.8) and Richardson (20.4) have done almost all the scoring. Ellis, who averaged 16.5 PPG during the year, is scoring just 9.0 PPG and Harrington, at 16.5 PPG during the season, is adding just 5.4 PPG. I've never been a huge Dallas fan but after all, this team did have winning streaks of 17, 13 and 12 games this year, on its way to 67 wins (25 more than the Warriors!). Howard's (21-6-10.6 on 53.8% shooting) been great all series, Terry's (17.8) played solid and Stackhouse, after going scoreless in Game 1, has averaged 16.5 PPG since. Nowitzki was great in Game 5's last three minutes and now has a chance to lead his team to a win that would set them up for a return home (and a Game 7). I have to take Dallas in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the Dal Mavs
Gamblers Choice
April 51-24 +52.10 +$52,100
May 2-2 +.60 +$600
5- Dallas -2 (playoff Game Of The Year!)
2 S-f -40
Only If Bonds Starts
THE PROFESSIONAL
"Professional Moves" ===== 50-36
"Regular Plays" ===== 26-17
Overall Record ===== 76-53
May 3rd
Professional Move
Dallas Mavs -2.5
Triple Professional Moves Now
(3-0 YTD)
VIC MONTE
5* Barking Dog - Houston Rockets +5
Big Al McMordie
Bonus Play: Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians
At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. Indians lefthanded veteran starter Cliff Lee finally gets his first start tonight after beginning the season on the DL with an abdominal injury. It turns out that his first game back will be against another starter seeing his first action of the season at the Major League level, young righthander Dustin McGowan. Although not as well known as Lee, the 25 year old McGowan is somebody who the Blue Jays will be counting on. Not only is McGowan the former #1 draft pick of the franchise in 2000 who has seen limited action with the Blue Jays the past 2 seasons while honing his skills in the Minors, but he is now being asked to fill the important rotation spot being vacated by Gustavo Chacin's recent trip to the DL. Although not that impressive in 2005 or 2006 with the Jays, McGowan has been extremely sharp at AAA Syracuse this spring with a 1.64 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 22 innings. If the Tribe wanted an easy first spot for Lee, it would appear they are getting anything but that as Toronto is one of the best hitting teams in the entire league against southpaws, batting .298 against them so far. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Al McMordie has made HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of dollars for his clients over the years in Big Races like the Kentucky Derby (Remember Big Al's Bonus Pick on Giacomo at 50-1 in 2005), and this Saturday, Al is targeting another LONGSHOT to get into the Winner's Circle. Bet this horse 'across the board' and make a fortune!
Bobby Maxwell
Thursday's 3-0 winning ticket
800-Unit NBA Playoff Absolute Lock - MAVERICKS
I know, How can I take Dallas in this one? Well, something woke their asses up over the final 3:30 of Game 5 and they played like the Mavs, going on a 15-0 run over that time to score the miraculous win over the Warriors and force a Game 6 tonight.
How deflating was that for the Warriors to blow a 9-point lead that late? We'll see how they react tonight but I like the Mavs to keep it going and get the win in this one and force a Game 7 back in Dallas.
Remember that no No. 8 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed since the NBA went to all seven-game series in the playoffs. And it won't happen here. The Mavs are going to do what Phoenix did last year against the Lakers, win the final three games to pull it out. Dallas will get a hard-fought win tonight and then come back with a blowout win in Game 7.
Dirk Nowitzki really woke up in Game 5 and led the team to the late rally. That is going to ignite the big German and he's going to put in 30 tonight.
This will be exciting tonight, but when the dust settles, the Mavs will get a 7-point victory. Play Dallas.
100-Unit NL Road Warrior - PHILLIES (Play only with Eaton as listed pitcher for Philadelphia)
The Phillies have won eight of their last 12 games and have dominated the Giants lately, winning seven of the last eight times these two teams have met.
Today Philadelphia sends Adam Eaton (2-2, 7.71 ERA) to the mound to face the Giants' Matt Cain (1-1, 1.54). Eaton has had plenty of chances against San Francisco and has held the Giants to four earned runs or less in nine of the last 10 times he's faced them.
The Giants haven't been able to give Cain any support this season as he's managed to hold the opposition to just six earned runs in five games, but the Giants have scored just 12 runs in his five outings.
Last year the Phillies jumped all over Cain in May with six runs on nine hits in four innings in an 8-3 victory in Philadelphia. He held the Phillies to one run on one hit in six innings in July, but the Phillies still scored the 6-2 win, dominating the weak San Francisco bullpen.
Let's take the plus money Phillies to win this one and continue dominating the Giants.
100-Unit AL E-Z Call - DEVIL RAYS (Play only with Shields as listed pitcher for Tampa Bay)
This series is all tied up after six games this season as Tampa Bay scored a 4-3 win Wednesday and today send James Shields (2-0, 3.75 ERA) to the mound.
Shields is coming off a great outing in Oakland where he held the A's to one run on four hits in eight innings in a 4-1 victory. In his last two games he's allowed three runs on six hits in 16 innings.
Minnesota sends Ramon Ortiz (3-1, 2.57 ERA) to the hill. He has given up five runs on 12 hits in 13 innings in his last two outings, a win in Detroit and a loss in Kansas City.
