Thursday Night NFL Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

~DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders on their web site on X~ copied and pasted .Not Responsible for typing errors. All Bet's Made Tuesday Afternoon William Hill Sports Book.

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The Denver Broncos are undefeated through their first four home games and hold a one-game lead over Los Angeles for the top spot in the AFC West Division. The Broncos (7-2) rank third in the NFL in total defense and are allowing 18.4 points per contest. On Sunday, Will Lutz nailed a 34-yard field goal as time expired to lift Denver to an 18-15 road victory against Houston. This is game is going to be won by the Denver defense, as it ranks in the top five in the league in EPA/Play and the Raiders are a bottom five team in EPA/Play on offense.

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The Raiders have been competitive in Sin City, but the same cannot be said when they hit the road. Pete Carroll's team lost the last three road games by an average margin of 27.3 points, allowing 384 yards of total offense against per game. Raiders' offense averaged only 248 yards in those defeats against mostly mediocre defenses. Before facing the Jaguars in Week 9, the Raiders had the 30th-ranked offensive DVOA and the 29th-ranked offensive EPA per play. While Brock Bowers' return to the lineup is somewhat disconcerting, the Broncos' defense is as elite as they come, and Vance Joseph's unit should do a much better job at minimizing his impact than Jacksonville did.

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Denver trailed 15-7 entering the fourth quarter, but evened things up on a 27-yard touchdown pass from Bo Nix to R.J. Harvey and a successful two-point conversion attempt. J.K. Dobbins added a game-high 61 rushing yards for the Broncos, who limited the Texans to 3-for-17 on third down. Denver All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain missed Sunday’s victory with a pectoral injury and will likely remain sidelined for this game. The Raiders are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss and have three days to get ready to face an elite defense at altitude. Take the Broncos to win and cover at home. Final Score Prediction, Denver Broncos win 28-13.

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My Bet Broncos Money Line -$475 X 10 with press//////// 2 Team 7 Point Teaser >> Denver Broncos -2 & Over 35 1/2 X 3 with a press

​ Las Vegas Raiders ​	+380​	+9​	O 42.5​
​ Denver Broncos ​	-475​	-9​	U 42.5​
Moneyline Movements: 20 Spread Movements: None Total Points Movements: 3	William Hill Sports Book​	Sportsbook Edge +3.58%​
Las Vegas Raiders Win Probability: 20.83% Denver Broncos Win Probability: 82.99% 20.83% 82.99% Denver will Win, Cover the Spread, and the Total will go Over.		DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders
Prediction: The Denver Broncos are heavily favored to win Thursday Night Football against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a projected low-scoring game and a likely cover of the 9-point spread. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the Week 10 matchup:

Team Form & Momentum

• Denver Broncos (7–2):
  • Riding a six-game winning streak, tied for the best record in the NFL.
  • Defense ranks #1 in sacks (40) and excels in third-down and red zone efficiency.
  • QB Bo Nix has led multiple comeback wins and thrives in tight games.
  • Denver has won five games by one score and both losses came on last-second field goals.
• Las Vegas Raiders (2–6):
• Lost six of their last seven games, including a heartbreaking OT loss to Jacksonville.
• Despite flashes from QB Geno Smith and TE Brock Bowers (3 TDs in Week 9), the team lacks consistency.
• Coach Pete Carroll is struggling to stabilize the offense and run game.

In their first matchup early in the season in Denver, the Broncos handled business with a final score of 34-18. At that point, the Raiders were coming off wins over the Browns and Ravens and looked like they had some hope. They’ve fallen into complete disrepair since then. Over their six-game losing streak, they’ve only covered the spread twice.

Denver on the other hand is the third-best team in the league against the spread. Their ATS record sits at 8-3 and they’ve covered in four of their last five games. This is two teams moving in very different discretions, and Denver needs to win by less than one score. It’s an easy Broncos win

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

*****B&Rs Expert Comprehensive Rating,Stats,Matchups with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders

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Prediction: Denver Broncos are favored to win Thursday’s Week 10 matchup against Pete Carroll’s Raiders but expect a gritty divisional battle with coaching experience playing a key role.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the coaching duel and game dynamics:

Coaching Matchup: Pete Carroll vs Sean Payton
• Pete Carroll (Raiders):
• Brings decades of experience and a defensive-minded philosophy.
• Known for motivating underdog squads and maximizing effort, even in tough seasons.
• Raiders are struggling at 2–6, but Carroll remains focused on balance and resilience.
• Sean Payton (Broncos):
• Offensive mastermind with a Super Bowl pedigree.
• Has revitalized Denver with a 7–2 record, riding a six-game win streak.
• First AFC head-to-head with Carroll, though they share a storied NFC history (e.g., Beast Quake vs Payton’s Saints).

Game Context & Key Factors
• Short Week Challenge:
• Raiders are coming off an overtime loss to Jacksonville, while Denver is surging.
• Carroll emphasized the need for balance and discipline on a short turnaround.
Quarterback Battle:
• Bo Nix (Broncos): Rookie QB showing poise and efficiency, benefiting from Payton’s system.
• Aidan O’Connell (Raiders): Inconsistent play, struggling behind a shaky offensive line.
• Defensive Edge:
• Denver’s defense ranks top 10 in points allowed, while Raiders have been vulnerable against the run and deep passes.

