Thurs Night, 08/28/08 Game Info & Leans

[thenatural74]

I found all this info in various spots on the net. Just thought I'd try to compile it all and pass it along. Maybe it can be of some help. Descent reading if nothing else.

7:00PM Texas-El Paso @ BUFFALO

University of Texas at El Paso Miners
OFFENSE: The Miners had five games of scoring 42 or more points, but over the final three contests of the six-game skein they were held to 69 points. For the season, UTEP averaged 33.6 points per game to place fourth on the Conference USA charts, and in total offense the Miners averaged 422.8 yards per contest to rank fifth while setting a school record with 5,074 total yards. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Vittatoe has returned to build on his standout freshman campaign when he completed 55 percent of his 407 pass attempts for 3,101 yards, 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. His passing yardage total ranked second in the country for a freshman behind only Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford, who had 3,121 yards through the air. Wideouts Lorne Sam and Joe West, who combined to grab 66 passes that went for 1,323 yards and seven scores, have both moved on, but junior Jeff Moturi, who led the Miners in receptions (65), yardage (891) and touchdowns (13) is back, giving Vittatoe a proven playmaker who toed a school record with a touchdown catch in 10 straight games. Three sophomore receivers will look to step up and make bigger contributions including Kris Adams, Pierce Hunter and Evan Davis. Those three had only a combined 10 catches in 2007. Massive 6-7 tight end Jamar Hunt should also play a bigger role. In addition to Sam and West, also missing from the offense will be tailback Marcus Thomas, who accounted for 1,166 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. Senior Terrell Jackson (202 yards), junior Jason Williams and sophomore Donald Buckram will be battling to earn playing time in the backfield, attempting to replace some of Thomas’s lost yardage. Starters returning up front include senior center Robbie Felix, junior guard Cameron Raschke and junior tackle Mike Aguayo.
DEFENSE: After watching his defensive unit give up over 37 points per game and rank only 11th (117th nationally) in C-USA in total defense, allowing over 504 yards per game, head coach Mike Price decided to scrap the 4-3 alignment the Miners had been in the past four seasons in favor of a 3-3-5 setup. Osia Lewis was brought in from New Mexico to be the new coordinator. Both starting ends from last season, senior James Olalekan (24 tackles) and Robert Soleyjacks, will return to their respective positions, and they will flank senior nose tackle Ja-Boy Leomiti. Only one starter is back at linebacker, senior Adam Vincent (75 stops) who plays in the middle. Two reserves who played in every game, senior Nuuese Punimata (23 tackles) and sophomore Isaiah Carter, will provide support for Vincent. Junior Braxton Amy, who plays at Miner Back, was UTEP’s leading tackler (112) while also picking up a pair of sacks and intercepting three passes. The cornerback slots will be filled by senior Josh Ferguson on the left side and juniors Cornelius Brown (46 tackles, nine pass breakups, four picks) and Melvin Stephenson on the right side. The safeties will be junior Da’Mon Cromartie-Smith (93 tackles, two interceptions) and sophomore Anthony Morrow (31 tackles).

Buffalo Bulls
OFFENSE: After years of terrible offensive play, the Bulls finally showed signs of improvement last season, and with 10 starters back for another go the team is set to take another step forward. A great benefit for coach Gill is the return of four starting offensive linemen, including left tackle Ray Norell. A solid offensive line will do wonders for the play of quarterback Drew Willy, who is coming off a junior campaign in which he completed a whopping 68.4 percent of his passes. The signal caller only tossed 15 TDs, but with his entire receiving corps back, Willy will likely be much more noticeable in the MAC this fall. "I've seen Drew Willy continue to do some good things," said coach Gill. "He is throwing the ball really well so far in camp. He and the receivers are on the same page on things. We are very, very pleased with him." Ernest Jackson and Naaman Roosevelt were Willy's top two targets in '07, as Roosevelt finished with team-highs in receptions (63) and yardage (766), while Jackson paced the team with six TDs. Both players, along with WR Brett Hamlin, will give Willy plenty of options down the field. On the ground, the team will look to get the ball into the hands of James Starks early and often. Starks is a bruising back with surprising speed, and he should put forth another impressive campaign which should include a 1,000- yard season and double-digit touchdowns.
DEFENSE: The 2007 season saw the Bulls exposed defensively, especially through the air, as the team surrendered an average of 231 passing ypg. Buffalo should show drastic improvement in the defensive backfield this year as Davonte Shannon is coming off a tremendous first year for Buffalo when he collected a team-best 123 tackles. Now with some valuable experience under his belt,
Shannon should be even tougher in 2008. Fellow safety Mike Newton led the squad with four interceptions last year. Up front is also a big concern for coach Gill, especially considering teams
pounded Buffalo for 175 rushing ypg in '07. For the Bulls to make positive strides against the run, the team will need Dane Robinson and Ronald Hilaire to quickly improve in the middle of the line. Another problem area lies in the middle of the defense, as the Bulls have a severe lack of depth and experience at linebacker. David Hubbard is the lone returning starter, but the senior only finished with 23 stops, and did not record sack or TFL last season. Hubbard will definitely have to increase those numbers significantly for the UB defense to succeed. "I see that we have talent, and that's good to see," said Gill. "We have some numbers but its going to be a work in progress as we go along, but I feel very good about it because we have speed and we have some physical players."
SPECIAL TEAMS: The kicking game for the Bulls should actually be much more effective in 2008 as A.J. Principe did a commendable job in his first year last season, connecting on a perfect 13-of-13 FGs inside the 40-yard line. However, his struggles were evident from long distance, as the kicker was just
2-of-7 outside 40 yards. Naaman Roosevelt took care of both punt and kick returns last year, and considering how well he did it is likely the receiver will continue in that role.
OUTLOOK: The Bulls should actually have a potent offense this season, but the main problem rests on the shoulders of the defense. If the team can't improve defensively, then it will surely suffer another losing campaign. In addition to questions about the defense's ability to stop the opposition, the Bulls also have a tough opening to the season as they will have to battle UTEP, then travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers. Buffalo also has Missouri on the docket, and will also have to go on the road to take on Central Michigan and Bowling Green. As mentioned earlier, the key to the team's success, or lack thereof, will be the improvement of the defense. Bulls are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.

