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Market update


8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-6)

The public sees a line that looks way too good to be true and two-thirds of bets are grabbing the points with the Steelers. However, despite this heavy support, the line has either stayed the same or moved to Browns -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Browns. This betting breakdown and line movement looks a lot like last week's game when the public was all over the Bills, but sharps faded the trendy dog and backed the Browns. Home favorites on Thursday Night Football are 71-48 ATS (59.7%) since 2003 according to Bet Labs Sports.

Sharps have sided with the Browns, but if you're wary of laying the points, the Steelers fit multiple dog spots that have been highly profitable this season. Pittsburgh is a road dog (57-35 ATS, 62% this year), a short road dog +6 or less (39-25 ATS, 61%), a divisional dog (25-17 ATS, 60%) and a road divisional dog (16-7 ATS, 70%).

A slight majority of bets are taking the over, pushing the total from 40 to 41. The forecasts calls for 10-12 mph winds at the Dawg Pound. Windy unders 10 mph or more are 450-360 (55.6%) since 2003.
 

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Divisional unders are 25-18 (58%) this season

Primetime unders are 19-12 (61%) this season
 

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Steelers (1H) Under on the Road (3-0)

0-20 @ NE (U) Roethlisberger
6-3 @ SF (U) Rudolph
21-0 @ LAC (U) Rudolph

Browns (1H) Under at Home (3-1)

6-12 vs Ten (U)
6-3 vs LAR (U)
20-18 vs Sea (O)
9-7 vs Buf (U)
 

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Steelers:

17-3 SU in their last 20 night games

26-3-1 SU in their last 30 games vs Cleveland

8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a dog
 

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Sports Interaction

Currently, 74% of the betting action like the Steelers (+2.5) over the Browns
 

my clock is stuck on 420 time to hit this bong
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Thank you for sharing job well done
 

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NFL first year Head Coaches on a short week are:

13-23-1 ATS since 2012 ... at Home they are 6-13-1 ATS

Freddie Soup Kitchens
 

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Browns rank #28 in the league in giveaways, averaging 2/game

Steelers defense ranks #2 in takeaways, averaging 3/game

Steelers have #2 pass rush with 33 sacks

Browns OL is #21 in pass protection with 25 sacks allowed
 

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Browns rank #28 in the league in giveaways, averaging 2/game

Steelers defense ranks #2 in takeaways, averaging 3/game

Steelers have #2 pass rush with 33 sacks

Browns OL is #21 in pass protection with 25 sacks allowed


THIS is the key...
GL!
 

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NY/K...…...appreciate the info buddy...…….BOL with your action...…….indy
 

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Browns rank #28 in the league in giveaways, averaging 2/game

Steelers defense ranks #2 in takeaways, averaging 3/game

Steelers have #2 pass rush with 33 sacks

Browns OL is #21 in pass protection with 25 sacks allowed

Browns had 1 turnover last 2 games
O-line was injured all season until lw.
FWIW
 

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The last time Cleveland beat Pittsburgh was October of 2014

Steelers are 33-4-1 SU since 2000 vs Cleveland (last 38 games)

Since 1995, the Steelers have a 36-6-1 record vs. Cleveland



 

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Draft Kings Sportsbook


Steelers (+3) ... 81% Handle ... 82% Tix
 

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Add on to above post (Draft Kings)


Steelers (ML) ... 83% Handle ... 86% Tix

Over 41.5 ... 63% Handle ... 60% Tix
 

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Caesars Palace Sportbooks

"Public pounding the Steelers in all of our seven states, both plus the points and on moneyline. Very little sharp action on either side."
 

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Global market

Public on Steelers and the Over

Sharp buy on Cleveland at -2.5 ... Sharp money dried up on the move to -3
 

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Caesars Palace Sportbooks

The total opened at 40.5, dipped to 40 Monday, then steadily ticked up to 42.

“Sharp and public money on the Over"

“We are one of the few 42s available, and there has been minimal interest on the Under ... 5x as much money on the Over currently.”
 

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