The Devil Rays have won three of their last five games and is playing some decent baseball right now. Shields is pitching extremely well right now and we're going to back the home team in this matchup. Play Tampa Bay.
Chris Jordan
Thursday night winners
600? WARRIORS - Analysis by 3 p.m. eastern
400? RED SOX -1-1/2 RUNS (LIST Matsuzaka and Ramirez) -
Chuck Franklin
NBA
2000? HOUSTON ROCKETS
The Rockets are going to seize this opportunity to oust the Jazz tonight. The fact of the matter is that the Rockets are a far superior team, and with Tracy McGrady getting into a post-season groove, the Jazz will not be able to keep up. T-Mac’s ability to put a lot of points on the board combined with his willingness to dish the ball to the player in the best position to score the basket will be the reason the Rockets will come away with the win in this one. Not to mention Yao Ming’s huge height advantage, which often puts him on the receiving end of McGrady’s assist. I expect to see Utah’s youth and inexperience exploited by the veteran Rockets tonight. Houston has been profitable in road games following an ATS loss, covering 15 of the last 21 times in that situation. As a dog, the Rockets become an even more favorable play, as I expect them to win this one outright and end this first round series tonight.
2000? DALLAS MAVERICKS
Expect this one be another dogfight that comes right down to the wire. With all those rabid Warrior fans cheering for the home team, Dallas will have to really dig deep to overcome this environment that clearly favors their opponent and remind everyone that they are still the best team in the league. And they couldn’t ask for a better team leader than Dirk Nowitzki, who has proven time and again that he doesn’t get flustered by unfriendly crowds and hard fouls. He just shakes it off and keeps his cool, which is what makes him great. He has shown in recent games that when the game comes down to the wire he can confidently lead his team to victory, hitting clutch three pointers and foul shots with precision. Everyone agrees that the pressure is on the Warriors in this match-up, and even Baron Davis’ post-season heroics won’t be enough for Golden State to cope with the weight of that burden. The Mavs will send the series back to Dallas for game seven with a win and a cover in this contest
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - UTAH JAZZ....20 DIMER - GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS....10 DIMER - MINNESOTA WITH ORTIZ
40 DIMER - UTAH JAZZ
I got burned with Houston on Monday as they never did call that foul with 3 seconds to go and the Rockets only won by 4 as the 6-point favorite. Hell, I would have settled for a nice push in that game. Oh well, time to get it back tonight as I continue to stick with the home team.
The host has won all 5 games outright while going 4-1 against the spread. The home team has won the last 6 meetings, and 9 of the last 10!
Utah has covered the last 3 meetings, and 5 of the last 7. The Jazz absolutely blew out the Rockets in the 2 games contested in Utah so far and I see no reason to believe this game won't be a blowout before it is all said and done as well.
Jazz to force a 7th and deciding game with the win and cover tonight.
20 DIMER - GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Maybe that loss in Game 5 means Dallas is going to roll Golden State and send this one back to Dallas for a 7th game, but I am not willing to make book on it, as I have seen enough of this series to know that the Warriors have the Mavs number, and a rabid home court tonight is going to be all the difference in the world.
I like Golden State to come through tonight. I know the spread is hovering around a basket, and we will probably have to win this game outright, but I definitely think Baron Davis is capable of leading the Warriors past the Mavericks in this game.
Go with Golden State plus any points available.
10 DIMER - MINNESOTA TWINS WITH ORTIZ
How did the Twins blow last night's game!??!?!?!!?
Minny was sitting on a 3-1 lead with their closer Joe Nathan all set to close it out, but they wound up losing it 4-3 in 10 innings of play.
I expect Minnesota to bounce-back with the win in the series finale today. The Twins own a 6-2 record at Tampa Bay the last couple of years, and they are 15-4 overall against Tampa since 2005. I know the past results came when the Rays had some bad squads and Tampa is vastly improved this season, but I still think Minny is the better team on the field tonight.
Go with the Twins
Rob House
3,000,000* NBA Playoffs Triple Your Wager Game of the Year #6 (4-1 on these so far)
3,000,000? Utah Jazz
500,000? Golden State Warriors
500,000? San Francisco Giants W/ Cain
Drew Gordon...
1. 200,000? Jazz
2. 100,000? Astros
3. 100,000? Giants
1. Jazz- First and foremost, this is an elimination game for the Jazz in front of their home crowd... The perfect spot for them to salvage their season and take this series to 7 games! Granted, winning a Game 7 in Houston will be tough, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Utah has been spectacular at home this season, winning 33 games in Salt Lake City, including winning and covering both games at home in this series.
Second, while there's no arguing how good T-Mac and Yao have been this series, their role players leave a lot to be desired, especially on the road where they seem to utterly disappear. Go back to tapes of Games 3 & 4 and you'll see exactly what I mean. T-Mac and Yao can drop 30 points each, but if their role players barely contribute they'll get blown out tongiht.
Finally, while a lot has been made of the youth and inexperience of the Jazz, playing at home tonight works tremendously in their favor. Young or inxperienced players have a tendency to get overwhelmed on the road, only to play much better at home. Take Deron Williams for example, as the catalyst of this Jazz offense, when he struggles, they struggle. He was great in Game 4 and should once again find his stroke in Game 6.
