NBA Finals Preview
By: Big Al McMordie
Cleveland.com said it best: “It's time to put the puppets away. There will be no LeBron James-Kobe Bryant NBA Finals.” It looked like a shoo-in for the top two seeds to meet, setting up a Kobe/LeBron Finals. But once the Eastern Conference Finals began, you could see the Magic were a terrific team that matched up very well with the Cavs. In Game 1, Orlando shot 55% and stole the first game as a +9 dog against what had been the best defensive team in the regular season.
They continued to top 100 points and shoot lights-out because they matched up so well in the frontcourt. The final Game 6 win, 103-90, was no longer a shock or a big upset. The bigger, better team won.
So now what? The No. 3 seeded Magic take on the No. 1 seed in the West, the Lakers, for the title. At first glance, it’s the battle of the big men, with both teams stacked up front with 6-10, 6-11 and 7-foot trees. I can’t recall such a Finals matchup of big men since 1986, when the Celtics' Hall of Fame frontcourt troika matched up with 7-foot Hakeem Olajuwon and 7-4 Ralph Sampson.
This looks like a good matchup for the Lakers. With Cleveland getting knocked off, LA now gets home court advantage, a huge advantage it didn’t have a year ago. The great Boston defense and physical play smacked them around in six games, coming from 24-points down to win Game 4 and winning by 39 in Game 6. The Lakers were embarrassed and have incentive (and experience) on their side.
Orlando's strength is up front with Dwight Howard, 6-10 Rashard Lewis and even 6-10 Hedo Turkoglu, who can shoot from long range or drive down low. They have used that big advantage all thru the playoffs. But that won’t be an edge now, as the Lakers are the only team bigger up front, with a pair of 7-footers (Gasol, Bynum) plus 6-10 Lamar Odom.
Then there is some guy named Kobe Bryant in the backcourt who Orlando will have to contend with. The Magic backcourt isn’t really as good as you might think after watching them rain threes on Boston and Cleveland. In five of seven games the banged-up Celtics held Orlando to 95 points or less, something the Cavs couldn’t do. And Orlando had no answer for LeBron, who averaged 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.2 assists in the series. You may think the game plan was to let LeBron strut his stuff and worry about the other guys, which is partially true, but it’s also true that Orlando has no backcourt defensive stopper. That will be a problem against the Lakers and Kobe. They also lost their All-Star guard in mid-season, Jameer Nelson, a terrific young talent. Nelson may be able to play this series, but will be very limited, perhaps just 15 minutes per game.
The Magic swept the season series with LA. Orlando had a 106-103 victory over the Lakers December 20th in Orlando. They shot 48.6% and held LA to 41% shooting, though the rebounding battle was even. Bynum had three points and five fouls in only 12 minutes. Bryant missed a three at the buzzer that would have sent the game to overtime, but made 14 of 31 shots, and all 11 of his free throws for 41 points.
Stan Van Gundy joked afterward, "I don't think anybody is coming to me for a gig about defending Kobe. We better keep winning games, so I can stay employed." The Magic made 12 of 33 threes. LA is a great free throw shooting team and hit 24-of-25 in that game, while Orlando missed 15 freebies (24-of-39, 61%). Poor free throw shooting should hurt them at some point in this series, both straight up and against the number.
They met again, January 16, in LA and Orlando won, 109-103. LA shot 39%, the Magic 44%. Orlando won with a big fourth quarter and a whopping 54-40 edge in rebounds. Howard had 25 points and 20 rebounds. By the way, the leading scorer in BOTH those games for the Magic was Jameer Nelson (28 and 27). Orlando missed 11 free throws in that rematch (67%).
Do not read too much into the regular season meetings. LA was playing the second of a back to back in the first meeting, and its 3rd game in four nights in the rematch. One final thought: Who do you think Shaq is rooting for? He couldn’t stand coach Jeff Van Gundy when they were in Miami, and he couldn’t stand Kobe in LA. I suspect the Magic.
By: Big Al McMordie
Cleveland.com said it best: “It's time to put the puppets away. There will be no LeBron James-Kobe Bryant NBA Finals.” It looked like a shoo-in for the top two seeds to meet, setting up a Kobe/LeBron Finals. But once the Eastern Conference Finals began, you could see the Magic were a terrific team that matched up very well with the Cavs. In Game 1, Orlando shot 55% and stole the first game as a +9 dog against what had been the best defensive team in the regular season.
They continued to top 100 points and shoot lights-out because they matched up so well in the frontcourt. The final Game 6 win, 103-90, was no longer a shock or a big upset. The bigger, better team won.
So now what? The No. 3 seeded Magic take on the No. 1 seed in the West, the Lakers, for the title. At first glance, it’s the battle of the big men, with both teams stacked up front with 6-10, 6-11 and 7-foot trees. I can’t recall such a Finals matchup of big men since 1986, when the Celtics' Hall of Fame frontcourt troika matched up with 7-foot Hakeem Olajuwon and 7-4 Ralph Sampson.
This looks like a good matchup for the Lakers. With Cleveland getting knocked off, LA now gets home court advantage, a huge advantage it didn’t have a year ago. The great Boston defense and physical play smacked them around in six games, coming from 24-points down to win Game 4 and winning by 39 in Game 6. The Lakers were embarrassed and have incentive (and experience) on their side.
Orlando's strength is up front with Dwight Howard, 6-10 Rashard Lewis and even 6-10 Hedo Turkoglu, who can shoot from long range or drive down low. They have used that big advantage all thru the playoffs. But that won’t be an edge now, as the Lakers are the only team bigger up front, with a pair of 7-footers (Gasol, Bynum) plus 6-10 Lamar Odom.
Then there is some guy named Kobe Bryant in the backcourt who Orlando will have to contend with. The Magic backcourt isn’t really as good as you might think after watching them rain threes on Boston and Cleveland. In five of seven games the banged-up Celtics held Orlando to 95 points or less, something the Cavs couldn’t do. And Orlando had no answer for LeBron, who averaged 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.2 assists in the series. You may think the game plan was to let LeBron strut his stuff and worry about the other guys, which is partially true, but it’s also true that Orlando has no backcourt defensive stopper. That will be a problem against the Lakers and Kobe. They also lost their All-Star guard in mid-season, Jameer Nelson, a terrific young talent. Nelson may be able to play this series, but will be very limited, perhaps just 15 minutes per game.
The Magic swept the season series with LA. Orlando had a 106-103 victory over the Lakers December 20th in Orlando. They shot 48.6% and held LA to 41% shooting, though the rebounding battle was even. Bynum had three points and five fouls in only 12 minutes. Bryant missed a three at the buzzer that would have sent the game to overtime, but made 14 of 31 shots, and all 11 of his free throws for 41 points.
Stan Van Gundy joked afterward, "I don't think anybody is coming to me for a gig about defending Kobe. We better keep winning games, so I can stay employed." The Magic made 12 of 33 threes. LA is a great free throw shooting team and hit 24-of-25 in that game, while Orlando missed 15 freebies (24-of-39, 61%). Poor free throw shooting should hurt them at some point in this series, both straight up and against the number.
They met again, January 16, in LA and Orlando won, 109-103. LA shot 39%, the Magic 44%. Orlando won with a big fourth quarter and a whopping 54-40 edge in rebounds. Howard had 25 points and 20 rebounds. By the way, the leading scorer in BOTH those games for the Magic was Jameer Nelson (28 and 27). Orlando missed 11 free throws in that rematch (67%).
Do not read too much into the regular season meetings. LA was playing the second of a back to back in the first meeting, and its 3rd game in four nights in the rematch. One final thought: Who do you think Shaq is rooting for? He couldn’t stand coach Jeff Van Gundy when they were in Miami, and he couldn’t stand Kobe in LA. I suspect the Magic.
Handicapping the Finals
By Chris David
The NBA Finals tip off Thursday and even though the majority of sports fans wanted to see Kobe Bryant and LeBron James square off in the finale, the battle between the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers is the better matchup.
With only a possibility of seven games left to wager on, let’s take a closer look on how you can make some money in the final best-of-seven series and things to think about when wagering over the next couple weeks.
Series Price
After cashing tickets as a 5/1 underdogs (Bet $100 to win $500) against the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the oddsmakers have given the Magic some respect. The Lakers have been installed as minus-250 (Bet $250 to win $100) favorites at Sportsbook.com, while backers can ride Orlando to the bank again at a plus-200 price (Bet $100 to win $200).
Los Angeles was a minus-200 favorite (Bet $200 to win $100) last year against the Celtics and we know how that turned out as Boston captured the title.
According to our NBA Finals History, the Eastern and Western Conferences have alternated championships the last six seasons.
Will the West keep the trend going?
Exact Series Result
For those of you not familiar with this future wager, it’s pretty simple. Just predict what team will win the best-of-seven series and in how many games, with 4, 5, 6 and 7 being the only choices.
It’s also a much smarter bet in terms of risk vs. reward.
Exact Series Results from Sportsbook.com
Magic 4 Games 23-1
Magic 5 Games 10-1
Magic 6 Games 9-1
Magic 7 Games 9-1
Lakers 4 Games 8-1
Lakers 5 Games 6-1
Lakers 6 Games 5-2
Lakers 7 Games 5-2
Looking at the odds above, you can actually find yourself value and limit your risk compared to playing the Lakers on the series price. L.A. has won its three postseason series this year in five (Utah), seven (Houston) and six (Denver) games. The Magic have captured a pair of series in six games (76ers, Cavs) and also faced one seven-game series (Celtics), winning the decisive battle on the road too.
The Lakers’ Phil Jackson has won nine championships as a head coach, three coming in Los Angeles and six with Chicago but he has lost his last two visits to the finale. In his nine trips to the NBA Finals, the legendary coach has never faced a Game 7. Perhaps this is the year he gets tested in a decisive battle.
Orlando has only been to the NBA Finals once and it was swept by the Houston Rockets in the 1994 season.
Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy has been in 10 playoff series with the Magic and the Miami Heat and owns a 7-3 record, more importantly he’s never been swept.
Travel Plans
The NBA Finals switched to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, hoping to ease the travel of teams, media, league officials and whoever else was following the best-of-seven series. While it seemed like the right move and still does in some eyes, you can easily see that ABC is making the schedule of the finals and not the NBA.
All of the games will be played on Tuesday (3,6), Thursday (1,4,7) and/or Sunday (5) but the days between the battles make no sense. The Lakers and Magic will get two days off between Game 1-2 and 4-5, but only one-day breaks between 2-3, 3-4 and 6-7. So after playing two on the West Coast, the two clubs will get one day to relax before heading back to Florida? And if necessary, the same situation happens again if they head back to California?
The Lakers will have six days off after finishing off the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals last Friday. On three-days of rest or more, Los Angeles owns a 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread record. The Magic have gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in the same situation.
On just one day off, both the Lakers (45-15 SU, 26-34 ATS) and Magic (43-19 SU, 37-25 ATS) have been productive during the season.
And with two days to prepare, Van Gundy’s team has posted a 15-3 SU and 12-5-1 ATS ledger while the Lakers are just as good at 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS.
Most Valuable Player
Betting on the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player doesn’t always provide the best value, and the top players usually claim the honor. However, you can take some chances and sometimes you can get lucky according to VI’s Managing Editor Brian Edwards.
He explained, “I think you undoubtedly stay away from betting Kobe as the minus-300 favorite at Brobury Sports. Even if he does win MVP honors, you have to risk a ridiculous $300 just to bring home $100. We had a similar situation with San Antonio’s Tim Duncan two years ago at minus-300 and Tony Parker ended up winning the hardware at 4/1 odds.”
“I think you come with a moderate-to-strong wager on Dwight Howard at plus-300 odds (risk $100 to win $300). Then you get a small taste of Rashard Lewis (16/1) and/or Hedo Turkoglu (14/1). I think those numbers for Lewis and Turkoglu are extremely attractive. Both guys have shown a propensity to knock down big shots at crunch time. You had Turkoglu draining that game winner at Philadelphia when Orlando was in serious trouble in that first-round series. Lewis hit the money shot in Game 1 at Cleveland and who knows how that series plays out if he missed that attempt?”
“The longshots for the Lakers just aren’t that appealing to me. Even if you want to take a shot with Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom, you still have to believe that the “bigs” are going to be saddled with foul trouble a lot in dealing with Howard in the lane.”
vegasinsider
By Chris David
The NBA Finals tip off Thursday and even though the majority of sports fans wanted to see Kobe Bryant and LeBron James square off in the finale, the battle between the Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers is the better matchup.
With only a possibility of seven games left to wager on, let’s take a closer look on how you can make some money in the final best-of-seven series and things to think about when wagering over the next couple weeks.
Series Price
After cashing tickets as a 5/1 underdogs (Bet $100 to win $500) against the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the oddsmakers have given the Magic some respect. The Lakers have been installed as minus-250 (Bet $250 to win $100) favorites at Sportsbook.com, while backers can ride Orlando to the bank again at a plus-200 price (Bet $100 to win $200).
Los Angeles was a minus-200 favorite (Bet $200 to win $100) last year against the Celtics and we know how that turned out as Boston captured the title.
According to our NBA Finals History, the Eastern and Western Conferences have alternated championships the last six seasons.
Will the West keep the trend going?
Exact Series Result
For those of you not familiar with this future wager, it’s pretty simple. Just predict what team will win the best-of-seven series and in how many games, with 4, 5, 6 and 7 being the only choices.
It’s also a much smarter bet in terms of risk vs. reward.
Exact Series Results from Sportsbook.com
Magic 4 Games 23-1
Magic 5 Games 10-1
Magic 6 Games 9-1
Magic 7 Games 9-1
Lakers 4 Games 8-1
Lakers 5 Games 6-1
Lakers 6 Games 5-2
Lakers 7 Games 5-2
Looking at the odds above, you can actually find yourself value and limit your risk compared to playing the Lakers on the series price. L.A. has won its three postseason series this year in five (Utah), seven (Houston) and six (Denver) games. The Magic have captured a pair of series in six games (76ers, Cavs) and also faced one seven-game series (Celtics), winning the decisive battle on the road too.
The Lakers’ Phil Jackson has won nine championships as a head coach, three coming in Los Angeles and six with Chicago but he has lost his last two visits to the finale. In his nine trips to the NBA Finals, the legendary coach has never faced a Game 7. Perhaps this is the year he gets tested in a decisive battle.
Orlando has only been to the NBA Finals once and it was swept by the Houston Rockets in the 1994 season.
Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy has been in 10 playoff series with the Magic and the Miami Heat and owns a 7-3 record, more importantly he’s never been swept.
Travel Plans
The NBA Finals switched to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, hoping to ease the travel of teams, media, league officials and whoever else was following the best-of-seven series. While it seemed like the right move and still does in some eyes, you can easily see that ABC is making the schedule of the finals and not the NBA.
All of the games will be played on Tuesday (3,6), Thursday (1,4,7) and/or Sunday (5) but the days between the battles make no sense. The Lakers and Magic will get two days off between Game 1-2 and 4-5, but only one-day breaks between 2-3, 3-4 and 6-7. So after playing two on the West Coast, the two clubs will get one day to relax before heading back to Florida? And if necessary, the same situation happens again if they head back to California?
The Lakers will have six days off after finishing off the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals last Friday. On three-days of rest or more, Los Angeles owns a 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread record. The Magic have gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in the same situation.
On just one day off, both the Lakers (45-15 SU, 26-34 ATS) and Magic (43-19 SU, 37-25 ATS) have been productive during the season.
And with two days to prepare, Van Gundy’s team has posted a 15-3 SU and 12-5-1 ATS ledger while the Lakers are just as good at 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS.
Most Valuable Player
Betting on the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player doesn’t always provide the best value, and the top players usually claim the honor. However, you can take some chances and sometimes you can get lucky according to VI’s Managing Editor Brian Edwards.
He explained, “I think you undoubtedly stay away from betting Kobe as the minus-300 favorite at Brobury Sports. Even if he does win MVP honors, you have to risk a ridiculous $300 just to bring home $100. We had a similar situation with San Antonio’s Tim Duncan two years ago at minus-300 and Tony Parker ended up winning the hardware at 4/1 odds.”
“I think you come with a moderate-to-strong wager on Dwight Howard at plus-300 odds (risk $100 to win $300). Then you get a small taste of Rashard Lewis (16/1) and/or Hedo Turkoglu (14/1). I think those numbers for Lewis and Turkoglu are extremely attractive. Both guys have shown a propensity to knock down big shots at crunch time. You had Turkoglu draining that game winner at Philadelphia when Orlando was in serious trouble in that first-round series. Lewis hit the money shot in Game 1 at Cleveland and who knows how that series plays out if he missed that attempt?”
“The longshots for the Lakers just aren’t that appealing to me. Even if you want to take a shot with Pau Gasol or Lamar Odom, you still have to believe that the “bigs” are going to be saddled with foul trouble a lot in dealing with Howard in the lane.”
vegasinsider
Lakers-Magic Preview
By Kevin Rogers
**No. 1 Los Angeles vs. No. 3 Orlando**
Series Price: Los Angeles -250 Denver +200
Series Format: 2-3-2
Skinny
The NBA Finals is set, but it's not the dream matchup commissioner David Stern was hoping for. LeBron James will be sitting at home watching Kobe Bryant's Lakers battle Dwight Howard and the Magic. This is the second consecutive season Phil Jackson's team has advanced to the Finals, and the sixth Finals appearance for Bryant. Since 1991, Jackson has led his teams (Lakers and Bulls) to the Finals twelve times including this year, winning nine championships. On the flip side, Stan Van Gundy is making his first appearance as head coach in the Finals, after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals with Miami in 2005. The Magic are playing in their second NBA Finals in franchise history, after getting swept by the Houston Rockets in 1995.
The road to the championship is never easy, and the Magic and Lakers are certainly no exception. Orlando dropped the opener of their first round series to Philadelphia on a last-second shot by Andre Iguodala, but bounced back to capture four of the next five games, eliminating the Sixers. The Magic's next task was to eliminate the defending champion Celtics. Orlando split the first two games in Boston, then split the next two in Orlando to make the series a best-of-three. Boston overcame a 10-point deficit in the final five minutes of Game 5 at home to take a 3-2 series lead over Orlando, but the Magic grabbed a Game 6 victory at home, before blowing out the C's in Beantown in the deciding Game 7 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals against Cleveland. All Orlando needed was to win one game at Quicken Loans Arena, where the Cavaliers had lost two games all season, and that mandatory victory was the Game 1 win in which Rashard Lewis drilled a three-pointer to put the Magic ahead for good in the final seconds. LeBron's buzzer-beater in Game 2 gave Cleveland life, but Orlando won three of the next four, with all three wins coming at home to advance to the Finals.
The Lakers coasted through the first round, knocking out the Jazz in five games, with the lone defeat coming by two points. Los Angeles overcame a Game 1 home loss in the second round to Houston to down the Rockets in seven games, but it was one of the more odder series you will see. Six of the seven games were decided by at least 12 points, as the Rockets took the Lakers to the limit despite losing center Yao Ming for the final four games with an injured left foot. Bryant averaged 27.4 ppg in the first two series, but Kobe saved his best for last. Bryant scored 34 points a game in L.A.'s six-game series victory over Denver in the Western Conference Finals, including a 35-point, 10-assist effort in the series clinching win on Friday night.
