three plays Tuesday with analysis

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Yesterday 1-1 (-0.15 units)
Y-T-D on this site: (3-2 +2.25 units)

MARQUETTE –9 over Nebraska<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Like the way this one sets up as the Golden Eagles are coming off a five-point home loss to ranked Arizona as the team had it’s worst shooting day of the season. It was the first non-conference loss by Marquette in the teams past 34 games and it didn’t sit well with them. Furthermore, Marquette has really not performed that well this year despite its 9-1 record. They’ve had plenty of close games against teams they should’ve blown away such as a 66-60 win over Delaware St, an eight-point win over Oakland (Mich), and a 13 point win over Sam Houston St. We believe that the oddsmakers are either giving the Huskers too much credit here or the Golden Eagles not enough. You see, Marquette, when it comes to defense, may be the best the nation has to offer and that bodes very well here against a Husker team that doesn’t shoot the ball well and virtually has a non-existent defense. In fact, in the Huskers only road game of the year they allowed UAB to hang an 80 on them and lost by 14 points. It won't help that Nebraska is expected to be without senior guard Corey Simms, considered to be the team's top one-on-one defender, for a third straight game with a sprained right elbow. The Huskers also might not have guard Jake Muhleisen for a second game, as he's nursing a sprained wrist. The Golden Eagles are giving up just 60.2 points, allowing 38 percent shooting and pulling down nearly 10 more rebounds than its opponents per game. Nebraska is just 4-3 on the year and in four of the games they played there was no line posted because the opposition was so weak that Vegas just doesn’t put up numbers against certain schools. In the three other games, the Huskers went 0-3 against the number. The Huskers are a weak team that doesn’t travel well and will face their toughest assignment of the year. Marquette is on the verge of cracking the top 25 rankings and will absolutely be focused here to get back to the winners circle after their first loss of the year. Play: Marquette –9 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5). <o:p></o:p>

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EASTERN WASHINGTON +22½ over Gonzaga<o:p></o:p>
Can you say mismatch? The 8-1 Bulldogs, fresh off an 85-73 win over then-No. 3 Georgia Tech, jumped nine spots to No. 13 in the Associated Press Top 25 Monday. The 2-7 Eagles, whose last win was a struggle at home against an NAIA Division II school, have lost five straight. Gonzaga has won five straight, two against ranked opponents. It’s a mismatch on paper, not only because of size, but the numbers. The Bulldogs shoot better than 50 percent from the field, average almost 80 points a game and have not been out-rebounded. The Eagles are shooting just 44 percent, average 20 turnovers a game and give up 75.4 points. However, wagering on sports is all about “stepping in” at the right time and this one falls directly under that category. For Eastern Washington, this is a game that they’ll be sky-high for. Not often do they get an opportunity to play a ranked opponent and thus, this becomes their biggest game of the year. For Gonzaga, this game is merely an inconvenience. The Bulldogs just pulled off a huge upset on the road and right after this game they’ll head home for the Christmas break and then they’ll play at No. 3, Oklahoma St next Tuesday. It’s a perfect spot to take back 22½ points at home against a team that will show up in body only. Play: Eastern Washington +22½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<o:p></o:p>

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UCLA +16½ over Michigan St.<o:p></o:p>
We must be missing something here and if this is the sucker play of the year then shame on us. Sorry folks, but we just can’t justify this number although we tried every conceivable way to do so. Are the Spartans that much better then the Bruins? Perhaps so, but one thing we can tell you is that this line is an absolute insult to the Bruins. We can tell you 100% for sure that the players are aware of the point spread and they had to be shaking their heads when they saw this one. Sure the Spartans are ranked 23rd in the nation, however, we’re going to need much more convincing then that before we’ll spot the 6-1 Bruins 16½ points. It’s not like UCLA has beaten a bunch of cupcakes either. They’ve already beaten two good programs in Michigan and Pepperdine and have taken care of business against everyone else they’ve played with the exception of Boston College (Boston College is undefeated at 8-0). Now, about the Spartans, who have played one good team this year, Duke, and lost by seven. Spartans also lost by 13 to George Washington and we don’t mean in a game of tetherball. They now sit at 6-2 on the year after beating powerhouses, Florida A&M, Wisc. Green Bay, Nicholls St., George Mason, Stanford, and Delaware St. Again, we can’t justify laying this type of wood with a Spartans team that haven’t showed us that they’re superior then this invader. The only way we’ll be convinced that they are is when we see tomorrow’s fish wrap. This line seems insanely out of whack. Play: UCLA +16½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).


 

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Sherwood, you are right on with Marquette. I was at the NU/Creighton game a week and a half ago. That was the only time I can remember where I physically fell asleep at a live sporting event. It was the worst display of BB I have ever seen. Nebraska has no offensive threats. Your analysis on this matchup is right on. I like your E. Wash pick as well. The Zags the last couple of years have not been red hot against the big DD spreads. I think you get line value sometimes because of their reputation. UCLA seems to easy, but I bit on bigger fishes. Good Luck.
 

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Dec 1, 2004
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Sherwood, when I was looking at today's games, I was surprised that nobody was talking about this game. Marquette bounces back and beats a bad road team. GL
 

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Dec 8, 2004
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Great thoughts as always Sherwood, hope to see you here all season. Man my eyes almost bugged out of my head on that Mich St line myself - I'm going to read some L.A. papers online today see what their local scribes are saying, b/c to me it looks like a close game. I agree w/ you on the situational angle on the Zags game, I played a nice spot on ECU vs a SC team off a heartbreaking loss to Kan. last night, and I think your 'sandwich' game is valid here, I agree they have still got to be patting each other on the backsides of that Ga Tech win, and looking ahead to X-Mas and Okie St. I agree tough to run it up on their rival tonight. Good job man.
 

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Kabb:
Glad you played them all and won some cash. It's great that we can all share information and it's even greater when we win.

Thanks everyone for the comments and lets hope for continued success.
Only trying to do my part.
Sherwood.
 

Rx God
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Nov 1, 2002
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Brian: I layed off your hoops tonight ! I think I'll follow you more on that, in future. I know you. I think you have something brewing. I probably jinxed the guy into Hell. I'll be playing his CBB picks. Guaranteed 1-4, next 5.
 

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