UNLV +20.5 over HOUSTON
Just because I live in the Nutt, it doesn’t mean I am going on hatin on Houston. Just because I don’t go to spank places in Houston, that doesn’ty mean I am goin hatin on Houston. No..this pick has nothing do with the fact that I live in the Nutt.
This is just way too many points for Houston to be giving anyone. Houston lost their first game to UTSA by the score of 27-7. They beat Grambling, 47-0. That doesn’t mean squat because Grambling is the 114th ranked FCS team. There are only 10 teams worse than Grambling in D1 football. That means a good D3 team will most likely beat Grambling. So throw that game out.
In their last game, BYU beat the crap out of Houston, but Houston had 21 points of lucky scores and only lost 33-25. Trust me, it wasn’t that close.
Now no one likes UNLV because they got smoted by Arizona 58-13, and barely beat Northern Colorado 13-12. But what I like about UNLV is that they put up a good fight against Northern Illinois, a team which is much better than Houston. In that game, UNLV had a furious 4th quarter comeback and threw for 400 yards and was tied with NIU in the 4th quarter before eventually losing 48-34.
In fact, UNLV is averaging 400 yards per game on offense.
If UNLV can put up 34 on NIU, then they can easily score 24 against Houston. That means Houston will have to score 44 to cover. Houston has trouble running the ball. That means they won’t be able to put the game away, and UNLV will have more chances to put their effective passing game to work.
If the best Houston could do was 47 against Grambling, then they’re not going to be able to cover this big line. Take the Rebels and the points. I love the Vegas for $900.
CMU +4 ½ over KANSAS
For some reason, the Kansas Athletic Director has a thing for fat coaches. At least the first fat coach they had was pretty good. The one they have now, Charlie Weis, is terrible. In a recent press conference, Weis called his team a pile of crap. I guess he hasn’t looked in the mirror lately.
First of all, to cover a 4 ½ point spread, by definition you have to win the game – against an FBS opponent. This is something that Kansas has not done this year. Well, they did barely beat SE Missouri State by the score of 34-26. By the way, SE Missouri State is ranked lower than Penn. In their only game against a real opponent, Duke, Kansas lost 41-3. It’s hard to cover 4 ½ points when you only score 3 against Duke (Duke gave up 17 points to Troy and 13 points to Elon)…says a lot about the offensive mastermind of Charlie Weis. Maybe he should put down that hamburger and pick up a playbook?
On the other hand, Central Michigan has been scrappy as all get out. In the opening game, they beat a Chattanooga team, which has a similar power ranking to Kansas, by the score of 20-16. They followed that up with a convincing victory over Purdue (another team with a comparable rating to Kansas) by the score of 38-17.
In order for Kansas to cover this spread, they need to beat CMU. Well, 25 of the 33 computers which follow college football have Central Michigan ranked higher than Kansas. I’ll take those odds…and the points! Central Michigan as the live dog - $800.
Nebraska -7 ½ over Miami
While the Cornhuskers have been playing Jekyll and Hyde all season, the Canes have been playing like they just want to run away and hide. In what looks to be like the Waterloo game for the conference formerly known as the Big 10, Nebraska has a lot of pressure to win this game at home..and win big. The Huskey defense has been playing well, only giving up 16 points per game, which makes covering this spread less challenging. Miami’s most impressive game was a home win against Arkansas St. When they went on the road against a Louisville team (which is not quite as good as Nebraska), Miami really crapped their pants, losing 31-13.
There is no evidence at all to show that Miami will play well on the road, on the contrary there is abundant evidence that they will play poorly. Remember, we’re dealing with a freshman quarterback who will be deer in the headlights in the most hostile environment he’s ever seen in his young career. There is no doubt the Cornhusker defense is going to come after him. Miami coughed up the ball 3 times against Louisville. If they do the same thing against Nebraska, it’s going to be a long night. Louisville ran the ball successfully against Miami and if there’s one thing the Nebraska does well, it’s run the ball. Miami is also missing 5 starters.
I think if Miami were home, I’d be a lot less interested in them. But traveling to Lincoln, where Nebraska and the Big 10 really need this game, you have to wonder if the officials will call it down the line.
