Thursday 4/28/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
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[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 20:05

Villarreal

v

Liverpool

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU		6/4	23/10	21/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT VILLARREAL	RECENT FORM
HWHWAWALALHD​ Most recent​	Unknown	ADHWHWAWHWHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Liverpool have lost one of their last seven away matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Liverpool are unbeaten in 12 Europa League matches this season and they can show their resilience by beating Villarreal at El Madrigal on Thursday. The contest should not hold any fears for Liverpool, who are going from strength to strength under Jurgen Klopp and were the better side in their 1-1 draw away to Borussia Dortmund.

RECOMMENDATION: Liverpool
2


REFEREE: Damir Skomina STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Europa League TODAY 20:05

Shakhtar

v

Seville

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT S		8/5	12/5	15/8	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SHAKHTAR	RECENT FORM
HWAWADHWHWAD​ Most recent​	2 - 3	AWALHL*HDALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Shakhtar have lost one of their last eight home games

EXPERT VERDICT: Seville have failed to win in 17 away games in La Liga but have fared better on Europa League road trips with one loss in three and they can hold Shakhtar Donetsk to a draw. Shakhtar have eliminated Schalke, Anderlecht and Braga, but face a Seville side bidding for a fifth trophy in 11 years.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
2


REFEREE: Szymon Marciniak STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

German Bundesliga Fr 29Apr 19:30

Augsburg

v

Cologne

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU		13/10	23/10	21/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT AUGSBURG	RECENT FORM
ADHLALAWHWAW​ Most recent​	0 - 0 2 - 1 2 - 0	AWHLADHLAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Cologne have lost just one of their last ten away games

EXPERT VERDICT: Three consecutive wins have vaulted Augsburg into a much safer position in the Bundesliga but they look short enough to make it four against Cologne. The Billy Goats have been solid on the road this season and look worth backing to gain at least a point.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

Spanish La Liga Fr 29Apr 19:30

Sp. Gijon

v

Eibar

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS3		1/2	3	6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SP. GIJON	RECENT FORM
HWADHLADHWAL​ Most recent​	3 - 2 2 - 0	ADHLALHWALHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Eibar have scored in five of their last seven matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Sporting Gijon are fighting for their La Liga survival and bookmakers expect them to beat an Eibar team with nothing to play for. However, the Basque minnows still carry a goal threat and they are expected to get on the scoresheet even if Sporting eventually get the job done.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A Sa 30Apr 17:00

Udinese

v

Torino

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT S		19/20	5/2	11/4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT UDINESE	RECENT FORM
ADHWALHDHWAL​ Most recent​	3 - 2 0 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0	HLAWHWAWALHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Udinese have won three of their last five home games

EXPERT VERDICT: A home win would leave Udinese nine points ahead of 18th placed Palermo with three matches left to play and they should all but confirm their survival against Torino. The visitors are destined for a mid-table finish and look likely to offer little resistance.

RECOMMENDATION: Udinese
2

 

[superbeets]

German Bundesliga Sa 30Apr 17:30

B Leverkusen

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Hertha Berlin

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU		4/7	3	9/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT B LEVERKUSEN	RECENT FORM
HDAWHWAWHWAW​ Most recent​	4 - 2 2 - 1 3 - 3 1 - 1	HWALHDALHLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hertha have conceded 14 goals in their last five matches

EXPERT VERDICT: It’s been a tough run of fixtures for Hertha and it doesn’t get any easier. Back-to-back defeats to nil by Dortmund and Bayern in the cup and league respectively, precede a massive match at Leverkusen. There is only five points between them in the table though in form terms they are poles apart.

RECOMMENDATION: Leverkusen
4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golfers to Bet - Zurich Classic

Tournament: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Date: Thursday, April 28st
Venue: TPC Louisiana
Location: Avondale, LA

The Zurich Classic kicks off this week as the PGA members head to the Gulf Coast for a tourney which has been held since 1938. There are typically a lot of birdies at this event, with the victors carding at least a score of 15-under-par since 2010.

Last year, it was Justin Rose who emerged as the winner. Rose was on fire all weekend, finishing the tournament at 22-under. Cameron Tringale did, however, put up a fight. Tringale shot a 21-under and had plenty of chances to get himself to the top of the leaderboard.

Both guys will be back for this tournament in 2016, along with guys like Jason Day and Rickie Fowler. Charley Hoffman will also be playing this tournament. He is fresh off of a victory at the Valero Texas Open, so he’s going to be confident coming into this event.

With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might be coming away victorious on Sunday:

Golfers to Bet

Jason Day (5/1) - Jason Day has a chance to win whenever he is playing in a tournament and that isn’t going to be changing this weekend. Day is going to be coming into this one in search of his first ever victory at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and that will certainly motivate him on Thursday. Not only will he be hungry for a win, but Day also happens to be playing some great golf this season. He has won two tournaments on the year and has two other top-10 finishes on the season. In a relatively weak field, the 5/1 odds he’s getting are really not that bad. He’s worth putting a few units on before Thursday.

Justin Rose (8/1) - It’s very difficult to find a way to avoid taking Rose this weekend. He has been excellent at TPC Louisiana lately, coming in the top-15 at each of his past four appearances in this event. Not only has he consistently been near the top of this tournament’s leaderboard, but he also won this event in 2015. Rose’s 22-under was extremely impressive and it’s hard to believe he won’t be able to do something close to that again this weekend. He’ll also be extremely hungry coming into this one, as he has not yet won a tournament this season. He’s far too good of a player to not have one win this year and he’s worth taking at 8/1, as it’s extremely likely Rose will come away with the victory on Sunday.

Billy Horschel (18/1) - Billy Horschel is not a very consistent golfer, but he is playing very well coming into this tournament. At last week’s Valero Texas Open, Horschel shot nine-under and that was good for a tie for fourth place in the tournament. He’ll now carry that momentum into an event that has been kind to him in the past. Horschel won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans back in 2013, shooting a 20-under to defeat D.A. Points by a stroke. That type of play should be repeatable for Horschel, and that makes him a good value at 18/1. He’s worth putting a unit or two on this weekend.

Cameron Tringale (50/1) - As previously mentioned, Tringale was the runner-up at last year’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans. The 28-year-old shot a 21-under in the tournament and that would have been good enough to win nine of the past 10 tournaments in Avondale. If he can recapture some of that magic then he would pay off huge for some people this weekend. He’s a talented player and the 50/1 odds he’s getting are very enticing. He’s worth putting a unit or half-unit on for Thursday.

