~These Are Three Distinct Techniques of Handicapping~ I Incorporate In My Predictions~

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~These Are Three Distinct Techniques of Handicapping~ I Incorporate In My Predictions~

NFL handicapping is the art of making predictions about individual NFL matchups to determine which team has the greatest chance of winning a specific game, thus profiting from these predictions. When it comes to professional football, there are three distinct techniques of handicapping I incorporate in my formulas Rx members that I like to share with you. Fundamental, Situational, and Technical. From A fellow Handicapper, I have known personally Allen Moody some years back. Believe me his record in NFL betting speaks for itself.[ Not as good as mine!!! Just kidding Allen!!!!]. I use a 75-percent Fundamental (Statistical) Handicapping, 15-percent Situational Handicapping, and 10-percent Technical Handicapping breakdown, electing to give more weight to the predicted statistical output like he does, which I use in my NFL formulas. So this a synopsis what Allen Moody is saying Rx members,when you are handicapping games.


'' Fundamental Handicapping (aka Statistical Handicapping)" Use of statistics, power ratings, and personnel match-up to make selections.Typically, this method of handicapping takes the most consideration into NFL weather report, football injuries, and game time temperature. Since the NFL has fewer games in a season, compared to that of other sports league's the team is less prone to emotional components. This makes statistics more accurate as a team is ready, motivated, and prepared to play each week. However, this does mean there are less statistics to examine.

"Situational Handicapping" All about assessing let down factors, scheduling, motivation, revenge games, and non-mathematical systems. Breaking NFL news is a critical component in situational handicapping. It concentrates on how teams fare in particular situations, such as being the underdog or title of some sort at stake.This form of handicapping is more prevalent in college football because of the maturity level of the players. It can be presumed that professional NFL players are less susceptible to mood swings and are more level-headed. (not always, of course)".


"Technical Handicapping" Investigates the technical circumstances of each team and game looks for the historical trends.Good for taking the coaching into consideration, as their game plan can be taken into account.Typically the method of handicapping which carries the least weight. While some might be partial to specific method of handicapping, there’s a lot to be gained from a combination of Fundamental, Situational, and Technical handicapping. Professional NFL handicappers, such as I am Rx members is being expert in finding the balance and capitalizing on sports betting. The look for the best NFL matchups as represented by the NFL odds and football lines each week.

These philosophies I use are from are from stat's, information power rating analysis from J.J.Bascus power rating[ Reno N.V..] considered the best 80% true. I have been diligent in my philosophy, Just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games] Use money lines as a evaluation, with and against the point spreads, Weather,injuries, Power ratings, Defense and Offense analyzes, Team coaches comparisons. My betting style press one time on 2nd bet after a win on 1st bet and will go back to a Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once. I did have a streak in winning bets also streak in losing bets. By pressing a win[ its worth 3-1 on the money and I can overcome some of my losses for NFL season. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction. Rx members you can always find me at Caesars palace sportsbook, Las Vegas N.V.on the strip where I bet. Would love to see you all.!!!!!!!


NOTE... Technical analysis has come under scrutiny by fundamental handicappers and some sports bettors due to the fact that anybody searching a database randomly for patterns will find situations that have produced very good results. However, the key is to look for situations that make sense. I don't use trends such as "The Steelers are 13-2 in week number 7" (Do they actually know that week 7 is their week and gain confidence from it?). If it's a weeknight MAC game" (the more narrow the point spread range is the more likely it is a random occurrence and not a true indicator of a real pattern).

Posted By Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT


PS. I am always open to constructive criticism of my threads & discussions!!! Thanks for reading my thread Rx members[ Very good luck to you all in NFL season. When I win, you win too!!!!!!!! Why? If we as a group are that good in handicapping our games, then we make everybody else look good around us, because its makes all of us look better. All my threads & predictions are on Rx sports Forum.


PSS. Information of Fundamental, Situational, and Technical NFL techniques was taken from Allen Moody philosophies, which I respect as A NFL handicapper.

