Thursday 2/12/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Maywood Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 7:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$2800 - NON-WINNERS OF 4 RACES OR $17,500 LIFETIME TO BE CLAIMED FOR $8,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 BETTOR JUSTICE 5/2


# 4 TRULY WILD 8/1


# 2 LESTRADE HANOVER 8/1


BETTOR JUSTICE sure does look ready to score. Horses beginning from the 5 hole have given players competitive returns on their money. Could dominate this group, just look at the TrackMaster Speed Rating - 71 - from his most recent outing. Post 5 has been winning at a much better than average statistic, suggesting really strong probability of success in this one. TRULY WILD - Excellent driver Hiteman should find the pace of today's gathering to this gelding's liking - could be a good wager. Has a strong shot in this contest, if he can race to his back class. LESTRADE HANOVER - Recorded a 66 speed fig last time out. A duplicate performance here should get the top prize in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 9:45 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$17000 - 4 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 STEALTH JETTA 3/1


# 3 MUSCLE BOYTOY 7/1


# 4 MONTALBANO BI 15/1


We've got a feeling STEALTH JETTA is going to get the win. This horse recorded a very nice TrackMaster SR last time out. Looks fit to come right back. MUSCLE BOYTOY - Talk about a dynamic duo, Henry and Moreau have some of the best driver-trainer figures at the track. With a magnificent driver, who has won at a competitive 20 percent rate over the last 30 days, this has to be one of the best choices. MONTALBANO BI - Has respectable speed ratings and very likely has to be considered for a wager this time. With a 78 avg class rating, this solid standardbred has one of the most solid class edges in the race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5220 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 28, 2015 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 12, 2015 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12, 2014 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 GARANTIA 8/5


# 3 BETTY STARLITE 3/1


# 4 LA DEPRIMIDA 5/2


GARANTIA is my choice. Has to be considered versus this field displaying very good numbers lately and an average Equibase speed fig of 53 under similar conditions. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Rosario ought to have this filly in excellent position to win the affair. Will probably go to the lead and should never look back. BETTY STARLITE - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Encarnacion running at this distance are the top in this field. LA DEPRIMIDA - Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. Handler has strong win rate (21 percent) at this distance and surface.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.2f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $7,000 1 LB.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 BLUEGRASS LUCY 3/1


# 7 G'S BACKINACTION 12/1


# 5 CLASSICSISTER JILL 5/1


BLUEGRASS LUCY looks very strong to best this field. Pedroza has very strong numbers that point to this mare to be a sharp contender. Ought to be given consideration based on the decent Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last race. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the top class figures of this group. G'S BACKINACTION - She has been running solidly lately while recording strong Equibase speed figs. Should go off at a nice price and has some positives going for her. CLASSICSISTER JILL - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Bennett running at this distance are the best in this group. Ought to be carefully examined here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #8 - Post: 4:37pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 TEST RIDE (ML=6/1)
#5 ECHO ZULU (ML=15/1)
#9 PETE'S SLEW (ML=8/1)
#4 SUDDEN RUMOR (ML=12/1)


TEST RIDE - This jock and handler's equines have been generating a lucrative ROI. That 102 fig this gelding earned in his last affair tells me he's a key player this time. ECHO ZULU - McCarthy brings him back again. I advise you stay with this live gelding. PETE'S SLEW - Had a dominant closing move last out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. This gelding is certainly on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 80, 96, 98 last 3 out. SUDDEN RUMOR - I like to play this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp outing within the last month. This one has increased his speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TOSHEEN (ML=3/1), #6 SYNNIN (ML=4/1), #3 FRIENDSWITH K MILL (ML=9/2),

TOSHEEN - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint events in order to wager on him. When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to register a better speed rating than last time out to vie in this turf sprint. SYNNIN - Can't wager on this horse in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event lately. FRIENDSWITH K MILL - Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a short distance event to be any kind of value at small odds in a sprint. Hard to bet on any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the chance.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 TEST RIDE to win if you can get at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[2,5] with [2,4,5,9] with [2,4,5,9] with [2,4,5,7,9,10] with [2,4,5,7,9,10] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream - Race #2 - Post: 1:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 HAPPY TO BE HERE (ML=3/1)
#2 TRITONIAN (ML=4/1)


HAPPY TO BE HERE - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Saez gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. It looks like Saez had to learn about this gelding on Jan 23rd when riding him for the initial time. Back atop again today. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a sharp effort on Jan 23rd. I think this gelding is coming into top form. TRITONIAN - When a pony drops at least five lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but this could make a difference.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SHINNING POWERS (ML=6/5), #5 THE FIVE POINTS (ML=8/1),

SHINNING POWERS - This horse likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Forget the top spot. THE FIVE POINTS - Hard to take this mount at the price after the finish (seventh) in the last race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 HAPPY TO BE HERE to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #2 - AQUEDUCT - 1:49 PM EASTERN POST -

6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $50,000.00 CLAIMING $44,000.00 PURSE

#1 ERIK THE RED
#6 MANADO
#2 PALM ISLAND
#5 MISCHIEVIOUSLY

#1 ERIK THE RED has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last five outings overall, including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+5) in his 5th race back.Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Linda Rice send him "postward" this afternoon ... they've hit the board with 54% of nearly 75 entries saddled as a team to date. #6 MANADO has exceptional early speed abilities to compliment for this inner track sprint, and has also produced a trio of "POWER RUNS" in his last five "adventures," hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his respective 5th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Entries came out yesterday for Saturday’s $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields, one of two Derby points races coming up this holiday weekend. On Monday, three-year-olds will battle in the $300,000 Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

A field of 10 was entered in the El Camino Real, with the Mark Casse trained Conquest Typhoon the 7-2 morning line favorite. The colt has landed in the exacta in five of his six starts, the lone miss coming in a fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last November.