My lean as of right now would be UTEP +3

 

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7:30PM Vanderbilt @ MIAMI-OHIO

Vanderbilt Commodores
OFFENSE: There are two quarterbacks in the fold who both saw significant action last season. Chris Nickson started the season but struggled with injuries and overall shaky place. Mackenzi Adams started the last six games of the 2007 campaign, but he is more steady than spectacular. Neither has proven much of anything, and both figure to play a role in the offense. The returning receivers have not done much to this point in their careers, so it remains to be seen what fans can expect. After all, Vandy ranked 107th nationally in passing in 2007, and that was with star wideout Earl Bennett in the fold. The Commodores scored only 21.7 ppg, good for 93rd in the nation, and they finished 103rd in total offense. So can the ground attack run the team up the rankings? Well, probably not, especially considering that there will be five new starters along the offensive line. The tailbacks are unproven as well. Overall, this offense gives fans absolutely nothing to get excited about.
DEFENSE: It was obvious to anyone with a set of eyes that the Vanderbilt defense was far superior to the team's offense last season. The Commodores finished 16th nationally in total defense, but only five starters return from that unit. The biggest weakness heading into 2008 is the defensive line. Broderick Stewart returns six sacks to the fold, and Greg Billinger should be solid at tackle, but there is little depth to speak off. An injury to either of those players would be crippling to the team's prospects. The linebacking corps figures to be fairly solid despite the new faces that will line up. However, it is clear that the defensive backfield will be the strength of the team. All four starters are back in place, Junior D.J. Moore is a star who earned First-Team All-SEC honors as a sophomore. He is capable of making plays all over the field. With 83 tackles and six interceptions a year ago, Moore staked his claim as one of the conference's top performers. "D.J. Moore is a very special football player", says coach Bobby Johnson. "He's one of the most natural football players I've ever been around."
SPECIAL TEAMS: Bryan Hahnfeldt struggled a bit last season as the team's placekicker, and while he figures to get another shot as a senior, expect a short leash. Brett Upson is the team's junior punter, and while he was far from impressive last season, Johnson was happy enough with his production to allow Upson to keep his job.
OUTLOOK: It would be surprising to see Vanderbilt reach the five-win mark again. The only thing the team really has going for it is a solid defensive backfield. The offense will struggle mightily to score points, and opponents will be able to run the ball with some success. "The SEC is very exciting," says wideout George Smith. "They have great teams. There is no easy game in the SEC, and it is an honor and privilege to play against guys like Tebow (Tim). We are able to compete with the best, and that gives us lots of confidence." While we admire Smith's confidence, these Commodores are a far cry from some of the elite teams in the conference. Commodores are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.


