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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 20:00

Germany

v

France

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		2	2	9/5	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
NWNWNDNWNWND*​ Most recent​	0 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 1 1 - 2	NWNWNWNDNWNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Germany have conceded one goal at Euro 2016

EXPERT VERDICT: This looks sure to be a tight semi-final between two evenly matched teams and they may need extra-time or even penalties to find a winner in Marseille. France have shown more going forward at Euro 2016 but the hosts have had an easy run through to this stage and Germany will be a much tougher test than Iceland, Ireland, Romania, Albania and Switzerland.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Nicola Rizzoli STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

[h=3]France v Germany (2000BST, Marseille)[/h]
Opta facts:

• This will be the fifth encounter between Germany and France at a major finals tournament, their first in the European Championships. France won the first meeting (6-3 in 1958) whilst Germany came out on top in the next three (on penalties in 1982, 2-0 in 1986, 1-0 in 2014).
• Alain Giresse is the last French player to score against Germany at a major finals tournament; coming in the 1982 World Cup semi-final.
• France have never kept a clean sheet in their four meetings with Germany at major finals tournaments.
• France and Germany's last head-to-head dates back to 13 November 2015. Didier Deschamp's men won 2-0 in a friendly at the Stade de France.
• France are unbeaten in their last 17 major tournament games played on home soil, winning 15 and drawing two. Their last defeat dates back to July 1960 in the inaugural European Championships against Czechoslovakia (0-2).
• France are the top scorers at EURO 2016 with 11 goals in five games. They hadn't netted that many in a major tournament since EURO 2000 (13).
• Thomas Müller hasn't scored a single goal in 10 games at the EURO - he also missed his penalty in the shoot-out against Italy last Saturday. He has 10 goals in 13 World Cup games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Euro 2016 semifinals betting cheat sheet and odds

The two semifinals of Euro 2016 couldn't be more different. One match features two perennial world powers (Germany and France) while the other features an upstart Wales squad against Portugal who is lucky to be in this position.

Portugal Working Overtime

Nothing has come easy for Portugal (+115), which has failed to win a game in regular time so far in the European Championships. But extra-time and penalty shootout triumphs has the Portuguese side in the semifinals for the fourth time in six tournament appearances, and it can advance to the final Wednesday with a win over upstart Wales (+290) at Stade des Lumieres in Lyon. The Welsh side is in the final four at a Euro for the first time in history, advancing to the semis with a 3-1 triumph over world power Belgium.

Lucky Seven for Germany?

A stubborn German side (+180) seeks its seven European Championship finals appearance as it tangles with host France (+175) in semifinal action Thursday at Stade Velodrome in Marseille. Germany eked past Italy in a lengthy penalty showdown in the quarterfinals, after the teams played to a 1-1 draw through 120 minutes. The French come in with big-time momentum after rolling past Iceland 5-2 in the quarterfinals. Germany has won the Euro title three times, while France is looking for its third Euro championship all-time.

News and Notes

* Wales will be missing a pair of key players due to second yellow cards picked up in the quarterfinal victory over Belgium. Star midfielder Aaron Ramsey and veteran defender Ben Davies will both sit out Wednesday’s game, but will be eligible to return for the final.

* At least one player’s family has changed plans ahead of the Belgium-Wales clash. Welsh defender Chris Gunter’s parents will be at his semifinal match in Lyon rather than attending his brother’s wedding in Mexico.

Injury Updates

* Portugal fullback Raphael Guerrero is doubtful for Wednesday’s semifinal matchup as he deals with an undisclosed muscle injury. Midfielder Andre Gomes also has a muscle ailment, and is listed as doubtful.

* Germany will be short-handed for its Thursday tilt with France. Sami Khedira is out after being substituted in the first half against Italy, while Bastian Schweinsteiger and Jerome Boateng are also banged up.

Weather Watch

* Clear skies are expected for Wednesday’s Portugal-Wales clash, with a zero percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low-70s.

* Germany-France will see scattered clouds at kickoff, but no rain expected and temperatures sitting in the high-70s for game time.

Props of the Day

* Wales/Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale to Both Score: Yes (+500): Two of the top goal-scorers will square off in Lyon, with both players a threat to convert at any time. Look for this one to be a wide-open affair, which plays to both strikers’ strengths.

* Germany/France, Half Time/Full Time: France/France (+335): With the home side still buzzing over its five-goal outburst against Iceland and the Germans possibly short four key players, this one has tilted heavily in France’s favour. Expect a dominant showing by the hosts.

Key Trends and Stats

* Wales is the first Euro debut team to reach the semifinals since 1992, when Sweden fell to Germany.

* Portugal and Wales last meet in a 2000 friendly, with the Portuguese side cruising to a 3-0 victory.

* Germany and France have split four all-time World Cup meetings, with France winning the two most recent encounters; they have never met at the European Championships.

