Thoughts on Friday CFB ISU/Army and Cal/NMSU

[Kojak]

I do not have a great feel for either one of these two games tonight so I thought I would start a thread that we all can use to gain some info from everyone to make a good logical decision. Right now these are no plays for me but want to see if we can move these games off of the sideline. Anyway here are my thoughts on the two games to get it started:

Iowa State @ Army....Army has shown us they can already be beaten by Big 12's worst in Baylor by 10 and it should have been more. They have yet to cover a game this year. Cyclones coming off of a bye and a big win over Iowa with Nebraska on the docket next week so possibility of looking ahead. Cyclones have a strong defense so don't expect Army to get too many but possibility of Army up for National TV game. Cyclones imo have the ability to cover this 17 but could they play down to competition like they did vs I believe Northern Iowa. Hard to lay 17 on road vs team that is not dominating.

California @ New Mexico State...NMSU under Hal Mumme has shown me nothing so far at NMSU. His team has not shown any ability to score which is a Mumme trademark and have not been able to stop anyone. Cal has shown the ability to score even with their injuries on offense to Longshore and Lynch but they have also played down to competition in every game minus the game at Washington. Sacramento State and Illinois were not very strong performances. With that being said, NMSU is not as good as anyone and that could include Sacramento State who is on Cal's played schedule. NMSU does have a favorable trend in that they are 6-1 ats as a homedog of more than a td since 98. Like Army, never on National TV so could rise to the occasion. Laying 30 in this game seems like the square play and maybe the only play but hard for me to do it.

What I am looking to find out from everyone is if we can come up with solid reasoning on why not to bet both favorites in tonights games or which is the better dog play. I think that if you bet both favs here u will likely do no worse than a split but that is still losing money. So I am looking to see if either of these games like I mentioned are worth betting!BOL

 

[SSI]

i definately think you can over think things tonight... im going with iowa st, got -16.5 at pinny a while ago, notice its -17 now...

 

[WMU33]

Hey Kojak

Sorry about those late couple of scores last night with airforce..it helped me with my two team teaser though. Anyways, My thoughts tonight are definately both favorites. I lean towards California as being the better pick if your going to chose one. They have the 11 rated run game in the nation while New Mexico is 103 overall against the run. New Mexico is also averaging negative yards at home with the run themselves rating them a dismal 107. Making it hard to set up air game. California should easily come in and control the game with thier run game making a long and tiring night for NMST. I think their key will be ball control early so that NMST can't get their air attack going and once Cal pops up two or three toucdowns this one could get out of hand by the third quarter. Expect NMST to come out fired up and don't be surprised if they are within seven by the end of the first, but Cal should have a three touchdown lead by half. Good luck my man and keep the winners coming

 

[Conan]

I'm staying away from CAL this week. Sometimes I get a little confused about which NM team is better. Without looking things up, I think NM St. is the lowlifer between them. But that doesn't matter at this point.

The problem is Ayoob, CAL's QB. He went 0-10 passing after he was put in his first game. Then he sharpens up in game two and he went 17-27 with 271 tds and 4 TD passes. Then last week vs. Illinois, he went 1-9 in the first half, but came back to go 7-8 in the second half. So far his completion rate is only 46% on the year. That sort of inconsistency makes it hard to gamble on CAL. Laying 29 points is tough to do when you don't know which Ayoob will show up.

 

[cr8onjr]

ISU -17 @ Army

Actually a good spot for ISU as they had a week off to revel in Iowa W and then to get ready for Army, plus they actually got to scout the Baylor game which is unusual. ISU offense has been clicking better, Hicks at RB is healthy and should get 120yds+ tonight. Meyer has been making good decisions and Blythe, Davis and Flynn will outclass the Army Db's. ISU rush defense has been stout with DL playing very well. Berryman back this season from prison has brought a new level of play to the defense. Only real weakness is in the kicking game, but Culbertson will kick FG's/PAT's after a 3 week break. Punter is quite good. Coach Mac has his team at the right emotional level for this game, Friday night ESPN2, etc. and the Clones will not let up on the gas.

ISU 38 Army 10

glta

cr8onjr

 

[Kojak]

wmu,

That Utah game was a bad beat last night but I will tell you that got a stroke of good luck after game playing online Let it Ride Poker as I hit a 4 of a kind for $500 and about an hour later a straight flush for the 2nd time since coming back from RX Bash about a month ago so all is good. Anyway your thoughts are my what I was thinking as well that Cal is the better of the 2 bets but still can't pull the trigger on either one of these games yet. I think under in Army/ISU may be best play of night . What are your thoughts on that one?