The Magic swept the season series from the Lakers, taking both games by a combined nine points. Orlando topped Los Angeles on Dec. 20 at Amway Arena, 106-103 as 1 1/2-point underdogs, while eclisping the total of 205 1/2. The Lakers owned a nine-point lead at halftime, and were led by Bryant's game-high 41 points, but the Magic rallied with a 36-point third quarter, including 15 points from Jameer Nelson to take the lead heading into the final quarter. Howard sank late free throws to help cap his 18-point, 12-rebound night, as the Magic drilled 12 three-pointers. The loss by the Lakers was their ninth in a row against the spread, as they would eventually drop another game ATS, before snapping that skid with a straight-up 'dog win at New Orleans. To be fair, the Lakers were favored by double-digits eight times during that 10-game stretch.
The second time around at Staples Center, the Magic were in the midst of one of the most impressive road trips in recent memory. Orlando won at San Antonio, Sacramento, Los Angeles and Denver in the span of a week. The Kings may stick out like a sore thumb in that group of teams, but the Magic drilled an NBA record 23 three-pointers in a 139-107 thrashing of Sacramento. Following that butt-kicking, the Magic traveled down I-5 and beat the Lakers 109-103 on Jan. 16. The Lakers lost as 4 1/2-point favorites, while the game stayed 'under' the total of 215. Once again, the Lakers squandered a halftime lead, this time giving away an eight-point lead at the intermission. Orlando exploded for 65 second-half points, and hit 12 shots from beyond the arc in total, helping the Magic to the six-point victory. Howard was dominant in the middle, grabbing 20 rebounds and scoring 25 points. Bryant compiled a triple-double, putting up 28 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists. The one constant in the two Orlando victories over Los Angeles, besides the terrific three-point shooting, was the Lakers shooting less than 41% from the floor in the two losses.
Gambling Notes
The Magic began the postseason covering four of their first 11 games, but Orlando has hit pointspread gold recently, cashing seven of their past eight tickets. Orlando will be catching points the first two in Los Angeles, as Van Gundy's team is 6-3 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs, with a 5-3 ATS mark in the road 'dog role. The Magic are 32-19 SU/ATS on the road this season, with a 16-6 ATS record as a road 'dog. Orlando is a solid 15-4 ATS when getting points on the road when coming off a SU win.
The Lakers have been a flip of the coin ATS this postseason, going 9-9 against the spread, with a 7-8 ATS mark as a favorite. Los Angeles is a money-burning 25-26 ATS as a home favorite, and 17-21 ATS as home 'chalk' coming off a win. The Lakers have barely profited on the road, covering 26 of 49 games, but keep an eye on the Purple and Gold as a road 'dog when the series shifts to Orlando, as L.A. is 9-2 ATS and 8-3 SU when getting points on the road.
Over the last decade, the team that hosted the first two games of the Finals has won the title eight times. The two teams in this stretch that went on the road to start the series and took home the title were the 2004 Pistons and the 2006 Heat. The Lakers have been a good fade in the first two games of the NBA Finals in the Jackson regime. Los Angeles is 2-7-1 ATS the first two games of the Finals their last five apperances dating back to 2000, including a 1-4 ATS mark in Finals openers.
Since the inception of 2-3-2 format in 1985, the home team has won the first two games 12 times, including each of the last four seasons. The task for Orlando to steal the first two games on the road will be difficult as that feat has been accompished only twice, with Chicago winning the opening two in Phoenix back in 1993, and Houston grabbing the first two in Orlando in 1995. Even if the Lakers split the first two games at home, they're still in good shape from a historic standpoint. Ten times since the 2-3-2 format began the home team has split the first two games, but in seven instances the home team still ended up winning the series. Winning the middle three games at home is never easy, as the '04 Pistons and '06 Heat are the only ones to accomplish that feat, something the Magic may be faced with assuming they don't win the first two at Staples.
Going into Game 1 on Thursday, the Lakers are a solid 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on at least three days rest, while the Magic are only 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Eight of the last 11 Finals series openers have finished 'under' the total, including last year's 'under' in Boston's 98-88 victory (total was set at 191.5).
Series Outlook
The Lakers were the favorite to win last year's series against the Celtics, only to lose in six games. It doesn't get easier this time around for L.A., battling an Orlando team that topped them twice this season. From a motivation standpoint, Bryant still wants to prove that he can win a title without the aid of Shaquille O'Neal. Jackson and Bryant have been here before, while the stage lights up for the first time for Van Gundy, Howard, and Lewis. Does that mean the Magic will be overwhelmed by the spotlight? No. To put things in proper perpective, the Magic needed seven games to beat a Celtics team without Kevin Garnett, while the argument is now valid that LeBron has very little supporting cast to win a championship. I'll take the Lakers to win this series in six games.
Future Bets
The Lakers come into the Finals as a -250 favorite to win the series (Bet $250 to win $100), while the Magic are +200 to win their first title (Bet $100 to win $200).
As far as exact games bets go, for the Lakers to sweep the series, the odds are 8/1, while L.A. is 6/1 to claim the title in five games. The 6/1 odds are interesting since the Lakers would need to win at least two road games in order to clinch in five. If you feel the Lakers will win in six or seven games, the odds are 5/2 (Bet $100 to win $250). On the Orlando side of things, for the Magic to sweep Kobe's Lakers, the odds are 23/1, while Orlando is 10/1 to take the series in five games. The payoff for the Magic to win the series in six or seven games is 9/1.
VegasInsider
By Kevin Rogers
**No. 1 Los Angeles vs. No. 3 Orlando**
Series Price: Los Angeles -250 Denver +200
Series Format: 2-3-2
Skinny
The NBA Finals is set, but it's not the dream matchup commissioner David Stern was hoping for. LeBron James will be sitting at home watching Kobe Bryant's Lakers battle Dwight Howard and the Magic. This is the second consecutive season Phil Jackson's team has advanced to the Finals, and the sixth Finals appearance for Bryant. Since 1991, Jackson has led his teams (Lakers and Bulls) to the Finals twelve times including this year, winning nine championships. On the flip side, Stan Van Gundy is making his first appearance as head coach in the Finals, after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals with Miami in 2005. The Magic are playing in their second NBA Finals in franchise history, after getting swept by the Houston Rockets in 1995.
The road to the championship is never easy, and the Magic and Lakers are certainly no exception. Orlando dropped the opener of their first round series to Philadelphia on a last-second shot by Andre Iguodala, but bounced back to capture four of the next five games, eliminating the Sixers. The Magic's next task was to eliminate the defending champion Celtics. Orlando split the first two games in Boston, then split the next two in Orlando to make the series a best-of-three. Boston overcame a 10-point deficit in the final five minutes of Game 5 at home to take a 3-2 series lead over Orlando, but the Magic grabbed a Game 6 victory at home, before blowing out the C's in Beantown in the deciding Game 7 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals against Cleveland. All Orlando needed was to win one game at Quicken Loans Arena, where the Cavaliers had lost two games all season, and that mandatory victory was the Game 1 win in which Rashard Lewis drilled a three-pointer to put the Magic ahead for good in the final seconds. LeBron's buzzer-beater in Game 2 gave Cleveland life, but Orlando won three of the next four, with all three wins coming at home to advance to the Finals.
The Lakers coasted through the first round, knocking out the Jazz in five games, with the lone defeat coming by two points. Los Angeles overcame a Game 1 home loss in the second round to Houston to down the Rockets in seven games, but it was one of the more odder series you will see. Six of the seven games were decided by at least 12 points, as the Rockets took the Lakers to the limit despite losing center Yao Ming for the final four games with an injured left foot. Bryant averaged 27.4 ppg in the first two series, but Kobe saved his best for last. Bryant scored 34 points a game in L.A.'s six-game series victory over Denver in the Western Conference Finals, including a 35-point, 10-assist effort in the series clinching win on Friday night.
The Magic swept the season series from the Lakers, taking both games by a combined nine points. Orlando topped Los Angeles on Dec. 20 at Amway Arena, 106-103 as 1 1/2-point underdogs, while eclisping the total of 205 1/2. The Lakers owned a nine-point lead at halftime, and were led by Bryant's game-high 41 points, but the Magic rallied with a 36-point third quarter, including 15 points from Jameer Nelson to take the lead heading into the final quarter. Howard sank late free throws to help cap his 18-point, 12-rebound night, as the Magic drilled 12 three-pointers. The loss by the Lakers was their ninth in a row against the spread, as they would eventually drop another game ATS, before snapping that skid with a straight-up 'dog win at New Orleans. To be fair, the Lakers were favored by double-digits eight times during that 10-game stretch.
The second time around at Staples Center, the Magic were in the midst of one of the most impressive road trips in recent memory. Orlando won at San Antonio, Sacramento, Los Angeles and Denver in the span of a week. The Kings may stick out like a sore thumb in that group of teams, but the Magic drilled an NBA record 23 three-pointers in a 139-107 thrashing of Sacramento. Following that butt-kicking, the Magic traveled down I-5 and beat the Lakers 109-103 on Jan. 16. The Lakers lost as 4 1/2-point favorites, while the game stayed 'under' the total of 215. Once again, the Lakers squandered a halftime lead, this time giving away an eight-point lead at the intermission. Orlando exploded for 65 second-half points, and hit 12 shots from beyond the arc in total, helping the Magic to the six-point victory. Howard was dominant in the middle, grabbing 20 rebounds and scoring 25 points. Bryant compiled a triple-double, putting up 28 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists. The one constant in the two Orlando victories over Los Angeles, besides the terrific three-point shooting, was the Lakers shooting less than 41% from the floor in the two losses.
Gambling Notes
The Magic began the postseason covering four of their first 11 games, but Orlando has hit pointspread gold recently, cashing seven of their past eight tickets. Orlando will be catching points the first two in Los Angeles, as Van Gundy's team is 6-3 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs, with a 5-3 ATS mark in the road 'dog role. The Magic are 32-19 SU/ATS on the road this season, with a 16-6 ATS record as a road 'dog. Orlando is a solid 15-4 ATS when getting points on the road when coming off a SU win.