* France has won its last two major tournaments as the host country, prevailing at the 1998 World Cup and the 1984 European Championships.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Euro Semifinals
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Wednesday July 6 - Portugal vs. Wales

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
TV/Time: ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET

Before the tournament started the most likely semi-final on this side of the draw was Spain vs England. But both crashed out in the last 16, and instead it is the two countries’ smaller neighbours, Portugal and Wales, who face off in the third last match of Euro 2016. It is Wales’s first ever semi-final, but for Portugal it is their fifth semi-final since the turn of the century.

The media has billed this as ‘Ronaldo vs Bale’ - a clash between the two most talented players at this tournament. But there is much more to both teams than their Real Madrid star. Wales, however, will be weakened by the loss of Aaron Ramsey through suspension. He is nowhere near as important as Bale, who is irreplaceable, but his passing was the origin of much of Wales’s good play as they beat the Belgians 3-1. It was a superb performance, doing what their neighbours England never do: pulling out a huge performance when it matters.

Portugal have drawn all five of their matches so far, and while they have been decent in all of them, they are nothing to fear for Wales, and punters should not be surprised to see Fernando Santos’s team as big as 23/20. Wales are 16/5 and a draw is 21/10.

My pick here, however, is both teams to score at 6/5. Wales have been more adventurous in France than they were in qualifying, and BTTS has copped in four of their five games so far. Portugal will dominate possession and that will inevitably give them chances, whilst Wales are good from set-pieces and, of course, have Gareth Bale.

Prediction: Both teams to score at 6/5


Thursday July 7 - Germany vs. France

Location: Stade Vélodrome, Marseille
TV/Time: ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET

The comparative weakness of the other semi-final means that this titanic clash between Germany and France is seen by many as the real tournament decider. It looks an absolutely fascinating game, with bookies having the two teams absolutely neck and neck.

When the prices on this first came out, both teams were 15/8 to win the match, but France have been ever so slightly nudged into favouritism. They are 9/5 with Germany 2/1. Two years ago Germany were in a similar situation: rated absolutely identically to the hosts in a semi-final. What happened then? They beat Brazil 7-1.

There are good arguments to be made for both sides. France had a much more comfortable passage through the quarter-finals, beating a knackered Iceland team 5-2. They were 4-0 up at half-time and could coast through the second half. Germany, meanwhile, went through a gruelling draw with Italy. They were at it for 120 minutes plus a penalty shootout so, despite playing a day later, France might be fresher than Germany. There is also the not unimportant matter of home advantage.

However the case for Germany just looks a little bit stronger. They are the best team in Europe at the moment, and have an ability to control the pace of games that France do not quite have. They are mentally rock solid: no team is less likely to be thrown off course by playing against a hostile crowd. They are more experienced in big matches than France, and have fewer questions to answer at both ends of the pitch.

Prediction: Germany to win at 2/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Lynx (15-3) at Sun (4-13)

Date: July 07, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

The Minnesota Lynx have one of the best offenses in the WNBA, but their success starts on defense.

Minnesota (15-3) has the second-best scoring defense in the league and also holds opponents to the second-lowest shooting percentage. After limiting Chicago to 39.1 percent shooting in a victory Tuesday, the Lynx take aim Thursday night at the Eastern Conference cellar-dwelling Connecticut Sun (4-13).

"We just told our team that we are 78-1 when we hold our opponents below 40 percent," Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve said in Tuesday's postgame press conference. "That is how we win. That will always be the case with this group. That is where it starts and ends."

Minnesota, which got off to a WNBA-record 13-0 start, lost three in a row before winning its past two games.

The Lynx allowed an average of 92 points during their losing streak and failed to hold any of those three foes under 40 percent shooting. For the season, they allow 75.2 points and 41.6 percent shooting.

Minnesota and Connecticut are meeting for the first time this season.

The Sun are coming off their most impressive win of the season, an 86-83 triumph at Dallas on Saturday. Their other victories have come against San Antonio (twice) and Seattle, teams out of the playoff picture if the season ended today.

Connecticut is ninth in scoring at 80.3 points per game. Guard Alex Bentley averages a team-best 14.4 points per contest. Forward Alyssa Thomas averages 10.6 and guard Jasmine Thomas is at 10.2.

The Lynx, who average 83.3 points, are led by forward Maya Moore at 19.3 points and 4.3 assists per game. She scored 33 in the 87-82 win over Chicago, and her second-half defense on Sky star Elena Delle Donne was key. Delle Donne, the reigning league MVP, scored 38, but had just 13 after halftime when Moore got the defensive assignment.

"When Maya had a chance to guard her, it really got Maya going," Reeve said.

