Thursday 8/11/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

Capital One Cup TODAY 19:45

Bristol R

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Cardiff

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SS1		2		29/20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BRISTOL R	RECENT FORM
HWADHWAWHWAL​ Most recent​	1 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 1	HDALHWALHDAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Cardiff have won only one of their last eight games

EXPERT VERDICT: Bristol Rovers host Cardiff in the League Cup and the newly promoted League One side can be a handful on home turf. Rovers won 15 of 23 matches on their way to promotion last term, while Championship outfit Cardiff won only five of 23 league away games and are hard to trust on their travels.

RECOMMENDATION: Bristol Rovers
3


REFEREE: Chris Kavanagh STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Sa 13Aug 12:30

Hull

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Leicester

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SS1		11/4	5/2	19/20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HULL	RECENT FORM
HWALHWAWHLNW​ Most recent​	1 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 2 - 1	HDHWADHWADNL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Leicester are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League games

EXPERT VERDICT: Leicester could find it difficult to maintain a strong title defence this term but they can get off to the perfect start by beating Hull. Sometimes it can be tricky to face a newly promoted team due to the enthusiasm of the oppositions fans and players, but a cloud of negativity has enveloped Hull since they triumphed in the Championship playoff final.

RECOMMENDATION: Leicester
4


REFEREE: Mike Dean STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Sa 13Aug 15:00

Burnley

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Swansea

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		11/8	11/5	2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BURNLEY	RECENT FORM
HWAWHDAWHWAW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 2 3 - 0	HWALALHWAWHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Burnley lost just twice at home last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Burnley are expected to struggle this season but can begin their top-flight campaign with a victory. The Clarets had a strong record at Turf Moor last term and look decent value against a Swansea team which picked up just 17 of their 47 points away from the Liberty Stadium in the 2015-16 season.

RECOMMENDATION: Burnley
3

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Sa 13Aug 15:00

Everton

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Tottenham

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		2	11/5	11/8	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT EVERTON	RECENT FORM
ALNLHWALALHW​ Most recent​	1 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0 2 - 1	HWAWHDADHLAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Everton won just three of their final 12 home league games last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Everton look likely to improve under the guidance of new manager Ronald Koeman but this is a tough opener. Friendly form can be taken with a pinch of salt, but Tottenham were hugely impressive in a 6-1 win over Inter and could hit the ground running after finishing last season in third spot.

RECOMMENDATION: Tottenham
2

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Sa 13Aug 15:00

Middlesbro

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Stoke

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		6/5	11/5	12/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MIDDLESBRO	RECENT FORM
HWAWADHDADHD​ Most recent​	2 - 1 0 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 2	ALHLALHDALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Boro conceded only eight goals at home last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Middlesbrough won more home games than any other Championship team last season and were especially secure at the back. Stoke couldn’t match that defensive performance on the road last term, letting in 31 goals on their travels – the most of any side to finish in the top ten - and could struggle at the Riverside.

RECOMMENDATION: Middlesbrough
2

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Sa 13Aug 15:00

C Palace

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West Brom

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		19/20	11/5	16/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT C PALACE	RECENT FORM
ALNWALHWALND*​ Most recent​	2 - 0 0 - 2 3 - 1 1 - 1	HLALADHLADHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: West Brom lost only seven of their 19 league away games last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Crystal Palace struggled during the second half of last season, winning just two of 21 matches in the Premier League after Christmas and the draw is the value. By contrast, West Brom were solid on the road in 2015-16 and have lost just two of their last six meetings with the Eagles.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golfers to Bet - Olympics

Tournament: Men’s 2016 Olympics
Date: Thursday, August 11th
Venue: Olympic Golf Course
Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Some of the world’s best golfers will represent their countries when they tee off in the Olympics on Thursday.

While there is a PGA event scheduled for this week, the best golfers will be in Rio de Janeiro and that is where the attention should really be this weekend.

Just like a normal tournament, the golfers will play 72 holes and the winner will earn a gold medal for their country.

The field will include 60 competitors and some of the most noteworthy guys are Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson and Patrick Reed. None of these guys have experience playing in something like this, as there hasn’t been a golf tournament in the Olympics since 1904.

With that being said, let’s now take a look at some of the better values to win come Sunday:

Golfers to Watch

Henrik Stenson (11/2) - Henrik Stenson has been on fire coming into this tournament and that is why he is the undisputed favorite heading into the weekend. Stenson won his first ever major at The Open Championship in the middle of July, shooting a 20-under in an epic duel with Phil Mickelson. Stenson then followed up that performance with a tied for seventh-place finish at the PGA Championship about two weeks ago. He shot an eight-under in that one and just might have won if he played a solid final round. Still, Stenson is really hitting the ball well right now and should be able to win this thing if he is making some putts. He’s a good value at 11/2 and is worth putting a few units on here.

Justin Rose (12/1) - Justin Rose has had a bit of a down year, as he was seventh in the OWGR a year ago and is now just 12th this season. Rose was also a threat to win every single tournament over the past few years, but that has not been the case this season. Still, Rose is a tremendous talent and there is certainly a possibility that he will return to form soon. This tournament is one that he could get it going in, as he will be entering with some confidence on Thursday. Rose shot a four-under at the PGA Championship and while that is not a great score, it was the first time he shot under-par since May. If he can build on that then he represents some tremendous value this weekend at 12/1.

Emiliano Grillo (25/1) - Grillo has had a pretty good season thus far and is coming off of a very impressive showing at the PGA Championship. Grillo shot a six-under at that tournament and would have had a chance to win it if it weren’t for a really poor third round. Grillo shot a 73 in that round and a 68 or better in each of the other three. If he can play a complete tournament then this just might be his breakthrough victory. He is very good with his irons and has good touch on the greens, but needs to stay sharp mentally. Putting a unit or two on him could end up paying off huge though.

Adilson da Silva (150/1) - Not many dark horse candidates stick out, but if there’s one guy worth putting a half-unit or quarter-unit on then it’s da Silva. He will be the only entrant for Brazil in this competition and he certainly will take pride in playing for his country. It’s really not at all likely that he comes away victorious, but taking a shot on the guy playing in front of his own fans might be the only dark horse worth considering.

