Thinking About Putting a Lot of $$$ on Rutgers/UNC This Week...

[jayrocker26]

Regarding Rutgers/Fresno State Week 1

If I had a gun to my head the two sides I like are Fresno State +4 and Under 58, if you can still get them. But keep in mind I have exactly $0 wagered on this game myself

Oh how I hate picking the two right sides during a Rutgers game and having $0 riding on it. It is human nature for me to want to jump all over this next game since I feel quite strongly in whatever my "unannounced" position is.

Rutgers/North Carolina Week 3

Average Line: Rutgers -4.5

I am not going to say exactly which side I am on this game just yet. First, I am interested in hearing the thoughts of some Rx posters, primarily those who follow the ACC or North Carolina closely, as when I feel this strongly about a game I usually like to sit back and think it through. Second, where is this line going in the opinion of the rest of you? Will the Fresno State game play on people's minds and bring it close to -3, or will the McNeese State game play on people's minds and bring it up near -6? Or will both play on people's minds and will it stay between -4 and -5?

Just to keep everyone guessing I'll throw out some valid points that would hint to a play on either Rutgers or North Carolina..I would love some feedback..

- Rutgers needed a late INT from CB Manny Collins to seal the win on the road against a much weaker UNC team during their last meeting in 2006 (21-16). Many prognosticators have the 2008 Tar Heels reaching a bowl game, hinting many think they could very easily win this game. According to the experts UNC is better in 2008 than in 2006, but is Rutgers better in 2008 than in 2006?

- Rutgers thoroughly dominated Fresno State everywhere but the scoreboard during the entire 1st Half. It seemed as though Rutgers was cursed, and nobody can argue that they left at least 20 points off the scoreboard as they trotted into halftime tied 0-0.

- North Carolina HC Butch Davis has put together some stellar recruiting classes over the past few years, and has a few gems along the defensive line. Rutgers was unable to run the ball on crucial short yardage situations throughout the Fresno State game, and Fresno State has a low-rated run defense as it is! How can Rutgers expect to run the ball consistently against some of the blue-chip defensive lineman that North Carolina has up front?

- In 2007 I won a lot of $$ playing Maryland +18.5 against Rutgers. The ACC is still the ACC, and the Big East is still the Big East.

- While Rutgers looked like a well oiled machine during the majority of the 1st Half last week, well except for that part when they were attempting to actually score, North Carolina struggled mightily against FCS McNeese State. Rutgers is due for a big game, right? North Carolina is not as good as advertised and will be exposed against a quality opponent, right?

I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on anything regarding this game.

 

[BigM+]

don't follow the acc or unc... but from a rhetorical standpoint, rutgers is the obvious pick here... same reasons you mentioned in your last bullet... couldn't agree more even though they were kind of tongue in cheek

 

[fulenwider2]

I saw the UNC - Mcneese State game in person. I wouldn't worry about running on UNC's front four. Mcneese State gained 400 yards on UNC and UNC had 0 sacks. If Mcneese State hadn't dropped a few 3rd down passes, it would have been worse. The supposedly stout defensive line was underwhelming to say the least.

Moreover, Carolina still doesn't have a running game. They couldn't do anything on the ground against Mcneese state. I don't look for that to change against Rutgers. Rutgers will dominate the time of possession, as UNC will be a one dimensional offense.

I get the feeling UNC, who by the way hasn't won a game outside the state of North Carolina since 2002, is going to lay a real stinker Thursday night.

 

[BigM+]

literally the only thing keeping my from going big on rutgers is the fact that the game is on a thursday and could be one of those dreaded thursday night fakeouts

 

[rollywood]

carolina is a pussy team.they play pussy football,like most of the acc.if rutgers comes out and bust 'em in the mouth,carolina will assume fetal position.if rutgers wants it.they can have it.good luck.