Bottom line, two players cannot beat an entire team, plain and simple. The Jazz will benefit greatly from the home cookin', as their role players easily outscore Houston's. Not only that, but Utah's formidable frontcourt has also played much better at Salt Lake. Jazz protect their house and save their season in the process, at least for one more game.
Take the Jazz comfortably over the Rockets as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Astros- Interesting match up here as two winless pitchers face-off in this match up. However, once you break down this game, you'll see the Astros are the clear choice in this one.
First and foremost, you've got two southpaws facing off, both of which are desperately searching for their first win of the season. The only problem for the Reds Eric Milton is he'll be facing an Astros team which despite an overall below average offense, has hit lefties well this season, averaging .268 against them.
The same cannot be said for the Reds facing Wandy Rodriguez, as Cincinnati has struggled against left-handed pitching, averaging .244 and making a bad habit of striking out against them, with 81 Ks against southpaws this season.
Next, you've got to consider the two bullpens, one of the biggest disparities between these two clubs. The Astros have posted a 3.88 bullpen ERA, incl. 2.87 ERA over their last 3 games. While the Reds have posted a 4.46 bullpen ERA, with an astronomical 6.35 ERA over their last 3... Starting to see my point?!
Bottom line, the knock against the Astros has always been offense, but in this case, they should do just fine against southpaw Eric Milton tonight. While Rodriguez shouldn't have much trouble against a Reds club that just wants to go home after their 9-game road trip ends tonight.
Take the Astros behind Rodriguez over the Reds in this NL Central showdown.
3. Giants- Talk about a pitching mismatch, as Adam Eaton squares off against the Giants ace Matt Cain. What can you say about Eaton, except he struggled through April. His 7.71 ERA should tell you something, and the fact he got two wins should also tell you something about the Phillies offense. This time around however, the Phillies batting order won't be there to save him. Why? Two words: Matt Cain.
Despite his 1-1 record, Cain has posted an extraordinary 1.54 ERA. He also leads the league in opponents batting average, allowing them to hit just .100 so far this season. Those numbers are impressive to say the least, and with the Giants offense hitting well , Cain will get more than enough support to bury the Phillies in this one.
Besides the fact Bonds has hit Eaton very well, the Giants as a team are hitting .274 against righties over their last 10 games. After getting swept at Arizona, San Fran has rebounded well at home, taking 2 of 3 from Colorado and are poised to take this first game from Philadelphia.
While the Phillies offense has been red-hot, Matt Cain has a way of cooling off hot hitters in a hurry. Don't expect the same results from Eaton, who's coming off his worst start of the year, allowing 7 runs on 7 hits over 4 2/3 innings, while walking 4 against the Braves. He hasn't done much better against the Giants, going 2-5 with a 4.57 ERA in 13 career appearances. Bottom line, Giants protect their house behind a strong pitching edge in this one!
Take the Giants behind Cain over the Phillies in late MLB action.
Maverick (Posted By Desperadoo69)
Royals, early game,
Houston NBA.
Winning Points
all 5*-
Minn,
SF,
NYM,
they also slipped when I called and gave me Hous.NBA 5*, I have no idea what there record is for the NBA.GL
Thursday's Comps
Sebastian-UNDER Phil.
Computer Boys-San Francisco
Winner Line-San Francisco
OTM-OVER Mets
Northeastern Sports-Phil.
Kevin Kennedy-Yankees(he conveniently doesn't mention which game;then again, perhaps he didn't take the time to see there is a doubleheader today.)
Feiner-OVER Cleveland
Gaston-OVER Dallas
Bob Balfe:
YTD = 40-32
NBA Basketball
Rockets +4.5 over Jazz
Mavs -2.5 over Warriors
MLB Baseball
Phillies +120 over Rockies
Eaton/Cain
----------------------------------
Proffit Plays
Triple plays = 51-49
Boston
Milwaukee
Cleveland
Daily Best Bets
YTD = 18-16
Golden State +2.5
--------------------------------------
TonyK's Play of the Day (PicksPal)
Minnesota at Tampa Bay (MLB), 7:10 PM ET
Ramon Ortiz didn't earn a win in his last start, but he continued to pitch well enough to put the Twins in a situation to win. Ortiz scraped together six innings and likely could have gone longer if he handled the strike zone better. He gave up two runs on five hits and four walks, but threw 107 pitches. He left with the Twins trailing, 2-0, although they eventually went on to win, 5-3. His 6-1 career record against the Rays is his best against any team he's faced.
James Shields has turned into the staff's most consistent pitcher, and the right-hander's encore performance following the best outing of his career demonstrated as much. Shields allowed just one run on four hits, while striking out nine against the A's on Friday night to claim his second win of the season. Shields is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA in one career start against the Twins.
Play the Twins (-120)
CALIFORNIA SPORTS (7-1 MLB totals) :
4* Minn./T.B. over
Kelso By:
10 units Golden St +2.5 v. Mavs
3 units Rockets/Jazz Under 184
VEGAS EXPERTS
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Rockets played two bad games here in Games 3 and 4: Van Gundy's message will be that the team needs to learn to win on the road in the playoffs to get ready for the next round. HOUSTON is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons and 19-7 ATS in road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.UTAH is 46-64 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
Play on: Houston
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Rockets +4.5 over Jazz
Mavs -2.5 over Warriors
MLB Baseball
Phillies +120 over Rockies
Eaton/Cain
Drew Gordon
200,000* Jazz
100,000* Astros
100,000* Giants
2-Minute Warning
NBA Players Club
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Rob House
3,000,000* NBA Playoffs Triple Your Wager Game of the Year #6
3,000,000* Utah Jazz
500,000* Golden State Warriors
500,000* San Francisco Giants W/ Cain
Dave Cokin
Pick: NY Mets
"Tom Glavine just keeps rolling along for the Mets. The ageless southpaw looks to be in good shape to garner yet another win as he faces Micah Owings and the Diamondbacks. Owings has lots of promise, but he is fresh off the DL and the 'Zona were shut down the last two days at LA. Good sized number, but laying it with the Mets is the way I'd play."
