THURSDAY BASKETS ( 1 5 1 )

[one51rum]

OK well coming off a so-so night 15-8 but only 3-3 on BIG plays but made some money, bet Cal+4.5 but fell asleep before i could post it, i hit them last game 1st half and just felt 4 was too much actually got 4.5 but thats old news
441-332 57.0504528% my big plays are at a much higher rate but who cares not here for that..

1st play for thursday is i am taking the fighting Illini of Illinois -3 over Michigan st, Mich st is just not as good on the road so far, and i think Illinois is trying to make a statement since their main guy got arrested, both teams are coming off of losses, but Illinois did play well against purdue even missing their guy, this is kind of the same situation as with N.Western, Mich st is playing a team they have noit beaten in awhile as Illinois has won the last 3 , Illinois is 8-1 str up at home, Michigan st is 0-2 away, and i do favor the OVER in this game too, Mich st has went over in both road games this year, ...Illinois is shooting really well at home, but one thing is that Mich st is shooting the 3 well on the road at 41%, maybe thats why the OVERS have hit , But Illinois is shooting better at home 48.5% to 46.7% and from 2 its 57.6% to 48.3% but where i think they are going to have a real advantage is on the boards, as they avg 47 reb's at home to 31 for MSU away, 12 to 8 on offensive rebounding and those lead to extra shots ...Mich st is avg 73 and giving up 75 away -2 and Illinois at home is avg 81 pts and giving up 60 +21

Illinois-3 -120 (BIG)

 

[one51rum]

i am also going to go OVER 155 in the N.Col/Montana game, these 2 teams are scoring, N.Col is averaging 79 pts a game and giving up 81, away they avg 79 and give up 83, last 3 games they are avg 91 pts and giving up 82, and Montana who at home is avg 76 and giving up 66 , in their last 3 games they are avg 84.7 and giving up 72.3 , just look at their games this year, and i do sort of favor N.Col here on the road, they are shooting as well away as Montana does at home, and even though montana has won the last 2, when they play at Montana the games are very close they won 69-67 and then N.Col won at Montana 75-66 and the time before that at Montana, Montana won by 1 point, so grabbing 7 might be a play my guess is this line will go down , but the way N.Col has been scoring, and they have been giving up a lot too, i am going OVER this total and am going to take N Col also here because i think both cannot lose, but both could win ..N.Col the better shooting team here

OVER 155 Mont/N col

N.COL +7

also i looked at the mont st/N arizona game and kind of favored N.Ariz also at +4

 

[one51rum]

Looking at this UNCG@Samford game, i was looking into it and was really liking Samford and might still, but they have been missing a guy the last 2 games and he is out for this one, his name is Marshall, now he is avg like 10 pts a game, but where they miss him the most is rebounding, they were almost always leading in rebounds in their games but in the last 2 even though they are winning, they have not been rebounding well, and have lost the rebound battle in both wins, i went back and checked box scores over their last 5 games and this kid was getting 12 reb's 9 reb's and they were always leading in rebounds, since he has been out they have not lead in rebounds so just some info, its hard not lo like Samford-4 in this game, but i think if he was playing the line would be maybe 6...looking at the last 3 games UNCG leads samford in rebounds, but i still think you have to take Samford here because of their shooting, at home they are really good shooting 52.5% to UNCG 41% away, and from 2 they are shooting 56.8% at home to 50% for UNCG away, and from 3 its even better as they are shooting the 3 at 46.6% at home to 31% for UNCG away, and their effective shooting at home is 62.3% to 49% for UNCG away ...and they lead in regular season in all those too, and the last 3 games are big for them also, so they are the better shooting team in this game, but one area that worries me is the turnovers, UNCG is only turning it over 10 times a game to 15 for Samford, and its the same when its home vs away so that is a concern , but where they make up for it is in the ASSIST, which is big to me, as UNCG averages 13 a game to 19 a game for Samford, and when UNCG is away it drops to 10 assist to 21 at home for Samford , you always want a big diff in assist and to's , you get a team who averages more to's than assist its not good, be interesting to see where this goes...but i am going to try Samford -4 they have won the last 4 in this series and all the spreads have been 4 or fewer, so i'll lay 4 at home