In his last outing, the colt won the Cecil B. Demille (G3) on turf going a mile at Del Mar. Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith will be in the irons. The colt is currently at odds of 175-1 in early Kentucky Derby betting.

Jockey Russell Baze has dominated this race, winning eight times including last year with Tamarando, who was trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who has won the race six times.

They will team up with Stand and Salute (6-1), who won the Gold Rush Stakes over the surface on Dec. 6 and in his most recent outing, was third in the California Derby. He is listed at 175-1 in Kentucky Derby early wagering.

An interesting runner is the Dale Romans trained Indianaughty (4-1), who beat first level optional claimers last out in his U.S. debut on turf at Gulfstream Park. He broke his maiden over the all-weather surface at Lingfield in his previous outing. His Kentucky Derby future price at Sportsbook.ag is 70-1.

I will have my final analysis and selections for the race in Saturday’s column. We will be in action on Monday as well, with a full card from Aqueduct and Best Plays which will feature races from Oaklawn Park including the Southwest, with entries for that race coming out today.


Here is today’s opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $10,000 (1:20 ET)
1 Petrocelli 6-5
4 State Flag 5-2
5 Lubango 7-2
3 Holy Invader 8-1

Analysis: Petrocelli set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out for a $16,000 tag in his first start off the claim by the Gullo barn that is having a strong meeting. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and draws the rail here was he drops in for a $10,000 tag. He looks tough here at a short price and is going to prove tough to catch.

State Flag made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out for this tag. The winner of the race was Lucky Lotto, who came back to beat $12,500 claimers in his next start by eight lengths here on Feb. 5. Looks headed in the right direction as he makes his third start off the claim by the Gargan barn.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 1-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 6 Clm $25,000N3L (3:45 ET)
2 Son of Dixie 2-1
6 Winter Games 3-1
1 Call Wil 6-1
7 First Bid 5-2

Analysis: Son of Dixie caught a muddy track last out where he set the early fractions and weakened to finish a close up third versus $25,000 starter allowance foes. The gelding beat $25,000 non-winners of two in his previous outing, his first trip on the inner track. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and is a logical player in here for the Nevin barn that has been sending out live runners at the meeting.

Winter Games is making his first start since July for the Englehart barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. When last seen last summer at the Spa the gelding was beating $25,000 non-winners of two in gate to wire fashion going nine furlongs. He broke his maiden on the inner track. A couple of decent works on the morning tab for a barn that can win off the bench.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Holy Invader 8-1
R3: #3 Zippity Zoom 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 2/12 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4 TICKET:

8 / 1,3,5 / 3,4,9 / 5,6,9 = $27

MEET STATS: 64 - 166 / $364.40 BEST BETS: 9 - 16 / $38.10

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 15 / $54.20

Best Bet: BAD FOX (4th)

Spot Play: MOREMUNKYBUSINESS (7th)


Race 1

(6) MURS SON left for position then stayed in and rallied up the inside to just miss on a night where that wasn’t the best path in the lane. He continues to improve and should get a more aggressive steer from Henry here. (1) HARTNELL trotted a big third quarter and has shown good late speed in both his qualifier and comeback start. He should be right there with these. (5) TYMAL SIGNATURE set the pace to the lane and hung in there decently. He can get a good share here.

Race 2

(9) CAPELO fired off a big mile first off the claim for the Fine barn; call right back. (5) JUST PLAIN LUCK couldn’t make much headway first up vs. the choice but can be a factor again with a better trip. (8) A AND C ARTIST could be more dangerous if Drury left hard and sat in Capelo’s pocket. That could happen, which would make him a win threat.

Race 3

We’ll call (4) WAKE N BAKE to upset this leg of the Miss Vera Bars series, anticipating some of the contenders to be passively driven and this one to get a more aggressive steer. (8) MAPLELEA came with an impressive rush last week but will likely have to swoop them all again to win, which is no easy task week after week. (2) NIPPY W HANOVER failed first-over as the big favorite last week, but may revert to her more effective front end style here.

Race 4

(8) BAD FOX went an unreal first-over trip first off the claim and was only beaten in the final stride by one he provided perfect cover for. Expect McNair to look for the front earlier in this mile. (7) ELECTRIFY had too many in front of him that got great trips to try to pass, but he wasn’t far away at the wire. He will get there soon. (1) SEA STAR continues to race well when aggressively handled; for another share here.

Race 5

(5) YOUR MY SECRET really improved in her past two starts and deserves top call in her first race at Woodbine. (1) WARAWEE QUALLY continues to hang in the lane and will once again be overbet to win based on her consistent streak of shares. (3) MIDNIGHT JET is out of a dam that produced three winners from as many starters including 1:49 2/5 performer Stolen Car. She has some upset potential.