Odds to win Men’s 2016 Olympics Gold Medal -
Henrik Stenson 11/2
Sergio Garcia 7/1
Justin Rose 12/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Bubba Watson 14/1
Patrick Reed 15/1
Martin Kaymer 16/1
Matt Kuchar 16/1
Danny Willett 23/1
Emiliano Grillo 25/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 25/1
Byeong Hun An 40/1
Padraig Harrington 40/1
Danny Lee 45/1
Thongchai Jaidee 45/1
Bernd Wiesberger 50/1
David Lingmerth 50/1
Jhonattan Vegas 50/1
Joost Luiten 50/1
Soren Kjeldsen 50/1
Thomas Pieters 50/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 60/1
Graham Delaet 65/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 65/1
David Hearn 70/1
Anirban Lahiri 75/1
Gregory Bourdy 80/1
Matteo Manassero 80/1
Mikko Ilonen 80/1
Scott Hend 80/1
Ryan Fox 85/1
Jeunghun Wang 90/1
Brandon Stone 100/1
Fabrizio Zanotti 100/1
Felipe Aguilar 100/1
Jaco Van Zyl 100/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 100/1
Alex Cejka 125/1
Ashun Wu 125/1
C.T. Pan 125/1
Julien Quesne 125/1
Ricardo Gouveia 125/1
Yuta Ikeda 125/1
Fabian Gomez 130/1
Adilson Da Silva 150/1
Marcus Fraser 150/1
Haotong Li 175/1
Nino Bertasio 175/1
Espen Kofstad 200/1
Seamus Power 200/1
Miguel Tabuena 220/1
Jose Filipe Lima 225/1
Gavin Green 250/1
Lin Wen Tang 250/1
Roope Kakko 250/1
Shingo Katayama 250/1
Siddikur Rahman 250/1
Ssp Chawrasia 250/1
Danny Chia 300/1
Rodolfo Cazaubon 300/1

Odds Subject to Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Olympic golf betting preview and odds: Stenson and Garcia headline depleted field
By MATT FARGO

The last time the Olympics had golf as an event was back in 1904 at the St. Louis Games but golf is back at the Rio games with mixed reviews. At the last Olympic golf event, George Lyon of Canada won the Gold Medal and has been the reigning Olympic champion for 112 years but that will soon change when 60 players from across the world tee it up on August 11th.

The golf format for the Rio Olympics is simple as it is similar to any other golf tournament - players will play four rounds of stroke play to decide the three medal winners. There is no cut after 36 holes and in the case of a tie at any of the Gold, Silver or Bronze levels, a three-hole playoff will be held. Additionally, there is no team event since some nations have multiple players and others have just one.

The course is a brand new layout that was completed less than a year ago. Reserva de Marapendi is a par 71, 7,350-yard track designed by Gil Hanse and Amy Alcott built out of a vast nature preserve near the Barra da Tijuca neighborhood. It is located three miles from the Olympic Village and all participants will be on an even playing field since no one has seen the course prior to practice leading up to the event.

The field is obviously a strong one but not as strong as many had hoped. Of the top ten players in the world, only five are competing in Rio with the top four players, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy all sitting out as well at No. 8 Adam Scott. The United States leads the way with four participants with 23 other nations having two players compete.

A look at the full field and odds for winning Gold:

Henrik Stenson (SWE) 5/1 Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR) 80/1
Sergio Garcia (ESP) 6/1 Cheng-Tsung Pan (TPE) 80/1
Justin Rose (GBR) 12/1 Mikko Ilonen (FIN) 80/1
Martin Kaymer (GER) 14/1 Gregory Bourdy (FRA) 80/1
Rickie Fowler (USA) 14/1 Thorbjorn Olesen (DEN) 80/1
Matt Kuchar (USA) 14/1 Scott Hend (AUS) 80/1
Bubba Watson (USA) 14/1 Adilson Da Silva (BRA) 100/1
Patrick Reed (USA) 16/1 Jaco Van Zyl (RSA) 100/1
Danny Willett (GBR) 20/1 Jeung-Hun Wang (KOR) 100/1
Emiliano Grillo (ARG) 25/1 Ricardo Gouveia (POR) 125/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello (ESP) 25/1 Julien Quesne (FRA) 125/1
Graham Delaet (CAN) 40/1 Fabian Gomez (ARG) 125/1
Thomas Pieters (BEL) 40/1 Brandon Stone (RSA) 125/1
Byeong-Hun An (KOR) 40/1 Yuta Ikeda (JPN) 150/1
Nicolas Colsaerts (BEL) 50/1 Jose-Filipe Lima (POR) 150/1
Bernd Wiesberger (AUT) 50/1 Alex Cejka (GER) 150/1
David Hearn (CAN) 50/1 Marcus Fraser (AUS) 150/1
Soren Kjeldsen (DEN) 50/1 Gavin Green (MAS) 150/1
Thongchai Jaidee (THA) 50/1 Nino Bertasio (ITA) 150/1
David Lingmerth (SWE) 50/1 Espen Kofstad (NOR) 150/1
Danny Lee (NZL) 50/1 Seamus Power (IRL) 175/1
Jhonattan Vegas (COL) 66/1 Miguel Tabuena (PHI) 200/1
Joost Luiten (NED) 66/1 Shingo Katayama (JPN) 200/1
Anirban Lahiri (IND) 66/1 Siddikur Rahman (BAN) 200/1
Padraig Harrington (IRL) 66/1 SSP Chawrasia (IND) 200/1
Matteo Manassero (ITA) 66/1 Hao Tong Li (CHN) 200/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (THA) 66/1 Rudolfo Cazaubon (MEX) 250/1
Felipe Aguilar (CHI) 70/1 Wen Tang Lin (TPE) 250/1
Ryan Fox (NZL) 80/1 Roope Kakko (FIN) 250/1
Ashun Wu (CHN) 80/1 Danny Chia (MAS) 250/1

Let’s take a look at the main contenders and a few longshots.

Henrik Stenson (SWE) 5/1

Stenson is the highest ranked player in the world that is competing, at No. 5, thanks to his first Major win at the Open Championship just a few weeks ago. He has six top tens in eight cuts made on the PGA Tour while also winning the BMW International Open on the European Tour. He is ranked second in the Race to Dubai.

Sergio Garcia (ESP) 6/1

Garcia has never won a Major so winning Olympic Gold would be pretty ironic. He won at the AT&T Byron Nelson and posted three straight tops fives heading into the PGA Championship. He also posted a T5 at the BMW International Open as well as a solo third at the Real Club Valderrama Open de España.

Justin Rose (GBR) 12/1

Rose started the season red hot with five top 20s in his first six official events. He has been slowed by a back injury but looks to be back in fine health following his T22 at the Open Championship. He possesses 19 professional wins including one Major after winning the U.S. Open in 2013.

Martin Kaymer (GER) 14/1

Kaymer is another Major winner as he has notched two, the 2010 PGA Championship and most recent, the 2014 U.S. Open. He spends his time on the European Tour where he has four top tens this season including a pair of T5 finishes at the 100th Open de France and the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open.

Rickie Fowler (USA) 14/1

It has been a tough year for Fowler who came in with great expectations. He missed the cut at the Masters and the U.S. Open and finished T46 at the Open Championship. He does have seven top tens but only two since early April. His win at the PLAYERS last season was his breakthrough but he has not been able to capitalize from it.

Matt Kuchar (USA) 14/1

Kuchar has been one of the most consistent golfers around as since 2010, he has 64 top tens which includes five wins, seven runner-ups and nine third place finishes. He has not won since 2014, however, and all of those top tens do not matter in this event. Still, he is playing his best golf of the season heading into the Olympics.

Bubba Watson (USA) 14/1

Watson is the second highest ranked golfer in the field at No. 6 but is low in the odds due to some recent struggles. He has 12 professional wins including a pair of Masters titles in 2012 and 2014 and while he does have a win this season, it came back in February. He has just one top 25 in his last seven starts.

Patrick Reed (USA) 16/1

Reed rounds out the American squad and his fiery play at the Ryder Cup proves he could be a contender to win Gold. He has not won this season but has nine top tens including a pair of runner-ups. Additionally, he had a T10 at the Scottish Open prior to the Open Championship where he placed T12.