The Lakers have been a flip of the coin ATS this postseason, going 9-9 against the spread, with a 7-8 ATS mark as a favorite. Los Angeles is a money-burning 25-26 ATS as a home favorite, and 17-21 ATS as home 'chalk' coming off a win. The Lakers have barely profited on the road, covering 26 of 49 games, but keep an eye on the Purple and Gold as a road 'dog when the series shifts to Orlando, as L.A. is 9-2 ATS and 8-3 SU when getting points on the road.
Over the last decade, the team that hosted the first two games of the Finals has won the title eight times. The two teams in this stretch that went on the road to start the series and took home the title were the 2004 Pistons and the 2006 Heat. The Lakers have been a good fade in the first two games of the NBA Finals in the Jackson regime. Los Angeles is 2-7-1 ATS the first two games of the Finals their last five apperances dating back to 2000, including a 1-4 ATS mark in Finals openers.
Since the inception of 2-3-2 format in 1985, the home team has won the first two games 12 times, including each of the last four seasons. The task for Orlando to steal the first two games on the road will be difficult as that feat has been accompished only twice, with Chicago winning the opening two in Phoenix back in 1993, and Houston grabbing the first two in Orlando in 1995. Even if the Lakers split the first two games at home, they're still in good shape from a historic standpoint. Ten times since the 2-3-2 format began the home team has split the first two games, but in seven instances the home team still ended up winning the series. Winning the middle three games at home is never easy, as the '04 Pistons and '06 Heat are the only ones to accomplish that feat, something the Magic may be faced with assuming they don't win the first two at Staples.
Going into Game 1 on Thursday, the Lakers are a solid 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on at least three days rest, while the Magic are only 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Eight of the last 11 Finals series openers have finished 'under' the total, including last year's 'under' in Boston's 98-88 victory (total was set at 191.5).
Series Outlook
The Lakers were the favorite to win last year's series against the Celtics, only to lose in six games. It doesn't get easier this time around for L.A., battling an Orlando team that topped them twice this season. From a motivation standpoint, Bryant still wants to prove that he can win a title without the aid of Shaquille O'Neal. Jackson and Bryant have been here before, while the stage lights up for the first time for Van Gundy, Howard, and Lewis. Does that mean the Magic will be overwhelmed by the spotlight? No. To put things in proper perpective, the Magic needed seven games to beat a Celtics team without Kevin Garnett, while the argument is now valid that LeBron has very little supporting cast to win a championship. I'll take the Lakers to win this series in six games.
Future Bets
The Lakers come into the Finals as a -250 favorite to win the series (Bet $250 to win $100), while the Magic are +200 to win their first title (Bet $100 to win $200).
As far as exact games bets go, for the Lakers to sweep the series, the odds are 8/1, while L.A. is 6/1 to claim the title in five games. The 6/1 odds are interesting since the Lakers would need to win at least two road games in order to clinch in five. If you feel the Lakers will win in six or seven games, the odds are 5/2 (Bet $100 to win $250). On the Orlando side of things, for the Magic to sweep Kobe's Lakers, the odds are 23/1, while Orlando is 10/1 to take the series in five games. The payoff for the Magic to win the series in six or seven games is 9/1.
VegasInsider
Orlando and Los Angeles Betting Trends
By: Craig Trapp
The NBA brass wanted the dream matchup Kobe vs Lebron but Orlando would have no part of it upsetting Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Championship. The Lakers will have the home court advantage but Orlando has overcame the advantage in the last two series. In the regular season Orlando swept the LA Lakers and also covered the spread in both games. Series prices have LA as a favorite at -260 and Orlando as underdog at +210. Game 1 line opens with LA as a 6 point favorite and the total of 206. Today Craig is going to breakdown the recent betting trends for the Magic and Lakers.
The Magic have been great against the spread going 7-1 the last eight games. Not only were they covering the spread but they were killing the spread covering by an average of 7 points. The over total has also been hot for Orlando as they have gone over 5 of last 6 games. Orlando was almost as big as underdog against Cleveland as they are against LA but obviously that won't discourage the Magic. For Orlando backers if you like there series price of +210 or +240 for game 1 there is great value in this super hot underdog team.
The Lakers have been the odds on favorite to win the NBA Championship since week 1 of the regular season. LA has not played consistently well throughout the playoffs which is definitely shown in Lakers spread record of 5-5 the last 10 games. But the Lakers have played much better the last 4 winning 3 of 4 games both straight up and against the line. The high powered Lakers have surprisingly been a great under totals play the last 10 games going 8-2. Not great betting value if you are an a LA backer but to be fair they have been about this price for a month. The value is definitely in the total if you think LA can continue to play shut down defense.
This series have two teams with opposite betting trends, so the real question starts for all handicappers. Can Orlando keep the hot three point shooting and force over totals and against the spread covers?? Can LA continue there defensive improvement and shut down Orlando's outside shooting?
By: Craig Trapp
The NBA brass wanted the dream matchup Kobe vs Lebron but Orlando would have no part of it upsetting Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Championship. The Lakers will have the home court advantage but Orlando has overcame the advantage in the last two series. In the regular season Orlando swept the LA Lakers and also covered the spread in both games. Series prices have LA as a favorite at -260 and Orlando as underdog at +210. Game 1 line opens with LA as a 6 point favorite and the total of 206. Today Craig is going to breakdown the recent betting trends for the Magic and Lakers.
The Magic have been great against the spread going 7-1 the last eight games. Not only were they covering the spread but they were killing the spread covering by an average of 7 points. The over total has also been hot for Orlando as they have gone over 5 of last 6 games. Orlando was almost as big as underdog against Cleveland as they are against LA but obviously that won't discourage the Magic. For Orlando backers if you like there series price of +210 or +240 for game 1 there is great value in this super hot underdog team.
The Lakers have been the odds on favorite to win the NBA Championship since week 1 of the regular season. LA has not played consistently well throughout the playoffs which is definitely shown in Lakers spread record of 5-5 the last 10 games. But the Lakers have played much better the last 4 winning 3 of 4 games both straight up and against the line. The high powered Lakers have surprisingly been a great under totals play the last 10 games going 8-2. Not great betting value if you are an a LA backer but to be fair they have been about this price for a month. The value is definitely in the total if you think LA can continue to play shut down defense.
This series have two teams with opposite betting trends, so the real question starts for all handicappers. Can Orlando keep the hot three point shooting and force over totals and against the spread covers?? Can LA continue there defensive improvement and shut down Orlando's outside shooting?
NBA Finals Preview - Magic vs. Lakers
By: Steve Merril
The NBA Finals begin this Thursday, June 4th in Los Angeles. Below is a look at some key numbers in the matchup between the Lakers and Magic.
16.7
This was the regular season scoring average for Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson who averaged 16.7 points in the 42 games he played in before injuring his shoulder against Dallas on February 2nd. Nelson was ruled out for the rest of the season after having surgery on February 19th, however the Magic’s extended playoff run has given him extra recovery time and the team might now activate him for the NBA Finals.
“It’s up in the air. We’ll see how Jameer looks the next few days,” said Orlando general manager Otis Smith. “There’s a litany of tests he'll have to pass. His health is the main thing. We’re not going to mortgage his future.”
2
Nelson’s status is important as he was the key factor in Orlando’s 2-0 regular season sweep of the Lakers. Nelson was the team’s leading scorer in both games with 27 points on December 20th and 28 points on January 16th. He was especially strong from three-point range, going 7-for-12 (58%) from beyond the arc.
Nelson is currently listed as questionable on the injury report. “Would I like to play? Of course. I’m a competitor,” Nelson said. “But I don’t want to do anything that would jeopardize me long-term.”
69
While Nelson’s numbers were impressive, the best player in the two regular season meetings was Kobe Bryant who led the Lakers in scoring in both games with a combined 69 points. This works out to 34.5 points per game which was above Kobe’s regular season average of just 26.8 points per game and his current playoff average of 29.6 ppg this spring.
103
The old adage that “defense wins championships” could easily be changed to “offense wins championships” as the Lakers are a perfect 9-0 straight-up in the playoffs this season when they score more than 103 points in a game and they are 2-1 straight-up the three times they’ve scored exactly 103 points. When scoring 102 points or less, the Lakers have gone just 1-5 straight-up and against the spread this postseason.
30
This is a complete mismatch from a historical perspective as the Lakers are now playing for their 15th championship in franchise history and they are appearing in their 30th NBA Finals. Meanwhile, this is only the second time in franchise history that the Magic are playing for the title. In fact, the Magic have only been in the league for 21 seasons after joining as an expansion team in 1989.
28
Dwight Howard has now achieved a double-double in 28 of his 32 career playoff games, including 17 of his 18 postseason games this year. The only game he failed to achieve a double-double was the Game 3 home win versus Cleveland in which Howard had 24 points, but only 9 rebounds. Overall, he leads the team in both scoring (21.7 ppg) and rebounding (15.4 rpg) this postseason.
By: Steve Merril
The NBA Finals begin this Thursday, June 4th in Los Angeles. Below is a look at some key numbers in the matchup between the Lakers and Magic.
16.7
This was the regular season scoring average for Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson who averaged 16.7 points in the 42 games he played in before injuring his shoulder against Dallas on February 2nd. Nelson was ruled out for the rest of the season after having surgery on February 19th, however the Magic’s extended playoff run has given him extra recovery time and the team might now activate him for the NBA Finals.
“It’s up in the air. We’ll see how Jameer looks the next few days,” said Orlando general manager Otis Smith. “There’s a litany of tests he'll have to pass. His health is the main thing. We’re not going to mortgage his future.”
2
Nelson’s status is important as he was the key factor in Orlando’s 2-0 regular season sweep of the Lakers. Nelson was the team’s leading scorer in both games with 27 points on December 20th and 28 points on January 16th. He was especially strong from three-point range, going 7-for-12 (58%) from beyond the arc.
