Thursday's Top Action
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-6) at DETROIT LIONS (3-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Even, Total: 45.5
The Eagles swoop into the Motor City Thursday hoping to feast on the Lions in a Thanksgiving matchup.
Philadelphia (4-6 SU and ATS) is still in the hunt for a playoff spot in the chaotic NFC East, where it remains one game out of first place despite having lost three out of its past four games. Meanwhile, Detroit (3-7 SU and ATS) has enjoyed relative success since its Week 9 bye, upsetting the Packers and knocking off the Raiders to earn its only pair of regulation wins on the season.
The Eagles have had the upper hand over the Lions in recent history, beating them 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS since 1992. Their last meeting occurred in 2013, in a game that saw Philly rally from a 14-6, fourth-quarter deficit to win 34-20. Both teams enjoy favorable trends to cover the spread in this week's game. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS coming off a blowout loss (21+ points) since 1992, while road teams are 71-32 in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the past 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 21+ points total in their past three games.
Meanwhile, underdogs like Detroit are 169-107 ATS since 1983 in games involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after allowing 14 points or fewer in their previous game, and the Lions' opponent is 3-13 ATS in road games versus poor teams (outscored by 6+ PPG on the season) in the second half of the season since 1992.
Philadelphia is likely to once again start QB Mark Sanchez in place of top QB Sam Bradford (concussion), who is doubtful to play Thursday. The team may be missing a few other offensive pieces as well, as RB Ryan Mathews (concussion) and TE Zach Ertz (concussion) are both listed as questionable. The Lions are relatively healthy at this point in the season, though DT Gabe Wright (ankle) is questionable to play on Thursday.
Philadelphia has been pedestrian on both sides of the ball this season, a stat reflected in its middle-of-the-road 4-6 record. The team's offense has scored an average of 22.9 PPG (15th in NFL), while totaling 347.4 YPG (8th in league) and coughing up 20 turnovers (5th-worst in league). QB Mark Sanchez began hot in his first start of the season last week, connecting with WR Josh Huff for a 39-yard TD in the first four minutes. He quickly came back down to earth though, ending the day 26-of-41 for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. Sanchez is 1-0 in his career against Detroit, throwing for 323 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT with the Jets.
RB DeMarco Murray, the team's leading rusher, ran 13 times for 64 yards, adding four catches for 27 yards and also lost a fumble. The Eagles will be hoping for the return of RB Ryan Mathews, who has gained 5.7 yards per carry compared to Murray's 3.7, and has scored in four of his past five games. Philadelphia's defense has allowed as many points as its offense scores, 22.9 PPG (16th in the NFL), though the squad has struggled recently, surrendering 30.7 PPG in the past three games.
Tampa Bay was able to dominate the defense last week, scoring 45 points and allowing QB Jameis Winston to throw five touchdowns and RB Doug Martin to gain 235 yards on the ground. To the Eagles' credit, they have excelled at creating turnovers with 21 (3rd in league), and have limited opposing runners to score just three touchdowns all season (2nd in NFL).
Detroit has similarly been balanced on both sides of the ball this season -- unfortunately, the team is toward the bottom of the league in both instances. The Lions' offense is the fourth-lowest scoring bunch in the league, averaging 18.5 PPG and 336.5 YPG (25th in NFL), while turning the ball over the second-most of any team, a cringe-worthy 21 times. The team has had to lean heavily on QB Matthew Stafford, who has thrown the football 412 times (4th-most in league), scoring 16 TD (15th in league) but also giving up 13 interceptions (29th in NFL) along the way. Stafford is 1-1 in his career against the Eagles, averaging an underwhelming 45.7% completion rate, 229.5 YPG, and managing just one touchdown in two games.
WR Calvin Johnson has looked more human than his nickname "Megatron" this season, leading the team in receptions and yards, but scoring just three times and averaging the lowest yards per reception of his career at 14.0 yards per catch. Meanwhile, Detroit's running corps is the worst in the league. RBs Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell and Theo Riddick are averaging the fewest combined rushing attempts (20.7) and yards per game (71.1), scoring just three times (28th in NFL) and averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per attempt (30th in NFL).
