Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
October 29, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Thursday, October 29, 2020
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Belmont Park – Second race (Post Time: 1:47 ET
12-Another Shot (8-1)
Here’s a wide-open turf sprint for state-bred juveniles that is begging to be won by a price horse. At 8-1 on the morning line, this K. Breen-trained colt qualifies. Sixth of nine in an off-the-turf affair at Saratoga in August, the son of Palace Malice seems sur e to improve with that bit of experience behind him, today’s extra distance, and the switch in surface. The barn has strong stats (24%) with second-timers and its “go-to” rider J. Lezcano picks up the mount, so in a race full of question marks he’s probably worth a bit of a gamble.
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Churchill Downs – Sixth race (Post Time: 3:36 ET
4 – Guided Missile (6-1)
Scored at first asking despite a less than ideal trip and appearing green through the stretch so with that race behind him the son of Tapit has every right to produce a significant forward move while moving up to the first-level allowance ranks and stretching out to two-turns. The promising 3-year-old colt moves to the W. Calhoun barn, has worked sharply since his debut victory and projects to be the controlling speed, assuming his connections want him to be. At 6-1 on the morning line he offers good value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
October 29, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Thursday, October 29, 2020
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Belmont Park – Second race (Post Time: 1:47 ET
12-Another Shot (8-1)
Here’s a wide-open turf sprint for state-bred juveniles that is begging to be won by a price horse. At 8-1 on the morning line, this K. Breen-trained colt qualifies. Sixth of nine in an off-the-turf affair at Saratoga in August, the son of Palace Malice seems sur e to improve with that bit of experience behind him, today’s extra distance, and the switch in surface. The barn has strong stats (24%) with second-timers and its “go-to” rider J. Lezcano picks up the mount, so in a race full of question marks he’s probably worth a bit of a gamble.
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Churchill Downs – Sixth race (Post Time: 3:36 ET
4 – Guided Missile (6-1)
Scored at first asking despite a less than ideal trip and appearing green through the stretch so with that race behind him the son of Tapit has every right to produce a significant forward move while moving up to the first-level allowance ranks and stretching out to two-turns. The promising 3-year-old colt moves to the W. Calhoun barn, has worked sharply since his debut victory and projects to be the controlling speed, assuming his connections want him to be. At 6-1 on the morning line he offers good value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
103S ALABAMA -104 GA SOUTHERN
S ALABAMA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs above avg teams (51-60%) since 1992.
157COLORADO ST -158 FRESNO ST
FRESNO ST is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
S ALABAMA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs above avg teams (51-60%) since 1992.
157COLORADO ST -158 FRESNO ST
FRESNO ST is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Thursday, October 29
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S ALABAMA (3 - 2) at GA SOUTHERN (3 - 2) - 10/29/2020, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GA SOUTHERN is 1-1 against the spread versus S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
GA SOUTHERN is 2-0 straight up against S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (0 - 0) at FRESNO ST (0 - 1) - 10/29/2020, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 1-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Thursday, October 29
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S ALABAMA (3 - 2) at GA SOUTHERN (3 - 2) - 10/29/2020, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GA SOUTHERN is 1-1 against the spread versus S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
GA SOUTHERN is 2-0 straight up against S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (0 - 0) at FRESNO ST (0 - 1) - 10/29/2020, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 1-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NCAAF
Week 9
Trend Report
Thursday, October 29
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Alabama's last 7 games on the road
South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia Southern's last 7 games
Colorado State @ Fresno State
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado State's last 8 games
Colorado State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
Week 9
Trend Report
Thursday, October 29
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern
South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Alabama's last 7 games on the road
South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Alabama
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Georgia Southern's last 7 games
Colorado State @ Fresno State
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado State's last 8 games
Colorado State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Fresno State
Fresno State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fresno State's last 5 games at home
Fresno State is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
NCAAF
Week 9
Thursday’s games
South Alabama (3-2) @ Georgia Southern (3-2)
— South Alabama scored 30+ points in its wins, 24-10 in losses.
— Jaguars won their only road games, 32-21 (+13) at Southern Miss.
— USA has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Jaguars have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— South Alabama is playing two QB’s.
— Jaguars are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Georgia Southern split its four I-A games; they beat two stiffs at home.
— Eagles were held to 18-14 points in their two losses.
— Georgia Southern has 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Eagles have 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Georgia Southern has a senior QB with 39 career starts.
— Eagles are 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Georgia Southern won last six series games (5-1 ATS)
— South Alabama lost its last three visits here, by an average of 52-10.
Colorado State (0-0) @ Fresno State (0-1)
— This is the season opener for Colorado State.
— Colorado State has 7 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Colorado State has a senior QB with 10 starts.
— Rams are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
— Fresno allowed 323 rushing yards in LW’s 34-19 home loss to Hawai’i.
— Fresno has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Bulldogs have 64 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Fresno has a junior QB who used to be a backup at Washington; LW was his first college start.
— Fresno is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.
— Colorado State won six of last seven series games.
— Underdogs covered four of last six series games.
— Rams won last three visits to Fresno, by 10-3-12 points.
Week 9
Thursday’s games
South Alabama (3-2) @ Georgia Southern (3-2)
— South Alabama scored 30+ points in its wins, 24-10 in losses.
— Jaguars won their only road games, 32-21 (+13) at Southern Miss.
— USA has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Jaguars have 66 returning starts on the offensive line.
— South Alabama is playing two QB’s.
— Jaguars are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Georgia Southern split its four I-A games; they beat two stiffs at home.
— Eagles were held to 18-14 points in their two losses.
— Georgia Southern has 8 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Eagles have 90 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Georgia Southern has a senior QB with 39 career starts.
— Eagles are 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.
— Georgia Southern won last six series games (5-1 ATS)
— South Alabama lost its last three visits here, by an average of 52-10.
Colorado State (0-0) @ Fresno State (0-1)
— This is the season opener for Colorado State.
— Colorado State has 7 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Colorado State has a senior QB with 10 starts.
— Rams are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.
— Fresno allowed 323 rushing yards in LW’s 34-19 home loss to Hawai’i.
— Fresno has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Bulldogs have 64 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Fresno has a junior QB who used to be a backup at Washington; LW was his first college start.
— Fresno is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.
— Colorado State won six of last seven series games.
— Underdogs covered four of last six series games.
— Rams won last three visits to Fresno, by 10-3-12 points.
Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall
Week 9 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, October 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Oct. 29
SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
After losing and failing to cover five straight vs. GSU, USA at least covered in LY’s close 20-17 loss.
Eagle margin of win was 32.4 pg in previous five series wins.
Jags on 10-3 spread uptick since mid 2019.
GSU only 2-5 last seven as Belt chalk.
Tech Edge: USA, based on recent trends.
COLORADO STATE at FRESNO STATE (CBSSN, 10:00 p.m.)
Addazio was 14-4-1 vs. line as dog the past three years at BC, and Rams won for Bobo as dog at Fresno LY.
Bulldogs tailed off to 1-4-1 vs. line at home in Tedford final season a year ago and began 2020 with home loss to Hawaii in DeBoer debut.
