I’ll save you guys the $8. 8-1 2 weeks ago, 7-3 last week, everyone talking and asking about mti and no one buys it?
4-Star Colts at Texans UNDER 45.5 The Texans are off a 41-7 beat-down at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. The much anticipated Lamar Jackson vs Deshaun Watson rematch was a dud. Houston had 23:41 of possession time and Watson was sacked seven times.
Good teams off bad offensive performances have been strong UNDER plays when they are facing a divisional opponent. Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-26 OU vs a divisional opponent when they are off a road game in which they had more punts than third down conversions, had fewer than 370 yards of offense, and failed on fewer than five red zone attempts. The SDQL text is:
DIV and 10
=20141214
As a team, the Texans are 0-9 OU (-10.28 ppg) at home after a game in which less than 22 percent of their opponents first downs were from third down, 0-8 OU (-8.69 ppg) off a loss as a dog in which they were outscored by at least ten points in the second half, and 0-7 OU (-12.86 ppg) vs a divisional opponent after a game in which their QB was sacked four-plus times. The SDQL for the last of this trio is a straightforward:
team=Texans and DIV and 4<=po:sacks and date>=20171105
Note that each of their last three in this spot stayed under by more than two TDs.
As for the Colts, we find that they are 0-8 OU as a dog on turf off a win in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average and a nice 0-9 OU on turf vs a team that has averaged at least seven rushing first downs per game and had fewer than a dozen rushing first downs in their last game. The SDQL for the second of this pair is:
team=Colts and surface=artificial and oA(RFD) >=7 and op:RFD<12 and date>=20141000
Note that the average final score in these nine games has been 19.7 points to 14.4 points.
This is for the divisional lead, as both teams are 6-4. We expect a cautious approach from both squads. We make the play the UNDER.
MTis FORECAST: Colts 20 TEXANS 17