Nelson is currently listed as questionable on the injury report. “Would I like to play? Of course. I’m a competitor,” Nelson said. “But I don’t want to do anything that would jeopardize me long-term.”
69
While Nelson’s numbers were impressive, the best player in the two regular season meetings was Kobe Bryant who led the Lakers in scoring in both games with a combined 69 points. This works out to 34.5 points per game which was above Kobe’s regular season average of just 26.8 points per game and his current playoff average of 29.6 ppg this spring.
103
The old adage that “defense wins championships” could easily be changed to “offense wins championships” as the Lakers are a perfect 9-0 straight-up in the playoffs this season when they score more than 103 points in a game and they are 2-1 straight-up the three times they’ve scored exactly 103 points. When scoring 102 points or less, the Lakers have gone just 1-5 straight-up and against the spread this postseason.
30
This is a complete mismatch from a historical perspective as the Lakers are now playing for their 15th championship in franchise history and they are appearing in their 30th NBA Finals. Meanwhile, this is only the second time in franchise history that the Magic are playing for the title. In fact, the Magic have only been in the league for 21 seasons after joining as an expansion team in 1989.
28
Dwight Howard has now achieved a double-double in 28 of his 32 career playoff games, including 17 of his 18 postseason games this year. The only game he failed to achieve a double-double was the Game 3 home win versus Cleveland in which Howard had 24 points, but only 9 rebounds. Overall, he leads the team in both scoring (21.7 ppg) and rebounding (15.4 rpg) this postseason.
NBA Finals Game 1 and Series Preview
By: Speculating Sports
This series is a very interesting match-up between two teams that have brought questionable efforts at times in the playoffs. They played each other twice this season, once in December and once in January. Orlando won both games, one at Los Angeles, and one at home. However, Jameer Nelson was a very key contributor in both games, so his absence could hurt the Magic’s chances. There are rumors about him possibly seeing playing time in this series, but his minutes won’t be much even if he does play. In fact, I think Nelson seeing any playing time would be a detriment to the Magic, as their rotation and minutes have been set throughout the playoffs. His addition would throw everyone off rhythm in my opinion, especially since Nelson would arguably be very rusty. One factor in this series, especially Game 1, could be the extended layoff between games. This series will be very spread out, and each team could come out sluggish in Game 1. They will be looking to see what adjustments and changes their opponents have made, and their offenses probably won’t be at their peak. A good play to consider might be a 1st half under selection, especially with such a high game total. From a series perspective, I would caution against loading up on the Lakers to win the series. The payout isn’t very good for the amount of risk involved. Orlando won both games against LA this season, and Dwight Howard will cause the Lakers problems down low. However, Los Angeles will have home court advantage, which prevents me from making a selection on Orlando. Overall I think Los Angeles will win this series if they can contain Orlando’s three point shooters, but the Magic’s three point sharp shooters make this series somewhat unpredictable. If they are hot from downtown, then they will win this series. However, the extended layoff between games may throw their three point shooting rhythm off, and Los Angeles has been able to shut down opposing teams three point shooters in the playoffs.
By: Speculating Sports
This series is a very interesting match-up between two teams that have brought questionable efforts at times in the playoffs. They played each other twice this season, once in December and once in January. Orlando won both games, one at Los Angeles, and one at home. However, Jameer Nelson was a very key contributor in both games, so his absence could hurt the Magic’s chances. There are rumors about him possibly seeing playing time in this series, but his minutes won’t be much even if he does play. In fact, I think Nelson seeing any playing time would be a detriment to the Magic, as their rotation and minutes have been set throughout the playoffs. His addition would throw everyone off rhythm in my opinion, especially since Nelson would arguably be very rusty. One factor in this series, especially Game 1, could be the extended layoff between games. This series will be very spread out, and each team could come out sluggish in Game 1. They will be looking to see what adjustments and changes their opponents have made, and their offenses probably won’t be at their peak. A good play to consider might be a 1st half under selection, especially with such a high game total. From a series perspective, I would caution against loading up on the Lakers to win the series. The payout isn’t very good for the amount of risk involved. Orlando won both games against LA this season, and Dwight Howard will cause the Lakers problems down low. However, Los Angeles will have home court advantage, which prevents me from making a selection on Orlando. Overall I think Los Angeles will win this series if they can contain Orlando’s three point shooters, but the Magic’s three point sharp shooters make this series somewhat unpredictable. If they are hot from downtown, then they will win this series. However, the extended layoff between games may throw their three point shooting rhythm off, and Los Angeles has been able to shut down opposing teams three point shooters in the playoffs.
NBA Finals Preview and Pick
By ASHTON GREWAL
Orlando Magic (+240) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-260): Matchup stats and trends
Remember that sticker Dwight Howard plastered three feet high on the backboard in the 2007 dunk contest? The NBA might want to ask Howard if they can use some of those to cover up LeBron James’ face in all their artwork for the 2009 NBA Finals.
Yes, Superman and the Magic made me – and a few other ignorant fools – look silly by easily dispelling of the league’s best regular season team and, up to the conference finals, best postseason team.
Orlando has knocked off the defending champs and the prematurely appointed 2009 champs in successive rounds. Pretty impressive for a club coached by a man who’s been accused of breathing into a paper bag during crunch time.
Can the Magic actually pull off the hat trick and hoist the NBA title in two weeks’ time?
Let’s break down all the categories and see where we stand afterwards:
Point guard
Rafer Alston is playing better than even Orlando GM Otis Smith could have hoped for. He’s doing a great job limiting turnovers and, at the same time, still pushing the pace to get good looks in transition for the open 3-pointer.
Backup Anthony Johnson doesn’t do anything to hurt you coming off the bench, but the Magic’s real strength is their ability to hand the point position over to small forward Hedo Turkoglu in the fourth quarter.
All that we’ve seen for the Lakers point guards is that Derek Fisher will be out of the league in a year’s time and Jordan Farmer has a bad case of nerves. (Have you seen all the silly travels he’s been called for? It’s a classic case of someone trying too hard and thinking too much at the same time.)
I like what a see from Shannon Brown, but he really shouldn’t play more than 15 or 20 minutes a game.
Edge: Orlando
Shooting guard
Do I really have to write anything here? Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee/Mickael Pietrus?
No contest.
Edge: Lakers
Small forward
As much as you have to love the improvement Trevor Ariza has made to his game, especially his shooting touch, the Magic’s versatility at this position gives them the lead.
Edge: Magic
Big men
This is a tough one.
You know what you’ve got with the Lakers. Pau Gasol is a stud while Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom’s production comes in peaks and valleys.
Dwight Howard was an unstoppable force in the East finals against Cleveland, but the Celtics made him look like a mediocre star (at best) in the previous series.
Howard should do a good job defending Gasol in the low block but I expect Phil Jackson will foresee this and have his All-Star big man catch the ball in the high post.
This will limit Howard’s ability to block shots and at the same time allow Gasol to showcase his passing skills.
Rashard Lewis presents a different type of challenge. I thought Odom’s length would be used to guard Carmelo Anthony but Jackson left that task to Ariza and Bryant.
When the Lakers go with Gasol and Odom in the frontcourt, Gasol won’t have much – if any help guarding Howard. Odom will have to respect the shooting prowess of Lewis, who lives around the 3-point arc.
If Howard hits his free throws like he did in Game 6 against the Cavs (12 for 16), Orlando gets the check mark in this department. Since I don’t think he’ll continue to shoot at 75 percent clip, I’ll give a mini advantage to the Lakers in a near toss up category.
Edge: Lakers
Intangibles
Phil Jackson gets the nod in the coaching department. I love Stan Van Gundy’s tenacity but Phil’s rings speak for themselves. (If you get close enough to them you can hear them faintly saying, "Kiss me.")
The Lakers’ bench production – or lack thereof – has been an issue all season long. Pietrus, Johnson and Marcin Gortat aren’t household names but they do their jobs when they get on the court.
The leadership and experience factor is where I lean heavily towards the Lakers. Los Angeles went to the Finals last year and lost as favorites to the Celtics. Bryant may not be a great teammate but he commands the attention and respect of his mates in the huddle.
There’s no question the players wearing the Purple and Gold fear Kobe’s glares and tongue lashings like they fear their mama’s wooden spoon.
Edge: Lakers
Alright the home-court advantage, leadership and experience make the Lakers the right choice. Naysayers will quickly point out that the Magic won both regular season meetings against L.A., but don’t forget that injured Magic point guard Jameer Nelson was a big factor in both those games.
Van Gundy has really impressed me with his play calling coming out of timeouts. The Magic normally always get good looks on their offensive possessions late in games.
Still, the Lakers have the second best closer I’ve ever seen spin a Spalding.
Pick: Lakers in seven
By ASHTON GREWAL
Orlando Magic (+240) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-260): Matchup stats and trends
Remember that sticker Dwight Howard plastered three feet high on the backboard in the 2007 dunk contest? The NBA might want to ask Howard if they can use some of those to cover up LeBron James’ face in all their artwork for the 2009 NBA Finals.
Yes, Superman and the Magic made me – and a few other ignorant fools – look silly by easily dispelling of the league’s best regular season team and, up to the conference finals, best postseason team.
Orlando has knocked off the defending champs and the prematurely appointed 2009 champs in successive rounds. Pretty impressive for a club coached by a man who’s been accused of breathing into a paper bag during crunch time.
Can the Magic actually pull off the hat trick and hoist the NBA title in two weeks’ time?
Let’s break down all the categories and see where we stand afterwards:
Point guard
Rafer Alston is playing better than even Orlando GM Otis Smith could have hoped for. He’s doing a great job limiting turnovers and, at the same time, still pushing the pace to get good looks in transition for the open 3-pointer.
Backup Anthony Johnson doesn’t do anything to hurt you coming off the bench, but the Magic’s real strength is their ability to hand the point position over to small forward Hedo Turkoglu in the fourth quarter.