Odds to win Zurich Classic -

Jason Day 11/2
Justin Rose 17/2
Rickie Fowler 10/1
Billy Horschel 20/1
Smylie Kaufman 20/1
Daniel Berger 25/1
Jason Dufner 30/1
Charley Hoffman 35/1
Chris Kirk 45/1
Charles Howell III 50/1
Marc Leishman 50/1
Byeong Hun An 55/1
Cameron Tringale 55/1
Danny Lee 60/1
Jamie Lovemark 60/1
Ben Martin 75/1
Patton Kizzire 75/1
Russell Henley 75/1
Boo Weekley 95/1
Keegan Bradley 95/1
Lucas Glover 95/1
Si Woo Kim 95/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Freddie Jacobson 100/1
Gary Woodland 100/1
Anirban Lahiri 110/1
George McNeill 110/1
David Hearn 120/1
Jamie Donaldson 120/1
Ricky Barnes 120/1
Steve Stricker 120/1
K.J. Choi 130/1
Kyle Reifers 130/1
Chez Reavie 140/1
Luke List 140/1
Sean OHair 140/1
Brian Harman 150/1
Chad Collins 150/1
Colt Knost 150/1
David Toms 150/1
Harold Varner III 150/1
Hunter Mahan 150/1
Jason Bohn 150/1
Jerry Kelly 150/1
Jhonattan Vegas 150/1
John Huh 150/1
John Senden 150/1
Jonas Blixt 150/1
Kyle Stanley 150/1
Martin Piller 150/1
Morgan Hoffmann 150/1
Nick Taylor 150/1
Patrick Rodgers 150/1
Robert Streb 150/1
Roberto Castro 150/1
Scott Langley 150/1
Scott Pinckney 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Seung yul Noh 150/1
Spencer Levin 150/1
Stuart Appleby 150/1
Tom Hoge 150/1
Whee Kim 150/1
Will Wilcox 150/1
Chad Campbell 175/1
Blayne Barber 180/1
Jason Gore 180/1
Troy Merritt 180/1
Adam Hadwin 200/1
Alex Cejka 200/1
Andres Romero 200/1
Andrew Loupe 200/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Brendon de Jonge 200/1
Bronson Burgoon 200/1
Bryce Molder 200/1
Chesson Hadley 200/1
Chris Stroud 200/1
Hudson Swafford 200/1
Jonathan Byrd 200/1
Michael Thompson 200/1
Will MacKenzie 200/1
Brendon Todd 220/1
James Hahn 220/1
Luke Guthrie 220/1
Mark Hubbard 220/1
Ben Crane 225/1
Carlos Ortiz 250/1
Erik Compton 250/1
Greg Owen 250/1
Henrik Norlander 250/1
Jon Curran 250/1
Matt Every 250/1
Sam Saunders 250/1
Sung Kang 250/1
Tim Wilkinson 250/1
Wes Roach 250/1
Cameron Percy 275/1
Brett Stegmaier 300/1
Brian Davis 300/1
Brian Stuard 300/1
Brice Garnett 300/1
Carl Pettersson 300/1
D.J. Trahan 300/1
Hiroshi Iwata 300/1
Jeff Overton 300/1
Kelly Kraft 300/1
Retief Goosen 300/1
Rod Pampling 300/1
Steve Marino 300/1
Tyrone Van Aswegen 300/1
Vaughn Taylor 300/1
D.A. Points 350/1
Michael Kim 350/1
Robert Garrigus 350/1
Steve Wheatcroft 350/1
Thomas Aiken 350/1
Alex Prugh 400/1
Andrew Landry 400/1
Bobby Wyatt 400/1
Geoff Ogilvy 400/1
Vijay Singh 400/1
Derek Ernst 450/1
Joe Affrunti 450/1
Justin Hicks 450/1
Michael Putnam 450/1
Rhein Gibson 450/1
Richard H. Lee 450/1
Ryan Ruffels 450/1
Abraham Ancer 500/1
Andres Gonzales 500/1
Benjamin Taylor 500/1
Billy Hurley III 500/1
Brian Gay 500/1
Chris DiMarco 500/1
D.H. Lee 500/1
Darron Stiles 500/1
Dawie Van Der Walt 500/1
Dicky Pride 500/1
J.J. Henry 500/1
Julien Brun 500/1
Ken Duke 500/1
Lucas Lee 500/1
Miguel Angel Carballo 500/1
Mike Weir 500/1
Rob Oppenheim 500/1
Robert Allenby 500/1
Tim Yelverton 500/1
Tom Gillis 500/1
Trevor Immelman 500/1
Tyler Aldridge 500/1

Odds Subject to Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

10 Players to Watch: Zurich Classic of New Orleans
By Tom LaMarre, The Sports Xchange

1. Jason Day, Australia -- The No. 1 player in the World Golf Rankings has had a week off after he said he was tired during a tie for 23rd in the RBC Heritage. That came after he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the WGC-Dell Match Play before tying for 10th in the Masters. Other than a missed cut in the Farmers Insurance Open, he hasn't been outside the top 25 in seven of his eight events this year. Day is playing in New Orleans for the fourth time, and last year he posted four scores in the 60s at TPC Louisiana to wind up in a tie for fourth, three strokes behind champion Justin Rose, after holding the lead through 36 holes thanks to a 7-under-par 65 in round two.

2. Rickie Fowler, United States -- Coming off a missed cut in the Masters, which he entered as one of the favorites, Rickie tries to bounce back in his sixth appearance in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Based on his history in the Big Easy, that might be a big task after he missed the cut at TPC Louisiana the last two years, although he did tie for 10th there in 2012 -- when he shot 7-under-par 65 in the second round. Fowler, who has won four times around the world the last 12 months, including the 2015 Players Championship, hasn't won this season on the PGA Tour despite five results in the top 10. He came close while losing to Hideki Matsuyama of Japan in a playoff at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

3. Justin Rose, England -- Even though the defending champion hasn't won since hoisting the trophy at TPC Louisiana last year, Rose's game seems to be in fine shape with the Players and three summer major championships looming. He is coming off a tie for 10th in the Masters, one of his four top-10 finishes this season, and he has finished in the top 25 in six of his last eight tournaments. Last year in the Zurich Classic, Rose sank a 10-foot birdie putt on the 17th hole and a 14-footer on the last to finish off a 6-under-par 66 and beat Cameron Tringale by one stroke. That gave him victories on the PGA Tour in each of the last six seasons, one behind Dustin Johnson on the active list.

4. Billy Horschel, United States -- Starting to again play like the guy who captured the 2014 FedEx Cup, Horshcel returns this week to TPC Louisiana, where he claimed the first of his three PGA Tour titles in 2013. He stayed patient through two rain delays and holed a 27-foot birdie putt on the final hole to close out an 8-under-par 64 and beat D.A. Points by one stroke. That came after Horschel reeled off six straight birdies after the first rain delay to take the lead. He hasn't been in the top 25 in any of his other four starts in New Orleans. Horschel tied for fourth last week in the Valero Texas Open and tied for 17th in the Masters among his six finishes in the top 25 this season.

5. Daniel Berger, United States -- The 2015 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year got off to a slow start this season, but has posted his first top-10 finishes in his last two starts, a tie for fifth in Shell Houston Open and a tie for 10th in his first Masters. That came after he missed the cut in his first two major appearances as a pro, the Open Championship at St. Andrews and the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits last year. After missing the cut in three of his previous four outings, he showed he was on the way back with a tie for 11th in the Valspar Championship on the Florida swing. Berger is making his second appearance at TPC Louisiana, where he tied for sixth a year ago, posting four scores in the 60s.