Miami-Ohio RedHawks
OFFENSE: After averaging over 30.0 ppg from 2002 to 2005, the RedHawks could not muster more than 20.0 ppg over their last two seasons. Last year, the ground attack was stymied due to various injuries and with the top three tailbacks from '07 gone, coach Montgomery is desperate for someone to step up and grab the reins. Thomas Merriweather looks like the man to take over in the backfield, but Jamel Miller and Andre Bratton will likely see carries as well. Another big question entering the season is at the quarterback position, as Daniel Raudabaugh is back, but will be pushed by redshirt freshman Clay Belton. Raudabaugh had injury issues last season, but when the junior was on the field he was extremely inconsistent, completing just 54.7 percent of his throws, while racking up only 12 TDs against 12 interceptions. Whomever lines up under center will not be short on options, as the RedHawks return their top three receivers and tight end. Dustin Wood was the primary target last season, and that should be the same here in 2008, as the junior is the most seasoned wideout on the Miami roster. Sophomore Chris Givens should play a much larger role in the passing game, as the speedy receiver will be looked upon to stretch the field.
DEFENSE: The RedHawks enter the new campaign with one of the most experienced defensive units in the MAC. Nine starters are back, including all three linebackers. This group, which consists of Caleb Bostic, Joey Hudson and Clayton Mullins, is arguably the best in the MAC. The trio was tops in tackles last season for Miami, beginning with Mullins and his 143 stops, four sacks and 9.5 TFLs. "They bring different things to the table, coach Montgomery stated, "Joe's been the leader for the last two years and Clayton has become more of a vocal leader. Caleb is more of a guy who plays through his actions on the field." The front line is also filled with depth and experience, including the return of three starters. The anchor is Joe Coniglio, who is coming off a strong junior campaign in which he led the squad with 6.5 sacks. Just like the front seven, the defensive backfield should also make tremendous improvements, thanks to the return of three starters, including the safety tandem of Robbie Wilson and Jordan Gafford. Wendell Brunson will likely take over at corner, and the junior should build off the small amount of time he spent on the field in '07.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Much like the defense, the RedHawks return the majority of their special teams unit, beginning with Nathan Parseghian, who connected on 13-of-20 field goal attempts in '07. The return game should also be much improved with Eugene Harris and Jamal Rogers shagging kicks. Rogers did an excellent job taking care of the kick returns last season, averaging 22.6 ypr. As for Harris, he also did a commendable job returning punts by averaging 9.3 yards per attempt.
OUTLOOK: Although the team has just eight wins over the past two seasons, the RedHawks enter this year with high expectations. The offense will likely take some time to gel, but once the quarterback and running back position is filled, they should be much more consistent. Defensively, Miami could be one
of the toughest teams in the MAC, and that will be what keeps the team in most games. "We've got a lot of young kids," said coach Montgomery. "We have been a really young football team the last two years. We do have a bigger senior class than we've had in a while, and I'm really excited about them because I think they'll provide us with good leadership. Most of the 19 seniors have contributed a lot over the last couple of years." The schedule does not bode well for the RedHawks early on, as the team will take on Vanderbilt and Michigan on the road to kick things off. Along with the Michigan game, the RedHawks will also face Cincinnati, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Buffalo and Toledo away from home. Redhawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Redhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

My lean as of right now would be Vanderbilt +4

 

[thenatural74]

7:30PM Troy @ Middle Tennessee

Troy Trojans
The Trojans will open the season with a conference game for the first time in Coach Larry Blakeney’s 18 seasons ... The last time Troy opened with a league game was 40 years ago when the “Red Wave” opened with a 49-31 victory over Samford in the Alabama Collegiate Conference ... Troy went on to an 11-1 record and an NAIA national title that year ... Troy is 4-4 in season openers this decade and 12-5 in season openers under Blakeney ... Troy is 8-9 all-time when playing on ESPN Regional Television. Middle Tennessee leads the all-timeseries 11-4, but Troy has won three of the last four meetings and four of seven since the series resumed in 1999. MT leads 8-2 in Murfreesboro.No miracle finish was needed when the Trojans took a 45-7 victory over the Blue Raiders on Nov. 20, 2007. Quarterback Omar Haugabook put up 301 yards of total offense (194 passing and 107 rushing) and accounted for three touchdowns as the Trojans scored all seven times they ventured into the red zone. Troy is 45-35-6 all-time in season openers, including a 20-23-4 record when opening a season on the road. Troy is 4-4 all-time in season-openers against teams from the state of Tennessee. The Trojans have opened seasons in the past against MTSU (L in 1942), Union (2-1), Austin Peay(0-1), UT-Martin (0-1), UT-Chattanooga (1-0) and ETSU (1-0). Since 2000, Troy has failed to force a turnover in a game just 15 times. In those 15 games the Trojans are 1-14, with the only victory coming in 2006 against North Texas. Troy is 40-25 in all other games during that time. On the other side, Troy has a 22-4-1 record in games in which the Trojans did not commit a turnover. Since joining the ranks of Division I-A (Bowl Championship Subdivision) the Trojans have been among the best in the nation in terms of forcing turnovers. Over the last two-plus seasons, despite the improvement of the Trojans offense, Troy has found the going to be particularly rough in the opening quarter of games. In fact, over the last 36 games, the Trojans have been outscored in the first quarter of games 210 187. Also, over that same stretch of games, the Trojans have been shutout in the first quarter 17 times. The Troy offense made it diffi cult on opposing defenses to key on any one receiver by spreading the ball around to several last season. At least 10 different receivers recorded one or more reception in each of the first five games last year, and nine of 12 games last season. Overall, 20 different Trojans have recorded at least one reception last year, and 15 of those players return for the 2008 season. In addition, 13 different Trojans recorded touchdown receptions last season, and 10 of those players return this year. In terms of both
number of players with catches and number of players with touchdown catches, the Trojans lead all of the Bowl Championship Subdivision in 2007. Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Over the past 29 years, Middle Tennessee has compiled a mark of 20-9 in home openers. Middle Tennessee has the luxury of having two starting quarterbacks in Joe Craddock and Dwight Dasher which elevates expectations. However, the pair has combined for just 12 career starts with each player owning six. One area where the Blue Raiders excelled in 2007 was in the turnover department. Middle Tennessee fi nished the year +11 in turnover margin and were +13 over the last five games of the year to finish 12th nationally. In two years under Rick Stockstill the Blue Raiders are +18 in turnover margin. The MT-Troy season opener marks just the third time the Blue Raiders have started a season at home in the FBS era. The only other times MT opened at home during this time came in 2003 against FAU and 2006 against FIU. Overall, the Blue Raiders are 34-5-1 since 1913 when they open the season at home and have won seven of the last eight. A focus of the Blue Raiders has been improving the running game which has not been a weapon since Dwone Hicks last played in 2002. Middle Tennessee averaged 134.8 yards a game in 2007 and had four games where they did not reach the 100-yard mark. On the flip side, the Blue Raiders went over the 200-yard barrier three times and went 2-1 in those contests with the lone loss coming at Louisville. In 2008, the Blue Raiders feel they have the right package with speedsters Desmond Gee and Phillip Tanner forming a strong one-two punch at running back and either Dwight Dasher (last year’s leading rusher) or Joe Craddock under center. All four are a threat to make big plays on the ground. Gee will
be at running back for the fi rst time in his career and carries a solid 4.3 per rush average while Tanner is 100 percent after an injury riddled 2007 campaign and owns an impressive 4.7 yards per carry average. Combined they have just one start between them at tailback and only one 100-yard rushing game (both by Tanner). The Blue Raiders have won 505 football games all-time and have an overall record of 505-365-28. The Blue Raiders are 37-7 in the I-A era when leading at the half and are 40-7 when leading a game entering the 4th quarter during that time. When trailing at the half, the Blue Raiders are just 7-47 in the I-A era. Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.