Tech Edge: CSU, especially if dog, based on Addazio trends.
Bruce Marshall
Week 9 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, October 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Oct. 29
SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
After losing and failing to cover five straight vs. GSU, USA at least covered in LY’s close 20-17 loss.
Eagle margin of win was 32.4 pg in previous five series wins.
Jags on 10-3 spread uptick since mid 2019.
GSU only 2-5 last seven as Belt chalk.
Tech Edge: USA, based on recent trends.
COLORADO STATE at FRESNO STATE (CBSSN, 10:00 p.m.)
Addazio was 14-4-1 vs. line as dog the past three years at BC, and Rams won for Bobo as dog at Fresno LY.
Bulldogs tailed off to 1-4-1 vs. line at home in Tedford final season a year ago and began 2020 with home loss to Hawaii in DeBoer debut.
Tech Edge: CSU, especially if dog, based on Addazio trends.
Colorado State vs. Fresno State Odds
Joe Nelson
The Mountain West opened up its season last week and the conference will be in the spotlight Thursday night.
Colorado State visits Fresno State to start off the next college football weekend in a pairing of teams with new head coaches this season.
Here is a look at this week’s Thursday late night game between the Rams and Bulldogs.
BETTING RESOURCES
Week 9 Matchup: Mountain West Conference
Venue: Bulldog Stadium
Location: Fresno, California
Date: Thursday, October 29, 2020
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Colorado State-Fresno State Betting Odds
Spread: Colorado State -1.5
Money-Line: Colorado State -125 Fresno State +105
Total: 59
Fresno State will be looking to bounce back on Thursday after losing to Hawaii 34-19 in its opener last week. (AP)
How to Handicap Colorado State-Fresno State
The Bulldogs were West division champions in 2017 and 2018 and won the Mountain West title in 2018. Last season the team slipped to 4-8 after going a combined 22-6 the prior two seasons.
Last Saturday, Fresno State hosted Hawai’i to open the season and wound up with a 34-19 defeat. It was a competitive game much of the way with Hawai’i up 17-13 at halftime and Fresno State within eight twice in the second half before a late Warriors touchdown put the game away.
Fresno State lost the yardage battle 552-409 and the turnover battle 4-1. It was the first game for Hawai’i under Todd Graham and the Warriors surprised with 53 rushing attempts for 323 yards on the ground. Playing from behind much of the way, Fresno State leaned on Jake Haener in the passing game, connecting for some big plays with 289 yards on only 17 completions but with three interceptions.
Colorado State didn’t play last week as the opener with New Mexico was called off with Covid-19 issues on New Mexico’s side. There are no plans to reschedule that game and the Rams will now open on the road a week later coming off a 4-8 2019 season. After a 1-5 start the Rams did win three games in a row in the conference season last year before losing the final three games in mostly competitive results.
Last season Colorado State finished only -14 in MWC scoring differential despite a 3-5 record, likewise Fresno State finished 2-6 while only -17 in scoring as both teams have some positive indicators for improvement in 2020.
Coaching Changes
Colorado State hired longtime Georgia assistant Mike Bobo ahead of the 2015 season and after three straight 7-5 regular seasons concluding with bowl losses the Rams turned in back-to-back losing seasons in 2018 and 2019.
Bobo missed some time ahead of the 2019 season with health issues and was ultimately fired after the Rams finished 4-8 last season. He completed five years at 28-35 including 20-20 in conference play as the Rams didn’t approach the success Jim McElwain had in 2013 and 2014.
The Rams wound up hiring Steve Addazio to take over the program last winter, shortly after Addazio was somewhat surprisingly released by Boston College. With geographical challenges in the ACC Addazio went 44-44 over seven seasons with the Eagles and despite a 22-34 overall ACC mark, his teams were at least 4-4 five times and made bowl games six of his seven seasons.
He was unemployed just over a week even though his ties and coaching history has been exclusively on the east coast. Long-time assistant Chuck Heater is his defensive coordinator with Heater an assistant at Colorado State for two seasons and at Colorado for six seasons in the 1990s, while most recently an assistant at Florida last season. Joey Lynch is the new offensive coordinator after climbing the ranks as an assistant at Ball State the past decade.
Fresno State also is in its first season with a new head coach as Jeff Tedford’s second stint at Fresno State ended after three seasons as he stepped down citing health reasons. Tedford revived the program with an incredible turnaround from inheriting a team that went 1-11 in 2016 to 10-4 in 2017. His offensive coordinator in 2017 and 2018 was Kalen DeBoer, who was brought back to Fresno with the opening last winter.
DeBoer was a head coach at NAIA Sioux Falls from 2005-2009, going 67-3 with three NAIA Championships. He jumped up as a coordinator at FCS Southern Illinois and then to FBS at Eastern Michigan before joining Tedford in Fresno. Last season he was lured away to be the OC and QB Coach at Indiana where the Hoosiers went 8-5 and were the second most productive offense in the Big Ten averaging 444 yards per game.
Betting Analysis – Rams
2019: 4-8 S/U, 6-6 ATS, 4/8 O/U
The first game of the season can offer an opportunity for mistakes but it also can be an advantage, particularly for a team in a coaching change.
There isn’t film on Colorado State right now under Addazio as the Rams weren’t able to play last week in the scheduled opener vs. New Mexico, a more favorable matchup where Addazio’s team may have been able to work out some kinks. Addazio was 6-1 S/U and 3-3-1 ATS in season openers at Boston College including a notable upset hosting Virginia Tech to open last season.
Last season Boston College rushed for nearly 3,300 yards on 5.0 yards per carry, rushing more than twice as often as they passed. Addazio teams have always preferred to run but a quarterback injury plus having NFL draft pick A.J. Dillon in the backfield likely led to a greater tilt to the ground in 2019.
One can assume Patrick O’Brien will be starting at quarterback as the incumbent that posted adequate numbers last season after now South Carolina quarterback Collin Hill was injured. Addazio hasn’t made that official however as Temple transfer Todd Centeio joined the team this summer. Last year’s top rusher Mavin Kinsey has graduated but senior Marcus McElroy returns and should be in line to lead the running game.
Colorado State and Boston College both struggled with run defense last season ranking 102nd and 93rd respectively on a per carry basis as that is an area where Fresno State was stronger last season. Addazio’s Boston College defense allowed 6.3 yards per play last season for 107th nationally though having to play both Clemson and Notre Dame on the road contributed heavily to those results.
Betting Analysis - Bulldogs
2019: 4-8 S/U, 4-7-1 ATS, 8/4 O/U
2020: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS, 0/1 O/U
Expectations are high for the Fresno State offense given how successful the team was with DeBoer in 2017 and 2018 and the big numbers that he produced in a breakthrough season for Indiana last year. The start of last week’s game couldn’t have gone better as Hawai’i fumbled on the opening kickoff and five plays later the Bulldogs reached the end zone, including Haener delivering a big play on 3rd-and-13 to avoid having to force a long field goal try. Fresno State had turnovers on the next two possessions before uneven results the rest of the way as Hawai’i eventually pulled away.