6. Charley Hoffman, United States -- After playing well for several weeks, other than his meltdowns in the final round, Hoffman broke through last week when he sank a nine-foot birdie putt on the last hole to win the Valero Texas Open. That gave him his fourth PGA Tour victory and first since the 2014 OHL Classic at Mayakoba. If he can make a quick turnaround, he could again be in the mix in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, which he is playing for the 10th time. He finally seemed to figure out TPC Louisiana last year, when he finished in a tie for fourth that was his first top-10 result in the event. His previous best was a tie for 19th in 2009, when he took himself out of the chase with a 77 in round three.

7. Chris Kirk, United States -- It seems that Kirk finally is regaining his form after struggling since he sustained a broken hand while playing with one of his children on the family farm when he was preparing to head to the Open Championship at St. Andrews last July. He tied for 12th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and tied for fifth in the WGC-Dell Match Play before missing the cut in the Masters. Then he tied for 23rd in the RBC Heritage by falling back with a closing 74 but tied for 13th in the Valero Texas Open. Kirk, who has four victories on the PGA Tour since 2011, is playing in the Zurich Classic for the third time and tied for 21st in 2013 after missing the cut a year earlier.

8. Ricky Barnes, United States -- Still winless on the PGA Tour in 122 starts after being unable to hold the 54-hole lead while closing with a 2-over-par 74 in the Valero Texas Open, Barnes at least seems to be headed in the right direction. He finished in a tie for fourth at TPC San Antonio after tying for ninth in the RBC Heritage a week earlier. The 2002 U.S. Amateur champion, who was likened to a young Arnold Palmer when he came out of the University of Arizona, obviously struggled with the expectations but might be able to carve out some success after age 35 the way Jimmy Walker has. Barnes is playing in the Zurich Classic for the seventh time but has yet to finish in the top 40.

8. Jamie Lovemark, United States -- The great things that were predicted for Lovemark when he came out of USC in 2009 have not materialized, but at 28, he seems to be healthy and his name has popped up on leaderboards on the PGA Tour this season. After winning the 2007 NCAA championship and claiming the Nicklaus, Palmer, Mickelson and Haskins awards in college, he won the money title and the Player of the Year award on what is now the Web.com Tour in 2011. Then Lovemark was sidetracked by injuries, including a back ailment that required surgery. However, he has four top-10 results this season, including ties for sixth in the CareerBuilder Challenge and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Lovemark missed the cuts in his only two appearances at TPC Louisiana, in 2012 and 2014.

10. Seung-yul Noh, South Korea -- The 2014 Zurich Classic of New Orleans champion hoped to delay his two-year mandatory military service back home with a strong season on the PGA Tour to make the South Korean team for the Olympic Games, but it's not happening. He doesn't have a top-10 finish and the best of his three in the top 25 was a tie for 17th in the CareerBuilder Classic. Noh, who has four victories as a pro, badly needs another performance like the one he had two years ago at TPC Louisiana, where he opened with 65-68-65 and held on with a 71 for a two-stroke victory over Andrew Svoboda and Robert Streb. After opening with a 73, he withdrew from his title defense because of a back injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PGA Tour Picks: Zurich Classic Of New Orleans Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews

And that's three winners on my picks for 2016!

At last week's Valero Texas Open against a pretty weak field, my choice to win the tournament was Charley Hoffman at a nice Bovada price +3000. My logic was that Hoffman had played every Texas Open since the tournament moved to TPC San Antonio and hadn't finished worse than T13. He was third there in 2013 and second in 2011.

On Sunday, Hoffman finally broke through with a win, draining a 9-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole and shooting a final-round 69 to finish at 12-under 276 and one shot ahead of Patrick Reed. Entering the week, Hoffman ranked just 200th in final-round scoring average this season and had not posted a final-round score better than 73 in his last six. It was Hoffman's fourth career PGA Tour win and the 19th tournament of the season to be decided by a shot or in a playoff.

Reed, a San Antonio native, also birdied No. 18 but missed very makeable ones on the previous two holes. He leads the PGA Tour with eight Top 10s this season, two more than anyone else, but has yet to win. Third-round leader Ricky Barnes, looking for his first Tour win in his 222nd start, shot a final-round 74 to finish T4.

In addition on Hoffman at +3000 to win, I also hit on him at +250 for a Top 10. Jimmy Walker was the defending champion and also a San Antonio native whom I thought would have a Top 10, but he missed the cut. So did Phil Mickelson, another guy I thought would contend. Frankly, I didn't get much right other than Hoffman last week, but I'll take that every time.

Before I get to this week's preview of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, I want to talk about Tiger Woods for a minute. First off, I highly recommend an ESPN.com story on him recently posted by Wright Thompson. Truly remarkable information in there. Second, Woods was finally spotted playing some casual holes in public this week and said he felt pretty good after. He also officially registered for the U.S. Open next month, although that still doesn't mean he will play. But you are hearing rumblings that Tiger could debut at the Wells Fargo event in Charlotte next week. Golf is still more interesting with Woods around, so I hope that's true.

This week the Tour makes its lone stop in Louisiana for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana. It's a so-so field with six of the world's Top 35 entered, led by No. 1 Jason Day and Hoffman looking to go back-to-back.

The defending champion is Justin Rose. Last year, the Englishman birdied the final two holes on Sunday to shoot 66 and finish at 22-under 266, a record total on the course. He beat out Cameron Tringale, who birdied his 72nd hole, by a shot. Rose played his final 66 holes without a bogey. Expect plenty of scoring again, as last year the field averaged 69.951 strokes, easiest among all stand-alone par 72s in 2014-15.

Golf Odds: Zurich Classic Of New Orleans Favorites

Day is the +500 favorite. He led through 54 holes here last year after rounds of 67-65-68 but shot a final-round 69 and finished T4 at 19 under. Prior to that, he hadn't played the tournament since 2009. Day was last seen with a T23 at the RBC Heritage.

Rose is +800 to repeat. The last to do that was Carlos Franco in 1999-2000 when this was played at a different course. Rose, who hasn't played since a T10 at the Masters, was eighth here in 2014.

Rickie Fowler (+1100), Billy Horschel (+1800) and Hoffman (+2000) round out the favorites. Fowler has missed the cut here the past two years and missed the cut at the Masters in his last Tour start. Horschel won here in 2013 but has struggled the past two years. He was T4 last week, though. Hoffman was fifth in 2014 in his last trip to New Orleans.

PGA Tour Picks: Zurich Classic Of New Orleans Expert Betting Predictions

For a Top 10, I like Day (-200), Rose (-140) and Daniel Berger (+225). Why Berger? He was sixth here last year and seven of the last 11 winners here have been first-timers. Berger has yet to win but is playing well this year.