Hondo
Minnesota Twins
Brandon Lang
THURSDAY
25 DIME
Warriors
15 DIME
Jazz
10 DIME
Giants
5 DIME
Mets
D'Rays
Mariners
Michael Cannon Money Train
Thursday's Plays..
30 Dime –
WARRIORS
Take the points with Golden State tonight at home over Dallas.
This series should have ended in Game 5. The Mavs went on a 15-0 run in the last 3 ½ minutes to stave off elimination. But they can’t feel comfortable going into this game knowing they blew a 21-point lead on Tuesday and needed a miracle comeback in the waning minutes just to get here.
The Warriors will be playing in front of their home crowd and that’s going to give them a huge advantage tonight. Golden State just might have the best fans in the entire league. It’s almost like watching a college team the way the crowd can go into a frenzy for extended periods of time.
Dallas just can’t solve the Warriors or coach Don Nelson’s matchups. Dirk Nowitzki has been mostly a non-factor this series and he hasn’t done anything to lead you to believe he’s going to step it up tonight.
Golden State is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against Dallas, including 5-2 this year (6-1 ATS). They’ve also defeated the Mavs five consecutive times at home (5-0 ATS).
The Warriors just have too much momentum heading into this game, even after blowing a late lead in Game 5.
Take the points as the Warriors have a great chance of ending this series tonight.
10 Dime –
TWINS (With Ortiz as listed pitcher)
Take the Twins for the road win over the Devil Rays.
Ramon Ortiz gets the nod for Minnesota tonight and he’s having a fine year so far. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in five games and he checks in with an impressive 0.97 WHIP. In 35 innings, Ortiz has issued only six free passes.
His mound opponent tonight, James Shields, has the capability of racking up the strikeouts having fanned 37 batters through five starts. But Shields has a tendency of leaving the ball up and over the plate, which has led to seven homeruns allowed in just 36 innings.
Minnesota is more fundamentally sound than Tampa is, and I expect them to take advantage of the mistakes Shields will make in the strike zone.
Take the Twins for the road win.
5 Dime –
METS (With Glavine and Owings as listed pitchers)
Take the Mets as the road chalk for the win over Arizona.
New York sends Tom Glavine to the mound tonight and he’s 10-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 14 career starts against the Diamondbacks.
The Mets are one of the best hitting teams in the National League and they also sport one of the lowest team ERA’s in the senior circuit.
Not a good combination for Arizona to be facing tonight.
Micah Owings gets the start for the snakes, and the right-hander has the misfortune of facing a Mets team that has been a huge money maker vs. righties on the road in night games so far in 2007.
Lay the juice and take the Mets for the road win.
Matt F@rgo
2.5 u
TB/Minnesota over 9
1 unit (Bonus Play)
NY Mets
This is Jim Feist.
My free pick of the day is the game between (901) CIN Reds and (902) HOU Astros. Take "(902) HOU Astros". A couple of pitchers take the mound with combined records of 0-7! However, Houston lefty Wandy Rodriguez has thrown well, with 24 Ks in 26 innings and a strong 24-8 strikeout/walk ratio. He's also given up fewer hits than innings pitched. The same can't be said for Cincy lefty Eric Milton, an aging fly-ball pitcher who has been awful for several years now. Milton has a 4.71 ERA and has allowed 25 hits in 21 innings. Houston's park is small, not good for fly ball pitchers. And if it comes down to the battle of the bullpens, the Reds' pen has been awful. Play the Astros
This is Dave Cokin.
My free pick of the day is the game between (905) NY Mets and (906) ARI D'backs. Take "(905) NY Mets". Get Dave's Game Six Rockets-Jazz Under the Hat NBA play FREE at 1-888-389-7223!... "Tom Glavine just keeps rolling along for the Mets. The ageless southpaw looks to be in good shape to garner yet another win as he faces Micah Owings and the Diamondbacks. Owings has lots of promise, but he is fresh off the DL and the 'Zona were shut down the last two days at LA. Good sized number, but laying it with the Mets is the way I'd play."