All that we’ve seen for the Lakers point guards is that Derek Fisher will be out of the league in a year’s time and Jordan Farmer has a bad case of nerves. (Have you seen all the silly travels he’s been called for? It’s a classic case of someone trying too hard and thinking too much at the same time.)
I like what a see from Shannon Brown, but he really shouldn’t play more than 15 or 20 minutes a game.
Edge: Orlando
Shooting guard
Do I really have to write anything here? Kobe Bryant vs. Courtney Lee/Mickael Pietrus?
No contest.
Edge: Lakers
Small forward
As much as you have to love the improvement Trevor Ariza has made to his game, especially his shooting touch, the Magic’s versatility at this position gives them the lead.
Edge: Magic
Big men
This is a tough one.
You know what you’ve got with the Lakers. Pau Gasol is a stud while Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom’s production comes in peaks and valleys.
Dwight Howard was an unstoppable force in the East finals against Cleveland, but the Celtics made him look like a mediocre star (at best) in the previous series.
Howard should do a good job defending Gasol in the low block but I expect Phil Jackson will foresee this and have his All-Star big man catch the ball in the high post.
This will limit Howard’s ability to block shots and at the same time allow Gasol to showcase his passing skills.
Rashard Lewis presents a different type of challenge. I thought Odom’s length would be used to guard Carmelo Anthony but Jackson left that task to Ariza and Bryant.
When the Lakers go with Gasol and Odom in the frontcourt, Gasol won’t have much – if any help guarding Howard. Odom will have to respect the shooting prowess of Lewis, who lives around the 3-point arc.
If Howard hits his free throws like he did in Game 6 against the Cavs (12 for 16), Orlando gets the check mark in this department. Since I don’t think he’ll continue to shoot at 75 percent clip, I’ll give a mini advantage to the Lakers in a near toss up category.
Edge: Lakers
Intangibles
Phil Jackson gets the nod in the coaching department. I love Stan Van Gundy’s tenacity but Phil’s rings speak for themselves. (If you get close enough to them you can hear them faintly saying, "Kiss me.")
The Lakers’ bench production – or lack thereof – has been an issue all season long. Pietrus, Johnson and Marcin Gortat aren’t household names but they do their jobs when they get on the court.
The leadership and experience factor is where I lean heavily towards the Lakers. Los Angeles went to the Finals last year and lost as favorites to the Celtics. Bryant may not be a great teammate but he commands the attention and respect of his mates in the huddle.
There’s no question the players wearing the Purple and Gold fear Kobe’s glares and tongue lashings like they fear their mama’s wooden spoon.
Edge: Lakers
Alright the home-court advantage, leadership and experience make the Lakers the right choice. Naysayers will quickly point out that the Magic won both regular season meetings against L.A., but don’t forget that injured Magic point guard Jameer Nelson was a big factor in both those games.
Van Gundy has really impressed me with his play calling coming out of timeouts. The Magic normally always get good looks on their offensive possessions late in games.
Still, the Lakers have the second best closer I’ve ever seen spin a Spalding.
Pick: Lakers in seven
Disney World vs. Disneyland
By Sportspic
Orlando winning the Eastern Conference Finals series 4-2 sending James and the Cavaliers into summer storage may have wrecked the much anticipated Kobe-LeBron NBA dream finals but we do get an all Disney Finals featuring Orlando's monster of the midway Dwight Howard and Kobe.
Magic got their shot on the big stage winning 12-of-19 (11-8 ATS) playoff games. Split between 7-2 (6-3 ATS) at home, 5-5 (5-5 ATS) on the highway the Magic managed 98.5 PPG while surrendering 93.7 PPG. Orlando shy in post season experience the past five+ years enter the finals 17-16 (17-15-1 ATS) it's last thirty-three winning 11-of-16 (9-7 ATS) on home court, 6-of-17 (8-8-1 ATS) on the road.
Lakers took eighteen games to reach their second consecutive finals winning 8-of-10 (5-5 ATS) at Staples Center, 4-of-8 on the highway (4-4 ATS). Kobe and company have put up 102.9 PPG thus far surrendering 96.2 PPG. Lakers are now 43-30 (34-37-2 ATS) it's last seventy-three in post season including a powerful 31-6 at home (19-17-1 ATS) but a miserable 12-24 (15-20-1 ATS) traveling.
The Magician's of Orlando will be a tricky bunch for the Lakers, keep in mind it didn't matter who the Lakers had against the Magic this season, Orlando won 106-103 at home as 1.5 point underdogs in December despite 41 points from Bryant, then pulled out a 109-103 victory at the Staples Center as 4.5 point dogs in January behind Superman's 25 points, 20 rebounds.
For those keeping track of home team wins this post season, they're 54-26 along with a 41-37-2 mark at the betting window winning by 4.2 points per game. Home favorites of -6.5 or less posted a 21-22-1 ATS mark with a winning margin of 2.93 PPG.
Final note: The past five NBA Finals home teams were 21-7 (17-11 ATS) with 6.5 or less point faves 14-3 (12-5 ATS) defeating visitors by 11.1 PPG
Sportsbooks have made the experienced Lakers 6-point favorites for game one on Thursday.
By Sportspic
Orlando winning the Eastern Conference Finals series 4-2 sending James and the Cavaliers into summer storage may have wrecked the much anticipated Kobe-LeBron NBA dream finals but we do get an all Disney Finals featuring Orlando's monster of the midway Dwight Howard and Kobe.
Magic got their shot on the big stage winning 12-of-19 (11-8 ATS) playoff games. Split between 7-2 (6-3 ATS) at home, 5-5 (5-5 ATS) on the highway the Magic managed 98.5 PPG while surrendering 93.7 PPG. Orlando shy in post season experience the past five+ years enter the finals 17-16 (17-15-1 ATS) it's last thirty-three winning 11-of-16 (9-7 ATS) on home court, 6-of-17 (8-8-1 ATS) on the road.
Lakers took eighteen games to reach their second consecutive finals winning 8-of-10 (5-5 ATS) at Staples Center, 4-of-8 on the highway (4-4 ATS). Kobe and company have put up 102.9 PPG thus far surrendering 96.2 PPG. Lakers are now 43-30 (34-37-2 ATS) it's last seventy-three in post season including a powerful 31-6 at home (19-17-1 ATS) but a miserable 12-24 (15-20-1 ATS) traveling.
The Magician's of Orlando will be a tricky bunch for the Lakers, keep in mind it didn't matter who the Lakers had against the Magic this season, Orlando won 106-103 at home as 1.5 point underdogs in December despite 41 points from Bryant, then pulled out a 109-103 victory at the Staples Center as 4.5 point dogs in January behind Superman's 25 points, 20 rebounds.
For those keeping track of home team wins this post season, they're 54-26 along with a 41-37-2 mark at the betting window winning by 4.2 points per game. Home favorites of -6.5 or less posted a 21-22-1 ATS mark with a winning margin of 2.93 PPG.
Final note: The past five NBA Finals home teams were 21-7 (17-11 ATS) with 6.5 or less point faves 14-3 (12-5 ATS) defeating visitors by 11.1 PPG
Sportsbooks have made the experienced Lakers 6-point favorites for game one on Thursday.
Lakers-Magic Game 1 Outlook
By Matt Fargo
Orlando Matchup Advantage Again?
Los Angeles is 8-2 at home in the playoffs, adding to its 36-5 record at home during the regular season. One of those home losses came against Orlando and as a matter of fact, the Lakers were swept by the Magic this season. This is sounding awfully familiar to the scenario that Orlando had against Cleveland as it dominated the Cavaliers this season due to advantages across the floor.
Cleveland did not have a supporting cast to go along with LeBron James but the Lakers in fact do have a much better balanced team than the Cavaliers. The Lakers also have Andrew Bynum who can give Dwight Howard some trouble and overall, the Lakers are a much better rebounding team than Orlando, especially on the offensive end. The two losses by the Lakers during the regular season can be attributed to bad shooting as they shot only 40.6 percent (73-180) from the floor.
Teams make adjustments and there will no doubt be adjustments made by one of the games greatest coaches ever in Phil Jackson. The most recent of those victories came almost five months ago and regular season wins can mean little. You can ask the Cavaliers if that holds true. However, Orlando is playing with a ton of confidence and that cannot be discounted.
Tinsel Town Experience
We all know the history of the Lakers and how they have won 14 World Championships throughout the years. However that is not the experience I am referring to. The Lakers were in the NBA Finals last season and that alone is worth some value for Los Angeles. The fact that it lost to the Celtics four games to two put a bad taste in the mouths of the team and making matters worse was the 39-point drubbing in the closeout game.
All NBA teams that are in the Finals are not going to go out without a fight but something says that the Lakers are going to be more focused because of what happened last season as they are out to prove something. In last year’s NBA Finals, Kobe Bryant didn’t play particularly well, averaging 25.7 ppg which is solid but it came on less than 41 percent shooting which is far from good.
“It makes you tougher,” said Bryant of this year’s playoff mediocrity and last season’s championship loss. “It makes you have to dig deep. ... You deal with the controversy and the criticism. All those things make you a better team.” It's quite possible this young Orlando team will be a little awed on the game's biggest stage, especially having to open twice in Los Angeles.
The Nelson Effect
It looks as though Jameer Nelson will be in uniform for Orlando for the NBA Finals. Does that make the Magic a better team now? I personally do not think so. His backup Rafer Alston played a great series against Cleveland so any change of chemistry that won that series is a bad move on the part of the Magic. Not to mention, Nelson will be way behind in regard to timing, shooting and overall continuity with his team.
I say if he actually does play, it will benefit the Lakers more than Orlando in this first game. He has already added some fuel to the fire. “I'm not saying I'm any tougher or stronger than anybody, but I've been known to do some amazing things sometimes,” he said. His leadership will no doubt be beneficial but it is highly unlikely he can repeat what he did during the regular season.
