This stock market heading... is BULLSH*T?

[Jetplane]

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/25/mar...tm?postversion=2009012508&eref=rss_topstories

Well, according to the read I really think it's dumb that we need to "prepare" and have a freaking frantic about this.

 

[rolltide]

will be an interesting week for sure

 

[t2050]

Expectations are pretty low so think most of the bad is already priced in. Going to be more about what companies say about the future quarters.

 

[quantumleap]

Expectations are pretty low so think most of the bad is already priced in. Going to be more about what companies say about the future quarters.

From what I've read there are analysts who estimate what the performance of the past quarter is for most companies. Sometimes there are several analysts. Investors buy or sell stock based upon these estimates.

If news comes out that is different than these estimates, the value of the stock changes once this is found out. That is why if a company's estimated loss during a quarter was quite bad the stock price can actually rise after the results are released if those results are better than estimates. The price was factored in previously from estimates and now the real performance is better.

I've read that just more than 50% of companies' results released this year have been worse than estimated. It will be an interesting week.

 

[t2050]

From what I've read there are analysts who estimate what the performance of the past quarter is for most companies. Sometimes there are several analysts. Investors buy or sell stock based upon these estimates.

If news comes out that is different than these estimates, the value of the stock changes once this is found out. That is why if a company's estimated loss during a quarter was quite bad the stock price can actually rise after the results are released if those results are better than estimates. The price was factored in previously from estimates and now the real performance is better.

I've read that just more than 50% of companies' results released this year have been worse than estimated. It will be an interesting week, but yes it looks like a scary week

ahhhh
Not exactly
You never see a company beat or meet estimates and tank? The stock market is a leading indicator not a lagging indicator. Most of the time a company blows away earnings estimates it is also followed by optimistic statements about the future and vice versa.

Would you rush in and buy a stock that blows away their estimate but says next quarter sales look sluggish?

 

[quantumleap]

ahhhh
Not exactly
You never see a company beat or meet estimates and tank? The stock market is a leading indicator not a lagging indicator. Most of the time a company blows away earnings estimates it is also followed by optimistic statements about the future and vice versa.

Would you rush in and buy a stock that blows away their estimate but says next quarter sales look sluggish?

Ah. Good point t. Thanks.

 

[Jetplane]

I agree, it is a leading indicator... most of my stocks are doing fine still and the market looks to be up currently.

I'm in on ACH and it's up 10% on the day.