Thoughts On Who Will Cover In The Super Bowl?

[THE SHRINK]

Originally, I was thinking the Patriots, but the more I study the matchups, the more I like the Eagles plus the points...

Others?

Thanks,

THE SHRINK

 

[Jarbo]

I believe the last 3 SuperBowls were that way, Dogs covered. I am leaning towards the Eagles as well. I'm hoping the line keeps moving up, maybe 8 1/2?

 

[D2bets]

Eagles D is rock solid (discounting final 2 exhibitions, around 14ppg). McNabb is the firist mobile QB NE will have faced all year. Game will decided by turnovers. Take the points....I'll be taking 7.5 of them. 20-16 Eagles. GL Shrink. :toast:

 

[TheGeneral+]

SHRINK, I am thinking Eagles straight-up. I think Tom is getting to much into Brad Pitt mode and McNabb is ready to get in superbowl winner mode.

 

[bookie]

Everyone talks about the weak NFC but in my mind any team that reaches a final in a championship game is a very good team. Having said that, I will take my chances with Philly and the 7 points.

 

[Rainbow]

I think this game might be like last years game. Eagles score a late TD to cover.

 

[Jarbo]

I think this game might be like last years game. Eagles score a late TD to cover.

Unless I'm mistaken, last year NE made a last second Field Goal to pull out the win but not the cover.

 

[Dante]

I think the Beagles get the cover..and MAY win

 

[unochamps]

i like ne -7, if the line goes higher phila.

phila is a good, tough team but they need a healthy T.O. to have a shot.

ne will take westbrooke out of the gm and shut down phila's short passing gm.

a healthy T.O. would be able to stretch that ne d and get some big plays.

the current phila wr's, even thou improved, will not be able to do that.

i can't see phila's offense pecking their way down field.

this is a lean for me right now, but thats what i see.

also phila's d is pretty good, they will blitz u every play, bad news is brady can also burn you when u blitz.

 

[Rainbow]

Unless I'm mistaken, last year NE made a last second Field Goal to pull out the win but not the cover.

NE, did indeed scored last. but Carolina drove down the field to tie the game late, and when that happened NE had no chance to cover.

 

[JimFiestSux]

Mr. Shrink,
I think the value will be on the under. 2 Solid defenses. Yes Brady made Pitts defense look like men against boys BUT you will see a different attack on Brady as Philly's Defensive coordinator is a very smart man anf giving 2 weeks to prepare I think BOTH D's will be on target. Look for this game to be played in upper 30's to low 40's as far as points go.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Seems like a lot fo Eagle supporters out here...

 

[wantitall4moi]

Interesting thread so far...


That means that guys who like the Eagles might want to think about betting them now since it seems like most of the 'smart' guys are liking them now. So it stands to reason that the money will come in on Phi. Also since T.O is probably going to play, some public money might come in as well. So it stands to reason that this game might go back to the 6.5 it passed through. Maybe back to the "original' 6? I use original there since this game had about as many 'opening' numbers as I have ever seen for a Super Bowl.

But since I took the +274 that Pinnacle was offering on the Eagles last week to win the SB, I also have alittle lee way with the Pats.

Of course I could get Polish middled if this does fall into one of those situations. But I am proabably going to take my chances and take NE minus the points at the best odds and spread combination I can find, at a roughly 2-1 ratio against what I am looking to get back on Phi.

I could of course take NE on the ML at -265, but if I was looking to scalp I would have taken NE -185 or whatever they were when the line opened -4 at more than a couple places.

But it is a typical SB buy one side early, and then look to buy the other side back ate. The scalps that are available this time of year are very nice, assuming of course you have the side you took the lead on win.

 

[mj23]

Shrink are you going to the Whiskey party for the Super bowl??

 

[Rainbow]

I have to agree with Jim on the under too. I think Brady will throw alot of short passes in this game, I think Phily has the best secondary in the NFL, and for that reason brady will have problems going deep. NE defense is solid as a rock. I think both teams will have problems moving the football.

 

[D2bets]

Want, you have Phil ML +274 and you're going to take NE ATS? I guess they those bridgejumper specials. Even at -6.5-110 I don't like it. By my calculations, you're betting around -580 that you don't get middled. Don't like this at all.

 

[dougstewart]

I bet the Pats -6.5 last sunday after their win over Pitt, but now I like the Eagles. I originally admired Brady for playing as well as he did last sunday after having a fever of 104 on saturday. But now I feel he has bad karma in suing his old sponsor, Cadillac, for $2 Million, which is more than they originally paid him.

 

[D2bets]

Want, I don't think a few sharps here are going to cause the line to drop? The Super Bowl is at least the one game where the line is made more for the squares than the sharps and the books are stone card scared off of their number. I think it stays rock solid '7' with individual shops moving the juice as their action dictates. There will be a rogue shop or two hanging a 6.5 or a 7.5 but for the most part I doubt we will see much line movement, regardless of T.O. news. I think the only news on that front that could move the line is if we are told he definitely will not play and then maybe we get more 7.5's. But at this point I think everyone expects him to go out there but nothing between now and then will convince anyone that he can be his usual self.

At this point I see no reason to bet unless one of your books hang a rogue number that you like. I'm watching for a solid +7.5-110 or better and I imagine NE bettors are looking for a -6.5-110 or better.

 

[wantitall4moi]

D2- I like NE. You know me, I will take free money every time. But the pay back on the Phi future is not that huge. I only bet it knowing it was no where near high enough.


To be honest I didn't think NE would be this big a fave. I thought it would sit at 6 and I would have more time to choose what to do. But it didn't work out that way.

So it is a case of making a 'value' bet and then following it up with an opinionated bet.

Similar to what I did with NE last week against Pitt. I bought NE -3 for +119 for quite a bit (anticipating a buy back somewhere). But when Pitt wasn't moving to the +3.5 I had to take a common +3 -105. But for quite a bit less than I was looking for.

So that was another opinion "value" split. Had Pitt won, or covered then I still lose money. But it was insurance I guess.

If I get NE -6 (which I am not so sure of). I figure I have a 12% chance of getting middled , and maybe another 3-5% chance to get sided. If I only get 6.5 then yes, about a 15-17% chance of getting (polish)middled.

But I like NE quite a bit here, so it is the gambler coming out in me rather than the hedger.

Ity is all a matter of how much Philly will come down. Also if NE come s down to a -6 fave (doubtful but possible if the moeny gets crazy) then the ML should be more of a value as well. Also Phi may take some ML action independantly.

I have my breakdowns done, and am basically looking at options. But I do have a strong opinion on this one,and that is always dangerous when you are looking to make moeny no matter what.

 

[SENDITIN]

You should have loaded up early on the Pats moneyline and backfill with some Philly at +7.5 by game time. Pats to win...Philly to cover via back door.