Players Of America
4-1 last night in MLB
FREE PICK: Utah Jazz
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Thur) NBA Jazz Rockets 5 Jazz
(Thur) NBA Mavericks Warriors 2- Warriors
(Thur) MLB Astros Reds 130 Astros
Comps
#2 Sports Advisors NBA Houston (+5)
#3 Sharp Cappers NBA Utah Over (184.5)
#4 Gambling Farm NBA Houston (+5)
#5 Picks4Less NBA Golden State (+2.5)
#6 Joe Wiz NBA Utah (-220)
#7 BigRollers NHL Vancouver (+200)
#8 Kevin Allen NHL Vancouver (+200)
rob mahon
10 dime dallas mavs -2.5
Beating-the-Book
TODAY: Free Picks: Take LA Angels -120 @ Kansas City, Take Minnesota -110 @ Tampa Bay
Randall H
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Toronto +1.52 over CLEVELAND PINNACLE
Cliff Lee is coming off the DL and making his first start of the year and thus, this is a pretty steep tag on a guy that hasn’t pitched yet. Sure, Lee is a decent starter and he’s a southpaw but so what. He’s always very hittable and comes in with a career ERA of 4.39 with the opposition hitting .268 off him in 109 major league starts. Dustin McGowan was called up from the minors and he, too, will make his first major league start of the year. However, McGowan is no stranger to the big leagues, as he’s made 10 starts over the past two years. We liked McGowan when he was with the big club, as he has some really nasty stuff and can be very difficult to hit. Hopefully the setting will not rattle him because the kid can pitch and he’s been dominating in the minors. This season in five minor league starts his ERA is 1.64 and with that in mind and with Lee coming off the DL, we’ll gladly take our chances with the Blue Jays. Play: Toronto +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati/HOUSTON under 9 –1.05 PINNACLE
Lefty, lefty match-up here sees Wandy Rodriguez facing off against Eric Milton. The knock on Rodriguez in the past was his inability to keep ahead of the hitters but this year that has changed, as Rodriguez has walked just eight in 26 frames. He’s also struck out 24 batters and that should bode very well here against the Reds, a squad that collectively strikes out often. Rodriguez is a good one and despite his 0-3 record his ERA is 2.77 at Minute Maid. Eric Milton also throws strikes and it’s rare to see Milton walk more then one batter in a ball game. It’s also worth noting that the Astros are struggling at the plate and that they’re just 1-7 against southpaws. Asking these two free-swinging clubs to score 10 combined seems like a bit of a stretch and thus, we’re going under. Play: under 9 –1.05 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
Major League Baseball picks for::
W L P +/-
Yesterday 1 1 0 +0.02 Units
Last 30 Days 35 52 0 -20.75 Units
Season To Date (Since April 2007) 37 53 0 -17.55 Units
Larry Ness' 15* NL Game of the Week (21-5 w/15* GOW plays in MLB '07!)
My 15* play is on the NY Mets at 9:40 ET. The Mets have been much better on the road (9-3) than they've been at home (7-7) this year, so they should be looking forward to this seven-game road trip. It starts with this four-game series at Arizona, where the team's won 10 straight, last losing on 5/11/04! The ageless Tom Glavine has followed last year's brilliant season (team was 26-9 in his starts, including the postseason), by going 3-1 (2.80 ERA) in six starts (team is 4-2) to open 2007. He's got a 1.93 ERA in four road starts so far (team is 3-1) and that bodes well at Chase Filed, where he is an incredible 8-1 (1.37 ERA) in nine career starts (he's 10-3 with a 2.27 ERA in 14 LT starts vs the D'backs). Righty Micah Owings is coming off the DL to make the start for Arizona. He won his ML debut at Washington (7-1) on April 6 (5 IP / 1 H / 0 ERs) but in his next two starts had an ERA of 4.35. Now, with his right hamstring healed (?), he faces a Met team that went 37-22 vs right-handers on the road in 2006 and is 7-2 vs righties away from Shea this year, including a perfect 6-0 in night games, averaging 7.5 RPG! NL Game of the Week 15* NY Mets
Mighty Quinn
The Yankees for both games today.
__________________
The Super Best Bet
2* LAA
2* NY METS
Brian Marshall
NBA
30 Dimes on Utah Jazz -5
GOLD KEY GAMES:
2 Units (Bonus Play): Utah Jazz -4.5
Silver Key (Bonus Play): Texas (Game 2) TEJEDA +1.5 runs -115
Gold Key (Paid Play): UNDER 209.5 Mavericks / Warriors
The Mavericks blew a huge lead, then came back from a nine-point deficit to win Straight Up at Home in the last game of this Series. Under Head Coach Avery Johnson they now take it to the Road to try to bring this match up to Even Stephen, and to head back to Dallas for Game Seven. The Mavs won the most games in the League during the regular season because they played good Defense, and complemented that with a strong Offense. They must play hard on Defense to give themselves a chance tonight on the Road. Trends favoring the Under in Mavericks events include 80-60 Under ATS on the Road, 21-15 Under ATS versus winning teams, and 6-3 Under ATS as Road Favorites in this point range.
The Warriors under long-tenured NBA Head Coach Don Nelson lost a wild one in Game Five at the Mavs, and possibly blew their best chance to upset this Series. But the Warriors have had the Mavs Number for some time now, and they only have to win one of the next two games to advance in the Playoffs. Almost all of the trends favor the Over with the Warriors in this scenario, but it should be noted that the last three games in this Series played at Golden State have gone Under the posted Total.
The Totals line overnited at 209.5. We'll take go with the Under here tonight in a Gold Key Play
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (47-26 this season!)
