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Golfers to Bet - PGA Champ.

Tournament: PGA Championship
Date: Thursday, July 28th
Venue: Baltusrol Golf Club
Location: Springfield, NJ

The world’s best golfers will be teeing off in the PGA Championship in New Jersey on Thursday. This is the final major of the year, so everybody is going to be looking to bring it this weekend.

This field is set to include guys like Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson and all of the other top-10 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR).

Phil Mickelson will also be on the course this weekend and he won this event the last time Springfield hosted the tournament. That was back in 2005 and Mickelson shot a four-under to defeat Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington by one stroke apiece. The winner of the last four of these tournaments has, however, shot at least a 10-under.

With Tiger Woods not playing on Thursday, Rory McIlroy’s two PGA Championship victories are the most of any player in the field. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best plays to make for the final major of the year:

Golfers to Bet:

Dustin Johnson (15/2) - Johnson is currently enjoying the best season of his career and he has showed no signs of slowing down. Since Feb. 18, Johnson has finished inside the top-10 in 10 of the 13 tournaments he has played in. That span includes a victory at the U.S. Open and a tie for fourth at The Masters. Johnson also happens to have finished tied for second at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. While other top golfers took that week off, Johnson stayed in rhythm and continued to make putts. That has been his weakness in the past, but he has shown some nice touch on the greens this year. If he can continue to own the short game then he should be able to win this thing on Sunday. Either way he’s a very likely pick to be in contention and is worth putting a few units on at 15-to-2.

Phil Mickelson (18/1) - As previously mentioned, Mickelson won the PGA Championship the last time Baltusrol Golf Club hosted the tournament. While that was back in 2005, Mickelson should still be feeling confident as he takes the course on Thursday. Not only has Mickelson won on this course, but he is also coming into this tournament in tremendous form. He was on fire at The Open Championship two weeks ago, shooting a 17-under and ultimately coming in second place. Had it not been for Henrik Stenson playing some flawless golf, Mickelson would have won yet another major. Mickelson may not have finished in first, but he surely showed that he has what it takes to keep winning at this level. He’s worth a few units at 18-to-1, as he should be able to carry over his play into this one.

Bubba Watson (35/1) - Bubba Watson has not performed well at majors this year, but he is still a very talented golfer and is more than capable of putting it together this weekend. The year hasn’t been all bad for Watson, as he actually has two victories on the season. Watson won the World Challenge back on Dec. 3 and he also won the Northern Trust Open on Feb. 18. One thing that Watson will need to get working this weekend is his iron play. Watson is good once he gets on the green, but he must find a way to give himself a chance to putt for some birdies this weekend. Still, he’s an incredible value at 35-to-1 and is worth putting a unit or two on due to his impressive resume.

Jhonattan Vegas (150/1) - When looking for a dark horse that could pay off huge this weekend, one way to go is putting a unit or half-unit on Vegas. Vegas has not yet played in a major this season, but he is coming into this tournament in a bit of a groove. He won last week’s RBC Canadian Open and he also happened to have played well the week before, finishing tied for fourth with a 15-under at the Barbasol Championship. It’s obviously not a certainty that he’ll be around on Sunday, but Vegas is one of the hotter golfers on the TOUR and is a worth a shot coming into this one.

Odds to win PGA Championship -

Dustin Johnson 15/2
Rory McIlroy 9/1
Jason Day 10/1
Jordan Spieth 14/1
Henrik Stenson 16/1
Phil Mickelson 18/1
Sergio Garcia 25/1
Justin Rose 30/1
Adam Scott 35/1
Bubba Watson 35/1
Rickie Fowler 40/1
Matt Kuchar 45/1
Patrick Reed 45/1
Branden Grace 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 55/1
Zach Johnson 55/1
Brooks Koepka 60/1
Charl Schwartzel 60/1
Jim Furyk 60/1
Martin Kaymer 60/1
JB Holmes 65/1
Danny Willett 70/1
Hideki Matsuyama 70/1
Louis Oosthuizen 70/1
Lee Westwood 80/1
Steve Stricker 80/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Justin Thomas 100/1
Kevin Chappell 100/1
Marc Leishman 100/1
Paul Casey 100/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
Bill Haas 110/1
Francesco Molinari 120/1
Scott Piercy 120/1
Andy Sullivan 125/1
Billy Horschel 125/1
Daniel Berger 125/1
Emiliano Grillo 125/1
Gary Woodland 125/1
Jimmy Walker 125/1
Keegan Bradley 125/1
Russell Knox 125/1
Tony Finau 125/1
Webb Simpson 125/1
Charley Hoffman 150/1
Danny Lee 150/1
David Lingmerth 150/1
Jhonattan Vegas 150/1
Kevin Kisner 150/1
Kevin Na 150/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 150/1
Ryan Palmer 150/1
Soren Kjeldsen 150/1
Tyrrell Hatton 150/1
Graeme McDowell 175/1
Harris English 175/1
Alex Noren 200/1
Bernd Wiesberger 200/1
Brendan Steele 200/1
Byeong-Hun An 200/1
Chris Kirk 200/1
Kevin Streelman 200/1
Luke Donald 200/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 200/1
Padraig Harrington 200/1
Ryan Moore 200/1
Thomas Pieters 200/1
William McGirt 200/1
Russell Henley 225/1
Aaron Baddeley 250/1
Andrew Johnston 250/1
Anirban Lahiri 250/1
Bryce Molder 250/1
Chris Wood 250/1
Colt Knost 250/1
Daniel Summerhays 250/1
Jamie Lovemark 250/1
Joost Luiten 250/1
KJ Choi 250/1
Kyle Reifers 250/1
Matt Jones 250/1
Roberto Castro 250/1
Si Woo Kim 250/1
Smylie Kaufman 250/1
Cameron Tringale 300/1
David Toms 300/1
Ernie Els 300/1
Freddie Jacobson 300/1
George Coetzee 300/1
Gregory Bourdy 300/1
Harold Varner III 300/1
Jason Kokrak 300/1
John Senden 300/1
Jonas Blixt 300/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 300/1
Kyung-Tae Kim 300/1
Patton Kizzire 300/1
Robert Streb 300/1
Ross Fisher 300/1
Scott Hend 300/1
Thongchai Jaidee 300/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 300/1
Victor Dubuisson 300/1
James Hahn 350/1
Troy Merritt 350/1
Younghan Song 350/1
Bradley Dredge 400/1
Brandon Stone 400/1
Brian Stuard 400/1
Jamie Donaldson 400/1
Jason Bohn 400/1
Jeunghun Wang 400/1
Jim Herman 400/1
Jon Curran 400/1
Vijay Singh 400/1
YE Yang 400/1
Billy Hurley III 500/1
Fabian Gomez 500/1
Greg Chalmers 500/1
Hideto Tanihara 500/1
James Morrison 500/1
Marcus Fraser 500/1
Rikard Karlberg 500/1
Vaughn Taylor 500/1
Zac Blair 500/1
Soomin Lee 600/1
Yuta Ikeda 600/1
Kristoffer Broberg 750/1
Peter Malnati 750/1
Brian Gaffney 1000/1
Darren Clarke 1000/1
John Daly 1000/1
Matt Dobyns 1000/1
Omar Uresti 1000/1
Rocco Mediate 1000/1
Rod Perry 1000/1
Joe Summerhays 1500/1
Johan Kok 1500/1
Tommy Sharp 1500/1
Wyatt Worthington II 1500/1
Ben Polland 2000/1
Brad Lardon 2000/1
Brad Ott 2000/1
Bryan Gaffney 2000/1
David Muttitt 2000/1
Josh Speight 2000/1
Mark Brown 2000/1
Michael Block 2000/1
Mitch Lowe 2000/1
Rich Beem 2000/1
Rich Berberian 2000/1
Rick Schuller 2000/1
Rob Labritz 2000/1
Ryan Helminen 2000/1
Shaun Micheel 2000/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