Head-to-head, go with Horschel (+120) over Fowler (-165), Berger (+105) over Hoffman (-135), Chris Kirk (-115) over Smylie Kaufman (-115), Marc Leishman (-130) over Tringale (even), and Charles Howell III (-115) over Danny Lee (-115).

If I was given the chance at a Day/Rose vs. the field prop in this tournament, I'd take it. Let's go with Rose to repeat. It' has happened six times overall at this tournament. Plus Rose usually plays well at Pete Dye-designed courses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Eastern Conference Semis
By Alex Smith

New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Season Series: Isles lead 2-1 SU/2-0-1 O/U
Over is 4-1-1 Last 6 Meetings
Favorite has won 6 of Last 7 Meetings

Tampa Bay Recent Trends
4-7 SU Last 11 Road Games
6-1 SU Last 7 Games as a Favorite
Currently on a 4-Game Home Winning Streak
PK Unit Killed 24 of 25 Penalties in 1st Round

Starting Goalie
Ben Bishop: 10-3 SU Last 13 Starts Overall
Lifetime Record vs NYI:5-5, 3.06 G.A.A; .890 Sv% in 10 GP

NY Islanders Recent Trends
1-4 O/U Last 5 Games
5-2 SU Last 7 Games as an Underdog
4-1 SU Last 5 Road Games
4 Power-Play Goals over Last 4 Contests

Starting Goalie
Thomas Greiss: 8-3 SU Last 11 Starts
Lifetime Record vs TB: 3-1, 3.29 G.A.A; .908 Sv% in 4 GP

Series Odds
Lightning -150
Islanders +130

Exact Game Props
7 Games Lightning Win 3/1
5 Games Lightning Win 7/2
6 Games Islanders Win 4/1
6 Games Lightning Win 4/1
7 Games Islanders Win 5/1
4 Games Lightning Win 8/1
5 Games Islanders Win 8/1
4 Games Islanders Win 15/1

Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Season Series: Penguins lead 3-2 SU/2-1-2 O/U
Penguins are 13-7 SU Last 20 Meetings
Road Team has won 6 of Last 9 Meetings

Washington Recent Trends
2-4 SU Last 6 Home Games
1-5-1 O/U Last 7 Games Overall
7-13 SU Last 20 Playoff Road Games
PP Unit: 7/21 Over the Last 5 Games

Starting Goalie
Braden Holtby: 5-2 SU & 2-4-1 O/U Last 7 Starts
Lifetime Record vs PITT:5-8, 2.79 G.A.A; .914 Sv% in 13 GP

Pittsburgh Recent Trends
18-5 SU Last 23 Games Overall
4+ Goals in 14 of Last 19 Games
PK Unit: 58 Kills/64 Chances Over the Last 19 Games

Starting Goalie
Matt Murray: 12-3, 1.81 G.A.A; .936 Sv% w/2 SO in 16 GP
Lifetime Record vs WASH:1-1, 2.93 G.A.A; .910 Sv% in 2 Starts

Series Odds
Capitals -135
Penguins +115

Exact Game Props
7 Games Capitals Win 3/1
5 Games Capitals Win 7/2
6 Games Capitals Win 4/1
6 Games Penguins Win 4/1
7 Games Penguins Win 5/1
5 Games Penguins Win 7/1
4 Games Capitals Win 10/1
4 Games Penguins Win 15/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Penguins (48-26) at Capitals (56-18)

Date: April 28, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

ARLINGTON, Va. (AP) Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin will be the headline of most stories about the Pittsburgh Penguins-Washington Capitals playoff series.

The transcendent superstars of the NHL meeting in the playoffs for the first time in seven years and the second time in their careers will do that.

'Of course everyone look at it (as) Crosby-Ovi,' Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov said. 'It's Pittsburgh against Washington, right?'

Shine the spotlight and train the cameras on Crosby and Ovechkin, but Kuznetsov is right: The two top teams in the Eastern Conference have so much talent that the series won't be decided by just those two players.

Pittsburgh has fellow Russian star Evgeni Malkin, American sniper Phil Kessel and Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman Kris Letang, while Washington has Swedish sensation Nicklas Backstrom, Kuznetsov and goaltender Braden Holtby, a finalist for the Vezina Trophy.

Capitals coach Barry Trotz called it 'disrespectful' to boil the series down to Crosby and Ovechkin.

'You can match up any names because so much offensive weapons on both teams,' he said. 'But I think the team wins, not like individuals win.'

These teams win a lot.

The Capitals captured the Presidents' Trophy with the most points in the NHL this season. The Penguins were the league's best team after Mike Sullivan replaced Mike Johnston as coach.

Malkin, the No. 2 pick behind Ovechkin in 2004, and the blossoming Kuznetsov are the X-factors in the series that begins with Game 1 Thursday night in Washington. Defenses will be so worried about stopping Crosby and Ovechkin that it will likely be up to those playmakers to take advantage.

'I think everyone takes a lot of pride and wants to win this time of year no matter who they're playing against,' Crosby said. 'Geno understands it's an important time of year, and he wants to be playing his best.'

Malkin said the Capitals need to be careful against Kuznetsov, who struggled in the first round but promised to be better. Washington needs that because Pittsburgh's depth jumps off the page.

Beyond the Penguins' top trio of Crosby, Patric Hornqvist and Conor Sheary, Malkin's line can seemingly score at will. Kessel was a key in finishing off the New York Rangers in five games and fourth-liner Matt Cullen scored 17 goals during the regular season.

None of this is to say Crosby and Ovechkin can't make major impacts, even if they don't have dueling hat tricks like they did in Game 2 in 2009. Crosby led the Penguins with eight points in the first round, while Ovechkin had three goals and two assists against the Philadelphia Flyers.

'I'm not going to lie: I think both players get up for the game,' said Penguins forward Eric Fehr, who previously played for the Capitals. 'It's hard to argue it when (you) see how hard they play against each other and how into it the fans get for those games.'

Throw in all the other stars, and get your popcorn ready.

'It's going to be cutthroat, intense hockey and fast,' Capitals forward Tom Wilson said. 'Fans are in for a treat. It's going to be a heck of a series.'

Some other things to watch beyond Crosby vs. Ovechkin:

INJURIES ON DEFENSE: Capitals defensemen Brooks Orpik and Karl Alzner are question marks for Game 1. Orpik missed the final three games of the first round but could be cleared to return from a suspected concussion, while Alzner didn't skate the past two days because of an upper-body injury. Trotz and players expect Alzner to be ready.

OVER THE HUMP: Pittsburgh won the Cup in 2009, but the Capitals have yet to make it past the second round with Ovechkin. The opportunities are dwindling. It's 'a very important challenge for us because I think we're ready to take a big step,' Ovechkin said.

NEED FOR SPEED: The Penguins under Sullivan are maybe the fastest team in hockey, so expect a track meet. After enduring a rough series against Philadelphia, the Capitals say they can adapt to any style, so buckle up.

FLEURY OR MURRAY: With Penguins goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury still experiencing post-concussion symptoms, the net belongs to 21-year-old Matt Murray, who has stopped 85 of 89 shots so far this postseason. When Fleury is healthy, it's a huge decision and not an easy one.