Which team will blink in this "do or die game?" I know it's not a Game 7 but it may as well be, as the Warriors could not reasonably expect to win a Game 7 in Dallas if they lose to the Mavs here. Golden State's Game 5 performance went from masterful to a complete and utter collapse, in a matter of minutes. After coming all the way back from a 21-point deficit, the Warriors led 112-103 with 3:20 left in the game. The Warriors then IMPLODED, as Nowitzki stepped up (finally!) to score 12 of the Mavs' final 15 points in a 15-0 game-ending run. The Warriors looked lost and confused and saw Richardson get tangled up with fan (after falling out of bounds on a missed shot) plus Jackson get ejected (for the 2nd time this series). During the regular season, the Warriors had six players average in double digits plus Barnes (9.8) and Biedrins (9.5) just missed. However, in the postseason, Davis (26.0), Jackson (20.8) and Richardson (20.4) have done almost all the scoring. Ellis, who averaged 16.5 PPG during the year, is scoring just 9.0 PPG and Harrington, at 16.5 PPG during the season, is adding just 5.4 PPG. I've never been a huge Dallas fan but after all, this team did have winning streaks of 17, 13 and 12 games this year, on its way to 67 wins (25 more than the Warriors!). Howard's (21-6-10.6 on 53.8% shooting) been great all series, Terry's (17.8) played solid and Stackhouse, after going scoreless in Game 1, has averaged 16.5 PPG since. Nowitzki was great in Game 5's last three minutes and now has a chance to lead his team to a win that would set them up for a return home (and a Game 7). I have to take Dallas in this one. Las Vegas Insider on the Dal Mavs
Gamblers Choice
April 51-24 +52.10 +$52,100
May 2-2 +.60 +$600
5- Dallas -2 (playoff Game Of The Year!)
2 S-f -40
Only If Bonds Starts
THE PROFESSIONAL
"Professional Moves" ===== 50-36
"Regular Plays" ===== 26-17
Overall Record ===== 76-53
May 3rd
Professional Move
Dallas Mavs -2.5
Triple Professional Moves Now
(3-0 YTD)
VIC MONTE
5* Barking Dog - Houston Rockets +5
Big Al McMordie
Bonus Play: Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians
At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Cleveland Indians. Indians lefthanded veteran starter Cliff Lee finally gets his first start tonight after beginning the season on the DL with an abdominal injury. It turns out that his first game back will be against another starter seeing his first action of the season at the Major League level, young righthander Dustin McGowan. Although not as well known as Lee, the 25 year old McGowan is somebody who the Blue Jays will be counting on. Not only is McGowan the former #1 draft pick of the franchise in 2000 who has seen limited action with the Blue Jays the past 2 seasons while honing his skills in the Minors, but he is now being asked to fill the important rotation spot being vacated by Gustavo Chacin's recent trip to the DL. Although not that impressive in 2005 or 2006 with the Jays, McGowan has been extremely sharp at AAA Syracuse this spring with a 1.64 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 22 innings. If the Tribe wanted an easy first spot for Lee, it would appear they are getting anything but that as Toronto is one of the best hitting teams in the entire league against southpaws, batting .298 against them so far. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Al McMordie has made HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of dollars for his clients over the years in Big Races like the Kentucky Derby (Remember Big Al's Bonus Pick on Giacomo at 50-1 in 2005), and this Saturday, Al is targeting another LONGSHOT to get into the Winner's Circle. Bet this horse 'across the board' and make a fortune!
Bobby Maxwell
Thursday's 3-0 winning ticket
800-Unit NBA Playoff Absolute Lock - MAVERICKS
I know, How can I take Dallas in this one? Well, something woke their asses up over the final 3:30 of Game 5 and they played like the Mavs, going on a 15-0 run over that time to score the miraculous win over the Warriors and force a Game 6 tonight.
How deflating was that for the Warriors to blow a 9-point lead that late? We'll see how they react tonight but I like the Mavs to keep it going and get the win in this one and force a Game 7 back in Dallas.
Remember that no No. 8 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed since the NBA went to all seven-game series in the playoffs. And it won't happen here. The Mavs are going to do what Phoenix did last year against the Lakers, win the final three games to pull it out. Dallas will get a hard-fought win tonight and then come back with a blowout win in Game 7.
Dirk Nowitzki really woke up in Game 5 and led the team to the late rally. That is going to ignite the big German and he's going to put in 30 tonight.
This will be exciting tonight, but when the dust settles, the Mavs will get a 7-point victory. Play Dallas.
100-Unit NL Road Warrior - PHILLIES (Play only with Eaton as listed pitcher for Philadelphia)
The Phillies have won eight of their last 12 games and have dominated the Giants lately, winning seven of the last eight times these two teams have met.
Today Philadelphia sends Adam Eaton (2-2, 7.71 ERA) to the mound to face the Giants' Matt Cain (1-1, 1.54). Eaton has had plenty of chances against San Francisco and has held the Giants to four earned runs or less in nine of the last 10 times he's faced them.
The Giants haven't been able to give Cain any support this season as he's managed to hold the opposition to just six earned runs in five games, but the Giants have scored just 12 runs in his five outings.
Last year the Phillies jumped all over Cain in May with six runs on nine hits in four innings in an 8-3 victory in Philadelphia. He held the Phillies to one run on one hit in six innings in July, but the Phillies still scored the 6-2 win, dominating the weak San Francisco bullpen.
Let's take the plus money Phillies to win this one and continue dominating the Giants.