10 to Watch: PGA Championship
By Tom LaMarre, The Sports Xchange

1. Dustin Johnson, United States -- Even though he couldn't hold the lead on the weekend and tied for second in the RBC Canadian Open, Johnson continued a sizzling run with his sixth consecutive finish in the top 10. Included were victories in the U.S. Open, his first major title, and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, to climb to No. 2 in the World Golf Rankings and take the lead in the FedEx Cup standings. Johnson had several big disappointments in the majors before breaking through at Oakmont, but he has finished in the top 10 in six of the last seven Grand Slam events. He also has placed in the top 10 in four of the last six PGA Championships, among his 13 such finishes in the major championships. That includes a tie for fourth in the Masters and a tie for ninth in the Open Championship at Royal Troon this year.

2. Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland -- Nobody has a better record in the PGA Championship in the last seven years than McIlroy. He has claimed two of his four major titles in the final major of the year, winning in 2012 by eight strokes over David Lynn of England at Kiawah Island and in 2014 by one stroke over Phil Mickelson at Valhalla, two of his five top-10 finishes in the event during that span. McIlroy won the Open Championship and the PGA back-to-back two years ago and has placed in the top 10 in eight of the last 11 Grand Slam events he has played. His only victory this year came in the Irish Open after he won three times last year, but he is coming off a tie for fifth in the Open Championship and four other top 10s in his last seven events on the PGA Tour.

3. Phil Mickelson, United States -- Lefty claimed one of his five major titles in the PGA Championship the last time it was played on the Lower Course at Baltusrol in 2005. He built a lead by opening with 67-65 before playing the weekend in 72-72 and holding off Thomas Bjorn of Denmark and Steve Elkington of Australia by one stroke with a brilliant flop shot from the rough to within a foot of the hole for a closing birdie. Mickelson is coming off a runner-up finish behind Henrik Stenson in the Open Championship at Royal Troon two weeks ago, after missing the cut in the first two majors this year. That was his 11th second-place finish in the Grand Slam events, including six in the U.S. Open, the only major he has not won. He also has three runner-up finishes among his six top-10s this season.

4. Henrik Stenson, Sweden -- The big Swede endured a two-year non-winning streak before winning the BMW International Open by three strokes and the Open Championship at Royal Troon by three strokes (over Mickelson with a closing 63) in the last two months. His victory in the third major of the season made him the first Swedish man to win one of the Grand Slam events after he placed in the top 10 nine times in the big four events since 2008. Four of those came in the PGA Championship, including solo third in 2013 at Oak Hill and a tie for third the following year at Valhalla. Stenson showed he was ready to break into the victory column again when he recorded six top-10 finishes on both major tours earlier this year, including runner-up finishes in the Nedbank Challenge and the Shell Houston Open.

5. Jason Day, Australia -- The No. 1 player in the World Golf Rankings will defend his first major title this week in the PGA Championship at Baltusrol. After finishing in the top 10 on nine occasions in the Grand Slam events, including second three times, he posted four rounds of 68 or better to win by three strokes over Jordan Spieth at Whistling Straits. The Aussie has claimed five more victories since, including the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, where he won by four shots over Kevin Chappell. Day has cooled off a bit since, but he tied for 10th in the Masters, tied for eighth in the U.S. Open at Oakmont and tied for 22nd in the Open Championship at Royal Troon this season. He has recorded eight top-10 finishes this year, including a victory in the WGC-Dell Match Play and a tie for third in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

6. Jordan Spieth, United States -- After winning the Masters and the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay last year and becoming No. 1 in the world, then winning three move times through Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January, Spieth has not been quite the same since melting down on the back nine of his Masters defense in April. He did win the Dean & DeLuca Invitational in May, but missed the cut in the Players Championship, tied for 37th in the U.S. Open at Oakmont and tied for 30th in the Open Championship at Royal Troon. However, if gets his balky swing back in sync, you can't dismiss a guy who came close to the Grand Slam last year, also tying for fourth in the Open Championship at St. Andrews and finishing solo second in the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits.

7. Sergio Garcia, Spain -- With Day, Johnson and Stenson winning majors in the last year, Garcia might again be the best player in the world without a title in the Grand Slam events. It's not for lack of trying, because the 36-year-old Spaniard has finished in the top 10 in the major a whopping total of 22 times over the course of his career. Included are ties for fifth in the U.S. Open at Oakmont and the Open Championship at Royal Troon this year. Sergio has finished second in the PGA Championship twice, including his epic chase of champion Tiger Woods all the way to the finish in 1999 at Medinah. He also tied for second, two strokes behind Padraig Harrington in 2008 at Oakland Hills. When the PGA was last played at Baltusrol in 2005, Garcia tied for 23rd.

8. Justin Rose, England -- Even though he won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion, there are those who believe Rose has been an underachiever in the major championships because he has had so many other chances since he was low amateur in the 1998 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale with a tie for fourth. He has 10 other finishes in the top 10 in the Grand Slam events, and has been right there four times in the last two years before coming up empty. Last year, Rose tied for second in the Masters, tied for sixth in the Open Championship at St. Andrews and finished fourth in the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits. He tied for 10th in the Masters this year, so don't be surprised to see his name on the leaderboard and perhaps he's ready to finally claim another major title.

9. Adam Scott, Australia -- Scott is in the same boat as Justin Rose, because when he became the first Aussie to win the Masters in 2013, the predictions were that the major titles would start rolling in, but it hasn't happened. And he's had his chances, finishing in the top 10 in two more majors in 2013, two in 2014 and two last year. But Scott's major season this year has been a disaster, as he tied for 42nd in the Masters, tied for 18th in the U.S. Open and tied for 43rd in the Open Championship. This after he seemed to be headed for a big season when he captured the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship to start the Florida Swing. Scott will be trying to regain that form this week at Baltusrol, where he tied for 40th when the PGA was last played there in 2005.

10. Zach Johnson, United States -- One of six golfers to have won majors at Augusta National and St. Andrews along with Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Seve Ballesteros, Sam Snead and Nick Faldo, Johnson doesn't have the big game of the others but doesn't blink in the spotlight. After missing the cut in the Masters this year, Johnson was on the leaderboard in the last two majors, tying for eighth in the U.S. Open at Oakmont and tying for 12th in the Open Championship at Royal Troon. Zach has three top-10 finishes in the PGA Championship, including a tie for third in 2010 at Whistling Straits, and when the final major of the year was last played on the Lower Course at Baltusrol in 2005, he tied for 17th. After something of a slow season other than the majors, Johnson has finished in the top 20 in his last four tournaments.