MAX POWER: The Penguins scored on an NHL-best 38.1 percent of their power plays in the first round and the Capitals on 29.6 percent of theirs. Washington allowed just one power-play goal against in 24 chances to Pittsburgh's two in 19 chances. Special teams will be a huge part of the series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game 6 - Hawks at Celtics
By Brian Edwards

Atlanta will be looking for the kill shot Thursday night when it travels to TD Arena to take on Boston in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference first-round series. The winner of this best-of-seven set will advance to face Cleveland in the East semifinals. If necessary, Game 7 would be at Philips Arena in Atlanta on Saturday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Mike Budenholzer’s team hopes it’ll be prepping for the Cavaliers at that point. If the Hawks play like they did in the last 2.5 quarters of Tuesday’s Game 5, they’ll be doing just that.

Atlanta (51-36 straight up, 44-42-1 against the spread) took a 3-2 series advantage by virtue of a 110-83 win as a 7.5-point home favorite. The 193 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 198-point total.

When Boston led Atlanta 29-19 midway through the second quarter, you could hear a pin drop at Philips unless there were boo-birds in the air after another fruitless offensive possession from the Hawks, who were an abysmal 6-of-34 from the field to start the game.

However, when Paul Millsap scored on a bucket in the lane, it ignited his team to hit 10 consecutive shots, including three consecutive 3-pointers from Kent Bazemore in a span of just 87 seconds. By the time halftime arrived, Budenholzer’s bunch had a 45-37 advantage to hook up Atlanta first-half supporters (-4.5) with a winning wager.

The Celtics had led 20-15 at the end of the opening stanza, cashing first-quarter wagers as 2.5-point underdogs. With the eight-point lead at intermission, most books made the Hawks one-point ‘chalk’ for second-half bets. (Boston +9 adjusted)

Atlanta would cover that easily as it put the game on ice quickly in the third quarter. Boston briefly trimmed the deficit to five at 53-48, but then the Hawks got treys from Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder, Mike Scott and Millsap to go ahead by 22 points. It would only get uglier from there.

Scott was the key for the Hawks. When they couldn’t buy a bucket in the second quarter, he scored five straight points and then his teammates loosened up. Scott scored a team-high 17 points on 7-of-9 shooting from the field. The University of Virginia product grabbed five rebounds and buried 2-of-3 launches from downtown in 21 minutes of playing time.

Bazemore and Teague scored 16 points apiece. Korver, who has always been an underrated defender, had five steals as Atlanta forced Boston to commit 20 turnovers. Korver finished with 13 points on 3-of-6 shooting from long distance. Millsap contributed 10 points, eight rebounds, six assists, one steal and one blocked shot.

Al Horford was terrific in the first two games of the series, averaging 20.5 points per game, but he’s been kept out of double figures in three consecutive contests. Horford missed his first eight shots in Game 5, going 2-for-11 from the field for the night. But the two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida always finds ways to help his team, and that was the case again Tuesday when he produced eight rebounds and four assists compared to just one turner despite being held to merely six points.

Thomas, who entered Game 5 as the NBA’s highest scorer in the playoffs to date, had 42 points in Game 3 and 28 in Game 4. He went scoreless in the first half Tuesday, however, and managed only seven points and one rebound while committing as many turnovers (three) as he had assists (three).

With the game out of reach early in the fourth quarter, Brad Stevens sent a substitute in for his All-Star guard. But before the next dead ball, Thomas turned his ankle. He gave an intentional foul at the other end and immediately jogged, albeit gingerly, to the locker room. Nevertheless, Stevens downplayed the injury and Thomas is listed as ‘probable’ for Thursday’s Game 6.

Evan Turner had a team-best 15 points in the losing effort. Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart and Jared Sullinger were also in double figures with 10 points apiece.

Boston (50-37 SU, 45-41-1 ATS) has won 30 of 43 home games outright this season while posting a solid 25-17-1 ATS mark.

Atlanta is 21-22 SU in its road games with a 20-22-1 spread record. The Hawks have failed to cover the number in six straight road contests. They are 1-3 both SU and ATS in four games at Boston this season. Furthermore, since winning Game 5 at the old Boston Garden in 1988, Atlanta has lost eight consecutive postseason games at Boston.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Atlanta as a one-point favorite for Game 6, while the total was sent out at 196.5 points. As of late Wednesday afternoon, the Westgate had the Hawks favored by two points with a total of 197, which is the lowest of the series to date. Atlanta is a one-half point ‘chalk’ for first-half wagers.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David had this take on the side: “After the blowout loss in Game 5, the Celtics opened as one-point home underdogs and the early action has leaned to Atlanta. I’m not surprised by the move and it should be noted that the oddsmakers have been pretty good with their ratings on Boston this season. The club has been listed as home ‘dogs six times and they went 2-4 in those games but to be fair, those losses came against the four best teams in Golden State, San Antonio, Cleveland and Oklahoma City. It should be noted that both of the victories came against the Hawks.”

The ‘over’ went 3-1 in the four regular-season meetings between these clubs during the regular season, but the ‘under’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip in this postseason series. The combined score totals have been (in order) 203, 161, 214, 199 (despite going to OT) and 193.

The ‘under’ is 47-40 overall for the Celtics this year, 22-21 in their home outings.

The ‘under’ is 48-39 overall for the Hawks, 23-20 in their road assignments. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in six of their last seven games and eight of their last 10 (regardless of the venue).

David was taken by surprise when he saw the low total. He explained, “Even though the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the first five games of this series, I believe the oddsmakers made a mistake with the opener of 197 for Game 6 and the low number could have you leaning to the ‘over’ just based on season trends for Boston. This will be the eighth total listed under 200 points for Boston and the ‘over’ has gone 6-1 in the first seven games with the lone ‘under’ taking place in Game 5 of this series, which actually had a shot but the Celtics couldn’t buy a shot.

“Boston has posted 111 and 104 in the two games at home in this series, plus it has shown the ability to bounce back offensively after poor efforts. The team has been held under 90 points four times this season and they’ve posted 98, 111, 116 and 111 in the following games. I’m going to ride that trend again on Thursday and play Boston’s team total ‘over’ (97 ½) in Game 6 and I believe Atlanta will do its part as well, making me play the game ‘over’ too.”

Thursday’s tip in Beantown is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hawks (48-34) at Celtics (48-34)

Date: April 28, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

If the Atlanta Hawks can exorcise their postseason demons in Boston, they'll eliminate a longtime playoff nemesis for the first time in 58 years and get a rematch from last season's conference finals in the next round.

They may be catching a little break with the Celtics' Isaiah Thomas a bit banged-up, but the All-Star point guard insists he's not going to let his injury bother him.

The Celtics look to force a Game 7 and continue their postseason home dominance over the Hawks on Thursday night.