The Lions' defense hasn't fared much better, giving opponents 27.4 PPG (4th-worst in league) and proving particularly susceptible to the run, giving up a league-worst 15 touchdowns on the ground.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (10-0) at DALLAS COWBOYS (3-7)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Carolina -1, Total: 46
The Cowboys are hoping for a Thanksgiving miracle as they host the undefeated Panthers on Thursday afternoon.
Carolina (10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS) continued its domination tour last week, dismantling Washington 44-16 in a game that saw QB Cam Newton toss five touchdowns to five different receivers. Struggling Dallas (3-7 SU and ATS) hopes its troubles are over now that QB Tony Romo has returned, with the team winning their first game since Week 2 last Sunday. The Cowboys have held the advantage over the Panthers all-time, going 9-3 SU and 6-5 ATS. Newton and Romo last met in 2012, with Dallas fending off a Carolina comeback in eking out a 19-14 victory.
Betting trends largely favor the Panthers this week, as they are 16-2 ATS all-time after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better, and under head coach Ron Rivera the squad is 15-4 ATS when playing against a bad team (25% to 40% win pct.). Bettors looking to wager on the Cowboys can find a few positive trends to hang their hats on. The team is 15-5 ATS against opponents who force 2.5+ turnovers per game in the second half of the season since 1992, and 17-6 ATS at home after having lost three of the past four games in the same time period.
Carolina is monitoring several injuries going into this week's game, including DE Charles Johnson (hamstring), G Andrew Norwell (hamstring), WR Philly Brown (shoulder), and CB Charles Tillman (knee), who are all listed as questionable. Dallas is finally starting to get healthy now that Romo and WR Dez Bryant have returned from protracted injuries. Nevertheless, they may be without WR Brice Butler (hamstring), CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring) and DE Ryan Russell (abdominal), who are questionable to play Thursday.
As one would expect of a 10-0 team, Carolina has excelled on both sides of the ball this season. Captained by QB Cam Newton, the team's offense has scored 29.9 PPG (3rd in NFL) and generated 354.2 total YPG (15th in league). Newton doesn't attempt many passes (30.6 attempts per game, 27th in NFL), but connects when it counts, recording 20 passing TD (6th in league). Led by RB Jonathan Stewart, and supplemented by Newton and FB Mike Tolbert, the Panthers run more than any other team (34.2 attempts per game), tallying 140 YPG on the ground and 11 rushing touchdowns (both good for 5th-best in NFL).
With last year's rookie phenom WR Kelvin Benjamin out all this season on the IR, Newton has managed to excel with a receiving corps patched together from a star tight end (Greg Olsen), scrappy newcomers (WRs Philly Brown and Devin Funchess), and tossed-away veterans (WRs Ted Ginn, and Jerricho Cotchery). The team has been hitting its stride in recent weeks, averaging 36.0 PPG and 366 YPG in its past three games. The Panthers' defense has been fierce as well, giving up just 19.1 PPG (5th in league) and 322.8 total YPG (4th in NFL), while leading the league in forced turnovers at 2.5 per game.
In the wake of injuries to its star skill players, the Dallas offense has struggled on the season, averaging only 19.0 PPG (27th in league) and 343.0 total YPG (20th in NFL). However, with No. 1 QB Tony Romo under center, the team averages a more respectable 23.7 PPG and 393.7 YPG. He was understandably a bit rusty in his first game back last week against the Dolphins, but still managed to secure the win while completing 18-of-28 passes for 227 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Cowboys fans will hope Romo's good luck streak against the Panthers continues on Thursday, as he's 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in his career in this matchup, averaging a 68% completion rate for 252 YPG and tallying three touchdowns against his opponent.
Among the few relative bright spots for the Dallas offense has been veteran RB Darren McFadden, who has emerged at front of the depleted Cowboys' running corps to produce three 100+ yard games in his past five contests, though he's managed only a single rushing touchdown during the same period. Not surprisingly, the most reliable component of the team has been 33-year-old TE Jason Witten, who leads the squad in targets, receptions, and yards.