Race 6

(9) KIWI PRES was called to win from the 10-hole last week and went right down the road at a good price. These are a bit tougher but he may be up to it. (4) JLS TIMES R GOOD couldn’t match Big Package twice in this class, but raced well first off the claim last week and is a threat here. (2) MAGIC MADNESS has hit his best stride and needs to be kept on pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

(9) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS showed good late speed first time over the track off a 24-day break in action. Call to upset these. (6) WILDCAT MAGIC got too far back early from the 10-hole but was motoring nicely at the end of her mile. She will be handled more aggressively here and is the one to beat. (5) B SANTANNAS LOVE went two big first up trips in a row getting nailed by the same very good winner both times. She would be extra dangerous with a covered trip.

Race 8

(6) STEALTH JETTA let an impressive winner get the jump on him in the third quarter last week, but these may be easier; top call. (2) JAYPORT ALL MUSCLE returned from a brief break with a big mile to finally break his maiden. The step up isn’t easy, obviously, but he may have found something. (8) SHOPSMAGICWAND was hung out a long way to make the top and hung in there well considering. She would be more dangerous if she were to clear quickly from the outset.

Race 9

(9) PINOT GRIGIO was an impressive debut winner, making an eye-catching final 1/4 move to vault past the leaders. A couple of these are a lot tougher, but she could be this good. (4) CAST NO SHADOW is the obvious danger off two impressive comeback wins. (7) FROSTY DELIGHT raced much better last week and may be coming into her best form finally.

Race 10

This looks like a race where 2014 ‘O Brien winner Christoforou will perfectly trip out (4) PLAY GROUND to chase down a group of winded leaders. It seems highly likely the second 1/2 will be much slower than the first. (5) T R LEXUS CAM comes in from Flamboro for trainer Stewart in top form, but her racing style conflicts with a few others. She should get a big piece regardless. (2) CALL ME MAYBE should be able to use her deep closing style to advantage here and come on late for a good share. (9) ONE BADLAND NIGHT was very obviously best last out and was raced that way down the backside while hustled to the front. It will be interesting to see what A-Mac does here from the outset. (7) COUNTRY DELIGHT has really turned things around in 2015, earning more money than she did last year in just 5 starts. She is a contender here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Thursday 2/12 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 93 - 375 / $523.50 BEST BETS: 10 - 28 / $37.00

Best Bet: WHERES THE CLICKER (3rd)

Spot Play: RAGE N RYAN (9th)


Race 1

(8) WESTERN TSUNAMI just failed on the engine last week but doesn’t look any less appealing. You know he’ll be in the mix and let’s hope he gets his nose to the wire first. (2) LOCKLOADNEXPLODE ships in from Dover for a new barn and also adds Gingras to the equation. (4) FOX VALLEY TYRESE finally gets a good post to work with. Gelding has no excuses. (1) CORKY BARAN won for this tag most recently.

Race 2

(4) MM’S ROANIE reunites with Brett Miller, who got the most out of this mare back on January 8. This is as blank a field as you’ll see at the Meadowlands. (9) SHELIKESCANDY gets some class relief but likely needs to post a lifetime mark to win. (7) RC MARQUEE has been closing for minor spoils of late.

Race 3

(5) WHERES THE CLICKER had a hint of late trot while facing better foes last week. Team Simons has been warming up in recent weeks and this guy is in a prime spot. (1) BORN TO FIGHT has early speed and an inside post to help the cause. (2) THOUGHTFILLY finally stayed flat in her most recent try. I wouldn’t be shocked if she won.

Race 4

(1) PASSING JETTA drops out of the Singer series and into a more comfortable spot. (8) DYNAMITE DAME certainly improved with Lasix and Gingras added. (9) DRESS FOR SUCCESS worked out a clean trip last time. That will be more difficult from post 9. (4) ULSTER showed no signs of breaking in his recent qualifier.

Race 5

(10) PENN TURBO TED scored for me at 7-1 a couple of weeks back despite an outer post. He is as good as any in here and should offer reasonable value. (4) WHITTAKER drops to the lowest claiming level he has seen in a short while and also adds Gingras; things to like. (2) S F LAW has gained confidence at Freehold. (1) LLC DELIGHT seems like a lock to get into the exotics somewhere.

Race 6

(2) JL CRUZE is perfectly drawn to make a quick brush to the front. I don’t see him getting pushed hard enough early to result in a defeat. (1) OPULENT YANKEE is a clear second best with a chance at an upset. (7) TWO HIP DIP appeared ready to roll to victory when he broke. Four-year-old has some talent but remains erratic.

Race 7

(2) URBANITE HANOVER leads another tough field to handicap. Was a driving winner in his qualifier without a catch-driver. I have a feeling Yannick will get this guy in gear. (3) UP UP AND OUT shipped to Freehold on Monday and perked up in a hurry. Trainer Nick Surick tends to do very well when he races horses back on short rest. (1) NABBER AGAIN has displayed some alertness in recent races; definite chance.

Race 8

(3) FOX VALLEY LEGEND has been too far back due to outside posts. If Marohn can keep him in striking position this gelding has a big shot. (1) WHATA WINNER comes off a nice effort in this condition and has plenty of back class. (6) CALIPARI has been in against better foes and does make his third start following a mini break; using.