Danny Willett (GBR) 20/1

Willet was the first Major winner of the season as he brought home his first Major at the Masters. He has not done much since then however as he placed down low in the other two Majors and has not finished better than a T37 on either tour since a solo third at the BMW PGA Championship in England.

Emiliano Grillo (ARG) 25/1

Grillo is a rookie on the PGA Tour but made a name for himself with a playoff loss at the Puerto Rico Open last season. He bettered that this year with a victory at the Frys.com Open back in October and while he has not contended since then, he has only one missed cut in his last 14 starts so he remains very consistent.

Rafa Cabrera Bello (ESP) 25/1

Cabrera Bello made a monster run at the Dell Match Play where he finished third and followed that up with a solo fourth at the Shell Houston Open. He made the cut in all three Majors highlighted by a T17 at the Masters and most recent, posted a solo fourth at the 100th Open de France on the European Tour.

Graham DeLaet (CAN) 40/1

DeLaet has four professional wins but three of those were on the Canadian Tour and another on the Sunshine Tour. He has not been able to win on the PGA Tour when it counts as he has three runner-up finishes as well as three third place finishes. With a watered down field, he may be worth a look at this price.

Thomas Pieters (BEL) 40/1

Pieters is not a household name but he is a very solid player on the European Tour since turning pro in 2013. He won twice last year in back-to-back starts at the D+D REAL Czech Masters and the KLM Open but he has not been able to break through with a field of this status and depth.

Byeong-Hun An (KOR) 40/1

An won his first tournament on the European Tour last season at the BMW PGA Championship in a loaded field and he came close on the PGA Tour this year with a playoff loss at the Zurich Classic to Brain Stuard. In August 2009, he became the youngest-ever winner of the U.S. Amateur.


Now for a couple of longshot options.

Anirban Lahiri (IND) 66/1

Lahiri has won all over the world as he has collected 18 professional titles. His first full year on the PGA Tour has not been great but he has missed only four cuts in 20 events and sits 102nd in the FedEx Cup Standings. He won twice on the European Tour last season while posting three additional top seven finishes.

Thorbjorn Olesen (DEN) 80/1

Olesen has not done much in July but he was having a solid season on the European Tour prior to that with a pair of runner-ups as well as three other top tens. He has 13 top three finishes in six full years and that includes three victories, most notable the 2015 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in a loaded field.

Fabian Gomez (ARG) 125/1

Not many will remember but Gomez kicked off the 2016 portion of the season with a win at the Sony Open in Hawaii in a playoff over Brandt Snedeker.
Additionally, he won in 2015 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic so he certainly knows how to win and at these odds, he is worthy of a shot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

10 Players to Watch: Men's Olympic Tournament

The Sports Xchange's 10 Players to Watch: Men's Olympic Tournament

1. Henrik Stenson, Sweden -- Only four weeks after becoming the first Swedish man to capture a major title when he won the Open Championship at Royal Troon, Stenson finds himself as the favorite in the first Olympic golf competition since 1904 in St. Louis. The highest-ranked player in the World Golf Ranking in the field at No. 5, he also won the BMW International Open on the European Tour a few weeks earlier and is enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career at the age of 40. In addition to running his career victory total to 19, the big Swede finished second in the Shell Houston Open, tied for third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, tied for fourth in the
Nordea Masters and tied for seventh in the PGA Championship.

2. Bubba Watson, United States -- Since Watson has all the shots, his game should play well on any course out there, but sometimes he seems to talk himself into being negative about what he sees in front of him. However, if he can take an instant liking to the Olympic Golf Course designed by Gil Hanse, he could we wearing the gold medal on Sunday. Watson, ranked No. 6 in the world and also No. 6 in the FedEx Cup standings, needs to play back to his form of early this season, when he claimed his ninth PGA Tour victory by winning the Northern Trust Open for the second time in three years and followed that up in his next start by finishing second, one stroke behind Adam Scott of Australia in the WGC-Cadillac Championship.

3. Sergio Garcia, Spain -- While Garcia has won 29 times in his career, he is considered by some to be an underachiever because he has never won a major. However, he has been brilliant while representing Spain, particularly in the Ryder Cup. Wearing his national colors in Rio could bring out the best in his game, which was very sharp until he missed the cut in his last start at the PGA Championship. Garcia, No. 11 in the world, beat Brooks Koepka in a playoff to win the AT&T Byron Nelson in May and then tied for fifth in both the U.S. Open at Oakmont and the Open Championship at Royal Troon. Also this season, he finished second in the Honda Classic, was third in the Spanish Open and tied for fifth in the BMW International Open.

4. Justin Rose, Great Britain -- The Brits have a strong 1-2 punch in the Olympics with Rose, 12th in the world, and Masters champion Danny Willett, who is No. 9. Still looking for his first PGA Tour victory this season after claiming at least one in each of the previous six years, Rose started 2015-16 in good form but has not played as well lately. The 2013 U.S. Open champion tied for sixth in both the Frys.com Open and the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, tied for ninth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and tied for 10th in the Masters. However, he has finished in the top 10 only once in his last nine starts, solo third in the Wells Fargo Championship. Rose has played well when representing his country in the Ryder Cup and other team events.

5. Rickie Fowler, United States -- After winning the Players Championship, the Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open and the Deutsche Bank Championship last season, Fowler hasn't played as well this year, but a medal in the Olympics would change all that. He started the year on a good run by tying for fifth in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, losing in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama of Japan at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, tying for sixth in the Honda Classic and tying for eighth in the WGC-Cadillac Championship. However, he has only three top-10s since, including a tie for 10th in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Fowler has shown he can win on foreign soil, capturing the 2011 Korean Open, the 2015 Scottish Open and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship earlier this year.

6. Danny Willett, Great Britain -- The 2016 Masters champion might not have the name recognition of some of the other players, but he is no fluke. Ranked No. 9, he has won four times around the world in the last three years, also claiming titles in the 2014 Nedbank Challenge in South Africa, the 2015 European Masters in Switzerland and the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year. Willett, who joined the PGA Tour after winning at Augusta National in April, leads the European Tour's Race to Dubai standings. In addition to his two victories this year, he tied for fourth in the Nedbank Challenge, tied for third in the WGC-Cadillac Championship and finished solo third in the BMW PGA Championship.

7. Martin Kaymer, Germany -- Although Kaymer, a two-time major champion, does not have a victory since claiming the 22nd of his career in 2014, he has shown in recent months that his game is on the way back. He tied for sixth in the Spanish Open, tied for fifth in the Irish Open, tied for seventh in the BMW PGA Championship and tied for fifth in the French Open on the European Tour. Then, in his last start, Kaymer tied for seventh in the PGA Championship at Baltusrol. He captured the 2010 PGA Championship in a playoff over Bubba Watson at Whistling Straits and the 2014 U.S. Open by eight strokes at Pinehurst No. 2, so perhaps being back on the world stage in Rio de Janeiro might again bring out his best stuff.

