Thursday 07/02/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Thursday 07/02/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Thursday, July 2

Lady Luck: Today's WNBA best bets

Sacramento Monarchs at Minnesota Lynx (-6.5, 159.5)

Yes, the Monarchs are that bad.

The worst team in the league continues its shuffle toward the top draft pick by taking its 1-8 record on the road. Sacramento is 0-6 on the road this season and is allowing a staggering 79.1 points per game as it has topped the total five times in nine games.

Minnesota (7-3), which sits alone atop the Western Conference standings, has a ridiculous 9-1 over/under mark as it averages 85.3 points per game, second-best in the league. There will be plenty of points in this game, but don’t look for Sacramento to be scoring them.

Pick: Over


Detroit Shock at New York Liberty (-3.5, 143.5)

When these two teams meet tonight there will be a title on the line: the loser gets crowned worst team in the Eastern Conference.

The Shock have battled suspensions and injuries but have floundered to a 2-5 record as they have lost four of five and are averaging a horrendous 72 points per game. It doesn’t get much prettier for the Liberty, which at 2-6, has failed to bounce back from losing its first three games because of a dreadful offense. And if you think the Shock can’t score, wait until you see New York’s feeble attempts to hit its hideous, 70.4-point average.

Pick: Liberty
 
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CFL LONG SHEET

Thursday, July 2

WINNIPEG (0 - 0) at EDMONTON (0 - 0) - 7/2/2009, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Trend Report

JULY 2

9:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Winnipeg is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Edmonton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
 

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Hot lines: Thursday’s best MLB bets
By COVERS


Philadelphia vs. Atlanta

The Phillies were one of the coldest teams in the majors heading into their series in Atlanta with just three wins in their 12 games prior. But if they’re hoping to turn things around on Thursday, they had to groan when they saw who was scheduled to call the balls and strikes.

Mike Everitt, one of the biggest homers in baseball this season, will be the home plate umpire Thursday. Everitt has seen the home team go 12-4 when he’s calling the game this year and only two umpires in the majors have seen the home team win more games.

It could be just a coincidence, but you can’t argue with the numbers: the home team is winning by an average margin of nearly three runs (2.88) with Everitt behind home. He calls a tight strike zone with a 61.8 strike percentage and that should help play into the hands of scheduled Braves starter Javier Vasquez. Vasquez has a 2.01 ERA in his past three starts.

Pick: Atlanta

Baltimore vs. L.A. Angels

Do you remember that scene from Bull Durham when the manager hauls all the players into the shower and blasts them for being a bunch of “lollygaggers”? Well, that’s kind of what Angels manager Mike Scioscia did after the team lost 11-1 to the Tampa Bay Rays back on June 11.

Minus hauling them into the shower, that is.

According to a story in the Orange County Register, the veteran skipper gave his team the what-for and the results have been impressive. The Angels responded by going 13-4 in their next 17 games and their bats are hotter than the Cali sun.

L.A. scored at least eight runs in seven of those games during the streak and the club was held to fewer than four runs just three times. The scoring spike is showing up in the odds too, where over/unders in Angels games have recently bumped to higher than 10 runs.

We’d advise you to be careful of the rising totals, but with the lowly O’s coming to town you can expect the scoreboard operator to stay busy.

Pick: Over
 

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Net prophet: Day 10 Wimbledon picks
By RYAN TYLER


A look at Wimbledon's Day 10 betting card with complete analysis and picks by respected Covers.com tennis forum poster, gtmoney76 (a.k.a. Ryan Tyler).

Novak Djokovic -245 over Haas- Haas beat Djokovic a little over a week ago at the Halle warm-up tourney. Watching Djokovic that week, he just really didn't seem to be all there and Haas was in great form.

It’s a little different circumstance this week. Haas is still in great form but Djokovic seems to be playing a lot better. He seems motivated and I feel that will be the difference. Haas is 9-1 in his last 10 on grass but over the last week he has dropped two sets to Cilic and one to Peya. Djokovic is 8-2 in his last 10 but the only set he dropped was in the first round versus Benneteau in a tiebreak.

I think this may go four or even five sets but Djokovic will prevail.

Roddick -245 over Hewitt- Roddick's serve will be hard for Hewitt to break and that give him the edge to prevail in tiebreaks. Roddick beat him a little over two weeks ago in Queens. Roddick has won the last four matchups but Hewitt leads 6-5 overall. Roddick is the clear choice here

Other Leans (only because of the amount of juice)

Fedex over Ivo - We know who Wimbledon will belong to this year.

Murray over JCF- Murray will roll with the crowd behind him

WTA for July 2

Venus over Dinara -440

Serena over Dima- 415

This is a two-team parlay and we'll see all-Williams final. They have met each other here before and it will happen again.
 