Our Big $Score$ System Smitty Ryan, HarryTheHat And J.J.Bascus 1974 Superbowl http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=70067&d=1403717524​
 

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~These Are Three Distinct Techniques of Handicapping~ I Incorporate In My Predictions~

NFL handicapping is the art of making predictions about individual NFL matchups to determine which team has the greatest chance of winning a specific game, thus profiting from these predictions. When it comes to professional football, there are three distinct techniques of handicapping I incorporate in my formulas Rx members that I like to share with you. Fundamental, Situational, and Technical. From A fellow Handicapper, I have known personally Allen Moody some years back. Believe me his record in NFL betting speaks for itself.[ Not as good as mine!!! Just kidding Allen!!!!]. I use a 75-percent Fundamental (Statistical) Handicapping, 15-percent Situational Handicapping, and 10-percent Technical Handicapping breakdown, electing to give more weight to the predicted statistical output like he does, which I use in my NFL formulas. So this a synopsis what Allen Moody is saying Rx members,when you are handicapping games.


'' Fundamental Handicapping (aka Statistical Handicapping)" Use of statistics, power ratings, and personnel match-up to make selections.Typically, this method of handicapping takes the most consideration into NFL weather report, football injuries, and game time temperature. Since the NFL has fewer games in a season, compared to that of other sports league's the team is less prone to emotional components. This makes statistics more accurate as a team is ready, motivated, and prepared to play each week. However, this does mean there are less statistics to examine.

"Situational Handicapping" All about assessing let down factors, scheduling, motivation, revenge games, and non-mathematical systems. Breaking NFL news is a critical component in situational handicapping. It concentrates on how teams fare in particular situations, such as being the underdog or title of some sort at stake.This form of handicapping is more prevalent in college football because of the maturity level of the players. It can be presumed that professional NFL players are less susceptible to mood swings and are more level-headed. (not always, of course)".


"Technical Handicapping" Investigates the technical circumstances of each team and game looks for the historical trends.Good for taking the coaching into consideration, as their game plan can be taken into account.Typically the method of handicapping which carries the least weight. While some might be partial to specific method of handicapping, there’s a lot to be gained from a combination of Fundamental, Situational, and Technical handicapping. Professional NFL handicappers, such as I am Rx members is being expert in finding the balance and capitalizing on sports betting. The look for the best NFL matchups as represented by the NFL odds and football lines each week.

These philosophies I use are from are from stat's, information power rating analysis from J.J.Bascus power rating[ Reno N.V..] considered the best 80% true. I have been diligent in my philosophy, Just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games] Use money lines as a evaluation, with and against the point spreads, Weather,injuries, Power ratings, Defense and Offense analyzes, Team coaches comparisons. My betting style press one time on 2nd bet after a win on 1st bet and will go back to a Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once. I did have a streak in winning bets also streak in losing bets. By pressing a win[ its worth 3-1 on the money and I can overcome some of my losses for NFL season. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction. Rx members you can always find me at Caesars palace sportsbook, Las Vegas N.V.on the strip where I bet. Would love to see you all.!!!!!!!


NOTE... Technical analysis has come under scrutiny by fundamental handicappers and some sports bettors due to the fact that anybody searching a database randomly for patterns will find situations that have produced very good results. However, the key is to look for situations that make sense. I don't use trends such as "The Steelers are 13-2 in week number 7" (Do they actually know that week 7 is their week and gain confidence from it?). If it's a weeknight MAC game" (the more narrow the point spread range is the more likely it is a random occurrence and not a true indicator of a real pattern).

Posted By Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT


PS. I am always open to constructive criticism of my threads & discussions!!! Thanks for reading my thread Rx members[ Very good luck to you all in NFL season. When I win, you win too!!!!!!!! Why? If we as a group are that good in handicapping our games, then we make everybody else look good around us, because its makes all of us look better. All my threads & predictions are on Rx sports Forum.


PSS. Information of Fundamental, Situational, and Technical NFL techniques was taken from Allen Moody philosophies, which I respect as A NFL handicapper.

Our Big $Score$ System Smitty Ryan, HarryTheHat And J.J.Bascus 1974 Superbowl http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=70067&d=1403717524​

I thought your write was very interesting. You bring up some points that I should probably start considering in my model. I started handicapping NFL games several years ago. My model is purely statistical and I look for 'mispricing' in my line versus the vegas line. I need to start thinking about some of the technical and situational scenarios to fine tune my bets each week. Please keep these type of posts coming. As someone relatively new to the handicapping world I appreciate the guideance. BOL this week
 
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I thought your write was very interesting. You bring up some points that I should probably start considering in my model. I started handicapping NFL games several years ago. My model is purely statistical and I look for 'mispricing' in my line versus the vegas line. I need to start thinking about some of the technical and situational scenarios to fine tune my bets each week. Please keep these type of posts coming. As someone relatively new to the handicapping world I appreciate the guideance. BOL this week
Thanks for your comment, I hope this information I took from Allen Moody and posted Rx Forum will help you in your prediction and making bets dealiak, believe me its help me a lot also. Good luck to you on the rest of NFL season.
 