A lot of people are looking at the numbers he put up in the regular season in two games against Los Angeles. Nelson led the Magic in both games, averaging 27.5 ppg while shooting a combined 20-34 from the field including 7-12 from beyond the three-point line. The rest he has had will mean fresh legs but it also means poor stamina. As far as rest goes, the Lakers needed it and got it and playing only their 2nd game in seven days this season, they are 8-1 ATS.
By Matt Fargo
Orlando Matchup Advantage Again?
Los Angeles is 8-2 at home in the playoffs, adding to its 36-5 record at home during the regular season. One of those home losses came against Orlando and as a matter of fact, the Lakers were swept by the Magic this season. This is sounding awfully familiar to the scenario that Orlando had against Cleveland as it dominated the Cavaliers this season due to advantages across the floor.
Cleveland did not have a supporting cast to go along with LeBron James but the Lakers in fact do have a much better balanced team than the Cavaliers. The Lakers also have Andrew Bynum who can give Dwight Howard some trouble and overall, the Lakers are a much better rebounding team than Orlando, especially on the offensive end. The two losses by the Lakers during the regular season can be attributed to bad shooting as they shot only 40.6 percent (73-180) from the floor.
Teams make adjustments and there will no doubt be adjustments made by one of the games greatest coaches ever in Phil Jackson. The most recent of those victories came almost five months ago and regular season wins can mean little. You can ask the Cavaliers if that holds true. However, Orlando is playing with a ton of confidence and that cannot be discounted.
Tinsel Town Experience
We all know the history of the Lakers and how they have won 14 World Championships throughout the years. However that is not the experience I am referring to. The Lakers were in the NBA Finals last season and that alone is worth some value for Los Angeles. The fact that it lost to the Celtics four games to two put a bad taste in the mouths of the team and making matters worse was the 39-point drubbing in the closeout game.
All NBA teams that are in the Finals are not going to go out without a fight but something says that the Lakers are going to be more focused because of what happened last season as they are out to prove something. In last year’s NBA Finals, Kobe Bryant didn’t play particularly well, averaging 25.7 ppg which is solid but it came on less than 41 percent shooting which is far from good.
“It makes you tougher,” said Bryant of this year’s playoff mediocrity and last season’s championship loss. “It makes you have to dig deep. ... You deal with the controversy and the criticism. All those things make you a better team.” It's quite possible this young Orlando team will be a little awed on the game's biggest stage, especially having to open twice in Los Angeles.
The Nelson Effect
It looks as though Jameer Nelson will be in uniform for Orlando for the NBA Finals. Does that make the Magic a better team now? I personally do not think so. His backup Rafer Alston played a great series against Cleveland so any change of chemistry that won that series is a bad move on the part of the Magic. Not to mention, Nelson will be way behind in regard to timing, shooting and overall continuity with his team.
I say if he actually does play, it will benefit the Lakers more than Orlando in this first game. He has already added some fuel to the fire. “I'm not saying I'm any tougher or stronger than anybody, but I've been known to do some amazing things sometimes,” he said. His leadership will no doubt be beneficial but it is highly unlikely he can repeat what he did during the regular season.
A lot of people are looking at the numbers he put up in the regular season in two games against Los Angeles. Nelson led the Magic in both games, averaging 27.5 ppg while shooting a combined 20-34 from the field including 7-12 from beyond the three-point line. The rest he has had will mean fresh legs but it also means poor stamina. As far as rest goes, the Lakers needed it and got it and playing only their 2nd game in seven days this season, they are 8-1 ATS.
Marc Lawrence
Thursday 6/4
Play On: Chicago Cubs w/Zambrano
Note: The Cubs send Carlos Zambrano to the mound against the Braves in the finale of this 3-game series in Atlanta tonight knowing they have come up winners in eight of Zambrano's last nine road starts. With Zambrano 6-2 in his last eight road starts in June, look for Atlanta to fall to 1-5 on Thursdays here tonight.
Thursday 6/4
Play On: Chicago Cubs w/Zambrano
Note: The Cubs send Carlos Zambrano to the mound against the Braves in the finale of this 3-game series in Atlanta tonight knowing they have come up winners in eight of Zambrano's last nine road starts. With Zambrano 6-2 in his last eight road starts in June, look for Atlanta to fall to 1-5 on Thursdays here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins Jun 4 2009 1:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The over is 12-4 in the Indians last 16 road games. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home % better than 600. The over is 6-2 in their last 8 divisional games. Carmona's on the mound and he takes his 6.60 ERA with him. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 10.32 and all 3 games have played the over. The over is 7-0 in his alst starts as a dog. The over is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games as a favorite between -150-200. Baker's ERA on the season is 6.32. The over is 8-3 in Baker's last 11 home starts. The over is 10-2 in his last 12 starts vs. divsional opponents. Play the over.
Game: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins Jun 4 2009 1:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The over is 12-4 in the Indians last 16 road games. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home % better than 600. The over is 6-2 in their last 8 divisional games. Carmona's on the mound and he takes his 6.60 ERA with him. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 10.32 and all 3 games have played the over. The over is 7-0 in his alst starts as a dog. The over is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games as a favorite between -150-200. Baker's ERA on the season is 6.32. The over is 8-3 in Baker's last 11 home starts. The over is 10-2 in his last 12 starts vs. divsional opponents. Play the over.
Cajun Sports MLB 2*
Date/Time: Thursday June 4 / 1:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers +125
Detroit will look to rebound from a 2-0 deficit in this series versus the Red Sox who got a solid performance from Josh Beckett as he carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning getting the 10 to 5 win on Wednesday night at Comerica Park. That came on the heels of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first win of the season on Tuesday as the Sox defeated the Tigers 5 to 1. The Red Sox will send Tim Wakefield to the bump with a record of 6-3 W/L an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.421. Wakefield has struggled on the highway with a record of 3-3 W/L an ERA of 5.70 and a WHIP of 1.596. Boston is 8-17 W/L their last 25 when Wakefield starts on the road, 3-7 W/L his last 10 when he is a road favorite, 6-17 W/L their last 23 when facing a team with a winning record and 8-20 W/L when he faces a winning team on the highway. The Tigers will hang their hopes of one win in this series on Dontrelle Willis who is 1-2 W/L on the year with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.588. Willis has pitched well when starting at home although he is only 1-1 W/L on the season but has an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.077. In 13 innings of work at Comerica Park he has given up only 3 earned runs on eight hits. His most recent start came in a loss to Colorado where he pitched 6.7 innings giving up three earned runs on seven hits in a 3 to 1 loss. Willis’s only other home start came against Texas and he got the win pitching 6.3 innings giving up no runs on one hit in a 4 to 0 win back on May 19th. Our Pitcher Performance Index projects we will see that Dontrelle Willis in today’s game and that is one of the reasons we are backing the host in an afternoon start in the Motor City. Detroit is 14-4 W/L +9.4 units in day games this season. Boston is 30-42 (-15.0 Units) in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game the last 2 seasons. The Red Sox are also active in a play against system that tells us to Play AGAINST MLB road teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game on the year versus an opponent whose starting pitcher is working on at least five days rest, 60-40 W/L the last three years for +15.6 units of profit when playing against these teams. We are backing the host as the Tigers steal one game in this series and cash the winning ticket for us on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park.
Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers 2 Boston Red Sox 1
Date/Time: Thursday June 4 / 1:05PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers +125
Detroit will look to rebound from a 2-0 deficit in this series versus the Red Sox who got a solid performance from Josh Beckett as he carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning getting the 10 to 5 win on Wednesday night at Comerica Park. That came on the heels of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first win of the season on Tuesday as the Sox defeated the Tigers 5 to 1. The Red Sox will send Tim Wakefield to the bump with a record of 6-3 W/L an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.421. Wakefield has struggled on the highway with a record of 3-3 W/L an ERA of 5.70 and a WHIP of 1.596. Boston is 8-17 W/L their last 25 when Wakefield starts on the road, 3-7 W/L his last 10 when he is a road favorite, 6-17 W/L their last 23 when facing a team with a winning record and 8-20 W/L when he faces a winning team on the highway. The Tigers will hang their hopes of one win in this series on Dontrelle Willis who is 1-2 W/L on the year with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.588. Willis has pitched well when starting at home although he is only 1-1 W/L on the season but has an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.077. In 13 innings of work at Comerica Park he has given up only 3 earned runs on eight hits. His most recent start came in a loss to Colorado where he pitched 6.7 innings giving up three earned runs on seven hits in a 3 to 1 loss. Willis’s only other home start came against Texas and he got the win pitching 6.3 innings giving up no runs on one hit in a 4 to 0 win back on May 19th. Our Pitcher Performance Index projects we will see that Dontrelle Willis in today’s game and that is one of the reasons we are backing the host in an afternoon start in the Motor City. Detroit is 14-4 W/L +9.4 units in day games this season. Boston is 30-42 (-15.0 Units) in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game the last 2 seasons. The Red Sox are also active in a play against system that tells us to Play AGAINST MLB road teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game on the year versus an opponent whose starting pitcher is working on at least five days rest, 60-40 W/L the last three years for +15.6 units of profit when playing against these teams. We are backing the host as the Tigers steal one game in this series and cash the winning ticket for us on Thursday afternoon at Comerica Park.