Defensively, Dallas is giving up only 22.8 PPG and 336 total YPG this season, and those numbers jump to 28.2 PPG and 373 total YPG at home. Despite being on the field for an average time of just 26:16 per game, the unit is still giving up 104 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 231 passing YPG on 7.0 YPA and 64% completions. The Cowboys defense didn't force a single turnover in three October games, but has four takeaways over the past four contests, and will need to create some mistakes to knock off the top team in the NFC.
CHICAGO BEARS (4-6) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-3)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -9, Total: 47
The latest chapter in the NFL’s oldest rivalry will play out on Thanksgiving night when the Bears and Packers square off at Lambeau Field.
Chicago (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) saw its two-game win streak end at the hands of the Broncos on Sunday in a 17-15 affair, though the team did cover for the sixth time in seven games after starting the season 0-3 ATS. The Packers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) got back in the SU and ATS win columns following three-game losing skids in both categories with a 30-13 road victory over the Vikings, re-claiming first place in the NFC North by virtue of the head-to-head win. The long-time foes will square off for the 192nd time, with Chicago holding the narrowest of advantages, 93-92-6. The Packers won their encounter 31-23 back in Week 1 despite allowing a season-high 189 rushing yards (also the Bears’ offensive season high).
Betting trends for the game favor the Packers, who are 35-13 SU and 31-16-1 ATS against the Bears since 1992, including 4-1 SU & ATS since the start of the 2013 season. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS following a road win since the start of last season, and 9-2 ATS following any road game in this same timeframe. Also, head coach Mike McCarthy is 40-19 ATS against NFC North opponents as head coach of the Packers, including 8-1 ATS in home games against bad teams (25% to 40% win pct.) in the second half of the season.
Chicago, which is 9-0 ATS since 1992 off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, comes in dealing with injuries to key offensive players, including RB Matt Forte (knee), WR Alshon Jeffrey (groin), WR Eddie Royal (knee) and RB Ka’Deem Carey (concussion), all of whom are questionable, as is S Antrel Rolle (ankle). Green Bay comes in with a near clean sheet, with the exception of WR Ty Montgomery (ankle), who is listed as questionable.
Chicago's offense hasn't been great this season with only 21.4 PPG but has gained a respectable 352 total YPG. The team is nearly 50/50 in play selection with the Bears throwing 34 times per game for 240 YPG on 7.0 YPA while running for 112 YPG on 3.9 YPC. But Chicago's ground attack stalled last week with a season-low 86 rushing yards while allowing a season-high 170 rushing yards to the Broncos. While Veteran QB Jay Cutler has had his moments this season with 257 passing YPG, 13 TD and 8 INT, he is just 1-12 SU (2-11 ATS) against the Packers in his career with 15 touchdowns and 23 picks.
The Bears defense has produced mixed results so far this season, allowing only 217.2 YPG through the air (4th in NFL), but surrendering 123.7 YPG on the ground (25th in NFL). On a per-carry basis, Chicago is allowing 4.6 YPC (T-28th in NFL), which good news for Green Bay’s run game.
Packers ball carriers are currently averaging a pedestrian 110 rushing YPG (16th in NFL) on 4.2 YPC (12th in league), but racked up 124 yards last Sunday, which marked the first triple-digit rushing output since 133 yards versus San Diego on Oct. 18. Star QB Aaron Rodgers has failed to re-capture his MVP-winning form from last year, entering Thanksgiving averaging 232.3 passing YPG (22nd in the league), and on pace to set a new career low for passing YPA, which currently stands at 7.15 (20th in the league), more than one yard per attempt less than his 2014 and 2013 performances. But Green Bay is 13-3 SU and ATS against the Bears with Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown for 243 YPG, 34 TD and only 10 INT in these 16 meetings.
The Packers have a bend-but-don't-break defense that gives up gobs of yardage (369 total YPG), but limits opponents to 19.8 PPG. The run-stop unit is allowing 114 YPG on 4.3 YPA while the passing defense gives up 255 YPG on 7.0 YPA.