Race 9

(2) RAGE N RYAN was used early following a four week layoff and still put in a credible effort. I’m expecting him to be sharper this week. (9) MC ATTABOY finished well last time and seems like a nice fit in this race. (4) MEGA LIGHTNING could make some noise if he doesn’t have to work so hard to make the top.

Race 10

(1) RHAPSODY ROSE could be viewed as coming up short lately, but she was used hard in both recent races and finds a field without much early zip. (2) LOVE YOU BYE also has speed and drew alongside. Both should sit close. (6) WESTERN EMPRESS comes off a good effort for the team of Burke/Gingras. (3) FRONTIERPAN is at a winning level if she can pick up her game a notch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 2/12 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 19 - 108 / $223.70 BEST BETS: 2 - 9 / $10.00

Best Bet: I’M THE REAL MAJOR (3rd)

Spot Play: PRECIOUS ROSE N (7th)


Race 1

(1) BITTERSWEET DREAMS has pulled off two straight victories. With the rail slot, she should keep on her winning ways. (3) NUTMEGS DESIRE should fare well from the 3-hole. (5) TASHIA is knocking at the door based on her last two trips.

Race 2

(5) ALITTLEEASTERMAGIC just got up for the victory in her latest. Pacing miss seems to be in good form and the repeat is not out of the question. (2) AUF WIEDERSEHEN was nailed for win honors in her last try. (1) DELLA BEA was facing better at The Meadowlands last week.

Race 3

(2) IM THE REAL MAJOR gets a better post to work with and Brennan is keeping the faith with this gelding; threat at his best. (4) DINNER GUEST rallied strongly last out from the 8-hole to grab the show spot. (1) ABBEYLARA moves back to the rail where he was a good second two trips ago.

Race 4

(2) CUT A DEAL has tactical speed and gets a cozy post to rate and score over this weak group. (5) HOOSIER CHATTER has a late kick and could contend in here. (1) PURITY could land a share from the fence.

Race 5

(1) YOU LITTLE RASCAL took the pocket route home to victory in her last start. Pacing mare can boss these from the pole position for her second straight score. (4) GIVEITTOEMSTAIGHT did show good late punch two starts back; main danger. (2) MY IDEAL can be right in the mix.

Race 6

(8) KEYSTONE RAPTOR has the speed to overcome the eight slot. So with that said, a clean trip can get this 8-year-old back to the winner's circle. Meadowlands shipper (2) TOP GEAR retains the 2-hole and Brennan signs on to drive; dangerous. (1) FOOL TO CRY was caught at the wire for the score last time around; not out of this.

Race 7

(7) PRECIOUS ROSE N was very sharp in her last three starts. She has a good chance to boss these at her best. (3) RD IOU seems to be coming around based on her last three seconds in a row; big threat. (1) HUSTLEONHOME was nailed for win honors in deep stretch in her most recent trip and retains the rail tonight; watch out.

Race 8

(2) QUICKSILVERCANDY A gets serious post relief and that can help her cause; down the road tonight. (3) CANTTAKEITWITHYOU put in a nice bid in her last trip. (8) RUNAWAY ROSE rallied strongly for win honors last time out.

Race 9

(1) MANDYS MATTJESTY moves to the fence where she was a sharp victor four starts ago at The Meadowlands. She might be ready to make tonight a winning one with Brennan at the controls. (3) GROUNDED was second best at this level in her latest; main danger. (5) JOKES JET put in a mild rally last time out.

Race 10

(4) MACHO CHICK took off like a shot from the 8-hole, secured the pocket and took dead aim on the leader in deep stretch for the score at 59-1. She is very capable of getting the job done again. (2) STORMUNN has put in two seconds in row at the Big M. (5) CHEYENNE MIRIAM fits well with these and could contend in here.

Race 11

(6) SAMS ESCAPE just missed the victory in his last try. Gelding is in good form and he could put his best foot forward given a clean trip. (2) GIDDY UP DELIGHT flashed good speed in his last start and should be a factor with this group. (3) ROADWAY posted an even finish in his last one and could have a say in the outcome.

Race 12

(4) DELICIOUSLYNAUGHTY was over her head at the Big M last time around but this should be a perfect fit for this pacing mare to bring home all the bacon. (2) ALWAYS LOVE ME is much better than her latest; threat. (1) SIR LEHIGH Z TAM gets serious post relief; not out of this by far.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Palm Island, 4-1
(6th) Winter Games, 3-1


Charles Town (1st) Love to the Max, 9-2
(6th) Clean Heir, 9-2


Delta Downs (7th) Sweet Alice Benbow, 3-1
(10th) Rebel Aire, 7-2


Fair Grounds (1st) Gray Day Lover, 9-2
(6th) Fine Assay, 5-1


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Golden Sale, 7-2
(7th) Novato Scorch, 10-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Stormin' Jorja, 6-1
(10th) Hard Enough, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (3rd) Indian Companion, 6-1
(6th) South Beach Dancer, 7-2


Penn National (1st) Officer Fred, 4-1
(7th) Lightnin Lizzie, 6-1


Santa Anita (1st) Spirit of Ten, 3-1
(6th) Price of Glory, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Over the Cliff, 5-1
(7th) Greely Is Back, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sprint Cup Unlimited
By Micah Roberts

The agonizing wait for any type of NASCAR racing in the new year in finally over. Usually we have some preseason Daytona testing in early January which gives an idea of who will be fast in February and then later in the month Las Vegas would have a test session to give an idea on who will be fast on 1.5-mile tracks. But not this year because of NASCAR’s new policy on testing aimed at keeping competition equal for lesser funded teams.

