Thursday 3/13/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Yonkers: Thursday 3/13 Analysis
By Brewster Smith
DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 64 - 276 / $455.10 BEST BETS: 7 - 23 / $29.20

Best Bet: ROCK OF CASHEL (2nd)

Spot Play: BEST BOSS (8th)



Race 1

(2) FOR ALL WE KNOW is a very sharp pacing mare who made last week a winning one. Two straight is not out of the question. (4) LITTLE MERMAID N showed some speed in her recent try; could have a say. (1) NORA LEE's last one indicates she is knocking at the door; maybe.

Race 2

Sharp trotter (1) ROCK OF CASHEL has put in two easy scores plus retains the rail slot, the one to deny again. (5) WISENHEIMER raced evenly in his latest; second best. Pennsylvania invader (8) MONROE COUNTY fits well in here; she has a shot.

Race 3

(1) HARNESSNITENCANADA draws much better and has tactical speed; could best these from the fence. (4) TERRYS STAR DRAGON flashed speed in his last try; the one to catch. (5) DVC GIVEMEATTITUDE was second best last time around and could make some noise in this event.

Race 4

(2) BET THE TOWN was sharp in his last trip; clearly can top these at his best. (3) ROCKAVELLIAN & (5) LULUS BOY both receive post relief; main contenders.

Race 5

Will give (8) TRADING PLACES a shot with these trotters. She has tactical speed and the 8-hole should not be a probelm; respect based on connections alone. (2) LONG STORY SHORT closed well to grab the victory recently; threat. (3) UNCLE FREDDIE could be right square in the mix.

Race 6

(2) BACK TO THE WEST moves to the 2-hole and that should help this gelding get back to the winning grove; consider. (1) VIPER HANOVER rallied strongly for the placing last out; main danger. (3) TYS A BIG STAR will be closing late with Brennan at the helm; watch out.

Race 7

(7) IF I DIDNT CARE comes off a tough break in her last one. Pacing miss will get another shot at glory with a fine-timed drive from Stalbaum. (2) MISSSOMEBEACH BLUE moves back inside and Sears takes over; major player. (1) MY TALLIA IDEAL was a game second in her last try; don't overlook.

Race 8

(1) BEST BOSS had some trouble early last out, but this pacing mare is clearly better than her last try; worth a closer look. (3) BETTOR B LUCKY's qualifier at the Meadowlands was good; player. (2) ITS DE LOVELY could land a share.

Race 9

(4) ROCK THE WIND took the pocket route home to victory last out. Gelding is capable of being the boss once again with Brennan on the return call. (2) TALKTOMECOURAGE N has wheeled off two straight scores; figures to be in the picture despite the rise in class. (6) GOOSE CREEK got the job done against lesser last time out; could make some noise in the late stages.

Race 10

(3) EYEMAJET was nailed for win honors last out. She has been tough of late and she has every right to get back on the winning track. (4) MINDALES SMILE took the pocket route home to victory recently; big threat again. (5) FLYING MOCHA is better than her last flop; worth another look.

Race 11

(4) IM THE CASH MAN posted an even trip in his latest and this trotter can get it done against these. (6) MISSY GOLDFIRE put in a easy score in her last one; second best. (2) BIG PAYOUT will be closing in the final strides.

Race 12

(2) LITTLE MISS HENRY moves up in class, but this pacing miss has tactical speed. With the right trip, she can make tonight a winning one. (3) PAINTS HALL was sent down the road for all the glory last time around; main danger. (4) MY IDEAL gets serious post relief and could be right there with Sears at the controls.
 
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Meadowlands: Thursday 3/13 Analysis
By Derick Giwner
DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 80 - 286 / $459.10 BEST BETS: 12 - 23 / $38.50

Best Bet: TAKE THE MONEY (2nd)

Spot Play: GLOWNGOLD (4th)

Race 1

(10) DON’T BLAME HER has been sprinting home with no chance from outside posts in her last two starts. She is stuck with post 10 this week but drops down to the basement condition level and faces easier competition. (5) DRAGON RUFFLES returns to the level of her last victory; must use. (9) LIZS LIL K K is always capable at this level and was a bit better last time. (6) DAY TO PONDER has some early zip.

