Probaby Pavlik taking a fairly close decision if for nothing else than his higher work rate and the fact he'll be the aggressor and the one forcing the action. But don't be fooled by Pavlik's record -- as B-Hop pointed out in the HBO Countdown show promoting the fight, Pavlik's fought 3 real fighters his entire professional career. That said, Over 11.5 (-211 at Pinny) is a better bet than Pavlik -400ish. Pavlik has made quick work of his opposition most of his career (again, he hasn't fought world class competition until the last year and a half), but he's spent most of that time fighting at 160 lbs. (tomorrow night being at 170), and B-Hop has a great chin and smarts inside the ring few can touch. He'll do everything to make this an ugly fight and stay out of the way of Pavlik's right hand. And even though I think Pavlik ultimately takes a decision, he's a very flawed fighter with almost no defense. Because of this, I wouldn't put it past Hop to hold and jab his way to an ugly win. I am, however, confident this fight goes to the cards. Pavlik can punch, but Hop's not going anywhere.