Minnesota has balance behind Moore. Center Sylvia Fowles averages 13.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, shooting 58.7 percent. Guard Seimone Augustus averages 10.2 points. Guard Lindsay Whalen averages 8.6 points, 3.5 assists and shoots 37.5 percent from 3-point range.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 2
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 2
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 2
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 2
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 2
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 2

Team Betting Notes

-- Ottawa (2-0) have opened with two impressive road victories. Last week they won a Grey Cup rematch on the road, this week it was a 28-13 dismantling of Montreal (1-1). The RedBlacks are 2-0 SU/ATS, cashing as a one-point favorite in Montreal. Ottawa has won four straight in this series, and they have covered five in a row against the Alouettes dating back to Sept. 26, 2014.

-- The Alouettes are 0-4 SU/ATS in their past four home games dating back to a win and cover against the Blue Bombers Sept. 20, 2015. They'll try to rectify that when Hamilton (1-1) pays a visit Friday.

-- The Tiger-Cats were humbled at home by a 28-3 count, as the BC Lions (2-0) have fired out of the chute. Hamilton is 1-4 SU/ATS over their past five regular season home outings.

-- The Lions are averaging 24.0 points per game on ofense, and allowing just 10.5 points per game allowed on defense. The 'under' has hit in each of their two games, and they have won straight up and covered despite being underdogs in both.

-- Canada Day was very enjoyable if you are a fan of Calgary (1-1) or a side bettors for the Stamps. They rebounded after their road loss in Week 1 to pound Winnipeg (0-2) by a 36-22 count. The game was actually a bit closer than the final score might indicate, too, as the Bombers outscored the Stamps 15-0 in the final quarter.

-- Saskatchewan (0-1) was tripped up at home by Toronto (1-1), as the Roughriders fell 30-17. Saskatchwan is 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS against the Argos dating back to July 26, 2014. Keep that in mind for later in the season when the sides meet again in Toronto Oct. 15.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 3
By David Schwab

The Ottawa RedBlacks kicked off Week 2 in the CFL with another impressive victory by hammering Montreal 28-13 in a game that closed as a PICK. In Thursday’s other action, Toronto evened its record at 1-1 with a solid 30-17 thrashing of Saskatchewan as a 3 ½-point road underdog.

On Friday night, British Columbia moved to 2-0 with an impressive 28-3 victory against Hamilton as a 5 ½-point road underdog. Later that night Calgary evened its mark on the year to 1-1 by beating Winnipeg 36-22 to cover as a heavy 11-point favorite at home. Here is a look at Week 3 in the CFL:

Thursday, July 7

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -10
Total: 52

Game Overview

Unfortunately for Blue Bombers’ fans their team is picking things up where they left off last season after losing six of their last seven games in 2015 straight-up. It did not help that slotback Weston Dressler was out of the lineup for last week’s game against Calgary and he remains questionable for Thursday with a head injury. Drew Willy added some garbage numbers in the fourth quarter when things were out of reach to end the game with 358 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns while going 32-for-43.

After rolling over Toronto on the road in their season opener as five-point underdogs, the Tiger-Cats came out flat in last week’s home opener. Jeramiah Masoli made everyone forget about the injured Zach Collaros on opening day, but he was ineffective against BC. He managed to throw for 248 yards while completing 66.6 percent of his 39 attempts, but he could not get his team in the end zone and he was picked-off twice. Hamilton could get nothing going on the ground with a total of 49 yards rushing.

Betting Trends

Hamilton has won eight of the last nine meetings straight-up and it is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven games between the two. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings.


Toronto Argonauts (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -4 ½
Total: 49

Game Overview

Toronto bounced back in a big way in Week 2 after losing its first regular season game at its new digs at BMO Field. The Argonauts will stay on the road this week and it heads into BC with a 2-6 record against the spread in its last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. Ricky Ray got hot right out of the gate last week against Saskatchewan with two scoring drives in Toronto’s first two possessions that included a pair of touchdown throws to Andre Durie and Vidal Hazelton.

The Lions evened their mark on the year behind a stifling defense and solid play by Jonathan Jennings at the quarterback position. He threw for 228 yards and one touchdown while completing 16-of-27 attempts. Emmanuel Arceneaux was his top target with six catches for 46 yards and a score. Jeramiah Johnson anchored BC’s running game with 76 yards rushing on 12 carries. The Lions come into this week’s interdivision matchup with a 6-2-1 record ATS in their last nine games in Week 3.

Betting Trends

The road team in this matchup has won the last four games both SU and ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of the last five meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's CFL doubleheader betting preview and odds

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-9, 52)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to bounce back from a humbling Week 2 loss when they host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday. The Tiger-Cats failed to score a touchdown in the 28-3 defeat to BC and were held to their lowest point total at home since a 20-2 setback to Toronto on Aug. 12, 2006.