Race 2

(2) TAKE THE MONEY scored in her 2014 debut. I’m not rushing to go play her, but she does jump off the page against this sorry bunch. (6) STIRLING BULLET would seem to have a chance if kept closer to the action. (7) GIANNI comes off a decent try.

Race 3

(1) EAGLE SAY raced better than her line looks in her most recent race. I’m not crazy about this mare or the lack of a top catch-driver, but the price should be right. (6) WATCH THE RHYTHM showed some ability at age 3 and her last qualifier wasn’t bad. (2) CHOCOHOLIC finds the perfect spot to flash speed. (7) BLUEBIRD KIDSQUEEN hasn’t missed the board this year.

Race 4

(4) GLOWNGOLD flashed good trot at both ends of her career debut mile. A small step forward should get her home. (1) DOT DOT DOT DASH bested many of these last week and looms as the favorite once again. (5) DAVE BRIGGS is making nice progression but I didn’t like the fact that he seemed uninterested in passing to the inside. Horses with limitations and quirks tend to make bad bets. (10) DAWNING DREAM might be too much of a plodder to overcome the outside post; exotics player.

Race 5

(4) LETTHEROCKBEGIN shows virtually no recent form, but welcome to race 5. This entire field is absent even one horse that finished second or higher in their last three starts. My thought is that this 6-year-old will be on the lead and maybe he steals the race. (6) HIGHLAND TERRIFIC draws a better post and should get a decent piece. (8) OK FERRARI added Lasix two starts back and did show some life. This gelding may be the one to beat, but he hasn’t won in two years.

Race 6

(3) PASSIONATE TERROR comes off a throw-out mile from an outside post last time. Trainer/driver combo is having a strong meet and this guy has already proven himself at the $12,500 claiming level. (9) CCS LOVER N was closing very fast in the stretch last time. With a better post he would have been my top pick. (7) ABS ATTACK failed as the favorite but deserves a second look.

Race 7

(2) ATLAS ALLIANCE N probably should still be at the C-1 level, but after a quick trip to Yonkers he finds himself in the basement condition. With any clean trip he can score. (1) SPENDER HANOVER failed as the favorite on the engine and may simply need a trip to find his form. (4) E STREET PLAN raced well after a year on the shelf; more now? (5) JOEY JOOKISS is clearly racing well.

Race 8

(8) WHATAORSE ships in from Freehold with enough form to consider. I can’t say I feel confident in this selection, but the others are hard to love. (4) LOCKLOADNEXPLODE almost took them all the way last time. (3) ST LADS HE MAN looks like a player with a clean trip.

Race 9

(7) YES YOUR MATTJESTY responded nicely with Tetrick in the bike and seems likely to get a more aggressive drive this time around. (2) TREY adds Gingras and won’t be far from the lead. (8) FRESH DREAM has some recent form.

Race 10

(6) FOX VALLEY LEGEND trotted home nicely last time, which was a big improvement over his prior races. Sometimes small signs of life can mean bigger and better things are on the horizon. (5) PAISLEY probably should win but tends to get nailed late. (12) STONEBRIDGE IDOL drops down in class. (4) CIVIC DUTY will make his presence felt at some point in the mile.
 
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Thursday Horse Racing Spot Picks

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (6th) Darnley Bay, 7-2
(7th) Two Is to Many, 7-2

Charles Town (4th) Real Awesome, 3-1
(6th) Betty Portlock, 5-1

Delta Downs (1st) One Fine Yank, 7-2
(5th) Fancy Heiress, 3-1

Fair Grounds (2nd) Tippy Dugas, 9-2
(10th) Nike Jump, 9-2

Golden Gate Fields (6th) Moving Seas, 4-1
(7th) Blue Blizzard, 5-1

Gulfstream Park (3rd) Unbridled Saint, 3-1
(8th) Run Hide My Girl, 6-1

Laurel (2nd) Zuri Mwana, 8-1
(8th) Pledge of Truth, 6-1

Penn National (3rd) Widmo, 5-1
(7th) Promising Dancer, 5-1

Oaklawn Park (3rd) Miss Seven K, 9-2
(7th) Western Range, 5-1

Santa Anita (1st) Luckarack, 7-2
(5th) New Nature, 7-2
 
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JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Kansas State +2.5

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup. Iowa State has proved to be one of the Big 12's most overrated teams. Their conference record is only one game better than the Wildcats, and the Cyclones are entering the conference tournament having lost two of their last three games. One of those two losses for Iowa State came at the hands of the Wildcats, and a change in venue to a neutral court will not be enough to swing things in Iowa State's favor.