The home team has won the first five games in this series and Atlanta kept that trend going with a sudden U-turn in Game 5 on Tuesday. The Hawks scored 19 points in the first 17:59 but scorched the Celtics for 70 in the next 18 minutes en route to a 110-83 victory.

With another win, Atlanta will get a chance to face the team that swept it out of last year's Eastern Conference finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

"We just have to have this same type of mentality, same type of effort and take it on the road," coach Mike Budenholzer said. "Can we play with the same poise and the same effort? The crowd was great here tonight. I think the guys have a comfort level, and we just need to take that on the road. ... In the playoffs, it's important to put a crowd away and play well."

Behind 45 points from Paul Millsap, Budenholzer's team nearly earned an ultra-rare playoff victory in Boston in Sunday's Game 4, but was outscored 12-3 in overtime in a 104-95 defeat. If they can turn the tables this time, the Hawks would top Boston in a playoff series for the first time since winning their lone NBA title in 1958 as the St. Louis Hawks.

The franchise has lost nine straight playoff series with the Celtics since then. Atlanta has also dropped 10 consecutive postseason games in Boston since a 112-104 victory in Game 5 of the 1988 East semifinals, one of only two wins in its last 29 playoff contests there.

Boston is trying to avoid a third consecutive first-round exit, something that hasn't happened for the storied franchise since its first three playoff series from 1948-52.

"I don't think there's any need to light into anybody or give a big Knute Rockne speech in Game 5 and 6 in the Eastern Conference playoffs," coach Brad Stevens said. "I just think you get ready for the next one, you prepare really well and you hope you come out the way we came out, which is focused and ready. We just didn't sustain it."

Having Thomas play through his injury is also key.

Thomas re-aggravated a sprained left ankle in Tuesday's fourth quarter, but insists he'll play "no matter what." However, it's unclear how healthy he'll be especially after disclosing that he also tweaked his ankle in Game 4.

Boston's Avery Bradley is also expected to sit out a fifth consecutive game.

Thomas scored 28 points in Game 4, but was held to seven on 3-of-12 shooting Tuesday as the Hawks focused on stopping him by putting two or three defenders in his way.

Evan Turner was the only Celtic to score more than 10 with 15. Jonas Jerebko was limited to six after scoring a combined 27 in his first two starts in the series.

"Their game plan was to let the other guys beat us. It should be a sign of disrespect to my teammates for them to put two on the ball every time I have it," said Thomas, who totaled 70 points on 48.9 percent shooting in the first two home games in this series. "Other guys have to step up and make plays. That's what it comes down to."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Trainer Kirk Ziade was handed a six-year suspension recently for a variety of drug positives, 18 in total spanning four years, but he will be back saddling horses pretty soon.

A Florida appellate court granted the stay, according to Brad Beilly, Ziadie’s attorney. The stay will likely remain in place until the court rules on Ziadie’s appeal, which could take six months to a year, Beilly estimated according to an article in The Daily Racing Form.

Florida’s Office of Administrative Hearings had determined that the Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering had proven that Ziadie had 18 medication positives in the past four years according to the article.

“The number of repetitions of offenses was significant and indicates a pattern or practice rather than an occasional oversight,” the agency’s order stated. “Repeated drug offenses have a direct impact on the integrity of the pari-mutuel industry.”

Most of the overages were for the legal drug clenbuterol, which can act like a steroid in horses. If a horse is given the drug, it should not race for 14 days.

Ziade won the 2015 Gulfstream Park spring meeting training title with 22 winners from just 45 starters. Why is this guy in the Hall of Fame with numbers like that?

I can’t quite understand why it took 18 overages before any action at all was taken. I am also constantly frustrated by trainers who always blame someone else for overages, or just plead ignorance.

Trainers that are breaking the rules need to be out of the sport. It is almost as if the industry does not realize that we actually wager our hard earned money on these races, and a guy like Ziade is tampering with a sporting event.

Guys like him need to be not only off the grounds of any racetrack, they need to be behind bars if proven guilty.


Here is today’s opener from Keeneland to get the day off to a good start:

KEE Race 1 Md $20,000 (1:05 ET)
#1 Jazz Man 7-2
#3 Dynamo Ridge 2-1
#6 Glennevan 8-1
#4 Midnight Dance 3-1

Analysis: Jazz Man tracked the early pace and faded to finish a well beaten fourth last out on poly going a mile and now drops in for a tag for the first time here. He has been beaten double digit lengths in all three starts but does have enough pedigree to go nine furlongs. He looks like the main speed and there is not much talent in here.

Dynamo Ridge stalked the early pace, made a good middle move splitting rivals to get in front and could not go with the winner late in a runner up finish in his first start for a tag. He shed some ability with a good second on the dirt at Fair Grounds last December but was not able to run back to that effort since, a couple of those starts on turf. He is by Dynaformer out of a stakes placed Unbridled mare and is bred to handle nine furlongs.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 7 Alw $64,000N2X (4:24 ET)
#1 Munjaz 9-2
#4 Blarp 6-1
#5 Sky Hero 5-2
#6 Granny's Kitten 7-2

Analysis: Munjaz beat Alw-1 foes two back in his U.S. debut and did it off seven-month layoff. He then was eighth at this level in his first try, three coming out of that race to win next out. He returns here for the McLaughlin barn that is 23% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He spent the winter at Palm Meadows and looks ready to fire off the bench.

Blarp gets some class relief here after taking on graded stakes company in his last three starts, all at Fair Grounds. The best among those three was a third in the Bradley 'Cap (G3) three back over good ground, which we might see today. Sharp finds a good spot for him here dropping into the Alw-2 ranks.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R1: #6 Glennevan 8-1
R3: #5 Three Loves and Me 10-1
R3: #4 Alittlebourbon 15-1
R4: #1 Pick Pocket / 1a Frisky Kitten 8-1
R5: #4 Mongolian Changa 12-1
R6: #8 Ol Army 8-1
R6: #6 Quiet Man 10-1
R8: #4 Divine Humor 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Thursday 4/28 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 1,5,7,9/2/3,6,10/1,3,5,7/1,6 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5,7/6/4,5,7,8/1,3,8 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 1,3,8/2,3,10/7,8,9/4 = $27

MEET STATS: 42 - 121 / $236.70 BEST BETS: 8 - 12 / $37.60

SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 12 / $7.10

Best Bet: MAJOR HILL (10th)

Spot Play: MUSCLE AVE (6th)


Race 1

(5) NOW AND AGAIN closed quickly against a debut winner that repeated in her second start. This Big Jim filly can go forward off that promising initial start; top call. (1) ITSALLABOUTTHATBASS showed some ability in a brief rookie campaign last year and this is a good spot to make her sophomore debut. (7) SHOCKING BEAUTY made a quick move to the front last week that she couldn't sustain, but should be even sharper now and is a threat.

Race 2

(2) MISSION MAN was passing horses as the pace was accelerating in his second lifetime start and can be a big threat here if he reproduces that effort and late speed. (3) RUSTY HEFNER finished ahead of the choice in the same dash, which was raced in good time for this class. (7) GIANT MUSCLES re-qualified well and can contend here if he can stay flat.