Hamilton has dropped five of its last seven home games since winning its first nine contests at Tim Hortons Field - which opened on Sept. 1, 2014 - and hopes to get back on track by beating the Blue Bombers for the fourth consecutive time in the series. Winnipeg is still searching for its first win of the campaign following a 36-22 loss to Calgary. The Blue Bombers loaded up on free-agent talent during the winter and expectations were sky high heading into the season, but they have failed to deliver any on-field results and head coach Mike O'Shea is starting to feel the heat. Winnipeg is 12-26 since O'Shea took the top job in 2014 and he hopes to turn things around in a hurry with a daunting top-heavy schedule, which includes meetings with Calgary and defending Grey Cup champion Edmonton (twice) over the next three weeks.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN2

LINE HISTORY: There have been no line moves on this game at the time of publication of this preview. Hamilton opened as 9-point favorites and the total opened at 52.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Defensive back Johnny Adams, who recorded six interceptions in his rookie season in the CFL, is likely to make his first appearance of 2016 after recovering from an undisclosed injury and provide a much-needed boost to a defence that gave up over 500 yards in the loss to Calgary. "We weren't playing football out there," O'Shea told reporters. "We didn't tackle at all and we weren't swarming to the ball." Drew Willy threw for 358 yards and two touchdowns but a huge chunk of his production came in the fourth quarter when the game was already out of reach.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Jeremiah Masoli struggled against a fierce BC pass rush as he was sacked four times and threw his first two interceptions of the season while Brett Maher missed three field goals in the loss to the Lions. "I have to do better with the guys as we made a lot more mistakes than we've probably had in a long time," Hamilton coach Kent Austin admitted to reporters. "The good news is that it's all correctable and it's also early in the season so we have time to correct it." Veteran Geoff Tisdale, who was an all-star in 2013, was released to make room for fellow defensive back Chris Davis on the practice squad.

TRENDS:

* Blue Bombers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Tiger-Cats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
* Under is 6-1 in Tiger-Cats last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Hamilton.

CONSENSUS: At the time of publication of this preview, Winnipeg is picking up 52 percent of the wagers and Over 52 is grabbing 51 percent of the action.


Toronto Argonauts at BC Lions Lions (-5, 50)

The BC Lions look to continue their strong start to the season when they host the Toronto Argonauts on Thursday. The Lions came from behind to beat Calgary 20-18 in Wally Buono's return to the sideline in Week 1 before shutting down Hamilton 28-3 on Friday, and they hope to stay hot by opening the season with three consecutive victories for the first time since 2007.

"Other people are surprised but we're not surprised as we know we have a good team and it's just a tipping point," star linebacker Solomon Elimimian told reporters. "We're going to keep getting better, stay humble, stay hungry and just keep getting better." The Argonauts notched their first victory of the season after downing Saskatchewan 30-17 on the road in Week 2. Ricky Ray rebounded from a subpar showing against Hamilton by throwing two touchdown passes and he hopes for a repeat performance against a ferocious Lions defence that tops the league in fewest points allowed at 10.5 per game. Toronto split the season series with the Lions last year but have had some recent success at BC Place as the Argos hope to win three consecutive games in Vancouver for the first time since the late 1990s.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN2

LINE HISTORY: The spread for this one opened with the Lions pegged as 4.5-point favorites and by Tuesday afternoon the line had been bumped up to -5 at most books. The total opened at 49 and was nudged up a point to 50.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Toronto acquired defensive end Shawn Lemon, who recorded six sacks in nine games with Ottawa last season, from Saskatchewan in return for offensive lineman Matt Sewell and quarterback Mitchell Gale. Vidal Hazelton continues to make big plays as he caught two passes for 69 yards and a touchdown while Andre Durie added a TD reception in the win over the Roughriders. "Great teams rebound properly and that's what we did," Durie told reporters. "We eliminated our mistakes and we took advantage of our opportunities."

ABOUT THE LIONS (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Jonathon Jennings had his most productive game of the young season, throwing for 228 yards and a touchdown while Shawn Gore continued his impressive start as he hauled in four passes for 116 yards in the win over Hamilton. Ryan Phillips recorded the 47th interception of his career against the Tiger-Cats and needs four more picks to equal the franchise record. Elimimian had six tackles and looked like his pre-injury self in his first game in Hamilton since rupturing his Achilles in the 52-22 loss at Tim Hortons Field last season.

TRENDS:

* Argonauts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.
* Under is 7-1 in Argonauts last 8 games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in Lions last 10 games in July.
* Under is 17-7 in the last 24 meetings.

CONSENSUS: At the time of publication of this preview, the Lions are picking up 54 percent of the wagers and Over 50 is grabbing 53 percent of the action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 3 CFL games

Winnipeg (0-2) @ Hamilton (1-1)-- Bombers allowed 29 ppg in losing first two games; they've lost 8 of last 9 games with Hamilton, losing four of last five visits here, with three of four losses by 10+ points. TiCats split pair of one-sided games to open season, with road team winning both. they're 3-5 in last eight home games. Under is 12-6 in last 18 series games.