The biggest advantage the Wildcats have in this game is their defense. They have held opponents to a mere 64.8 points per game, while the Cyclones have allowed an average of 78.8 points per game when playing away from home. These teams split their games during the regular season, and Iowa State's win in Ames was not convincing enough to indicate they are capable of beating a team like the Wildcats playing on a neutral court. Take the points because this game should be close, but I have Kansas State picking up the win.
 
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DOUG UPSTONE
NCAA-B | Mar 13
Miami (Fla) vs. NC State
NC State+2

When: 7:00 PM ET, Thursday, March 13, 2014
Where: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, North Carolina

TJ Warren has been on an absolute tear, he is coming off consecutive games of 40-plus points, the first time an ACC player has accomplished that feat since 1990. NC State is the better team, but will need the pace to be in their favor. Miami is very strong defensively and will look to keep this game in the 50s. Look for the Wolfpack to get to 65 or so and win outright. NC State is playing good basketball here late in the year and I advise to ride them Thursday Night. Take the two points. Good luck.
 
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BRANDON SHIVELY

Rhode Island vs. Umass-----I like Umass to get this win tonight vs. a team that they own in Rhode Island. U Mass is 8-2 SU the last 10 meetings vs. Rhode Island including a pair of wins this season. Currently, Lunardi has UMass penciled in as a #7 seed in the Big Dance, but a couple wins in the A-10 tournament can only help get them a better seed. UMass is 5-1 on neutral courts this year and I LOVE them tonight to win this game.

For Rhode Island, they are a team that does not have much of a bench. They rely on their two guards to do all the scoring, but I have the feeling that Matthews and Munford will be cold from the floor tonight. They will be outmatched vs. a UMass team that has Chazz Williams who is one of the most exciting point guards in college basketball. Williams has tall, athletic big men in the frontcourt to dish the rock to and that is where UMass will win this game. With Maxie Esho back healthy, the Minutemen have a strong rotation in the paint that will dominate Rhode Island. UMass holds all the statistical advantages for this game as one would assume and I will call for the size differential in the paint to be the biggest difference tonight. I look for the Minutemen to jump out to an early lead and to get Rhode Island into foul trouble as their only legitimate big man, Biruta, is known for getting in foul trouble. Look for UMass to win this game comfortably.

Play on UMASS
 
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JIM FEIST

(691) HOUSTON ROCKETS VS (692) CHICAGO BULLS
Take: over the total.

Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, March 13th, 2014, comes in the NBA as Houston Rockets and the Bulls meet in Chicago at the United Center. Chicago is a great defensive team, but can they slow down uptempo offenses? They didn't the last game against a great Western Conference offense in San Antonio, a 104-96 loss that went over the total. They gave up 38 first quarter points at home! And San Antonio benched the starters in the fourth scoring just 14 points. At least the Chicago offense is getting settled as D.J. Augustin led the Bulls with 24 points and Jimmy Butler had 23. Joakim Noah, whose name has started to be mentioned in MVP discussions, had 13 and eight rebounds. The over is 7-1 in Bulls last 8 vs. a team with a winning record and 10-4 over the total against a team with a winning percentage above .600. They won't be able to slow down the attacking Rockets, third in the NBA in scoring. They won't be in a good mood after a loss at Oklahoma City, 106-98. The over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a spread loss and 5-2 over the total against a team with a winning record. When these teams meet the over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings and the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. Play the Bulls/Rockets over the total.
 
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Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports.

#772 Take UNLV Rebels -8 over Wyoming Cowboys (Thursday 5:30 pm CBSSN)

The Cowboys have been playing a lot of home games to close out the regular season but that will not be the case tonight when they enter this Thomas & Mack Center a depleted team. UNLV is coming off a disappointing loss to Nevada to close out the regular season but they should be getting most of their guys back for this game and this team is just too talented not to make a run in the conference tournament. Neither one of these teams will make the big dance unless they win it all and UNLV has a decent chance to accomplish this. The Cowboys are without their best player Larry Nance Jr and they will enter this game having lost 4 of their last 5 games. Only one of those losses would have covered the posted spread of today’s game. Wyoming is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games overall.
 