Ronnie Rivers led Fresno State with 79 rushing yards but the Bulldogs gained just 3.2 yards per rush and were outrushed 323-120 by Hawai’i. Haener has decent mobility and rushed 13 times last week as the Washington transfer took his first snaps since a few token appearances for the Huskies in 2018. Marcus McMaryion had terrific results for Fresno State in 2017 and 2018 before the production slipped last season under senior Jorge Reyna.
Rivers was the team’s leading rusher in 2019 with 899 yards while averaging 5.1 yards per carry and reaching the end zone 13 times. Rivers was also the team’s second leading receiver last season, only four catches behind top receiver Zane Pope, who didn’t play last week and might be out for a few more weeks to take a toll on the passing game options for the Bulldogs.
Fresno State was the top defensive scoring team by a wide margin in the MWC in both 2017 and 2018 before allowing 255 points in 2019, 168 more points than the season before. The defensive coordinator this season is William Inge who followed DeBoer after serving as the special teams coordinator and a linebackers coach at Indiana for the past seven seasons.
Head-to-Head
Colorado State leads this series 10-5 with a 9-6 ATS mark since 1992.
Last year’s meeting was the first between these teams since 2016 and Colorado State has won six of the past seven with a 5-2 ATS mark going back to 2003.
Fresno State has lost three straight home meetings between these teams, last winning in Fresno in 2002.
These teams also met in bowl action in 2008 with a narrow New Mexico Bowl win for Colorado State.
Last Season: Colorado State (+13.5) 41 at Fresno State 31
These teams met in late October with Fresno State a nearly two-touchdown favorite at home.
Coming off a pair of division titles the Bulldogs were 3-3 but the losses included an eight-point loss at USC and a double-overtime loss to Minnesota.
Colorado State was just 2-5 at the time with several lopsided losses but they had two weeks in-between games following a win at New Mexico.
Colorado State jumped out to a 14-0 lead but Fresno State managed to tie the game early in the third quarter and went into the fourth quarter with a 28-24 lead. The game would be tied 31-31 a few minutes into the fourth before Colorado State seemed to blow its chance at the upset with an interception in the end zone.
The Rams defense got the ball right back with its own interception a few plays later however, handing the offense a short field. Colorado State cashed in with a touchdown and then after stopping Fresno State on downs they sealed the win with a late field goal to win 41-31. Colorado State posted a 500-388 yardage advantage with most of that edge coming in the passing game.
Notable Betting Trends
Colorado State Rams
-- Colorado State is on a 23-13 ATS run in road games since 2013 including a 3-2 ATS mark with two S/U wins last season.
-- At Boston College, Addazio was also 22-13-1 ATS on the road for remarkably similar numbers in those time frames.
-- Also under the head coach, BC was 4-2 ATS on the road last season with three S/U wins.
Fresno State Bulldogs
-- Fresno State is 14-11 S/U and 14-9-1 ATS at home since 2016 even while riding a current 1-7-1 ATS run in home games going back to November 2018.
-- Fresno State had a 13-2 ATS run at home from 2016 through October 2018.
-- Fresno State hasn’t been a home underdog since being +3 early last season vs. Minnesota, a line that certainly looked out of place by season’s end, though the Bulldogs lost by only three in a wild finish in a double-overtime game.
Joe Nelson
The Mountain West opened up its season last week and the conference will be in the spotlight Thursday night.
Colorado State visits Fresno State to start off the next college football weekend in a pairing of teams with new head coaches this season.
Here is a look at this week’s Thursday late night game between the Rams and Bulldogs.
BETTING RESOURCES
Week 9 Matchup: Mountain West Conference
Venue: Bulldog Stadium
Location: Fresno, California
Date: Thursday, October 29, 2020
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Colorado State-Fresno State Betting Odds
Spread: Colorado State -1.5
Money-Line: Colorado State -125 Fresno State +105
Total: 59
Fresno State will be looking to bounce back on Thursday after losing to Hawaii 34-19 in its opener last week. (AP)
How to Handicap Colorado State-Fresno State
The Bulldogs were West division champions in 2017 and 2018 and won the Mountain West title in 2018. Last season the team slipped to 4-8 after going a combined 22-6 the prior two seasons.
Last Saturday, Fresno State hosted Hawai’i to open the season and wound up with a 34-19 defeat. It was a competitive game much of the way with Hawai’i up 17-13 at halftime and Fresno State within eight twice in the second half before a late Warriors touchdown put the game away.
Fresno State lost the yardage battle 552-409 and the turnover battle 4-1. It was the first game for Hawai’i under Todd Graham and the Warriors surprised with 53 rushing attempts for 323 yards on the ground. Playing from behind much of the way, Fresno State leaned on Jake Haener in the passing game, connecting for some big plays with 289 yards on only 17 completions but with three interceptions.
Colorado State didn’t play last week as the opener with New Mexico was called off with Covid-19 issues on New Mexico’s side. There are no plans to reschedule that game and the Rams will now open on the road a week later coming off a 4-8 2019 season. After a 1-5 start the Rams did win three games in a row in the conference season last year before losing the final three games in mostly competitive results.
Last season Colorado State finished only -14 in MWC scoring differential despite a 3-5 record, likewise Fresno State finished 2-6 while only -17 in scoring as both teams have some positive indicators for improvement in 2020.
Coaching Changes
Colorado State hired longtime Georgia assistant Mike Bobo ahead of the 2015 season and after three straight 7-5 regular seasons concluding with bowl losses the Rams turned in back-to-back losing seasons in 2018 and 2019.
Bobo missed some time ahead of the 2019 season with health issues and was ultimately fired after the Rams finished 4-8 last season. He completed five years at 28-35 including 20-20 in conference play as the Rams didn’t approach the success Jim McElwain had in 2013 and 2014.
The Rams wound up hiring Steve Addazio to take over the program last winter, shortly after Addazio was somewhat surprisingly released by Boston College. With geographical challenges in the ACC Addazio went 44-44 over seven seasons with the Eagles and despite a 22-34 overall ACC mark, his teams were at least 4-4 five times and made bowl games six of his seven seasons.
He was unemployed just over a week even though his ties and coaching history has been exclusively on the east coast. Long-time assistant Chuck Heater is his defensive coordinator with Heater an assistant at Colorado State for two seasons and at Colorado for six seasons in the 1990s, while most recently an assistant at Florida last season. Joey Lynch is the new offensive coordinator after climbing the ranks as an assistant at Ball State the past decade.
Fresno State also is in its first season with a new head coach as Jeff Tedford’s second stint at Fresno State ended after three seasons as he stepped down citing health reasons. Tedford revived the program with an incredible turnaround from inheriting a team that went 1-11 in 2016 to 10-4 in 2017. His offensive coordinator in 2017 and 2018 was Kalen DeBoer, who was brought back to Fresno with the opening last winter.