Toronto (1-1) @ BCLions (2-0)-- Lions allowed 10.5 ppg to win its first two games, upsetting Calgary in its home opener. after going 4-5 at home LY. Argonauts lost eight of last 11 games with BC, with visitors winning last four; Toronto won 40-23/30-27 in last two visits to Vancouver. Argos also split pair of one-sided games to open season, with road team winning both.

Calgary (1-1) @ Ottawa (2-0)-- RedBlacks scored 36.5 ppg in winning its first two games, including an OT win in Edmonton- this is their home opener. Calgary won three of four games with Ottawa, losing in OT here LY; three of four series games went over. Stampeders bounced back from Week 1 loss at BC with 36-22 home win over Winnipeg last week; they're 5-3 in last eight road games.

Saskatchewan (0-1) @ Edmonton (0-1)-- Eskimos lost home opener in OT to Ottawa, ending 10-game win streak, then had the bye last week; Roughriders had Week 1 bye, then lost 30-17 to Argonauts at home last week. Eskimos won six of last seven games with Roughriders, beating them 30-5/35-24 LY. Saskatchewan lost its last three visits to Edmonton, by 24-8-25 points.


Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Hamilton TigerCats 9, 52

Toronto Argonauts
British Columbia Lions 5, 50

Calgary Stampeders
Ottawa RedBlacks even, 53

Saskatchewan Roughriders
Edmonton Eskimos 10, 49.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 14 - Post: 5:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$16000 - 3 & 4 YR. OLDS NW 5 EXT. PM RACES OR $50,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERENCE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 STAYING FOCUSED 9/2


# 1 MAKER A YANKEE 3/1


# 6 MULTITASKR HANOVER 2/1


STAYING FOCUSED sure does look ready to score. This gelding getting the triumph wouldn't be impossible, a chance. With better than average win percentages, Miller should have this gelding in excellent position to win the race. MAKER A YANKEE - Harrah's Philadelphia has been playing to this nice horse's running style, we're looking for a very strong effort. Is a very compelling choice given the 78 TrackMaster SR from her most recent outing. MULTITASKR HANOVER - This race horse recorded a nice TrackMaster speed fig in last race. Looks to be going well to come right back. Recent figures for the driver - 20 percent win - make this gelding a stand out in the group of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Scioto Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 9:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$7500 - HORSES AND GELDINGS CLAIMING $7500


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 E R PACMAN 5/1


# 7 SHOOTIN TYME 10/1


# 8 THE LADIES MAN 3/1


If you want a formidable play in this event, feast your eyes on E R PACMAN. Been running with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 82). Many expert selectors will recognize the outstanding TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last gathering. Stacks up against any horse in this field of horses. Talk about a dynamic duo, Page and Burke have some of the best driver-conditioner figures at the track. SHOOTIN TYME - Not many knocks against this nice horse, let's give him a shot. THE LADIES MAN - Has really good TrackMaster SRs and more than likely has to be considered for a wager here. Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a strong 82 speed figure. Major contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6700 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 7. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 STRIKE THE NOTE 7/2


# 3 I CAT 5/2


# 5 VALIDATED BLARNEY 6/1


STRIKE THE NOTE looks decent to best this field. His 81 average has this gelding with among the most respectable speed figures in this competition. This gelding gets a boost with Murgia in the saddle. Must be given consideration based on the solid Equibase Speed Figure earned in the last contest. I CAT - Looks very good against this field and will probably be one of the leaders. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of formidable win percentage - 24 percent - at this distance & surface. VALIDATED BLARNEY - Always seems to be close up at the finish line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 106

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED SINCE APRIL 7, 2016 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 7


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 MAJESTIC PRIDE 7/2


# 5 RED ZEUS 6/1


# 4 WARONTHEHOMEFRONT 4/1


I think about MAJESTIC PRIDE here. Has to be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. I like the rider on this colt - respectable chance to win the contest. RED ZEUS - Shows strong speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. If you look closely, this horse has some longshot potential. WARONTHEHOMEFRONT - Has been moving in the most competitive company of the field recently. Will almost certainly go to the lead and should never look back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #1 - Post: 6:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,900 Class Rating: 63

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 KITCH (ML=6/1)
#4 TUFFY'S LUCKY (ML=3/1)


KITCH - Rodriguez comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last race. This gelding's has a great shot against these thoroughbreds in today's race. His trainer has an excellent win percentage when moving horses from the dirt to the turf. TUFFY'S LUCKY - This speed freak should benefit from this shorter trip. Thurston brings him right back. I suggest you stick with this live gelding. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. A repeat of that latest performance on June 22nd where he notched a speed figure of 61 looks strong enough to prove victorious in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ATTICUS FINCH (ML=8/5), #7 TORE DOWN (ML=4/1), #6 ARKANSAS REBEL (ML=6/1),