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Europa League TODAY 18:00

Basle v RB Salzburg
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
ESPN
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Recent Form Last Head-To-Heads at Basle Recent Form
H W A D A D H W A D H D
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A W A W H W H W H W A W
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Key Stat: Salzburg have scored three goals or more in each of their last eight matches

Expert Verdict: There is increasing market respect for Salzburg, who are dominating the Austrian league and were 6-1 aggregate winners over Ajax in the Europa League round of 32. Roger Schmidt’s free-scoring side have notched 36 goals in their last eight games and may have too much firepower for Swiss hosts Basle at St Jakob Park.

Recommendation: Salzburg
1
 

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Europa League TODAY 18:00

Porto v Napoli
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
ITV4
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Recent Form Last Head-To-Heads at Porto Recent Form
A W H D H L A D A D H W
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A W A D H D H W A D H W
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Key Stat: Porto have lost just one of their last 14 home games

Expert Verdict: Napoli made hard work of beating Swansea in the Europa League last 32 and their chances could sustain a serious blow against Porto, who represent a step up in class after the Swans. Porto have slipped to third in the league but have lost just once on home soil since October and tend to produce their best in Europe.

Recommendation: Porto
1
 

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Europa League TODAY 18:00

Ludogorets v Valencia
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
BT1
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Recent Form Last Head-To-Heads at Ludogorets Recent Form
A W A W A D H D H W A D
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A D A W H W H D A L H D
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Key Stat: Ludogorets have lost just one of their last 11 home matches

Expert Verdict: Ludogorets Razgrad have excelled in the Europa League and can retain a chance of reaching the last eight by drawing at home to Valencia. The Bulgarian champions knocked out Lazio in the last round although they face a tougher challenge against Valencia, who are ninth in Spain and have played some of their best football in European games.

Recommendation: Draw
1
 

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Europa League TODAY 20:05

Seville v Real Betis
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Recent Form Last Head-To-Heads at Seville Recent Form
H D A D A W H W H W A W
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A L H D H L A W A D H W
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Key Stat: Seville are unbeaten in their last six matches

Expert Verdict: The Europa League has been the brightest aspect of the season for struggling Betis but their excellent form in the competition may not extend beyond their away clash with Seville. Betis won 2-0 at home to Getafe on Saturday but they are eight points adrift of safety and 23 worse off than City rivals Seville, who won 3-1 at Almeria on Sunday.

Recommendation: Seville
2
 

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Europa League TODAY 20:05

Juventus v Fiorentina
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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Recent Form Last Head-To-Heads at Juventus Recent Form
H W H W H W A W A W H W
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Key Stat: Juventus have kept five successive clean sheets

Expert Verdict: Juventus defeated Fiorentina 1-0 in a Serie A home fixture on Sunday and can overcome the same opponents in their Europa League last-16 first-leg clash in Turin. It looks a matter of time before Juve wrap up the Scudetto and they can pile on the misery for the Viola, who are without a win in the last four games.

Recommendation: Juventus 2-0
1
 
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Fair Grounds Race 6 for Thursday, March 13, 2014
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #6 - Post: 3:55pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 CHIC JOLIE (ML=8/1)
#7 BEN'S JULIETTE (ML=5/2)


CHIC JOLIE - Clark and Thomas partnered up are a horseplayer's friend. In this race here, this pony has clearly shown signs that she likes the grass. Her speed figs are the highest in the field for this distance-surface. BEN'S JULIETTE - This filly was impressive in finishing second on a slow track on February 27th. A signal that she should do well against these ponies in her first turf try. This filly is a gem of consistency, almost always on the board. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. The 64 most recent race speed rating looks strong in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 K C'S SONGOFPRAYER (ML=7/2), #1A UNCOMMON PRINCESS (ML=7/2), #5 MISS JULIA BETH (ML=6/1),

K C'S SONGOFPRAYER - Don't think this pony has what it takes to be victorious this time. UNCOMMON PRINCESS - In any contest of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in short distance affairs recently. This questionable contender didn't go to the lead and didn't close in the stretch last time she ran. Finished fifth in her most recent race with a most unsatisfactory rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. MISS JULIA BETH - Don't believe this racer is worth 6/1 in this race.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - BEN'S JULIETTE - This trainer Cox's achievements transferring horses from dirt to grass make this mount an extremely strong pick in this event.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 CHIC JOLIE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13400 Class Rating: 69