 

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Sharp and public bettors alike backing McIlroy at PGA Championship
By PATRICK EVERSON

If it seems like the British Open just ended, well, that’s because it practically just did, wrapping up a week and a half ago. But thanks to golf now being part of the Olympics, the PGA Tour’s next major has an earlier start, as the PGA Championship gets underway Thursday at Baltusrol in Springfield, N.J.

We talked about the final major of the year with a few oddsmakers: Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US; Jeff Sherman, oddsmaker for the Westgate Superbook; Scott Cooley, odds consultant for an offshore site; and an oddsmaker.

It will come as no surprise that the top of the odds board at every shop is dominated by some combination of Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day. At William Hill’s shops in Las Vegas and around Nevada, Johnson and McIlroy are the co-favorites at 8/1, followed by Spieth and Day at 10/1.

“The most tickets are on Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson (15/1),” Bogdanovich said. Johnson won the U.S. Open last month, while Mickelson settled for second at the British Open after a stirring duel with Henrik Stenson. “The third-most popular is Sergio Garcia at 14/1. But the most money is on McIlroy. The money is really tight, but there’s a little bit more on McIlroy.”

That seems to be the case at the Superbook, as well, with the odds making a significant shift in McIlroy’s favor.

“Sharp support for McIlroy came in (Tuesday) night, lowering his odds from 9/1 to now being the 7/1 favorite, with Johnson steadily in second at 8/1,” Sherman said, adding that Day is at 10/1 and Spieth 12/1. “The public has been supporting Mickelson (from 25/1 to 15/1) and Garcia (30/1 to 20/1).”

Cooley said they have seen a shift on the PGA Tour the past few weeks, from Jason Day being the standard bearer as favorite to now Johnson and McIlroy.

“DJ and Rory are garnering a good amount of wagers,” Cooley said of the +805 co-favorites. “With the mid-range odds, Sergio (+2205) is again seeing solid action at our shop. And despite dealing with an injury, Brooks Koepka (+5250) is someone the bettors are backing.”

“Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are in a tug-of-war. They are both at +805,”. “McIlroy has run into some pretty serious competition, as action has been mainly on Johnson.”

Garcia, at 26/1, is also drawing some money, making him a potential liability issue. Sherman said Mickelson currently presents the biggest issue for the Superbook, while William Hill US’s drawbacks are among those further down the betting board.

“We’ve got more liability on some long shots,” Bogdanovich said. “J.B. Holmes is quite popular in the betting, and so is Tony Finau.”

Holmes, coming off a third-place showing at the British Open, was initially listed at 75/1 at William Hill US, but has been bet down to 40/1, while Finau has gone from 125/1 to 60/1. Cooley said Holmes (+5250) and Jason Dufner (+8050) have drawn some sharp action.

Bogdanovich wouldn’t be surprised to see a dark horse jump out and win the PGA Championship.

“Look at the Canadian Open last week,” he said. “Jhonattan Vegas was 100/1, and he won. It happens.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

18 need-to-know golf betting notes for the 2016 PGA Championship
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

If recent history is any indication, the 98th installment of the PGA Championship at Baltusrol in Springfield, New Jersey should feature an exhilarating display of golf more than worthy of the final Major Championship of the year.

Last year at Whistling Straits saw Jason Day fire an incendiary 20-under to defeat Jordan Spieth en route to his first Major Championship. The year before that it was Rory McIlroy outdueling both Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson as the sun went down at Valhalla. And just one year before that epic showdown, Jason Dufner and Jim Furyk went toe-to-toe for 18 jaw-dropping holes at Oak Hill before Dufner emerged victorious with his first Major Championship.

Buckle up, boys and girls. It’s the final Major of the season before we turn our attention to both the Rio Olympics and this fall’s Ryder Cup.

And with that in mind, here are 18 need-to-know betting notes for this week’s PGA Championship.

1. Key Stat #1: Driving Accuracy. Course architect A.W. Tillinghast bunkered the greens at Baltusrol in a manner that makes said putting surfaces very difficult to hit when compared to other PGA venues. Additionally, reports out of Springfield Township, New Jersey, this week indicate areas of very thick rough that will make it challenging to advance the ball. As a result, hitting fairways in a consistent manner from Thursday through Sunday will be of the utmost importance.

Those who rank in the top-20 in Driving Accuracy this season include: Colt Knost (1), Henrik Stenson (6), Zac Blair (7), Jason Bohn (9) and Russell Knox (13).

2. Key Stat #2: Greens In Regulation: As mentioned above, finding the greens at Baltusrol will prove more challenging to those in the field than most venues these golfers play on a regular basis, so we want to identify the TOUR’s top GIR performers before analyzing any potential wagers in regards to this week’s action.

Those who rank in the top-20 in GIR this season include: Henrik Stenson (2), Sergio Garcia (3), Russell Knox (7), Jason Dufner (T8), Keegan Bradley (12), Adam Scott (18) and Rickie Fowler (19).

3. Nine of the last ten PGA Championship winners had won previously on TOUR that season.

4. Weather update: Thursday’s opening round calls for a sweltering high of 94 degrees with a 20 percent chance of precipitation and winds out of the south-southwest at 7 mph. Scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday, with a high of 85 degrees, 60 percent chance of precipitation and winds out of the northeast at 8 mph. Saturday’s weather brings a high of 86 degrees with a 20 percent chance of precipitation and winds out of the northeast at 5 mph. And for Sunday’s final round, take note, scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast once again with a high of 82 degrees, 60 percent chance of precipitation and winds out of the east-southeast at 5 mph.

5. Five of the last six PGA Championship winners did so at the age of 29 or younger, with no champion coming at an age of 37 or older since Vijay Singh in 2004.

This is important to note because of the fact that the PGA Championship is being held much earlier this year due to the Olympics. That means fatigue could play a significant role in determining this weekend’s champion, especially when you consider the heat and humidity that engulfs New Jersey this time of year.

Bottom line: Pay extra attention to the TOUR’s young guns.

6. Each of the last four Major Championship winners (Jason Day, Danny Willett, Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson) was a first-time Major Championship winner. Additionally, 12 of the last 20 PGA Championship winners were first-time Major winners.

Does that mean it’s finally time for Sergio Garcia (25/1) to break through? What about Brandt Snedeker (50/1)? I’d recommend keeping a close eye on both this week.

7. Four-round matchup I love: J.B. Holmes (-125) over Danny Willett. Since shocking the golf world with his upset win at Augusta National back in April, Willett missed the cut at The Players Championship, finished T37 at the United States Open and T53 at the Open Championship. Additionally, Willett has never finished better than T30 at the PGA Championship in four previous tries.

Not only does Baltusrol set up very nicely for Holmes, but he’s had a fine season to date, with a T4 at the Masters, T4 at the Memorial and solo third at the Open Championship just two weeks ago.

8. When the PGA Championship last visited Baltusrol in 2005, three of the top-5 finishers (Steve Elkington at T2, Davis Love III at T4 and Tiger Woods at T4) had previously won this event. Additionally, previous PGA Championship winners Vijay Singh and David Toms finished in the top-10 that year.

That means we should be keeping a close eye on previous winners like Rory McIlroy (8/1), Jason Day (9/1), Phil Mickelson (20/1), Martin Kaymer (60/1) and even long-shots like Jason Dufner (100/1) and Keegan Bradley (100/1).

9. Seven of the past ten PGA Championship winners had previously recorded a top-10 finish in this event. Notable golfers who fit that trend include Dustin Johnson (8/1), Henrik Stenson (15/1), Adam Scott (30/1), Rickie Fowler (30/1) and Matt Kuchar (40/1). Those names are in addition to the above mentioned “previous champions” in No. 6.

10. Four-round matchup I love: Keegan Bradley (-115) over Billy Horschel. Horschel has finished T28 or worse in four of his last five starts, which includes a missed cut at the Open Championship two weeks ago. In addition, his three PGA Championship starts since 2013 have gone missed cut, T58, 25. Bradley won this event in 2011, finished T3 in 2012 and is rounding into form at just the right time after recording a T18 at the Open Championship just two weeks ago.

11. Eight of the last ten PGA Championship winners found themselves within the top-25 of the Official World Golf Ranking at the time of their victory. Additionally, six of the last ten PGA Championship winners found themselves within the top-5 of the Official World Golf Ranking at the time of their victory. CLICK HERE to check out the current OWGR.

12. PROP: Finish position for Phil Mickelson: 20.5 (-110 both ways). The big question as it pertains to Lefty focuses on how much gas he has remaining in the tank following that epic shootout with Henrik Stenson at Royal Troon just two weeks ago. I’m willing to bet the five-time Major Championship winner has enough to crack the top-21 this weekend, as Mickelson won the PGA Championship the last time it was held at Baltusrol back in 2005 with a 4-under, 276.

Take note that Mickelson has finished T21 or better in eight of his last 12 starts at the PGA Championship, which includes each of the last two years.

13. If four-time Major Championship winner Rory McIlroy is going to bust out this season, it’s going to happen this weekend. The 27-year-old has recorded top-five finishes in five of his last nine PGA TOUR events—which includes a T5 at the Open Championship two weeks ago—and has posted the following results in his seven starts at the PGA Championship (results begin in 2009): T3, T3, T64, Win, T8, Win, 17.

McIlroy is currently posted at 9/1 with a finishing position prop of 12.5 (-110 both ways).

14. Four-round matchup I love: Charl Schwartzel (-125) over Hideki Matsuyama. Schwartzel has recorded six consecutive top-25 finishes and has already notched victories in both South Africa and Florida this season, while Matsuyama has missed the cut in three of his last four starts.

15. In terms of recent form, keep the following tidbit in mind: Nine of the last ten PGA Championship winners had recorded a top-10 finish in at least one of their previous two starts before the PGA Championship.

16. Long shot to consider: Jason Dufner (80/1). Dufner has recorded three top-fives in seven career starts at the PGA Championship, which includes a victory at Oak Hill in 2013. He’s also notched three top-8 finishes over his last six PGA TOUR starts, with a T8 at the United States Open and a T22 at the Open Championship.

Dufner also fits the bill when it comes to key trends that help predict PGA Championship winners, as he’s won this event before and has already won at least one event on TOUR this season (CareerBuilder Challenge).

17. Prop: Over/Under winning score of 271.5 (-110 both ways): Since Baltusrol is a Par-70, an under ticket would cash if the eventual champion fires a 9-under or better. And while the PGA Championship is played at a different course each year, it’s worth noting that five of the last six winning scores in this event have featured a champion shooting -10 or better.

With little to no wind and some rain in the forecast, the course could soften up to the point where golfers are encouraged to take aim at the pins. This isn’t a play I love, but I do side with the under in this situation.

18. Be weary of: Bubba Watson (30/1), who has recorded a missed cut, T64 and solo 21st in his last three PGA Championship starts. In addition, Watson has exhibited mediocre form as of late, with his last seven PGA starts featuring the following results: T28, T37, T43, T65, T51, T14 and T39 at the Open Championship.

Watson is the type of golfer who is always capable of catching lightning in a bottle on any given week, but bettors shouldn’t put too much faith in his stock for this event.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 PGA Championship Picks with Golf Odds with Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

There were two players head-and-shoulders above the rest at least week's Canadian Open in world No. 1 Jason Day and No. 2 Dustin Johnson. I didn't think either would win, though, and they didn't. That honor well to fairly unknown Venezuelan Jhonattan Vegas for his first PGA Tour victory since 2011. He will also represent his country in Rio.

Vegas birdied his final three holes on Sunday at Glen Abbey to shoot a final-round 8-under 64 and finish at 12 under overall, one shot better than Johnson (final-round 69), Martin Laird (67) and someone named Jon Rahm (67). The previous week at the Barbasol Championship opposite the British Open, Vegas had a six-shot lead entering the weekend but lost by three. He started Sunday at the Canadian Open five shots out of the lead.

Brandt Snedeker and Canadian amateur Jared du Toit were in the final pairing on Sunday with du Toit the obvious breakout star of the tournament. Both shot a final-round 71, with Snedeker finishing fifth and du Toit ninth.

My pick to win last week was Jim Furyk, and I just missed him at least for a Top 10 as he was 13th at 8 under, one shot from ninth. I did get Matt Kuchar at +130 for a Top 10 as he was ninth. I thought Day would get a Top 10 but he was T14 at 7 under. A second-round 76 really killed him.

So now the pros head to Baltusrol Golf Club (the Lower Course) in Springfield, New Jersey, about 20 miles from New York City, for the PGA Championship (Vegas got a spot in it with his victory). If you are scratching your head wondering why it feels the year's final major championship is really early this year, that's because it is. PGA officials moved it up a few weeks because golf returns to the Summer Olympics. Normally, the PGA Tour wants to have one signature event per month in the heart of the golf season and before football steals away all the attention: Masters in April, the Players Championship in May, the U.S. Open in June, the British Open in July and the PGA Championship in August. I guess the Olympics will have to suffice this August, although it seems most of the world's top players are passing on catching the Zika virus in Brazil.

Baltusrol is a very exclusive private club that has hosted seven U.S. Opens and one prior PGA Championship. That latter event was in 2005, and Phil Mickelson won at 4-under 276. Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington were a shot back and Tiger Woods two out -- it has now been made official that Woods will not play a PGA Tour event this season. It's the first time as a pro that Woods will not play any majors in a calendar year.

The PGA Championship always touts itself as having the strongest field of any tournament each year, and all but three of the world's Top 100 are set to play this week. The defending champion is Day. He won his first major at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin with a record-setting score of 20 under, the lowest under-par total ever in a major. That was matched by Sweden's Henrik Stenson two weeks ago in winning the British Open at Royal Troon. No player has repeated in this event since Tiger in 2007. An American has won this just twice since then: Keegan Bradley in 2011 and Jason Dufner in 2013. Dating to Day's win at last year's PGA, the past four major winners are all first-timers.

Golf Odds: PGA Championship Favorites

The scorching-hot Johnson is the +800 favorite. He hasn't finished worse than T9 at his past six events this year with two wins. That's crazy. Johnson was seventh at this tournament last year, his fourth Top 10 in the event since 2009.

Rory McIlroy, winless on the PGA Tour this season, is +900. If you believe in the San Francisco Giants' even-year success of late, perhaps Rory is the right pick this week as he won the PGA in 2012 & '14. McIlroy had Top 10s this year at the Masters and British Open but wasn't ever a threat to win those.