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Mr./H/hat.......great info, write is much appreciated...........looking forward to the power ratings..........BOL with your week end action............indy
 

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Thanks for posting Mr. Hat.

Question, when you win the first bet, then press, is the press bet, double your original bet?

Also, do you use progression betting in craps and/or blackjack? Sorry, off subject, but just wondering.

Thanks again!

Goodluck!
 
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Thanks for posting Mr. Hat.

Question, when you win the first bet, then press, is the press bet, double your original bet?

Also, do you use progression betting in craps and/or blackjack? Sorry, off subject, but just wondering.

Thanks again!

Goodluck!
Yes which is 1st bet I make is my original bet, I double on 2nd bet which in gambling terms is as a press, I have to win both bets. 2nd bet it is worth 3-1 on the money if I win. Win or Lose on second bet, I go back to original bet and start all over. If you can catch a string of wins of which I have done that's posted on RX sports Forum in pressing bets or doubling your original bet, it will overcome some of my losing bets from a percentage point & money management point of view.[ I do not play craps or blackjack and other table games in casino. I am [NFL gambler that handicaps]. I have had about 7 presses so far this season on my bets. 7 presses are worth from a money point view worth 7x3 calculated into 21 game winner on the original bet I wager. This a example I will use if you are a $100 better. $100 original bet on a win goes to $200 on your second bet, which wins $400- $100 you started with is $300 win. You only press if you win your original bet. I hope you can understand this theory my friend, its works for me? Good Luck To You On Rest Of NFL Season My Friend.
 
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Thanks for responding Mr. Hat.

yes, that example is a good one.

do you ever have a original pick that is stronger and others?

one that you'd start your original bet at a higher amount? or are all original bets the same amount?

thanks again!
 

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Yes which is 1st bet I make is my original bet, I double on 2nd bet which in gambling terms is as a press, I have to win both bets. 2nd bet it is worth 3-1 on the money if I win. Win or Lose on second bet, I go back to original bet and start all over. If you can catch a string of wins of which I have done that's posted on RX sports Forum in pressing bets or doubling your original bet, it will overcome some of my losing bets from a percentage point & money management point of view.[ I do not play craps or blackjack and other table games in casino. I am [NFL gambler that handicaps]. I have had about 7 presses so far this season on my bets. 7 presses are worth from a money point view worth 7x3 calculated into 21 game winner on the original bet I wager. This a example I will use if you are a $100 better. $100 original bet on a win goes to $200 on your second bet, which wins $400- $100 you started with is $300 win. You only press if you win your original bet. I hope you can understand this theory my friend, its works for me? Good Luck To You On Rest Of NFL Season My Friend.
I am going to start using this and believe if you play blackjack pressing is the only way you will come out ahead over time time. Thanks for the info and best of luck to you and your crew !
 

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~These Are Three Distinct Techniques of Handicapping~ I Incorporate In My Predictions~

'' Fundamental Handicapping (aka Statistical Handicapping)" Use of statistics, power ratings, and personnel match-up to make selections.Typically, this method of handicapping takes the most consideration into NFL weather report, football injuries, and game time temperature. Since the NFL has fewer games in a season, compared to that of other sports league's the team is less prone to emotional components. This makes statistics more accurate as a team is ready, motivated, and prepared to play each week. However, this does mean there are less statistics to examine.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=70067&d=1403717524

I go through all the games in Excel and estimate many stats including the pts each team will score and the expected line following the 'Fundamental' approach like you do w your Bascus line. That is a good term because 'Fundamental ' stock valuation is using math to predict what a stock price should be vs what the market is pricing it at. The estimations I come up w are usually all pretty close to the Vegas Lines even considering adj for injuries specific to each week.

I'm pretty sure you need to do this because it appears the Vegas line makers are using similar models and math, likely much more sophisticated them my Access reports and Excel spreadsheets.

Each week there really are only a few real discrepancies where you have an edge. One area I find that leads to an edge is teams that have huge hfa advantages but then are ordinary on the road which leads to them being overvalued away. Some teams in this group are: CIN, GB, NO, CHI,SEA, DET, ATL & MIN.
 

