Theoretical question if you have money in BetPanam

[JackStraw+]

If you have a balance there and you can come up
with a percentage chance of getting paid. There would be a number where it would be more
profitable to wager the money on the Superbowl
hoping of course that you win. Now if you get paid you would double your money. If you lost then you were no worse off if you never got paid. I believe you would have a considerable edge if you thought there was only a 20-30% chance of getting paid.

 

[batistuta]

I think that a better way of getting paid is to bet one side of the game with them - and the other side for equal money somewhere else.

You have a 50-50 chance of getting paid minus the juice.

Just a desperate thought for desperate times.

 

[mvbski]

Batisuta,dumb idea what happens if all the games win at PanAm and you get the pipe there

all you will get is

 

[batistuta]

i agree mvbski - a risk - but if you think that they ARE going to pay sooner or later but dont want to wait - this is a way to get it now.

there is a risk because you could double your liability with Panam.

GL

 

[jerseymike111]

Bill stated that they need carolina to win the SB
So i don't see how it can help unless you bet carolina there.So they can somewhat balance the action.
Betting on N.E.and then if N.E. covers..it will only make things worse.

 

[DarrylParsons]

The reality of such situations is that the higher your balance there, the smaller percentage of it you can expect to get. If you posted up with $3,000, say, your expectation may look something like this:

Balance band % expectation
------------ -------------
0 - $500 95%
500 - 1000 90%
1000 - 2000 80%
2000 - 3000 65%
3000 - 5000 40%
5000 - 7500 30%
7500 - 10000 20%
over 10000 10%

So if your balance stands at 2500 and you're considering an even money bet of 2000, say, then you are forfeiting a current EV of 1625 (65% of 2500) for a 50% chance of an EV of 450 (95% of 500) and a 50% chance of an EV of 1800 (40% of 4500). Your new EV would be therefore (1800+450)/2 or 1125, which is much less than 1625.

Conclusion: best strategy is to stay put and wait.

 

[batistuta]

But Daryl - you are placing EV's in the 90% range.

What if your EV is 20% in the next month and 80 in the next 6 months. And you need or want the money now - then it becomes a good strategy.

Its all in how you assign the risk and your need for a quick payoff.

 

[tgoodm1]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by batistuta:
I think that a better way of getting paid is to bet one side of the game with them - and the other side for equal money somewhere else.

You have a 50-50 chance of getting paid minus the juice.

Just a desperate thought for desperate times.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yeah, I implemented that same strategy during March Madness last year when I became a little concerned about the safety of my funds at BML Sports. Unfortunately for me, I could only win in my BML account. So at least 3 to 4 dimes went from Olympic to BML Sports. Leaving me with a balance of 6 dimes at BML Sports. Since, I have only been paid out 2 dimes of that amount. And that was post up money. And now they are nowhere to be found.

If you have a bankroll of 50, and it is seems that it may be reduced to 40 because of the BetPanam situation, I can feel your pain. But when you go from real funds of 40 to 30 because of this strategy, all of a sudden you wish you had valued the 40 you knew was there.

It's not worth it.