DeBoer was a head coach at NAIA Sioux Falls from 2005-2009, going 67-3 with three NAIA Championships. He jumped up as a coordinator at FCS Southern Illinois and then to FBS at Eastern Michigan before joining Tedford in Fresno. Last season he was lured away to be the OC and QB Coach at Indiana where the Hoosiers went 8-5 and were the second most productive offense in the Big Ten averaging 444 yards per game.
Betting Analysis – Rams
2019: 4-8 S/U, 6-6 ATS, 4/8 O/U
The first game of the season can offer an opportunity for mistakes but it also can be an advantage, particularly for a team in a coaching change.
There isn’t film on Colorado State right now under Addazio as the Rams weren’t able to play last week in the scheduled opener vs. New Mexico, a more favorable matchup where Addazio’s team may have been able to work out some kinks. Addazio was 6-1 S/U and 3-3-1 ATS in season openers at Boston College including a notable upset hosting Virginia Tech to open last season.
Last season Boston College rushed for nearly 3,300 yards on 5.0 yards per carry, rushing more than twice as often as they passed. Addazio teams have always preferred to run but a quarterback injury plus having NFL draft pick A.J. Dillon in the backfield likely led to a greater tilt to the ground in 2019.
One can assume Patrick O’Brien will be starting at quarterback as the incumbent that posted adequate numbers last season after now South Carolina quarterback Collin Hill was injured. Addazio hasn’t made that official however as Temple transfer Todd Centeio joined the team this summer. Last year’s top rusher Mavin Kinsey has graduated but senior Marcus McElroy returns and should be in line to lead the running game.
Colorado State and Boston College both struggled with run defense last season ranking 102nd and 93rd respectively on a per carry basis as that is an area where Fresno State was stronger last season. Addazio’s Boston College defense allowed 6.3 yards per play last season for 107th nationally though having to play both Clemson and Notre Dame on the road contributed heavily to those results.
Betting Analysis - Bulldogs
2019: 4-8 S/U, 4-7-1 ATS, 8/4 O/U
2020: 0-1 S/U, 0-1 ATS, 0/1 O/U
Expectations are high for the Fresno State offense given how successful the team was with DeBoer in 2017 and 2018 and the big numbers that he produced in a breakthrough season for Indiana last year. The start of last week’s game couldn’t have gone better as Hawai’i fumbled on the opening kickoff and five plays later the Bulldogs reached the end zone, including Haener delivering a big play on 3rd-and-13 to avoid having to force a long field goal try. Fresno State had turnovers on the next two possessions before uneven results the rest of the way as Hawai’i eventually pulled away.
Ronnie Rivers led Fresno State with 79 rushing yards but the Bulldogs gained just 3.2 yards per rush and were outrushed 323-120 by Hawai’i. Haener has decent mobility and rushed 13 times last week as the Washington transfer took his first snaps since a few token appearances for the Huskies in 2018. Marcus McMaryion had terrific results for Fresno State in 2017 and 2018 before the production slipped last season under senior Jorge Reyna.
Rivers was the team’s leading rusher in 2019 with 899 yards while averaging 5.1 yards per carry and reaching the end zone 13 times. Rivers was also the team’s second leading receiver last season, only four catches behind top receiver Zane Pope, who didn’t play last week and might be out for a few more weeks to take a toll on the passing game options for the Bulldogs.
Fresno State was the top defensive scoring team by a wide margin in the MWC in both 2017 and 2018 before allowing 255 points in 2019, 168 more points than the season before. The defensive coordinator this season is William Inge who followed DeBoer after serving as the special teams coordinator and a linebackers coach at Indiana for the past seven seasons.
Head-to-Head
Colorado State leads this series 10-5 with a 9-6 ATS mark since 1992.
Last year’s meeting was the first between these teams since 2016 and Colorado State has won six of the past seven with a 5-2 ATS mark going back to 2003.
Fresno State has lost three straight home meetings between these teams, last winning in Fresno in 2002.
These teams also met in bowl action in 2008 with a narrow New Mexico Bowl win for Colorado State.
Last Season: Colorado State (+13.5) 41 at Fresno State 31
These teams met in late October with Fresno State a nearly two-touchdown favorite at home.
Coming off a pair of division titles the Bulldogs were 3-3 but the losses included an eight-point loss at USC and a double-overtime loss to Minnesota.
Colorado State was just 2-5 at the time with several lopsided losses but they had two weeks in-between games following a win at New Mexico.
Colorado State jumped out to a 14-0 lead but Fresno State managed to tie the game early in the third quarter and went into the fourth quarter with a 28-24 lead. The game would be tied 31-31 a few minutes into the fourth before Colorado State seemed to blow its chance at the upset with an interception in the end zone.
The Rams defense got the ball right back with its own interception a few plays later however, handing the offense a short field. Colorado State cashed in with a touchdown and then after stopping Fresno State on downs they sealed the win with a late field goal to win 41-31. Colorado State posted a 500-388 yardage advantage with most of that edge coming in the passing game.
Notable Betting Trends
Colorado State Rams
-- Colorado State is on a 23-13 ATS run in road games since 2013 including a 3-2 ATS mark with two S/U wins last season.
-- At Boston College, Addazio was also 22-13-1 ATS on the road for remarkably similar numbers in those time frames.
-- Also under the head coach, BC was 4-2 ATS on the road last season with three S/U wins.
Fresno State Bulldogs
-- Fresno State is 14-11 S/U and 14-9-1 ATS at home since 2016 even while riding a current 1-7-1 ATS run in home games going back to November 2018.
-- Fresno State had a 13-2 ATS run at home from 2016 through October 2018.
-- Fresno State hasn’t been a home underdog since being +3 early last season vs. Minnesota, a line that certainly looked out of place by season’s end, though the Bulldogs lost by only three in a wild finish in a double-overtime game.
Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6
The largest favorites to cover
Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.
The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.
If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.
With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.
The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.
Total Recall
The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.
The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.
In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.
The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.
In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.
So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 8
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cardinals (+3.5, ML +160) vs. Seahawks, 37-34 (OT)
49ers (+3, ML +140) at Patriots, 33-6
The largest favorites to cover
Chargers (-7.5) vs. Jaguars, 39-29
Chiefs (-7) at Broncos, 43-16
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Pittsburgh Steelers-Tennessee Titans battle certainly lived up to the hype. It was an AFC battle of unbeatens, and at first it looked like it was going to be a blowout, Pittsburgh style. The Steelers fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they held a 24-7 advantage at the break. They tacked on a 30-yard Chris Boswell field goal early in the third quarter to make it 27-7, but that's when the Steelers bogged down on offense and were unable to produce anymore offense.
The Titans made a furious comeback. WR A.J. Brown struck 50 seconds after Boswell's field goal for a 73-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 27-14. A field goal from Stephen Gostkowski with 2:55 left in the third from 51 yards out made it 27-17 after 45 minutes. Over (51) bettors looked to be in good shape heading into the fourth quarter, and Titans (+1, ML +105) side bettors were perking up as well. With 10:13 to go in regulation, Derrick Henry punched one in from 1-yard out to make it 27-24. However, much to the dismay of over bettors, there was no more scoring in the remainder of the game. Gostkowski misfired on a 45-yard field goal attempt with 19 seconds remaining, which would have inched the total over the line. In addition, moneyline bettors and side bettors for the Titans must've felt like they were losing twice. A trip to overtime could have potentially changed the day.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
The Detroit Lions-Atlanta Falcons game was a memorable one, and not many people would've expected that going in. It was 14-13 after three quarters, and while it was close, it wasn't terribly exciting. Then the fourth quarter took place.