8. Patrick Reed, United States -- Even before Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth decided not to play in the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro because of fears brought on by the Zika virus, Reed said he would play for the Red, White and Blue any time he is asked. He landed the final spot on the U.S. team and might wind up being a medal contender based on his strong play when he played for the American teams in the 2014 Ryder Cup and the 2015 Presidents Cup. Reed claimed four victories in his first three seasons on the PGA Tour, and even though he has not found the winner's circle this year, he finished second in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and the Valero Texas Open among his nine results in the top 10.

9. Matt Kuchar, United States -- Kuchar is the second player who made the U.S. team because Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth decided not to go to Rio, and he has plenty of experience playing for the American side. He has made three appearances each in the Ryder Cup and the Presidents Cup, and when the other top Americans didn't want to make the trip to China for the 2011 World Cup, he took Gary Woodland with him and they claimed the title for the United States. Kuchar took Kevin Streelman with him two years later, and they finished second behind Australia. Kuchar claimed the most recent of his seven PGA Tour victories in the 2014 RBC Heritage, but he has nine top-10 finishes this season, including third-place results in the Players Championship, the AT&T Byron Nelson and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

10. Jhonattan Vegas, Venezuela -- Vegas leads the South American Olympic contingent along with Emiliano Grillo and Fabian Gomez of Argentina, plus 44-year-old home favorite Adilson da Silva of Brazil. Vegas claimed his second PGA Tour victory last month at the RBC Canadian Open, ending a five-year drought going back to the 2011 Bob Hope Classic. Much was expected when he earned that first victory in a playoff over Bill Haas and Gary Woodland to become the first Venezuelan to win on the PGA Tour, but only now does Vegas seem to be ready to fulfill that potential. He has finished in the top five on four occasions this season, including his victory in Canada, and he is coming off a tie for 22nd in the PGA Championship at Baltusrol.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour Picks: John Deere Classic Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Last week was about the newsiest on the PGA Tour in a long time. First, you had Nike dropping the bombshell that it would be leaving the golf equipment business but still make apparel. So what does that mean for guys like Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, who are under contract? Obviously they can't be obligated to play old Nike clubs and balls.

And then on Sunday at the Travelers Championship, Jim Furyk shot an amazing and record 58 but didn't even win the tournament. No other Tour player had ever shot better than 59 in a round of competition, although a Web.com Tour guy (Stephen Jaeger) recently also had a 58. Furyk, who plays Callaway clubs, if that's important for you to know, was one of only six players to have previously carded a 59 on the PGA Tour. He hit every single green in regulation Sunday at TPC River Highlands outside Hartford. But it was still only good for T5 at 11-under 269 overall on the par-70 course. Furyk entered Sunday in 70th place. Furyk made the turn in 8-under 27, one shot shy of Corey Pavin's Tour-record 26 at the 2006 U.S. Bank Championship. I kid you not, Furyk could have shot 56 as he missed two very makeable birdie putts on the back nine.

Your winner was Scotland's Russell Knox at 14-under 266, never shooting worse than 68, which was his final-round score. He drained a 12-foot par putt on the 72nd hole to beat out Jerry Kelly for his second career Tour win. He also won the WGC-HSBC Champions overseas earlier this season. Knox, the fifth player with multiple wins this season, now has a pretty good chance of making the Great Britain & Ireland Ryder Cup team. Kelly, who attended the University of Hartford, at least assured himself of a spot in the FedEx Cup playoff-opening Barclays with his runner-up, moving from No. 138 in the points to 63rd.

I didn't even touch on Knox last week. I liked two-time winner Bubba Watson, who was the betting favorite. He finished T25. Also missed on Top 10s for Matt Kuchar and Ryan Moore. Hit a few head-to-head props, but that was about it.

So there are two events this week, the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill., and the men's golf tournament at the Rio Olympics. I'll be honest in that I'm probably not informed enough to make an educated guess on who wins gold in Rio. The course is brand new and obviously so is golf back in the Olympics, so I have little to go on. Plus several big names are skipping it. I think golf officials made a mistake making it a regular 72-hole regular event. It needs to be something unique, maybe a match play/stroke play combo or team event or something. Sweden's Henrik Stenson is the +500 favorite and should be with the way he's playing. Rickie Fowler has the shortest odds of any American at +1400.

The defending champion of the John Deere is Jordan Spieth. He beat Tom Gillis (who?) in two playoff holes to notch his second win at TPC Deere Run. They both finished 72 holes at 20-under 264. Spieth had started Sunday with a two-shot lead, but Gillis shot a 7-under 64 in the final round. Spieth also won the event in 2013 for his first PGA Tour victory. Spieth chose to skip the Olympics but thought it would look bad if he did that -- i.e. pass on playing for free for your country instead for a money grab -- and then played this tournament. And he's probably right. So he's not.

Thus, it's one of the weakest fields of the year with Zach Johnson, who is from that Quad Cities area (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), the highest-ranked player at No. 22 in the world. This is the first time since 2003 that this tournament is not the week before the British Open. It will go back to that spot on the schedule in 2017. By the way, one of those 59s was shot here by Paul Goydos in 2010.

Golf Odds: John Deere Classic Favorites

Johnson is the +650 favorite. He won here in 2012 at 20-under, beating Troy Matteson in a playoff. Johnson definitely likes this course and is on the board for this tournament. He was third here last year and hasn't finished worse than third at the JDC since 2010 and he plays every year. Johnson was T47 last week.

Jon Rahm and Steve Stricker are each +1200. I honestly never heard of Rahm, a Spaniard, until a few weeks ago when he was a co-runner-up at the Canadian Open. His only other official pro tournament was the Quicken Loans National in June, and he was T3 there. He's on special temporary status and was 25th last week. Stricker won this tournament three straight years starting in 2009. That's the last time any player won any tournament three years in a row. Stricker was 42nd in his last tournament, the PGA Championship. He was 35th here in 2015.

Kevin Na (+2000), Daniel Summerhays and Moore (both +2200) round out the favorites. Na has played here once and was 13th in 2014. Summerhays was eighth last year and 11th last week. Moore has two Top 10s here this decade.

Golf Odds: John Deere Classic Picks

For a Top 10, I like Johnson (-175), Scott Brown (+600), who has two Top 10s here since 2012 and Matt Jones (+500), who has three Top 7s in the JDC since 2009. Head-to-head, go with Johnson (-200) over Rahm (+160), Moore (-115) over Summerhays (-115), Brian Harman (-115), the 2014 champion, over Robert Streb (-115), Patrick Rodgers (-115) over Kelly (-115), and Jones (-115) over Hudson Swafford (-115). Johnson is pretty clearly the best player in the field and he's right at home on this course, so he's the pick.

I don't want to totally ignore the Olympics so I'll go with Justin Rose at +1000 to win gold. Take Patrick Reed at +250 as top American finisher.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 7
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 7
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 7
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 7
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 7
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 7

Team Betting Notes

-- Ottawa (4-2-1) upended Edmonton (2-4) in a rematch of the 103rd Grey Cup last November, avenging a 26-20 loss in Winnipeg. Despite the victory the RedBlacks are 0-3 ATS over the past three games after starting out 3-1 ATS in the first four contests.

-- The RedBlacks have been impressive at the betting window when it comes to totals. The 'under' is 4-1-1 over the past six games since an 'over' result in Week 1 against the Esks.