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 TIPPY DUGAS 9/2

# 6 SHINY CIDE 9/2

# 5 ELLA'S DEELITE 2/1

TIPPY DUGAS has a decent shot to take this race. Must be considered - I like the figs from the last contest. Has to be considered here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. Don't let this mare slip past you. Could prove victorious at big odds. SHINY CIDE - Broberg has a reliable 33 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Ought to come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved speedily to the front end recently. ELLA'S DEELITE - Has competitive speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this event. Looks to have a strong class edge based on the recent company kept.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 3:03pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MOSCATO GIRL (ML=7/2)
#2 MORE STORMYWEATHER (ML=7/2)
#8 CHAIN LIGHTNING (ML=3/1)


MOSCATO GIRL - Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a solid effort on Feb 17th. This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Another way to identify class is earnings per start (EPS). This thoroughbred has the highest in the bunch. I think she'll be close at the end. MORE STORMYWEATHER - The Feb 21st affair at Santa Anita was at a class level of (80). Dropping to a lower level considerably, so she should be in a good position. This filly is in good physical condition, having run a nice race on February 21st, finishing third. CHAIN LIGHTNING - Filly has shown some pace. This shorter distance should be better for her. Got some betting action in maiden race on February 16th at Golden Gate, but finished sixth. Has a shot in this field. Expect better today as this filly gets Lasix for the 2nd time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 NEW NATURE (ML=7/2), #11 WEST COAST STORM (ML=6/1), #10 FASHIONABLY RICH (ML=6/1),

NEW NATURE - Trying to beat this thoroughbred in today's event at the reward of 7/2. WEST COAST STORM - Doesn't seem to have enough good qualities to justify the value. FASHIONABLY RICH - Finished third in her most recent effort with a common speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #6 MOSCATO GIRL to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Santa Anita Park

RACE #2 - SANTA ANITA PARK - 1:30 PM PACIFIC POST
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS ALLOWANCE $58,000.00 PURSE

#5 PIMPERNEL
#4 CHERUBIM
#1 RUM POINT
#3 BEACH HUT

#5 PIMPERNEL is the overall speed leader in this allowance field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, has nice early speed abilities to compliment, and has hit the board in three of his four carer starts to date, with two of those "board hit efforts," including a maiden breaking win in his last start, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." Jockey Martin Garcia and Trainer Bob Baffert send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 54% of nearly 300 entries saddled as a team to date. #4 CHERUBIM, the morning line favorite, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of his last two starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his respective maiden, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS."
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #9 - Post: 5:05pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $48,750 Class Rating: 99

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 AWESOME VOW (ML=5/2)
#5 OASIS AT MIDNIGHT (ML=5/1)
#7 CLOUDY VOW (ML=20/1)


AWESOME VOW - When Navarro gives Cotto a leg up on any noble animal, you know full well that with their winning percentage you have at least a fighting chance. Have to give this mare a shot. Ran a solid contest last out within the last 30 days. I have to like this mare's chances of winning at the shorter trip. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of readiness there is. Look at that last one - 101.4. Very impressive. OASIS AT MIDNIGHT - This filly is in excellent condition right now. Ended up second in the last race and comes back soon. When Bravo and Orseno join forces on horses the ROI has been terrific at +46. CLOUDY VOW - I just may give this one a good chance. Should rebound off last race where she did run out of the top three, but was within 5 lengths at the wire. This filly is certainly on the improve with speed figs of 62, 80, 83 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MALIBU MUDSLIDE (ML=3/1), #2 SUNSET TIME (ML=4/1), #8 SUCCESSFUL LUCK (ML=6/1),

MALIBU MUDSLIDE - The speed figs continue to fall, 90/70/39. Not a good sign. Not likely that the fig she garnered on March 6th will hold up in this affair. SUNSET TIME - This filly garnered a fig in her last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's event. SUCCESSFUL LUCK - Most unsatisfactory speed rating last out at Gulfstream at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #3 AWESOME VOW on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
3 with [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,5,7] with [3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] with [1,2,3,5,7] Total Cost: $36
 

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