I’m laying the wood and taking the Cornhuskers for $800.
5 star pick
Texas A&M -32 over SMU
Like they say in Latin, video est credeo. I was at the Houston Texans parking lot tailgate party a few weeks ago and they had a truck with a big screen TV showing the Texas A&M at South Carolina game. Like everyone else there, I though Texas A&M was gonna get smoted by the nasty Gamecock defense and hostile South Carolina home crowd. What..with the departure of the great Johnny Manziel, how could Texas A&M ever measure up? It didn’t take long to find out that, not only did this team not miss a beat, they are even better than they were last year. Maybe with the exception of Oregon, Texas A&M has the most powerful offense in the country. They can move the ball in big chunks in a number of different ways and their freshman quarterback is simply terrific. South Carolina couldn’t stop them. Didn’t even come close as Texas A&M won the game 52-28. Mind you, this is a South Carolina team which went ahead and defeated both East Carolina and Georgia.
Texas A&M easily beat one of the top teams in the country. What’s even better, in their most recent game, Texas A&M slaughtered Rice 38-10. (Rice is a better team than SMU.) Now we come to the part that’s true. "Guys weren't very happy with how they played tonight," coach Kevin Sumlin said. "In the locker room our guys were ho hum and pretty hard on themselves ... and that's good." "We started off slow," QB Hill said. "We never want to start it off slow. We are going to work on that and fix that and be better next week." What really happened was that Rice was able to keep the ball away from Texas A&M and also their field was in tatters. Neither of this is going to happen this week. Translate this into Texas A&M intends to score about 80 points against SMU.
What’s SMU going to do about it? Nothing, that’s what. SMU is a horror show. They are 0-2 this season and have scored 6 points while giving up 88. They lost to North Texas by the score of 43-6. Their coach quit. Here is the most compelling fact. So far in two games, SMU has a total of -14 yards rushing. What that means is they won’t be able to keep the ball away from the Texas A&M offense. What does Texas A&M do when they have the ball? They score, that’s what they do.
Texas A&M needs to impress the human committee which is pondering whether or not they should invite 2 SEC teams to the playoffs. Games like this count, especially when you go on the road and win big. Even if Texas A&M feels sorry for SMU, they won’t help them score points. They can’t score points. If SMU somehow manages to get 10 points, all Texas A&M needs to do is score 42 points to cover. They scored 52 against South Carolina. End of story.
Lay the wood and laugh to the bank. Aggies for $800
BOISE ST -16 ½ over ULL
While everyone is beginning to sleep in the book, and Scud is getting his teabag pictures for next year’s powerpoints, the very last game on the card ends up being a 4 star pick. Obviously Boise is the superior team here, but there are a number of factors which make this point spread very easy for them to cover. First of all, they are home, and the blue turf has been the demise of many teams coming to Idaho looking for a “W”. Now, Boise lost their opener to Ole Miss, but this is completely irrelevant to the analysis at hand. First of all, Ole Miss is a very good football team and, other than the fact that their student body has a low IQ, they don’t at all resemble Louisiana – Lafayette. Second, Boise was actually very much in that game going into the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter.
More importantly, let’s look at how Boise did against the two teams which more closely resemble ULL. Boise defeated Colorado St 37-24. Colorado State is far superior to ULL. Last week they went on the road to UCONN and beat the Huskies 38-21. UConn and ULL are similar teams, but Boise travelled to Uconn and played in a tough environment and still covered the 16 ½ points. It’s a whole different kettle of fish when ULL travels to Boise.
On the other side of the fence, ULL has been playing miserable football this year. They lost by 28 points to La Tech, a team no where near as good as Boise. They also got hammered by Ole Miss, the same team which struggled with Boise. ULL’s defense is awful. They are giving up 37 points per game. Look for Boise to put up 40+ and cover this one going away in front of their cheering fans.
Lay the points and take Boise for $700
RUBBER BAND GAME
MICHIGAN STATE – 45.5 over Eastern Michigan
The previous 5 star play outlined the horrific nature of what is the SMU football program. Now we come to the part that’s grave. It’s called Eastern Michigan Football….and yes, once again we have a RUBBER BAND GAME to play!