-- Saskatchewan (1-5) laid another egg, as they have followed up their July 22 win against the RedBlacks with two lopsided losses, averaging just 9.0 points per game (PPG) while allowing 38.0 PPG. They're not 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season.

-- It was another loss and non-cover for Montreal (2-4), as they have now scored 18 or fewer points in four of their six games. As such the 'under' is 4-2 in their six games this season. The Alouettes have failed to cover in four of their past five games, too.

-- The BC Lions (4-2) rebounded after last weekend's disappointing loss in Calgary, humbling the Alouettes 38-18 in Montreal. The Lions improved to 5-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road. They are also averaging 39.7 PPG over the past three, all 'over' results, after a 3-0 'under' run.

-- Winnipeg (3-4) continued their solid play with an impressive 37-11 win over Hamilton (3-3). After starting out 1-3-1 ATS in their first five games, the Bombers have covered in back-to-back affairs for the first time since a four-game cover streak from Sept. 25-Oct. 16, 2015.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four of the past five games for the Ti-Cats. In games Hamilton has been favored, the 'under' is 4-0. When they're an underdog, the 'over' is 2-0.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 8
By David Schwab

Week 7 in the CFL started things off with a big upset when Winnipeg hammered Hamilton 37-11 as a two-point home underdog. In the first of two games on Thursday night, British Columbia went on the road to Montreal and came away with a 38-18 victory as a three-point favorite.

In the backend of that double-header, Calgary cruised past Saskatchewan 35-15 as a 12 ½-point home favorite and the week’s action came to an end on Saturday when Ottawa outlasted Edmonton 23-20 but failed to cover as a 4 ½-point favorite at home.

Thursday, Aug. 11

Montreal Alouettes (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -8
Total: 52

Game Overview

Montreal’s offense returned to the form that led to an average of just 14.8 points through its first four games after exploding for 41 points in a Week 6 victory against Saskatchewan. It managed to score just eight points in the second half of last week’s loss to BC while getting shutout in the fourth quarter. The Alouettes only bright spot in that game was wide receiver Duron Carter with seven receptions for 115 yards.

The Eskimos have now matched last season’s loss total at four with last week’s third SU loss in a row. It was the first time they covered ATS in their last three games and the total has now stayed UNDER in three of their last four contests. This is behind an offense that is averaging 23.5 points during this same stretch. Mike Reilly still leads the CFL in total passing yards with 2,181, but he was held to 255 yards while completing just 61 percent of his 41 attempts against the RedBlacks.

Betting Trends

Edmonton has won the last four meetings both straight-up and against the spread with the total going OVER in three of the four games. The total in this series has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in eight of the last nine meetings.

Friday, Aug. 12

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -3 ½
Total: 49 ½

Game Overview

Just when you thought the Blue Bombers were one of the worst teams in the CFL, they turn around and shock you with a couple of unexpected wins. Much of the credit for last Wednesday’s upset has to go to the continued high level of play from quarterback Matt Nichols. He ended that game with just 246 yards passing and he tossed two touchdowns as part of a 74.2 completion percentage. This followed a 26-for-33 effort the week before against Edmonton for 304 yards and one touchdown pass.

Toronto is right in the thick of the East Division title race coming off last week’s bye. The Argonauts have won three of their last four games both straight-up and against the spread and they had shown a good balance between the pass and the run with Ricky Ray at quarterback and Brandon Whitaker running the ball. Ray will be sidelined until early September with a knee injury and in his place Logan Kilgore did an adequate job filling the void in a Week 6 win against Ottawa.

Betting Trends

Toronto has won four of its last five games against the Blue Bombers both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in both meetings last season after going OVER in five of the previous six games between the two.

Saturday, Aug. 13

Calgary Stampeders (4-1-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5 ½
Total: 54

Game Overview

The Stampeders are probably the most balanced team in the CFL heading into Week 8 with an offense that is averaging 32 points a game complementing a defense that has allowed an average of 23.7 points to their opponents. In the first game against Saskatchewan, Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell put the ball up 37 times and he completed 25 passes for 312 yards and a score. Jerome Messam gained another 109 yards and scored a touchdown on 17 rushing attempts.

Saskatchewan remained competitive in Game 1 of this home-and-home series into the fourth quarter before giving up 16 unanswered points while getting shutout in the final 15 minutes of play. Darian Durant got the start at quarterback after missing some time with an ankle injury and he was somewhat effective with 247 yards passing and one touchdown throw. The Roughriders’ ground game only accounted for 55 total yards on 11 rushing attempts.

Betting Trends

With last week’s win in the front-end of this home-and-home series, Calgary has won the last five meetings SU while going 4-1 ATS. The total stayed UNDER 55 ½ points in that game after it had gone OVER in the previous four meetings.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) Point-spread: BC -3 Total: 55 ½

Game Overview

The Tiger-Cats have now lost three games this season closing as favorites and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their first six games overall. The 11 points scored against Winnipeg was the first time they failed to score at least 24 points over their past four contests and their defense has been torched for a total 68 points in the last two games. Hamilton trailed the Blue Bombers 34-0 at the half as a result of four sloppy turnovers. The good news is that quarterback Zach Collaros has been upgraded to probable for this week’s game, but there is no word on whether he will start.

BC comes into this interdivision tilt just a half game in back of Calgary in the West Division race. The Lions have now scored at least 38 points in each of their last three games and on the year they are putting up an average of 30.2 points a game. Last week against Montreal, Jonathon Jennings completed an amazing 84.4 percent of his 32 passing attempts for 331 yards and a score. He was able to complete at least two passes to seven different players.

Betting Trends

The Lions won the first meeting this season 28-3 on July 1 as 5 ½-point road underdogs. It was the first time the road team won in the last seven meetings and the total stayed UNDER in that game after going OVER in five of the previous six games between the two.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 8 CFL games

Montreal (2-4) @ Edmonton (2-4)– Edmonton lost its last three games, all by 7 or less points; all six of their games this year were decided by 8 or less. Eskimos won last four series games, sweeping Montreal last year, 15-12/40-22. Als lost by 17-18 in last two visits here. Alouettes lost four of last five games, with all four losses by 13+ points; they split two road games, losing 30-17 (+4.5) at Toronto after winning at Winnipeg in season opener. Under is 4-2 in Montreal games, 3-1 in last four Eskimo games.

Winnipeg (3-4) @ Toronto (4-2)– Argonauts won six of last seven series games; Winnipeg lost last three visits here, by 15-17-10 points. Bombers won last two games (scoring 33.5 ppg) after their 1-4 start; under is 4-0-1 in last five Winnipeg games. Bombers won two of three on road, losing at Calgary by 14. Toronto won four of last five games (under 4-1); they’re 4-0 when scoring more than 20 points, 0-2 if they score 20 or less. Over is 8-5 in last thirteen series games.

Calgary (4-1) @ Saskatchewan (1-5)– Roughriders were outscored 76-18 in losing last two games; they lost 35-15 (+10) in Calgary LW, Stampeders had 132 rushing yards in game that was only 16-12 at the half. Calgary won last five series games, scring 31+ points in all five; they won by 7-3 in last couple of trips to Regina. Under is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Stamps scored 37.3 ppg in winning their last three games; they’re 1-1-1 on road, tying Lions in Vancouver, losing in Ottawa.