 

[seriousaddiction]

UNC more athletic IMO...if Rutgers lets them pass the ball up and down the field with HICKS catching everything thrown at him then RUT is in trouble....I see them being more prepared though with a needed 10 days to recoup...If RUT runs the ball hard and often they will win...I say RUT wins in low scoring game...24-13

 

[Railbird]

dont underestimate these 1aa teams, the gap diffrence isnt as big as advertised.

 

[unc50]

whats up jayrocker. if u want a carolina perspective or acc perspective, then i think i can give it to you. although, i am slightly confused about the quality of the big east this year, i assure you...you have little to worry about from the acc, unless you speak of wake forest.

i too, was in attendance at mcneese st, where we jumped on top of them early, only to lose our mojo and nearly half the crowd due to a weather delay for nearly 2 hours. if the game were played in chapel hill, i would probably still take rutgers, being that unc has NO LINEBACKER PLAY.

Butch put all his eggs in the bag in trying to recruit Arthur Brown and Sean Spence, now Canes, and phenomenal athletic linebackers. UNC has a good d line and very good secondary, but no linebacker play. This of course, overworks the d line and puts more pressure on our safetys and corners to come up for tackles. unc has a huge journalism school and most of these dbags in the media pumpin us up are alumni themselves, so it's just the average unc media bias. we are not there yet.

we need linebackers, we need a bruising rb (got one nxt year), we need some heart, and i see none of that changing thursday night in hostile piscattaway or wherever.

remember yo...last time unc played a thursday night game it was with butthead bunting and we got romped like 20 something to 0. i saw rutgers choke against fresno and don't see that happening again, at night on thursday where rutgers is awfully dangerous. see a big win here for rutgers. 14-20 pts. i hope im wrong, but im a realist. also like so cal and michigan this wk.

what u think jay?

 

[jayrocker26]

I have liked Rutgers in this spot all week. The Fresno State game was just one of those strange, 'I can't believe all of this is happening in the same game' type affairs. Dropped TD passes, a shanked FG, a bad FG snap, a goal line stand, I mean in the 1st Half alone Rutgers should have easily had anywhere from 16-20 points on the board, minimum. Add to that a missed opportunity on a Dennis Campbell 3rd Quarter Punt Return for TD called back by an illegal block in the back that wasn't even a key block on the play. But the bottom line is they did not score until the 4th Quarter, and I am not here trying to make excuses for them, I am just saying, last Monday was a ridiculous series of consecutive unfortunate events, and I do not plan on seeing a repeat performance of that again anytime soon. The Rutgers Defense held Fresno State in check for the entire 1st Half, giving up only a handful of 1st Downs and forcing consecutive three and outs. As the humidity picked up in the 2nd Half the defense began to break down a little, and 3 defensive mental errors cost Rutgers 17 points. The shell-shocked offense that moved the ball between the 20's all day long finally got on the board in the 4th Quarter to cut the lead to 10-7, but the third of three defensive mental errors on a 3rd and 23 play eventually cost Rutgers the game. Did they play bad? Yes, of course in all three phases of the game they did. But are they that bad? No way.

I think they come out against North Carolina hungry and with something to prove, BIG TIME. Keep in mind I still think they have the superior talent overall. The only thing I don't like about this game is Butch Davis (Schiano's mentor) and the fact that the spread is currently 4.5, which in my opinion was higher than I anticipated.

 

[unc50]

spot on spot on. however, the line is way way too low. it should be around 9. rutgers -9. just check out unc's road games last yr, piss poor.

at wake- big loss 27pts
at usf- big loss 27pts
at state- close loss 4pts
at ecu- close loss 3pts
at vt- loss 7pts
at gt- close loss 2pts

if u go back to 2yrs ago, our road games, we lost to clemson, miami, uva, nd all by about 24 pts on avg, and a 1pt win at duke on ot.

especially, night road games- this is just unchartered territory for my heels. we were humbled against mcneese st, and now we are doubting ourselves. the only reason unc was to do good this year is because of their light conference schedule and uconn and nd at home.

schiano and the refs will make this ugly. to beat the heels you run the football. run run run. we can't stop it. if schiano is smart this is what he will do. we have nfl talent at both safetys so i wouldn't test us there.

i still feel this line is a gift.