Everyone who follows college football knows that the Big 10 is in shambles. The only way for teams to get respect in the Big 10 is to win out of conference games..and win them convincingly. The way the MAC has beaten the Big 10 teams this season has been downright embarrassing. I have a factual report that the Big 10 Commissioner has “made the call” to the Michigan State AD and told him that they need to show no mercy on Eastern Michigan. It was two long weeks ago that Michigan State went toe to toe with Oregon and lost a tough one on the road. Now they can’t wait to play, and they are home against a week opponent. This time they have something to prove.
In their home opener against Jacksonville State, Michigan State trounced them by the score of 45-7. What’s the big deal with beating an FCS team? This Jacksonville State team is very good. In fact they are about 20 points better than FBS Eastern Michigan. In their two games against FBS opponents, Eastern Michigan has been outscored by the score of 82-3….and they haven’t played anyone any good yet. I am certain that the Michigan State defense will accept nothing less than a shutout. The Spartans held Jacksonville State to 22 yards rushing (in their next game, Jax State put up 285 yards rushing against a very tough Chattanooga team) while putting up almost 600 yards of total offense.
Eastern Michigan had only 7 first downs and 125 yards of total offense against Florida. Against the much weaker Old Dominion, they didn’t do much better – scoring only 3 points. Michigan State has Wyoming next week, so they have no reason to look past this game. Expect them to play as well as they can, while pitching a shutout. Will they score over 50 points? Sure…why not?
Lay the wood and count the touchdowns. I’m expecting a 35-0 halftime score and the JV to tack on 2 more TD’s in the second half. $1000 on the Spartans! TOUSAND!!
Just because I live in the Nutt, it doesn’t mean I am going on hatin on Houston. Just because I don’t go to spank places in Houston, that doesn’ty mean I am goin hatin on Houston. No..this pick has nothing do with the fact that I live in the Nutt.
This is just way too many points for Houston to be giving anyone. Houston lost their first game to UTSA by the score of 27-7. They beat Grambling, 47-0. That doesn’t mean squat because Grambling is the 114th ranked FCS team. There are only 10 teams worse than Grambling in D1 football. That means a good D3 team will most likely beat Grambling. So throw that game out.
In their last game, BYU beat the crap out of Houston, but Houston had 21 points of lucky scores and only lost 33-25. Trust me, it wasn’t that close.
Now no one likes UNLV because they got smoted by Arizona 58-13, and barely beat Northern Colorado 13-12. But what I like about UNLV is that they put up a good fight against Northern Illinois, a team which is much better than Houston. In that game, UNLV had a furious 4th quarter comeback and threw for 400 yards and was tied with NIU in the 4th quarter before eventually losing 48-34.
In fact, UNLV is averaging 400 yards per game on offense.
If UNLV can put up 34 on NIU, then they can easily score 24 against Houston. That means Houston will have to score 44 to cover. Houston has trouble running the ball. That means they won’t be able to put the game away, and UNLV will have more chances to put their effective passing game to work.
If the best Houston could do was 47 against Grambling, then they’re not going to be able to cover this big line. Take the Rebels and the points. I love the Vegas for $900.
| Utah +6 ½ over MICHIGAN Let’s get this out in the open. The Big 10 sucks. Michigan sucks. Notre Dame beat Michigan 31-0. Michigan struggled to put away a Miami OH team which had lost 19 in a row and finally won 34-10. I really have no idea what there is to like about this team. The Wolverines are a mediocre team in a league that is on par with Conference USA. Open the door for Utah to come into the big house. The drinks are on….the house. All Utah has done is put up points. They are averaging 58 points a game, including a 59-27 beatdown of Fresno State. I like teams with this kind of offense, especially if you are going for a late cover. However, I must have been drinking too much water from the Salt Lake. I don’t have to worry about a late cover, the Utes will be a live dog and will most likely send Michigan back to the wishing they were playing West Windsor South next week. Take the 6 ½ points for $1000. While you’re at it, throw in a money line parlay with CMU as the live dogs are most certainly barking!! |
For some reason, the Kansas Athletic Director has a thing for fat coaches. At least the first fat coach they had was pretty good. The one they have now, Charlie Weis, is terrible. In a recent press conference, Weis called his team a pile of crap. I guess he hasn’t looked in the mirror lately.