If you're a Falcons (-1) side bettor, you're absolutely sick about this result. The Lions ended up winning 23-22 with a touchdown with zeroes on the clock, stunning Atlanta. However, that would be bad enough on a normal day under normal circumstances, but this situation should have never come to be.
With 1:04 remaining in regulation, the Falcons picked up a key first down, positioning themselves for a chip-shot, game-winning field goal, which would have made it 17-16. The Lions were out of timeouts, so they allowed Todd Gurley to score from 10 yards out. He remembered at the last second that he wasn't supposed to score, but couldn't stop his momentum and broke the plane. That made it 20-16, and they tacked on a two-point conversion to go ahead by six. However, if they would have just taken a knee, they could have run the clock down and left no time after the field goal. Matthew Stafford and company took advantage.
The Lions drove the field, tying it with no time left on a strike from Stafford to T.J. Hockenson from 11 yards out. All that was needed was a Matt Prater extra point, and he stuck it, giving Detroit a miraculous 23-22 victory.
Total Recall
The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the San Francisco 49ers-New England Patriots (44.5) game, followed by the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Football Team (45) contests.
The Patriots were never able to get untracked, as the 49ers fired out to a 23-3 lead at halftime, and they never looked back. Cam Newton was mistake-prone, and the New England offense could only produce two field goals. The 49ers picked up the 33-6 road victory, and 'over' bettors were a little disappointed with just three points in the fourth quarter.
In the Cowboys game, QB Andy Dalton was knocked out of the game due to a head/neck injury, so seventh-round draft pick QB Ben DiNucci was thrust into action. The Cowboys offense was dumbed down even more, and the second half resembled a preseason game for the Cowboys. Sadly, they're still only a half-game back of the first-place Philadelphia Eagles with a trip to Lincoln Financial Field on the slate for Week 8. Anyway, the Cowboys mustered just three points, and the Washington offense posted a total of 22 points, as the 'under' easily cashed.
The highest number on the board was Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (56) battle. This NFC West showdown didn't disappoint. The teams combined for 71 points, and only the third quarter saw fewer than 17 points. QBs Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray put on a show for the national audience, and the total was the first over of the season for the Cardinals against five under results. Arizona entered the day as the only NFL team without an over.
In the two primetime games, the over and under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams still pending.
So far this season the under is 13-9 (59.1%) across 22 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 8
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Falcons keep finding new ways to lose. They have blown fourth-quarter leads against the Cowboys, Bears and Lions, and could easily be 4-3 instead of 1-6. That's how close the margin of error is in the NFL. They get a rematch with the Panthers on Thursday. They fell 23-16 at home against Carolina, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites in a game which Julio Jones missed due to injury. The under has cashed in three of the past four outings for Atlanta, including that first meeting with the Panthers. Carolina enters the Week 7 game at New Orleans with a 4-0 under streak before hitting the over against the Saints. Carolina covered, too, and they're now 4-1 ATS in their past five overall.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Chiefs opened as 21-point favorites against the Jets in the 'Le'Veon Bell Bowl'. Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, we've had just five teams favored by 21 or more points. Last season the Miami Dolphins went to Dallas as 22-point underdogs, and the Cowboys covered the number, 31-6. However, since the start of the 2003 campaign, favorites of 20 or more points are 1-3 ATS. New York heads into this one just 1-5 ATS in the past six on the road, 1-5 ATS in the past six as an underdog and 5-17-1 ATS in the past 23 on a grass surface. On the flip side, the Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in the pat four against losing teams, and they're 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 at home. They're also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 as a favorite, too. The game has since moved down to 20.5, so early bettors are actually...gulp...trusting the Jets?
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The unbeaten Steelers put their unblemished record on the line against the Ravens in a battle for AFC North supremacy. Not only are the Steelers 6-0 SU, but they have covered four in a row, and five of six overall. Baltimore will be coming off a bye, so they'll be well rested and any injured players will have gotten over their early-season bumps and bruises. While the Ravens enter on a three-game winning streak, and they're 5-1 SU, Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS across the past four. The Ravens swept the Steelers last season, winning 26-23 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 5, while topping the Steelers 28-10 in the regular-season finale. Pittsburgh did win in Baltimore as recently as Nov. 4, 2018.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers travel to meet the Giants in a Monday Night battle. It's QB Tom Brady against his Super Bowl nemesis, but these G-Men aren't the same ones he faced for all the marbles. And he is wearing new threads now, too. Still, you know that will be the storyline, as the TV people need something to put lipstick on this pig. Tampa rolled over Las Vegas on the road, winning 45-20 as 3.5-point favorites, the second consecutive blowout win. Just last week they polished off the Green Bay Packers by a 38-10 score. The Bucs offense has posted 31, 28, 38, 19, 38 and 45 in the past six outings, as Brady now looks comfortable, and the Patriots are probably wishing him back right about now.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 8
Thursday, October 29
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ATLANTA (1 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 4) - 10/29/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Week 8
Thursday, October 29
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTA (1 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 4) - 10/29/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Week 8
Trend Report
Thursday, October 29
Atlanta @ Carolina
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Week 8
Trend Report
Thursday, October 29
Atlanta @ Carolina
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NFL
Week 8
Falcons (1-6) @ Carolina (3-4)
— Falcons are 0-5 ATS when they score less than 39 points.
— Atlanta covered two of its three road games.
— Falcons lost 30-16 at Green Bay in their only outdoor game so far.
— Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a road underdog.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.
— Carolina lost its last two games, 23-16/27-24.
— Panthers lost two of its three home games this year.
— Carolina is 10-14 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.
— Over is 4-3 in Panther games this season.
— Carolina (+2.5) upset the Falcons 23-16 in Atlanta, three weeks ago, their first win in last six series games.
— Falcons won 24-10/29-3 in their last two visits to Charlotte.
Week 8
Falcons (1-6) @ Carolina (3-4)
— Falcons are 0-5 ATS when they score less than 39 points.
— Atlanta covered two of its three road games.
— Falcons lost 30-16 at Green Bay in their only outdoor game so far.
— Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a road underdog.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.
— Carolina lost its last two games, 23-16/27-24.
— Panthers lost two of its three home games this year.
— Carolina is 10-14 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.
— Over is 4-3 in Panther games this season.
— Carolina (+2.5) upset the Falcons 23-16 in Atlanta, three weeks ago, their first win in last six series games.
— Falcons won 24-10/29-3 in their last two visits to Charlotte.
