Thursday NCAA Tournament Games (24-15 Postseason, 63-54 YTD)

[GoForIt]

Here is my first official NCAA Tournament play and I will NOT be playing any NIT games this week (at least not in the 1st Round). Furthermore, I will be adding some games throughout the week up until Thursday. My opening pick is a little against the public as of right now according to thespread.com, but that could change by Thursday. It doesn't really matter because there are some situational systems on the team I like and the team I am playing against.
The SEC got 3 teams in this year, but probably would have ended up with only 2 if they didn't get a conference tournament winner. That team is Miss. State who is led by Jarvis Varnado. However, I think their success will be short-lived. Miss. State comes in OFF 6 ATS Wins a Row while Washington is OFF an ATS Loss. That alone creates a dangerous situation historically and is keeping the line somewhat low IMO. Vegas has to adjust for a team OFF 6 ATS Wins in a row.Furthermore, Miss. State is OFF a SU Dog Win in their Conference Championship game while Washington is a high seeded team OFF a SU Loss not in their Conference Championship game. Obviously, there are some more parameters that makes some of these situations pop, but Washington qualifies. On top of that, Miss State comes in OFF 3 SU Dog Wins in a Row which is keeping the line low also. Another point is that this game will be played in the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon so you know Washington will have alot more fans for the game. This same Miss. State team played Washington's rival (Washington State) earlier in the year on a neutral court and they lost
by 11. Obviously, Washington is alot better than Washington State this year. Miss. State likes to play their so-called physical style grind out game and they do this by rebounding. This just in. Washington leads the Pac-10 in Total Rebounds, Offensive Rebounds, and Defensive Rebounds. Thats called dominating the glass and that is no surprise due to the man in the middle for Washington named Jon Brockman. So Miss. State may try to double Jon Brockman. Thats fine. Washington has a guy named Justin Dentmon who makes a ridiculous 42% 3-Point range. Furthermore, Washington has four guys averaging in double-figures which shows the balance of this team. Right now the public is on Miss. State according to thespread.com probably due to their win streak and the fact that they Miss. State is a so-called tough team and those guys in the Pac-10 are soft. That is how some of them think. Well, they will get a surprise when they see Brockman play and I don't think they will like it.
TAKE WASHINGTON -5

 

[GoForIt]

Some of those numbers on the situational systems above are there is a 19-3 ATS situational system favoring Washington and a 22-7 ATS situional system that goes against
Miss. State and the third one I'll keep to myself, but its not a bad one.

 

[doogieboy]

good info,GFI
Thanks

 

[GoForIt]

Here comes the second game. Again, I like another Pac-10 team, but this was not planned and my favorite teams are not even in the Pac-10. Here I like California -1. Here the line dropped to where I wanted it. I don't mind giving up a point even if it drops any further. California opened up as a favorite despite being OFF BB SU Losses while Maryland is OFF an ATS Win. That is usually a solid situation. Furthermore, Maryland is below a certain
win % which puts them in another go-against situation. It also doesn't hurt that so far the public is 75% on Maryland. Again, the public is showing little respect for the Pac-10 as mentioned in the first article. I really like Cal because they can flat out shoot the ball. They hit 49% of their shots and an insane 43% from 3-Pointers as a team. They also hit 76% of their free-throws which could come in handy if its close. Cal's top three scorers are dangerous from beyond-the-arc and their FG% and 3-Point % are mind-boggling, hence the high team % from three. Maryland is all about Greivis Vasquez and he is only 31% from three and 39% from FG%. Maryland played Duke three teams this year (a 3 Point Shooting Team) and they gave up over 40% from three each game. Cal is a better shooting team than Duke. There I said it. Cal shoots the lights out. I know the public saw Florida State win against California so that is one reason why they are jumping on Maryland, but I disagree. Cal was actually down in that Florida State game, but rallied only to lose by 3. This happened the other night when I had USC against California in the Pac-10 tournament. I thought USC was easy, but then I had to sweat it out as Cal kept coming and coming. This Cal team has alot of heart. Furthermore, the Golden Bears beat regular season Pac-10 champ Washington twice this year. They also had some non-conference road wins at Utah and and at UNLV, two tough places to win. To be honest, I'm surprised Maryland is even in the tournament. Maybe they will prove me wrong, but I thought they were NIT bound. Maryland comes in OFF 3 ATS Wins while Cal is OFF BB ATS Losses, That is usually another good situation.
TAKE CALIFORNIA -1

 

[GoForIt]

