Sakio Bika even
Peter Manfredo Jr. -130
My play:
Sakio Bika even *4 units*
For some reason the oddsmakers are really overvaluing the fact that this fight is taking place in Rhode Island... Manfredo's backyard. At a neutral venue, I feel like Bika should be at least a solid 2-1 favorite (-200 or more). Manfredo gained fame by fighting on the first season of The Contender, finishing 2nd after losing to Sergio Mora in the finals. Bika fought on the third season of The Contender and won after beating Jaidon Codrington in the finals. Among fight enthusiasts, the third season of The Contender is considered to have had a better talent pool than the first. Moreover, Bika has faced more top level competition than Manfredo; Bika's resume is much more impressive. Bika has been in with Calzaghe, Lucian Bute, Codrington, Sam Soliman (twice), and Markus Beyer. Manfredo has been in with Sergio Mora (twice), Calzaghe, and Jeff Lacy (who is very overrated in my opinion). Their one noteworthy common opponent is Joe Calzaghe. Bika gave Calzaghe a tough fight, losing a UD but actually taking a couple rounds. Manfredo was stopped in the 3rd round by Calzaghe.
Anyway, let's take a look at the style of the fighters. Bika has a great chin and has never been stopped in a fight. His style is awkward and cagey. His technical skills are decent but not spectacular. He has solid power for a super middleweight and is an all-around hard nosed fighter. His style isn't pretty, but he almost always makes other fighters look bad. He's the Ron Artest of the division... awkwardly aggressive but very effective and tough as nails.
Manfredo, on the other hand, is like the Mike Dunleavy Jr. of the super middleweight division... he does everything above average, and nothing great. Manfredo has very little power and has almost no chance of stopping Bika. His skills are decent but nothing to write home about. He is more technically sound than Bika but also more predictable.
The only way I envision Manfredo winning is via robbery... if the fight is close the ref could take points away from Bika for his awkward, filthy style. The hometown factor (crowd, judges, ref) could help Manfredo "win" a close round or 2 in the fight, but I just don't see this fight being very close. As mentioned before, the only way Manfredo can win the fight is by decision. He will not KO/TKO Bika. Bika has the power to possibly stop Manfredo, and I also like his chances of winning a decision because I see him landing the cleaner, more effective power punches throughout the fight.
Bika has 2 ways he can win (KO/TKO or decision) and Manfredo has 1 way to win (decision). Seeing as though I still favor Bika to win should the fight go to the cards, I recommend a 4 unit play on Bika. The value on this play is through the roof in my opinion. The only thing I'm worried about is some shady hometown business going down, but I think that if the ref/judges are even mildly fair then Bika wins this. I rate Manfredo as a B- fighter and Bika as a B+ fighter. This is one of those rare instances where I feel the oddsmakers are way off and you should get your money down on this play as soon as possible before the payout on Bika gets worse.
Take Sakio Bika with confidence.
ope:
Peter Manfredo Jr. -130
My play:
Sakio Bika even *4 units*
For some reason the oddsmakers are really overvaluing the fact that this fight is taking place in Rhode Island... Manfredo's backyard. At a neutral venue, I feel like Bika should be at least a solid 2-1 favorite (-200 or more). Manfredo gained fame by fighting on the first season of The Contender, finishing 2nd after losing to Sergio Mora in the finals. Bika fought on the third season of The Contender and won after beating Jaidon Codrington in the finals. Among fight enthusiasts, the third season of The Contender is considered to have had a better talent pool than the first. Moreover, Bika has faced more top level competition than Manfredo; Bika's resume is much more impressive. Bika has been in with Calzaghe, Lucian Bute, Codrington, Sam Soliman (twice), and Markus Beyer. Manfredo has been in with Sergio Mora (twice), Calzaghe, and Jeff Lacy (who is very overrated in my opinion). Their one noteworthy common opponent is Joe Calzaghe. Bika gave Calzaghe a tough fight, losing a UD but actually taking a couple rounds. Manfredo was stopped in the 3rd round by Calzaghe.
Anyway, let's take a look at the style of the fighters. Bika has a great chin and has never been stopped in a fight. His style is awkward and cagey. His technical skills are decent but not spectacular. He has solid power for a super middleweight and is an all-around hard nosed fighter. His style isn't pretty, but he almost always makes other fighters look bad. He's the Ron Artest of the division... awkwardly aggressive but very effective and tough as nails.
Manfredo, on the other hand, is like the Mike Dunleavy Jr. of the super middleweight division... he does everything above average, and nothing great. Manfredo has very little power and has almost no chance of stopping Bika. His skills are decent but nothing to write home about. He is more technically sound than Bika but also more predictable.
The only way I envision Manfredo winning is via robbery... if the fight is close the ref could take points away from Bika for his awkward, filthy style. The hometown factor (crowd, judges, ref) could help Manfredo "win" a close round or 2 in the fight, but I just don't see this fight being very close. As mentioned before, the only way Manfredo can win the fight is by decision. He will not KO/TKO Bika. Bika has the power to possibly stop Manfredo, and I also like his chances of winning a decision because I see him landing the cleaner, more effective power punches throughout the fight.
Bika has 2 ways he can win (KO/TKO or decision) and Manfredo has 1 way to win (decision). Seeing as though I still favor Bika to win should the fight go to the cards, I recommend a 4 unit play on Bika. The value on this play is through the roof in my opinion. The only thing I'm worried about is some shady hometown business going down, but I think that if the ref/judges are even mildly fair then Bika wins this. I rate Manfredo as a B- fighter and Bika as a B+ fighter. This is one of those rare instances where I feel the oddsmakers are way off and you should get your money down on this play as soon as possible before the payout on Bika gets worse.
Take Sakio Bika with confidence.
ope:
