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[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 14:00

England

v

Wales

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		4/7	3	6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
AWHLHWHWHWHD​ Most recent​	1 - 0 2 - 0 1 - 0 2 - 0	HWHLHDALALNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Six of the last seven meetings have featured fewer than three goals

EXPERT VERDICT: It looks like being a tense encounter in Lens but despite the fact England need to go on the front foot following their draw against Russia, Wales should prove difficult to break down. Roy Hodgson's outfit should just sneak past their Group B rivals but don't expect a lot of goals.

RECOMMENDATION: England to win 1-0
1


REFEREE: Felix Brych STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 17:00

Ukraine

v

N Ireland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		13/20	11/4	11/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
ADNWHWNWNWNL​ Most recent​	0 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 1 1 - 0	HWADHWHWADNL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Just four of Northern Ireland's last 17 games have featured more than two goals

EXPERT VERDICT: Northern Ireland need to be more positive than they were in their opening game against Poland, but they could be frustrated again. There was plenty for Ukraine to be optimistic about despite their 2-0 defeat to Germany and their pace from wide areas can cause Michael O'Neill's side plenty of problems.

RECOMMENDATION: Ukraine
3


REFEREE: Pavel Kralovec STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 20:00

Germany

v

Poland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		8/15	10/3	6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
ALHLHWHLNWNW​ Most recent​	3 - 1 0 - 2 0 - 0 2 - 2	HWHWHWHLHDNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Germany have lost two of their last 27 competitive matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Their win over Northern Ireland probably means a point against Germany will be enough for Poland to progress, but that's easier said than done. The Poles did beat Germany in qualifying but Joachim Low's side are a different prospect when it really matters and should win comfortably.

RECOMMENDATION: Germany-Germany double result
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REFEREE: Bjorn Kuipers STADIUM:

 

[Scott602]

Steve Merril GOY please TIA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds to win 2016 U.S. Open

Oddsmakers continue to get ready for the 2016 U.S. Open, which takes place from Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, PA between June 16 and June 19.

The defending champion is Jordan Spieth, who won last year’s event from Chambers Bay Golf Club in Washington.

Spieth is listed as a 17/2 betting choice (Bet $100 to win $850) to repeat at the Open. Rory McIlroy is also has 17/2 odds to win at Oakmont.

The last part of golf's "Big Three" is Jason Day and he's listed as the 7/1 favorite.


Odds to win 2016 U.S. Open (6/16/16)
Jason Day 7/1
Jordan Spieth 17/2
Rory McIlroy 17/2
Dustin Johnson 16/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
Adam Scott 22/1
Bubba Watson 28/1
Danny Willett 30/1
Henrik Stenson 30/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Phil Mickelson 35/1
Branden Grace 40/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Paul Casey 50/1
Sergio Garcia 50/1
Jim Furyk 60/1
Jimmy Walker 60/1
Matt Kuchar 60/1
Charl Schwartzel 65/1
Justin Thomas 65/1
Martin Kaymer 65/1
Zach Johnson 65/1
J.B. Holmes 70/1
Kevin Kisner 75/1
Billy Horschel 80/1
Graeme McDowell 80/1
Lee Westwood 80/1
Marc Leishman 80/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 80/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Byeong Hun An 100/1
Ian Poulter 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
Bernd Wiesberger 125/1
Brendon Todd 125/1
Chris Kirk 125/1
Danny Lee 125/1
David Lingmerth 125/1
Hunter Mahan 125/1
Kevin Na 125/1
Luke Donald 125/1
Ryan Palmer 125/1
Victor Dubuisson 125/1
Webb Simpson 125/1
Charley Hoffman 140/1
Gary Woodland 140/1
Francesco Molinari 150/1
Graham Delaet 150/1
Harris English 150/1
Jamie Donaldson 150/1
John Senden 150/1
Keegan Bradley 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Russell Henley 150/1
Ryan Moore 150/1
Steve Stricker 150/1
Andy Sullivan 175/1
Anirban Lahiri 175/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Ben Martin 200/1
Cameron Tringale 200/1
Ernie Els 200/1
Geoff Ogilvy 200/1
Nick Watney 200/1
Padraig Harrington 200/1
Tommy Fleetwood 200/1
Alexander Levy 250/1
George Coetzee 250/1
Joost Luiten 250/1
Marc Warren 250/1
Matt Every 300/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 300/1
Steven Bowditch 300/1
Thongchai Jaidee 300/1

Odds Subject to Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

U.S. Open Preview
By Dan Daly

“It’s not just the biggest golf tournament in the world; it’s the most democratic. I mean it's open. Anyone's got a shot at it. You just gotta get past a local and a sectional qualifier, and unlike Doral or Colonial or the A.T.T., they can't keep you out. They can't ask you if you're a garbage man or a bean-picker or a driving range pro whose check is signed by a stripper. You qualify, you're in.”

Lord knows I love Tin Cup, but with all due respect to Roy MacAvoy there is a big difference between qualifying for the US Open and actually having a chance to win…especially this year. After the 2015 US Open was played on a course that was more appropriate for windmills and a clown’s mouth, we finally get back to a real US Open venue. And not just any US Open venue, arguably the hardest golf course in the world. Not even the incompetent Mike Davis and the USGA can screw this place up…although I’m sure they will try. This is a place that prides itself on having higher rough and faster greens for their annual Member/Guest than they do at the US Open.

In the eight previous US Open’s at Oakmont, only 19 players have finished the tournament under par (with 8 of those coming in 1994 alone). Three times nobody has finished the week under par at all, including the last US Open at Oakmont in 2007 when Angel Cabrera smoked roughly 720 cigarettes and barely edged out Tiger and Furyk at 5 over par. Of course, that was back when Tiger was sleeping with every cocktail waitress on the planet and was actually still good at golf.

So just how hard is Oakmont?

In his press conference last week Mickelson said, "I've played Oakmont the last two days, and I really think it is the hardest golf course we've ever played. It's a very fair test, even though it's hard. But a lot of golf courses, when they challenge you tee-to-green the way Oakmont does, it usually has a little bit of a reprieve on the greens. You really don't at Oakmont. They're some of the most undulating, fast, difficult greens to putt. It really is the hardest golf course I think we've played."

Personally, I love it. I think the US Open should be the hardest test in golf. Not the most tricked up (Mike Davis)…the hardest. If it was up to me, or anyone that actually knew what they were doing, the US Open would only be played on a handful of courses that rotate yearly like the British Open. My list would include; Oakmont, Winged Foot, Pebble, Olympic, Bethpage Black, Shinnecock, Merion, Pinehurst, Congressional, Baltusrol, The Country Club, Pinehurst No. 2 and Torrey Pines.

Of course Oakmont is also home to the greatest round of golf ever played. I know Johnny Miller is too humble to ever talk about it himself, but it’s true. In 2000, Golf Magazine ranked it the best round in golf history because of the course, the round it was shot, the tournament it was shot in and most importantly the fact that he shot it to win. And surprisingly enough, Johnny agreed. “That's why it was voted the greatest round,'' Miller said. His 63 in the final round of the 1973 US Open really was the greatest single round of golf ever played. And of course the USGA took it personal which lead to “The Massacre at Winged Foot” in 1974.

Not to be confused with the “I can’t believe I just did that…I am such an idiot” which also took place at Winged Foot…in 2006.

I’m not sure we will see a final round 63 this year to win, but like I said earlier, I think because of the venue we will see the best players in the world separate themselves this week and your winner will be one of the favorites. So let’s break down the contenders this week.

As always, odds are at the time this was written and will probably change throughout the week.

Let’s start with guys that have decent odds but zero chance:

Dustin Johnson (15/1): He will be a popular pick this week based on his play of late and his final round 63 in Memphis. But we are talking about winning a Major, and this is still Dustin Johnson. You can take your pick as to why DJ has zero chance this week. He’s cursed in Majors? He's gone more than 15 months without a win anywhere? He melts down anytime he’s in contention in any tournament these days? Again, his 63 in Memphis came with zero pressure after he already played himself out of it Saturday when he was actually in contention.

Rickie Fowler (20/1): Despite being in the the top five of the Official World Golf Ranking and a decent history at the US Open, Fowler isn’t in the top 5 odds wise to win this week. And for good reason. The guy just doesn’t win very much for as talented and highly ranked as he is and continues to be O-for his career in majors. He’s also missed the cut in his last two starts and most importantly as always…no male golfer has ever won a PGA Tour event, much less a major championship, wearing high tops and women’s pants.

Phil Mickelson (25/1): I went back and forth on Phil. The guy is a SIX time runner-up at the US Open. Most people look at that one of two ways. Either he is due…or he has no chance to win. I happen fall in the middle. The guy still has one of the best short games on the planet and will need every bit of it this week at Oakmont. He is also playing well in 2016 with five top five’s, including a T-2 in Memphis, but the guy hasn’t closed the deal on tour since his British Open win almost three years ago. Throw in the fact that Oakmont is about the only U.S. Open venue where Mickelson hasn't fared well with a T-47 in 1994 and missed the cut in 2007, and the US Open will still be missing from his resume come Sunday afternoon.

Henrik Stenson (25/1): If the objective in golf was to finish as close to first without ever actually winning, Henrik Stenson would be an all-time great. Contending is one thing, winning is an entirely different animal and Stenson has yet to prove the latter in years…or ever in a major.

Bubba Watson (30/1): Bubba winning a US Open in and of itself is hilarious. Bubba winning the US Open at Oakmont is about as likely as John Daly laying up on a Par 5. The guy has five missed cuts in nine tries at the US Open and gets flustered if an ant farts within 90 miles of him. He will lose his mind this week at Oakmont and missing the cut is far more likely than repeating anything close to his top-10 finish here in 2007.

Danny Willett (30/1): Willett winning the Masters was far from a fluke. The guy is ranked in the Top 10 in the world for a reason. With that said, I don’t see Jordan Spieth, or whoever is leading, having another epic collapse ahead of him again. He also has a less than stellar record at the US Open with a T-45 and a MC in two appearances. But above all else, I just don’t see Danny Willett winning back-to-back majors.

Louis Oosthuizen (40/1): Three missed cuts in five tournaments since his Match Play run in March. If you can’t make the cut at Colonial or the Nelson, you have no chance at Oakmont.

Matt Kuchar (40/1): Contend, no doubt. Win, no way. The guy is a check cashing machine. It’s just rarely the really big one and never at the Majors.

Patrick Reed (40/1): Despite being born in 1990, Patrick Reed played Oakmont the Monday after Johnny Miller’s 63 in 1973 using only a 7 iron and a putter and shot a 62. But in all seriousness, since I am currently tied with him in Top 10 finishes in a major, at zero, I will pass.

Sergio Garcia (40/1): It’s Sergio…it’s a major. Is there really anything else I need to say? Plus my wife hates him, so he’s got that going against him as well.

Brooks Koepka (50/1): Koepka has all the tools to win a major, and probably will one day, just not this Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his name in contention this weekend but he has had trouble closing in regular tour events so I don’t see him closing out a major just yet.

Lee Westwood (60/1): See Sergio…except the part about my wife. I really would love to see Westwood win just one Major before he’s done. I would love to be wrong but I just don’t see that being the case at this course of all places.

Zach Johnson (60/1): He has played in 12 US Open’s, has five missed cuts and not a single top 25 to his name in any of those 12 starts. No thanks.

Jim Furyk (80/1): He’s gritty…he’s a grinder…he’s Pennsylvania tough. And all that other BS that people try and throw around about Jim Furyk. Yes, he has won a US Open (over a decade ago). And yes he finished T-2 with Tiger here in 2007. And yes it would make a great story if he won in his home state and became the oldest player to ever win a US Open. But it simply isn’t going to happen. The guy is a choke artist. On top of which, he’s a ‘recovering from injury’ choke artist at that. If he was perfectly healthy and this was 5 years ago I wouldn’t take him at 80/1. This week, I wouldn’t take him at 180/1.

The Dark horse:

Kevin Chappell (80/1): Chappell has gone from 250/1 to 80/1 in less than a two months for a reason. With that said, he still hasn’t won on Tour and he’s still 80/1 for a reason. But if you are the kind of person that only likes to piss away money on a guy with really long odds, Chappell is your guy.

The Top 10 (in order).

Daniel Berger (80/1): Unfortunately for Berger backers, his odds are sure to drop after his impressive win in Memphis last week. But his win comes as no surprise. He was the 2015 PGA rookie of the year and before his win last week he had finished inside the top 20 in 5 of his last 6 tournaments. He ranks 25th on Tour in Driving Distance, 30th in Birdie Average, 36th in Total Putting. In other words he doesn’t have a glaring weakness. That and of course his girlfriend is an absolute smoke show so seeing her run out on the 18th green Sunday afternoon wouldn’t suck.

Paul Casey (50/1): Casey is one of the best iron players in the world and that will come in very handy this week. He is streaky, but recorded a T-4 at Augusta this year and finished T-10 here in 2007. At 50/1 there is value in Casey if you want it. And I definitely like him to repeat his top 10 from 2007 this week.

Brandt Snedeker (50/1): One of the best putters in the world on fast greens and top 25 here in 2007. If Sneds can find his form from early 2016 I think he can hang around this weekend long enough to record his second Top 10 in a major this year.

Hideki Matsuyama (30/1): As I said in April, Matsuyama is going to win a major sooner than later, he’s too talented and head strong not too. In general, he is playing well in 2016 and progressively getting better in majors and while I don’t think he’s quite there yet I think he backs up his Top 10 at Augusta with another Top 10 this week at Oakmont.

Justin Rose (20/1): I had actually been eyeing Rose all year for this tournament until a few weeks ago. The guy was made for the US Open with three top 10’s (including Oakmont in 2007) and a win in 2013 at Merion. But I just have a very hard time backing anyone with serious injury concerns (no pun intended). His lingering back injury forced him to WD from both the BMW PGA and the Memorial. That is a huge red flag. Plus he sucks at putting. Rose ranks 115th in strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this year and that is a very bad stat when you are playing Oakmont. With that said, if his back holds up for four days it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Rose there come Sunday afternoon. Rose is the total wildcard this week to me.

Branden Grace (30/1): Before his tee shot landed somewhere between a train and the Pacific Ocean last year on the 70th hole Branden Grace had a very real shot of winning the US Open. His T-4 was no fluke as he has proved since with a solo third at the PGA Championship and a win at Hilton Head. The one major problem for Grace this week is that he ranks near the bottom of the tour in driving accuracy. That is not a good place to be if you want to win at Oakmont. If he can somehow drive it well for four days though he will absolutely be there on Sunday. But that is a big IF.

Jordan Spieth (8/1): As we saw at Augusta this year, his short-game can keep him in just about any tournament he plays in no matter how bad he is hitting it. But as we saw at Augusta, it will eventually catch up to him if he’s hitting it poorly. And nowhere on the planet will it catch up faster and more severe than Oakmont. His win at Colonial was big for his confidence but he also couldn’t find a fairway and once again had to rely on his short game to bail him out. He won’t have that luxury this week. I love Spieth and hope and expect him to be there come Sunday afternoon because of his ability to get the ball into the hole. I just think he hits too many wayward shots over the weekend to win. He’s still a no doubt Top 10 and right on the edge of a top 5 play for me this week.

Adam Scott (25/1): At the beginning of March it didn’t look like Adam Scott would ever lose another tournament again. He has obviously cooled off significantly since then but he still leads the tour in a number of statistics, most notably for this week, strokes gained tee-to-green and approach-the-green. Those two stats should bode very well for Scott this week. While he has just two top 10s in a US Open, but both have come the past two years. I think Scott is right there come Sunday with a very good chance to win and should easily notch his third Top 10 in a row in a US Open and a Top 5 wouldn’t surprise me either.

Jason Day (7/1): You almost have to be a complete idiot not to bet on Jason Day to win this week. He is currently the best player on the planet by a mile, he has won seven of his last 17 tournaments and has a pair of runner-up finishes in 2011 (Congressional) and 2013 (Merion) to go along with an otherwise impressive record at the US Open as well. But I am an idiot. Most of the time in life the most obvious answer is the right one…but every now and then the most obvious answer is wrong. This week has that feel. Day is a lock for a Top 10 and an almost certain Top 5, but he still only has one major title to his name and has a tendency to find ways to barely lose majors more often than not in his career. Would a win surprise me this week by Day? Not even a little. I just think this feels a lot like 2007 when Tiger was a forgone conclusion coming in and finished one shot back to El Pato.

And your winner…

Rory McIlroy (7/1): As I said in my 2016 PGA Preview, “to win at Oakmont you need accuracy and power and no one on tour fits that mold better than Rory.” I regrettably jumped the gun and took him at Augusta this year even though he was putting like a 10-handicap and almost talked myself out of taking him this week because of it. But make no mistake, Rory McIlroy is better suited for Oakmont than anyone else on tour. He is number one on Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee and number three in strokes gained from-tee-to-green. That will be huge this week and unlike heading into the Masters, he had the best putting week of his PGA Tour career after changing back to a conventional grip at The Memorial a few weeks ago where he finished T-4. He won in Ireland in his start prior to Memorial that ended a winless drought of more than a year and he's posted four top-five finishes in his past seven PGA Tour starts. His US Open win in 2011 at Congressional basically wasn’t even a US Open. His 2016 win at Oakmont certainly will be.

On a side note, I might be in love with Brooke Henderson. If she is the future of the LPGA Tour, sign me up. Her win at Women's PGA Championship Sunday was nothing short of spectacular. I always said it would take a miracle to get me to watch a full round of an LPGA Tournament. Brooke Henderson appears to be that miracle. I will have my two little girls watching her on a regular basis. I’m a fan.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

10 Players to Watch: United States Open
By Tom LaMarre, The Sports Xchange

1. Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland -- The lowest-ranked of the new Big 3 might have the advantage at Oakmont because he's longer and straighter than most off the tee and that might minimize the number of times he has to deal with the notorious USGA rough. If he can make enough putts, Rory might claim his fifth major championship and second U.S. Open title, having won by eight strokes over Jason Day in 2011 at Congressional. McIlroy has not won one of the Grand Slam events since finishing off 2014 by claiming the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool and the PGA Championship at Valhalla, but he has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six majors. He recently won the Irish Open and tied for fourth in the Memorial his last time out.

2. Jordan Spieth, United States -- The defending champion seemed to shake off his collapse on the back nine in the final round of his title defense at the Masters, blowing a five-stroke lead, by winning the Dean & DeLuca Invitational, but then he tied for 57th in the Memorial. Spieth must straighten out his ball-striking, and if he can, a second straight U.S. Open title could be his because he is considered the best putter around, especially from long range. He figures to be in the hunt no matter what because he has an innate talent for getting the ball into the hole, and he has finished no worse than a tie for fourth in the Open Championship last year at St. Andrews in the last five majors. Spieth has two victories this year and seven since the start of 2015.

3. Jason Day, Australia -- The top-ranked player in the World Golf Rankings captured his first major title in the PGA Championship last August at Whistling Straits and has made it clear that he is hungry for more. Day figures to be right there on Sunday because he has finished in the top 10 in each of the last four majors and has a strong record in the U.S. Open. He tied for ninth last year at Chambers Bay, tied for fourth the year before at Pinehurst No. 2, tied for second in 2013 at Merion and was solo second in 2011 at Congressional. Day has taken a firm grip on the No. 1 spot, showing that he has learned how to close the deal with three victories this season after winning five times in 2015.

4. Dustin Johnson, United States -- DJ is the most talented player in the world without a major title and has endured more than his share of heartbreak in the Grand Slam events. Last year in the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay was the worst, as he missed a 12-foot birdie putt to win on the final green and needed two more to get into the hole, handing the title to Jordan Spieth. Johnson took a three-stroke lead to the final round of the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, but closed with an 82 to tie for eighth, and a two-stroke penalty on the 72nd hole of the PGA that year at Whistling Straits kept him out of the playoff in which Martin Kaymer beat Bubba Watson. Johnson has four top-10 results in the last five majors and 12 in all.

5. Phil Mickelson, United States -- Lefty will make his third bid to complete the Career Grand Slam this week at Oakmont, having finished second in the U.S. Open an agonizing six times. He hasn't won anywhere since capturing the 2013 Open Championship at Muirfield, and that came out of the blue, since it was the one major that he figured to have the most trouble winning since true links golf has not been his game. Mickelson, who has 42 PGA Tour victories including five major titles, has been close this season with five finishes in the top 10, including second in the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and a tie for second last week in the FedEx St. Jude Classic. He's very aware that he is running out of time and chances at 45, but Lefty's short game and savvy give him a chance.

6. Justin Rose, England -- When the U.S. Open was last played in Pennsylvania, in 2012 at Merion, Rose closed with an even-par 70 to beat Phil Mickelson and Jason Day by two strokes for his only major victory. He has had 10 other results in the top 10 of majors since he tied for fourth in the 1998 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale as a 17-year-old amateur by holing a 50-foot birdie chip on the 72nd hole. Even though he hasn't won since the UBS Hong Kong Open late last year, Rose had played well this season with five top-10 finishes, including a tie for 10th in the Masters and solo third recently in the Wells Fargo Championship. He tied for 19th in the Players Championship last month but hasn't played since because of a sore back that short-circuited a promising week.

7. Rickie Fowler, United States -- The only thing missing from Rickie's resume is a major championship after he captured the Players Championship, the so-called "Fifth Major," last year. Not that he hasn't been close, finishing in the top five of all four Grand Slam events two years ago. However, he hasn't been quite as good since, with a tie for 12th in the 2015 Masters his best result in the last five majors, and he missed the cut at Augusta this year. Fowler came close to his fourth PGA Tour victory earlier this year, losing to Hideki Matsuyama of Japan on the fourth playoff hole in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He won in Abu Dhabi in January and has five other top-10 results, but missed the cut in the Players and the Memorial Tournament in his last two starts.

8. Adam Scott, Australia -- When Scott became the first Aussie to win the Masters in 2013, it seemed he would soon join Peter Thomson, Greg Norman and David Graham as a multiple major winner from Down Under. Not only has it not happened, but now he is playing second fiddle among Aussie golfers to top-ranked Jason Day. It's not for lack of trying, because Scott has finished in the top 10 in at least two majors in each of the last five years. He posted his best result in the U.S. Open last year at Chambers Bay, closing with a 6-under-par 64 to tie for fourth, two shots behind winner Jordan Spieth. Scott won the first two events of the Florida Swing earlier this year, but his best result since was a tie for 12th in the Players.

9. Bubba Watson, United States -- When a player has all the shots like Bubba, he should be able to take his game to any course and be a contender, but it doesn't work that way for him. He has two major titles, winning the Masters in 2012 and 2014, but Watson's best result in the U.S. Open was a tie for fifth in 2007 at Oakmont, where he opened with 70-71 before coming home in 74-74 to finish four strokes behind champion Angel Cabrera. Bubba won the Northern Trust Open earlier this year and was second in his next outing in the WGC-Cadillac Championship, but hasn't finished in the top 25 in his last four PGA Tour events. Watson, who tied for eighth in the Shenzhen International in April, simply has to get out of his own way.

10. Danny Willett, England -- The Masters champion was a real "Who's he?" in the United States when he roared past faltering Jordan Spieth to win at Augusta in April. He has become a member of the PGA Tour and has risen to ninth in the World Golf Rankings, having won three other tournaments on the European Tour in the last two seasons. Willett's only other top-10 finish in a major was a tie for sixth in the Open Championship last year at St. Andrews, and he has played in the U.S. Open twice, tying for 45th in 2014 at Pinehurst No. 2 and missing the cut last year at Chambers Bay. Even before winning the Masters he showed he has the stomach for the big stage, tying for third in both the WGC-HSBC Champions and the WGC-Cadillac Championship earlier this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golfers to Bet - U.S. Open

Tournament: U.S. Open
Date: Thursday, June 16th
Venue: Oakmont Country Club
Location: Plum, PA

The second major of the year tees off on Thursday when the players head to Oakmont Country Club for the U.S. Open.

Jordan Spieth was the one that ended up emerging as the winner of 2015’s U.S. Open. Prior to that victory, the winner in four of the previous five championships came from Europe.

Graeme McDowell was the winner in 2010, Rory McIlroy won in 2011, Justin Rose won in 2013 and Martin Kaymer was the winner in 2014. Those guys will also be in this year’s field, and so will most of the other top golfers in the world.

The one main exclusion that must be noted is Tiger Woods. Woods is still recovering from a back injury and is out indefinitely. It’s a major loss for the TOUR, as he has won this event three times in his career. The course these guys will be playing at was most recently the host of this tournament back in 2007.

Angel Cabrera won that year, shooting a five-over to defeat both Jim Furyk and Tiger Woods by one stroke each. This is typically a tough tournament to play in, but each of the past two winners has finished under-par.

With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might be holding up the trophy on Sunday:

Golfers to Bet

Jordan Spieth (8/1) - Spieth is getting better odds than both Jason Day and Rory McIlroy in this tournament, but there really isn’t that big of a margin between all of these players. Spieth also happens to be the defending champion at the U.S. Open and will be driven to win this thing after giving away The Masters in April. He had a big lead heading into the back nine of that one and his collapse allowed Danny Willett to come away with a victory. Spieth has rebounded pretty nicely since that forgettable performance, as he won the Dean & DeLuca Invitational at the end of May. There’s not much that he can do to completely put what happened at The Masters behind him, but a win at the U.S. Open on Sunday would certainly help him deal with those demons. He’s worth putting a few units on at 8/1, as he is as special of a talent as there is on TOUR.

Dustin Johnson (14/1) - Johnson is yet another golfer with all of the talent in the world and he’ll certainly be hungry to win this tournament on Sunday. Johnson has never won a major, but he has come insanely close to doing so. He tied for second at the U.S. Open in 2015 and did the same at The Open in 2011. He’d certainly like for his first to be this weekend, as it would mean a lot to him to win his first at the U.S. Open. Johnson looked like he was going to win at Chambers Bay in 2015, but he three-putted the final hole and that ended up being the difference. Johnson is, however, playing some incredible golf coming into this one. He is coming off of a fifth place finish at the St. Jude Classic last week and he finished in third at the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago. He’s a great value to win at 14/1 and should have a great chance of coming away with a win. He’ll just need to be consistent with the putter.

Brooks Koepka (45/1) - Like Johnson, Koepka also happens to be coming into this tournament playing some of his best golf of the season. Koepka shot a 15-under to finish in second at the Byron Nelson in the middle of May and he followed that appearance up with a 10-under to finish tied for second at the St. Jude Classic. Koepka was struggling heading into both of those events, but perhaps he has picked up the momentum he needs to take his game to another level on Sunday. He is certainly well rounded enough to win a tournament like this. Koepka is excellent with the driver and can get hot on the greens as well, which is a huge reason he is 16th in the OWGR. His value is tremendous at 45/1 and it’d be wise to put a unit on him this weekend.

Shane Lowry (125/1) - Lowry is not performing the way he did a year ago, but that might actually end up paying off huge this weekend. Lowry finished 2015 as the 21st ranked player in the OWGR, but he is just 41st this year. He does, however, have all the shots and is a high upside play this weekend. Lowry most recently appeared at THE PLAYERS and finished tied for 16th with a six-under. That was his last PGA tournament, so he should be well rested coming into this one. For a player of his caliber to be getting 125/1 odds is very rare, so putting a half-unit on him is something that should definitely be done while you have the chance.

Odds Subject to Change

 

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18 need-to-know golf betting notes for the 2016 U.S. Open
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

The marriage between the U.S. Open and Oakmont Country Club is a perfect as it is treacherous, as epic as it is challenging.

Widely regarded as the most daunting test on the professional golf calendar, no track in the world is better suited to test every facet of one’s game during a 72-hole stretch designed to crown America’s champion. Unrelenting, punishing and, perhaps most importantly, mentally exhausting. The U.S. Open is the ultimate test, and Oakmont Country Club is the ideal venue.

Forget about the 5-under par Jordan Spieth shot last year at Chambers Bay to win the 2015 tournament. Disregard the 9-under Martin Kaymer fired at Pinehurst the year before that to claim his second major championship. Oakmont is a different beast entirely, as evidenced by the 5-over Angel Cabrera recorded in 2007 - the last time the U.S. Open swung by Oakmont - to claim his first and only United States Open Championship.

This week marks the ninth time in 116 editions that the U.S. Open will venture into Western Pennsylvania and onto the pristine grounds of Oakmont Country Club. Perhaps nowhere else in the world is a champion deemed more worthy than the individual who raises the 8.5-pound sterling silver symbol of triumph at Oakmont Country Club.

Here are 18 need-to-know golf betting notes for this week’s U.S. Open:

1. Between the dense, profuse rough and lightning-quick greens that will be played between 14 and 15 on the stimpmeter, it’s no surprise to hear five-time major championship winner Phil Mickelson refer to Oakmont as, “The hardest course he’s ever played.” Throw in Angel Cabrera’s 5-over par win in 2007 during the U.S. Open’s last visit to Oakmont and it becomes crystal clear as to why the Over/Under for this week’s winning score was posted at 282.5 (Par is 280). I’d exercise extreme caution for those of you contemplating an Under wager this week, especially when you consider…

2. Weather update: The forecast for Thursday’s opening round calls for a high of 85 degrees with a 90 percent chance of precipitation (thunderstorms are likely) and five mile-per-hour winds out of the west-southwest. Friday’s forecast calls for a high of 82 degrees with morning thunderstorms (60 percent chance of precipitation) and 10 mile-per-hour winds out of the east-northeast. The inclement weather is expected to disappear over the weekend, with just a 10 percent chance of precipitation Saturday, highs of 86 and 87 degrees Saturday and Sunday, respectively, and little wind to worry about during the tournament’s final 36 holes.

3. Injury alert: Justin Rose (25/1) won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion, but be advised that the 35 year old is returning to action this week following a back injury that forced him to withdraw from both the BMW PGA Championship and the Memorial. Further, Rose just started practicing with his driver again only a few days ago, so there’s reason to believe the Englishman may struggle a bit at Oakmont this week, much like he did on this same course back in 2007 when Rose posted a +11 after 72 holes.

4. Under the weather: Always a popular choice amongst bettors to emerge victorious once the dust finally settles, Jason Day (13/2) is battling a cold he recently picked up and isn’t 100 percent for this week’s championship. “I’ve never been more stressed in my life than right now,” Day told ESPN. “It’s just because being No. 1 in the world, having a lot of expectations on you, having to practice so hard to keep that No. 1 spot, trying to win as many tournaments as I can, puts a lot of stress and pressure on your shoulders.” The World No. 1 didn’t get a chance to prepare for Oakmont this past Saturday and Sunday like he wanted to, which could put him behind the eight ball come Thursday’s opening round.

5. Key stat: With devastating rough measuring four to eight inches in length as well as strategically placed bunkers that will prove very difficult to escape, Stokes Gained: Tee-to-Green may be the most important metric to consider in regards to the 2016 United States Open. We’ll spare you the details on how this statistic is calculated and, instead, will simply skip ahead to the players who have performed very well this season in this category, which includes: Adam Scott (1), Justin Rose (2), Dustin Johnson (3), Rory McIlroy (4), Rickie Fowler (5), Hideki Matsuyama (6), Bubba Watson (7), Henrik Stenson (8), Phil Mickelson (T12), Patrick Reed (T12) and Jordan Spieth (16).

6. For those of you who enjoy playing daily matchups, take note that since 1898, only six U.S. Open championships have been won by players who were in seventh place or worse entering the final round.

7. Popular player to watch: While he’s never won a major championship and has developed a bit of a reputation for collapsing in the biggest of spots, Dustin Johnson (12/1) is drawing plenty of attention this week and for good reason. Johnson put together back-to-back T5 finishes in his two starts leading up to this week’s U.S. Open, highlighted by a final round 63 this past Sunday in Memphis to finish fifth at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Still, you can’t help but consider what happened on the 72nd hole last year at Chambers Bay when evaluating whether or not D.J. has the mettle to put it all together for four full rounds. However, golf bettors should like the idea of playing Johnson at +125 over Jason Day in a four-round matchup prop.

8. Only 27 of the 156 golfers in this week’s field competed at the U.S. Open the last time it was held at Oakmont back in 2007. Some of the notable names and results from that group include: Angel Cabrera (Won), Jim Furyk (T2), Bubba Watson (T5), Paul Casey (T10) and Brandt Snedeker (T23). Those who didn’t fare so well include: Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Retief Goosen, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott, who all missed the cut.

9. Four-round matchup to consider: Rory McIlroy (-105) over Jason Day (-115) looks appealing due to Day’s recent illness combined with McIlroy’s recent form, which features five consecutive PGA Tour events with a finish of T12 or better, including three Top 5s. Not only that, but McIlroy has won this event before, which came via an eight-shot victory over (guess who?) Day at Congressional back in 2011. In that win, McIlroy set 11 U.S. Open records, including the lowest total 72-hole score (268).

10. Key stat: As mentioned above, avoiding both the rough and fairway bunkers at Oakmont will prove to be an integral component in the eventual champion’s path to success, which means that Driving Accuracy will serve as another crucial metric worthy of consideration entering Thursday’s opening round. Those in the field who have excelled at Driving Accuracy so far this season include: Thomas Aiken (2), Russell Knox (8), Henrik Stenson (9), Graeme McDowell (13) and David Lingmerth (15).

11. The defending champion: Two-time major championship winner (2015 Masters, 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay) Jordan Spieth enters the week listed at 8/1 to defend his title, right behind Day (13/2) and McIlroy (7/1). But Oakmont will present a test the likes of which Spieth has never before seen. The last time the U.S. Open ventured into Western Pennsylvania, Spieth was only 13 years old. In addition, the defending champ had all of just 27 holes of practice at Oakmont on his resume entering the week, and what he’s experienced over the last few days is vastly different than how the track played during that tune-up back in May. And for those who suggest that last year presented the same challenge for Spieth, think again, as caddy Michael Greller actually began his career as a looper at Chambers Bay, giving Spieth a strategic advantage over the competition.

12. Fun fact: The eighth hole at Oakmont will serve as the longest Par-3 in U.S. Open history at a length of 288 yards. When America’s championship last visited Western Pennsylvania back in 2007, the eighth green was hit just 26.7 percent of the time.

13. Key stat: It’s considered highly probable that Oakmont will feature the fastest greens of any event played this season, so 3-Putt Avoidance is a metric we should take very seriously. Those in the field who have excelled in this category this season include: Retief Goosen (1), Luke Donald (5), Spencer Levin (12), Ryan Moore (18) and Daniel Berger (T19).

14. Speaking of putting, exercise caution this week when it comes to backing Rickie Fowler (25/1). One of the most affable players on Tour, Fowler currently ranks 32nd in 3-Putt Avoidance, 28th in Approach Putt Performance and 42nd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Not only that, but the streaky Fowler has missed the cut in each of his last two events (THE PLAYERS Championship, the Memorial) as well as at the Masters back in April. And that leads us to…

15. Four-round matchup to consider: Phil Mickelson (-110) over Rickie Fowler (-110), for all the reasons mentioned directly above regarding Fowler, as well as the fact that Mickelson is coming off a T2 performance at last weekend’s FedEx St. Jude Classic. This has been somewhat of an inconsistent season for Lefty, but he does rank first in Putting Inside of Ten Feet, 10th in Sand Saves, 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 21st in Scrambling, all of which will be vital to gaining any sort of traction at Oakmont this week.

16. Four of the last five U.S. Open championships have been won by golfers who found themselves within the Top 15 in the Official World Golf Rankings entering the week of the U.S. Open. The current Top 15 looks as follows: Jason Day (13/2), Jordan Spieth (8/1), Rory McIlroy (7/1), Bubba Watson (40/1), Rickie Fowler (25/1), Dustin Johnson (12/1), Henrik Stenson (30/1), Adam Scott (30/1), Danny Willett (40/1), Justin Rose (25/1), Patrick Reed (40/1), Branden Grace (30/1), Sergio Garcia (40/1), Louis Oosthuizen (60/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (30/1).

17. Be careful when it comes to: Bubba Watson (40/1), who boasts a U.S. Open resume that looks like this: T5 (2007), CUT (2008), T18 (2009), T63 (2011), CUT (2012), T32 (2013), CUT (2014), CUT (2015). Which leads us to…

18. Four-round matchup to consider: Henrik Stenson (-125) over Bubba Watson (+105), for all the reasons listed directly above along with the fact that Stenson’s last seven U.S. Open appearances have concluded with the following results: T27 (2015), T4 (2014), T21 (2013), T23 (2011), T29 (2010), 9 (2009). Stenson rarely makes a serious run at winning the U.S. Open, but he’s been extremely consistent over his last seven starts in this event, with seven consecutive made cuts.

*All golf betting odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

 

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U.S. Open golf betting preview and odds: Don't fall in love with favorites
By MATT FARGO

The second major tournament of the PGA Tour season is upon us as the 116th U.S. Open will be contested this week from Oakmont Country Club located just east of Pittsburgh, PA. Matt Fargo breaks down the course challenges, tournament trends and golf betting favorites.

This is the ninth time Oakmont has hosted the U.S. Open, which is the most for any course. It’s a true test where poor shots come with a penalty, and the champion will likely make the fewest mistakes among the field. After the Pinehurst and Chambers Bay experiments, golf bettors are back to a typical U.S. Open layout with thick, long and tiered rough and lightning-fast greens.

Oakmont stretches out to 7,254 yards and is expected to play extremely tough. It last hosted in 2007 with Angel Cabrera taking home the trophy with a 5-over total - the highest finishing score of any U.S. Open since. That was also the first time the champion finished over par at Oakmont since 1935, with the five previous champions all finishing with sub-par scores. Light wins and low humidity would normally mean low scoring but the greens will be the fastest anyone has seen this year.

Since the start of the 2007 U.S. Open, roughly 14,000 trees have been removed in an effort to get Oakmont looking like the original design. And while there’s no tree trouble, there’s no water trouble either which shows how much the rough and the greens can be penal. Keeping the ball on the short grass and hitting greens is obviously of the utmost importance but that is easier said than done. Straight, high hitters will have the biggest advantage to tame Oakmont.

While the thought is that the majors are dominated by the world's best players, that has hardly been the case. Of the last 29 major tournaments, there’ve been 21 different winners with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Martin Kaymer, Bubba Watson and Jordan Spieth being the only two-time or more major winners over that stretch.

As far as the U.S. Open, 10 of the last 11 winners hoisted the trophy for the first time, with Tiger Woods in 2008 being his third title. American players used to dominate but only four of the last 12 winners have been from the United States.

World No. 1 Jason Day, defending champion Jordan Spieth and Masters champion Danny Willett head a list expected to include 59 of the Top 60 players in the World Rankings. Spieth will be out to defend but it won’t be easy as the last back-to-back U.S. Open champion was Curtis Strange in 1988 and 1989. How difficult is it to defend? Only six players in the history of the U.S. Open have finished higher than 30th the following year.

The Big Three of Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth are the favorites at +630, +655 and +810 respectively. Dustin Johnson, who three-putted the 72nd hole at Chalmers Bay last year and who’s in search of his first major title comes in at +1,310. And then there is a big dropoff to Justin Rose (+2,470), Phil Mickelson (+2,610), Adam Scott (+2,740), Hideki Matsuyama (+2,740) and Rickie Fowler (+2,870), who are the remaining players under the +3,000 threshold.

 

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U.S. Open Betting Props

2016 U.S. Open General Props

Winning Score (72 Holes)
282.5 (-105)
282.5 (-125)

What Will the 36 Hole Cut Be?
Over 149.5 (Even)
Under 149.5 (-130)

Low Single Round Score by Any Golfer
Over 66.5 (-160)
Uunder 66.5 (+130)

High Single Round Score by Any Golfer
Over 89.5 (-110)
Under 89.5 (-120)

Winning Margin
1 Shot 5/2
2 Shots 7/2
3 Shots 9/2
4+ Shots 7/2
Playoff 3/1

Winning Nationality
Australasian 5/1
European 9/4
Rest of the World 7/1
USA 1/1


2016 U.S. Open Special Props

1st Round Hole in One 8/1
4th Round Hole in One 14/1
Amateur to Win 150/1
Any Golfer Disqualified 30/1
Any Golfer to Record a Double Eagle (Albatross - Does not include Hole in One) 20/1
European Golfer to Win 9/4
Hole in One on 13th Hole 11/2
Hole in One on 16th Hole 18/1
Hole in One on 6th Hole 13/2 Hole in One on 8th Hole 25/1
Jordan Spieth to Finish 1st and Rory McIlroy to Finish 2nd 70/1
Slow Play Penalty to be Awarded in Event 25/1
US Golfer to Win 4/5
Winner From Final Pairing on Sunday 2/3
Winning Golfer is Left Handed 12/1
Wire to Wire Winner (Lead After Every Round) 7/1

2016 U.S. Open Player Props

Top Lefty
Phil Mickelson 1/1
Bubba Watson 6/5
Tim Wilkinson 8/1

Top Amateur
Jon Rahm 5/2
Charlie Danielson 5/1
Scottie Scheffler 5/1
Sam Horsfield 6/1
Derek Bard 8/1
Nick Hardy 10/1
Sam Burns 10/1
Kyle Mueller 15/1
Justin Suh 16/1
Christopher Crawford 25/1

Top American
Jordan Spieth 5/1
Dustin Johnson 7/1
Bubba Watson 15/1
Matt Kuchar 15/1
Phil Mickelson 15/1
Rickie Fowler 17/1
Brooks Koepka 20/1
Jim Furyk 30/1
Brandt Snedeker 35/1
Daniel Berger 35/1
J B Holmes 35/1
Patrick Reed 35/1
Billy Horschel 40/1
Kevin Chappell 40/1
Webb Simpson 40/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Jason Dufner 45/1
Jimmy Walker 50/1
Kevin Kisner 50/1
Bill Haas 60/1
Brendan Steele 60/1
Charley Hoffman 60/1
Chris Kirk 60/1
Harris English 60/1
Justin Thomas 60/1
Kevin Na 60/1
Tony Finau 70/1
William McGirt 70/1
Bryson Dechambeau 75/1
Keegan Bradley 75/1
Lucas Glover 75/1
Ryan Moore 75/1
Smylie Kaufman 75/1
Patrick Rodgers 80/1
Daniel Summerhays 100/1
James Hahn 100/1
Jason Kokrak 100/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
Patton Kizzire 100/1
Robert Streb 100/1
Scott Piercy 125/1
Tom Hoge 125/1
David Toms 150/1
Spencer Levin 150/1
Aaron Wise 200/1
Billy Hurley III 200/1
Jim Herman 200/1
Justin Hicks 200/1
Kevin Tway 200/1
Andres Gonzales 250/1
Charlie Danielson 250/1
D J Trahan 250/1
Derek Fathauer 250/1
Dicky Pride 300/1
J J Henry 300/1
Jeff Maggert 300/1
Nick Hardy 300/1
Scottie Scheffler 300/1
Travis Howe 300/1
Ethan Tracy 350/1
Rob Oppenheim 350/1
Justin Suh 400/1
Sam Burns 400/1
Andrew Landry 450/1
Andy Pope 450/1
Denny McCarthy 450/1
Derek Bard 450/1
Chase Parker 500/1
Christopher Crawford 500/1
Derek Chang 500/1
Frank Adams 500/1
Gregor Main 500/1
Austin Jordan 750/1
Brandon Harkins 750/1
Jason Allred 750/1
Kent Bulle 750/1
Kyle Mueller 750/1
Mark Anguiano 750/1
Matt Marshall 750/1
Matthew Borchert 750/1
Michael Miller 750/1
Patrick Wilkes-Krier 750/1
Richard Schembechler 750/1
Ryan Stachler 750/1
Tyler Raber 750/1
Wes Short Jr 750/1
Zachary Edmondson 750/1

Top European
Rory McIlroy 37/20
Justin Rose 15/2
Henrik Stenson 10/1
Danny Willett 15/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 15/1
Paul Casey 15/1
Sergio Garcia 15/1
Lee Westwood 20/1
Martin Kaymer 20/1
Russell Knox 20/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 25/1
Shane Lowry 30/1
Graeme McDowell 35/1
Luke Donald 35/1
Chris Wood 40/1
David Lingmerth 45/1
Jamie Donaldson 45/1
Soren Kjeldsen 45/1
Peter Hanson 55/1
Alex Noren 75/1
Andrew Johnston 75/1
Andy Sullivan 75/1
Romain Wattel 85/1
Jon Rahm 100/1
Gregory Bourdy 125/1
Matteo Manassero 150/1
Maximilian Kieffer 150/1
Gary Stal 200/1
Lee Slattery 200/1
Matthew Baldwin 200/1
Mikael Lundberg 200/1
Sam Horsfield 200/1
Sebastian Soderberg 200/1
Soren Hansen 200/1

Top Australasian
Jason Day 2/5
Adam Scott 4/1
Marc Leishman 10/1
Danny Lee 14/1
Cameron Smith 30/1
Geoff Ogilvy 30/1
Steven Bowditch 40/1
Tim Wilkinson 40/1
Aron Price 50/1

 

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U.S. Open Notebook: Lefty goes for history
By Gethin Coolbaugh, The Sports Xchange

Phil Mickleson is desperately hoping the 26th time will be the charm.
Time is winding down on the beloved and soon-to-be 46-year-old's career entering the 116th U.S. Open this weekend at notoriously challenging Oakmont Country Club course in Oakmont, Pa.
Mickleson's is a career that includes five major championship victories, but a win at the U.S. Open has proven to be evasive.
"I think about it all the time," Mickleson said Wednesday before participating in his 26th career U.S. Open. "This is the tournament I want to win the most to complete the four majors. There's no question."
Mickelson, who turns 46 on Thursday, has a record six runner-up finishes at the United States Golf Association-sanctioned event and will be making his third bid to complete the Career Grand Slam.
In 2013, Mickelson took a one stroke lead into the final round at Merion Golf Club in Ardmore, Pa. He opened with double bogeys on two of his first five holes and bogeyed three of his final six to finish tied for second.
His last victory came in the 2013 Open Championship at Muirfield in Scotland.
In 63 tournaments since, Mickleson hasn't placed higher than second -- including last week's runner-up finish at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in Memphis, Tenn.
At last year's U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in University Place, Wash., which was won by Jordan Spieth, Mickleson made the cut after opening with a 1-under-par 69, but closed 74-77-73 to finish tied for 64th.
"I have to put that out of my head and try to execute and be patient and not think about results," Mickleson said of his winless U.S. Open tenure. "You start thinking about results, you'll never play your best golf."
--It had been a long time since Angel Cabrera returned to the site of his first major championship.
Nine years ago, the Argentine claimed a historic one-stroke victory over Jim Furyk and Tiger Woods in the 2007 U.S. Open at Oakmont, making him the first South American in history to win the tournament.
"It's been very emotional this week with all the memories from back in '07," Cabrera said Wednesday. "So I've been waiting several years to actually be back here at this moment, to be back and play Oakmont again. Certainly, very emotional to be back."
Cabrera, 46, went on to win only twice more on tour, in the 2007 Masters and the Greenbrier Classic in 2014.
Since his last victory, Cabrera hasn't placed higher than a tie for 12th in a PGA Tour event.
"I just play better at majors than regular tournaments," Cabrera said. "There's something about the majors that gets a lot of focus from me, a lot of the best of me, and that's been basically the case for all of my golfing career."
Cabrera, ranked No. 389 in the world, is paired with former U.S. Open champions Ernie Els of South Africa and Furyk in the first two rounds. Els won in 1997 and Furyk won in 2003.
--Dustin Johnson says he's looking forward to playing at Oakmont, despite its reputation as one of the toughest courses in the country.
"I really like the golf course," Johnson said Wednesday. "I enjoy playing it. It's just tough, but I like hard golf courses. I think they suit my game very well."
The world's sixth-ranked golfer played a round last Tuesday and doesn't plan to change any clubs in his bag to account for the course's length.
While he hasn't played the course in competition, Johnson knows he'll have to keep his composure if he wants to win his first career major.
"You're definitely going to have to be patient out here," he said. "Par is a good score on any hole.
--Few can say they've attended every U.S. Open ever played at Oakmont Country Club. In fact, Bob McElhose is the only one.
The 100-year-old Oakmont, Pa., resident is the only known person who has been on hand for all eight U.S. Opens hosted by Oakmont -- in 1927, 1935, 1953, 1962, 1973, 1983, 1994 and most recently in 2007.
"Well, I've been around a long time, and I was around this country club a lot," McElhose said in an interview with the USGA. "It's not an easy course. You just love to play it."
McElhose's first U.S. Open saw Tommy Armour claim his first of three major championships. He was also present for Johnny Miller's course-record 63 in the final round to win in 1973.
"I can say I've seen all Opens here, and enjoyed every one," McElhose said. "I'm looking forward to this golf course being played.
Maybe I'll play one more (round) before I go. I look forward to it..

 

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PGA Tour Picks: 116th US Open Golf Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Go ahead and rule out Daniel Berger winning this week's second major of the year on the PGA Tour, the 116th U.S. Open. That's because no player has ever won the week before the Open and then taken that tournament in the same year.

Berger got his first Tour win at the St. Jude Classic in Memphis on Sunday. It really was only a matter of time for the 2014-15 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. Berger, who had never even played in a final pairing of a tournament until Sunday, finished at 13-under 267 to become the 13th first-time winner on Tour this season in the 50th start of his promising career. Berger, who shot in the 60s for all four rounds, finished three shots ahead of second-place Phil Mickelson and Brooks Koepka. Berger, who was Koepka's teammate at Florida State, is the sixth player under age 25 to win already this season, the most on Tour since 1983.

Mickelson birdied the first three holes of the back nine on Sunday to get within a shot of Berger but had just one more birdie the rest of the way. It was Koepka's second consecutive runner-up after a playoff loss at the Byron Nelson.

I didn't even touch on Berger last week in my preview (he opened at +2500 to win). I said I was torn on Mickelson because he usually plays well in Memphis but might have been more focused on the U.S. Open. I wasn't a big fan of his but was clearly wrong. I liked Ryan Palmer at +1800, and he was T68. I did get Dustin Johnson at -150 for a Top 10 as he was fifth at 9-under and might have won if not for a 73 on Saturday. I took a long-shot bet on Chad Campbell for a Top 10 at +550, but he was T34. Also hit a few head-to-head props.

So now the PGA Tour heads to the par-70 Oakmont Country Club outside Pittsburgh -- quite a sports week in that city with the Penguins holding their Stanley Cup parade on Wednesday. No course has held the U.S. Open more than Oakmont. This will be the ninth. And this place is ridiculously hard. There's no water, but the rough is crazy deep, there are bunkers everywhere, the fairways are sloped and the greens are like putting on ice. If you don't drive the ball straight and keep it under the hole on your approach, forget about it making the cut. One par 3 can stretch to 230 yards. One of the par 5s (12th) can get to 667.

Mickelson said last week this might be the hardest course that he has ever played. Justin Spieth said Monday that he doesn't expect anyone to finish under par. Neither do I. Oakmont last hosted in 2007, and Angel Cabrera became the only South American to win this event at 5-over. Cabrera, the only player to break 70 twice that year (69 in Rounds 1 and 4), beat out Tiger Woods (who missed a birdie putt on No. 18 Sunday to force a playoff) and Jim Furyk by a shot. Tiger, sadly, still isn't ready to play, and now you can probably rule him out until at least the PGA Championship. Furyk is in the field and is a +8000 long shot. Cabrera is +20000.

Spieth is the defending champion, stealing the tournament right out of the grasp of Dustin Johnson at the links-style Chambers Bay track outside Seattle a year ago. Actually, Johnson gave it away, it wasn't taken from him. Obviously Spieth was way too young to play here in 2007. The last player to repeat was Curtis Strange in 1988-89.

Remember that there's an 18-hole Monday playoff if there's a tie after Sunday. Certainly the top story is Mickelson looking to complete the career grand slam; he has been second a record six times in this tournament. He missed the cut at 11-over in 2007; by Sunday, 11-over was good enough for a Top-10 finish!

PGA Tour Golf Odds: U.S. Open Favorites

World No. 1 Jason Day is the +650 favorite, and it's hard to argue with that. He's the only three-time winner on Tour this year and has been Top 10 in the U.S. Open four times this decade, including runner-up in 2013 and two years prior.

Rory McIlroy is +700 to win a second U.S. Open; he of course shot a record 16 under at Congressional in 2011. I can probably guarantee you that McIlroy won't even have 16 birdies this week. McIlroy has one Top 10 at a U.S. Open since then, a ninth last year. He also was too young to play here in 2007.

Spieth (+850), Johnson (+1200), Justin Rose, Mickelson and Rickie Fowler (all +2800) round out the favorites. Spieth struggled a couple of weeks ago at the Memorial after finally winning in Texas. Johnson has three Top 10s this decade in the event, led by that runner-up last year. He has yet to win this season despite eight Top 10s. You know all about Mickelson, and I frankly hope he wins.

PGA Tour Picks: U.S. Open Expert Betting Predictions

For a Top 10, I will go with Day (-140), Johnson (+125), Lefty (+250) and Henrik Stenson (+300). You can bet on a top player from several countries. Go Sergio Garcia at -225 as the top Spaniard. I like Louis Oosthuizen, who tied for second last year with Johnson, at +250 for top South African. I'm leaning Stenson as the top European at +1000 and Johnson at +600 as the top American.

Head-to-head, I like Day (-125) over McIlroy (-105) but McIlroy (-125) over Spieth (-105). Ditto Johnson (+110) over Spieth (-140). Go Rose (-130) over Fowler (even), Mickelson (-120) over Adam Scott (-110), Stenson (-110) over Hideki Matsuyama (-120), and Garcia (-120) over Masters champion Danny Willett (-110).

I think either Day or Johnson wins. But I'm going to take the easy way out and go McIlroy, Day, Spieth (even though I'm not that high on him) and Johnson at +130 against the field (-170).

 

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Copa America Quarterfinals
By Marcus DiNitto

The Copa America Centenario quarterfinals kick off Thursday night in Seattle, where host USA takes on Ecuador in match called a coin-flip by the betting market. The likely reward awaiting the winners? A date with powerhouse Argentina in the semis.

Argentina is the odds-on favorite to lift the cup heading into the knockout stages, and it is prohibitively priced at -900 to advance past Venezuela in its quarterfinal on Saturday. After that, neither the U.S. nor Ecuador figures to stand in Argentina’s way.

“I can’t see (them losing Saturday),” Jeff Davis, lead soccer oddsmaker at CG Technology, said of Argentina. “I would assume Venezuela can play 270 minutes against Argentina and not score, and I don’t foresee the United States or Ecuador posing too much of a challenge for them, either.”

Lionel Messi, the star of La Albiceleste, has seen limited action thus far in the tournament due to a rib injury, and while the United States is a particularly expansive country to host a soccer tournament, Argentina’s travels have taken them from Santa Clara to Chicago to Seattle and now to Foxborough. Neither of these factors, though, concerns bookmakers.

When asked about the potential impact of Messi’s injury, Davis said, “I guess it would have to be Mexico or Colombia in the final if they were to get beat, but Argentina’s squad is so strong and so deep – obviously it matters because it’s Messi – but I don’t think it matters in this tournament. It’s not the worst thing to have him on the bench until the 75th minute if you need him.”

The extensive travel, meanwhile, won’t faze players of this caliber, according to Jeff Sherman, who posts the soccer odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

“Their endurance and stamina puts them among the best athletes out there,” Sherman said. “These guys are playing soccer twice a week the entire calendar year with few breaks so, I don’t think it’s a big deal. ... They’re used to dealing with having to play a high volume of games.”

See you in New York?

Forgive Davis and Sherman for not rooting for our neighbors to the south – Mexico represents the largest liability in their futures books, and both like their chances of advancing to the final at MetLife Stadium.

El Tri’s odds were reset at 4/1 at the Westgate and 9/2 at CG once the round of eight was set, and Sherman noted Mexico’s number is higher on the global market. “We’re trying to go higher on teams we’re in better position on,” he said.

Mexico’s game against Chile is, on paper at least, the best matchup of the quarterfinal, with El Tri priced about -125 to advance. Davis, though, isn’t a believer in Chile.

“I never know what to make of Chile,” he said. “They’re one of those talented teams on paper, but when they actually take the game to the pitch, I wonder how good they really are. In theory, they gave a good account of themselves against Argentina in the first half, but I don’t know when you watched it you ever really thought they were going to win. And even though the game was one-sided, they needed an injury-time penalty to beat a pretty weak Bolivian squad. They conceded twice to Panama. So I’m not sure this team is any more than a name. I kind of like Mexico’s chances, frankly.”

Mexico, by the way, has not been beaten in 22 straight games. They also have huge support here in the States.

“They have as much of a crowd behind them as the U.S. does,” Sherman noted. “Their chances (to win the title) are right up there.”

USA vs. Ecuador

Speaking of home-field advantage, soccer-mad Seattle is exactly where the USA wants to be playing, according to Sherman. No other city, with the possible exception of Columbus, brings Seattle’s level of support for the Stars and Stripes.

Still, the game against Ecuador is priced at a pick ‘em, and that’s right where the line should be, according to Davis.

“It’s a tossup,” added Sherman.

Jurgen Klinsmann went with the same starting lineup for all three games of the group stage, but he’ll be forced to make a change with the suspension of right back DeAndre Yedlin. Yedlin’s absence has no impact on the betting line, and, in fact, may even be a plus against the attack-minded Ecuadorians, Davis opined.

“The Yedlin suspension sort of helps them in a weird way in that Yedlin likes to go forward, which is exactly what Ecuador would want to play against, and whoever ends up playing right back, the U.S. is going to have to take a more cautious approach here,” he said.

But Davis still expects an up-and-down affair. “I think both teams get on the board,” he said. “I think it can be a pretty entertaining match.”

Betting trends

Favorites went a staggering 17-3-4 through the group stage, but neither book reads too much into that trend. Sherman emphasized the small sample size, while Davis pointed to the disparity in competition.

“If you look at the bottom teams, they’re all terrible,” Davis said. “Haiti can’t play, Jamaica can’t play, Bolivia can’t play, Panama can’t play. Peru won their group, and you could argue they can’t play. The tournament is so top-and-bottom when you look at the quality of clubs. It really doesn’t surprise me that there weren’t (many) upsets.”

Also, ‘over’ tickets cashed at a healthy 13-9-2 clip. Davis pointed out, though, Group D was the outlier that skewed the totals record.

Every game in Group D had three or more goals, he noted. The group featured Bolivia and Panama who “play no defense, and Argentina who will score at will against those sides.”

Leaving early?

Brazil’s woes continued at Copa America, as the five-time world champion was bounced from the tournament via a 1-0 loss to Peru. There weren’t many takers on Brazil in the futures market, nor will the team’s early exit have much of an impact on Copa handle in Vegas during the knockout stages.

Brazil made it pretty clear that this summer’s Rio Olympics are of higher priority than Copa America.

“People shied away from them (in the futures market) based on their stance heading into the tournament, and they didn’t even get that much support in their matches, either,” Sherman said. “They basically (said), ‘we’re more focused on the Olympics at home than we are on this tournament,’ and everyone went along with that premise.”

Both Sherman and Davis said as long as the U.S. and Mexico are still around, handle should be at the level they expect for Copa.

“Handle will be based on how far the U.S. and Mexico go,” said Davis. “And Argentina, because everybody likes to play the favorites in the individual games, and given their star power, they’ll be a popular side. But really, it’s the USA and Mexico being in longer that increases the handle. Although it also increases the chances the books lose, so it’s kind of a double-edge sword.”

Odds to win 2016 Copa America (Westgate)
Argentina 2/3
Mexico 4/1
Colombia 6/1
Chile 8/1
USA 20/1
Ecuador 20/1
Peru 50/1
Venezuela 100/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Group B - England vs. Wales

Date: Thursday, June 16
Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
TV/Time: ESPN, 9:00 a.m. ET

In terms of demand for tickets, England’s game with Wales is the most sought after fixture in the group stages of Euro 2016. It is the first all-British affair at a major tournament since 1996, and tens of thousands of English and Welsh fans have made their way to Lens for this game. It promises to be one of the most entertaining games of the tournament.

This is because all 22 players bar Gareth Bale play in English football, and so are used to a certain reckless, high-tempo style of football. England - who have a population roughly 17 times bigger than Wales - are the 11/20 favourites, with the Welsh 6/1. A draw is available at 16/5.

However the best bet here may be to back over 2.5 goals at 11/10. England had enough chances against RUssia to score far more than one goal, and Wales, who looked like under 2.5 bankers at the begninning of the tournamemt, were more open than expected against Slovakia. They will be desperate to win this, and having got maximum points from their opening game, can play with a little more freedom than they otherwise might. At odds against, over 2.5 is a worthwile bet.

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10

Group C - Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland

Date: Thursday, June 16
Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
TV/Time: ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET

Before the tournament started there was some evens knocking around about Ukraine beating Northern Ireland, and while that has long since disappeared, there is still some value in backing Mykhaylo Fomenko’s side to defeat the Ulstermen at 4/6.

Ukraine were unfortunate to go down 2-0 to Germany, having matched their opponents for long periods. Ukraine looked solid in defence and dangerous in attack. Wingers Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko are well-known, but 20 year-old attacking midfielder Viktor Kovalenko really stood out as one to watch.

Northern Ireland put in the most limited performance of the opening round of games, losing 1-0. They never got anywhere near scoring. Defensively they are reasonably solid, but they looked overawed by their first game in a major tournament since the 1980s. They did well to qualify from a rather easy group, but they have been put into a very tough section in France and will be lucky to come away with any points.

Ukraine are much better than Northern Ireland and are value favourites.

Prediction: Ukraine to win at 4/6

Group C - Germany vs. Poland

Date: Thursday, June 16
Location: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
TV/Time: ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET

The third of three games on Thursday where the favourite is around the 1/2 mark sees Germany take on Poland in a repeat of qualifying for these European Championships. And of all the outsiders, it is Poland who jump out as the value bet.

Poland beat Germany 2-0 early in qualifying, and while it could be argued that that was because of a German hangover shortly after winning the World Cup, it signalled that Poland are one of Europe’s most improved national teams.

They lived up to their billing as promising underdogs in their opening game, beating Northern Ireland 1-0. It should have been a much less close scoreline. Arkadiusz Milik and Robert Lewandowski’s partnership worked very well in the opening game, and the Poles never looked vulnerable defensively.

Germany are a rather unappealing 8/15 for a match they do not need to win to qualify. Poland only finished one point behind their opponents in qualifying, and at 6/1 look a good bet.

Prediction: Poland to win at 6/1

 

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NBA notebook: Cavs' fight for life returns to Cleveland
By The Sports Xchange

The Cleveland Cavaliers will try to make history and stay alive by winning Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.
Home and facing a must-win, the Cavs recall the agony of the 2015 NBA Finals when the Warriors sealed the championship in Game 6 at Quicken Loans Arena. Only two of 32 teams down 3-1 in NBA Finals have managed to take the series to seven games, the last time in 1966.
Cleveland's goal, of course, is to make sure history doesn't repeat for the second straight year. Cavaliers stars LeBron James and Kyrie Irving scored 41 points apiece in Cleveland's 112-97 victory in Game 5, denying the Warriors a chance to repeat on their home court at Oracle Arena.

--Golden State center Andrew Bogut will miss the remainder of the NBA Finals against Cleveland with a left knee injury.
An MRI revealed that Bogut will not require surgery, the Warriors announced. Bogut will be sidelined 6-8 weeks.
The 31-year-old Australian suffered the injury at the 10:30 mark of the third quarter in Game 5 at Oracle Arena on Monday night. The 7-foot Bogut collided with Cleveland guard J.R. Smith during the 112-97 loss to the Cavaliers. Bogut collected three rebounds and three blocks but did not score a point.

--Nearly four months after he was given three to six months to live, NBA sideline reporter Craig Sager will be part of the ESPN broadcast crew for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Friday in Cleveland.
Sager, a Turner Sports employee for 34 years, gets the chance to call his first Finals. He has been battling leukemia since the April 2014 diagnosis and was given three to six months to live by doctors treating him in February.
Sager, 64, has received bone-marrow and stem-cell transplants from his son, Craig. He said in a March interview with HBO that doctors were blunt but careful not to project a hopeless forecast.

--Memphis Grizzlies guard Jordan Adams is undergoing cartilage transplant surgery on his right knee.
The Grizzlies announced the transplant was being performed Wednesday at the Hospital for Special Surgery in New York by Dr. Riley Williams.
Adams, 21, underwent a lateral meniscectomy on the same knee last August after sustaining a partially torn meniscus during an offseason workout.

--Pat Garrity has been promoted to assistant general manager and Bob Beyer to associate head coach, Detroit Pistons head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy announced.
Also as part of some restructuring within the basketball operations staff, Andrew Loomis has been promoted to chief of staff and Otis Smith joins the Pistons' staff as director of player development/assistant coach while assistant coach Brendan Malone will transition to a special assignment scout, residing in New York.
In addition, Quentin Richardson is leaving the organization for personal reasons. Richardson joined the Pistons in 2014 as director of player development after a 13-year NBA playing career.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Favored Cavaliers battling some nasty NBA betting trends in Game 6
By JASON LOGAN

The Cleveland Cavaliers have jumped out of the frying pan and into the fire after avoiding elimination with a stunning 112-97 road win over the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

The Cavaliers, who are now down 3-2 to the Warriors in the championship series after twin 41-point efforts from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving Monday, find themselves not only fighting a motivated Golden State squad (one with star forward Draymond Green returning from suspension), but also battling an eye-opening NBA betting trend as sportsbooks currently have Cleveland pegged as a 2.5-point home favorite for Game 6 Thursday.

The Cavs are a rare betting favorite facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs, a situation that has produced a 50-72-2 ATS record (71-53 SU) going back to the 1991 NBA Playoffs, with those faves covering the spread just 41 percent of the time. Narrowing down those numbers to just favorites down 3-2 in the series, and that NBA chalk is a measly 26-41-0 ATS (35-32 SU) – a 39 percent ATS belly ache.

Betting history continues to pile on LeBron & Co. heading into Game 6. Looking exclusively at the NBA Finals, there have been six teams, down 3-2 in the series, favored in Game 6 of the finals in the past 25 years. Just one of those favorites managed to cover the pointspread (2010 Los Angeles Lakers), finishing 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU).

The size of the spread has also played a significant factor when it comes to favorites facing elimination. Favorites of -3 or less (Cleveland opened -2 and moved to -2.5) have gone a collective 12-25-0 ATS or 32 percent (14-23 SU), with teams stuck in a 3-2 hole producing a 9-17-0 ATS mark (10-16 SU) for a 35 percent success rate at the window. Those favorites of -3 or less down 3-2 in the NBA Finals have been outscored 94.5-92.4 in Game 6 since 1991, equaling a 10-16-0 Over/Under count.

On the season, the Cavaliers are 7-5 SU and ATS as favorites of -3 or less including the postseason. The Warriors, on the other hand, have been betting underdogs just 10 times this season, boasting a 7-3 ATS record as pups including a 2-1 ATS mark in the playoffs.

Golden State is 3-2 ATS in the 2016 NBA Finals and has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games versus Cleveland, including a 4-1 ATS record in its last five contests inside Quicken Loans Arena.

Over/Under note: Favorites facing elimination in the NBA Playoffs have produced a 56-66 Over/Under record in the past 25 years (32-35 O/U in Game 6 situations), with faves trailing 3-2 in the NBA Finals finishing with a 2-4 O/U mark in Game 6.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game 6 Props - Best Bets

The NBA Finals continues on Thursday with Game 6 between the Cavaliers and Warriors from Quicken Loans Arena. If you’re hesitant to back the side or total for the second contest in this series, then we suggest you take a closer look at the available player props.

Our trio of NBA experts produced a 6-2 overall record for Game 5 and those winners produced over nine units of profit.

Chris David: 8-3 (+1405)
Tony Mejia: 10-5 (+1080)
Kevin Rogers: 8-6 (+20)

Based on a five-unit bankroll, their top props are listed for Game 6 below.

Chris David

2 Units – Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)

Harrison Barnes is a tough player to figure out and he’s been very inconsistent in this year’s playoffs but for whatever reason, he’s produced better numbers on the road versus Cleveland. In the first two road battles versus the Cavaliers, he combined for 29 points, rebounds and assists in Game 3 and a total of 24 in Game 4. He’s coming off his second worst shooting performance (2-of-14) of the playoffs in Game 5 and I believe he bounces back in this spot. For what it’s worth, Barnes averaged 15.3 PPG in the regular season in games played on Thursday, which was the highest daily average.

2 Units – Under Kevin Love Total Points+Rebounds 17 ½ (-105)

After putting up 17 points and 13 boards in the opener of this series, Kevin Love has fallen off the map due to the concussion injury and more importantly the matchup against Golden State. Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue knows he’s a liability defensively and his minutes have been limited, more now with the Warriors likely going even smaller with no Bogut. If the game gets out of hand, Love will be subbed out and could be watching his final game in Cleveland from the bench.

1 Unit – Richard Jefferson will make a 3-Point Field Goal (+180)

In the 14 playoff games that Jefferson has attempted a 3-point shot, he’s made at least one in nine of those games. Since my above prop is leaning to Love being replaced by Jefferson, I’m going to double-up and hope RJ hoists at least one or two from 3-point land. He’s shooting 41 percent from the playoffs and that’s a solid number to back, especially with a return close to 2/1 odds.


Kevin Rogers

2 Units - Under Draymond Green Total Points 15 (-115)

Green returns from his suspension, but struggled in both games at Quicken Loans Arena. In the two road games at Cleveland, Green scored a total of 15 points, while failing to hit a three-pointer in eight attempts. Green will make more of an impact defensively on James and should grab double-digit rebounds, but not score more than 15 points.

2 Units - Over Harrison Barnes Total Points+Rebounds+Assists 17 ½ (-115)

For as bad as Green has been in Cleveland in this series, Barnes has been the opposite. The former UNC standout stunk in Game 5 by shooting 2-of-14 from the floor for 5 points, but averaged 16 points per game in two games at the Q. Barnes pulled down eight rebounds in each of those games, as he should have a nice bounce-back in Game 6.

1 Unit - Over Kyrie Irving Total Made Free Throws 3 ½ (-125)

Irving blew up for 41 points in Game 5, while attempting at least 24 shots in each of the last three games. After attempting 12 free throws in Game 1, Irving has been to the line only 10 times in the last four games. However, Irving is going to get plenty of opportunities to score and is an excellent free throw shooter, so if he can attack the basket in Game 6, the 'over' should cash.


Tony Mejia

2 Units – Over LeBron James Rebounds+Assists 19 ½ (-115)

After a dominant Game 5 on the glass in which he grabbed 16 boards, James isn't likely to surpass that number, but should break into double-digits in assists, surpassing his series average and likely notching a triple-double, win or lose.

1.5 Units – Over Stephen Curry Points 28 (-115)

After a brutal Game 3 where he wasn't mentally ready at the onset, Curry played his best, quieting critics as well as the Cleveland crowd. Expect him to at least match his regular-season average of 30 points here.

1.5 Units – Over Andre Iguodala Rebounds+Assists 10 ½ (-115)

Even with Draymond Green back, the Warriors should get plenty out of Andre Iguodala, who had 11 boards and six dimes in Game 5 and will again be involved in all facets off the bench.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Finals Game 6 Preview
By Tony Mejia

NBA Finals - Game 6 - Warriors lead 3-2
Golden State at Cleveland (-2/207.5), 9:00 p.m. ET - ABC

The NBA Finals are back in Cleveland. Considering where things stood last time they were in town last Friday night, that’s a mild upset, but don’t believe for a second the Cavs are playing with house money.

No, there’s genuine pressure. Not only are they two-point favorites to get the series back to Oakland for a Game 7, but a loss would mean that the Warriors would be celebrating another title one year to the date of last year’s conquest.

A loss would not only make LeBron James 0-for-3 in NBA Finals with his hometown team, but it would also mean that all three times, the visitors celebrated winning the title in a city that hasn’t claimed one of their own in any major sport since 1964. That’s cold, but very Cleveland-like.

Worse yet, Stephen Curry would claim a second straight title in a year where he was named regular-season MVP, dancing and partying it up at LeBron’s house while joining him, Michael Jordan and Bill Russell as the only players in league history to accomplish that feat in consecutive seasons.

James and Kyrie Irving come in after carving out their own piece of history, becoming the first teammates to each top the 40-point mark in the NBA’s championship round. They combined to shoot 33-for-54 (61 pct) against the Draymond Green-less Warriors, doing so while helping the Cavs buckle down defensively in allowing just 13 fourth-quarter points in the 112-97 win.

“They’re special players. They’re capable of having special nights,” said Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue. “We know that, we’ve seen it before. If they didn’t have it going then we’d have run other things to get other guys involved, but with those two guys having a special night, we rode them and they came through for us.”

Although returning home should help them maintain a rhythm, Green’s return from suspension means the Warriors will have their defensive driving force back in the fold. Without his presence helping Andre Iguodala guard James and communicating on switches, the Warriors were unable to get the stops they needed to maintain a rhythm at both ends. Head coach Steve Kerr made no secret of his disappointment with how Golden State responded without him in Game 5, but conceded everyone is obviously better with Green on the floor.

Green felt he let teammates down regardless of whether he agreed with the decision, calling it “awful” that he missed the game and referring to himself as a “terrible teammate” for putting his guys in that situation.

“I owe it to my teammates to come back and give all that I have, all that I can do to better the situation,” Green said. “I have a strong belief that if I played Game 5 we win, but I didn’t because I put myself in a situation where I wasn’t able to play.”

Curry’s rough shooting night (8-for-21) compounded the issue, as did Harrison Barnes finishing 2-for-14 while playing 38 minutes, the most he’s played all series due to Green’s absence. Losing Andrew Bogut to a knee injury after just eight minutes of action didn’t help matters, throwing Kerr’s rotations further out of whack. Little went right for Golden State, spoiling what Curry felt would’ve been a dream ending where cameras would’ve memorably followed Green as he ran over from the Oakland Coliseum to celebrate a championship. Instead, the Warriors’ emotional leader will have to try and make up for the missed opportunity while reining in his temper since there would be dire circumstances if he’s whistled for another flagrant foul or two technicals.

“He knows that if he gets another flagrant he misses Game 7. He’s well aware of that so I’d be shocked if anything happened on that front,” said Kerr. “He feels bad enough as it is about missing Game 5. He’s not going to put himself at risk of missing another game.”

It’s imperative that he remains on the floor since Bogut has been ruled out for the next 6-to-8 weeks with a left knee sprain. It remains to be seen how Kerr chooses to start the game without his center, staying close to status quo by bumping up Festus Ezeli or going small right from the jump by leaving Iguodala in the starting lineup and putting Green as his primary big.

Whether they see it right from the onset or not, the Cavs are prepared to see Green at center when it matters most.

“Their money lineup is going small with Green at the five,” said Lue, “so there’s not really a big difference in preparing for that.

Although that lineup isn’t necessarily a lock to produce a fast pace since it’s among their top defensive group, the Warriors are 1-4 this postseason when held under 100 points, so they won’t shy away if the Cavs opt to get up and down on their home floor.

Depending on when and where you bet the total in Game 5, you could’ve won, lost or pushed. Most betting shops closed at 209 and that’s exactly where the score finished. The ‘over’ was definitely the right side since the score was knotted 61-61 at halftime, but 32 combined fourth-quarter points turned some expected winning tickets into losers.

Game 6 opened at 207 ½ and that number has held steady as of Wednesday, climbing to 208 at some spots. NBA Totals expert Chris David weighs in on Thursday’s matchup with his quick handicap.

“The Draymond Green effect not only played a factor defensively in Game 5 but his absence really screwed up Golden State offensively as they settled for too many jumpers. The Warriors took a series-high 42 attempts from 3-point land in Game 5 and only made 14 of them. As a team, Golden State shot 36 percent from the field and only scored 13 in the final quarter yet they still finished with 97 points,” said David. “Holding the Warriors under 100 points in a game doesn’t happen often. Including Game 5, the feat has only been accomplished 12 times this season.

“Looking back at the 11 situations, Golden State rebounded with an average score 118.4 points per game. In this year’s playoffs, the Warriors were held under the century mark three times and they posted 120, 104 and 108 in the next game, all victories as well. In case you’re wondering, Golden State has gone 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread after being held under 100 and the ‘over’ went 7-4 in those games. It’s hard to go against these seasonal trends and I’m going to buy Golden State’s team total ‘over’ 102 ½ in Game 6. I would lean to the game total going ‘over’ as well with the series wrapping up.”

The Cavs will likely do everything in their power to avoid getting bogged down, since they’re 0-3 in the series when failing to top the century mark. They’re 8-0 at home this postseason when topping 100 points and lost Game 4 108-97 the only time they didn’t.

On that note, Golden State has made an NBA-record 276 3-pointers during these playoffs, while Cleveland has made 242, now good for second all-time. This may very well be a situation where the team that strokes it best from beyond the arc survives. Normally you wouldn’t want to challenge the Warriors at their own game, but the Cavs have seen role players Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye find the range at home enough to trust they’ll hold their own.

Live by the 3, die by 3. Wish there was a total set on how many times you might here that old adage uttered on Thursday night because the over would be a lock.

The Cavs are looking to become the third team among the last 33 to have fallen behind 3-1 in an NBA Finals to force a Game 7. The 1951 Knicks and ’66 Lakers managed to force a deciding game. It hasn’t been done in 50 years. No NBA team has ever rallied to win it all after backing themselves into that corner.