 

[groundhog11]

good luck jayrocker....i will be on rut too....

 

[jayrocker26]

The problem with this game that I continue to have (I still haven't made a bet on it yet) is that I really think Rutgers as a whole was grossly overrated in 2006, and of course in 2007. When you look back at that 2006 team, they had one larger than life performance during the 2nd Half of the Louisville game. Other than that, not much. They beat the piss out of a down Illinois team, won close games on the road against a young North Carolina team, and a young South Florida team just getting used to Grothe at QB. Give them all the credit in the world, they did open 9-0, but blew it all at Cincinnati (the Kryptonite to our Superman) and then missed out on a chance at a Big East Championship by losing to West Virginia in Morgantown in 3 OT's, even though Jarrett Brown started and played the whole game not Pat White.

Looking back now I realize how overrated that '06 team was. I mean South Florida, Pitt, and UConn were not quite there yet in '06. Even Cincinnati wasn't, and they still embarassed us the week after the biggest win in Rutgers history. In '07 they all improved and we stayed about the same. Thus, an 8-5 season. Seems as though we blossomed just one year earlier, and maybe wins like '06 over #3 Louisville and '07 over #2 South Florida have blinded us Rutgers fans into seeing a team for more than they actually are.

Is Rutgers just an average team that during one game in each of the last two seasons plays well above their own ability and pulls off a stunning upset? I mean at this point I don't even know. A lot of questions will be answered Thursday. If Rutgers comes out and wins a 31-17 type game, I'll be impressed and think that 7-5 or 8-4 in 2008 are not out of the question. It will also prove to me that Rutgers is a legitamate contender for the Big East Championship (although they in NO WAY will win that this year, too tough of a road conference schedule in October) in the years coming. But if they lose to North Carolina, you are looking at 6-6, and let me tell you, I am in the stands every game, we experienced too much too fast, 1-11 to 11-2 in a few years, some people are getting disenchanted with Schiano. No kidding. Most fans are blaming the 'bad offensive play-calling' on Schiano, although that is uninformed and should be directly mostly at OC John McNulty.

Regardless people are frustrated, and most fans have to shell out about $350 a year in donations to the school for the right to renew season tickets. I know it is a lot worse at many other schools, but Rutgers fans aren't happy.

But the remedy for all of this would be a nice double digit victory over a formidable opponent like North Carolina. I still wish the line would be -3, but I'm not sure. Looking for more thoughts here before I make a move, but if I do make a move I think its on Rutgers ATS and probably semi-big.

 

[jayrocker26]

Line up to -5 and -5.5. Pricing me right out of this one.

 

[unc50]

fear not jay. this one should be over at halftime. rutgers rolls, home teams continue to dominate on thursday, see a trend? usf tomorrow. rutgers by about 14 tonight.

 

[krh7]

don't think the points will matter in this one. UNC by 7-10.

everything you said about rutgers peaking in '06 is true. this is a game of two teams going in opposite directions.

the fact that you were not sure about your RU squad this year (and the ridiculous 2 pt line move on a TV game) makes this an easy call for me.

 

[bellyputter]

don't think the points will matter in this one. UNC by 7-10.

everything you said about rutgers peaking in '06 is true. this is a game of two teams going in opposite directions.

the fact that you were not sure about your RU squad this year (and the ridiculous 2 pt line move on a TV game) makes this an easy call for me.

The game opened 5 1/2.

 

[a153]

The game opened 5 1/2.

Well it went to 4.5 pretty quick then.

 

[bellyputter]

Well it went to 4.5 pretty quick then.

On Sunday night, you can move a game a point on a couple thousand dollars.