Yesterday 1 2 0 -2.00 Units
Last 30 Days 34 41 0 -6.04 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 36 46 0 -9.94 Unit
sAll games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +179 over CINCINNATI
12:30 PM EST. Aneury Rodriguez makes the first start of his career after working out of the pen in nine games this year. He’s just 23 years old and was signed by the Rockies as a non-drafted free agent in 2005. He’s spent the past five years in the minors and last season went 7-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief appearances covering 123 frames. He struck out 100 batters and walked 51 and that’s where he gets into most of his trouble. Rodriguez has good stuff but he does not have good command and he might get his clock rung today. However, with a take-back of +179 against Travis Wood, it’s a risk worth taking. Wood failed to get out of the fourth inning in two of his last three. He has an extreme flyball profile and at this venue that’s a problem waiting to happen. The Astros came in here last night and scored 10 runs en route to a 10-4 win. They’ve won three in a row and they’re swinging the bats well right now. The Reds starters are getting whacked and as a result the pen has been used extensively. Cinci has lost three of four and they’ve allowed 35 runs against in their last five games and 19 in their last two. Both Wood and the Reds are overpriced. Play: Houston +179 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +112 over LOS ANGELES
3:10 PM EST. Ryan Dempster had been getting knocked around like a piñata all season until last night when the Dodgers made him look like Jon Lester. The Dodgers have scored just 22 runs over their last eight games and they’re hitting .238 over that span. Age and a ton of career innings may finally be catching up to Ted Lilly. The only thing that he has maintained this season is his pinpoint command. Everything else shows warning signs. His GB/FB rate is 27%/44%. He’s allowed 40 hits and 16 ER in 32 frames and he’s only had two good starts in six tries. Four of his six starts have come against San Diego twice and the Giants twice and he got hit hard in three of those four starts. Current Cubbie hitters are batting a robust .441 against Lilly with 26 hits in a combined 59 AB’s. Carlos Zambrano has not regained the form that made him an ace a few years ago but he’s hanging in there and giving the Cubs a chance to win. Zambrano has 29 K’s in 37 IP, he has a BAA of .256 and an 1.28 WHIP. The Cubs are 5-1 when Zambrano pitches and right now they’re playing better ball than the Dodgers. Play: Chicago +112 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +121 over SAN DIEGO
6:35 PM EST. Kevin Correia went into Colorado in his last start and threw 6.2 innings of three hit ball and didn’t allow a run. He’s now 4-0 on the road with an ERA of 1.29 and he’ll be a little extra amped up here because not only did he pitch the past two years for the Pads but it’s also his hometown. The Padres are dead last in many offensive categories including runs scored and team batting average (.217). They’re too big a risk laying anything even against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is 4-1 against southpaws and will face one here in Clayton Richard. Richard is 1-2 with a 3.82 ERA and everything about his skill set is unexciting. His K’s/BB ratio is weak at 19/12. His GB/LD/FB rate is also average at 41%/22%/37%. His xERA is 4.85 and this starting pitcher for this team as the chalk is about as unappealing as it gets. Of course the Pirates can win here. Play: Pittsburgh +121 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 34 41 0 -6.04 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 36 46 0 -9.94 Unit
sAll games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Houston +179 over CINCINNATI
12:30 PM EST. Aneury Rodriguez makes the first start of his career after working out of the pen in nine games this year. He’s just 23 years old and was signed by the Rockies as a non-drafted free agent in 2005. He’s spent the past five years in the minors and last season went 7-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 19 starts and 10 relief appearances covering 123 frames. He struck out 100 batters and walked 51 and that’s where he gets into most of his trouble. Rodriguez has good stuff but he does not have good command and he might get his clock rung today. However, with a take-back of +179 against Travis Wood, it’s a risk worth taking. Wood failed to get out of the fourth inning in two of his last three. He has an extreme flyball profile and at this venue that’s a problem waiting to happen. The Astros came in here last night and scored 10 runs en route to a 10-4 win. They’ve won three in a row and they’re swinging the bats well right now. The Reds starters are getting whacked and as a result the pen has been used extensively. Cinci has lost three of four and they’ve allowed 35 runs against in their last five games and 19 in their last two. Both Wood and the Reds are overpriced. Play: Houston +179 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +112 over LOS ANGELES
3:10 PM EST. Ryan Dempster had been getting knocked around like a piñata all season until last night when the Dodgers made him look like Jon Lester. The Dodgers have scored just 22 runs over their last eight games and they’re hitting .238 over that span. Age and a ton of career innings may finally be catching up to Ted Lilly. The only thing that he has maintained this season is his pinpoint command. Everything else shows warning signs. His GB/FB rate is 27%/44%. He’s allowed 40 hits and 16 ER in 32 frames and he’s only had two good starts in six tries. Four of his six starts have come against San Diego twice and the Giants twice and he got hit hard in three of those four starts. Current Cubbie hitters are batting a robust .441 against Lilly with 26 hits in a combined 59 AB’s. Carlos Zambrano has not regained the form that made him an ace a few years ago but he’s hanging in there and giving the Cubs a chance to win. Zambrano has 29 K’s in 37 IP, he has a BAA of .256 and an 1.28 WHIP. The Cubs are 5-1 when Zambrano pitches and right now they’re playing better ball than the Dodgers. Play: Chicago +112 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +121 over SAN DIEGO
6:35 PM EST. Kevin Correia went into Colorado in his last start and threw 6.2 innings of three hit ball and didn’t allow a run. He’s now 4-0 on the road with an ERA of 1.29 and he’ll be a little extra amped up here because not only did he pitch the past two years for the Pads but it’s also his hometown. The Padres are dead last in many offensive categories including runs scored and team batting average (.217). They’re too big a risk laying anything even against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is 4-1 against southpaws and will face one here in Clayton Richard. Richard is 1-2 with a 3.82 ERA and everything about his skill set is unexciting. His K’s/BB ratio is weak at 19/12. His GB/LD/FB rate is also average at 41%/22%/37%. His xERA is 4.85 and this starting pitcher for this team as the chalk is about as unappealing as it gets. Of course the Pirates can win here. Play: Pittsburgh +121 (Risking 2 units).