SAMFORD-4

 

[one51rum]

i kind of favor St Thomas -1.5 or ML at home vs South dakota st, but SDSU has been playing well last 3 losing by just 2 at weber st, but their shooting has been really good the last 3 games ..i mean last 3 games SDSU is shooting 58% to 44% for St thomas, shooting the 2 68% to 53%, and effective shooting is 65% to 53% so thats why the line is what it is, 1.5 i mean the last 3 games they are averaging 81 points to 71 for st thomas, just makes me think about it more, we can get caught up in just looking at a line and OH MY GOD , not saying St thomas isnt the play, but looking into it i can see why the spread is what it is, i mean St Thomas has won their last 6 and 9 of 10 so when you see that line you do jump right to St Thomas which is what i did, and may still do, this will be interesting to see if this line moves or not and to where? sometimes sitting here thinking out loud and not even having a play is handicapping

 

[one51rum]

Looking at this UNCG@Samford game, i was looking into it and was really liking Samford and might still, but they have been missing a guy the last 2 games and he is out for this one, his name is Marshall, now he is avg like 10 pts a game, but where they miss him the most is rebounding, they were almost always leading in rebounds in their games but in the last 2 even though they are winning, they have not been rebounding well, and have lost the rebound battle in both wins, i went back and checked box scores over their last 5 games and this kid was getting 12 reb's 9 reb's and they were always leading in rebounds, since he has been out they have not lead in rebounds so just some info, its hard not lo like Samford-4 in this game, but i think if he was playing the line would be maybe 6...looking at the last 3 games UNCG leads samford in rebounds, but i still think you have to take Samford here because of their shooting, at home they are really good shooting 52.5% to UNCG 41% away, and from 2 they are shooting 56.8% at home to 50% for UNCG away, and from 3 its even better as they are shooting the 3 at 46.6% at home to 31% for UNCG away, and their effective shooting at home is 62.3% to 49% for UNCG away ...and they lead in regular season in all those too, and the last 3 games are big for them also, so they are the better shooting team in this game, but one area that worries me is the turnovers, UNCG is only turning it over 10 times a game to 15 for Samford, and its the same when its home vs away so that is a concern , but where they make up for it is in the ASSIST, which is big to me, as UNCG averages 13 a game to 19 a game for Samford, and when UNCG is away it drops to 10 assist to 21 at home for Samford , you always want a big diff in assist and to's , you get a team who averages more to's than assist its not good, be interesting to see where this goes...but i am going to try Samford -4 they have won the last 4 in this series and all the spreads have been 4 or fewer, so i'll lay 4 at home

SAMFORD-4

one thing about this line it has dropped it is showing this opened at 6, personally i do not care but i found it surprising is all

 

[one51rum]

another game i find interesting is La Tech-6 at MTSU i have bet on La tech a few times, and last second shots beat me, and they have had the toughest losses of anyone, they have lost 4 of their last 5 and in all those games they were winning, and somehow lost, they just lost at Sam Houston 77-81 , they lost at Grand Canyon 70-73, lost at st louis on a last second 3 74-75 and they lost at Seattle 73-79, so they are in every game, but what i find odd here is the total of 128???? i think the total points to a La Tech win and cover, I think La tech shows they can score in the 70's for sure, MTSU this year is averaging 60 pts a game, and gives up 68, at home they avg 66 and give up 66, so they are why the low total, Tech is avg 71 and 67, away they avg 70 and 72, my thought here is they are going to get 70, maybe 72 so for this to be an under MTSU should only score 58, i just do not see MTSU holding Tech to 60 , every away game for La tech has went over this number by 8 or more pts except 1 when they beat SFA 56-49 and MTSU at home has went over this number except 1 they lost to UAB 57-58, one thing i think i will do is play the TT on La tech , they have a 6 pt line 128 so thats 67-61 they have this game at being at, i look at this and i have it at 72-63 135 so OVER 128 is my play this line has dropped from -7 to -6 the total was actually 126, i think La tech can get 70 if they do this goes over unless its an blowout by 15 , but i think its like i said 72-63 74-64 so i have it going over with a minute+ left