First of all, to cover a 4 ½ point spread, by definition you have to win the game – against an FBS opponent. This is something that Kansas has not done this year. Well, they did barely beat SE Missouri State by the score of 34-26. By the way, SE Missouri State is ranked lower than Penn. In their only game against a real opponent, Duke, Kansas lost 41-3. It’s hard to cover 4 ½ points when you only score 3 against Duke (Duke gave up 17 points to Troy and 13 points to Elon)…says a lot about the offensive mastermind of Charlie Weis. Maybe he should put down that hamburger and pick up a playbook?
On the other hand, Central Michigan has been scrappy as all get out. In the opening game, they beat a Chattanooga team, which has a similar power ranking to Kansas, by the score of 20-16. They followed that up with a convincing victory over Purdue (another team with a comparable rating to Kansas) by the score of 38-17.
In order for Kansas to cover this spread, they need to beat CMU. Well, 25 of the 33 computers which follow college football have Central Michigan ranked higher than Kansas. I’ll take those odds…and the points! Central Michigan as the live dog - $800.
Nebraska -7 ½ over Miami
While the Cornhuskers have been playing Jekyll and Hyde all season, the Canes have been playing like they just want to run away and hide. In what looks to be like the Waterloo game for the conference formerly known as the Big 10, Nebraska has a lot of pressure to win this game at home..and win big. The Huskey defense has been playing well, only giving up 16 points per game, which makes covering this spread less challenging. Miami’s most impressive game was a home win against Arkansas St. When they went on the road against a Louisville team (which is not quite as good as Nebraska), Miami really crapped their pants, losing 31-13.
There is no evidence at all to show that Miami will play well on the road, on the contrary there is abundant evidence that they will play poorly. Remember, we’re dealing with a freshman quarterback who will be deer in the headlights in the most hostile environment he’s ever seen in his young career. There is no doubt the Cornhusker defense is going to come after him. Miami coughed up the ball 3 times against Louisville. If they do the same thing against Nebraska, it’s going to be a long night. Louisville ran the ball successfully against Miami and if there’s one thing the Nebraska does well, it’s run the ball. Miami is also missing 5 starters.
I think if Miami were home, I’d be a lot less interested in them. But traveling to Lincoln, where Nebraska and the Big 10 really need this game, you have to wonder if the officials will call it down the line.
I’m laying the wood and taking the Cornhuskers for $800.
5 star pick
Texas A&M -32 over SMU
Like they say in Latin, video est credeo. I was at the Houston Texans parking lot tailgate party a few weeks ago and they had a truck with a big screen TV showing the Texas A&M at South Carolina game. Like everyone else there, I though Texas A&M was gonna get smoted by the nasty Gamecock defense and hostile South Carolina home crowd. What..with the departure of the great Johnny Manziel, how could Texas A&M ever measure up? It didn’t take long to find out that, not only did this team not miss a beat, they are even better than they were last year. Maybe with the exception of Oregon, Texas A&M has the most powerful offense in the country. They can move the ball in big chunks in a number of different ways and their freshman quarterback is simply terrific. South Carolina couldn’t stop them. Didn’t even come close as Texas A&M won the game 52-28. Mind you, this is a South Carolina team which went ahead and defeated both East Carolina and Georgia.
Texas A&M easily beat one of the top teams in the country. What’s even better, in their most recent game, Texas A&M slaughtered Rice 38-10. (Rice is a better team than SMU.) Now we come to the part that’s true. "Guys weren't very happy with how they played tonight," coach Kevin Sumlin said. "In the locker room our guys were ho hum and pretty hard on themselves ... and that's good." "We started off slow," QB Hill said. "We never want to start it off slow. We are going to work on that and fix that and be better next week." What really happened was that Rice was able to keep the ball away from Texas A&M and also their field was in tatters. Neither of this is going to happen this week. Translate this into Texas A&M intends to score about 80 points against SMU.