Betting & Prediction
• Odds: Broncos are favored by 9 points.
• Prediction: Broncos 27, Raiders 17
• Denver’s momentum, home-field advantage, and coaching synergy give them the edge.
• Carroll’s Raiders may keep it close early, but lack of offensive firepower could be decisive.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Statistical Analysis
The Broncos hold a significant statistical advantage across most key metrics in the 2025 season:

2025 Regular Season Stats	Raiders	Broncos
Total Offense	283.3 ypg (30th)	347.3 ypg (13th)
Rushing Offense	89.1 ypg (29th)	133.6 ypg (7th)
Points Per Game	16.5 ppg (29th)	25.0 ppg (14th)
Total Defense	333.4 ypg (19th)	279.9 ypg (3rd)
Points Allowed Per Game	26.3 ppg (23rd)	18.4 ppg (4th)
Sacks	16 (25th)	40 (1st)

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

NFL Football - Power Rankings​

NFL Power Rankings Notes:​

The above power rankings include Mitch Bannon's personal power rankings after Week 15 as well as the 'combined power ranking' generated by our computer, based on data from the 2024-25 season, so far.
Oddsshark

Team	OS Computer Rank	Power	Schedule	Adjusted Power
Detroit	1	+31.20	0.51	+15.95
Kansas City	2	+11.99	0.57	+6.83
Philadelphia	3	+17.75	0.54	+9.63
Indianapolis	4	+34.55	0.48	+16.51
Buffalo	5	+29.50	0.40	+11.80
Green Bay	6	+11.95	0.46	+5.50
Denver	7	+38.99	0.44	+17.16
Tampa Bay	8	+19.88	0.50	+9.94
Seattle	9	+28.37	0.51	+14.47
LA Rams	10	+27.93	0.51	+14.25
New England	11	+26.07	0.33	+8.69
LA Chargers	12	+20.02	0.42	+8.45
San Francisco	13	-2.07	0.48	-1.08
Minnesota	14	-5.58	0.52	-2.67
Jacksonville	15	-3.78	0.52	-1.81
Dallas	16	-4.18	0.50	-2.09
Chicago	17	-5.10	0.45	-2.81
Washington	18	-11.86	0.47	-6.32
Atlanta	19	-10.65	0.58	-4.53
NY Giants	20	-23.58	0.53	-11.20
Cincinnati	21	-27.30	0.51	-13.35
Baltimore	22	+12.20	0.50	+6.10
Pittsburgh	23	-11.19	0.52	-5.35
Arizona	24	+8.90	0.50	+4.45
Houston	25	+12.44	0.61	+7.62
New Orleans	26	-34.26	0.62	-12.94
Las Vegas	27	-27.40	0.51	-13.40
Miami	28	-23.79	0.53	-11.10
Cleveland	29	-30.64	0.51	-14.94
Tennessee	30	-50.02	0.61	-19.38
NY Jets	31	-21.77	0.54	-10.07
Carolina	32	-9.66	0.44	-5.37

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[Green17]

Thanks Harry!!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Thanks Harry!!

Let's Just Win Mr. Green

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Las Vegas Raiders, I don't think so!!!!!, not with these stat's>>>> Against Denver at home. Total Yards per Game	283.25	rank 30
Rush yards per Game	89.13	29
Passing yards per game	194.13	24
Average score for	16.50	29
Total yards allowed per game	333.38	19
Total rush yards allowed per game	109.38	16
Defensive passing yards	224.00	21
Average score against	26.25	23

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Denver at home!!!!! I think so big time!!!! With these stats!!!

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Total Yards per Game	347.33	Rank 13
Rush yards per Game	133.56	7
Passing yards per game	213.78	17
Average score for	25.00	14
Total yards allowed per game	279.89	3
Total rush yards allowed per game	93.11	8
Defensive passing yards	186.78	6
Average score against	18.44	4

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

What future this kid has with Denver and great coaching staff

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The main quarterback for the Denver Broncos is Bo Nix. He was the team's first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft and has been the starter since his rookie season.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Sunday Early Review DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Web site on X

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I like the Buccaneers in this spot at home and coming off their Week 9 bye. Tampa has a handful of statement wins on the ledger, and I’m expecting the extra week of rest and preparation to make the difference in this game. Look for the Tampa Bay defense to show up and play New England quarterback Drake Maye tough. He’s been sacked six times in consecutive weeks, and the Pats offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate for the year, after all. Additionally, while the New England defense is popping in most advanced metrics, the Patriots also rank 25th in defensive DVOA – which accounts for strength of schedule. New England ranking 28th in pressure percentage and 23rd in pass rush win rate also has my attention because there is a notable gap in Tampa QB Baker Mayfield’s numbers when pressured and when throwing from a clean pocket. Lean by me Tampa -2 1/2. New England’s passing game should keep the Patriots close, but Tampa Bay’s defense and success at home are difficult to overlook. Expect a competitive matchup that stays within one score, with Tampa Bay scoring late to win. Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers win and cover ATS 27-23.