Race 3

(6) FLOWERS N SONGS went a big winning trip from the 10-hole last week in her second start over Mohawk, which makes her the one to beat in this stakes series final. (3) WINDSONG MAGIC set soft fractions but was picked off easily by the choice down the lane. This filly might be better stalking the leaders. (10) WANAKA should get a more aggressive steer here, but the 10-hole might be too much to overcome.

Race 4

(1) BROOKDALE SONNY was way too far back last time and should be much closer early here starting from the inside, which gives him a good chance to collar these late. (7) CAJON THOMAS was a sharp second in the same dash in a career-best performance. He is one of several that can threaten here. (5) ADRIAN HANOVER qualified faster than most of these race, which makes him a big threat.

Race 5

(6) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT was a winner here last week after going a big trip in defeat the previous week; call to repeat. (1) PRINCE SHARKA closed for second behind the choice after getting stuck behind bad cover. He could turn the tables with the right trip. (3) LISVINNIE has taken slices in half his starts this year and is a good bet to do the same here.

Race 6

(8) MUSCLE AVE was a sharp second in his 2016 debut for a stable that has been sending everything ready lately; top call. (5) TOUGH AFFAIR disappointed as choice in her seasonal debut but may have needed that start; using. (4) DYNAMIC EDGE also makes her second start of the year and the early speed she showed last week can play well here.

Race 7

(8) QUEEN IDEAL was flying late last week and need only be put into the race earlier here to get the job done. (1) THIS DAY FORWARD was a solid second in her seasonal debut but continues to be a bit of a money burner. (3) TONKA GIRL is a 1/2 to several winners including local horse Joshua My Boy. She could pop at a price in her first time out.

Race 8

(2) WILL TAKE CHARGE raced against the best last year and qualified powerfully in his sophomore debut. If he is close enough turning home, he should beat these. (3) P L JERICO was a sharp maiden-breaker last week and is the main danger. (10) ZAGSTER raced well despite some long journeys in the Tie Silk series and can't be dismissed even with the worst post.

Race 9

(8) LUMIERE was a victim of his own aggression last week when he got picked off after putting up a huge 3/4 fraction for this class. Trainer Laroque claimed him right back after one start and he looks tough in here. (9) MEERSBURG had no shot tracking a snail's pace at Flamboro last time. He has upset possibilities here. (7) DISTINCTIV RUSTY takes a class plunge here and should fit this class.

Race 10

(4) MAJOR HILL faces maidens for the first time and brings a swift qualifier with him. He should be tough to beat here in his sophomore debut. (1) NOTETOSELF HANOVER finished quickly in both qualifiers and can take a big piece of this purse. (3) CENTURY CHURCHILL makes the lower exotic rungs frequently and should do so here off a following trip near the front. (8) AZUL POOL looks sharp and goes for a trainer that sends them ready off the shelf. He could better this prediction. (7) THREE RIVERS DELL faced some good ones in his qualifier, which is probably better than it looks on paper. Toss him on Super and High-5 bets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 4/28 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

Race 7 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

MEET STATS: 132 - 393 / $712.80

BEST BETS: 17 - 33 / $60.00


Best Bet: OUTA MY HEAD (1st)

Spot Play: STRINGS (9th)


Race 1

(3) OUTA MY HEAD has been in solid form recently for a barn that's done well all year and he should be heading to the front. (1) JC KINGDOM should look to protect pocket position and can be second best. (5) WHAT'SITTOYOUGRANT clearly has issues having made only four starts in the last two years but those qualifiers seemed good enough.

Race 2

(6) MY IDEAL HANOVER moves into the Robertson barn via claim and could show enough improvement to topple these at a price. (5) MY TALLIA IDEAL was second best last week in a good try and seems like the one to beat, but will likely be overbet. (7) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY will be firing hard from the gate.

Race 3

(3) SUMMER SNOW gets post relief and this looks like the winning spot. (1) DEREK DELIGHT is a legit speed threat from the rail. (6) MISS ALI MACH N will probably be too far back to threaten unless Sears can coax enough early speed out of her to reach the tuck that will await.

Race 4

(3) CANACO STAR gets the needed post relief that she's been craving and the Banca trainee looks like the one to beat. (2) NEFERTITI BLUECHIP also drops with needed post relief; this looks like a solid chalk lineup exacta box, assuming they can both step over (1) HARMONY OAKS QUIKE, who seems like she should be better than she's been showing.

Race 5

(1) MUSTANG MACH N makes his third start since returning to the Tritton barn and if he behaves himself he can roll by late. (4) DALLENBACH HANOVER will likely be trying to take these the distance. (8) BOX CAR JOHNNIE has been a terror in the Milici barn but needs an alert getaway from this spot.

Race 6

(3) FEELS LIKE MAGIC N couldn't reach last week in what turned out to be a very fast mile; an early move to the front tonight will get it done. (2) HIGH COURAGE N is back in for a tag with an improved post; Buter's choice. (5) OHOKA TEXAS N was in the same boat as the top choice last week; Tritton charge is a threat to hit the ticket.

Race 7

(5) HIDDEN IDENTITY looks for three straight for a barn that clicks at 38%. (6) COUSIN EDDIE has been very sharp and will look to maintain that edge for his new connections. (7) SWISHNFLICK has class to her but faces a tough task from this post; I would include her on tickets anyway.

Race 8

(2) NASSAU COUNTY powered off impressively last week for Bartlett/Banca; he faces a tough foe in (1) STONEBRIDGE TONIC but the well-bred gelding gets the call to repeat. The latter just missed in a big try first off the Allard claim. (6) TYE SEELSTER finally showed some forward progress last week.

Race 9

(1) STRINGS drops to a new low and should control the action from start to finish. (2) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N was huge in her first start for Allard; apparently this Napolitano guy can drive... (3) ELISAVETA N gets some needed post relief and was Bartlett's choice. (8) HAZMATT clearly merits a mention with these but I just don't trust how aggressive she will be tonight from this outside post.

Race 10

(2) ARMOR HANOVER has been a powerful winner in his two starts for his new barn and is impossible to look past despite facing tougher. (1) MONEY MAVEN drops in class, draws best and is the main threat. (6) KASCARA ROSA is good when she minds her manners; consider underneath at a price.

Race 11

(4) SIR JILLIAN Z TAM never seems to win but with that said the Lachance trainee lands in a very good spot tonight and should be aggressively handled. (1) HEY KOBE gets the all-important class and post relief. (7) ROYAL KNOCKOUT returns at a reduced level after two aggressive tries at Philly; mare will be a big price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Evangeline Downs (1st) Avery Lynn, 3-1
(4th) Zip Her Up, 4-1

Gulfstream Park (1st) Storm Warnings, 5-1
(8th) Trio of Mischief, 8-1

Hawthorne (2nd) Handsome Sean, 6-1
(4th) Kiss'n Rosie, 7-2


Keeneland (8th) Divine Humor, 8-1
(9th) Sly Tom, 9-2


Los Alamitos (4th) Loyalist, 3-1
(6th) Shiny Nugget, 3-1


Penn National (4th) Big Apple Brit, 3-1
(6th) Vicksburg Bluffs, 3-1

Prairie Meadows (2nd) Shamrock Edge, 7-2
(5th) Poetic Poser, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Overachieving AL Pitchers
By Joe Nelson

Starting pitching is the biggest component of MLB handicapping and as the first month of the season winds down there are some surprising pitchers off to great starts. Here are a few American League starters with great results through the first few weeks that may be worth fading as their valuation grows.