On Friday, we’ll all get our first real look at 2015 NASCAR as 25 cars will be practicing for Saturday night’s Sprint Unlimited, which is a 75-lap non-points race consisting mostly of past pole winners and all those who participated in last years Chase. After examining what happened in those practices and the actual race, we should have a good idea of who will fare the best in the Daytona 500 on Feb. 22.

Despite almost five dozen changes to the rules package for 2015, I’ve been told by a few guys in the garages that racing at Daytona will be very similar to what we saw last season, which basically means that anyone can win the race. So after all the rule changes, we can pretty much say picking a winner at Daytona is just as hard as it’s been for the past few years where we’ve seen the likes of long shots David Ragan and Trevor Bayne sneak in for victories.

Just about every book has odds posted for Saturday night’s race. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch listed as 10/1 co-favorites (Bet $100 to win $1,000) followed by seven drivers at 12/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,200). The longest shots of the bunch are Danica Patrick and Martin Truex Jr. at 40/1 each.

Any type of wager on the Sprint Unlimited is not a smart wager because there’s nothing to really go off of, but I don’t really care at this point because I’m so starved for any kind of NASCAR action that I have to throw a few dollars down just to feel like I’m part of it again.

But we can fool ourselves into thinking it's a smart wager by looking at some past history which will at least make us feel a little more confident at the bet window. It’s still a crap shoot, but there’s nothing wrong with feeling like you’ve made a good choice by having some solid statistical data behind the selections.

So let’s talk about who some of the top candidates might be.

Denny Hamlin (12/1): For the past two seasons, the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have been consistent performers in restrictor-plate races at Daytona and Talladega, despite wins not reflecting it. Last year Hamlin won the Sprint Unlimited, won one of the Budweiser Duels and then finished second in the Daytona 500. He would later win at Talladega for his only points-paying victory of the season. Armed with new crew chief Dave Rogers, who moved over from Kyle Busch’s team, and also a keen sense of how the draft works, Hamlin appears to be the top candidate to win Saturday night.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1): He’s won this race twice, the last being in 2008, but he also won the Daytona 500 last year, which was his first plate win since 2004. He’ll have a car that can compete for the win and he’s fired up about the season after piling up four wins last year.

Brad Keselowski (12/1): He’s got multiple wins at Talladega, but Daytona has eluded him somehow, although he finished a career best third-place in last years Daytona 500. After racking up a series high six wins last season and getting screwed by the new Chase format, he should be hungry and ready for the season to start.

Jeff Gordon (12/1): He last won this race in 1997 when it was called the Busch Clash and he last won at Daytona in 2005, but this year might be different as every race he enters will be the last of his career this season. He’s calling it quits following the season, so for nostalgia purposes there’s nothing wrong with betting him to win and if he doesn’t, you’ve got yourself a souvenir slip -- Gordon’s last Clash/Shootout/Sprint Unlimited start. He also has piled up a NASCAR record 12 wins in restrictor-plate races.

Kurt Busch (15/1): He’s never won a restrictor-plate points race, but he did win this race in 2011 while driving for Roger Penske. I liked what I saw out of him at Daytona last year -- most of all leading a race-high 36 laps in the rain shortened July race at Daytona. He finished third that day. With pending litigation in Delaware over a domestic dispute with his girlfriend, the Las Vegan probably can’t wait to get in his car this weekend and finally go to work.

Greg Biffle (25/1): We haven't seen a Ford win this race since Dale Jarrett in 2004 and Biffle's only career win in a plate race came at Daytona in the summer of 2003, but he's shown to be quite capable of running well in these type of races. Last season in May's Talladega event he led a race-high 58 laps before finishing second behind Hamlin. He also holds the record in this race for leading the most laps (44) without winning (2005). The Roush-Fenway Racing organization lost Carl Edwards over the winter to JGR, so it will be Biffle leading the charge with the RFR flag.

Field (10/1): In this pool at the Westgate, you get Paul Menard, Clint Bowyer and Casey Mears added after qualified drivers Brian Vickers, Brian Scott and A.J. Allmendinger pulled out. The three late additions have shown to be very comfortable in plate races. In two points-paying races at Daytona last season for Mears, he finished 10th and fourth. Bowyer was third in both Talladega races and Menard led three times for 29 laps in the Daytona 500.

The bottom line to remember here is that this is an exhibition race where anything can happen, so don't go crazy with the wagers. Be cautious, thrifty and wise, but most of all root the heck out of the driver or two you do eventually choose to support.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
2) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (12/1)
5) #41 Kurt Busch (15/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golf: The End of Tiger Woods
By Dan Daly

The New England Patriots may have won the Super Bowl as a team but Gronk won the parade by himself. He is bordering on GOAT status. Classic!

Warning: Before reading any further please make sure and activate your glutes. Not doing so may result in injury not allowing you to finish this article.

My dad once shot a 64 at Spyglass Hill…on the front nine. He also declared earlier that weekend that he preferred the Spanish Bay golf course to Pebble Beach because “I lost less golf balls there.” I tell you this not to make fun of my dad; he is a proud 30 handicap, god bless him. I tell you this because if you put a $100 bill on the table and dropped 5 golf balls just off a green I would seriously have to think about who I would bet on in a short game contest between my dad and Tiger.