Week 8 Weather
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: The early forecast is not good for Thursday night in Charlotte. There could be a half-inch of rain during the day, more in the evening, and winds of 10-20 mph. By Monday night at The SuperBook, the total was down 2 points to 49.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: The early forecast is not good for Thursday night in Charlotte. There could be a half-inch of rain during the day, more in the evening, and winds of 10-20 mph. By Monday night at The SuperBook, the total was down 2 points to 49.
Falcons vs. Panthers Week 8 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt
We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.
It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.
The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.
I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.
So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?
Betting Resources
Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)
Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds
Spread: Carolina -3
Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130
Total: 50.5
2020 Betting Stats
Atlanta
Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)
Carolina
Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)
Handicapping the Total
Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.
Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.
Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.
Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.
However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.
The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.
Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.
Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year – ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' – and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.
Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.
Head-to-Head History
Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46
Handicapping the Side
The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.
That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.
But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.
There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.
The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.
It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.
Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.
So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.
Key Injuries
Atlanta
DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable
Carolina
RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable
Matt Blunt
We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.
It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.
The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.
I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.
So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?
Betting Resources
Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)
Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds
Spread: Carolina -3
Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130
Total: 50.5
2020 Betting Stats
Atlanta
Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)
Carolina
Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)
Handicapping the Total
Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.
Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.
Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.
Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.
However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.
The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.
Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.
Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year – ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' – and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.
Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.
Head-to-Head History
Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46
Handicapping the Side
The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.
That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.
But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.
There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.
The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.
It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.
Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.
So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.
Key Injuries
Atlanta
DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable
Carolina
RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable
NFL odds Week 8: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming off a bye as they host the division rival Steelers in Week 8. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Baltimore -6 and moved to -5.5 late Sunday evening.
NFL Week 7 is almost behind us, with NFL Week 8 odds on the betting board and already seeing movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens do battle in the AFC North, and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 8 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.
NFL Week 8 odds
These are the current NFL Week 8 odds, as of October 26.
Teams on bye: Washington Football Team, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals
Falcons at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under 49.5
Why the line moved
The bottom two in the NFC South get an early jump on Week 8 in the Thursday night game. Carolina opened -3 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement Sunday night.
Patrick Everson
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming off a bye as they host the division rival Steelers in Week 8. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Baltimore -6 and moved to -5.5 late Sunday evening.
NFL Week 7 is almost behind us, with NFL Week 8 odds on the betting board and already seeing movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens do battle in the AFC North, and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 8 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.
NFL Week 8 odds
These are the current NFL Week 8 odds, as of October 26.
Teams on bye: Washington Football Team, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals
Falcons at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under 49.5
Why the line moved
The bottom two in the NFC South get an early jump on Week 8 in the Thursday night game. Carolina opened -3 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement Sunday night.
NFL betting tips for Week 8: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan
The New England Patriots offense has scored a grand total of just 28 points overt their last three games and face another struggling offense in Buffalo in Week 8.
It’s hard to believe that Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games will be played on November 1.
This is the time of the year in which teams either go all in on the playoff push or start wondering if its worth it. And with the difficulties of the COVID-19-influenced season, I expect losing teams to start giving less of a crap even sooner into the schedule than normal.
The best NFL betting strategy through it all is getting the better of the numbers. These are our NFL betting tips for the Week 8 odds to bet now and bet later.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3): Bet Now
The Browns follow their thrilling win over the rival Bengals on Sunday as 3-point home chalk hosting the Raiders in Week 8. Books opened Cleveland as a field-goal favorite Sunday night and already some shops are dealing the half-point hook on the host.
The early money is buying into the Browns, who didn’t look that great in Sunday’s win against Cincinnati. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield had a bad start to the game but got right to the tune of five touchdown passes. That effort, which included a last-second touchdown, was enough to give the Browns their fifth win of the season.
Las Vegas got shelled by Tampa Bay at home in Week 7, allowing Tom Brady and the Buccos to post 45 points – 21 of those in the fourth quarter. The Silver and Black are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 33 points per game. That’s a touch worse than Cleveland's stop unit, which is serving up 31.6 points per outing.
If you’re banking on the Browns, get them now at the clean field goal and avoid that nasty half-point hook in a game that could go either way, considering the defenses involved.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3): Bet Later
Most books opened the Falcons as heavily-juiced 3-point underdogs Sunday evening, with the points coming with a -120 price tag for Thursday Night Football. The lookahead line for this NFC South showdown was at Panthers -2.5 last week and that looks like where it’s headed considering the early movement for the vig.
Carolina dropped its second straight game in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, but covered as a touchdown road dog. The Panthers have been competitive in just about every game this season, with an average margin of -0.9 through seven games. This offense, which has overperformed, could have superstar RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday too.
The Falcons “Falcon’d” themselves again versus Detroit in Week 7. Atlanta had the game in hand, but an ill-timed touchdown gave the ball back to the Lions in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter and… well, you know how these end for the Falcons.
I’m a little surprised Carolina -3 is discounted, but wait it out and see if -2.5 shows up between now and when McCaffrey’s status is updated.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Now
Yeesh, when the Bills aren’t scoring 30 points a game, they’re one bad football team. The high-flying Buffalo offense has been grounded the past three games, with the team combining for just 51 points over that span – compared to 123 points totaled in the first four games of the schedule.
The Patriots are also going through an offensive crisis, with a combined outpouring of 28 points in their last three contests – including scoring just six in Sunday’s home ass-waxing at the hands of the 49ers. It’s like New England’s offense hasn’t come out of quarantine since the team’s COVID-19 outbreak in early October.
The total for this AFC East grudge match hit the board at 46 points Sunday night and was a favorite play of sharp bettors right away, dropping to 45 in about an hour. These divisional foes are a collective 0-5-1 Over/Under in their last six contests and have gone Under in six of their last nine meetings overall. If you’re on that Under bandwagon, take the U45 now before it sinks even lower.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 49): Bet Later
Given the firepower on both sides and the way the 2020 season is bursting with points like a freshly whacked pinata, seeing this total below 50 is a bit surprising. That may be the early narrative as well, with some books tacking on a half-point move to 49.5.
Pittsburgh is unblemished and coming off a high-scoring thriller against Tennessee in which it scored 27 points but only three of those came in the second half. The Steelers offense stalled like a 1997 Toyota Tercel on a cold Pennsylvania morning and can thank the defense for keeping the Titans at bay down the stretch (and also thank Stephen Gostkowski for missing a game-tying 45-yarder in the final seconds).
The Ravens offense is chewing up the gains on the ground – big surprise – but Lamar Jackson has struggled to throw the football – big surprise (no really) – with a passer rating of 99.2 (compared to 113.3 last year). Baltimore is averaging almost 30 points per game but has played plenty of pedestrian defenses along the way.
These heated rivals have gone Over in their last two meetings, but those totals were almost laughable at 44 and 38 points (HA!). Before those results, the Steelers and Ravens played below the total in six of their previous eight encounters. If you like another Under, hold your horses and wait to see how high this Week 8 O/U goes.
Jason Logan
The New England Patriots offense has scored a grand total of just 28 points overt their last three games and face another struggling offense in Buffalo in Week 8.