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Thanks for your contributions and insight Mr. Hat. Whether I disagree or agree with what you post-- it is certainly a welcomed alternate angle which is something to be treasured around these parts. That, and you do all of this in a respectful manner. Please keep posting and ignoring the haters. Also, don't feed the trolls haha

-donger
 
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Thanks for responding Mr. Hat.

yes, that example is a good one.

do you ever have a original pick that is stronger and others?

one that you'd start your original bet at a higher amount? or are all original bets the same amount?

thanks again!
No my friend all original bets are the same amount. No my picks are not stronger and others? I bet two games. sometimes they are not in same week. Just betting one game at each week [Some exceptions applied Monday & Thursday Night games].
 
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Thanks for your contributions and insight Mr. Hat. Whether I disagree or agree with what you post-- it is certainly a welcomed alternate angle which is something to be treasured around these parts. That, and you do all of this in a respectful manner. Please keep posting and ignoring the haters. Also, don't feed the trolls haha

-donger
Thanks for support Donger and very good luck to you this week in NFL.
 

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What do you do when you see that RUSS is on the same side as you for a game?
 
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The following videos are important information about sports betting from Justin 7 point of view?

I go through all the games in Excel and estimate many stats including the pts each team will score and the expected line following the 'Fundamental' approach like you do w your Bascus line. That is a good term because 'Fundamental ' stock valuation is using math to predict what a stock price should be vs what the market is pricing it at. The estimations I come up w are usually all pretty close to the Vegas Lines even considering adj for injuries specific to each week.

I'm pretty sure you need to do this because it appears the Vegas line makers are using similar models and math, likely much more sophisticated them my Access reports and Excel spreadsheets.

Each week there really are only a few real discrepancies where you have an edge. One area I find that leads to an edge is teams that have huge hfa advantages but then are ordinary on the road which leads to them being overvalued away. Some teams in this group are: CIN, GB, NO, CHI,SEA, DET, ATL & MIN.
Great information on your reply and should be considered, when handicapping games. You seem to be JGM very advanced in your handicapping skills which I just read of your reply. Check out Justin 7 ~OUTSTANDING~Fellow Handicapper And Great Friend of HARRYtheHATS~ The following videos are important information about sports betting from Justin 7 point of view? You better do your homework viewing these videos/ LOL LOL !!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww#t=111
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd3A7ODxhTU
If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term.

PS..... "A another most important fact that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. Like Information that you just provided me with on your reply JGM...Thank you!!!
Hårr¥THëHÄT
 
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Great information on your reply and should be considered, when handicapping games. You seem to be JGM very advanced in your handicapping skills which I just read of your reply. Check out Justin 7 ~OUTSTANDING~Fellow Handicapper And Great Friend of HARRYtheHATS~ The following videos are important information about sports betting from Justin 7 point of view? You better do your homework viewing these videos/ LOL LOL !!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww#t=111
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd3A7ODxhTU
If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term.

PS..... "A another most important fact that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. Like Information that you just provided me with on your reply JGM...Thank you!!!
Hårr¥THëHÄT
This is Bee Bee Black Widow favorite hero from our group[Justin 7] Because of his new school philosophy betting teasers from this video. Rest of our group doesn't believe in teasers, however it works for Bee Bee on his record of wins and that's all that counts.
 

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Great information on your reply and should be considered, when handicapping games. You seem to be JGM very advanced in your handicapping skills which I just read of your reply. Check out Justin 7 ~OUTSTANDING~Fellow Handicapper And Great Friend of HARRYtheHATS~ The following videos are important information about sports betting from Justin 7 point of view? You better do your homework viewing these videos/ LOL LOL !!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89HtJmQgjww#t=111
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP3P9OJvukQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd3A7ODxhTU
If we ambitiously assume we can win 60% of 175 games, for a total of 105 wins and 70 losses, then we should never assume that any individual event within those 175 stands a chance greater than 60% of hitting. There are no guarantees, no “locks” and certainly no promises that any one game will end as predicted. The main point is to trust that the games played are the most advantageous, and will yield the highest result over the long-term.

PS..... "A another most important fact that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. Like Information that you just provided me with on your reply JGM...Thank you!!!
Hårr¥THëHÄT

Thanks for the links and read your posts regularly so thank you in return! Wayne Allen btw mentions Benjamin Graham whose book is really the bible for "Value Investing' and is #1 on many top ten lists for investing. Was written in 1934 and and heavily endorsed by Warren Buffet who follows the principles. Basically do your homework and use math to find undervalued stocks. Usually the opposite of what is happening in the market.

Great video too. Thanks again.
 

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