100-Unit AL E-Z Call - DEVIL RAYS (Play only with Shields as listed pitcher for Tampa Bay)
This series is all tied up after six games this season as Tampa Bay scored a 4-3 win Wednesday and today send James Shields (2-0, 3.75 ERA) to the mound.
Shields is coming off a great outing in Oakland where he held the A's to one run on four hits in eight innings in a 4-1 victory. In his last two games he's allowed three runs on six hits in 16 innings.
Minnesota sends Ramon Ortiz (3-1, 2.57 ERA) to the hill. He has given up five runs on 12 hits in 13 innings in his last two outings, a win in Detroit and a loss in Kansas City.
The Devil Rays have won three of their last five games and is playing some decent baseball right now. Shields is pitching extremely well right now and we're going to back the home team in this matchup. Play Tampa Bay.
Chris Jordan
Thursday night winners
600? WARRIORS - Analysis by 3 p.m. eastern
400? RED SOX -1-1/2 RUNS (LIST Matsuzaka and Ramirez) -
Chuck Franklin
NBA
2000? HOUSTON ROCKETS
The Rockets are going to seize this opportunity to oust the Jazz tonight. The fact of the matter is that the Rockets are a far superior team, and with Tracy McGrady getting into a post-season groove, the Jazz will not be able to keep up. T-Mac’s ability to put a lot of points on the board combined with his willingness to dish the ball to the player in the best position to score the basket will be the reason the Rockets will come away with the win in this one. Not to mention Yao Ming’s huge height advantage, which often puts him on the receiving end of McGrady’s assist. I expect to see Utah’s youth and inexperience exploited by the veteran Rockets tonight. Houston has been profitable in road games following an ATS loss, covering 15 of the last 21 times in that situation. As a dog, the Rockets become an even more favorable play, as I expect them to win this one outright and end this first round series tonight.
2000? DALLAS MAVERICKS
Expect this one be another dogfight that comes right down to the wire. With all those rabid Warrior fans cheering for the home team, Dallas will have to really dig deep to overcome this environment that clearly favors their opponent and remind everyone that they are still the best team in the league. And they couldn’t ask for a better team leader than Dirk Nowitzki, who has proven time and again that he doesn’t get flustered by unfriendly crowds and hard fouls. He just shakes it off and keeps his cool, which is what makes him great. He has shown in recent games that when the game comes down to the wire he can confidently lead his team to victory, hitting clutch three pointers and foul shots with precision. Everyone agrees that the pressure is on the Warriors in this match-up, and even Baron Davis’ post-season heroics won’t be enough for Golden State to cope with the weight of that burden. The Mavs will send the series back to Dallas for game seven with a win and a cover in this contest
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - UTAH JAZZ....20 DIMER - GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS....10 DIMER - MINNESOTA WITH ORTIZ
40 DIMER - UTAH JAZZ
I got burned with Houston on Monday as they never did call that foul with 3 seconds to go and the Rockets only won by 4 as the 6-point favorite. Hell, I would have settled for a nice push in that game. Oh well, time to get it back tonight as I continue to stick with the home team.
The host has won all 5 games outright while going 4-1 against the spread. The home team has won the last 6 meetings, and 9 of the last 10!
Utah has covered the last 3 meetings, and 5 of the last 7. The Jazz absolutely blew out the Rockets in the 2 games contested in Utah so far and I see no reason to believe this game won't be a blowout before it is all said and done as well.
Jazz to force a 7th and deciding game with the win and cover tonight.
20 DIMER - GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Maybe that loss in Game 5 means Dallas is going to roll Golden State and send this one back to Dallas for a 7th game, but I am not willing to make book on it, as I have seen enough of this series to know that the Warriors have the Mavs number, and a rabid home court tonight is going to be all the difference in the world.
I like Golden State to come through tonight. I know the spread is hovering around a basket, and we will probably have to win this game outright, but I definitely think Baron Davis is capable of leading the Warriors past the Mavericks in this game.
Go with Golden State plus any points available.
10 DIMER - MINNESOTA TWINS WITH ORTIZ
How did the Twins blow last night's game!??!?!?!!?
Minny was sitting on a 3-1 lead with their closer Joe Nathan all set to close it out, but they wound up losing it 4-3 in 10 innings of play.
I expect Minnesota to bounce-back with the win in the series finale today. The Twins own a 6-2 record at Tampa Bay the last couple of years, and they are 15-4 overall against Tampa since 2005. I know the past results came when the Rays had some bad squads and Tampa is vastly improved this season, but I still think Minny is the better team on the field tonight.
Go with the Twins
Rob House
3,000,000* NBA Playoffs Triple Your Wager Game of the Year #6 (4-1 on these so far)
3,000,000? Utah Jazz
500,000? Golden State Warriors
500,000? San Francisco Giants W/ Cain
Drew Gordon...
1. 200,000? Jazz
2. 100,000? Astros
3. 100,000? Giants
1. Jazz- First and foremost, this is an elimination game for the Jazz in front of their home crowd... The perfect spot for them to salvage their season and take this series to 7 games! Granted, winning a Game 7 in Houston will be tough, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Utah has been spectacular at home this season, winning 33 games in Salt Lake City, including winning and covering both games at home in this series.
Second, while there's no arguing how good T-Mac and Yao have been this series, their role players leave a lot to be desired, especially on the road where they seem to utterly disappear. Go back to tapes of Games 3 & 4 and you'll see exactly what I mean. T-Mac and Yao can drop 30 points each, but if their role players barely contribute they'll get blown out tongiht.