Hamilton (3-3) @ British Columbia (4-2)– Lions (+5.5) won 28-3 in Hamilton July 6, snapping home series win streak at six; Hamilton lost its last four visits here, by 3-3-7-27 points. Five of last seven in series went over total. TiCats are on road for 4th game in row, with bye mixed in there; they’re 3-1 on road, losing in Winnipeg LW- road team won six of their seven games SU. Lions are home for first time in a month; they’re 1-1 at home. BC scored 39.7 ppg in winning two of last three games.

— Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos (-7, 51)
— Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Toronto Argonauts (-4, 49.5)
— Calgary Stampeders (-6, 54) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders
— Hamilton Tiger Cats @ British Columbia Lions (-2.5, 54.5)
— Underdogs*18-7 Home 7-20-1 vs spread Over: 10-16-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL*|*HAMILTON*at*BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 off 1 or more straight overs, good offensive team - scoring 29 or more points/game
90-43*since 1997.**(*67.7%*|*42.7 units*)
2-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*2.0 units*)

CFL*|*WINNIPEG*at*TORONTO
Play On - Home favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (TORONTO) with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 61% or worse, after allowing 6.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game
30-0*over the last 5 seasons.**(*100.0%*|*0.0 units*)
1-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*0.0 units*)

CFL*|*CALGARY*at*SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (SASKATCHEWAN) with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 32 or more points/game, after allowing 34 points or more in 2 straight games
29-6*since 1997.**(*82.9%*|*22.4 units*)
1-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*1.0 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL: Dinero Talks Preseason Betting

No Hall of Fame Game stung pockets

There were still a handful of quality viewing options available on Sunday night when the NFL embarrassingly had to call off its annual Hall of Fame game.

The Olympics offered up gymnastics, an exciting Colombia-Japan men’s soccer clash and that ending of Croatia’s thrilling upset of Spain where Dario Saric swatted away a Pau Gasol hook as time expired. Major league baseball offered up two of its most revered franchises, the Dodgers and Red Sox, playing a rare interleague series as its Sunday night showcase.

Still, not seeing our first NFL game was undoubtedly a buzz kill. Reaction on social media didn’t quite reach outrage levels, but there was certainly disappointment that we didn’t get to see quarterback Andrew Luck for even a snap. The Packers had already ruled out QBs Aaron Rodgers and backup Brett Hundley, so undrafted rookies Joe Callahan and Marquise Williams were going to handle the workload.

Coaching often key to preseason success

No, we didn’t really miss much. However, the first opportunity to cash an NFL ticket was wasted, especially if you got in on fading Green Bay before the line moved to Indianapolis -3 at many spots. The combination of Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris was going to offer the Colts a major edge in experience alone, and you have to take any advantage you can get when it comes to betting pro football’s preseason.

There’s certainly a level of tooting my own horn to the following, but it’s just to establish credibility. Over the past six NFL preseasons, the below are my ATS records:

2010: 29-24-2 (54.7 +227)

2011: 44-35 (55.7 +550)

2012: 35-13-1 (72.9 +1992)

2013: 26-25 (51.0 -196)

2014: 27-15 (64.3 +950)

2015: 31-13-1 (70.5 +1672)

Between sides and totals, there are always going to be opportunities to take advantage of legwork that needs to be done to consistently turn a profit in the preseason.

Personnel comes first and foremost. Who is playing? How long are they going to go? Because coaches are badgered by media during these dog days of summer on a daily basis and they often have little concrete to say, most will at least be forthcoming with that information.

There are some who simply put no effort into wanting to win these games and others who seem to relish in seeing their team be successful when they’re out there between the lines and there’s someone operating a scoreboard.

Seattle’s Pete Carroll had a ridiculous nine-game winning streak that stretched from the final game of the 2011 preseason into the 2014 opener. Carroll’s Seahawks then won the next two games by a combined margin of 75-20 to make it 11-for-12. Obviously, Seattle has been one of the NFL’s best franchises throughout his tenure, but a lot of its preseason dominance can simply be tied to a desire to be their best at all times while others are content going through the motions.

Chip Kelly’s Eagles put on a show last preseason, outscoring their first three opponents by 115-53 count as they looked for a quarterback and attempted to give all the combatants, Tim Tebow included, equal opportunities to play at a faster tempo. It will be interesting to see how Kelly handles things in his first preseason with the 49ers, but there’s a QB controversy there too.

Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer won all four of his preseason contests in his first year as head coach and then went 4-0 last year before losing a fifth preseason contest the Vikings were only playing due to their appearance in the Hall of Fame game. Even though he’s downplayed the Vikes success in these exhibitions, it’s clear that how we and his staff coach them produces results.

New England's Bill Belichick has never put much emphasis on what transpires in August, but saw Deflategate interfere with his handling of Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo affect last year. This year will yield more of the same now that it’s certain that Brady will be unavailable for the regular season’s first four games, which means Belichick will have to walk the line of preparing Garoppolo to start while also making sure he keeps him upright until the lights come on.

Kansas City's Andy Reid has never been big on preseason results, but fellow QB gurus turned head coaches like Sean Payton and Gary Kubiak seem to have more success than most. It’s not a quarterback thing, either. Jason Garrett has had little success with the Cowboys this time of year, while Ken Whisenhunt, now offensive coordinator in San Diego, mostly struggled in August while with Tennessee and Arizona.

Although we’ve most talked coaches, that’s not the end-all, be-all with what you need to know to take advantage of a time where spreads aren’t bloated and uncertainly prevails due to playing time concerns involved with giving everyone a fair look.

There’s definitely a level of nuance to it, but anyone who tells you that you can’t consistently bank on the NFL preseason because it’s too difficult to predict simply doesn’t know where to look. It’s too bad that overlooking the field conditions in Canton until it was too late to prevent the Hall of Fame game’s cancellation kept us from one additional chance to capitalize.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Practice Season'

The first full week of NFL preseason football begins on Thursday, August 11 with six games on tap, followed by ten more over the next three days. Many sports bettors prefer a 'wait and see' attitude at this time of the year because most teams are content to limit activity of starters' while handing most duties to raw rookies making it tough identifying squads that will succeed during tune-up clashes.

However, there are still plenty of good wagering opportunities for those who wish to participate in preseason betting. Studying past histories of teams during August and certain coaches can glean wagering edges. A coach like Sean Payton instills a winning attitude during practice season which is why Saints have produce a solid 20-10 ATS stretch in August.

A guy like Andy Reid will spend more energy evaluating personnel rather than worry about improving Chiefs 10-19 SU, 7-19-3 ATS skid in warm-ups. Note: Reid's teams are 2-8-2 ATS in his last twelve HOF/WK1 preseason games with Kansas City and Philadelphia.

Interesting betting nugget. Super Bowl runner ups are not always the best bets the first week of August. Runner ups have a cash draining 1-7 ATS mark L8 years and 2-8 ATS record last ten in WK1 of preseason.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preseason Coaching Records
By Marc Lawrence

If you’re looking to make a quick score before the start of the 2016 NFL season then look no further than the coaches and their preseason tendencies.