It’s hard to believe that Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games will be played on November 1.
This is the time of the year in which teams either go all in on the playoff push or start wondering if its worth it. And with the difficulties of the COVID-19-influenced season, I expect losing teams to start giving less of a crap even sooner into the schedule than normal.
The best NFL betting strategy through it all is getting the better of the numbers. These are our NFL betting tips for the Week 8 odds to bet now and bet later.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3): Bet Now
The Browns follow their thrilling win over the rival Bengals on Sunday as 3-point home chalk hosting the Raiders in Week 8. Books opened Cleveland as a field-goal favorite Sunday night and already some shops are dealing the half-point hook on the host.
The early money is buying into the Browns, who didn’t look that great in Sunday’s win against Cincinnati. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield had a bad start to the game but got right to the tune of five touchdown passes. That effort, which included a last-second touchdown, was enough to give the Browns their fifth win of the season.
Las Vegas got shelled by Tampa Bay at home in Week 7, allowing Tom Brady and the Buccos to post 45 points – 21 of those in the fourth quarter. The Silver and Black are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 33 points per game. That’s a touch worse than Cleveland's stop unit, which is serving up 31.6 points per outing.
If you’re banking on the Browns, get them now at the clean field goal and avoid that nasty half-point hook in a game that could go either way, considering the defenses involved.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3): Bet Later
Most books opened the Falcons as heavily-juiced 3-point underdogs Sunday evening, with the points coming with a -120 price tag for Thursday Night Football. The lookahead line for this NFC South showdown was at Panthers -2.5 last week and that looks like where it’s headed considering the early movement for the vig.
Carolina dropped its second straight game in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, but covered as a touchdown road dog. The Panthers have been competitive in just about every game this season, with an average margin of -0.9 through seven games. This offense, which has overperformed, could have superstar RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday too.
The Falcons “Falcon’d” themselves again versus Detroit in Week 7. Atlanta had the game in hand, but an ill-timed touchdown gave the ball back to the Lions in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter and… well, you know how these end for the Falcons.
I’m a little surprised Carolina -3 is discounted, but wait it out and see if -2.5 shows up between now and when McCaffrey’s status is updated.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Now
Yeesh, when the Bills aren’t scoring 30 points a game, they’re one bad football team. The high-flying Buffalo offense has been grounded the past three games, with the team combining for just 51 points over that span – compared to 123 points totaled in the first four games of the schedule.
The Patriots are also going through an offensive crisis, with a combined outpouring of 28 points in their last three contests – including scoring just six in Sunday’s home ass-waxing at the hands of the 49ers. It’s like New England’s offense hasn’t come out of quarantine since the team’s COVID-19 outbreak in early October.
The total for this AFC East grudge match hit the board at 46 points Sunday night and was a favorite play of sharp bettors right away, dropping to 45 in about an hour. These divisional foes are a collective 0-5-1 Over/Under in their last six contests and have gone Under in six of their last nine meetings overall. If you’re on that Under bandwagon, take the U45 now before it sinks even lower.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 49): Bet Later
Given the firepower on both sides and the way the 2020 season is bursting with points like a freshly whacked pinata, seeing this total below 50 is a bit surprising. That may be the early narrative as well, with some books tacking on a half-point move to 49.5.
Pittsburgh is unblemished and coming off a high-scoring thriller against Tennessee in which it scored 27 points but only three of those came in the second half. The Steelers offense stalled like a 1997 Toyota Tercel on a cold Pennsylvania morning and can thank the defense for keeping the Titans at bay down the stretch (and also thank Stephen Gostkowski for missing a game-tying 45-yarder in the final seconds).
The Ravens offense is chewing up the gains on the ground – big surprise – but Lamar Jackson has struggled to throw the football – big surprise (no really) – with a passer rating of 99.2 (compared to 113.3 last year). Baltimore is averaging almost 30 points per game but has played plenty of pedestrian defenses along the way.
These heated rivals have gone Over in their last two meetings, but those totals were almost laughable at 44 and 38 points (HA!). Before those results, the Steelers and Ravens played below the total in six of their previous eight encounters. If you like another Under, hold your horses and wait to see how high this Week 8 O/U goes.
Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall
Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Oct. 29
ATLANTA at CAROLINA
Falcons romped in both meetings LY, but Panthers have covered 4 of last 5 after Saints result.
Carolina 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in Charlotte (1-2 for Rhule).
Falcs actually 6-1 vs. line last seven away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends
Bruce Marshall
Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Thursday, Oct. 29
ATLANTA at CAROLINA
Falcons romped in both meetings LY, but Panthers have covered 4 of last 5 after Saints result.
Carolina 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in Charlotte (1-2 for Rhule).
Falcs actually 6-1 vs. line last seven away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends
Hot & Not Report - Week 8
Matt Blunt
NFL Week 8 Betting Angles
Last week's piece had another solid showing as divisional home teams went 4-3 straight up to push that run to 16-7 SU since the start of Week 2.
Even in those three outright losses, the Bengals and Jets managed to get against the spread wins, for those bettors interested in taking the points instead with those home underdogs, as 'dogs in general in those division games in Week 7 finished with a 5-2 ATS record with Washington closing as the favorite.
There are a bunch more divisional matchups in Week 8, and some of them could be considered “Game of the Week” type candidates with the likes of Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and San Francisco-Seattle likely to get plenty of attention.
Those runs in division games that I outlined last week are definitely something to keep in the back of your mind as the Week 8 board gets broken down, but this week's piece shifts slightly away from that for one, and rehashes an even older run I mentioned a few weeks ago that continues to pay off.
Who's Hot
Since the start of Week 5, NFL underdogs in non-division Conference games are 11-4 ATS overall, including 8-2 ATS the last two weeks.
This run may have hit its peak in Week 6 with 'dogs going 6-0 ATS when the following underdogs connected:
Denver (at New England)
Chicago (at Carolina)
Atlanta (at Minnesota)
Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)
Tampa Bay (vs. Green Bay)
Arizona (at Dallas)
Things were brought back down to earth in Week 7 with a 2-2 ATS mark for the underdogs in that scenario (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Jacksonville and Chicago), but considering the games that are on the docket in Week 8 that fit into this situation, there are some interesting handicapping questions for every bettor to work through.
Who Do You Follow?
Bengals
Raiders
Jets
Bears
Giants
The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.
Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.
But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.
Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets – that line opened up at +21 – and against the Giants – that line opened up at +9.5 – it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.
The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.
After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago – including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year – any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.
Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week – they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone – Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 – but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.
The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.
Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.
Who's Not
NFL teams before a TNF (or scheduled TNF appearance) are now 2-10 SU on the year and 3-8-1 ATS
This is a run that's just continued on since I brought it up at the start of Week 5.
And after getting burned yet again by the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend (I've personally been on Atlanta vs Dallas, Chicago and now Detroit), and then seeing that the Falcons are up on TNF this week, I thought it best to put out this friendly reminder (for myself and others) to really think long and hard about backing these teams in this spot.