I’ve seen some amazing things in my lifetime as a sports fan. Some good, some bad and some that are just out and out unexplainable. What has happened to Tiger Woods the last 18 months (plus or minus) may be the most shocking thing I will see in my lifetime though. Outside of Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods was arguably the greatest or at least most dominate athlete of this generation. Yet in the last 500+ days, Tiger has finished a final round in an official PGA Tour event…twice. His last nine starts ended; MDF, WD, T25, MC, 69th, WD, MC, MC, WD. That is amazing in and of itself until you consider that he has only had nine starts in that span. This is a guy that once won 7 starts in a row in a six-month span from August 2006-January 2007.

With all of the injuries and stops and starts he has had along the way, I can overlook the missed fairways, loose wedge shots and overall rust that he has had dating back to the beginning of the 2014 season. But I can’t even begin to wrap my brain around his overall short game meltdown in that same span. Outside of maybe Seve (Ballesteros), Tiger was the greatest short game player that has ever played the game of golf and now I would legitimately consider betting on my dad, a 30 handicap almost twice his age, in a short game competition. Now maybe his short game debacle would be less apparent if Tiger was hitting more greens (just 2 of 11 Thursday and 18 of 36 last week) but some of his chip shots recently would be embarrassing in a Friday Country Club game among double digit handicappers, much less a 14-time Major Champion.

It’s gotten so bad that even the folks in the desert have lost full faith in Tiger. A guy that once teed off at the Masters a +125 favorite (Bet $100 to win $125) went off at Torrey Pines this past week, a place he has won EIGHT tournaments (one with a broken leg) at 50/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $5,000). He was -140 just to make the cut. That is so unfathomable to me I don’t know where to begin. This is the same guy that won five tournaments in 2013 and nine tournaments between January 2012 and August 2013, and was No. 1 in the world just eight months ago. To drop this far, this fast is simply unimaginable to me.

I received no less than 25 text messages on Thursday in some way or another referencing steroids and Tiger’s WD/recent injury string. I don’t know if it’s true or not, or if one has to do with the other. I’m not a doctor nor do I play one on TV, but I do know that athletes, in any sport, eventually wear down both in ability and physically. Tiger is no exception. But to this degree? This quickly?

I don’t know if this is the end of the line for Tiger, most would argue that it is, and quite frankly it would be hard to argue against them at this point. But if it is, what a horrible way to go out and a major loss for the sport whether you love or hate him.

While I wasn’t old enough to remember the end of Jack’s career, I do know that after winning nine times between 1978-1980 he only went on to win three more times the rest of his career, but I can’t imagine that it ended quite like this. Maybe I’m naïve or it was just more of wishful thinking, but I always imagined Tiger slowly fading out of contention over time, winning once a year, then once every other year with one last 1986 Masters type run in him as a final curtain call. Never in my wildest imagination did I, or anyone else see this coming. Unable to even finish 18 holes more times than not, sculling and chunking routine wedge shots, a complete head case (which may be the most shocking of all) and simply put, sucking at golf.

And maybe this isn’t the end of Tiger Woods, he did go two and half years between wins from September 2009 – March 2012, but ask yourself this question, if the 11-year-old girl that qualified for the women’s US Open last year played Tiger straight up from the women’s tee’s tomorrow and you had to bet your life on who would win, who would you take? Sure, you would take Tiger, but the fact that a) you would actually have to even stop for one second and think about it; b) the fact that I can even write that sentence with 100% seriousness; and c) it would actually be a close match is all you need to know about Tiger Woods golf game right now.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golf Solid field visits Pebble Beach

Tournament: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
Date: Feb. 12 - 15
Venue: Spyglass Hill GC
Location: Pebble Beach, CA

In what is always a fun and eventful week, the PGA heads to Pebble Beach, CA for the AT&T National Pro-Am starting Thursday morning. The event is the most popular Pro-Am tournament in the history of the game and will draw some big celebrity names once again this year with the likes of Bill Murray, Wayne Gretzky, Don Cheadle, Andy Garcia, Buster Posey and Ray Romano all competing.

The player’s field will actually be pretty decent this year as well with nine of the top-25 golfers in the world playing across the three courses; including last week’s winner of the Farmer’s Insurance Open, No. 4 player in the world, Jason Day.

There will also be two multiple-time winners of the tourney playing this week as both Dustin Johnson (2009, 2010) and Davis Love III (2001, 2003) will attempt to grab a third victory here while Jimmy Walker looks to make it back-to-back wins after a score of 11-under last year despite a Sunday round of 74.

Let’s take a look at a few players who have what it takes to win at one of the more laid-back tournaments at these beautiful California courses.

Golfers to Watch

Jimmy Walker (7/1): Walker is once again putting together a huge season after winning three of his first eight tournaments last year as he leads the FedEx cup rankings with four top-10 finishes in his six events this season. He’s already earned a win (Sony Open) as well and will be defending his title from last year at Pebble Beach when he was able to rattle off three consecutive rounds of 69 or better to start the week before just holding off Dustin Johnson and Jim Renner after a rough final day. Walker has been solid in all facets of the game, ranking 14th in driving distance (302.4 yards per), 10th in strokes-gained putting (.914) and 29th in GIR (72.2%) as he looks to have another big week.