Confirmation: 3092746​

Date Placed: 01/11/24 04:21:51
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 110.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 805 Louisiana Tech/Middle Tenn St over 128 (-110) risk 110.00 win 100.00 (NCAA Men)

 

[one51rum]

ok good night

opinions

Delaware-7, N Mex st+3, La tech-6, maybe Tenn Martin yes w.ill has a streak but Tenn martin playing better and shooting better and scoring

 

[Kaboom]

Great work Rum / 57% ... wow ... continued success bro

 

[indiana]

R/151.....solid capping (YTD) buddy....thank you....
here's to a winning Thurs.....BOL.....indy

 

[one51rum]

anyone interested i use about 8 books, betrivers, book maker, my bookie, betonline, betnow, betUS,Heritage,and SB, and a lot of the lines on what i played have not moved, Heritage does have Montana-6.5 but i went other way so happy there, and i see that some did lower New Mex st but i did get 3 buying up a half earlier but i think they are at 1.5 now, to be honest i am on New mexico st because they have covered about 4 in a row for me, very hot team covering right now, last 5 games they lost by 1 vs New mex, lost by 3 at stephen f austin, lost by 6 at Tulsa, and won last 2 as small fav so i am pretty sure they have covered last 5 could be off 1 but i am on them again , after i said good night i went and bet but went to bed..lol what has really hurt their away stats were big losses early this year where they lost by 40 to New Mexico but came back a week later and lost by 1 point to them, big loss at KY, and losing to S.ILL so 3 really good teams so when looking at stats you have to take that into account

Confirmation: 3092886​

Date Placed: 01/11/24 04:35:54
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 120.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 755 New Mexico State +3 Buy ½ (-120) risk 120.00 win 100.00 (NCAA Men)

 

[one51rum]

also as i said last night that i wanted to wait and see what would happen to some lines, one was St Thomas, and this morning and right now they are the same, so that helps me make my decision to just stick with what i thought to begin with and take St Thomas, and go Ml as i wrote this morning early , no line move so go with what i liked, probably would have anyway , but try to do my due diligence ...gl 151

Ticket Number: 753903200-1
Accepted Date: 01/11/24 11:53 GMT-5
Amount:$125.00
Status:
Pending
To win:$100.00
Type:Money Line
Description:
Basketball - NCAA - South Dakota State vs St. Thomas - Money Line | 790 St. Thomas -125 For Game | 01/11/2024 | 08:00:00 PM (EST) | Pending

 

[one51rum]

another one i mentioned was Delaware, Delaware is a team that i think is a pretty good team, they are just 10-6 but man even in their losses they were in every game, they have some very tough losses , losing 73-74 at OHIO, Losing 85-88 vs Rider, losing 82-84 vs Princeton, losing by 5 vs Hofstra, and to UNCG, and GW never losing by more than 11, now we have them on the road -6-7 at Campbell who is not a very bad team, actually a decent team, but i like Delaware here in this spot, they have never played and i expect a big effort from Delaware today after lkosing 3 of 4 by no more than 5 pts, they are 10-4 ats this year and 4-1 ats after a loss, and 5-1 ats away this year, Campbell is 2-3 ats at home this year and 5-7 overall, last 3 games they are shooting 48% to 41% for Campbell, and the 2 they are shooting 56.8% last 3 games to 44% for Campbell, the 3 point shooting is about even, and their effective shooting is 55% to 48.5% last 3, they should have an edge in rebounding, and in the turnovers, and they average 16 assist to 10 for Campbell so a lot of of little things also point me there...taking Delaware-6 -120

DELAWARE-6 -120

 