Graded Selection: 2* Detroit Tigers 2 Boston Red Sox 1
Vernon Croy
Take the Milwaukee Brewers on the Moneyline, We are getting solid value here with the Brewers Thursday night who have Dave Bush (3-1, 4.38 ERA) on the mound. Bush has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 3.42 over 4 starts and the Brewers are 7-1 in his last 8 starts. The Brewers are 13-3 in Bush's last 16 starts against a team with a losing record and they are a perfect 7-0 in Bush's last 7 starts on a grass field. The Marlins are just 1-11 in their last 12 games in game 4 of a series and they are just 7-21 in their last 28 games against a right hand starter. Josh Johnson (4-1, 2.66 ERA) struggled to find the strike zone in his last start against the Brewers back on May.14 walking 5 batters while lasting just 4 innings and I look for the Brewers bats to stay hot after scoring 9 last night. Take the Milwaukee Brewers
Take the Milwaukee Brewers on the Moneyline, We are getting solid value here with the Brewers Thursday night who have Dave Bush (3-1, 4.38 ERA) on the mound. Bush has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 3.42 over 4 starts and the Brewers are 7-1 in his last 8 starts. The Brewers are 13-3 in Bush's last 16 starts against a team with a losing record and they are a perfect 7-0 in Bush's last 7 starts on a grass field. The Marlins are just 1-11 in their last 12 games in game 4 of a series and they are just 7-21 in their last 28 games against a right hand starter. Josh Johnson (4-1, 2.66 ERA) struggled to find the strike zone in his last start against the Brewers back on May.14 walking 5 batters while lasting just 4 innings and I look for the Brewers bats to stay hot after scoring 9 last night. Take the Milwaukee Brewers
Sports Gambling Hotline
NBA Finals tonight, and we will play the opening game of this best-of-seven series UNDER the posted total.
Our feeling is the down time the last few days for both teams will see both the Magic, and the Lakers get out of the gate a little slow in this game, helping limit the early points - thus making the OVER that much harder to get to.
The Lakers are on an 8-2 UNDER roll their last 10 postseason games, including their last 5 played at the Staples Center, and LA is also 27-9 UNDER the posted price their last 36 games when laying points.
Finally, 4 of the last 5 series meetings played in Tinsel Town have held LOW.
We will ride the trends, and play the UNDER in Game One of the NBA Finals.
Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER
NBA Finals tonight, and we will play the opening game of this best-of-seven series UNDER the posted total.
Our feeling is the down time the last few days for both teams will see both the Magic, and the Lakers get out of the gate a little slow in this game, helping limit the early points - thus making the OVER that much harder to get to.
The Lakers are on an 8-2 UNDER roll their last 10 postseason games, including their last 5 played at the Staples Center, and LA is also 27-9 UNDER the posted price their last 36 games when laying points.
Finally, 4 of the last 5 series meetings played in Tinsel Town have held LOW.
We will ride the trends, and play the UNDER in Game One of the NBA Finals.
Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER
Steve Merril
The Mets have lost two straight and may benefit from the rainout on Wednesday as they wrap up their series in Pittsburgh with the Pirates this afternoon. New York figures to have Carlos Beltran in the lineup after dealing with an illness that may have affected John Maine too. Beltran will help a Mets lineup that has struggled to score. Mike Pelfrey goes for New York and he's 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA this season. Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts and is going against a Pirates team that he beat 2-1 last season in Pittsburgh. In that game he gave up seven hits in seven innings and no earned runs. He managed to hold Freddy Sanchez (0-3), Ryan Doumit (0-3) and Jack Wilson (0-2) hitless in that one and will not have to deal with Nate McLouth who is now an Atlanta Brave.
Pittsburgh sends Ross Ohlendorf to the hill where he's 5-5 with a 4.45 ERA on the season. In his last 3 starts he is 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA, getting touched up by the Astros, White Sox, and Nationals for at least four runs in each outing. He has never started against the Mets, but they’ve managed to hit .727 against him in 11 at-bats. Luis Castillo (2-2) and David Wright (2-2) remain perfect versus the righthander.
The Mets have lost two straight and may benefit from the rainout on Wednesday as they wrap up their series in Pittsburgh with the Pirates this afternoon. New York figures to have Carlos Beltran in the lineup after dealing with an illness that may have affected John Maine too. Beltran will help a Mets lineup that has struggled to score. Mike Pelfrey goes for New York and he's 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA this season. Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last three starts and is going against a Pirates team that he beat 2-1 last season in Pittsburgh. In that game he gave up seven hits in seven innings and no earned runs. He managed to hold Freddy Sanchez (0-3), Ryan Doumit (0-3) and Jack Wilson (0-2) hitless in that one and will not have to deal with Nate McLouth who is now an Atlanta Brave.
Pittsburgh sends Ross Ohlendorf to the hill where he's 5-5 with a 4.45 ERA on the season. In his last 3 starts he is 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA, getting touched up by the Astros, White Sox, and Nationals for at least four runs in each outing. He has never started against the Mets, but they’ve managed to hit .727 against him in 11 at-bats. Luis Castillo (2-2) and David Wright (2-2) remain perfect versus the righthander.
Bobby Maxwell
It's a battle between a couple of southpaws tonight in Los Angeles as the Phillies put Cole Hamels (3-2, 5.21 ERA) on the hill against the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (3-3, 4.34). We'll play the home team in this one with Kershaw outdueling the Phils in a low-scoring contest.
Kershaw has a 1.12 ERA at home this season in 24 innings and he's allowed one run or less in each of his four home outings this year. Last time he threw in front of the home fans he held the Angels to one run on four hits in five innings.
Hamels got hammered in his last start, giving up six runs on eight hits in six innings on Saturday in Philadelphia against the Nationals.
The Dodgers took two of three from the Phillies in mid-May and they will get the opener of this four-game set. Los Angeles has won six of the last eight played between these two in California and the Dodgers continue to be red-hot at home. They beat the D'Backs 1-0 on Thursday and have now gone 40-14 in their last 54 at home.
Los Angeles is on further streaks of 36-17 overall, 4-0 against N.L. East teams, 21-8 against southpaws and 43-13 as a home favorite.
The home team has won 12 of the last 16 matchups between these two and you can expect the host to get another here tonight. Play the Dodgers.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
It's a battle between a couple of southpaws tonight in Los Angeles as the Phillies put Cole Hamels (3-2, 5.21 ERA) on the hill against the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (3-3, 4.34). We'll play the home team in this one with Kershaw outdueling the Phils in a low-scoring contest.
Kershaw has a 1.12 ERA at home this season in 24 innings and he's allowed one run or less in each of his four home outings this year. Last time he threw in front of the home fans he held the Angels to one run on four hits in five innings.
Hamels got hammered in his last start, giving up six runs on eight hits in six innings on Saturday in Philadelphia against the Nationals.
The Dodgers took two of three from the Phillies in mid-May and they will get the opener of this four-game set. Los Angeles has won six of the last eight played between these two in California and the Dodgers continue to be red-hot at home. They beat the D'Backs 1-0 on Thursday and have now gone 40-14 in their last 54 at home.
Los Angeles is on further streaks of 36-17 overall, 4-0 against N.L. East teams, 21-8 against southpaws and 43-13 as a home favorite.
The home team has won 12 of the last 16 matchups between these two and you can expect the host to get another here tonight. Play the Dodgers.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Karl Garrett
After a rain out last night, I will come right back and back the Mets today in the series wrap up with the Pirates this Thursday.
New York may be depleted offensively, but I have a feeling that Mike Pelfrey may only need 2 runs tonight to pitch the Metropolitans to the victory.
Pelfrey has allowed just 5 runs over his last 21 innings, but is 0-1 to show for his solid work. For the year, the right-hander is 4-1 with a decent 3.88 ERA. His lone start last year against the Bucs was 7 scoreless frames in a win, and I can see him doing it again today.
Russ Ohlendorf looks like he has hit a bump in the road, as he is 0-2 his last 2 trips to the hill, allowing 7 runs over his last 13 innings of work.
The Mets were 5-2 the previous 2 seasons at PNC Park before this surprising Pirates uprising, look for New York to right the ship today with the win.
2♦ NY METS
After a rain out last night, I will come right back and back the Mets today in the series wrap up with the Pirates this Thursday.
New York may be depleted offensively, but I have a feeling that Mike Pelfrey may only need 2 runs tonight to pitch the Metropolitans to the victory.
Pelfrey has allowed just 5 runs over his last 21 innings, but is 0-1 to show for his solid work. For the year, the right-hander is 4-1 with a decent 3.88 ERA. His lone start last year against the Bucs was 7 scoreless frames in a win, and I can see him doing it again today.
Russ Ohlendorf looks like he has hit a bump in the road, as he is 0-2 his last 2 trips to the hill, allowing 7 runs over his last 13 innings of work.
The Mets were 5-2 the previous 2 seasons at PNC Park before this surprising Pirates uprising, look for New York to right the ship today with the win.
2♦ NY METS
Michael Cannon
Take the Rangers as the big road dog this afternoon over the Yankees.
I know the Yankees lineup is one of the most formidable in all of baseball, and it’s even more amplified playing in the sandbox that is the new Yankees Stadium. But Brandon McCarthy and the Rangers are doing pretty well themselves and this price is way too high with Chien-Ming Wang going for the pinstripes.
McCarthy is 5-2 on the year with a 4.35 ERA. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts.
Wang started the year by getting lit up like a Christmas Tree. His recent return to the roster included a three-inning scoreless stint out of the bullpen, but until I see something more I’m not going to back him at this steep of a price.
The Rangers have enough bats in the lineup to make things miserable for Wang, so I’m not worried about their offensive production at all.
Take the Rangers as the live dog as they grab the road win.
3♦ TEXAS
Take the Rangers as the big road dog this afternoon over the Yankees.
I know the Yankees lineup is one of the most formidable in all of baseball, and it’s even more amplified playing in the sandbox that is the new Yankees Stadium. But Brandon McCarthy and the Rangers are doing pretty well themselves and this price is way too high with Chien-Ming Wang going for the pinstripes.
McCarthy is 5-2 on the year with a 4.35 ERA. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts.
Wang started the year by getting lit up like a Christmas Tree. His recent return to the roster included a three-inning scoreless stint out of the bullpen, but until I see something more I’m not going to back him at this steep of a price.
The Rangers have enough bats in the lineup to make things miserable for Wang, so I’m not worried about their offensive production at all.
Take the Rangers as the live dog as they grab the road win.
3♦ TEXAS