Day (+1000), Jordan Spieth (+1400) and Stenson (+1400) round out the favorites. Day had Top 10s at the Masters and U.S. Open this year. Spieth was a runner-up to Day at the 2015 PGA by three shots. He didn't play well at either the U.S. Open or British Open this year, however. Stenson shot that amazing major championship record-tying 63 on Sunday at Royal Troon to win the British Open. Mickelson, who was second to Stenson, is +1800 to repeat at Baltusrol.

Golf Odds: PGA Championship Picks

For a Top 10, I like Johnson (-125), McIlroy (even), Bubba Watson (+300) and Rickie Fowler (+350). Head-to-head, go Mickelson (-140) over Adam Scott (+110), Stenson (-110) over Spieth (-120), McIlroy (-110) over Johnson (-120), Snedeker (-115) over Branden Grace (-115), Kuchar (-115) over Patrick Reed (-115), and Fowler (-120) over Watson (-110).

So the question I'm going to ask myself is whether to pick another first-time major winner. I tend to think McIlroy will win to salvage his season. But I'm going to throw some money on Fowler at +3000. True, he's not playing great at the moment with just one Top 10 and three missed cuts in his past three tournaments. But he was close to winning the PGA two years ago. There's also a prop of Stenson, Mickelson, Watson and Fowler at +550 vs. the field (-1000). That might be the smarter bet. You can also get DJ & McIlroy at +350 vs. the field (-550). That's a tempting hedge.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 5
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 5
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 5
-- Road teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 4
-- Road teams posted a 3-0-1 ATS record in Week 4
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4

Team Betting Notes

-- Ottawa (3-1-1) suffered its first loss of the season. That part isn't so shocking, as they were due to lose eventually. However, it was WHO they lost to. Saskatchewan (1-3) finally earned a win in its fourth try, edging the RedBlacks 30-29 at home. It was the third consecutive 'over' result for the Roughriders.

-- The RedBlacks are now just 1-1-1 SU against the West Division, and they're 0-2 ATS in their past two against the other division. The 'over' result was their first since Week 1, snapping a 2-0-1 'under' streak.

-- Edmonton (2-2) was tripped up 37-31 at home against Hamilton (3-2), as the Eskimos defense let them down again. So far the Esks have allowed 36 or more points in three of their first four games. As such, it's no surprise the 'over' is 3-1 through Edmonton's four games.

-- The Tigers-Cats haven't been able to figure it out at home, but they certainly have been comfortable on the road. The Ti-Cats are 0-2 SU/ATS at home, and 3-0 SU/ATS on the road this season. Remember that Aug. 3 at Winnipeg, and Aug. 13 at B.C. Lions, in their next two outings.

-- The Blue Bombers have been terrible, going 1-4 SU/ATS through five outings. They're especially poor at home, as the Bombers are 0-3 SU/ATS while averaging just 16.0 points per game and allowing 25.0 points per contest in Winnipeg.

-- Toronto (3-2) dumped Montreal (1-3), as the Alouettes haven't won since June 24 in Winnipeg. The Alouettes have had a power outage on offense, averaging just 12.3 points per game over the past three, all non-covers. The 'under' is also 3-1 this season for Montreal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
By David Schwab

The early race for a title in each CFL division tightened up with last week’s results. Calgary improved its position in the West standings with last Thursday’s 33-18 victory against Winnipeg as a five-point road favorite. On Friday night, Saskatchewan stunned Ottawa 30-29 as a 6 ½-point underdog at home to post its first win of the year.

This past Saturday’s action in the CFL featured a big interdivision showdown between Hamilton and Edmonton with the Tiger-Cats prevailing as four-point road underdogs in a 37-31 upset. Week 5 closed things out on Monday night with Toronto knocking off Montreal 30-17 as a 4 ½-point favorite at home. Here is a look at Week 6 in the CFL.

Thursday, July 28

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -9 ½
Total: 54 ½

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers have dug themselves an early hole and now there are some question marks at the quarterback position after Matt Nichols replaced Drew Willy late in the game last week against Calgary. Nichols was able to find Weston Dressler with a scoring strike to close the deficit to within eight points, but Winnipeg’s defense allowed the Stampeders to expand their lead to 15 points by the closing gun.

Edmonton has already lost half as many games as it did all last season in its run to a Grey Cup title. You cannot place all that much blame on the Eskimos’ offense for last week’s loss after building a 31-20 lead over Hamilton heading into the fourth quarter. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly ended that game with 354 yards passing and three touchdown throws while completing an impressive 76.2 percent of his 42 passing attempts.

Betting Trends

The Blue Bombers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Eskimos and they have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against Edmonton. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.

Friday, July 29

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Roughriders posted their first straight-up victory of the year in dramatic fashion on game-winning 53-yard field goal with just over a minute to play. The biggest storyline in last week’s upset was the play of Mitchell Gale in his first CFL start at quarterback for an injured Darian Durant. Gale threw for 354 yards and a score including eight completions to Naaman Roosevelt for 182 yards. Darian remains questionable to return to action this Friday night.

Montreal gave up 21 points in the second quarter of Monday night’s rout to help seal its third loss in four games. The Alouettes have been outscored 103-59 in those first four contests and the prospect for any kind of quick turnaround does not look good. Kevin Glenn was back under center for Montreal and despite the fact that he completed 24-of-28 attempts for 285 yards, he still could not get his team in the end zone more than once through the air.

Betting Trends

The Alouettes have covered ATS in six of the last eight meetings in this interdivision clash and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 16 of the last 21 meetings in Montreal.


British Columbia Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-1-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Lions have carved out the early lead in the West Division behind an offense that is averaging over 400 total yards a game with a solid balance between the pass and the run. They have also been stingy on the other side of the ball behind a defense that has only allowed an average of 18.3 points a game. They are coming off a bye week following a 40-27 victory against Saskatchewan in Week 4 as 1 ½-point underdogs on the road.

Calgary has now covered the spread in its last three games with the total going OVER in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell continued to light things up through the air with 310 yards passing and three touchdown throws in last week’s win against Winnipeg. He completed 70.7 percent of his 41 attempts while connecting with seven different receivers. Jerome Messam paced the Stampeders’ ground game with 65 yards on 13 carries.

Betting Trends

Head-to-head in this West Division rivalry, the Lions won the first meeting this season 20-18 as 2 ½-point home underdogs, but they have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against the Stampeders. The total has gone OVER the closing line in five of the last seven meetings in Calgary.

Sunday, July 31

Toronto Argonauts (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

Toronto has now won three of its last four games both SU and against the spread including wins on the road against Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Credit Ricky Ray for Monday night’s win after throwing for three touchdowns. Ray left the game in the fourth quarter with a leg injury and right now it looks like Logan Kilgore might get the start on Sunday after coming into this past Monday’s game as his replacement.

The RedBlacks will look to quickly bounce back from their first SU loss of the season, but they may have to do it without the services of their starting quarterback Trevor Harris. He left last week’s game early in the first quarter with a leg injury and his status for Sunday remains up in the air. Harris has been one of the CFL’s top passers this season in both yards (1,499) and touchdowns (9). If he cannot go, we may see the return of Henry Burris at quarterback after missing the first five games with a hand injury.