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PGA Tour: AT&T National preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The tour heads to Bethesda, MD and Congressional Country Club for the AT&T National which is hosted by none other than Tiger Woods this week. Tiger missed his own tournament last season because of the knee surgery that sidelined him for nearly 10 months. He is back and is the big favorite in what is a healthy but not overly impressive field.

Only four of the OWGR top 10 players are in action with Paul Casey (3), Vijay Singh (9) and Jim Furyk (10) joining Tiger.

Congressional, a 7,255-yard Devereut Emmet designed layout, has hosted three majors - the last being the 1997 U.S. Open. It is also the site for the 2011 U.S. Open but there is one big change that has taken place since the last major took place here: At the time, Congressional became the first U.S. Open course to finish with a par-3. And it will likely be the last.

The USGA brought in Rees Jones to redesign the layout. The finishing hole is now a 466-yard par-4, formerly the 17th hole.

There are 13 past major winners in the field including 2009 U.S. Open winner Lucas Glover (+4000) who is making his second straight start following his championship. He is coming off an impressive T-11 at the Travelers Championship which is notable considering the tiring week he had leading up to the Thursday start.

He tied for 54th last year at the AT&T following a T-12 in 2007 so with his current momentum, he cannot be counted out.

Woods (+175) is making his first start since Bethpage and his first start at the AT&T since 2007 when he finished T-6. He tied for 19th at the 1997 U.S. Open so he has played the course well in the two times he has been in an event here. He has not teed it up much this season due to his rehab but when he plays, he has not been far out. He has two wins this season and in seven stroke play events, he has placed in the top 10 in all seven. We will see more of the same come Sunday.

Defending AT&T National Champion Anthony Kim (+2000) is starting to finally look like the player that won twice and had six official top three finishes in 2008. There was talk about his current work ethic regressing as he was known to be lackadaisical in the past but those rumors have been put to rest for the time being.

He tied for 16th at the U.S. Open and had a T-11 at the Travelers last week so things seem to be turning around after not having a top 25 since the Masters.

One player to keep an eye on who seems to be around all the time is Hunter Mahan (+1500). He has yet to break through this season but he has four top 10 finishes and his recent form bodes well. His last six tournaments have seen results of T-72, T-45, T-27, T-14, T-6 and T-4 so you can see the trend that is taking place. He seems to like the course as he finished T-8 in 2007 and T-12 in 2008 in the first two years of this tournament at Congressional.

If looking for a sleeper, look no further than K.J. Choi (+5000). He has only one top 10 finish this season and that was way back in February at the Northern Trust Open when he finished T-3. He went on a miserable run of four missed cuts in five events and then finished T-71 at The Players. He took a month off to regroup and came back with a solid 13th place finish at the Memorial before a T-47 at the U.S. Open.

Choi won this even in 2007 prior to his T-49 last year.

Recommended plays for the AT&T National

Hunter Mahan (+1500) 2 Units

Tiger Woods (+175) 2 Units

K.J. Choi (+5000) ½ Unit

A win by Mahan or Choi will return close to the same amount while a Woods victory works as the safety valve.
 

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CFL Week 1: Analysis and predictions
By CHARLES-ANDRÉ MARCHAND


(8-10 in 2008) Edmonton Eskimos vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-8 in 2008) (-9.5, O/U 51.5)


The Eskimos may be the most improved team in the CFL and they could even end up wining the Western Conference. The Blue Bombers have also improved during the offseason and they should be pursuing the Alouettes for the Eastern Conference title. But one can still wonder if Stefan LeFors is the QB that will bring them back to the glory days in Winnipeg. If the youthful secondary of the Eskimos hangs on, their new head coach Richie Hall could celebrate his first win at the helm of this Edmonton squad.


Prediction: Edmonton


B.C. Lions (11-7 in 2008) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-6 in 2008) (+1, O/U 48.5)


The Lions will miss defensive end Cam Wake and running back Stefan Logan, who both departed for the riches of the NFL. And that’s without mentioning the losses of tackle Rob Murphy, slotback Jason Clermont or linebacker Otis Floyd. But the Lions still have tremendous passing power and defensively they are still stronger than the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Riders are a squad who seem condemned to a year of misery, especially with many injuries at key positions for the start of this season. B.C. fans probably won’t have has many reasons to rejoice this season as in the past but at least they should celebrate a victory this week in Regina.


Prediction: B.C.
 
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MLB WRITE-UP

Thursday, July 2

Hot Pitchers
-- Davis has 1.29 RA in his last two starts, but Arizona is 2-9 in his last eleven outings.
-- Correia is 4-1, 2.41 in his last five starts.
-- Happ is 1-0, 1.20 in his last two starts. Vazquez has a 2.11 RA in his last six starts.
-- Maholm is 3-1, 2.18 in his six home starts.