ATTICUS FINCH - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked fit of late. Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a short distance affair to be worth the chance at low odds in a sprint. Shouldn't play this one as the public's choice with little to offer for the risk involved. TORE DOWN - Pace is so significant, and this early speedball is going to have a speed duel on his hands. ARKANSAS REBEL - I find it hard to play this less than sharp equine this time. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you wager on him in a race of 5 furlongs.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 KITCH is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Evangeline Downs - Race #1 - Post: 5:50pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 53

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SHERM'S GOLD (ML=4/1)
#6 MOLOTOV (ML=2/1)


SHERM'S GOLD - After the event aboard this equine on June 15th, the jock is going to be in touch with the gelding much better. Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. This animal has increased his speed ratings in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at. Early speed, plus the rail, plus a bullring equals a powerful contender. MOLOTOV - A repeat of that latest race on Jun 24th where he registered a figure of 52 looks lofty enough to score in this event. Have to forget about that last grass race. This gelding should do better hitting the main track in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LUCAME (ML=3/1), #5 EPPY (ML=4/1), #7 GIBBIEISSMOOTH (ML=6/1),

LUCAME - Pace makes the race and the lack of speed means this closer will have to rally without any help. EPPY - This animal hasn't been close in either of his last couple of efforts. The rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this racer as a vulnerable contender. GIBBIEISSMOOTH - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when looking at the most recent showings. Based on the pace scenario in this contest, this equine doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this animal having to race from behind, he sure has a tough assignment. This steed ran a substandard rating last time out. He shouldn't run better and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that rating.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 SHERM'S GOLD on the win end if we get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 7/7 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 1,2,6/1,2,7/4/1,3,4,5,6/2,7,8,9 = $36

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4,5,6/2,7,8,9/3/2,4,10 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 2,4,10/2,5,6/3,5,6/1,7 = $54

MEET STATS: 191 - 564 / $1009.50 BEST BETS: 33 - 52 / $106.70

SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 51 / $56.40

Best Bet: STONEBRIDGE BULLET (3rd)

Spot Play: ASTON HILL DAVE (6th)


Race 1

(6) PLACE TO ROCKNROLL - a half-sister to Table Talk (8 wins, $477K, 1:49 3/5 M) and Sing Like An Angel (44 wins, $267K, 1:53 2/5 M)-starts out in a spot where she could notch her maiden win right away. Alagna's barn has been doing well of late. (2) DOCS SAUSALITO gets Lasix, a much better post and faces easier; likely the one to beat here. (1) LUCKY PLAYER has improved for Jamieson and he returns to drive her here; using. (3) SPARKLE beat the choice in a two-move win in her qualifier and it wouldn't be a shock if she bettered this placing.

Race 2

(1) ROYAL CHARM was a sharp first-over winner last week when required to pace the fastest 1/4 of the race at the end of the mile. If she behaves, she should be good for another here. (7) MAGICAL VALENTINE will be the one the choice has to chase down if this Kadabra filly doesn't self-destruct again, as she did in her last start. (2) CATCH A MISSION gets back to a 7-day cycle for the first time since her May 20th win, which could make a big difference here. (3) PROFOUND PATIENCE picks up a catch driver here and she could crash the exotics at a price.

Race 3

(4) STONEBRIDGE BULLET - a $85K Forest City sale purchase - should have plenty more to offer than what he showed in his July 1 debut and we should see some of it tonight; top call. (5) EXIT SANDMAN is a half-brother to several winners including 52-time winner Clowns Smile, who earned $737K and took a mark of 1:50 flat. He looks well prepped to contend here. (2) MACH DÉJÀ VU was solid in his lone qualifier racing on a track rated one second slow; using. (8) TEST RIDE is a homebred out of a dam that is a full-sister to 2012 North America Cup champ Thinking Out Loud. This colt could be closing late for a piece here.

Race 4

In a race with virtually every entrant having poor or sketchy form, I'll go with the hot Weller barn and (3) ITS A BIG SECRET on top. (1) BIG HAROLD raced well last week and is rated highly with Filion again taking the reins. (6) LUMIERE will almost surely be the first leader, but his final quarters suggest he will stick around for only a smaller award. (4) TEA WITH MS MCGILL can produce a strong brush when right but he can also be very erratic. Perhaps the Macdonald barn can get a top effort out of him first time off the claim.

Race 5

(7) ARCHERY raced better last time and seems to be coming around for McNair, little by little; slightest of nods in a tough race to figure. (8) GROUPIE DOLL was patiently driven in her debut and closed okay when the pace picked up. She almost surely has much more to offer and can take these if she is put into the race early enough. (9) EARLY DECISION gets Jamieson for the second time, which isn't the worst angle play you could make; using. (2) THE MUSCLE TOUCH is likely to follow along and grab a small share if she stays flat.