Betting Trends

Ottawa drew first blood in this season’s series with a 30-20 victory on July 13 as a one-point road favorite. Toronto still has a SU 4-2 edge against the RedBlacks over the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Free Pick: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Edmonton Eskimos
By: Dave Schwab

Week 6 of the 2016 CFL regular season gets underway this Thursday night with a West Division matchup between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Edmonton Eskimos. Sportsbooks have listed the Eskimos as nine-point home favorites and the CFL betting line for the total in this game has been set at 54.5. Kickoff from Commonwealth Stadium is slated for 9 p.m. (ET).

It has been a tough start for the 1-4 Blue Bombers after losing six of their final seven games last season to finish 5-13 overall. They are 1-3-1 against the spread so far with the total staying UNDER in three of the five games. Last Thursday, Winnipeg lost to Calgary 33-18 as a five-point underdog at home with the total actually going OVER 50.5-point closing line.

Drew Willy has started the first five games for Winnipeg at quarterback, but the Bombers turned to Matt Nichols for a spark in last week's loss after Willy struggled to move the team downfield for much of the game. Nichols did toss a touchdown pass to Weston Dressler to close the gap to eight points late in that contest, but it was still too little too late to avoid a fourth loss in five games.

In the current CFL footballl betting odds, the Eskimos are a big favorite.

Blue Bombers (+9.5)
Edmonton Eskimos (- 9.5)

Over 56 points (-110)
Under 56 points (-110)

Edmonton is also coming off a tough loss in a 37-31 setback against Hamilton last week as a five-point home favorite. The Eskimos are now an even 2-2 straight-up on the year with a 1-3 record ATS. The total went OVER the closing 53.5-point line against the Tiger-Cats and it has gone OVER in three of their first four games.

The Eskimos brought a 31-20 lead into the fourth quarter of last Saturday's game, but they had no answer for Tiger-Cats' quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who torched this secondary for 391 yards passing and three touchdown strikes that helped produce a 17-0 fourth quarter run. On the other side of the ball, Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly ended the day with 354 yards passing and three touchdown throws while completing 76.2 of his 42 attempts so you would have to pin that loss on the defense

Edmonton brings a five-game SU winning streak over Winnipeg into Thursday night's contest and it is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five home games against the Blue Bombers. I am looking for the Eskimos to bounce back in a big way to keep both of these winning streaks alive.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 6 CFL games

Winnipeg (1-4) @ Edmonton (2-2)– Bombers (+3.5) lost 20-16 at home to Edmonton two weeks ago, giving up winning TD in last 1:00 in game where Eskimos outgained them 517-347. Winnipeg scored only 3 points in second half. Edmonton won last seven series games, winning last seven here, last four by combined score of 140-29. Eskimos are 2-2 after blowing 24-6 halftime lead in horrific home loss to Hamilton last week- two of their four games went to OT. Under is 3-1-1 in Winnipeg games this year; three of four Edmonton games went over.



— Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Edmonton Eskimos (-9.5, 53.5)
— Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Montreal Alouettes (-1, 50)
— BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders (-5, 49)
— Toronto Argonauts @ Ottawa RedBlacks (-8, 48)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

It is going to be a star studded weekend with all three winners of the Triple Crown races as well as champion Beholder in action, and all four could end up facing each other this fall in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator was originally being pointed toward the $600,000 Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga but now will run Sunday instead, taking on Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist in the $1 million Haskell Invitational (G1). Entries come out today.

Belmont Stakes winner Creator is in the Jim Dandy and will take on Destin again, the two separated by just a nose last out in the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

Also in the field is Mohayman, who makes his first start since running fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) back in May. The colt started his career winning his first five career starts and was the early betting favorite for the Run for the Roses before suffering his first defeat in the Florida Derby (G1) where he ran fourth to Nyquist.

At Del Mar on Saturday, Beholder will be the heavy favorite in the $300,000 Clement Hirsch (G1), a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race for the Distaff.

Among her four foes is Stellar Wind, who she beat by 1 ¼ lengths in the Vanity (G1) on June 4 at Santa Anita going a mile. Beholder has now won eight races in a row.

We have racing at Saratoga six days a week, with Tuesday our only off day.


Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Clm $40,000 (1:00 ET)
#4 Zubi Zubi Zu 8-5
#1 Comet Sixty Two 8-1
#5 Moon Medal 2-1
#2 Dark Rain 12-1

Analysis: Zubi Zubi Zu beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out at Churchill Downs in her second start off a three-month break for the Stidham barn. The mare has won four times on turf including beating Alw-3 optional claimers at Fair Grounds last November. She makes her third start of her current form cycle. The price will be short but this gal looks well spotted.

Comet Sixty Two was a game winner versus $25,000 claimers last out at Belmont Park going seven furlongs and now steps up a notch and stretches out to a route of ground. She was claimed out of the race by the Barbara barn that is 1 for 17 first off the claim. She has only routed once on turf, a fifth place finish in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf. She comes in here sharp and is going to be a decent price.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 John Morrissey (5:40 ET)
#8 Drama King 6-1
#5 Weekend Hideaway 2-1
#2 Moonlight Song 7-2
#6 Crackerjack Jones 6-1

Analysis: Drama King came with a seven wide run to rally for third beaten two lengths against $80,000 optional claimers last out at Belmont Park. Two back this guy rallied for third behind the favorite in here Weekend Hideaway, beaten three lengths. The RRod runner has one start over the main track here, beating state bred Alw-1 foes last summer. The colt is going to get a sharp early pace to run at and horses coming from off the pace have fared well over the Spa main track here over the first four days of the meeting.

Weekend Hideaway has won three of his last four starts, taking the state bred Commentator last out in the mud going a mile at Belmont Park. He has won three of his six trips over the main track here including winning this race back in 20104. The Serpe trainee owns solid early and mid pace numbers and cuts back to a sprint. There is enough early speed to keep him company early in this spot. He returns here off a two-month break and the main knock is going to be the likely short price.

Moonlight Song took the field gate to wire to win this race last year and now returns off a year layoff for the Baker barn that is 17% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He has put in a couple of bullet works for his return, the last over the training track here on July 22. he has run well fresh in the past.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 2,5,6,8
TRI: 5,8 / 2,5,6,8 / 2,5,6,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #1 Comet Sixty Two 8-1
R1: #2 Dark Rain 12-1
R2: #5 Croke Park 8-1
R2: #8 Beyond Belief 20-1
R3: #7 James Lane 8-1
R4: #3 Shadow Rider 8-1
R4: #1 Gone Local 8-1
R5: #7 Discreet Encounter 8-1
R5: #4 Mr. Massena 10-1
R7: #3 Nubin Ridge 8-1
R10: #9 Spun Copper 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Scioto Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 8:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$12000 - HORSES AND GELDINGS NON WINNERS OF 6 PMRLT TO BE CLAIMED FOR $22,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 URBAN RENEWAL 4/1



