I will preface this post to say that I'm not going to waste my time with the 3-4 posters who monopolize this forum with their biased, one sided articles that are nothing but confirmation bias for them.
I'm finding that many of the polls in the battleground states are certainly within the margin of error. I tried to find out what the pollsters had done differently from their debacle in 2016, and about the only thing I could find is some are taking into account the education level of likely voters. Admittedly I wish they were more transparent about that.
What is interesting is that the Democrats are not hitting the 70% range on early voting (that is the number they traditionally need to lead by to feel comfortable saying they would win a state). Typically Democrats are outvoted by Republicans by at least a 2-1 margin on election day. And usually, the Democrats only way to combat that is to have a good ground game (i.e. knocking on as many doors as possible the week or two before election day, and helping to transport voters to the polls on election day). The problem is with Covid in play, very little of that will be going on.
Things are certainly getting interesting.
You can see some of the vote margins here
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363
I'm finding that many of the polls in the battleground states are certainly within the margin of error. I tried to find out what the pollsters had done differently from their debacle in 2016, and about the only thing I could find is some are taking into account the education level of likely voters. Admittedly I wish they were more transparent about that.
What is interesting is that the Democrats are not hitting the 70% range on early voting (that is the number they traditionally need to lead by to feel comfortable saying they would win a state). Typically Democrats are outvoted by Republicans by at least a 2-1 margin on election day. And usually, the Democrats only way to combat that is to have a good ground game (i.e. knocking on as many doors as possible the week or two before election day, and helping to transport voters to the polls on election day). The problem is with Covid in play, very little of that will be going on.
Things are certainly getting interesting.
You can see some of the vote margins here
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363