It appears coaches like Jason Garrett, Hue Jackson and Chuck Pagano don’t appear to put much stock in exhibition play, as evidenced by their collective 13-28 SU and 13-27-1 collective ATS career marks during the preseason.

The same, however, cannot be said for Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh and Mike Zimmer who together are 53-29 SU and 53-28-1 ATS throughout the preseason.

Then there’s Mike McCarthy and Bill O’Brien, the epitomes of consistency throughout their NFL career during the preseason, sporting 20-20 and 4-4 SU, and 20-20 ATS and 4-4 ATS marks, respectively.

And if Totals (O/U) are your cup of tea, take a look at the defensive priorities of Bill O’Brien and Gus Bradley who have played 4-16 to the UNDER combined in their preseason games.

While on the other side of the coin Chip Kelly and Gary Kubiak seem more interested in fine tuning their offenses, going 33-13-2 OVER the total collectively in their exhibition games.

Please Note: O/U records are since 1999. O/U records with an asterisk (*) represent the coaches’ totals performance in preseason games since 1999 only.

All other results are as an NFL head coach throughout his career.

With that we present another PLAYBOOK exclusive, the 2016 NFL Preseason Coaches records.

Enjoy…

Preseason Records (1999-2015)
Team-Coach SU ATS O/U
Arizona – Bruce Arians 6-6 7-4-1 6-6
Atlanta – Dan Quinn 2-2 2-2 3-1
Baltimore - John Harbaugh 20-12 19-13 17-15
Buffalo – Rex Ryan 13-15 13-15 19-9
Carolina - Ron Rivera 11-9 11-9 10-10
Chicago – John Fox 31-25 27-28-1 27-28-1
Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis 28-25 28-24-1 26-27
Cleveland – Hue Jackson 0-4 0-4 2-2
Dallas - Jason Garrett 8-13 6-14-1 8-12-1
Denver – Gary Kubiak 22-14 22-12-2 23-11-2
Detroit - Jim Caldwell 8-12 10-1 9-11
Green Bay - Mike McCarthy 20-20 20-20 26-14
Houston – Bill O’Brien 4-4 4-4 1-7
Indianapolis – Chuck Pagano 5-11 7-9 6-9
Jacksonville – Gus Bradley 4-8 6-6 3-9
Kansas City - Andy Reid* 32-36 30-34-4 39-27-2
Los Angeles - Jeff Fisher 38-42 37-41-2 38-28
Miami - Adam Gase - - -
Minnesota – Mike Zimmer 8-1 7-2 4-5
New England - Bill Belichick* 46-39 42-36-7 31-33-1
New Orleans – Sean Payton 19-18 21-16 19-15-3
New York Giants - Ben McAdoo - - -
New York Jets – Todd Bowles 3-1 3-1 2-2
Oakland – Jack Del Rio 22-18 21-17-2 22-18
Philadelphia - Doug Pederson - - -
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin 21-17 16-21-1 15-22-1
San Diego – Mike McCoy 5-7 7-4-1 5-7
San Francisco – Chip Kelly 7-5 7-5 10-2
Seattle - Pete Carroll* 25-16 27-13-1 17-11
Tampa Bay - Dirk Koetter - - -
Tennessee - Mike Mularkey 6-6 7-5 5-6-1
Washington - Jay Gruden 6-2 5-3 2-6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Buying the Browns
By Micah Roberts

Are the Cleveland Browns really the worst team in the NFL?

If looking at odds board all along the Las Vegas strip, the answer is yes. And there's lots of recent history to support the notion.

The Browns haven't had a winning record since 2007 (10-6) and they haven't made the playoffs since losing a Wild Card game in 2002. They come off an awful 3-13 season finishing dead last in the AFC North for the fifth consecutive year.

So it's not hard to understand why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has them listed as the longest shot to win the Super Bowl at 200/1 -- double the next longest odds -- and also the lowest season win total at 4.5 (Over -155) -- the next lowest is Tennessee and San Francisco at 5.5 victories.

The crew at the CG Technology sport book hub office inside M Resort also don't have a high rating on the 2016 version of the Browns. They posted the first 16 weeks of spreads for every team in April and the Browns weren't favored in any of them. Not even one home game. The smallest spread placed upon them is a Week 16 game where the Chargers are 2-point road favorites.

CG has the Browns as their lowest rated team, just a point worse than Tennessee who are 3.5-point favorites in a Week 6 matchup in Nashville. If going by last year's awful numbers, the rating is hard to argue against as their average score was 17-27. They couldn't stop the run or pass on defense and their offense was almost as bad.

But action for Week 1 has actually come in on the Browns.

"One of the biggest moves we've had in Week 1 has seen the Browns drop from +8.5 to +6.5 at Philadelphia," said CG Technology's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "But I don't think those wagers on the Browns were necessarily because of bettors liking them as much as they don't like the Eagles. There's a lot of anti-Eagles sentiment with smart money. One (respected) bettor bet against the Eagles in 13 of their 16 games we have have posted. And it doesn't just stop there with weekly games.

To make the playoffs, the NO on Philly opened -170 and it's now -240 and the season win total went from 7.5 UNDER -115 to -155."

As for the Browns, Simbal said they have seen action on them to win the AFC North with the number dropping from 35/1 down to 20/1 odds, citing a lot of small action with the largest wager being $200 at 30/1. But bettors also laid -1000 for Cleveland not to make the playoffs (again) and it's now -1200 with the YES at +750.

The Westgate also has seen some action on the Browns to win the division where its odds have dropped from 35/1 down to 25/1. Pittsburgh is the 6/5 favorite, followed by last years division winner Cincinnati at 3/2 and Baltimore at 7/2. Just like CG, the action has been small, but the risk builds up quickly at large numbers like that.

Could there just be some sentimental believing in Believe-land lately with the Cavs winning a title in the city for the first time since 1964 and the first-place Indians looking at a postseason birth? Is it possible the winning vibe soaking up the city could help the initial mindset of the Browns?

One thing for sure is this years Browns have a much different look than 2015. They have a new head coach, the offensive-minded Hue Jackson, and they also got a new QB in Robert Griffin III, who was just named the starter on Monday.

Rookie first-round pick Corey Coleman out of Baylor has been impressing in camp to the point he's been listed as the starter along side converted QB Terrell Pryor who is proving to have great hands and has been a beast to cover. Griffin's Baylor teammate, WR Josh Gordon, will also be back after serving a four-game suspension to start the season. All-Pro CB Joe Haden, who only played five games last season, has been cleared to practice and will be ready for Week 1 at Philadelphia.

"I think they have a good infrastructure in place with Hue Jackson and an improved roster to be good, or at least better than expected," Simbal said.

Obviously the key is Griffin at QB. The Browns will only go as far as he can take them and the hope is that he'll be healthy enough to have a re-birth in Cleveland after being immature at times and showing a lack of leadership in Washington that helped make the decision to bench him easy. Sometimes a change of scenery is the best thing that can happen to a player and Griffin is still young and athletic enough to make special plays. In 1980 the Oakland Raiders were coming off two straight seasons of not making the playoffs and former Heisman Trophy winner Jim Plunkett led the them to a Super Bowl win when getting his chance to start again.