# 4 THUNDER STRUCK 3/1



# 9 KOVIE 10/1



URBAN RENEWAL will not be denied the trip to the winner's circle in here. This fine animal may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise. This solid standardbred will have to be a wager, based on the excellent driver/trainer win stat. THUNDER STRUCK - Could very well provide us a trip to the winner's circle based on great recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 81. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the bike one of the top drivers in win percentage the last 30 days. KOVIE - This contest may be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage TrackMaster speed fig will prove that. One of the most competitive win percentages with this driver-handler make this gelding dangerous.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 10:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 66 - Purse:$8000 - NEW YORK SIRED ONLY - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 RICOS REVENGE 3/1



# 4 FINANCIAL FOCUS 5/2



# 8 CRAZIVILLE 4/1



We've got a gut feel RICOS REVENGE is going to get the victory. It's chancy to consider solely based on class, but this gelding has among the most respectable class stats of the group of animals. FINANCIAL FOCUS - If performance in the most recent race is any indicator, this interesting entrant will have a very really good shot in this contest. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. CRAZIVILLE - Positively think these two have a good thing going. Spagnola sending the horse out means a formidable chance to get the ultimate prize. With a excellent driver, who has won at a great 19 percent rate the past month, this has to be one of the top picks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED). MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 CORPORATE CHAPEL 4/1


# 3 BIG MAN STAN 5/2


# 6 OTTO SHOOTIE 6/1


CORPORATE CHAPEL looks strong to best this field. This racer could upset this field of horses at a nice price. In this field, this horse is at the top in earnings per start in dirt route contests. A solid 91 avg class fig may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group. BIG MAN STAN - Bravo has this gelding racing well and is a respectable pick based on the formidable speed figures earned in route races lately. Conditioner boasts solid win figures at this distance and surface. OTTO SHOOTIE - Ran a strong last race. Should be carefully examined here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 77

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 RANSON 7/2


# 1 SAN NICOLO 8/1


# 4 BIG COULEE 15/1


RANSON looks quite good to best this field. Should be considered here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Earned a formidable Equibase Speed Figure last time out. SAN NICOLO - Could provide positive profits based on respectable recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 66. Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the means to a turnaround. BIG COULEE - Respectable gamble today with second time Lasix.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:54pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,100 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ECOM (ML=6/1)
#3 GINGERS HERO (ML=6/1)
#2 NORTHWEST PASSAGE (ML=8/1)


ECOM - Traditional angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Today could be the day. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a strong contest on June 29th. Houghton gets a break on this thoroughbred carrying 6 pounds less than last out. Could make the difference in this event. He has the top EPS (earnings per start). Check out this animal. GINGERS HERO - Looking at today's class figure, this campaigner is meeting an easier group than last time out at Penn National. NORTHWEST PASSAGE - Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a good effort last out within the last month. Just view his most recent speed rating, 79. That one looks good in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 COVER OF DARKNESS (ML=8/5), #1 FIELD SENSE (ML=2/1), #4 MID LIFE CRISIS (ML=6/1),

COVER OF DARKNESS - Very long layoff, then came back and finished fourth. Tough to expect much better today. Has been beaten as the favorite back to back. A repeat is probably in store. FIELD SENSE - Would have to improve off that 12th place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. MID LIFE CRISIS - Hard to recommend any equine with deteriorating Equibase speed figs of 86/75/64. Didn't make up ground at all on Jun 29th. Hard to wager on in today's event at the expected odds.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ECOM - The event on June 29th had a class rating of 95 while today's class rating is 85. I got to bet this one on such a big drop.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #5 ECOM to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:59pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 SOUL ALLEGIANCE (ML=7/2)
#5 CIVIL DISPUTE (ML=5/2)


SOUL ALLEGIANCE - Faced tougher last out at Belterra Park. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of contenders in this race. A campaigner coming back this soon after a good effort is a good signal. I know he'll be way back, but he's got a fabulous move turning for home. This gelding's last speed figure garnered on Jul 10th is at the top in last race speed figs. CIVIL DISPUTE - The ROI when Murgia and Gorder get together is outstanding. Was in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race at Churchill Downs last time around the track. That clash had a class number of 77 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain strong challenger.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 RANGER SAM (ML=9/2), #2 BOURBON DYNASTY (ML=5/1), #7 ALL WESTERN JAZZ (ML=6/1),

RANGER SAM - The result of fifth in the last race shows me that this horse may be losing physical conditioning. BOURBON DYNASTY - Didn't close any ground whatsoever on Jul 12th. Hard to play today at the expected odds. ALL WESTERN JAZZ - 6/1 is not enough of a value to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back outings. Finished tenth in his most recent performance with a common speed fig. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CIVIL DISPUTE - I always scan for the equine that is tops in earnings per start. If he meets my fundamentals I make a wager.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#8 SOUL ALLEGIANCE is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:18 PM EASTERN POST


The John Morrissey Stakes

6½ FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#2 MOONLIGHT SONG
#5 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY
#6 CRACKERJACK JONES
#8 DRAMA KING

The race for New York-bred sprinters, inaugurated in 2004, recognizes John Morrissey, the former champion bare-knuckle boxer and gambler from Troy, N.Y., who created Saratoga Race Course in 1863 with the help of William Travers, John Hunter, and Leonard Jerome. Although not an official member of the Saratoga Association, Morrissey ran the meet when it moved across Union Avenue to its current location. Brought to the United States from Ireland by his parents as a toddler, Morrissey died in 1878 in a room at the Adelphi Hotel in downtown Saratoga Springs at the age of 47. Here in the 13th renewal of this stakes test, #2 MOONLIGHT SONG is the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at, or about, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five outings, including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. #5 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY takes a class drop (-2) and has also posted a trio of "Circle Trips" in his last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 7/28 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 4,5,8/1,6/3,5/7/4,5,6,9 = $9.60

EARLY PICK 4: 7/4,5,6,9/5,6,9/3,6 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 3,6/1,4,5,7/2,6/2,3 = $32

MEET STATS: 240 - 690 / $1276.70 BEST BETS: 40 - 65 / $126.90

SPOT PLAYS: 14 - 63 / $76.60

Best Bet: HIGHLAND TARTAN (4th)

Spot Play: BLACK JACK PAT (9th)


Race 1

(4) AGENT DINOZZO got his act together last week and trotted the entire mile with a good result. He's risky but if he trots the entire way here, he can beat these. (8) CHEER FOR THE CATS trotted a mile two back that's good enough to win this. He needs to stay flat though, obviously. (5) ZLATAN will take a lot of action on the class drop, but he's disappointed as a heavy chalk in these classes several times before. I'll try to beat him here. (6) GROUPIE DOLL is capable of a better finish vs. this group.

Race 2

(1) IDEAL WHEEL made a strong first-over move to win his debut and he stands an excellent chance of doubling up here, likely at a short price. (5) YOGI BAYAMA gets Filion back here and should be the main danger. (2) SOME ATTITUDE couldn't close vs. a sharp winner last time, but he should get a better trip here and take a big piece of this. (3) BIG BAD BILL looks next best and can complete the super.

Race 3

(3) ROSBERG is unbeaten in Grassroots competition so far and has displayed the best late speed in this field. He can keep the streak going here. (5) TOUGHER THAN EVER powered away late to score in his second start. He is the main threat racing from close range. (6) NOBLECREST is from a dam that has produced several winners. He can take a small share at a minimum here. (1) ZORGWIJK ROCKET was 2nd to the choice last time and can make the ticket.