-- Sabathia is 2-0, 2.81 in his last three starts.
-- White Sox won five of Buehrle's six road starts.
-- Guthrie is 2-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts. Lackey is 1-1, 3.27 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Harang is 0-4, 5.90 in his last six starts.
-- Rodriguez is 1-3, 8.24 in his last four road starts.
-- Wellemeyer is 1-3, 7.18 in his last six starts. Zito has a 6.86 RA in his last seven starts.
-- Dempster is 0-2, 4.11 in his last five starts. McClung allowed three runs in four IP in his first '09 start, against the Giants.
-- Redding is 1-1, 5.84 in his last four starts.

-- Vargas is 1-2, 4.27 in his last four starts.
-- Chen lost 6-2 in Pittsburgh Saturday (four runs in six IP) in his first major league start in three years.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won seven of their last ten home games..
-- Marlins won their last seven home games.
-- Giants won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Brewers won four of their last five games.
-- Astros won four of their last six road games.
-- Rockies won 21 of their last 25 games.

-- Bronx won its last six games, outscoring foes 45-19. Mariners won four of their last five games.
-- White Sox won eight of their last ten games.
-- Tampa Bay won 15 of its last 19 games.
-- Orioles won five of their last seven home games. Red Sox are 11-4 in their last fifteen road games.
-- Twins are 9-5 in their last fourteen road games.
-- Angels won 13 of their last 17 games.
-- Tigers won eight of their last eleven games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Diamondbacks lost eight of their last ten games. Reds lost four of last five home games.
-- Nationals lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Braves lost four of their last six games. Phillies lost 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Mets are 6-14 in their last 20 games, losing the last five.
-- Cardinals are 6-11 in their last seventeen home games.
-- Padres lost eleven of their last seventeen games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games, but are 9-2 against Rockies so far this season. .

-- Indians lost twelve of their last fourteen games.
-- Toronto is 6-12 in its last eighteen home games.
-- Royals lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Rangers are 6-9 in their last fifteen home games.
-- Oakland lost seven of its last nine games.

Totals
-- Under is 10-4-1 in Cubs' last fifteen road games.
-- Under is 8-3 in Cincinnati's last eleven home games.
-- Six of last eight Washington road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in Atlanta's last eleven home games.
-- Eleven of last fifteen Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Three of Giants' last four games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Houston road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-4 in Dodgers' last fourteen home games.

-- Under is 15-4-1 in Seattle's last twenty road games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in White Sox' last six games.
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eleven Toronto home games went over the total.
-- 13 of last 15 Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Kansas City home games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen games at Oakland.
 
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Trend Report

12:35 PM
ARIZONA vs. CINCINNATI
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Arizona
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona

12:35 PM
NY METS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing NY Mets

3:35 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
San Diego is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home

7:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY YANKEES
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games when playing Seattle
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

7:10 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

7:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 10 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

10:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. LA ANGELS
Baltimore is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Baltimore is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Angels's last 9 games when playing Baltimore
 
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Bob Harvey

Atlanta Braves (-136)
Thu Jul 2 '09 7:10p

I’ve been told the key to making money with Atlanta this year is to back them every time they face a lefthander. If the Braves treatment of Cole Hamels on Wednesday night is any indication, I’m backing up the Brinks truck and throwing it all on Atlanta.

The Braves, who demolished Hamels and the Phillies 11-1, look for a repeat performance against A.J. Happ. He’s talented, he’s 5-0 but he’s also a southpaw. Happ is coming off a complete game 10-0 shutout of Toronto on Saturday and he may need an encore performance to keep the Phillies close.
Philadelphia is 4-13 in its last 17 games. That slide has a lot to due with the loss of Raul Ibanez who is on the disabled list Without him the Phils lackluster lineup has scored two or fewer runs in five of the last 11 games.

Atlanta is 6-2 against Philadelphia this season and are poised for their fist series sweep in four years. The Braves have won three straight overall and will look to extend their streak with Javier Vazquez on the hill. The veteran righthander is just 5-7 but his ERA of 3.07 ranks in the top ten in the NL. Vazquez is also 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA in his two starts against the Phils this season. Among starting pitchers this season Vasquez leads the majors with 7.96 strikeouts per 100 pitchers (K/100P).

Oh and about those lefthanders. Atlanta is hitting .272 on the season and .294 in their last ten games against southpaws.
 