Mat Latos - Chicago White Sox: Latos looked like one of the NL’s better young pitchers a few years ago with the Padres before having a few moderately successful seasons in Cincinnati. After bouncing around last season with few positive outings, Latos was signed for a very cheap one-year deal by the White Sox last winter. That deal has already paid off with Latos 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA for the surprising White Sox who lead the AL Central.

Three of his four starts have come against three of the five worst scoring teams in the AL at this point and Latos is sporting a FIP nearly three runs higher than his ERA. He has benefitted from an unbelievable .167 BABIP in allowing just 13 hits in over 24 innings of work while producing just 13 strikeouts. With matchups with the Orioles, Red Sox and Rangers in the next few weeks, Latos and the rest of the White Sox pitching staff could see lesser results ahead.

Ian Kennedy - Kansas City Royals: The 2015 World Series champions didn’t make much of an off-season splash with the signing of Kennedy being one of the biggest moves. Kennedy has good numbers through four starts with a 2.77 ERA and 23 strikeouts, but he faced struggling Minnesota and Houston offenses in his first two outings. The numbers have deteriorated a bit in his last two starts and he has already walked nine batters in 26 innings of work. Kennedy has been fortunate to allow only 20 hits this season while standing runners on base at an extremely high rate.

After posting marginal numbers pitching for San Diego the past two seasons, Kennedy isn’t likely to find better results this season moving back to the AL. In the early going, Kansas City’s great bullpen hasn’t been as effective as the past two seasons as the prices on Kennedy may be a bit too high in certain matchups ahead.

Jordan Zimmermann - Detroit Tigers: Zimmermann didn’t endear himself to Tigers fans over the winter as the Wisconsin native made a celebratory tweet after the improbable Packers win over the Lions, but given his first month results all may be forgiven. Zimmermann is 4-0 with a miniscule 0.35 ERA in his move to the AL after several successful but often injury plagued seasons with Washington. Zimmermann only has 16 strikeouts in 26 innings and he has allowed 22 hits despite allowing just one earned run in four starts.

Zimmermann’s past results command respect on the betting line, but his tiny ERA may push those prices even higher even with the Tigers looking like an erratic group in the first month of the season. Zimmermann should have a good season, but he isn’t likely to stay on the Cy Young radar for much longer and fading him while his numbers are among the best in the league will present the best value.

Cole Hamels – Texas Rangers: Hamels is 3-0 this season with the Rangers with a solid 2.52 ERA and a pretty strong strikeout rate. This was after fairly mixed results joining the Rangers last August for the playoff push. Quality starting pitchers don’t sign with the Rangers as the ballpark has been known to take a toll which is why the Rangers were willing to give up so much to get Hamels last summer with his contract going through 2018. So far this season it looks like a shrewd move as Hamels has handled being the staff ace until Yu Darvish can return even though the 2015 AL West champions have had inconsistent results so far this season.

Hamels owns a FIP of 5.14 through four starts, or more than twice his ERA, as he has lacked the precise control he has enjoyed much of his career, already walking 11 so far this season. Hamels has allowed four home runs and 20 hits despite surrendering only seven runs in 25 innings of work as he has been pretty fortunate in the early going. Hamels is capable of having a solid season even in Arlington, but he will look like a risk as a heavy favorite in a ballpark where scoring is commonplace especially with a couple of teams that can handle left-handers in the division.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Athletics (11-10) at Tigers (9-10)

Game: 4
Venue: Comerica Park
Date: April 28, 2016 1:10 PM EDT

The Detroit Tigers envision Anibal Sanchez as the starter that bridges the gap between the front and back end of their rotation.

Lately, there has been a disconnect.

The Tigers hope Sanchez can rebound from his latest disaster to deliver them a series win over the visiting Oakland Athletics on Thursday.

Three years ago, Sanchez (2-2, 7.00 ERA) set a franchise record with 17 strikeouts against Atlanta. The right-hander went 14-8 in that 2013 season behind a career-best 2.57 ERA and a career high-tying 202 strikeouts.

His numbers have steadily declined since, continuing to roll downhill with a miserable 2016 start.

Sanchez has 17 strikeouts between his first four outings, but the issue is what hitters are doing when they make contact. They're batting .333 with a .389 average on balls in play while hitting four home runs - continuing a trend from last season when Sanchez tied for first in the AL by allowing a career-high 29.

Saturday was rock bottom as he matched his shortest outing in a Tigers uniform with 2 1/3 innings in a 10-1 loss to Cleveland. The Indians pounded out nine hits and seven runs off Sanchez while he labored through 60 pitches.

Sanchez's struggles leave a major question mark for the Tigers, who count on the 11-year veteran to eat up innings behind Jordan Zimmermann and Justin Verlander - the only two Detroit starters to toss seven innings.

"I try my best all the time when I'm on the mound. I know everybody tries," Sanchez told MLB's official website. "When I'm on the mound and I'm not able to throw more than three innings, it's really bad for the team - especially for the guys on the field."

Sanchez was strong through five innings in his first two starts before tiring in the sixth. The last two he has struggled out of the gate, allowing a combined five hits and five runs in the first inning.

Detroit (10-10) lost four of six against Oakland when Sanchez started over the last four seasons. However, he holds a 2.82 ERA while the Athletics have hit .195 against him in his last three meetings.

Coco Crisp is the Oakland hitter with the most success in the matchup, going 8 for 19 with a homer and four doubles - including playoffs. Josh Reddick has two home runs and a single in 16 at-bats against Sanchez.

After recording 20 hits while splitting the first two games of this series, the Athletics (11-11) were held to two through the first six innings of Wednesday's 9-4 loss - their fourth in five games after opening a season-high 10-game road trip with four straight wins.

They will try to wake up offensively to back Chris Bassitt, who hasn't won in his last 11 starts. The third-year pro has received 35 runs of support in 22 career starts, going 2-10 despite a 3.79 ERA.

Bassitt (0-1, 4.44) pitched well through his first three starts, allowing six earned runs over 19 1/3 innings, but he was shelled by a potent Toronto lineup while lasting five in Saturday's 9-3 loss. He surrendered a career-high nine hits, including two homers, and six runs.

Despite drawing the lowest run-support average of Oakland starters over the last two seasons at 2.26, the right-hander took the blame after his latest loss.

"The offense did well again, and I just didn't give us a chance, and that's the most disappointing thing," Bassitt said.