[one51rum]

i also am liking UTAH this line opens at -9.5 it's 8.5 id buy to 8 but i am hoping it goes down, you have a Utah team that has lost 2 in a row away now, and are now back home playing a team they have not beaten in a long time, UCLA is averaging 64 and giving up 63 a game, away they avg 63 and give up 66 -3, Utah is averaging 80 pts and giving up 71, +9 at home they avg 85 and give up 65 +19 ...and UCLA has not done well on the road vs good teams, they lost at Villanova and lost at Oregon, but also have lost their last 2 at home, losing 3 in a row and 7 of their last 8 and i am not sure UTAH is a place to get yourself better, their shooting on the road is not very good , shooting 40% away to 50% for UTAH at home, they shoot the 3 at 30% away and UTAH shoots it at 39% at home, the 2 UCLA shoots at 44% away to 57% for Utah at home and their effective shooting away is 44.5% and Utah at home is 57.8% and rebounds 42-34 edge Utah, defensive 31-21 edge utah, and at home Utah averages 20 assist to 11 to's UCLA is 11 assist to 11 to's ...i have not bet this because this could drop more but i think 8 is ok, 7 is better

 

[one51rum]

PLAYS
Illinois-3 (BIG)
Over 155 N.Col/Mont
N.Col +7
Samford-4
OVER 128 La Tech
New Mex st +3 buy half
Delaware-6 -120 buy half
St Thomas ML
UTAH-7 bought a point like at 8 alot but i am doing it

 

[one51rum]

Confirmation: 3094784​

Date Placed: 01/11/24 13:05:27
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 130.00 win 100.00
Bet Details:

1. 804 Utah U -7 Buy 1 (-130) risk 130.00 win 100.00 (NCAA Men)

long write up above gl 151

 

[one51rum]

also i have been looking at the Radford/Longwood game, both these teams i like, both have played well this year and both have lost lately, Radford lost 2 in a row at Clemson and at home to HP both good teams, and Longwood has lost 3 of last 4 but won the last game, but to me Radford has played really well on the road this year, yes they lost big at Clemson, but they won at W.Virginia and at Bucknell, they lost by 1 at Old Dom, lost by 3 at James Madison, i just think they can stay real close here at Longwood and would not give up on a chance to maybe win this game, all their games have been close, the biggest loss was by 10 most are below 5, the shooting is about the same here, RADFORD is 10-4 ats and 5-2 ats away this year and are 10-4 OVER , Longwood is 9-5 OVER and are 9-5 ats and 4-2 ats at home so i am taking Radford+6 buying the half -120

small play

Confirmation: 3094789​

Date Placed: 01/11/24 13:05:56
Header:
INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 60.00 win 50.00
Bet Details:

1. 306543 Radford +6 Buy ½ (-120) risk 60.00 win 50.00 (NCAA Men Extra Games)

 

[poppers]

Good Luck Rum!!

 

[one51rum]

Good Luck Rum!!

TY brother best of luck to you also

 

[one51rum]

also going with FAU-7 just think they bounce back big, that loss could maybe have lit a fire

Ticket Number: 753924729-1
Accepted Date: 01/11/24 02:42 GMT-5
Amount:$117.00
Status:
Pending
To win:$100.00
Type:Spread
Description:
Basketball - NCAA - Florida Atlantic vs Tulane - Spread | 761 Florida Atlantic -7 -117 For Game | 01/11/2024 | 07:00:00 PM (EST) | Pending

 

[one51rum]

PLAYS
Illinois-3 (BIG)
Over 155 N.Col/Mont
N.Col +7
Samford-4
OVER 128 La Tech
New Mex st +3 buy half
Delaware-6 -120 buy half
St Thomas ML
UTAH-7 bought a point like at 8 alot but i am doing it
FAU-7 (BIG)

Radford+6 small

little info since last friday i was 49-24 and 12-1 on Big plays last night 15-8 3-3 on big plays so since last friday including friday i am 64-32 15-4 on BIG plays
66.6666667%
64 is 66.6667% of 96

big plays
78.9473684%