 

[WMU33]

kojak,

Congrats on the poker luck, always nice to pad a late loser with some poker winnings. As to my thoughts on the under, I really couldn't lean one way or the other. Im stuck cuz of Army's offense and we haven't seen Iowa St. on the road yet so how will they respond? I see Iowa St scoring somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-35 and possibly 7-10 for Army. Now with my calucations your right around the total. If army puts up two TDs I believe its going over. This is just a slight feeling not a confident prediction. I put my bets in and Im going with both road favorites tonight.. I went with both dogs last night so I might as well switch it up. I have to stand up in a wedding tonight so I won't be able to really watch the games, but at least their is a premium bar:drink:
Good luck again and my safe and humble advice is to play both favs and hope too catch two...hey you had poker luck last night why not get some pigskin luck tonight

 

[antipublic]

I'm an ISU alum, and feel I know them pretty well. Hit the ISU ML & Under in the Iowa game.

Placed my wager on Army +17.5, and I hope like hell I lose it :sad3:

 

[fremen]

kojak i know your not a big fan of line movement but the last couple espn tv games when joe pub is all over the fav like its the cure for cancer and the line goes the other way. the fav has not coverd look at the boise st gm the over was geting beat off the board and it kept going down, no cover. then last night everyone was on utah i know it was kind of fluke but still no cover. it keeps going on with a lot of ncaafb games. it just seems very strange that everyone is on iowa like 85% and the line went down 1.5. to me it just seems risky at best. also just a note i work in iraq and i can tell you that army knows that all the joes in the sand box are going to get to see this game on afn just a thought they will probley be pretty pumped.

 

[blueedwards]

i have army +17.5. played it small so i have a little something going tonight...really have no feel either way. when in doubt, i take the dog.

 

[vegasjunkie]

Kojak, On Wed. you liked cal-21. Why the change? GL VJ

 

[JinnRikki]

I read somewhere coach Tedford is not happy with the Bears 1st half performances and is looking for more balance throughout the game. This would indicate that a 1st half play on Cal might not be a bad idea. I also think they were a bit surprised by Illinois last week putting 20 points on them, so just a guess but they may be looking to tighten up that defense in preparation for the meat of their PAC 10 season. I think a final of 42-9 Cal is about right.

As far as Iowa St. v. Army I'm still up in the air. Will the extra week between the match up with Iowa cure the hangover from that emotional game, I don't know. I do know if Army doesn't play better this week than it did against Baylor the Cyclones will crush them.

 

[vegasjunkie]

Sorry, I meant Cal-29.

 

[Insiders]

Kojak

You know that i am NOT a favorite player, much less a chalk player on the road.
Iowa St has had time to recover from the win over in state rival Iowa.
Baylor, thats right Baylor was 5.5 chalk at Army last week. Now Baylor is always the bottom feeder of the big 12 and Baylor gets the win by 10, and blew a few chances to score.
Army supposedly is tinkering with some new stuff this week (they surely need to do something), so my thoughts are Iowa St crushes Army here.
Go Sooners won every big 12 game on the board last week and he is on the Iowa St crew here, so i am going to go out on a very chalky limb on the road and have Iowa St going for me.


Cal vs New Mexico St.
Another mismatch as Cal can name score here, but its one thing laying 16.5 and laying 30 on the road. Cal maybe the best of the 2 road chalks tonight but i just dont have ANY feel for that game.

So it will be Iowa St and whatever bucsfan "fav" play for me this evening.
Tommorrow there is LOTS of things to do.

 

[ghoul31]

my super teaser

Iowa st -7
Cal -18.5
and i threw in a saturday game
virginia tech/Ga Tech over 30

 

[Kojak]

Well guys, here is what I decided to go with for tonight. I will tell you I will count them towards record for recordkeeping sake but all are 1 unit plays.

Army 1st half +10

Iowa State/Army over 44.5

New Mexico State +29.5

Best of luck and like I said not strong plays on these so be careful!

 

[NEWPORT]

This Is Newport Crusher

same as a KOJAK KILLER!!! LOL!!!

ARMY team total over 7 FIRST HALF....Minimum a push

 

[TANG]

same as a KOJAK KILLER!!! LOL!!!

ARMY team total over 7 FIRST HALF....Minimum a push

unless they get 6,3,2 or 0

 

[Kojak]

Newport,

I love it! The crush your man play. People don't have a sense of humor but I love it. LOL BOL

 

[the_snowkid]

kojak... didnt u have cal -29 on your post cf week ending 24?