My lean as of right now would be Midd Tenn St. +6.5

 

[thenatural74]

8:00PM (23)Wake Forest @ BAYLOR

Wake Forest Demon Deacons
OFFENSE: The Demon Deacons were nothing special on the offensive side of the ball in 2007, ranking in the middle of the pack in most statistical categories, including total offense (sixth in the league at 340.4 ypg). The one area that Wake usually dominated, the ground game, ranked fourth in the ACC (143.2 ypg). There are five starters returning on this side of the football in 2008, including at quarterback and tailback. Junior QB Riley Skinner led the nation in completion percentage as a sophomore, connecting on 72.4 percent of his passes. However, his 12 touchdowns were overshadowed by his 13 interceptions. Grobe's hope is that with another year under his belt, he will make better decisions downfield. "What I've seen of Riley this past spring was a much more mature quarterback, a guy that is pretty focused on taking care of the football, making first downs." Skinner will need to find new favorite targets with the loss of three of his top four outlets from last year, including standout Kenny Moore, who set an ACC record with 98 receptions. Senior WR Chip Brinkman is the top returner on the outside, pulling down 27 balls in 2007. The ground game should be a strength once again, with sophomore Josh Adams getting the majority of the carries. He was outstanding as a freshman, earning Second-Team All-ACC honors and being tabbed the ACC Rookie of the Year, after rushing for 953 yards and 11 TDs in nine starts. The team must replace several players along the offensive line, including All-ACC center Steve Justice and it remains to be seen just what Grobe has up front.
DEFENSE: The Demon Deacons return nine starters on the defensive side of the ball and is the ACC's most veteran unit, with as many as eight starters being seniors. Only sack leader Jeremy Thompson (6.5 sacks) is gone among the top nine tacklers from 2007. The secondary is probably the strength of the unit, led by safety Chip Vaughn, who led the team in tackles (105) and PBUs (14) last year and cornerback Alphonso Smith (44 tackles, 10 PBUs), who earned Second-Team All-American honors after posting an impressive eight interceptions (school record). The linebacking corps returns intact, made up of the senior trio of Aaron Curry (99 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, three sacks, four INTs), Stanley Arnoux (66 tackles 3.5 sacks, two INTs) and Chantz McClinic (45 tackles, 2.5 sacks). Curry is the top playmaker among the group, returning three INTs for TDs last season. Who exactly will step up along the defensive front is still a real concern, although junior nose tackle Boo Robinson is a load (6-2, 326) and is coming off a 2007 season that saw him tally 26 tackles and three sacks.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Wake Forest may just have the best placekicker in the ACC in the form of senior Sam Swank. The 6-2 veteran has hit nine of his 12 opportunities from beyond 50 yards in his career and is coming off a 2007 season in which he was 18-of-21, with a long of 52 yards. He also handled the punting duties and averaged nearly 40 yards per attempt last season. He will once again resume both roles this year. Demon Deacons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.