Race 6

(3) ASTON HILL DAVE looks prepared to fire off a quick mile in this debut for team McNair here and will likely get sent from his inner post; on top. (8) SILVERINYOURPOCKET - a $19K Forest City sale buy - is owned by the same connections of local Preferred mare Ms Mac N Cheese. He should shave several seconds off that 2:02 3/5 qualifier at Northside in the Maritimes; beware. (7) REBEL VOYAGER is a half-brother to Lively Freddie, who recently won 4 straight including taking a new life's mark of 1:54 1/5 at Georgian Downs. Toss this one on your Pick 4 tickets. (6) DOC SEMALU goes for connections that are hard to dismiss, although a smaller share seems likely here.

Race 7

(2) PENNIES FROM ABOVE couldn't close much into the fastest quarter of the race last week. She finally gets an inside post and could get a much more aggressive drive here. (10) VERY CLASSY gets Byron back and he steered her to a 1:55 2/5 score two back; using. (4) TYMAL TEMPEST went a long trip after breaking early last time. She rates highly here if she can stay flat. (6) UNICUM BI A has a solid record and good tactical speed, which should him a check here.

Race 8

(6) MACHIN A TRICK is a half-brother to two that have raced from the dam that have combined for 21 wins, including $210K earner Major Trick who took a mark of 1:51 3/5 on a 1/2-mile track. He looks ready to produce a strong debut effort. (2) MC MACH, a homebred, is from a dam that has produced all winners so far. His July 1 qualifier on a track rated a second slow was strong. (5) DOWN ON MY LUCK, a full brother to Coach Cal (26 wins, $275K, 1:52 2/5 H), raced much better in his second qualifier and should be heard from here. (8) EAST BOUND EDDIE is one-for-one, now moves to the big circuit and can't be discounted although the outer post likely does him no favors here.

Race 9

(5) YOGI BAYAMA made a good appearance on the track for his debut and outraced his odds to be 2nd to a strong winner. He can go forward and graduate here. (6) KINGSTON SEELSTER couldn't repel a sharp winner last time but he did knock almost two seconds off his final time in defeat. He should be right there this time. (3) MASTER THE VIEW is a half-brother to Inspiration View, who has won 6 of 17 starts and took a life's mark of 1:50 2/5 here this year. This colt looks ready to contend immediately. (1) ONE SOURCE dropped four seconds in his June 29 qualifier and should be able to grab a slice here.

Race 10

(7) HOPE AND FAITH finished quickly in her two Grassroots starts and rates highly here if put into the race early. (1) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE is going to trip-out near the front and win at a price soon; maybe tonight? (5) DOCS DIVA faces easier and keeps Filion; using. (6) MISTY DE VIE was off a month prior to her last start and still raced okay. She is another that could take the wide-open finale. (3) BLISS AND LUCK likely leaves for position near the front here and sticks around for a share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 7/7 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 162 - 678 / $1,037.90 BEST BETS: 17 - 67 / $75.50


Best Bet: NIPPY W HANOVER (2nd)

Spot Play: THE RIGHT MOVE (6th)


Race 1

(1) SEA VENTURE was quite dull in his last start, but now Brennan makes his return on the pacing gelding and catches a weak group. (4) STAY UP LATE was facing better of late and in his last try he had some trouble early and lost all chance. (3) JC KINGDOM should fare well from the 3-hole.

Race 2

(5) NIPPY W HANOVER is clearly knocking at the door based on his last three outings. (4) MY IDEAL HANOVER raced evenly to land fourth money last out. (1) RIVER RUNS THRU IT might make some headway with the rail.

Race 3

(1) CHEYENNE SEEBER closed fast to grab the show spot last time out and now he receives the pole position tonight; gets the call. (3) JUSTICE NY WAY was very game but no one was going to catch the winner in his last try. (5) SANDESTIN HANOVER leaves the 8-hole and could make some noise in here.

Race 4

(7) DIABANDO got the job done via the pocket route last time around. Gelding appears to be heading in the right direction and even with the move to door number 7, he can take another. (4) WESTERN BAYAMA showed good pace against better last out. (1) SKYFUL OF LIGHTERS gets post relief and that could help his cause.

Race 5

(2) HERETIC FRANCO N gets the best of the draw and this pacing mare appears to have good speed. With a well rated drive she can make tonight a winning one. (1) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N is on the drop-down and moves to the fence; likely favorite. (6) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY If you throw out her last start, this 6-year-old has a proven winning record; watch out.

Race 6

(6) THE RIGHT MOVE showed some punch at the half before tiring in the stretch drive last time out. Mare has tactical speed and with a favorable trip she can greet the cameraman for pictures. (2) STRINGS came down the center of the track to nail down the victory in her recent outing. (3) SIR JILLIAN Z TAM flashed speed and lost glory by only a neck last out.