"Throughout the offseason program and training camp, Robert (Griffin) has shown improvement every day," Hue Jackson said in a press release Monday, "and we expect him to continue to ascend as he becomes more and more acclimated to the offensive system we will employ this season. I've been crystal clear on what we expect from Robert. He fully understands the responsibility and I feel he is ready to handle this role."

I'm looking for Griffin to be better than most are expecting and I also expect the team to get better along the way. They play six of their last nine games at home and could be vying for a playoff position, or dare I say, a division title.

I'm believing in Cleveland this season which has me thinking 9-7 is a strong possibility making all their final six home games currently posted at CG having nice value, as well as OVER 4.5 wins.

Getting +4 against the Jets in Week 8 is attractive, so is +5 against Dallas in Week 9, +8.5 against Pittsburgh in Week 11, +3.5 against the Giants in Week 12, +7.5 against Cincinnati in Week 14 and +2 against the Chargers in Week 16. They should have the most rapidly adjusted rating by Week 7 when things start to really jell.

Still, it's hard to change old habits and grasp reality sometimes. Cleveland has averaged only 4.6 wins a year the past eight seasons. I could be way off, but I'm definitely a believer this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Redskins at Falcons (-3, 37) – 7:00 PM EST

Washington
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy, Nate Sudfeld (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Rick Snider

The Redskins have succeeded in the preseason in Gruden’s two seasons at the helm by winning six of eight games. Washington limited all four opponents last exhibition season to 17 points or less, while winning both of its road games at Cleveland and Baltimore. Gruden is unbeaten in two exhibition openers, while the Redskins own a 6-2 mark to the ‘under’ in their last eight preseason contests.

Atlanta
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Sean Renfree, Matt Simms
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: D. Orlando Ledbetter

The Falcons split their four preseason games in Quinn’s first season, as both victories came at home against the Titans and Ravens. Since 2011, Atlanta has compiled a 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS at the Georgia Dome in the preseason, while winning two straight exhibition openers since losing the first preseason game from 2011 through 2013. The Falcons last played the Redskins in the preseason back in 2004 as Washington grabbed a 24-0 shutout.

Buccaneers at Eagles (-3, 37) – 7:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Jameis Winston, Mike Glennon, Ryan Griffin
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Scott Smith

Tampa Bay posted a 2-2 SU/ATS record in Winston’s rookie exhibition season. The Buccaneers dropped their opener at Minnesota, 26-16 in 2015, their third straight Week 1 exhibition setback. Winston failed to throw a touchdown pass in three games, but did rush for two scores.

Philadelphia
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, Carson Wentz (Rookie), McLeod Bethel-Thompson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane

The Carson Wentz era begins in Philadelphia, although the second overall pick in May’s draft won’t be starting in the preseason opener. Chip Kelly’s final preseason with the Eagles ended with a solid 3-1 SU/ATS record, while scoring at least 36 points in all three victories. With Pederson at the helm, there is no early indication on how he will treat the preseason, but the Eagles have fared well at home in exhibition action by posting a 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS since 2011 at Lincoln Financial Field.

Jaguars at Jets (-2 ½, 36 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

Jacksonville
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Brandon Allen (Rookie), Max Wittek (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ryan O’Halloran
The Jaguars won more than one preseason game for the first time in Bradley’s three seasons with a 2-2 SU/ATS record in 2015. Jacksonville is riding a two-game winning streak in preseason openers, including a 23-21 home victory over Pittsburgh last August to barely cash as one-point favorites. The Jags have been a terrific ‘under’ team in the last two preseasons by going 7-1 to the ‘under,’ including a 4-0 mark on the road.

New York
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Rich Cimini

Following a 23-3 drubbing at Detroit in Bowles’ preseason debut in 2015, the Jets won their final three exhibition contests to close at 3-1 SU/ATS. New York won both home games against the Falcons and Eagles, while also picking up a “road” win against the rival Giants at Met Life Stadium. The Jets are riding a seven-game losing streak in preseason openers with their last victory in Week 1 coming back in 2008.

Panthers at Ravens (-1 ½, 36 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

Carolina
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (11-9 SU, 11-9 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Joe Webb
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Joe Person

The defending NFC champions started strong in the preseason prior to a 15-1 regular season by putting together a 3-1 SU/ATS mark in exhibition play. The Panthers won each of their two road contests, including the opener at Buffalo as three-point underdogs, 25-24. Carolina owns a solid 5-2 ATS record as a preseason road underdog since 2012, while sailing ‘over’ the total in four consecutive exhibition openers.

Baltimore
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (20-12 SU, 19-13 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson, Jerrod Johnson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley

The Ravens posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record in the 2014 preseason, but dropped to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in the 2015 preseason. Last season, Baltimore captured its exhibition opener against New Orleans, but the offense didn’t score more than 19 points in any of its final three losses. Under Harbaugh, the Ravens have won four straight preseason openers, while scoring at least 30 points or more three times.

Saints at Patriots (-3 ½, 39 ½) – 7:30 PM EST

New Orleans
Head Coach: Sean Payton (19-18 SU, 21-16 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Garrett Grayson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Larry Holder

Since Payton took over as coach of the Saints in 2006, New Orleans never put together a winless preseason. Until 2015. The Saints slumped to an 0-4 SU/ATS mark last August, while the defense allowed at least 26 points in all four defeats. New Orleans had won four consecutive preseason openers prior to a 30-27 defeat at Baltimore last August, while the Saints are winless in their last two preseason matchups against the Patriots with the two losses coming by a combined three points.

New England
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (46-39 SU, 42-36-7 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ben Volin

The Patriots haven’t put much stock in their last two preseason openers by scoring a combined 17 points in losses to the Redskins (’14) and Packers (’15). Brady played two series in last year’s opening loss to Green Bay, while the New England star will see action in the preseason prior to serving his four-game regular season suspension. The Patriots won all four home games from 2013-14, but dropped each of their two contests at Gillette Stadium last preseason.

Broncos at Bears (-1, 35) – 8:00 PM EST

Denver
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (22-14 SU, 22-12-2 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Cameron Wolfe

The Broncos begin their title defense in the post-Peyton Manning era with questions at the quarterback position. Defending Super Bowl champions have struggled in their first preseason game the following season, owning a 1-4 SU/ATS record the last five seasons (Giants only winner in 2012). The Broncos won each of their two preseason road games in Kubiak’s first season as coach, beating the Seahawks and Texans last August. Since 2012, Denver has won seven of its past eight exhibition contests away from the Mile High City, which includes a 6-1 ATS mark as a road underdog.

Chicago
Head Coach: John Fox (31-25 SU, 27-28-1 ATS preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, David Fales, Connor Shaw
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Zach Zaidman

All three of Chicago’s wins last preseason came by double-digits, including a 27-10 rout of Miami in the opener. The Bears’ defense stepped up by allowing 11 points or less three times, while the ‘under’ went 3-0-1 in Fox’s first exhibition campaign. Chicago has won six of its previous seven home exhibition games, but were blown out the last time it faced Denver in the preseason, 31-3 in Manning’s Broncos’ debut in 2012.