Baylor Bears
OFFENSE: The Baylor offense, while not totally devoid of talent, needs to become more consistent and show vast improvement in all areas for the team to climb out of the Big 12's basement. Briles' high-octane, pass-happy approach will help, but the players are the ones who need to make it happen. Any one of three QBs could see significant playing time, including returning starter Blake Szymanski who threw for more than 2,800 yards and 22 TDs a year ago, but he was picked off 18 times. Former Miami Hurricane Kirby Freeman is in the mix as is highly-touted freshman Robert Griffin. "They?re all really good. We can win with them," Briles has said of his quarterbacks. "I thought all the quarterbacks played really well. I'm proud of the way they led through the spring. All three of those guys are good players, really good players." Whomever lines up under center, he will have the good fortune of throwing to a solid group of receivers, highlighted by junior speedster David Gettis and junior TE Justin Akers. Both stand at least 6-4 and will provide big targets down field. The BU run game was abysmal last season, averaging a mere 77.8 ypg to rank 113th in the country, so the hope is that sophomore Jay Finley and senior Jacoby Jones can raise the bar and help take some of the pressure off the passing game. The offensive line returns four starters, among them senior tackles Jason Smith and Dan Gay.
DEFENSE: Up is really the only direction the Baylor defense can go after allowing more than 461 yards and 37 points per game last year. The team ranked last in nation in turnover margin at -18. A total of six starters are back from that unit, but with another year of experience and a new defensive philosophy, guys like LB Joe Pawelek and FS Jordan Lake could flourish. Lake posted 120 tackles and two INTs last season, while Pawelek has logged 185 tackles the last two years. Both were named to the All-Big 12 Second Team in 2007. Lake had off-season shoulder surgery but he should be ready to go come the season opener. Another guy to keep an eye on is senior DT Vincent Rhodes, a 305-pounder who will likely be the team's stop-gap in the middle. Jason Lamb is a 6-6 junior who could develop into one of the Big 12's better pass rushers after notching five sacks in '07. Despite a lack of depth along the defensive line, Briles is excited about the prospect of his defense kicking it up a notch and showing the rest of the conference that the Bears aren't going to be pushed around any longer.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Sophomores Shea Brewster and Derek Epperson are back to handle the kicking and punting chores, respectively, and both are hoping to show improvement from their rookie campaigns. Brewster combined with Caleb Allen to knock through just 6-of-14 FG attempts in '07, while Epperson averaged just under 40 yards per punt. Still, Briles anticipates his special teams to play an important role in the team's overall success. "I feel real good about the kicking game. I thought (Shea) Brewster had a great spring and (Derek) Epperson did a great job. And then our snapper, Carter (Brunelle). Those guys performed at the level they have to perform at." Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Bears are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

My lean as of right now would be Wake Forest -13

 

[thenatural74]

8:00PM NC State @ SO CAROLINA

NC State Wolfpack
OFFENSE: The Wolfpack return six starters from last year's offense and that seemed to be a plus heading into the summer. However much like last year, NC State has been ravaged by injuries in the preseason, leaving O'Brien with some uncertainty as the season approaches. Tailback Toney Baker (knee) and wide receiver Donald Bowens (back) are significant injuries. Bowens is a season-ending injury and will be felt throughout the year. "Losing Donald is a tough loss for the football team. When you lose your most experienced and best receiver coming back it certainly hurts you, especially when you are trying to find a quarterback," says O'Brien. Now the team is extremely raw in the receiving corps, with sophomore Owen Spencer (five receptions, for 73 yards) as the most experienced wideout. "They're about as green as the quarterbacks, with the exception of senior Daniel Evans," O?Brien said. "It?s a situation that is a work in progress. Some of those kids have to step up and make some plays." The quarterback situation is an obvious area of concern, with Evans, redshirt
freshman Russell Wilson and true freshman Mike Glennon battling it out for the starting job. Evans played to mixed reviews last season, completing 57.2 percent of his passes, for 2,030 yards, with 12 TDs and 13 INTs, but by no means has the job locked down heading into mid-August. Although Toney Brown is banged up in the backfield, the outlook there is a little better, with returning tailbacks Jameele Eugene (667 yards and five TDs) and Andre Brown (447 yards, five TDs) ready for action. The offensive line returns three starters, but O'Brien would like some depth up front and nothing is set in stone. "We are still trying to find the best five guys and also find some guys who can go in and spell them so they won't have to play 82 plays or 75 plays a game. We'll be better in the long run for that," says 'O'Brien.
DEFENSE: Defensively, the Wolfpack struggled in 2007, ranking 11th in the conference in total defense (393.9 ypg) and scoring defense (28.2 ppg). The real problem came in stopping the run, something NC State did very little of last season (last in the conference at 186.4 ypg). The team returns just four starters on the defensive side of the ball and to make matters worse, depth in the secondary has taken a hit, with Clem Johnson suffering a broken jaw, leaving him out indefinitely. Senior cornerback Jeremy Gray is the top returning tackler on the squad after posting 62 tackles and three INTs a year ago. The linebacking corps is in need of a complete overhaul, but the hope is that sophomore Nate Irving (52 tackles, six TFLs, one sack) can build off a solid freshman season. Up front, the team must replace Martrel Brown and DeMario Pressley, but there is a couple of playmaking juniors that can fill the void with the return of tackle Alan-Michael Cash (50 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and rush end Willie Young (48 tackles, 10 TFLs, six sacks).
SPECIAL TEAMS: The kicking game is a bit of an unknown right now as well. The punting job is secured with the return of senior Bradley Pierson, although his average of 37.2 yards per punt could use some improvement. The placekicking job however, needs new blood with the loss of Steven Hauschka, who hit 16-of-18 field-goal attempts, including a long of 49 yards last year. His replacement is sophomore Josh Czajkowski, who has been chomping at the bit to get his opportunity. "Stephen Hauschka was a great kicker and I loved watching him kick. Just being around him and John Deraney was huge for me, because they were both so successful. It puts the idea in your head: I was waiting behind two NFL guys. I am eager to fill their shoes and get my shot." The return game is the biggest concern on special teams. Not only did the team lose Darrell Blackman, whose career is now over in Raleigh, but the injury to Bowens leaves the team with no reliable return man. Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