Finally, while a lot has been made of the youth and inexperience of the Jazz, playing at home tonight works tremendously in their favor. Young or inxperienced players have a tendency to get overwhelmed on the road, only to play much better at home. Take Deron Williams for example, as the catalyst of this Jazz offense, when he struggles, they struggle. He was great in Game 4 and should once again find his stroke in Game 6.
Bottom line, two players cannot beat an entire team, plain and simple. The Jazz will benefit greatly from the home cookin', as their role players easily outscore Houston's. Not only that, but Utah's formidable frontcourt has also played much better at Salt Lake. Jazz protect their house and save their season in the process, at least for one more game.
Take the Jazz comfortably over the Rockets as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Astros- Interesting match up here as two winless pitchers face-off in this match up. However, once you break down this game, you'll see the Astros are the clear choice in this one.
First and foremost, you've got two southpaws facing off, both of which are desperately searching for their first win of the season. The only problem for the Reds Eric Milton is he'll be facing an Astros team which despite an overall below average offense, has hit lefties well this season, averaging .268 against them.
The same cannot be said for the Reds facing Wandy Rodriguez, as Cincinnati has struggled against left-handed pitching, averaging .244 and making a bad habit of striking out against them, with 81 Ks against southpaws this season.
Next, you've got to consider the two bullpens, one of the biggest disparities between these two clubs. The Astros have posted a 3.88 bullpen ERA, incl. 2.87 ERA over their last 3 games. While the Reds have posted a 4.46 bullpen ERA, with an astronomical 6.35 ERA over their last 3... Starting to see my point?!
Bottom line, the knock against the Astros has always been offense, but in this case, they should do just fine against southpaw Eric Milton tonight. While Rodriguez shouldn't have much trouble against a Reds club that just wants to go home after their 9-game road trip ends tonight.
Take the Astros behind Rodriguez over the Reds in this NL Central showdown.
3. Giants- Talk about a pitching mismatch, as Adam Eaton squares off against the Giants ace Matt Cain. What can you say about Eaton, except he struggled through April. His 7.71 ERA should tell you something, and the fact he got two wins should also tell you something about the Phillies offense. This time around however, the Phillies batting order won't be there to save him. Why? Two words: Matt Cain.
Despite his 1-1 record, Cain has posted an extraordinary 1.54 ERA. He also leads the league in opponents batting average, allowing them to hit just .100 so far this season. Those numbers are impressive to say the least, and with the Giants offense hitting well , Cain will get more than enough support to bury the Phillies in this one.
Besides the fact Bonds has hit Eaton very well, the Giants as a team are hitting .274 against righties over their last 10 games. After getting swept at Arizona, San Fran has rebounded well at home, taking 2 of 3 from Colorado and are poised to take this first game from Philadelphia.
While the Phillies offense has been red-hot, Matt Cain has a way of cooling off hot hitters in a hurry. Don't expect the same results from Eaton, who's coming off his worst start of the year, allowing 7 runs on 7 hits over 4 2/3 innings, while walking 4 against the Braves. He hasn't done much better against the Giants, going 2-5 with a 4.57 ERA in 13 career appearances. Bottom line, Giants protect their house behind a strong pitching edge in this one!
Take the Giants behind Cain over the Phillies in late MLB action.
Maverick (Posted By Desperadoo69)
Royals, early game,
Houston NBA.
Winning Points
all 5*-
Minn,
SF,
NYM,
they also slipped when I called and gave me Hous.NBA 5*, I have no idea what there record is for the NBA.GL
Thursday's Comps
Sebastian-UNDER Phil.
Computer Boys-San Francisco
Winner Line-San Francisco
OTM-OVER Mets
Northeastern Sports-Phil.
Kevin Kennedy-Yankees(he conveniently doesn't mention which game;then again, perhaps he didn't take the time to see there is a doubleheader today.)
Feiner-OVER Cleveland
Gaston-OVER Dallas
Bob Balfe:
YTD = 40-32
NBA Basketball
Rockets +4.5 over Jazz
Mavs -2.5 over Warriors
MLB Baseball
Phillies +120 over Rockies
Eaton/Cain
----------------------------------
Proffit Plays
Triple plays = 51-49
Boston
Milwaukee
Cleveland
Daily Best Bets
YTD = 18-16
Golden State +2.5
--------------------------------------
TonyK's Play of the Day (PicksPal)
Minnesota at Tampa Bay (MLB), 7:10 PM ET
Ramon Ortiz didn't earn a win in his last start, but he continued to pitch well enough to put the Twins in a situation to win. Ortiz scraped together six innings and likely could have gone longer if he handled the strike zone better. He gave up two runs on five hits and four walks, but threw 107 pitches. He left with the Twins trailing, 2-0, although they eventually went on to win, 5-3. His 6-1 career record against the Rays is his best against any team he's faced.
James Shields has turned into the staff's most consistent pitcher, and the right-hander's encore performance following the best outing of his career demonstrated as much. Shields allowed just one run on four hits, while striking out nine against the A's on Friday night to claim his second win of the season. Shields is 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA in one career start against the Twins.
Play the Twins (-120)
CALIFORNIA SPORTS (7-1 MLB totals) :
4* Minn./T.B. over