Dustin Johnson (14/1): Johnson had to shake of the rust in his return from a six-month personal absence this past week and despite missing the cut, showed some solid play as he crushed the ball for an average of 320.3 yards per and holed an eagle on his fourth hole to start the tourney. His history here is hard to ignore as he put together back-to-back wins in 2009 and 2010 and has continued to play well with a fifth-place finish in 2012 and a runner-up performance last year. He should be warmed up after last week and will be paired with his future father-in-law, Wayne Gretzky, allowing him to relax and compete for the top position once again come Sunday.

Kevin Na (35/1): Na is an incredible talent that has made the cut in each of his past five events and has had a round of 70 or better in seven of his past eight times on the course. He has just one PGA victory under his belt, but has been close to grabbing a trophy at Pebble Beach with a top-25 placing in each of the past three visits here which included a fifth-place in 2012 and a fourth-place last year when he shot eight-under. Look for Na to make a run this week and be near the top of the leaderboard.

Alexander Levy (75/1): Levy will come over from the European Tour to play his first PGA event since the WGC-HSBC Champions event where he finished 14th back in November. He has climbed up to 52nd in the world rankings after two victories and one lost playoff across the pond last season. He’s placed 30th or better in three of his four starts this year and should surprise many with some strong play on U.S. soil in this event.

Daniel Berger (140/1): Berger is one of five rookies amongst the top-50 in the FedEx Cup standings to start this year and he has done so behind four top-25 finishes with his best coming a few weeks ago when he placed 10th at the Waste Management Open. This California swing is a great opportunity for youngsters to get some rounds in without the pressure of a tremendous field and Berger should be able to put up another solid showing with his big drive (304.6 yards per, 9th on tour) this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Betting Odds
Jason Day 6/1
Jimmy Walker 7/1
Jordan Spieth 11/1
Dustin Johnson 14/1
Patrick Reed 15/1
Brandt Snedeker 21/1
Ryan Palmer 21/1
Hunter Mahan 22/1
Chris Kirk 30/1
Graham Delaet 30/1
J.B. Holmes 30/1
Jim Furyk 30/1
Nick Watney 30/1
Kevin Na 35/1
Billy Horschel 40/1
Shane Lowry 40/1
Brendon Todd 50/1
Ian Poulter 50/1
Jason Kokrak 50/1
Spencer Levin 70/1
Alexander Levy 75/1
Kevin Streelman 75/1
Sang-Moon Bae 75/1
Seung-Yul Noh 85/1
Kevin Chappell 95/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Pat Perez 100/1
Rory Sabbatini 100/1
Bryce Molder 120/1
Daniel Summerhays 120/1
Ernie Els 120/1
Michael Thompson 120/1
Zac Blair 120/1
Daniel Berger 140/1
Alex Prugh 150/1
Jonas Blixt 160/1
Marcel Siem 180/1
Matt Jones 190/1
Colt Knost 200/1
Nick Taylor 200/1
James Hahn 210/1
Steven Bowditch 210/1
Brian Stuard 220/1
Chesson Hadley 220/1
Greg Owen 220/1
Charlie Wi 240/1
Michael Putnam 240/1
Padraig Harrington 240/1
William McGirt 240/1
Alex Cejka 250/1
Andres Gonzales 250/1
Andrew Loupe 250/1
Andrew Putnam 250/1
Ben Curtis 250/1
Billy Hurley III 250/1
Blake Adams 250/1
Blayne Barber 250/1
Bo Van Pelt 250/1
Brian Davis 250/1
Brice Garnett 250/1
Cameron Percy 250/1
Cameron Smith 250/1
Chad Collins 250/1
Charlie Beljan 250/1
Chez Reavie 250/1
Chris Stroud 250/1
D.A. Points 250/1
Danny Lee 250/1
David Hearn 250/1
David Lingmerth 250/1
Davis Love III 250/1
Derek Fathauer 250/1
Dicky Pride 250/1
Fabian Gomez 250/1
Fred Funk 250/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 250/1
Greg Chalmers 250/1
Heath Slocum 250/1
Hudson Swafford 250/1
J.J. Henry 250/1
Jason Bohn 250/1
Jason Gore 250/1
Jim Renner 250/1
John Huh 250/1
John Merrick 250/1
John Rollins 250/1
Johnson Wagner 250/1
Jonathan Byrd 250/1
Josh Teater 250/1
Justin Hicks 250/1
Ken Duke 250/1
Kenny Perry 250/1
Kevin Kisner 250/1
Kyle Reifers 250/1
Kyle Stanley 250/1
Mark Hubbard 250/1
Max Homa 250/1
Mike Weir 250/1
Nicholas Thompson 250/1
Oliver Goss 250/1
Richard Sterne 250/1
Ricky Barnes 250/1
Robert Garrigus 250/1
Roberto Castro 250/1
Rod Pampling 250/1
Scott Brown 250/1
Scott Langley 250/1
Scott Pinckney 250/1
Sean O'Hair 250/1
Steve Wheatcroft 250/1
Stuart Appleby 250/1
Sung Joon Park 250/1
Tommy Gainey 250/1
Trevor Immelman 250/1
Troy Merritt 250/1
Vaughn Taylor 250/1
Vijay Singh 250/1
Will Wilcox 250/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 60

Event: UFC Fight Night 60
Date: Saturday, February 14, 2015
TV/Time: (Fox Sports 1, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: 1st Bank Center
City: Broomfield, Colorado

Welterweight Bout: Benson Henderson (21-5) vs. Brandon Thatch (11-1)

Line: Henderson -110, Thatch -110

Benson Henderson moves up a weight-class and fights on short notice for the injured Stephen Thompson this Valentine’s day against Brandon Thatcher in the main event at UFC 60.