Race 4

(7) HIGHLAND TARTAN projects to get an easier trip up front here and can take these all the way this time. (6) HEMINGWAY closed well last time in his first start off the claim - albeit aided by a slowing late pace. He should contend here, too, though. (1) SCOTTY MACH N has been hot out of town and can sit a good trip and take a share. (4) PUTNAMS NEW YEAR should improve here returning quicker.

Race 5

(9) RODEO SPORTS - the first foal of millionaire dam Moving Pictures - shaved 4 seconds off her time in her second qualifier and looks ready to roll for an outfit that has been sending everything ready. (4) HURRICANE BEACH - 1/2-brother to the very fast Hurrikane Kingcole - has been finishing off his miles quickly while preparing for this debut and is another that looks ready. (6) TIGERS WAY was close to upsetting at a big price in his debut. He can take a share here. (5) TUXEDO BAY is yet another making his debut that can challenge here.

Race 6

(6) WARAWEE SHIPSHAPE should use his good early speed to get position and is just one of many that could win this wide-open Grassroots dash. (5) MORE THAN MAJESTIC was second to a good colt in his debut and should be used in the Pick 4. (9) WILLIE WONKA raced much better in his debut than in his qualifiers; using. (3) A J RICOCHET could slip onto the tri or super ticket here at a price off a following trip.

Race 7

(6) GIVE EM HECK won when claimed by a once sharp outfit off another. He can double up here and may get taken again. (3) P L DANGEROUS was a decent second to the choice and he should get a good trip here; using. (2) HP BLACK SHADOW can threaten if he stays flat this time. (1) LUMIERE should follow along close to the front and stick around for a slice.

Race 8

(5) THEMANOFMYDREAMS comes in off two strong wins out of town and should be able to turn up his game here and increase his winning streak to three. (4) KITARO looks next best off his powerful Grassroots win at Grand River. (1) MAJESTIC STREAK is facing easier here but missed some time; tough call. (7) MAGIC NIGHT goes for a trainer/driver that excels with young trotters. He will likely figure this one out soon; beware.

Race 9

(2) BLACK JACK PAT has faced a bearcat in both of her starts and should appreciate this much easier company; top call. (6) SOUTHWIND GEO is another that should appreciate the company here in addition to the short field; using. (5) TOUCHING THOUGHT made a big move then tired in the opening leg of this series. She can improve off that effort. (3) OHELLO BLUE CHIP is another that faces weaker than she has been and she should get a good trip near the front here and take home a share.

Race 10

(3) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE should get a much easier trip here vs. a weaker group and she will take beating in the finale. (2) GLORIOUS DELIGHT closed into an accelerating pace vs. better and she should be heard from here. (4) QUEEN OF THE JUNGLE continues to show improvement and she rarely gets bet. Toss her in your exotic wagers here. (1) SPORTS EXPERT is another getting class relief and she should show speed then stick around for a slice. (7) ICTHELIGHT HANOVER has upset potential here and should be considered for wider Pick 4 tickets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 7/28 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 180 - 762 / $1,151.80

BEST BETS: 22 - 74 / $113.50

Best Bet: SO BAD IM GOOD (8th)

Spot Play: UPFRONTWHOSURLADY (4th)


Race 1

(4) JC KINGDOM comes off two seconds in a row, which is an indication he's ready to put his best foot forward. (6) FRATERNITY closed down the center of the track to get the job done last out. (1) BIG BAMBU flashed speed in his Tioga finale and the rail could help his cause.

Race 2

(6) MY IDEAL HANOVER might have been used up in the early stages last time out. Pacing mare can take this with a relaxing trip. (7) NIPPY W HANOVER scored in her last two outings; post hurts but she is very capable. (5) AMERICAN ALIVE is knocking at the door based on her last two tries.

Race 3

(5) CRUISINWITHMYBABY led most of the way but was caught in deep stretch by Nippy W Hanover last week. Mare will try to atone for that lost for team Sears/Allard. (4) MISS MACHQUEEN put in a mild rally for show honors last time out. (2) FOX VALLEY HERMIA showed good speed at Philly recently and could have a say in the outcome.

Race 4

(2) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY leaves the 8-hole for a cozy post. Clearly she has good early zip and now Bartlett has the assignment; the pick. (5) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N got the job done via the pocket last time out; threat again. (3) I DO IT MYSELF was sent down the road in her last trip for all the glory.

Race 5

(4) CAROBBEAN PACETRY takes a drop in class and the move to the 4-hole could have this pacing mare greet the cameraman for pictures tonight. (2) CLARA BEA closed strongly to lose glory by only a length; factor. (1) THE RIGHT MOVE moved too early for the lead at the half mile pole and tired badly in the stretch drive last time.

Race 6

(2) HER OWN LAND gets class and post relief. The good news is this pacing mare knows how to get the job done and a favorable trip can make it happen. (3) SUMMER SNOW raced evenly in her last trip to grab fourth money; main danger. (6) CHEYENNE ROBIN should appreciate the drop in class; not out of this.

Race 7

(4) URBANITE HANOVER has put in two sharp efforts in a row at the Meadowlands. Gelding moves his trade to Yonkers and good to see Bartlett at the controls; big factor. (1) CROMBIE A was dull at Pocono last out but is back at the hilltop where he got the job done on July 7th. (2) SKYFUL OF LIGHTERS is knocking at the door based on his last three outings; watch out.

Race 8

(4) SO BAD IM GOOD showed signs of life in his last try and this gelding has hit the board in 6 of 12 trips to the post. Now trainer Bamond calls on Mr. Brennan to get this pacing gelding back to the winner's circle. (5) SHADIOS is a speedy gelding that ran out of gas in his last start. He will try to take these all the way again; maybe. (3) ELRAMA N posted an easy victory down the road against lesser company last out.

Race 9

(2) INTREPID HALL takes a slight drop in class and leaves the 7-hole. Gelding figures to get a much better trip and with a return to his July 12th trip, it could be game over for the rest. (1) OHOKA TEXAS N has tactical speed and figures to be right in the mix. (8) PAMS LEGACY moves down the scale but will have to make some noise from the 8-hole; possible.

Race 10

(1) COBBLE BEACH posted an even finish in his last try and now this 6-year-old draws the fence and Bartlett is back in the sulky. They both teamed up for a wire to window score two starts ago; gets the call. (4) LUCKY MCTRUCKY should be right in the mix based on his last two starts. (7) REAL FLIGHT has wheeled off three scores in a row. Post hurts but the four-peat is not out of the question.

Race 11

(1) ON THE PODIUM poured it on turning for home en route to an easy victory last time out. Now the trotting gelding moves up in class but the good news is the 7-year-old draws the fence; ready for the double score. (2) FORTUNISTA was very game in her last start but could not get to the winner, Soul Train; main danger. (3) AUSPICIOUS HANOVER showed good speed in his Pocono finale and could move forward off that effort; maybe.

Race 12

(1) VILLAGE JESSICA moves to the rail and clearly has fine speed. In her last trip to the post she missed glory by only a neck. She can boss these at her best. (2) DEUCES FOR CHARITY rallied strongly to lose win honors by only 3/4 length; threat. (3) ROCKAROUND SUE gets class relief and that might help her cause; we shall see.