At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey
Rain washed the races off the turf on Wednesday, but we still had a decent day and hopefully you played a big enough Pick 5 ticket to cash for $1,943.00 on a $1 ticket.
My second choice Broadway Bay ($5.70) got things going, followed by my third choice Deseret Valentine ($10.40). My top pick Amulay ($7.90) won the third leg and my second choices won the last two legs, Penella ($24.40) and Eastwood ($4.60).
Penella was the only longshot, and was actually 5-1 on the morning line and completely overlooked in the betting.
Entries for Saturday’s Arlington Million (G1) were drawn on Wednesday and the field of seven will be the smallest field in the 32-year history of the race.
While the field is surprisingly small, it looks as if it will still be an interesting betting race. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Magician is the 7-5 morning line favorite. However, the Aidan O’Brien trainee has won just one of five starts.
Defending champion Real Solution (5-2) is coming off a sharp effort winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park and Up With the Birds (6-1) was a good-looking winner of the Nijinsky (G2) at Woodbine. The race is a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
The weather for Thursday in New York is on the improve, although the area received a lot of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. I hope that it was not enough to knock us off the turf again today.
Here is today’s second race (the opener is a steeplechase event) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 2 Md $75,000 (1:00 ET)
1 Flapper Girl / 1a Sky Crew 3-1
2 Magsamelia 5-2
4 Sun and Moon 2-1
3 Vale Ridge 5-1
Analysis: Flapper Girl makes her debut for the Hushion barn that is 10% winners with first timers. Here at the Spa dating back three years the barn has hit with 3 of 10 firsters. The filly is by Corinthian (6% winners with debut runners) out of a Stormy Atlantic mare, her first foal to race, She debuts with lasix and sports a couple of good looking works on the morning tab. Entrymate Sky Crew ran second in three straight starts last fall and faded to finish eighth in her return race last out off a nine month layoff. She should move forward second off the bench.
Magsamelia set the early fractions and could not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish last out and now drops back in for a tag. The filly was the beaten chalk two and three back, both runner up finishes. She draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. She may be tough if she shakes loose early.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4
TRI: no play
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 OClm $40,000N2X (4:49 ET)
8 One Time Only 2-1
7 Run to Mama 12-1
5 Distorted Beauty 9-5
1 Lady Candidate 8-1
Analysis: One Time Only tracked the early pace while saving ground and grabbed the lead heading for home but was caught late, beaten a half-length for the top spot in a game effort going six furlongs on the grass at Belmont Park. The winner of the race was Invading Humor, who beat non-conditioned allowance foes in her next outing on Aug. 4. The fifth place finisher Uncle Southern also won next out, taking a state bred Alw-2 optional claimer here on July 31. The filly broke her maiden at today's one-mile distance and she passed her first allowance condition at Santa Anita going 6 1/2 downhill. The Proctor barn is 16% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Run to Mama makes her first start since December for the Kimmel barn that is just 1 for his last 16 with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. The filly has a couple of solid looking works on the morning tab and she beat state bred Alw-1 foes two back in her second start against winners over ground labeled as good and there likely will still be some give to the ground today. Worth tossing in the mix if she goes off near her 12-1 morning line.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 1,5,7,8
TRI: 7,8 / 1,5,7,8 / 1,2,5,7,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R1: #4 Schoodic 8-1
R5: #1 Bernstein Flambe 8-1
R6: #1 Dark Moon 10-1
R7: #1 Zafiro Azul 15-1
R9: #7 Run to Mama 12-1
Good luck today!
w-thumbs!^