Race 7

(4) COPPER COAST A faced some of these last time around and all this gelding needs is a perfect spot to strike and score, but the trip will be everything. (7) MONTEZUMA BLUECHIP was a fast closing second last time around and he is knocking at the door; threat. (6) LUCKY MCTRUCKY moves down in class and Bartlett has the assignment.

Race 8

(7) MODERN XHIBIT put in a sharp effort for win honors last time out. Dube signs on to another but Sears gets the call on this 7-year-old gelding. With another fine trip it could be game over for the rest. (4) SHADIOS is on a roll scoring his third straight victory. Hopefully the return to the rail for (1) STOMPIN TOM CREEK will be what he needs to get back to his winning ways.

Race 9

(8) SHADY CITY put in a mild bid in his last try and this gelding is very capable of moving forward despite drawing the far outside slot. (4) STONEBRIDGE TONIC took the pocket route home for all the marbles last time out. (2) GOTTA LAUGH AGAIN can be a big threat from the 2-hole; maybe.

Race 10

(4) HI HO STEVERINO has good tactical zip and it is good to see Bartlett stays with this gelding; threat at his best. (1) ROETHBLISSBERGER has been in the exacta in his last four starts and retains the fence. (3) REAL FLIGHT left from the 7-hole and was sitting in the pocket to get up for the score recently.

Race 11

(3) ZORGWIJK NOVA has not gotten the job done since April 29, but the good news is this gelding appeared to be coming around when he showed good speed last out. A turnaround is not out of the question with Bartlett at the helm. (7) LATOKA was second best last out, but will have to do his best from the 7-hole. (1) PIG HUNT has put in three fine efforts at Saratoga and stays on the fence; not out of this.

Race 12

(2) SENTIMENTAL LADY closed strongly to grab the victory three starts back and this mare has seen the cameraman five times this year. With a meltdown of the early leaders, she could mow them down for all the glory. (3) KAITLYN RAE has been very sharp this year hitting the board in 6 of 8 tries; big threat. (4) JAG OUT took the lead at the half but did not have enough gas in the tank and had to settle for the show spot last time around.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Arlington (5th) My Moment, 4-1
(7th) Cartoon, 4-1


Belterra Park (1st) Faithfully Wallst., 7-2
(5th) Bow Tie Boss, 3-1


Canterbury (7th) Keyed for Speed, 4-1
(8th) Duke of Luke, 3-1


Charles Town (1st) Boston Banshee, 10-1
(2nd) Game Maker, 3-1


Delaware Park (4th) Jackson P, 7-2
(7th) Believe Indeed, 6-1


Evangeline Downs (1st) Richter's Flyer, 10-1
(7th) Grand Farewell, 6-1


Finger Lakes (5th) Noir Et Bleu, 6-1
(9th) Graphene Miracle, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (5th) Simferopol, 8-1
(8th) Meta Mu, 8-1


Indiana Grand (4th) Pepite, 7-2
(8th) Bucchero, 3-1


Louisiana Downs (3rd) Tinc, 4-1
(6th) Little Miss Sparky, 4-1


Penn National (2nd) Cruisewithbrandon, 8-1
(6th) Freud's Vale, 7-2


Prairie Meadows (5th) Sly Star, 5-1
(8th) Saturday, 4-1


Presque Isle Downs (1st) Expropriate, 3-1
(2nd) Tres Huevos, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Betting: Division Underdogs

Just about half of a team’s 162 game MLB schedule is against division rivals and these games have a lot more meaning to them as team's try to either win a division title or get into the playoffs. If you're going to bet on underdogs, it's a great idea to focus on divisional games as there is extra incentive for team's in these matchups and under the right set of circumstances can deliver big profits.

At this point in the season, divisional home underdogs have won 53 games, lost 86 with a negative impact of -$2045 against the money line. Division road underdogs have walked off winners in 137 and at the wrong end of a decision 167 times. But, the road pooches have been a good choice, stuffing betting accounts to the tune of +$1533. Of course, you can't blindly bet on divisional road underdogs every time and expect to come out ahead in the long run, so let’s take a look at a situation where it favors you.

Our MLB number crunching machine chips in small to medium divisional road underdogs priced between +$1.00 and +$1.50 delivered the goods. In this situation the home favorite essentially has an edge but isn't overly superior meaning the underdog in what is basically a tossup game can easily upset the odds offering good value. In 221 situations so far, division road underdogs in the +$1.00 to +$1.50 range won at a 48.4% clip (107-114) rewarding backers with +$1527 at the betting window.

An even better ROI can be had focusing on fewer plays with less total money at risk. In this situation we want to concentrate strickly on a division road underdog that won the first game of the series and getting little respect in game-two as they won at a 55.3% clip (21-17) cashing +$788 worth of tickets.

While there's no guarantee small to medium divisional road underdogs in the above mentioned situation will continue to perform the rest of the way, the angle is definitely worth keeping an eye-out for.