Christmas Tips - Late Action
By Kevin Rogers
Cavaliers at Heat – 5:30 PM EST
The obvious storyline on Christmas is LeBron James making his return to South Florida after opting out of his contract in July to sign with Cleveland. However, this much of a drop-off with the four-time defending Eastern Conference champion Heat is staggering, as Miami has started 13-16 in the post-LeBron era, while coming off their most embarrassing loss of the season.
The Heat blew a 23-point third quarter lead in a 91-87 setback to the 76ers, who entered the game with just three wins in their first 26 tries. Miami was limited to nine points in the final quarter, as Chris Bosh sat out his sixth straight contest with a calf strain (2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS). Bosh is questionable for Thursday’s game, as the Heat is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS as a home underdog this season, which includes back-to-back covers against the Celtics and Wizards in this role.
The Cavaliers have had their ups and downs in their first season back with James, owning a 17-10 record, as Cleveland has won four of its previous five games since back-to-back losses at Oklahoma City and New Orleans. David Blatt’s team blew out the Timberwolves on Tuesday, 125-104 as 14-point favorites to improve to 11-5 at Quicken Loans Arena. Kevin Love put up 20 points and 10 rebounds in his first game against his former team, just the second cover in the past eight contests for the Cavaliers.
Chris David gives his spin on this matchup, “Bettors should be real careful playing the emotional angle for this game, especially with the Heat. Most of us would like to believe that Miami will get up for this game but it’s hard for me to back a team that has been embarrassing to watch at home this season. Scoring just nine points in the fourth quarter in Tuesday’s loss to the 76ers was pathetic and I’m being nice. To put things in perspective, Miami is 5-10 at home this season. Last year, they were 32-9 and two years prior 37-4 at American Airlines Arena.”
The Cavs are 0-3 ATS this season on the road off a home win, while posting a 2-5 ATS record as an away favorite. Anderson Varejao is done for the season after tearing his Achilles’ tendon, as Cleveland looks to snap a 10-game losing streak to Miami dating back to 2012.
Lakers at Bulls – 8:00 PM EST
Chicago returns home looking for its 20th win of the season, as the Bulls try to maintain their hold atop the Central Division. Tom Thibodeau’s club is riding a four-game winning streak, coming off a solid back-to-back sweep of the Raptors and Wizards. The 99-91 victory at Washington on Tuesday had extra meaning for the Bulls, who were eliminated in the opening round by the Wizards this past spring.
The Lakers upset the Warriors as 10-point home underdogs on Tuesday without Kobe Bryant, 115-105 to end a three-game skid. Los Angeles spread out the scoring as Bryant rested, as seven players put up double-figures, while the team shot 52% from the floor. In each of the past four games, Byron Scott’s squad has cashed the ‘over,’ while the Lakers have won each their last three openers to start a road trip of at least two games, including victories at Atlanta and San Antonio of 8 ½ points or higher.
David believes that the total is a strong look in the Windy City, “While I would lean to Chicago as the side, I believe there is more value with the total. This year’s Bulls squad has improved immensely on offense, averaging 103 PPG compared to 93 PPG. The scoring has helped the ‘over’ go 15-12, which includes a 9-2 mark at the United Center. The Lakers are the worst defensive team (109 PPG) in the league and they still like to play fast, ranked second in attempts per game (87.1). As long as L.A. doesn’t go ice cold from the floor, both teams should easily see triple digits in this game.”
The Bulls have struggled as a home favorite of 9 ½ points or more this season, covering just twice in six opportunities. The Lakers have dropped five of the past six meetings in the series, while losing three straight visits to the United Center. Chicago opened up as 8 ½-point favorites when this line came out in August, as the adjustment for Thursday from the oddsmakers was just two points.
Warriors at Clippers – 10:30 PM EST
Golden State and Los Angeles played a heated first round playoff series this past spring as the Clippers eliminated the Warriors in seven games. This season, the Warriors picked up a modicum of revenge with a 121-104 blowout of the Clippers at Oracle Arena in November as five-point favorites. The home team has won eight of the past 10 meetings between these Pacific Division rivals, while Golden State has covered five of the previous seven matchups when listed as an underdogs.
The Clippers should be happy to return home following back-to-back losses to the Spurs and Hawks, as Los Angeles has dropped four consecutive road contests. Doc Rivers’ team has won seven straight games at Staples Center since the start of December, but only victory came against a squad that is currently above .500 (Phoenix). Since covering five consecutive games in late November and early December, the Clips have stumbled to a 2-8 ATS record the past 10 games.
The Warriors suffered just their fourth loss in 27 games this season in Tuesday’s 115-105 setback to the Lakers. Since winning 10 straight road games, Golden State has lost each of its past two contests away from Oracle Arena, while owning a 2-2 ATS record in the road underdog role. Steve Kerr’s club has won four of six away games against teams owning .500 records or better, including victories at Portland, Houston, and Dallas.
David mentions that backing the road team may be the way to go, “I do like the revenge angle for L.A. because this series has become very hostile at times. However, if your handicapping style relies heavily on current form, then you shouldn’t be backing the Clippers in this spot. Los Angeles is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games and the defense has been a mess during this stretch. In the seven games they failed to cover, they gave up 100-plus in every game. It’s very possible they step up on the holiday but I would be very hesitant.”