What’s SMU going to do about it? Nothing, that’s what. SMU is a horror show. They are 0-2 this season and have scored 6 points while giving up 88. They lost to North Texas by the score of 43-6. Their coach quit. Here is the most compelling fact. So far in two games, SMU has a total of -14 yards rushing. What that means is they won’t be able to keep the ball away from the Texas A&M offense. What does Texas A&M do when they have the ball? They score, that’s what they do.
Texas A&M needs to impress the human committee which is pondering whether or not they should invite 2 SEC teams to the playoffs. Games like this count, especially when you go on the road and win big. Even if Texas A&M feels sorry for SMU, they won’t help them score points. They can’t score points. If SMU somehow manages to get 10 points, all Texas A&M needs to do is score 42 points to cover. They scored 52 against South Carolina. End of story.
Lay the wood and laugh to the bank. Aggies for $800
BOISE ST -16 ½ over ULL
While everyone is beginning to sleep in the book, and Scud is getting his teabag pictures for next year’s powerpoints, the very last game on the card ends up being a 4 star pick. Obviously Boise is the superior team here, but there are a number of factors which make this point spread very easy for them to cover. First of all, they are home, and the blue turf has been the demise of many teams coming to Idaho looking for a “W”. Now, Boise lost their opener to Ole Miss, but this is completely irrelevant to the analysis at hand. First of all, Ole Miss is a very good football team and, other than the fact that their student body has a low IQ, they don’t at all resemble Louisiana – Lafayette. Second, Boise was actually very much in that game going into the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter.
More importantly, let’s look at how Boise did against the two teams which more closely resemble ULL. Boise defeated Colorado St 37-24. Colorado State is far superior to ULL. Last week they went on the road to UCONN and beat the Huskies 38-21. UConn and ULL are similar teams, but Boise travelled to Uconn and played in a tough environment and still covered the 16 ½ points. It’s a whole different kettle of fish when ULL travels to Boise.
On the other side of the fence, ULL has been playing miserable football this year. They lost by 28 points to La Tech, a team no where near as good as Boise. They also got hammered by Ole Miss, the same team which struggled with Boise. ULL’s defense is awful. They are giving up 37 points per game. Look for Boise to put up 40+ and cover this one going away in front of their cheering fans.
Lay the points and take Boise for $700
RUBBER BAND GAME
MICHIGAN STATE – 45.5 over Eastern Michigan
The previous 5 star play outlined the horrific nature of what is the SMU football program. Now we come to the part that’s grave. It’s called Eastern Michigan Football….and yes, once again we have a RUBBER BAND GAME to play!
Everyone who follows college football knows that the Big 10 is in shambles. The only way for teams to get respect in the Big 10 is to win out of conference games..and win them convincingly. The way the MAC has beaten the Big 10 teams this season has been downright embarrassing. I have a factual report that the Big 10 Commissioner has “made the call” to the Michigan State AD and told him that they need to show no mercy on Eastern Michigan. It was two long weeks ago that Michigan State went toe to toe with Oregon and lost a tough one on the road. Now they can’t wait to play, and they are home against a week opponent. This time they have something to prove.
In their home opener against Jacksonville State, Michigan State trounced them by the score of 45-7. What’s the big deal with beating an FCS team? This Jacksonville State team is very good. In fact they are about 20 points better than FBS Eastern Michigan. In their two games against FBS opponents, Eastern Michigan has been outscored by the score of 82-3….and they haven’t played anyone any good yet. I am certain that the Michigan State defense will accept nothing less than a shutout. The Spartans held Jacksonville State to 22 yards rushing (in their next game, Jax State put up 285 yards rushing against a very tough Chattanooga team) while putting up almost 600 yards of total offense.
Eastern Michigan had only 7 first downs and 125 yards of total offense against Florida. Against the much weaker Old Dominion, they didn’t do much better – scoring only 3 points. Michigan State has Wyoming next week, so they have no reason to look past this game. Expect them to play as well as they can, while pitching a shutout. Will they score over 50 points? Sure…why not?
Lay the wood and count the touchdowns. I’m expecting a 35-0 halftime score and the JV to tack on 2 more TD’s in the second half. $1000 on the Spartans! TOUSAND!!