The 31-year-old Benson Henderson is coming off the first two-match losing streak of his career when a controversial unanimous decision gave Donald Cerrone the victory after three rounds on January 18th. His three losses in the last five matches will have him ready to go on short notice in this one, but the last time he fought with such little rest was in 2007 and he lost in just 46 seconds by submission (Anaconda Choke) against Rocky Johnson.

Brandon Thatch will bring the heat against any of his opponents and he has won eight of his 11 bouts by way of knockout. He typically gets things done quickly with his average match lasting just four minutes and 11 seconds and he has gone past the first round just once; a loss to Brandon Magana in a decision back in 2008. The extra rest that Thatch has had should give him a leg up on Henderson, but the freakish athletic ability of the southpaw still gives him an edge in his ability to keep up his quickness and speed. Look for Thatch to expel a ton of energy early, and if he is unable to get an early knockout, fall behind as Henderson dances circles around him.

“Smooth” Henderson has some advantages in this one with his experience and quickness, but his small frame could take a beating if he allows the short rest to get to him. He has the tremendous ability of avoiding hard hits, taking just 1.64 strikes per minute as he usually attempts to get in a few key hits and eventually just outlast his opponent. Of his 21 career victories, Henderson has just 2 TKOs while getting most of his wins by either submission (9) or decision (10).

Early on in his career, Henderson was a different fighter, winning each of his first six victories by either submissions or TKO but still has the ability to get to his opponent in many different ways with quick strikes (2.88 per min.) and 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes while giving Thatch a much different opponent than he had in his first two UFC matches.

When Brandon “Rukus” Thatch wins a fight, he doesn’t fool around, and in his first two UFC matches he has knocked out his opponent in an average of less than two minutes as he lands 8.17 strikes per minute in that time. Overall in his MMA career, Thatch has been aggressive, never going longer than the first round with his victories as he attacks early on with plenty of knees to the body and head of his opponents.

His 10-match winning streak will certainly be put to the test in this one, though; as Henderson is the former lightweight champion and can often use the aggressiveness of others to gain an edge as he lets them get tired out. Thatch will not win this fight if it goes longer than five minutes, so he will need to sneak in some hard hits early to have any sort of chance.

Other UFC Fight Night 60 Bouts

Lightweight Matchup:
James Moontasri
Cody Pfister

Flyweight Matchup:
Zach Makovsky
Tim Elliott

Featherweight Matchup:
Chas Skelly
Jim Alers

Lightweight Matchup:
Efrain Escudero
Rodrigo de Lima

Featherweight Matchup:
Nik Lentz
Levan Makashvili

Flyweight Matchup:
Ray Borg
Chris Kelades

Lightweight Matchup:
Michel Prazeres
Kevin Lee

Middleweight Matchup:
Dan Kelly
Patrick Walsh

Welterweight Matchup:
Neil Magny
Kiichi Kunimoto

Featherweight Matchup:
Max Holloway
Cole Miller

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Short fights the norm for Brandon Thatch
Justin Hartling

All of Brandon Thatch's 11 career MMA victories have ended within the first round. Of those 11 victories, seven came by T/KO and four by submission.

'Rukus' has one professional loss that came early in his career, but that fight went the distance. Worth noting as Hatch's opponent, Benson Henderson, has gone the distance in nine of his 12 UFC fights.

Thatch is currently -125, for his main event fight Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Johnson-Horiguchi to co-main event UFC 186
Justin Hartling

Demetrious Johnson will defend his flyweight championship against Kyoji Horiguchi at UFC 186. The fight has replaced the Rory MacDonald-Hector Lombard match which was removed from the card without reason by the UFC.

'Mighty Mouse' has won seven consecutive matches, including five title defenses of the belt. Horiguchi is riding an impressive nine-straight winning streak, including all four of his UFC fights.

UFC 186 takes place on April 25 in Montreal, Quebec.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Grand Salami - February

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
2/1 4 22.5 22 UNDER
2/2 3 15.5 25 OVER
2/3 11 60 55 UNDER
2/4 3 16.5 11 UNDER
2/5 9 49.5 43 UNDER
2/6 5 27 25 UNDER
2/7 11 58 57 UNDER
2/8 8 43 45 OVER
2/9 5 25.5 28 OVER
2/10 9 50.5 47 UNDER
2/11 3 16.5 23 OVER
2/12 9 - - -
2/13 5 - - -
2/14 10 - - -
2/15 5 - - -
2/16 8 - - -
2/17 7 - - -
2/18 6 - - -
2/19 7 - - -
2/20 7 - - -
2/21 11 - - -
2/22 8 - - -
2/23 2 - - -
2/24 11 - - -
2/25 3 - - -
2/26 9 - - -
2/27 6 - - -
2/28 10 - - -