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Mike Rose

Edmonton Eskimos -9.5 (-110)
Thu Jul 2 '09 9:05p

Over the past several seasons, the cogs that made the Blue Bombers go were QB Kevin Glenn, RB Charles Roberts, and WR Milt Stegall. But Glenn (free agency), Blink (trade), and Uncle Milt (retired) have all moved on from Winnipeg, and the team is forced to start anew. The new wave of Blue Bombers will be headed up by QB Stefan LeFors, who backed up QB Ricky Ray in Edmonton the L/2 seasons. There’s still a big question mark about how well LeFors, a University of Louisville product, can do at this level. He wasn’t even good enough to be the second string man last season, as Jason Maas took that responsibility. As a result, LeFors only threw four passes all season, one of which was picked off. RB Fred Reid showed some flashes last season, but he isn’t amongst the best backs the league has to offer. If there is one bright spot for the Bombers, it’s at wide receiver, where Derick Armstrong, Terrence Edwards, and Romby Bryant all have NFL-type talent. The defense is stock full of new names, and is a big reason why the team will have a whopping 20 new names on the roster this season.

Thanks to the additions of DB Kelly Malveaux, DE Kai Ellis, and RB Jesse Lumsden, the green and gold really feel like they have a shot at taking all the marbles this season after a couple of sub-par years. New HC Richie Hall was the man that led Saskatchewan’s defense to the Grey Cup two years ago, and many in Canada feel as though his time to become a head coach in this league was far overdue. Many also think that the subtraction of former coach, the much-maligned Danny Maciocia, will aid the club. Capping the Eskies is pretty easy. As goes Ricky Ray, so will go the Eskimos. Ray led the CFL last year in both completion percentage (69.8%) and passing yards (5,661), and he is largely accepted as one of the best in the biz over the L/10 years or so. He leads an offense that averaged 25.6 points per game last season, but that average should go up thanks to the addition of Lumsden, who, when healthy, is arguably one of the best backs in the league.

Winnipeg has the longest Grey Cup drought of any team in the CFL at 18 years. They’re probably not going to be taking too many steps in the right direction this year, as it’s clearly a rebuilding era. Though LeFors has looked at this Edmonton defense for his entire career in practice, this defense knows him just as well. Expect to see some jitters early on from the young starter, while the veteran, Ray eats up a questionable defense.
 
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Dave Cokin

(953) HOUSTON ASTROS
(954) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take "(954) SAN DIEGO PADRES"

There's not much to cheer about for Padres fans, but the team is getting some outstanding pitching from two unexpected sources. Kevin Correia and Chad Gaudin have been doing some outstanding work lately, and Correia looks for another good start today. Wandy Rodriguez won't be easy for the punchless Padres to solve, but San Diego is at least respectable at home and I give them a decent shot at a win in today's series finale.
 
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Jim Feist

(951) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
(952) CINCINNATI REDS
Take "(952) CINCINNATI REDS"

It's been a good week for the Reds, winning at Toronto then taking 2 of 3 at Cleveland. They face an Arizona team a long way from home. Arizona starter Doug Davis (3-8) has been struggling with control, walking 11 batters in his last 3 starts (19 innings). Arizona has been struggling badly with a terrible offense. That's just what the doctor ordered for Cincy ace Aaron Harang, who has a sizzling 1.66 ERA in 54 career innings (11 walks) against Arizona. Play the Reds.
 

Say Hello To My Little Friend, Steve Puppet!
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I see the idiots have finally started to spell Dominic's lastname right. :laugh:

capper.jpg




Fazz.jpg


Dominic Fazzini Comp Play

Todd Wellemeyer (6-7, 5.68 ERA) is clinging to his spot in the Cardinals’ rotation after going 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA in six June starts. The right-hander allowed three runs on four hits and four walks in just 2 1/3 innings Saturday against Minnesota.<o:p></o:p>
Wellemeyer could redeem himself today against the Giants, who he is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against.<o:p></o:p>
And Wellemeyer will be opposed by San Francisco left-hander Barry Zito, who has not enjoyed facing St. Louis, and Albert Pujols in particular, since coming to the National League.<o:p></o:p>
Zito (4-7, 4.55) is 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA in three starts vs. the Cardinals since joining the Giants in 2007. And Pujols is 5-for-9 with two homers and eight RBIs against Zito.<o:p></o:p>
While Pujols has been punishing just about every pitcher he faces, he has really inflicted damage against San Francisco, going 12-for-19 (.632) with four homers this season.<o:p></o:p>
Zito went 3-1 in five June starts, but that is a little misleading as his ERA was 5.81. He might start July off with a higher figure than that once Pujols and his teammates get done with him. Go with the Cardinals.
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

2♦ ST. LOUIS
 

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#1 Sports

Thursday's free selection:

Los Angeles Angels - 155
 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: MLB

Pittsburgh w/Maholm -140 Over The Mets
 

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Platinum Plays

Free Selection MLB:

CHICAGO WHITE SOX & KANSAS CITY ROYALS OVER 9 Runs
 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY:

NY METS (Redding) +125 over Pittsburgh
 

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Totals4U

Thursday's free selection:

Philadelphia/Atlanta over 8 1/2
 

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