South Carolina Gamecocks
OFFENSE: Last season, South Carolina ranked 70th nationally in scoring offense and 77th in total offense, including 101st in rushing. Considering that Spurrier has the reputation of being an offensive guru, it is hard to justify those figures. Spurrier has decided that he will not be calling the plays this season, delegating the responsibility to Steve Spurrier Jr. Clearly, father will still be in charge of the offense, but son will be calling the plays on game day. The first question that has to be answered is who will be the team's starting quarterback. Chris Smelley won four games as a freshman last season but has limited physical skills. Junior Tommy Beecher has more arm strength and is much more capable of making plays with his legs. Going by the happenings in recent seasons, both signal-callers will see significant action. Also, both will benefit from the return of standout receiver Kenny McKinley, who made 77 catches for 968 yards and nine touchdowns as a junior. The 77 catches led the SEC and set a new school record. On a down note, the ground attack does not have a proven leader heading into this campaign, so while an improvement on last season's poor rushing numbers seems logical, one or two capable tailbacks must emerge to make that happen.
DEFENSE: South Carolina ranked fourth nationally in pass defense a year ago, and the fact that all four starters in the defensive backfield return is tremendously encouraging. Defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson has the freedom to blitz without worrying about exposing the d-backs, who are more than capable of holding down the fort. In fact, the entire defense is extremely experienced, as a whopping 10 returning starters are in place. Emmanuel Cook made 92 tackles, including 77 solo stops, from his strong safety position a year ago. He also intercepted three passes. Eric Norwood showed flashes of brilliance at the linebacker position last season, and he is more than capable of improving on his sack total of six from 2007. The hope is that middle linebacker Jasper Brinkley proves to be healthy. Brinkley missed most of last season following knee surgery, but he was an All-SEC performer in 2006 who is a true difference-maker. The Gamecocks played poorly against the run in 2007, and the line is clearly the weak spot of the defensive unit. There are some tremendous running teams in the SEC, and it remains to be seen if coach Johnson has figured out how to sure up the front. "We haven't had a defensive lineman or a linebacker drafted since I've been there," says Spurrier. "So I'm not blaming the coaches. I'm just saying, as a head coach, I got to do something differently to try to give us a spark."
SPECIAL TEAMS: Ryan Succop enters his senior season as the team's most experienced placekicker and punter. While he is certainly going to continue kicking the field goals, there is a good chance that the punting duties will be delegated to Spencer Lanning, a sophomore. The special teams units are not among the best in the league, but there is no reason to consider them a problem area either. Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.

My lean as of right now would be South Carolina -12

 

[thenatural74]

9:00PM Oregon State @ STANFORD

Oregon State Beavers
For the first time since the 1994 season (Arizona State) the Beavers begin the year with a Pac-10 Conference road game. The Beavers and Stanford also opened the 1989 season at then Parker Stadium, a Beaver win 20-16 ... 2008 also marks the first time since 1989 that Oregon and Oregon State have opened the season with Pac-10 Conference games. Oregon State has won three of its last four road games within the league, including at No. 2 California and No. 18 Oregon last season. In fact, OSU has fared well in conference away games, posting an 11-6 mark over the last four years. Several publications and organizations have picked the Oregon State schedule among the most difficult in the nation. Phil Steele’s Preview selected the team’s schedule the fifth-most difficult — Washington is rated with the most difficult and UCLA the sixth-hardest. The Beavers play two BCS Bowl teams (USC and Hawai’i) and a total of eight postseason teams from last year — for an overall opposition record of 100-66. The three non-conference opponents for the Beavers combined for a 30-9 record in 2007. Oregon State has won six of the last seven games in the series and eight of the last 11. The Beavers have won the last three encounters at Stanford Stadium and four of the last five. Stanford leads the series overall 47-24-3. Part of the recent success in the series for Oregon State has been its ability to stop the Cardinal rushing game. Over the last five contests, Stanford has averaged 40.4 yards on the ground, including minus-8 last season and one in 2004. The Beavers possessed the nation’s top rushing defense in the nation last season allowing 70.6 yards per game, allowing only one of its 14 opponents to eclipse its season average. Oregon State enters the season with the fourth-longest win streak in the nation at four games. BYU has a 10-game streak, Georgia at seven and USC at five. The Beavers last loss was to USC, Nov. 3, 2007, 24-3. Oregon State entered the 2007 season with a four-game streak as well. Over the last 49 games, Oregon State is 21-2 when committing fewer turnovers than its opponent, 6-14 when committing more turnovers and 3-3 when even. Since 2001 the Beavers have forced the sixth-most turnovers in the nation with 203, trailing USC (237), Virginia Tech (214), Washington State (209), Oklahoma (208) and West Virginia (208). Oregon State is 41-6 when it leads after three quarters with Mike Riley as the head coach. Starting with the 2004 season, the Beavers are 27-2 (losses to LSU - 04 & UCLA - 07) when they head into the fourth quarter with the lead. Beavers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.


