CFL ‘Underdogs’ & ‘Unders’ have oddsmakers on their toes in Week 3
By Jason Logan
The CFL was a one-sided league in 2014, with the West dominating the East. That may not be the case in 2015, and early underdog bettors are making plenty of bacon – Canadian bacon that is – two weeks in.
Entering Week 3 of the schedule, CFL underdogs are an unblemished 7-0 ATS (8-0 ATS if you got Hamilton as a dog instead of pick’em versus Winnipeg in Week 2) with six of those paydays coming from East Division teams covering the spread against squads from the West Division. In fact, the East holds a 5-1 SU edge over the West after going 12-28 SU in non-divisional clashes last season.
“Bettors generally like to back favorites and when you combine that with the West’s dominance from last season, it is no wonder that these early results have been unexpected,” renowned CFL oddsmaker Randall “The Handle”
Week 2 featured four non-divisional matchups and all four went to teams from the East. Hamilton knocked off Winnipeg 52-26 after closing as big as a 1.5-point underdog at most books, Montreal dropped defending Grey Cup champ Calgary 29-11 as a 9.5-point home dog, Ottawa stunned B.C. 27-13 as a 3-point home pup, and Toronto capped the week with a 42-40 OT win in Saskatchewan as a field-goal underdog.
The Week 3 slate has three of its four games between non-divisional opponents, with Ottawa at Edmonton, Montreal at Winnipeg, and Toronto at Calgary. Randall says this week’s CFL spreads will not be shaded toward this trend but he does say he’ll be closely monitoring the betting patterns for Week 3 action.
“It truly is a small sample although we cannot ignore some of the things we are seeing,” he says. “We will gauge both the teams competing and the marketplace but it remains business as usual. go to askthebookie. As a linemaker, my objective is always to draw good two-way action and week to week action is a component.”
“Faves will start covering some games at some point but no one knows when that may start,” he adds. “We’ll see if action dwindles at all this week or if bettors feel that this is the week where things start to balance out. Lines have been sent out. We’ll see how it goes.”
Sportsbooks aren’t complaining, that’s for sure. As Randall mentioned, the betting market usually backs the favorite which means all those underdog ATS victories have opened CFL betting season in style for
Bookmakers. However, while they are celebrating that profitable kickoff to 2015, they do expect this trend to balance out in the coming weeks.
“Underdogs can be a good bet early in the season in any football league really. With all of the roster changes, there is a bit of an adjustment period for both the books and the bettors to get a feel for how the teams will actually perform,” Greg Sindall of SportsInteraction. “7-0 ATS is definitely not normal though. It’s been pretty good for the book though since the favorites usually see more action in any sport.”
Another trend, which has carried over from last season, is the rate Unders have cashed in for total bettors. So far, through two weeks, CFL games have finished 3-5 Over/Under – on the heels of the 2014 season in which CFL games went 34-51 O/U on the year for a 60 percent winning rate for Under players.
Entering 2015, the CFL changed rules regarding pass interference and punt returns, hoping to jumpstart scoring following a 2014 campaign that saw team’s average scoring drop from 26.21 points per game in 2013 to just 22.74 points. So far in 2015, CFL teams are averaging 26.18 points per game but that increase in production hasn’t paid out for the Over.
“Scoring was down a year ago and not too much has changed, despite the rule changes. That said, the new rules are creating more opportunities for scoring but teams have not taken full advantage quite yet,” Randall says. “A slew of quarterback injuries could be a contributing factor. Again, we’ll monitor and respond accordingly.”
As of the third week of the CFL calendar, more than half of the league’s teams are missing their designated No. 1 quarterback with Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Saskatchewan, and now Winnipeg – QB Drew Willy questionable for Friday’s home stand against the Alouettes – looking down the depth chart at pivot.
Books have started releasing Week 3 odds with the Eskimos opening as 5-point home faves against Ottawa, Montreal opening +3.5 at Winnipeg, BC opening as a 3.5-point home fave against Saskatchewan and the Argos +6.5 at the Stampeders.
