I've already posted my plays in my season long thread but wanted to give a little more of a write up on tonight's three games. These lines are the current lines but I won't be posting anymore plays until closer to kickoff for each game. As it stands I already have wagers placed on temple +3 and cal +3.5
*** my goal is not to persuade or dissuade anyone from their picks or selections and it's certainly not to boast or act more knowledgeable than any other capper. Just wanted to provide a good analysis of the games and give people some info they may be missing or overlooking****
Temple +3:
I'm seeing a lot of guys taking ECU for some hefty wagers and I can completely understand the decision making process behind it; this is a revenge game at home for ECU and they've got a freshly ranked temple opponent with notre Dame on deck. With that being said, here's my two cents: as you all know I'm not a huge stat guy when it comes to my selections and I made my pick for temple+3 as soon as the line came out, but I just took a look into their stats and everything I saw basically verified my eye test of what this team is. "Statistically" speaking temple ranks in the top 10 nationally for the following defensive stats....... Total defense, scoring defense, red zone defense, rushing defense, first down defense, third down conversion defense, and blocked punts .... Wow, I knew they were good but that's just gaudy. I'm sure you could find some stats that go against temple to, in fact many on offense I presume but those stats I listed are pretty damn important . In comparison ECU didn't rank in the top 50 in any of the team state I listed and some of their rankings were in the 80's, although I didn't bother checking the blocked punts lol. I also didn't see ECU in the top 10 of any major offensive categories although I'm positive they are within the top 50 of many because they do have a decent offense.
A lot of folks want to point out the revenge and look ahead scenarios but temple doesn't play notre dame until next Saturday, that's 9 days to prepare... Lot of time. Lastly here is one thing no one has mentioned. Temple and ECU are both in the AAC east division, temple in first and ECU second, so to think this game doesn't mean as much to temple is absurd, in fact I'm pretty sure they understand the importance of this game In terms of standings and conference title game implications. They will be motivated for this game as I believe it has quickly become a rivalry game for years to come.
when it comes to betting on college football there are five major factors I look at when breaking down a game in terms of who will win and lose.... Covering a spread involves slightly more factors.
here are the five I look at:
confidence, momentum, coaching, defense and talent
look at these two teams: temple has more confidence, more momentum, and a far superior defense. The talent is probably even with ECU having Better offensive talent and temple possessing more defensive talent. I would probably give a slight edge to the temple coach who I think will end up with a power five job very soon.
Thats td why I think temple wins. Giving them +3 tho is a very gracious.
Georgia southern +7
this seems to be the tendy pick and I'm going to follow the steam here. I don't know an enormous amount about either team other than they are both very good in their conference, so I can't elaborate a whole lot. I believe app state has a much better defense but getting 7 points in a huge game with conference title implications is way to tempting to pass up. Georgia southern has a deadly option attack and have virtually scored on anyone and everyone they play. That being said app state has been prepared well I'm sure, so they will be ready. Georgia southern is just very good at what they do and when a team is cut blocking you all game and feeding you misdirection all game it forces you to play perfect assignment football. App state will score, no doubt, but so will Georgia southern. This game is decided by a fg either way in my opinion so getting +7 with a team that loves to control the ball and clock the safer play and possibly the smarter play.
Cal +4
this comes down to a couple of things for me. One, this is a bounce back game for cal and Goff who will be a first round pick whenever he decides to leave for the NFL. He can make every throw in the book. Ucla is a recent disaster about to turn into a grease fire. Their best player blew out his knee, then left the team for the NFL and now they've lost two in a row. This has the makings of a train wreck with a freshman QB at the helm trying to right the ship and a defense getting exploited over the last 8 quarters. Hard to imagine they pull it together against one of the best QBs and purest passers in the nation. Give me Goff and cal in a straight up win but I'll take +3.5 or 4 all day to be safe.
**** any and all of these plays can lose and I understand that. If they do, it will not factor into how I cap my games, my beliefs and factors will always remain the same***
bol gentleman
*** my goal is not to persuade or dissuade anyone from their picks or selections and it's certainly not to boast or act more knowledgeable than any other capper. Just wanted to provide a good analysis of the games and give people some info they may be missing or overlooking****
Temple +3:
I'm seeing a lot of guys taking ECU for some hefty wagers and I can completely understand the decision making process behind it; this is a revenge game at home for ECU and they've got a freshly ranked temple opponent with notre Dame on deck. With that being said, here's my two cents: as you all know I'm not a huge stat guy when it comes to my selections and I made my pick for temple+3 as soon as the line came out, but I just took a look into their stats and everything I saw basically verified my eye test of what this team is. "Statistically" speaking temple ranks in the top 10 nationally for the following defensive stats....... Total defense, scoring defense, red zone defense, rushing defense, first down defense, third down conversion defense, and blocked punts .... Wow, I knew they were good but that's just gaudy. I'm sure you could find some stats that go against temple to, in fact many on offense I presume but those stats I listed are pretty damn important . In comparison ECU didn't rank in the top 50 in any of the team state I listed and some of their rankings were in the 80's, although I didn't bother checking the blocked punts lol. I also didn't see ECU in the top 10 of any major offensive categories although I'm positive they are within the top 50 of many because they do have a decent offense.
A lot of folks want to point out the revenge and look ahead scenarios but temple doesn't play notre dame until next Saturday, that's 9 days to prepare... Lot of time. Lastly here is one thing no one has mentioned. Temple and ECU are both in the AAC east division, temple in first and ECU second, so to think this game doesn't mean as much to temple is absurd, in fact I'm pretty sure they understand the importance of this game In terms of standings and conference title game implications. They will be motivated for this game as I believe it has quickly become a rivalry game for years to come.
when it comes to betting on college football there are five major factors I look at when breaking down a game in terms of who will win and lose.... Covering a spread involves slightly more factors.
here are the five I look at:
confidence, momentum, coaching, defense and talent
look at these two teams: temple has more confidence, more momentum, and a far superior defense. The talent is probably even with ECU having Better offensive talent and temple possessing more defensive talent. I would probably give a slight edge to the temple coach who I think will end up with a power five job very soon.
Thats td why I think temple wins. Giving them +3 tho is a very gracious.
Georgia southern +7
this seems to be the tendy pick and I'm going to follow the steam here. I don't know an enormous amount about either team other than they are both very good in their conference, so I can't elaborate a whole lot. I believe app state has a much better defense but getting 7 points in a huge game with conference title implications is way to tempting to pass up. Georgia southern has a deadly option attack and have virtually scored on anyone and everyone they play. That being said app state has been prepared well I'm sure, so they will be ready. Georgia southern is just very good at what they do and when a team is cut blocking you all game and feeding you misdirection all game it forces you to play perfect assignment football. App state will score, no doubt, but so will Georgia southern. This game is decided by a fg either way in my opinion so getting +7 with a team that loves to control the ball and clock the safer play and possibly the smarter play.
Cal +4
this comes down to a couple of things for me. One, this is a bounce back game for cal and Goff who will be a first round pick whenever he decides to leave for the NFL. He can make every throw in the book. Ucla is a recent disaster about to turn into a grease fire. Their best player blew out his knee, then left the team for the NFL and now they've lost two in a row. This has the makings of a train wreck with a freshman QB at the helm trying to right the ship and a defense getting exploited over the last 8 quarters. Hard to imagine they pull it together against one of the best QBs and purest passers in the nation. Give me Goff and cal in a straight up win but I'll take +3.5 or 4 all day to be safe.
**** any and all of these plays can lose and I understand that. If they do, it will not factor into how I cap my games, my beliefs and factors will always remain the same***
bol gentleman