Stanford Cardinals
Despite the losses of part-time starters Nick Sanchez (53 tackles; team-high four interceptions) and Tim Sims (31 tackles), Stanford's secondary is long on experience, with veterans strong safety Bo McNally, free safety Austin Yancy and left cornerback Wopamo Osaisai having combined for 38 career starts over the last three seasons. Stanford also boasts quality depth in the defensive backfield in senior Kris Evans and sophomore Corey Gatewood, who are battling for the starting job at right corner along with Taylor Skaufel, who will make a strong push for starting time at free safety. The linebacker position figures to be strength of Stanford's defense, as the Cardinal returns three starters from a year ago in Clinton Snyder, Pat Maynor and Chike Amajoyi. Snyder, who is listed on preseason watch lists for the Bronko Nagurski, Chuck Bednarik and Butkus Awards, sets the tone for Stanford's defense with his physical presence and leadership skills. He has started all but two games over the last two seasons and earned honorable mention All-Pac 10 honors in 2007 after finishing among the conference leaders in virtually every defensive category, including fumbles forced (4-t-1st), tackles-for-loss (14.5-5th), fumbles recovered (3-t-4th), sacks (8.0-t-7th) and tackles (89-t-9th). A fifth-year senior, Maynor has played in 30 games and has made 20 starts over the last two seasons and is tied for second on Stanford's active career list with 135 tackles and 19.5 tackles-for-loss. He finished third on the team last year in total tackles (88) and led the team with a career-best 16.5 tackles-for-loss. His 1.50 TFL per game average ranked second in the Pac-10 and tied for 12th nationally. Amajoyi made an immediate contribution last season as a natural freshman, finishing with 47 tackles, 9.0 tackles-for-loss and 4.0 sacks. He also tied for the team lead and ranked fifth in the Pac-10 with three fumble recoveries. Amajoyi made a seamless transition from outside linebacker to the middle during spring drills and seems poised to develop into a major force this season. Stanford returns five players with starting experience to a defensive front that demonstrated marked improvement last season from the previous campaign. After employing a three-man front in 2006, the decision to switch to a four-man front paid dividends, as the Cardinal finished fifth in the Pac-10 in sacks with 37 after totaling just nine in 2006. Stanford averaged 3.08 sacks a game a year ago, which ranked third in the Pac-10 and 11th nationally. The Cardinal also recorded 101 tackles for loss a year ago, good for third in the Pac-10 and fifth nationally. There are many more question marks surrounding Stanford's offense heading into the 2008 season. Who will emerge as the starting quarterback? Will Anthony Kimble and Toby Gerhart be able to go through the season injury-free? Will Doug Baldwin or Ryan Whalen be viable options at wide receiver to complement junior Richard Sherman? Who will emerge from the tight end fray among Tom McAndrew, Austin Gunder, Coby Fleener, Konrad Reuland or Jim Dray? One group that seemingly has more answers than questions is the offensive line, a unit head coach Jim Harbaugh describes as "being a strength of our football team." Stanford's offensive line is long on experience, with four of the five starting roles expected to be occupied by seniors who have combined to make 58 career starts. The only significant loss is Tim Mattran, who started all 12 games at center a year ago. In addition, the status of senior Allen Smith remains a question mark, as he is still sidelined after tearing his patella tendon last year in the Oregon game. Fifth-year senior Alex Fletcher, who is a candidate for both the Outland Trophy and Rimington Award, moves back to his natural center position after playing guard last year. A four-year starter with 32 career starts under his belt, Fletcher earned second team All-Pac 10 honors last season after making 12 starts on a much-improved offensive line. He will be backed up by junior Chase Beeler, who began his collegiate career at Oklahoma. Fletcher has seen first hand the transformation of this unit during his Stanford career. "When I came here, we were the weakness of the team and now we are finally the strength," said the native of Old Brookville, N.Y. "A lot of guys had to develop and get better. That is one of the best places to have strength, but you are one of five and are only as good as the guy next to you." Harbaugh has also noticed a shift in attitude of his offensive linemen since the start of spring drills. "They are a very tight and confident group and they have been together for a long time so they have a real good feel for the guy on their left and the guy on their right. Cardinal are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games on grass. Cardinal are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 conference games. Cardinal are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. Cardinal are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

My lean as of right now would be Oregon State -3

 

[MattMillen+]

Good info. BOL.

 

[MattMillen+]