The Carolina Panthers are the Falcons opponent this week, and while Carolina did account for one of those three ATS wins when they covered vs New Orleans, they still found a way to lose outright.
I put in the “scheduled TNF appearance” because of what happened with the Chiefs/Bills game that was originally scheduled for a TNF appearance before virus issues pushed that game back to Monday.
Even still, the week before the Chiefs and Bills met, the Raiders upset the Chiefs as huge underdogs, and Buffalo got their doors blown off by the Titans. Those two results are included in that 2-10 SU run.
Who do you Fade?
Packers
49ers
And bringing up the reminder for this scenario this week is important because with Week 9's TNF game slated for Green Bay at San Francisco, we've got two high profile Week 8 games (Minnesota at Green Bay, SF at Seattle) where it's applicable.
Minnesota has not had this year go as planned, but they are coming off a bye week (extra prep time) and are a team that the majority of the marketplace has already written off. With Green Bay being one of the most popular selections across the board in Week 7 and cashing easily vs Houston, support for the Packers will likely be through the roof again this week.
But any team off a bye should always be considered at least a little dangerous from an ATS perspective, especially when it's a divisional opponent they know rather well.
It's also one of the ultimate “buy low, sell high” scenarios as buying low on the Vikings with the market perception being so negative on them, and selling high on a Packers team that just got the masses paid after a small setback in Tampa Bay. It really is tough to ignore getting that TD with a post-bye week Vikings squad.
Fading the 49ers as a small road 'dog should make many happy that they get to back QB Russell Wilson in that case, but as I talked about in this piece before the Arizona game, Seattle's still a bad team on 3rd down (AKA “the money down”) on both sides of the ball (5-for-13 on offense vs Arizona).
The 519 total yards Seattle's defense gave up put them in the NFL record books for the most yards allowed through six games in the history of the league (2,875), and if that's not the profile of a bad football team, I'm not sure what is.
The situation may favor a play on Seattle in this spot, but the blind spot in the market right now with many believing Seattle is actually a good football TEAM is something that's probably better to look to exploit rather than back.
Meaning as funny as this may sound, it's actually the 1-5 SU Minnesota Vikings that appear to be the much better bet than the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks.
Many won't agree with that and that's fine, I've got no problem letting the “One Man Army” that the Seahawks are with Russell Wilson continue to be overvalued.
I'm sure the band Our Lady Peace and their 90's hit “One Man Army" from my formative years would be proud of what they see in the Seahawks this year.
Matt Blunt
NFL Week 8 Betting Angles
Last week's piece had another solid showing as divisional home teams went 4-3 straight up to push that run to 16-7 SU since the start of Week 2.
Even in those three outright losses, the Bengals and Jets managed to get against the spread wins, for those bettors interested in taking the points instead with those home underdogs, as 'dogs in general in those division games in Week 7 finished with a 5-2 ATS record with Washington closing as the favorite.
There are a bunch more divisional matchups in Week 8, and some of them could be considered “Game of the Week” type candidates with the likes of Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and San Francisco-Seattle likely to get plenty of attention.
Those runs in division games that I outlined last week are definitely something to keep in the back of your mind as the Week 8 board gets broken down, but this week's piece shifts slightly away from that for one, and rehashes an even older run I mentioned a few weeks ago that continues to pay off.
Who's Hot
Since the start of Week 5, NFL underdogs in non-division Conference games are 11-4 ATS overall, including 8-2 ATS the last two weeks.
This run may have hit its peak in Week 6 with 'dogs going 6-0 ATS when the following underdogs connected:
Denver (at New England)
Chicago (at Carolina)
Atlanta (at Minnesota)
Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)
Tampa Bay (vs. Green Bay)
Arizona (at Dallas)
Things were brought back down to earth in Week 7 with a 2-2 ATS mark for the underdogs in that scenario (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Jacksonville and Chicago), but considering the games that are on the docket in Week 8 that fit into this situation, there are some interesting handicapping questions for every bettor to work through.
Who Do You Follow?
Bengals
Raiders
Jets
Bears
Giants
The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.
Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.
But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.
Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets – that line opened up at +21 – and against the Giants – that line opened up at +9.5 – it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.
The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.
After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago – including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year – any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.
Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week – they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone – Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 – but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.
The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.
Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.
Who's Not
NFL teams before a TNF (or scheduled TNF appearance) are now 2-10 SU on the year and 3-8-1 ATS
This is a run that's just continued on since I brought it up at the start of Week 5.
And after getting burned yet again by the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend (I've personally been on Atlanta vs Dallas, Chicago and now Detroit), and then seeing that the Falcons are up on TNF this week, I thought it best to put out this friendly reminder (for myself and others) to really think long and hard about backing these teams in this spot.
The Carolina Panthers are the Falcons opponent this week, and while Carolina did account for one of those three ATS wins when they covered vs New Orleans, they still found a way to lose outright.
I put in the “scheduled TNF appearance” because of what happened with the Chiefs/Bills game that was originally scheduled for a TNF appearance before virus issues pushed that game back to Monday.
Even still, the week before the Chiefs and Bills met, the Raiders upset the Chiefs as huge underdogs, and Buffalo got their doors blown off by the Titans. Those two results are included in that 2-10 SU run.
Who do you Fade?
Packers
49ers
And bringing up the reminder for this scenario this week is important because with Week 9's TNF game slated for Green Bay at San Francisco, we've got two high profile Week 8 games (Minnesota at Green Bay, SF at Seattle) where it's applicable.
Minnesota has not had this year go as planned, but they are coming off a bye week (extra prep time) and are a team that the majority of the marketplace has already written off. With Green Bay being one of the most popular selections across the board in Week 7 and cashing easily vs Houston, support for the Packers will likely be through the roof again this week.
But any team off a bye should always be considered at least a little dangerous from an ATS perspective, especially when it's a divisional opponent they know rather well.
It's also one of the ultimate “buy low, sell high” scenarios as buying low on the Vikings with the market perception being so negative on them, and selling high on a Packers team that just got the masses paid after a small setback in Tampa Bay. It really is tough to ignore getting that TD with a post-bye week Vikings squad.
Fading the 49ers as a small road 'dog should make many happy that they get to back QB Russell Wilson in that case, but as I talked about in this piece before the Arizona game, Seattle's still a bad team on 3rd down (AKA “the money down”) on both sides of the ball (5-for-13 on offense vs Arizona).
The 519 total yards Seattle's defense gave up put them in the NFL record books for the most yards allowed through six games in the history of the league (2,875), and if that's not the profile of a bad football team, I'm not sure what is.
The situation may favor a play on Seattle in this spot, but the blind spot in the market right now with many believing Seattle is actually a good football TEAM is something that's probably better to look to exploit rather than back.
Meaning as funny as this may sound, it's actually the 1-5 SU Minnesota Vikings that appear to be the much better bet than the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks.
Many won't agree with that and that's fine, I've got no problem letting the “One Man Army” that the Seahawks are with Russell Wilson continue to be overvalued.
I'm sure the band Our Lady Peace and their 90's hit “One Man Army" from my formative years would be proud of what they see in the Seahawks this year.