Now I'm adding a 5 Point Teaser that will involve 2 NIT Games tonight and a NCAA Tournament Thursday Game

Here is the 3-Team 5 Point Teaser and it pays at (+140 moneyline)

New Mexico -2.5 (My Lobos are dangerous at home and the teaser line is low enough for them to cover IMO, especially against an average at best Big 12 Team, remember New Mexico beat Ole Miss out of the SEC (an average SEC team at best) by 33 points in the PIT earlier this year
Notre Dame -1.5 (The Irish are 49-3 SU in their last 52 Home Games and now they play someone from Conference USA
Washington (Pickem) Obviously, I said to take Washington -5 above also as a separate play, but here I also get Pickem on Washington so I love it also because you never know even when you know, you know
I like this teaser, but I'll see how it goes. BOL to everyone.

 

[GoForIt]

Now I'm adding a 5 Point Teaser that will involve 2 NIT Games tonight and a NCAA Tournament Thursday Game

Here is the 3-Team 5 Point Teaser and it pays at (+140 moneyline)

New Mexico -2.5 (My Lobos are dangerous at home and the teaser line is low enough for them to cover IMO, especially against an average at best Big 12 Team, remember New Mexico beat Ole Miss out of the SEC (an average SEC team at best) by 33 points in the PIT earlier this year
Notre Dame -1.5 (The Irish are 49-3 SU in their last 52 Home Games and now they play someone from Conference USA
Washington (Pickem) Obviously, I said to take Washington -5 above also as a separate play, but here I also get Pickem on Washington so I love it also because you never know even when you know, you know
I like this teaser, but I'll see how it goes. BOL to everyone.

2 legs complete, 1 leg to go after The Lobos and Irish come through on my 3-team teaser, Now I get Washington as a Pickem to complete the teaser at (+140 moneyline)--This is like an insurance play in case Washington pushes or wins without covering. Obviously, I want Washington to win and cover because I have an ATS side bet on them (1st post on this page), but it feel great to have some insurance also
Furthermore, I'll be adding 1 more Pick for Thursday's games
Later and BOL

 

[GoForIt]

The final game I'm picking for Thursday will be one of the early games. This game takes place a little past HIGH NOON. Here I like Butler +2.5 (-120). Butler is a team with a win % over .800 and they are an underdog OFF a SU Loss. Furthermore, they are an underdog OFF a SU Favorite Loss as a #1 seed in their Conference Tournament on their home floor. Obviously, LSU is OFF a SU Loss as a Favorite as a #1 seed also. However, I'm going with Butler. LSU is a soft 0-3 SU against NCAA Tournament Teams out-of-the-conference this year. Butler also has impressive road wins at Xavier (very tough place to win) and at Davidson (still impressive road win despite Davidson not being in the Big Dance) You might ask who has LSU beaten on the road in Non-Conference play? Zero, Doughnut, Nada. They are 0-2 SU on the road in the Non-Conference Play and they lost to Texas A&M by 11 and Utah by 30. Yes, 30. Looks like I'll be going against the SEC again just like with the Washington pick posted on top of this page.
TAKE BUTLER +2.5 (-120)

 

[GoForIt]

So here is what I have tomorrow for Thursday's Games

12:20 PM---Butler +2.5 (-120)
2:55 PM (approximately)----California -1
4:55 PM (approximately)----Washington -5 (posted Monday)
4:55 PM (approximately)----Washington Pickem (posted Tuesday as part of a 3-team teaser at +140 Moneyline, Washington would complete the teaser)

BOL to everyone.

 

[GoForIt]

Cal was also posted on Monday overnight to Tuesday, forgot to mention that on previous post---It looks like some touts are on Washington also, thats alright they gotta lay 6 instead of 5 because they waited too long LOL
Hope everyone does well the next few weeks--
we're turning for home and ready to hit the stretch drive

 

[GoForIt]

so far 0-1 ATS as Butler hung around, but couldn't get over the hump----- still 3 plays left for the day, including my carryover teaser from Tuesday with Washington at Pickem,

 

[GoForIt]

so far 0-2 ATS as Cal blew it, I have 2 plays left for the day any they both involve Washington , I have Washington -5 and Washington at Pickem (+140 moneyline) to complete a
3-team teaser, I still have a chance to make money for the day somehow, Hopefully, I can pull it off

 

[GoForIt]

Somehow I made a little money for the day despite going 2-2 because of the teaser I hit at +140 moneyline----UW completed the 3-team teaser and they covered the side also,
great work Huskies!!!!!1
Now 26-17 in Postseason and 65-56 YTD