7:30PM Troy @ Middle Tennessee

Troy Trojans
The Trojans will open the season with a conference game for the first time in Coach Larry Blakeney’s 18 seasons ... The last time Troy opened with a league game was 40 years ago when the “Red Wave” opened with a 49-31 victory over Samford in the Alabama Collegiate Conference ... Troy went on to an 11-1 record and an NAIA national title that year ... Troy is 4-4 in season openers this decade and 12-5 in season openers under Blakeney ... Troy is 8-9 all-time when playing on ESPN Regional Television. Middle Tennessee leads the all-timeseries 11-4, but Troy has won three of the last four meetings and four of seven since the series resumed in 1999. MT leads 8-2 in Murfreesboro.No miracle finish was needed when the Trojans took a 45-7 victory over the Blue Raiders on Nov. 20, 2007. Quarterback Omar Haugabook put up 301 yards of total offense (194 passing and 107 rushing) and accounted for three touchdowns as the Trojans scored all seven times they ventured into the red zone. Troy is 45-35-6 all-time in season openers, including a 20-23-4 record when opening a season on the road. Troy is 4-4 all-time in season-openers against teams from the state of Tennessee. The Trojans have opened seasons in the past against MTSU (L in 1942), Union (2-1), Austin Peay(0-1), UT-Martin (0-1), UT-Chattanooga (1-0) and ETSU (1-0). Since 2000, Troy has failed to force a turnover in a game just 15 times. In those 15 games the Trojans are 1-14, with the only victory coming in 2006 against North Texas. Troy is 40-25 in all other games during that time. On the other side, Troy has a 22-4-1 record in games in which the Trojans did not commit a turnover. Since joining the ranks of Division I-A (Bowl Championship Subdivision) the Trojans have been among the best in the nation in terms of forcing turnovers. Over the last two-plus seasons, despite the improvement of the Trojans offense, Troy has found the going to be particularly rough in the opening quarter of games. In fact, over the last 36 games, the Trojans have been outscored in the first quarter of games 210 187. Also, over that same stretch of games, the Trojans have been shutout in the first quarter 17 times. The Troy offense made it diffi cult on opposing defenses to key on any one receiver by spreading the ball around to several last season. At least 10 different receivers recorded one or more reception in each of the first five games last year, and nine of 12 games last season. Overall, 20 different Trojans have recorded at least one reception last year, and 15 of those players return for the 2008 season. In addition, 13 different Trojans recorded touchdown receptions last season, and 10 of those players return this year. In terms of both
number of players with catches and number of players with touchdown catches, the Trojans lead all of the Bowl Championship Subdivision in 2007. Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Over the past 29 years, Middle Tennessee has compiled a mark of 20-9 in home openers. Middle Tennessee has the luxury of having two starting quarterbacks in Joe Craddock and Dwight Dasher which elevates expectations. However, the pair has combined for just 12 career starts with each player owning six. One area where the Blue Raiders excelled in 2007 was in the turnover department. Middle Tennessee fi nished the year +11 in turnover margin and were +13 over the last five games of the year to finish 12th nationally. In two years under Rick Stockstill the Blue Raiders are +18 in turnover margin. The MT-Troy season opener marks just the third time the Blue Raiders have started a season at home in the FBS era. The only other times MT opened at home during this time came in 2003 against FAU and 2006 against FIU. Overall, the Blue Raiders are 34-5-1 since 1913 when they open the season at home and have won seven of the last eight. A focus of the Blue Raiders has been improving the running game which has not been a weapon since Dwone Hicks last played in 2002. Middle Tennessee averaged 134.8 yards a game in 2007 and had four games where they did not reach the 100-yard mark. On the flip side, the Blue Raiders went over the 200-yard barrier three times and went 2-1 in those contests with the lone loss coming at Louisville. In 2008, the Blue Raiders feel they have the right package with speedsters Desmond Gee and Phillip Tanner forming a strong one-two punch at running back and either Dwight Dasher (last year’s leading rusher) or Joe Craddock under center. All four are a threat to make big plays on the ground. Gee will
be at running back for the fi rst time in his career and carries a solid 4.3 per rush average while Tanner is 100 percent after an injury riddled 2007 campaign and owns an impressive 4.7 yards per carry average. Combined they have just one start between them at tailback and only one 100-yard rushing game (both by Tanner). The Blue Raiders have won 505 football games all-time and have an overall record of 505-365-28. The Blue Raiders are 37-7 in the I-A era when leading at the half and are 40-7 when leading a game entering the 4th quarter during that time. When trailing at the half, the Blue Raiders are just 7-47 in the I-A era. Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf.

My lean as of right now would be Midd Tenn St. +6.5

I'd be careful on this one. This might as well be a neutral stadium. The Blue Raiders can't even fill up half the stadium. Craddock played baseball in the spring, yet he still looks better than Dasher. Still have a chance to cover with Troy losing as many players as they did, BOL.

 

[SoonerBS]

My lean as of right now would be Midd Tenn St. +6.5

How good is Middle Tenn St's skill players going to be whenever their non-existent offensive line is throwing "look out" blocks against Troy's more experienced defense?

 

[SoonerBS]

By the way, I agree with most of your other plays . . .

 

[thenatural74]

I agree...like I said, these are all just leans. May not even play a game this week. I usually like to wait till about a week in. Mainly just passing this info I found along to all my friends. I'll be the first to admit that Troy really scares me lol. I've seen them play some great ball and come from behind ball in the past. Seen them light up the scoreboards too. Just leans tho...GL to you!!

 

[clowncar]

enjoyable read. gl this year natural on whatever you decide to play

 

[Leatherballs]

My lean as of right now would be Midd Tenn St. +6.5

How good is Middle Tenn St's skill players going to be whenever their non-existent offensive line is throwing "look out" blocks against Troy's more experienced defense?

Straight from goblueraiders.com

You have said the quarterback will be a game-time decision. How does that affect the game plan here and for Troy? In my opinion we have two starting quarterbacks (Joe Craddock and Dwight Dasher). I feel confident we can have a successful offense with either one of them at the quarterback position. I don't want to be an offense where this quarterback goes this series or this one and the other goes the next one. I also don't want a quarterback that feels if he makes a mistake he's coming out. Both quarterbacks will play this week against Troy and both will play against Maryland. This will not affect our team in any way. In the big scheme of things I doubt it will affect Troy. They do what they do on defense no matter what we do.

 

[thenatural74]

Thanx clowncar and GL to you too bro!